The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

auslander wrote:

What will actually happen remains to be seen but that's the basic game plan. Already there are some long faces in this AO amongst the visitors who are getting the idea that while they are welcome to return they will not slide right back in to their comfortable and profitable positions. It is interesting to be walking with those involved in the struggle and fighting when they are on R&R down here or recovering from wounds and a vehicle with the AA or AN or VV tag on it stops at the crosswalk to allow us to pass. The look from them as we pointedly look at the car tag and then at the generally well fed driver is priceless. They can't hold our eyes for a second.

Astute observation there. If this episode had ended in say 2016 then what you say would not have occurred but now that there is a clear difference in experience between those who stayed and those who fled all bets are off. If they went now they might well be welcomed back, especially if they have skills or money to invest but as to being accepted into society, mmmmm.

If they go back after the forthcoming battles, well, that's a totally different kettle of fish.

JohninMK wrote:

auslander wrote:

What will actually happen remains to be seen but that's the basic game plan. Already there are some long faces in this AO amongst the visitors who are getting the idea that while they are welcome to return they will not slide right back in to their comfortable and profitable positions. It is interesting to be walking with those involved in the struggle and fighting when they are on R&R down here or recovering from wounds and a vehicle with the AA or AN or VV tag on it stops at the crosswalk to allow us to pass. The look from them as we pointedly look at the car tag and then at the generally well fed driver is priceless. They can't hold our eyes for a second.

Astute observation there. If this episode had ended in say 2016 then what you say would not have occurred but now that there is a clear difference in experience between those who stayed and those who fled all bets are off. If they went now they might well be welcomed back, especially if they have skills or money to invest but as to being accepted into society, mmmmm.

If they go back after the forthcoming battles, well, that's a totally different kettle of fish.

Estimates are we've got 15,000 of them in this city and region now, another 50,000 throughout Krimu. Granted, a percentage are old and/or infirm, but there's plenty of able bodied young men and women down here in addition to the obvious wealthy who are sitting out the war. Everyone can do something up there, REMF's are needed just as much as those who stand in the lines. Far more have fled to mainland Russia. Those we helped to get out, all have been resettled on the mainland and all are doing well. Five husbands were wounded and have recovered and gone back to duty. One husband was killed. His wife and children are doing as well as can be expected. We have arranged for and in addition personally provided additional support for that family.

Any thoughts about this statement?

http://www.fort-russ.com/2018/02/fsb-reacts-to-kremlin-list-by-calling.html

Is this just a personal opinion or is anyone in the government considering this possibility?

GustavoHF wrote:Any thoughts about this statement?

http://www.fort-russ.com/2018/02/fsb-reacts-to-kremlin-list-by-calling.html

Is this just a personal opinion or is anyone in the government considering this possibility?

Let's just say in the government, officials of high positions cannot just randomly say things without having approval. Only nation who is not like that is US due to chaos in the government. That chaos doesn't exist in nations like Russia.

So it's on the mind of most.

miketheterrible wrote:

GustavoHF wrote:Any thoughts about this statement?

http://www.fort-russ.com/2018/02/fsb-reacts-to-kremlin-list-by-calling.html

Is this just a personal opinion or is anyone in the government considering this possibility?

Let's just say in the government, officials of high positions cannot just randomly say things without having approval. Only nation who is not like that is US due to chaos in the government. That chaos doesn't exist in nations like Russia.

So it's on the mind of most.

Well, imho what is really happening is that the Russia Government is trying to gain some time to solve this question.

No way that those Minsk Agreements were signed because VVP trusted in Porkshenko. The question there was to freeze the conflict and to stop the bloodshed.

For me is very clear that the Russian Federation can't afford to have this Ukropistan just next to the door in the long run.

I'm not talking about that old history of brother nations, but about some concrect security reasons.

miketheterrible wrote:

GustavoHF wrote:Any thoughts about this statement?

http://www.fort-russ.com/2018/02/fsb-reacts-to-kremlin-list-by-calling.html

Is this just a personal opinion or is anyone in the government considering this possibility?

