The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

In case you havent seen this yet

Reuters (Gods, how I despise them...) are reporting that Pasechnikn is replacing the ousted pig Plotniksky.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The security minister of Ukraine’s pro-Russian rebel region of Luhansk said on Friday he was taking over power from regional chief Igor Plotnitsky, who days earlier had said he was facing an attempted armed coup to force him out.

In a video posted on a rebel news portal in Luhansk, the security minister, Leonid Pasechnik, said he was taking over after Plotnitsky resigned for health reasons. But there was no immediate word from Plotnitsky itself.

Luhansk region, along with the neighboring Donetsk region, rebelled against rule from Kiev in 2014 and declared themselves independent. But since then the regions, which are backed by Moscow, have been troubled by infighting that has at times turned violent.

“Today Igor Venediktovich Plotnitsky resigned for health reasons. Multiple war wounds, the effects of blast injuries, took their toll,” Pasechnik said in the video.

“In accordance with his decision, I am taking on the duties of head of the republic until forthcoming elections.”

Earlier this week, armed men in camouflage uniforms blocked access to central streets in the city of Luhansk, capital of the self-proclaimed “People’s Republic of Luhansk.”

Plotnitsky said it was a coup attempt by supporters of Igor Kornet, the rebel region’s interior minister whom he had sacked. But Plotnitsky said he had the situation under control and that the plotters would be dealt with.

Moscow denies having any influence over the rebel regions but multiple separatist leaders have told Reuters Kremlin officials effectively select the rebel leaders. A Kremlin spokesman this week declined to comment on events in Luhansk.

The two self-proclaimed republics are not recognized by Russia or any other nation.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-luhansk/ukraine-rebel-regions-security-minister-says-he-is-new-leader-idUSKBN1DO251

Arent the "rebels" technicaly the loyalists and the "goverment" the rebels?

The-thing-next-door wrote:Arent the "rebels" technicaly the loyalists and the "goverment" the rebels?

That's just the latest in long series of names that we have rotated trough over the years. This one was side-effect of Minsk accord. We all agreed it sounded too cool to pass up.

Whole Ukraine is a colossal mess, don't try to cling on to anything for too long because things get fluid really quickly.

This is interesting, as observed, the ukrops are experiencing shortages not only of artillery ammunition and cannon, but also of small arms and cartridges.

This is more symbolic than anything, but is not insignifcant either, enough arms to arm about a dozen battallions. The cartridges are just a couple truckloads enough only for a a magazine per man per day, or about 10 days fighting.



Vilnius plans to supply Kalashnikov assault rifles, machine guns, mortars, anti-tank weapons and cartridges to Ukraine

The Ministry of Finance and Foreign Affairs will consider until December 4 a draft Cabinet resolution on military assistance to Kiev. Thay they are scraping their armories

"The Government of Lithuania has decided to transfer tangible property worth € 1,931 million with the gratuitous ownership right of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine," the text of the document says.

In particular, Vilnius plans to supply Kiev with more than 7,000 Kalashnikov rifles and 80 machine guns, about 2 million cartridges, mortars and anti-tank weapons.

As noted in the government, at one time, Lithuania spent over € 3 million on the purchase of this weapon.

Earlier, Lithuanian Defense Minister Raymundas Caroblis stated that the country will continue to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine, send its instructors there and promote military reform.

Good reading, it will be very interesting period, until the end of World cup 2018...

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/11/ukraine-invades-2-neutral-villages.html

They won't like this in Kiev

Head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine Hugues Mingarelli does not see an alternative to the Minsk agreements, despite the lack of significant progress.

I see no other way than full compliance and implementation of the Minsk agreements. One can understand the disappointment of certain people, because now we do not see much progress in this direction. But we need to do everything to make the agreements work, and these four million people, involved in the conflict, cease to suffer from it, Channel 5 quoted Mingarelli as saying on Wednesday.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/465681.html

Ammo shortage starting to feel.


I cannot see how they can change artillery calibers, reboring 152mm pieces to take the 155 NATO round seems dubious, and there's nothing to be done with the 122mm, save perhaps inserting a sleeve, wich would be even more complicated. In addition barrels are one thing, changing breechblocks is another more difficult proposition. It would be simpler just to buy or build new guns.





2017-11-30 09:18


, Antimaydan Ukraine

The Ukrainian army ran out of ammunition for artillery systems and sniper rifles. This was broadcast on Channel 5 by adviser to the Minister of Defense and President of Ukraine Yury Biryukov.

According to him, these systems will be transferred to the caliber of NATO countries, and the cartridges for pistols, machine guns and machine guns will suffice for the armed forces for another decade of the war.

"We now have plans for the transfer of artillery systems to the NATO caliber. Talking about the need to move small arms to NATO calibers is a senseless waste of billions of dollars ... We have enough small arms ammunition for decades of shooting war, so there is no economic sense to transfer conventional small arms ammunition to the NATO caliber.

There is a question about sniper complexes - yes, we have run out of SVD, we have run out of sniper rounds, practically. And now there is a transfer of sniper weapons to the NATO caliber. We have a big problem with artillery calibers, and work is under way to translate and prepare for the transition to NATO calibers, "Biryukov said.

Source: www.politnavigator.net

According to this report, the Ukrainian army had to pull back from the two villages they had taken in the grey area bordering Donetsk. The villages are in a low land overlooked by the NAF holding the high ground and causalities got too high.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/12/ukrainian-army-forced-to-retreat-from.html

Strategic survey, posting it here for future reference


America is looking for salvation in the war. Why is Putin calm?