Let's just say in the government, officials of high positions cannot just randomly say things without having approval. Only nation who is not like that is US due to chaos in the government. That chaos doesn't exist in nations like Russia.

So it's on the mind of most.

Looks like an opinion to me (the general's that is).

ATLASCUB wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

GustavoHF wrote:Any thoughts about this statement?

http://www.fort-russ.com/2018/02/fsb-reacts-to-kremlin-list-by-calling.html

Is this just a personal opinion or is anyone in the government considering this possibility?

Let's just say in the government, officials of high positions cannot just randomly say things without having approval. Only nation who is not like that is US due to chaos in the government. That chaos doesn't exist in nations like Russia.

So it's on the mind of most.

Looks like an opinion to me (the general's that is).

Generals aren't allowed to give such opinions unless sanctioned to. I know this as I have witness sackings because of opinions expressed but not sanctioned.

GustavoHF wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

GustavoHF wrote:Any thoughts about this statement?

http://www.fort-russ.com/2018/02/fsb-reacts-to-kremlin-list-by-calling.html

Is this just a personal opinion or is anyone in the government considering this possibility?

Let's just say in the government, officials of high positions cannot just randomly say things without having approval. Only nation who is not like that is US due to chaos in the government. That chaos doesn't exist in nations like Russia.

So it's on the mind of most.

Well, imho what is really happening is that the Russia Government is trying to gain some time to solve this question.

No way that those Minsk Agreements were signed because VVP trusted in Porkshenko. The question there was to freeze the conflict and to stop the bloodshed.

For me is very clear that the Russian Federation can't afford to have this Ukropistan just next to the door in the long run.

I'm not talking about that old history of brother nations, but about some concrect security reasons.

The clock is ticking for the Banderite occupation regime in Kiev. They have zero to offer Ukrainians aside from war
and revisionist history. Their economic policy is to cut off all links to Russia without have any substitutes ready to
take up the slack. This is transforming Banderastan into a coconut republic (worse than a banana republic).

Lol.

If it is a plan, then their secrets have been found. If it's a Ruse to get the Novorussians to move people around and then leave a opening, then maybe.

Either way, I don't think they will ever attack full onslaught.

When are the Nazis going to take over? Its been 73 years since we last saw them and I must say the world is rather dull without them and thier intestines all over the place.

It would be great to have them back what better excuse to take over all of eastern europe again.

i remember their was a video uploaded by ukies on the old MP.net 2 days before MH17 being downed a convoy of BUKs moving towards donbass one of the BUKS was the infamous 382 or 182 that was supposed to have shot down MH17

video of BUK from ukies air defense unit near the Donbas ... so much for the ukies claiming they had no BUKs

https://liveuamap.com/en/2018/5-february-video-of-ukrainian-airdefense-unit-at-donbas

Yesterday briefing gave a glimpse on Ukrainian casualties, so I started digging through my archives to connect the dots and analyze the balance of 2 years of positional attrition war

Use google trans to read:

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2018/02/11/febrero-2018-dos-anos-de-guerra-de-desgaste-balance-y-analisis/


in a nutshell: On a quiet month the orks suffer 400 casualties. In a month of heavy fighting, or what passes for it in this low intensity war, there are 2.000 casualties.


Based on the reports collected, during 2016 Ukrops suffered perhaps as high as 20.000 casualties in killed, wounded, and missing, mostly deserters, wich can be easily half the casualties.

Figures for 2017 would be certainly very similar.

At the very lowest estimate, going only by official reports of confirmed losses from Novorussian intelligence, the Ukrops suffer 5.000 (five thousand) killed and wounded (a ratio of 1 to 3) a year. And the Novorussians deliberately minimize the casualties, they do not boast, they just give enough hints to demoralize Ukrainian troops who can connect the dots.

It's not just desertion and discharges after service period wich keep the Ukrainian army from growing, and in fact keep it short of troops from authorized strengths, battlefield attrition is significant, and after two years of grinding is starting to make itself felt.

On top of that we have to add non-combat losses through accidents, suicides, and disease, wich if only a couple thousands a year contribute to the depletion of manpower.