Anti-Maidan news




War in Ukraine





2017-12-04 08:33


Anti-Maidan ,

Russia's domestic policy is determined by US foreign policy. Depending on whether the US policy towards Russia is softer or tougher, the Kremlin's line is being built with respect to measures in the economy, personnel, and propaganda. Reactivity with respect to the US is the most productive strategy: we experience troubles as they arrive. Any advance action is not necessary, since protection may not be adequate to attack.

Depending on what kind of fleet the US will build, Russia's shipbuilding strategy will evolve. The degree of reaction and personnel reforms in Russia depends on which course will win in the United States. Russia is always against the United States playing black and building defense, depending on the actions of America.

Currently, the US is implementing the strategy that was planned for Clinton. The election of Trump did not change anything in the global priorities of the "deep state", which is the true architect of American domestic and foreign policy. In Washington, Trump is forming the military cabinet of the government. The Neocon hawks became Trump's only personnel reserve, because they tied him in the arms and legs and Trump can not resist their organized pressure. Now there are leaks that even quite aggressive Tillerson is surviving the last weeks as head of the State Department due to his lack of aggressiveness. He does not like the majority of the Congress, where Republicans and Democrats see no other way out of the crisis threatening them, except for ever more open military-military pressure on the whole world and on their main deadly enemies: Russia, Iran, North Korea and China. The CIA will come from the CIA, Mike Pompeo, a former Marine and thinking about the world exclusively as a battlefield, will probably be put on the CIA by Tom Cotton, a Republican senator from Congress who is extremely aggressive towards Iran and who receives funding from Israel-related financial and industrial groups and neocons.

"So, what will be the inevitable departure of Tillerson from the post of head of US foreign policy? The open policy of war, tough pressure on Russia, North Korea, Iran and all those who dare to resist the dictates of the agonizing superpower, the power in which, in fact, hawks, "neo-conservatives of the most radical kind, almost the imperialists of the old school.

Of course, the US course toward a total war with the whole world will primarily affect the state of affairs in Ukraine: there the radical Nazis will soon come to power and unleash military operations. It is no accident that Volker called the probability of their beginning close to 80%. This is an open warning to Kiev and Moscow that Washington wants a military aggravation in the Donbass. And what Washington wants is realized in Kiev without delay. The statements of Avakov and other Ukrainian politicians on this subject leave no doubt that Washington needs the war in the next couple of months and it will take place. Its goal is to create such conditions when Russia can no longer refrain from direct intervention in events - even deliveries of weapons to the Donbas by Abkhazia will not help Russia avoid accusations of direct participation in the war in Ukraine. The result will be sanctions against Russia and European companies participating in the Northern Stream 2 and the Turkish flow, a ban on transactions with Russian securities, Putin's accusations of a war crime, and since this coincides with the elections in Russia, Putin's election will be declared illegitimate - an additional argument to this will be given by Washington in the sense that no one recognized Crimea participated in them. Personally, Putin will be suspended by the West in an extremely ambiguous position. In combination with the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT and the February arrivals to the near-Kremlin oligarchy, Washington expects to set fire under Puty land wherever it can step.

But Putin looks completely calm and does not hurry to change the environment urgently. The Kremlin obviously does not plan any response formation of the military administration. Why? Relax and underestimate the danger? This is uncharacteristic for Putin. His flair and reaction have always been very high.

The absence of visible convulsive attempts to respond with mirror gestures from the Kremlin says that Russia is not afraid of all those measures that the US plans to launch. Moreover - they are to some extent even beneficial to Russia.

1. The formation of an overtly aggressive composition of the US government will strengthen the tendency to isolate the US from vassals. They, of course, will be afraid of the hostage situation and will seek separate negotiations with the enemies of the United States, especially such as China, Iran and Russia. The Arabs, Germany, Japan and South Korea will definitely follow this path.

2. A course of tough confrontation should lead to quick results. Only then it makes sense. If the blitzkrieg does not work out - and it does not work out, the war will drag out - then the conflict between the hawks and their enemies within the ruling class of the United States will intensify.

3. The US pressure on Europe, Russia, China and Iran will lead to a split of the European elites among themselves and an increase in their conflict with American elites.

4. The war with North Korea will deprive the US of support to Japan and South Korea. Their conflict with the US will increase. Against its background, consolidation with China will intensify, and, therefore, indirectly with Russia.

5. Disconnecting from SWIFT does not lead Russia to a catastrophe in external calculations. Well, back to the calculations for the old good telex and teletype - as it was always in the USSR. In fact, by telegraph. We will transfer money not in real time, but in two or three days. Uncomfortable, yes, but not fatal. More than we will suffer those who buy gas and oil from us and supply us with all kinds of food and equipment. Mostly it's a vassal of the USA Europe. Imagine what kind of howl will our contractors raise? The same Germany, on which it will strike with terrible force? Add this love of the Germans to the United States? I'm sure it will not. We will conduct something through China. We will create another correspondent network with the participation of other banks. As part of the BRICS integration processes will be greatly strengthened, because everyone will see themselves in the place of Russia and will not want to quietly wait for such happiness. Inside Russia, the calculations will go through the MIR system. So there will be no collapse of the system of calculations. The world is polarized towards the isolation of the United States and the design of a system of anti-American alliances and alliances.

6. Pushing oligarchs will only tear off our elite from the West - repressions and arrests will show them that Russia is safer than in the West. If you still consider that they in Russia generally earn money, then the value of the West as a quiet harbor and completely disappears. Those who completely from Russia will come off and take a position in those trenches will no longer have a relationship with us. For us it is only profitable.

7. Any attempt by the West to press personally on Putin in Russia will only lead to the opposite effect: not to his isolation, but to his overshooting and unprecedented consolidation of the nation around him personally.

8. In Russia, the procedures for isolating the economy from the dollar and Western institutions will have to start.

9. Any fifth column in Russia will, if not destroyed, be placed in a state of siege.

10. The war in Ukraine, even if it will bring military successes in the beginning, will eventually end in a military rout of the current American puppets - with the utmost sympathy for this process of Europe. Which does not need to have on its border instead of Poroshenko Tyagnibok, Biletsky or Turchinov. From the south of Russia in the form of Turkey, nothing is threatened. In Central Asia, frightened baba after Syria will flee to the roof of Putin with the speed of mountain deer. Thus, if the US proceeds from all the available trump cards, then nothing more will be left for blackmail-apart from NATO's direct invasion of Ukraine and the prospect of a direct meeting there with the Russian army. Which will not allow the emergence of NATO at its borders. And because the US is trying to bluff, and not really fight with a nuclear power on the margins of Ukraine - besides the price of the crisis within NATO - the sense of further escalation and the instruments of pressure on Russia are disappearing. Troops can not be entered - it is dangerous. Ukraine is not worth a world nuclear war. Sanctions have already been introduced, they do not critically act on Russia, but their allies from the United States are cut off and it will not go on forever. Dead end.

11. Pressure on Russia, Iran, China and North Korea will create a situation in the US for the war on four fronts. Hitler from the other world with surprise does not stop hiccupping. Even with all due respect to the length, thickness and strength of the American attributes of geopolitical potency, I would overestimate them enough to get involved in such an adventure in the situation in which the United States is now.

All this is in Russia's hands.

The people in the world at first are afraid of the waving baseball bat of the USA, and then will get used. They will start to snarl on the sly. Every action generates opposition. Counteraction creates an innumerable number of response options that can not be calculated. The long-term impact of such uncertainty increases the risk of starting to miss the blows one by one and as a result the world for the US will become worse than the pre-war. The one when they made the decision to run over everyone and thought that they would not get anything for it. And the world, worse than the pre-war, means defeat in the war.

Therefore, in principle, Putin sees no reason to twitch. He is quite calm and sees in each of the listed items a lot of windows of opportunity to strengthen Russia's geopolitical position in the version of confrontation that the US offers the world in its desperate situation.

Because the US has no way out. They resort to force from the fact that they have nothing left. And the whole world has a lot of exits. The number of combinations in which the white Anglo-Saxons begin a power debut and lose, countless, as in a kaleidoscopic tube.

Already, not one analyst with bewilderment described a surprising decline in the intellectual level of American political elites. Yes, they still have an unlimited amount of money, for which they attract an unlimited number of agents in the form of research centers and NGOs, various intellectual products are issued in the form of strategies and reports, the army of highbrow experts still produce mountains of beautiful tables, graphs and schemes, abstruse theories and fascinating concepts.

But the impression is that the real world has nothing to do with what these people write. The world is going somewhere in an incomprehensible direction and all calculations are thrown out by man-hours and wasted money. The situation for the United States is getting worse, the process of degradation of the American elite is gaining momentum and inertia, and in 10 years even scary to guess what the world will look like. In which the United States lost the skill to follow the instructions of Sun Tzu.

The best war is to smash the enemy's plans; on the next place - to break his alliances

This is exactly what the US did and forgot how. Neither the plans, nor the alliances of their enemies, the United States is no longer able to break.

The worst is to besiege fortresses.

But this is what the US is going to do.

This is not the path on which the one who is going to win.

The rule of war is:

- if you have ten times more strength than the enemy, surround him from all sides;

The US has no superiority over its opponents in 10 times.

- if you have five times more strength, attack him;

The US does not have a fivefold superiority.

- if you have twice the strength, undress it;

The US forces are not twice as large as Russia, China and Iran with North Korea. The addition of the military potential of these countries shows the loss of the United States - one China has the size of an economy larger than the American one. On the military plane, however, America loses with the United States in parity, in alliance with Iran and China. NATO will not fight with these countries for the sake of the US - despite the fact that they did not attack the country of NATO, and the NATO country attacked them.

- if the same forces are equal, with him to fight;

The US can fight only with those who are weaker than they are.

- if less force, defend against him;

The US prefers to defend itself in an attack - for which they knowingly lack strength.

- If you have anything worse, you can evade it.

Russia, China and Iran are very good at doing this alone. And the US can not do anything at all. What could be worse for them? They are getting better - they are convinced of this. Therefore, not knowing how to evade, they perfectly know how to run up. On trouble.

Therefore, in principle, Putin is calm. No, he is not relaxed, he is collected and observes, but he does not fuss. Do not worry. Everything that the US is doing, lately turns against them.

It's just that you need to be able to fight properly with a Cyclops.

Source: cont.ws

And view from the side of Ukrainian politics, by the best analyst out there



After Poroshenko. Rostislav Ishchenko



War in Ukraine





2017-12-03 22:33


The Kiev junta , Antimaydan Ukraine

"Minsk agreements are dead," Avakov said. Speaking after him, Gerashchenko said that they were not born. Like, all this was a great Ukrainian deception.
Avakov is a bandit, but Avakov is a politician. Gerashchenko is a jester with a gangster who has long felt himself to be an independent clown. Therefore, Avakov's statements are extrapolated into the future. It does not matter whether we like it or not, we will have to reckon with its vision of the future, as it has a certain (vanishingly small in the global dimension, but significant in Ukraine's scale) resource that allows for some time to influence the formatting of the future. Gerashchenko's speeches satisfy the need for supportive propaganda for socially most marginalized and marginalized sections of the Maidan public.
In general, the cannon fodder of the Maidan is divided into three categories. Euro-oriented "intellectuals", like Evgenia Bilchenko. These people have long understood that the Maidan was a lie from the very beginning. But, firstly, they are so clever, one. Secondly, in addition to the naive girl Zhenya, no one wants to make trouble in that aviary, full of wild monkeys, into which they turned the country, so the blind people are silent. Thirdly, even these, the cleverest, did not understand that the lie of the Maidan was created by them, because the idea of ​​Ukrainian European integration was initially false.