Material losses are low but after two years they must have been significant as well. As seen from the videos of Novorussian artillery, they also lose dozens of artillery pieces and armored vehicles a year. Mechanical wear and tear is taking its toll also.

Thanks Ispan, it kind of looks like this year or never then.

Does this mean anything?


AKHBOR.COM
‏ @AkhborCom
Feb 11

Ukrainian media reports Georgy Makarev - the head of separatist Donbass People's Army - killed in special operation on Feb 8. Makarev fled to Eastern Ukraine in 2016 after a bloody clash in Moscow cemetery left 3 Tajik migrants killed and 30 wounded http://akhbor.com/-p5135-119.htm

Probably inevitable


RFE/RL
‏Verified account @RFERL
10m10 minutes ago

BREAKING: Opposition politician Mikheil Saakashvili has been detained in Kyiv, his associate David Sakvarelidze says. More details to come.

JohninMK wrote:Probably inevitable


RFE/RL
‏Verified account @RFERL
10m10 minutes ago

BREAKING: Opposition politician Mikheil Saakashvili has been detained in Kyiv, his associate David Sakvarelidze says. More details to come.

Latest is that he is now in Warsaw, presumably as some kind of stateless refugee.

Leader of the Movement of New Forces party, ex-president of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili was returned to Poland, the country of his previous stay on Monday. During his detention in Kyiv Ukrainian border guards had to use force, spokesman for the State Border Service of Ukraine Oleh Slobodian has said.

"Regarding the situation with Saakashvili. Today, on February 12, servicemen of the State Border Guard Service together with representatives of the Migration Service and the National Police handed to Saakashvili the relevant authority's resolution on his return to the country of his previous stay. However, during the procedure, law enforcers were attacked by unknown persons from Mikheil Saakashvili's entourage and the border guards were forced to defend themselves," he wrote on Facebook on Monday evening.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/484434.html

JohninMK wrote:Thanks Ispan, it kind of looks like this year or never then.

Well, I have elaborated on a follow up post, elaborating on the attrition war and the three scenarios possible:

- Pacification, war, or attrition

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/2018-escenarios-pacificacion-guerra-o-desgaste/


For Poroshenko time is running out, in 2019 he will have to leave power.


I think it will be never, though I am hoping for war and collapse of the Ukraine regime. After this year, the Ukros will need more money and mass supplies of ammunition and materiel from Poland and perhaps Romania if the war has to be fought on. There are no other ready sources for Soviet weapons.

Ispan wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Thanks Ispan, it kind of looks like this year or never then.

Well, I have elaborated on a follow up post, elaborating on the attrition war and the three scenarios possible:

- Pacification, war, or attrition

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/2018-escenarios-pacificacion-guerra-o-desgaste/


For Poroshenko time is running out, in 2019 he will have to leave power.


I think it will be never, though I am hoping for war and collapse of the Ukraine regime. After this year, the Ukros will need more money and mass supplies of ammunition and materiel from Poland and perhaps Romania if the war has to be fought on. There are no other ready sources for Soviet weapons.

Not sure about Romania, but Poland has hardly anything left.

The "untouchable" military stockpiles have been sold out at very low prices during 2010-2015 period by the German-Ukrainian government-mafia regime from the previous "Civic Platform" government.

Reportedly the entire Polish military has only enough ammunition for a few days of fighting.


Keep in mind that the Polish military partially covers the "Kaliningrad Front" so if it gets robbed of what little ammunition it itself has, then the NATO position will be weakened, at least in that sector.

Also, the population in Poland is very disarmed.

Eastern Slavic children being taught to kill other Eastern Slavic people.

https://www.facebook.com/nbcleftfield/videos/245171872638742/

Is there a better example of how the West won the Cold War? They split the Russians into groups who hate and want to kill each other.

Thanks Odin. I could check wiki, but from what I recall, Poland has still in reserve at least a hundred Gvozdika 122mm SP howitzers. Presumably there are ammo stocks and spares for them as well. And of course T-72 tanks, but it would be a case of robbing Paul to pay Peter (Poroshenko)


Follow up on my casualty analysis. Despite the scarcity of reporting and the feeling that there seems to be a relative lull, that's a mistaken impression out of tightened censorship. Seems 2017 was as bad as 2016, and going strong.