The union of Euro-Romantics with Nazis, oligarchs, bandits and corrupt officials was due to the fact that without the support of the Nazis, bandits, oligarchs and corrupt officials, Euro-Romantics failed to translate their Euro-dream - within the framework of normal democratic procedures, society successfully resisted this. In turn, Euro-Romantics created bandits and Nazis an ideological cover in the form of a declared desire to connect citizens of Ukraine to liberal values ​​and European prosperity.

The second category is the usual Kiev provincial intelligentsia, in connection with the change in the state status of Ukraine, suddenly felt its capitalism and was puzzled by something it never knew (for it was not designed for this purpose). People selected to broadcast and popularize the imperial meanings created by others, wanted to be the creators of imperial meanings themselves, adapting them to the fragments of the empire that remained in their hands. They realized that the Maidan had not led there, that they were in the kingdom of the crooked mirrors. But, because of their limitations, they do not trace the origins of the reigning around the lie to the ideas of the Maidan. For these, the maidan, as a testimony to their ability to decide the fate of the country, is as infallible as for the first group the idea of ​​European integration, as a desire for a brighter future for all mankind.

Finally, there is a third group. These are those who were hired to sit in tents, throw stones and Molotov cocktails, and then shoot (both on the Maidan and in Donbass). They do not see any problems at all. From their point of view, events develop in the right direction, but too slowly, since not all "strongly clever" (who disagree with them, or who they do not understand) are killed. They are waiting for when you can finally feel free to kill everyone who "does not necessarily disagree, just did not like" when they return to the liberty of the first hours after the February coup of 2014, when they were power everywhere they managed to reach .

That's it for this third category hangs Gerashchenko. The Maidan intelligentsia, which belongs to the second category, has already realized that it will not become good soon, yet generally believes in the future victory over Russia and in the possibility of establishing the correct power. But over time this category is being eroded, partly (having risen to generalization and the realization that everything is gone), emigrating (mainly to the West, but who do not have enough space and go to Russia), while the greater part of them, as they become impoverished, roll into the category of militant Maidan marginalitet, thus expanding the audience of Gerashchenko.

So, at least it seems that Gerashchenko in this case partially opposes Avakov (in fact, if the Minsk agreements are dead, then they should have been alive someday, and if they were originally a fraud, then there's nothing to die), in fact it is not so. Just Avakov declares political meanings, and Gerashchenko translates them into the language of marginalitet. But they mean the same thing: soon it will be possible to kill.

Moreover, even though it is about the Minsk agreements, that is, formally the statements of Avakov and their interpretation of Gerashchenko are a threat to the Donbass, in reality, these statements are caused by intra-Ukrainian problems and are aimed specifically at their solution.

What is the Minsk agreement in terms of global game? This recognition by the parties formed on the Ukrainian board (one of several on which the game is played) positional deadlock. The West could not continue to advance in the existing grouping, since there was a real threat of a direct military clash with Russia. The Crimean operation, although it passed without the use of weapons, had a distinct military character and showed that Russia would not retreat before the threat of a military conflict. In turn, Russia could not enter into a counteroffensive, since the political and economic opportunities for influencing the situation were exhausted, and the military format (with a moderate risk of a similar Western response that could be neglected) guaranteed to lead to overstretching the country's economic opportunities and losing the global party to exchange for a piece of ruined territory, with a significant percentage of disloyal people.

In these conditions, the parties tried to return to the original frontiers (with some - Crimea - amendments) and start the party anew. Poroshenko in Minsk was given the opportunity, relying on an international legal document fixing the relevant obligations of Ukraine, ennoble the regime, getting rid of the armed Nazis on the streets. Full implementation of the requirements of Minsk would restore the Ukrainian government to the format of the Yushchenko-Yanukovych era, with one serious amendment. The country had to be re-established on a federative basis. Thus, the Crimean problem was solved (which simply would not have entered the newly created federation), as well as the possibility of another capture of the entire Ukraine according to the scenario of the Maidan (by establishing control over the central government). The redistribution of powers in favor of federal lands would simply shut down Ukrainian nationalism in the Galician reserve. Even Kiev (as the capital) would have lost value to nationalists, since it would no longer provide dominance over the South-Eastern territories.

If after that the West still had a desire to fight for influence in Ukraine, the party could be started anew, in the political, diplomatic and financial-economic formats. But, as we remember, only the European Union participated in the Minsk Agreements (as well as in the Norman format) from the West. The main geopolitical player on the other side of the board (US) chose to keep his hands free.

Until the end of 2015 - early 2016, Washington still considered itself able to win in Ukraine and Syria. Or, at least, win in Syria, due to the preservation of the Ukrainian positional stalemate. Therefore, Poroshenko did not receive enough Western support for the implementation of Minsk. Preservation of the dominant Nazi factor in Ukrainian politics did not allow him (though he himself was afraid to make such an attempt) to use the Russian factor in his favor.

As a result, by the end of 2016 - the beginning of 2017, EU leaders, convinced of Poroshenko's inability to implement the Minsk agreements, lost interest in him, gradually preferring the format of direct negotiations with Russia on a phased settlement of the accumulated problems. By the same time, the position of the United States in the Middle East was seriously weakened, and the Syrian party passed into an endgame in which Russia had such a clear advantage that no one doubted Moscow's ability to bring the game to the final victory.

In the changed global scenario, the almost pawned Ukrainian pawn took some value for Washington. He could no longer defend it, but he kept the hope of exchanging something substantial for some sort of positional concession of Moscow, which would allow to level the situation at a higher level of the game (in the general geopolitical party).

The situation of the American strategy that developed in Ukraine was favorable. After the West stopped supporting Poroshenko, the mayoral opposition, in which almost the entire Ukrainian oligarchy and radical nationalists united, launched a fight for the early removal of Peter Alekseevich. Already in the early spring of 2016, Tymoshenko demanded early parliamentary elections, with the victory at which the authorities had to intercept her. Gradually, this demand was joined by other political forces, and by mid-2017 it was gradually developing into a demand for the resignation of the president and early presidential and parliamentary elections.

The final victory of the opposition was hampered by only one boundary condition: the West refused to recognize the new coup, realizing that the external legitimization of the new government would be virtually impossible, and the space for Russia's maneuvering on the Ukrainian field would expand substantially. In turn, Poroshenko, knowing that there would be no force option, refused to leave voluntarily, in a good way.

In Ukraine, there has been a dual power (in fact, perhaps even tenfold, but we only consider large groups - Poroshenko and the collective opposition - significant from the point of view of the global game), gradually but slowly shifting in favor of the opposition. The opposition could either seize power by force (which was explicitly banned by the West), or else for a long time to wait for the moment when its preponderance becomes so obvious that Poroshenko's agreement or refusal to leave will mean nothing - he can be dislocated legitimately, within the procedure impeachment.

The critical point was the presidential election of 2019. It was clear that no one would voluntarily give the power, no matter how the people voted. It was necessary to have a power resource both to protect the voting results (which the same power resource would provide during the counting) and to force the opponent to accept defeat. The open clash was dangerous for both sides. Therefore, the crisis had to be resolved before the elections.
It was at this point that the US showed a tactical interest in Ukraine. In order to hand over Moscow to Kiev in exchange for serious concessions, it was necessary to arouse Russia's interest in the urgent settlement of the Ukrainian situation. But Moscow could wait calmly. After settling the Syrian crisis in her favor, the overall global situation changed so much that Russia's dominance in the Eastern Europe and Balkans region was established regardless of the desire not only of Washington, Brussels and local capitals, but even regardless of Moscow's desire. It's like the sunrise, which does not depend on whether the cock crowed or not. We see how this is happening now in the Middle East, where the Kremlin does not manage to fend off requests to place a base on the territory of another state, and the queue for the S-400, will soon resemble the queue for Finnish boots in GUM during the USSR.

Thus, Washington needed to intensify the sluggish Ukrainian domestic political crisis, to give the fight dramaticism and accelerate the onset of the denouement. Russia had to understand that it would not have time to deal with Syria before the explosion in Ukraine. Moreover, the acceleration of Ukrainian events led to the fact that local problems could be superimposed on the presidential election campaign of 2018 in Russia. It is clear that they would not abolish Putin's victory, but would introduce a new problem into the topic of the election campaign. In turn, the actualization of the problem during the presidential elections would have a significant impact on public consciousness, and this would limit the possibility of maneuvering the Russian authorities in the Ukrainian direction after the elections.

It was precisely for the sake of speeding up the processes, giving them momentum, that Saakashvili appeared in Ukraine, who allegedly came to defend his right to citizenship in court, but immediately started to overthrow Poroshenko. For the same reason, Kolomoisky's reopening in Geneva took place, which not only has a great resentment for Poroshenko and a desire to avenge the humiliation of March 2015, but also unlimited financial possibilities for implementing his plans.

Outwardly, nothing has changed in Kiev. Poroshenko can not disperse and transplant the opposition (the US prohibits), but the opposition can not take by storm the building of the AP (the US prohibits), only the dynamics of the ongoing processes have accelerated. Roughly speaking, everything happens faster than what would happen if the events developed on their own. If in 2014-2015 the development of intra-Ukrainian confrontation by the Americans was artificially frozen, at this stage they considered it useful to accelerate it.

They had to understand that the processes in Kiev had already gone far enough and a second frost (and even in the conditions when France and Germany had withdrawn from the Ukrainian problem and Eastern Europeans are fanning the crisis hoping to profit from the breakup of Ukraine) is impossible. But, obviously, Washington believed that their arguments would be convincing enough for Russia, and maybe they did not see any other way out of the critical geopolitical situation that they themselves had been driven into.

Several meetings between Surkov and Volcker, as well as Putin's refusal to hold a meeting with Trump without a clearly marked agenda, showed that Moscow was not impressed by the possibility of another Ukrainian coup, which is almost guaranteed to grow into Makhnovshchina. Most likely in the Kremlin believe that the US exaggerates its ability to influence the situation in Ukraine, therefore, even if some compromises are reached, they will not be able to fulfill their part. Moreover, the slipping of the situation in Ukraine into the Makhnovshchina is evident for the last three years, and it was inevitable immediately after the February 2014 coup. Therefore, the Kremlin had to take it into account in the framework of medium-term planning and develop actions to minimize its negative consequences, taking into account all possible variants of the development of events.

I think Volcker recently gave a heartfelt interview about his difficulties in the course of negotiations with Moscow, in which he vaguely marked the end of December, whether as the date of his next meeting with Surkov, or as a deadline, after which the negotiations become meaningless.

Indeed, since January the election campaign in Russia is entering the final (active) stage. If we miss this moment, after the election, the Kiev crisis will be much less relevant for the Kremlin: the president will have six years to solve any problems. Saakashvili said that on December 3 he starts the procedure of "people's impeachment" Poroshenko and promised to complete the process of overthrowing "this huckster" before the New Year.