Report from "Mage",

https://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/2221583.html

This week, at the front of the DNR, the number of bombardments increased by 42 times. The total number of shelling was 95 times. On the LNR, the number of bombardments decreased to 14 times.

I recall that the "shelling" is not just one shot. The shelling can last several hours without interruption, during which all small arms, anti-tank, mortar weapons are used. Therefore, one sector of the front can be fired 10 times during the day, and the next five hours without a break and over it was released more grenades, mines and shells than the next.



Hysteria in Kiev: Losses in the Donbas are great, you need to intensify shelling


http://antimaydan.info/2018/02/isterika_v_kieve_poteri_v_donbasse_veliki_nuzhno_usilit_obstrely.html



2018-02-14 08:18


News of Russia , DNR news today. The latest news of the Donetsk People's Republic 2018 , , Antimaydan Ukraine

The Ukrainian army bears numerous losses in the Donbass. This was broadcast on the TV channel 112 said the militant ATO, the leader of the banned in Russia grouping "Brotherhood" Dmitry Korchinsky.

According to him, the military needs to intensify the bombardment of the People's Republic of China and the People's Democratic Republic, while politicians must "blur their eyes" with statements of commitment to the "Minsk agreements".

"No doubt, all Ukrainian civil servants and those who carry, especially the diplomatic mission, must talk about peace, about how" we are striving for peace, that we want a cease-fire, that we want peacekeepers, that we are ready to kneel in any moment, as soon as our Western allies sanction it, as soon as the Russian Federation allows it. " That is, such rhetoric is needed.

But to act under the guise of this rhetoric, we must be tough. After all, we must shoot more.

We are now bearing quite large losses, incidentally, in the Donbass. Over the past two or three months, many dead. Only in the industrial area of ​​Avdeevka for a year, at least, more than 200 killed, not including the wounded, "- said Korchinsky.

Source: www.politnavigator.net

Karl Haushofer wrote:Eastern Slavic children being taught to kill other Eastern Slavic people.

https://www.facebook.com/nbcleftfield/videos/245171872638742/

Is there a better example of how the West won the Cold War? They split the Russians into groups who hate and want to kill each other.

Russia does not need these Slavic hillbillies. Only in Brzezinski's demented mind was Ukraine vital for Russia to have any relevance.
Ukraine is a f*cking epic burden and the best thing ever has happened in the wake of the 2014 Kiev coup. These parasites cut themselves
off from Russia and Russia does not have to subsidize them to the tune of tens of billions of dollars per year. The short term pain of
repatriating vital military production to Russian soil is and will continue to pay off dividends. The coup de grace for these degenerates
will be 2019 when Russia stops shipping gas across Banderastani territory.

kvsm you sure about that?

Ukrainian nationalist fervor is dominant in quite amsll area - only westtern Ukraine and maybe westernized youth in Kiev. The rest of the country does not really care about Russia and areas east of Dnepr are openly pro-Russian.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:kvsm you sure about that?

Ukrainian nationalist fervor is dominant in quite amsll area - only westtern Ukraine and maybe westernized youth in Kiev. The rest of the country does not really care about Russia and areas east of Dnepr are openly pro-Russian.

It is more complex. The younger generation born in the 1980s and 1990s has been worked over nicely to hate Russia. The breakdown
of the Soviet identity has left gaps filled by revisionist history (e.g. the Holodomor "holocaust of Ukrainians", in fact there were forced
collectivization famines in various regions of the USSR and Ukrainians were not the Soviet equivalent of Jewish victims of Nazism.)
I know a Ukrainian family from Crimea, the youngest brother is a Kiev regime supporter. He is at odds with the rest of the family.

After the events in Ukraine, I have stopped believing in good will and charity. Russia has pumped $300 billion into Ukraine since the
1990s and all they got was hate and resentment. If these Ukr f*ckers feel that Russia is stifling them with aid, then they should bugger on
off and support themselves. But these morons actually thought they could get rich NATO to become their new sugar daddy. A
bunch of aggressive welfare bums.