In the light of the above, Avakov's statement about the "death of Minsk" fits very well into the general scheme of what is happening in Kiev. Minsk is Poroshenko - the "peacemaker", the "human face" of the bloody regime, allegedly trying to stop the war (and he is not given or given). The death of Minsk means that Poroshenko is no longer needed. The possibilities for a peaceful "return of Donbass" have been exhausted, Poroshenko's policy aimed at "colluding with the aggressor" has failed. Now on the proscenium should come out other people who initially advocated a power option. Let me remind you that the "Popular Front", as well as personally Avakov, with Yatseniuk and Turchinov, formed a team of hawks who demanded war not even with the Donbas, but with Russia.

In turn, Gerashchenko's statement that Minsk was originally a lie designed to mobilize the Nazi-bandit marginality under the banner of the "saviors of the nation" from the "Kremlin agent" Poroshenko, also acquires an international sound. Since no one denied it, Kiev admitted that it was not the DNR / LNR, not Moscow, but Paris and Berlin that deceived strategic plans that were deceived by the Minsk agreements.

If Poroshenko had any hopes for external (non-American) support, then the "death of Minsk", which was "a lie," should completely bury these hopes. And he had hopes. Having ridden to Putin and having agreed to exchange captives, Medvedchuk never acts without agreement. His trip was to be authorized by Poroshenko. Indirectly, this is confirmed by its result. The exchange of prisoners in the format of all at all - one of the points of Minsk. And this is the only point that both sides could start fulfilling, without departing from the previously stated positions. In fact, the Kremlin has given Poroshenko almost the last opportunity to demonstrate that Minsk has begun to act.
Judging by the prevailing mood in Kiev, Poroshenko has almost no chance to take advantage of this gift.At least the real negotiations have not yet started, the lists on the exchange of the Ukrainian side is not provided, as time goes on.

In turn, the recent performance of Yekhanurov, in which it called for an in Donbass ethnic cleansing, expelling in Russia (Siberia) all disagree with the Ukrainian order, and the other for a long time deprived of civil rights, is a clear indication that in Kiev even the most moderate politicians rely on radicals. Of course, all this may be an attempt to increase pressure on the US to Moscow, in order to force her to engage in a compromise position on the negotiations. But most of it is still similar to the start of the preparatory phase for the overthrow of Poroshenko hands "perturbed people". When "suddenly" riot breaks out, and the politicians say: "We are innocent. It somehow it happened. "

In any case, every step of the radicalization of Ukrainian opposition, reduces the space available solutions, reducing them to a single "Hto z'їst someone." Pushing the mountain stone, easy to cause an avalanche, but if it is rushed, then stop it almost impossible.

Do Poroshenko chance to hold on to power? Until he at least someone submits, the chance will be. To prevent any upheaval always enough to arrest, internment or kill a few dozen (up to a few hundred) key figures. Protection of these are good, if two dozen. And then, at night it is reduced to a minimum and, according to the Ukrainian tradition, does not expect anything bad. Only three or four hundred people can solve the problem of control of Kiev, a few thousand could decapitate the rebellion throughout Ukraine.

It is necessary only to decide, knowing that, in the first place, and you can play (then killed), and, secondly, that the suppression of this creeping insurgency, will be a prelude to the next, which organizers are far from established Ukrainian policy rules and view of US ambassadors and the EU they will not care. This is the same nourished marginalitet Gerashchenko, which does not allow to heal full life - completely indulge his passion for robbery and murder. But this humanoid, are no longer needed will not Poroshenko nor Avakov, neither Tymoshenko nor Kolomoisky, neither Saakashvili nor "intelligentsia Maidan", with bright faces, four foreign languages and five higher education, or "evrointegratory" nor even the Gerashchenko . They are all "ideological fellows," "will mean to rob."

Rostislav Ishchenko

auslander wrote:Putin accomplished his goal after the coup in Kiev in '14, to whit, DNR/LNR did not fall and Strelkov's "where are all the young men who should be flocking to the colours" young men came roaring back after their 'privat' training on the Russian side of the border, witness Saur Mogileh and the Summer Cauldrons which had Merkel and Golland running to Moskau begging for anything to stop NAF from finishing the destruction of the orc army.

And by the way, Plotnitsky just resigned apparently affective immediately. Means he did not get what he wanted when he ran to Moskau.

auslander wrote:To continue the reply,Firebird, VVP is not the Tsar nor will he ever be nor does he apparently want it. He will run one more time and he will win another term as President. I have no doubts that he, Lavrov and Shoigu are grooming replacements and I would bet more then one each. Never put all your eggs in one basket. At this time, in my opinion, VVP is the premier statesman of our world. Lavrov and Shoigu are every bit as good as VVP in their chosen fields, ergo the troika is, while not unbeatable, a pretty strong group who believe strongly in the rule of law and all three will do and are doing their level best to prevent war. On the other hand, VVP has said more than once, publicly, that one thing he learned growing up on the streets of Leningrad was if he felt he could not get out of a situation without a fight, he would land the first and most telling blow. Enemies of Russia would be well advised to study that statement and understand that, in my opinion, VVP gave them a warning that they should heed and heed well.

As you know from History, not even the Tsar since Ivan Grozny had absolute power, witness how many of them bit the big one before their time. VVP does a careful dance between what he wants to do, what he can do and what he can not do, hence the still almost endemic corruption in Russia although to a great extent this corruption no longer affects most of us ordinary workers and peasants, corruption is more likely to involve purloining funds from State Budgets. Still, there is a steady roll of corrupt politicians and businessmen taking an extended vacation to Bahrain and in some instances Siberia, witness our massively corrupt previous 'governor', read mayor, who got 'promoted' and sent to Siberia couple years ago.

Thanks for your replies. Yeah I follow the claim that Putin had to counter by Atlanticist forces in the organs of power. But I know he's a very smart man, who's been Russia's president for a long time. I also know that long term, he fancies pulling the EU away from its vassal status under Uncle Sham.

What Putin is doing seems to be an extreme "soft power" ploy. Sort of "yes you can go with Uncle Sham but he will only give you misery". But who is he allowing to do this? A bunch of crooks who don't even have acquiescing support of a majority in the Ukrainian region. I can't understand how Yanukovich was terrorised out of office by thinly covered NATO animals. And how that moronic protest rabble was allowed to continue on Maidan Square, let alone be allowed to attack the Parliament etc. Add in the effective banning of the Party of the Regions, and it still doesn't make sense to me.

Surely Russia had far more soft and semi-hard power options available while Yanukovich was still in power? I could imagine Russia fighting a losing battle for control of Canada or Mexico vs the USA. But why should Uncle Sham have any power over a country it doesn't even understand the culture, history or language of? Surely Russian intelligence should have had everything in place to lobby, bribe, blackmail, intimidate, reward all the scumbags in the Rada it needed to. Even Yanukovich wasn't overly Russia leaning. Russia and its nominees should have had full control of the media, of the special forces etc. The Lvovite Nazis are only a fraction of a region of 8 million. Yet they wield huge power. Then there is the bullshit fake "ideology" of a Ukrainian language the so called leaders don't even speak.

Putin also doesn't tend to mention the history of the situation or question the legal validity of an independent Ukraine. Who consented to it or agreed to it? No one really, because the Commonwealth was to be like the USSR or for instance, the Polish Lithuania Commonwealth of the past.

Why had Russia stood by when America flooded the Ukraine with propaganda and lies. It was bad enough in the Baltics. Why didn't Russia do the same in America with say blacks and American Indians who want a separate state, or the Hispanics? That would have caused America to back off. But Russia did very little of this. Putin was 1st elected 17 years ago. And began treating the Ukraine as "neutral" ie "mostly lost", and then even "under enemy control".
Surely the Ukraine should have been a founder of the Eurasian Union along with Belarus and Kaz and the Ru Fedn?

In short, I can't see where Putin fought hard enough pre-Maiden. And I can't see the reason for that. Its not even a criticism of him, I just find it puzzling, especially given the Ukraine's huge dependence on Russia culturally and economically.

With a separate Donbass and Crimea, I'm not overly sure how a pro Russia party can win Ukrainian elections at the moment, given the level of brainwashing thats occurred poisoning Ukrainian minds.

So ok, Putin's idea is soft power. But surely he could have prevented Maiden if resources were diverted from the Russian Fedn, short term?

Ukraine was then and still is now a corrupt basket case but with powerful allies in the 'rich' West who either underestimated the degree or were happy to live with it for the potential gains. Whilst Russia was fully aware of the potential problems but couldn't ignore them as it knew how much money was needed plus there were few counterbalancing gains.

Then look at where we are now. The West has put in $10B+, lost $100B+ in exports, lost Crimea and gained a bankrupt state with a running sore on its eastern border. Russia has lost access to western capital and markets, has lost some imports from Ukraine, is facing a hyped up 'Russia is a threat' campaign but looked what it has gained, a huge move to self sufficiency, at least 1M maybe 2M motivated working and many breeding age immigrants (probably the most important of the gains for the next 30 years) ownership rather than lease of Crimean military installations and the removal of the drain of Ukraine on its finances.

I think Putin, if he realised what the effects would be, pulled a long term blinder on this.

California NG arrived and should be ashamed of themselves. Also, look at the vid of their arrival and the orcs showing off. Please be polite and post your thoughts of the vid.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guEhCfY4m70

There is a lot of shame around. A lot to be found at Russia's high leadership and FSB. Criminally incompetent. You end up with these images.... not the worst by any means from this ongoing debacle.

Warning signs of a Ukrop winter offensive, regardless of scheduled talks between Volcker and Surkov in mid December

What it makes it different is that the warning is unusually specific and preceded by US aerial reconnaissance, as in past occasions, a harbinger of increased combats

https://dninews.com/article/strategic-us-drone-carries-out-long-lasting-reconnaissance-donbass

https://dninews.com/article/dpr-reconnaissance-kiev-hit-all-along-contact-line

This is part of the flight, it then went on a trip round the south of Crimea.

Meanwhile, in cloud cuckoo land, otherwise known as Kiev

Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak has accused Russia of failing to implement the Minsk Agreements and called for the deployment of a UN peacekeeping mission to Donbas.

"I am also displeased with the quality of the implementation of these agreements, but I am convinced that it's very hard to expect Russia to implement the agreements. Unfortunately, the Minsk Agreements don't work, because Russia doesn't want peace in Ukraine, and not because the document is bad or something else. Russia is blocking the implementation of the Minsk Agreements since it wants Ukraine to lose territory and people, and it is working on this," Poltorak said in an interview with the Interfax-Ukraine news agency and the 1+1 television channel.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/467283.html

Oh and just in case you didn't know already Saakashvili is a Russian agent provocateur

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/467321.html

This is what happens when you build lies on lies.

China has cottoned on to the fact that Ukraine is about as wealthy as several of its client states in Africa so is rolling out the beads and baubles to distract their attention whilst they pillage the country. A Russian/Chinese bad/good guy plot?

Long article at http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/467312.html

Ukraine and China celebrate the 25th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations and are reaching the new strategic level of cooperation, which envisages the implementation of joint projects for the total amount of near $7 billion, the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.

Also on the current interfax page are these links which gives you an idea of where China would like this to go.


Ukrgazvydobuvannia signs contracts with two Chinese companies to supply 5 drilling rigs for $30 mln

China proposes completing reactor four of Khmelnytsky NPP using own HPR-1000 technology

Energy Ministry, China's CNNC discuss organization of nuclear fuel production in Ukraine

China's CHEC to start dredging works at Yuzhny port mid-July

Nine more Ukrainian enterprises permitted to export dairy products to China

Ukraine, China approve biosecurity protocols for beet pulp, sunflower meal

China vets Ukrainian frozen beef exports

First aircraft engine assembled in China using Motor Sich technology could be shown by late 2017 -

China's Sany interested in participating in modernization of Ukrainian coal companies

Motor Sich, China's Skyrizon could build aircraft engine plant in China

JohninMK wrote:................
China proposes completing reactor four of Khmelnytsky NPP using own HPR-1000 technology

Energy Ministry, China's CNNC discuss organization of nuclear fuel production in Ukraine
................

Ukrainian ''experts'' operating Chinese reactors, I see no way whatsoever how this could go wrong....

And since when does Ukraine have uranium mines?

PapaDragon wrote:

JohninMK wrote:................
China proposes completing reactor four of Khmelnytsky NPP using own HPR-1000 technology

Energy Ministry, China's CNNC discuss organization of nuclear fuel production in Ukraine
................

Ukrainian ''experts'' operating Chinese reactors, I see no way whatsoever how this could go wrong....

And since when does Ukraine have uranium mines?

My "beads and baubles"

Interesting info from the chervonets blog.

Not only the Ukrainian regime continues drafting soldiers because there are not enough volunteers, wich speaks of considerable casualties in itself, but also means they are not getting any replacements that wya.


In Tarnopol, summing up the results of the autumn draft.

It is known that 20 842 people were to be summoned to the draft commission.

13 061 the draftee did not appear at the conscription site, which is 63%. All the rest either received deferrals or were not subject to conscription.

That is, from Ternopil to the emergency service in the Supreme Armed Forces in the autumn of 2017, none was called upon. For only those who were deferred by law were sent to the military registration and enlistment office.

Kiev police arrested Saakashvili only for the van carrying him getting attacked by a mob who overpowered the police and freed him.

https://southfront.org/war-criminal-ex-georgian-president-freed-from-police-custody-by-mob-in-kiev-after-suicide-stunt/

That good old Law of Unintended Consequences strikes again. On the language issue Hungary is not just blocking Ukraine's moves in the EU but NATO's as well. Eleven NATO countries are not happy!

"Hungary cannot support Ukraine's integration aspirations, so it vetoed the holding of the NATO-Ukraine summit in December," the ministry's press service quoted Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto as saying.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/467642.html

Boeing in the skies over the Donbas was shot down by order from the US


http://antimaydan.info/2017/12/quot_boing_quot_v_nebe_nad_donbassom_sbili_po_prikazu_iz_ssha.html

use google translate and scroll down, for the new theory that explains the conflicting evidence, there were two school of thoughts, a hit by a SAM or by an air to air missile. It was both. Now that makes sense and fits everything together


Double punch


Finally, there were reports that a rod from an air-to-air missile R-60M was found in the wreckage of Boeing. And also at least nine holes in the skin, also characteristic for the operation of the warhead of such a missile ...

However, a shot from the "Buk", too, was. After all, specialists from Almaz-Antey carefully examined the holes in the Boeing skin, left by the explosion of the warheadof the missile. And the holes are fixed trapezoidal and triangular. This is exactly from the 9M38 missile, which was decommissioned in Russia in 1996, and remained in service only in Ukraine and in several foreign countries. And from the striking elements of our missiles were to remain only I-holes, in the form of a butterfly.

By the way, for that matter, today there are no "Buk-M1" installations in Russia at all, we have "Buk-M2" in service.

And what is the result in the end?

And it turns out a terrible picture.

The first thing: someone confident gives the Ukrainian dispatchers an order to take the unfortunate Boeing from its usual route over the peaceful regions of Ukraine and the Sea of ​​Azov to the depths of the belligerent Donbass. And so that he went over the hottest areas - Gorlovka, Yenakiyevo, Shakhtersk, Saur-Mogila - where the very hot fights were going and where, accidentally or fear could shoot any plane. Moreover, Kiev did not hesitate to use aviation to bomb civilian cities.

But the one who conceived the operation did not rely on chance to rely on. The complex Buk-M1 complex was set up in the intersection of the very mobile positions of the militias and the APU, which is precisely the complex, because the Ukrainian prosecutors turned everything with the same fire installation, which all Ukrainian prosecutors did not capture, so you will not destroy the target. And on one of the airfields, the deuce "Su-25" was put on alert.

And when the doomed Malaysian plane went to the designated point, the operation began. "Sukhois" should have been the first to knock down the Boeing, and "Buk" to insure them, on the contrary (more likely) - but the care of such duplication is revealed by the handwriting of the special services.

And that explains everything. And three explosions - rockets from an airplane, missiles with an anti-aircraft missile system and a second "Sukhoi", which was shot down by accident by the elements of the missile from the "Buk"?. And parachutes - hardly two, or even five, as the witnesses said, the eyes have a lot of stress, - but one certainly saw, otherwise they would not say (and they said, by the way, on the camera of an English television channel). And other evidence. And the radar readings. And two kinds of holes in the fuselage of the Boeing.

And most importantly - explains the confusion in the investigation of this flight incident, which is already two and a half years, when the perpetrators were appointed immediately, but it's terrible to put forth frankly "rotten" evidence against them