Very interesting analysis, one of the best I have seen. Sobering read
http://antimaydan.info/2018/02/oleg_matvejchev_ukrainskaya_armiya_razbezhitsya_za_dva_dnya.html
Oleg Matveychev: Ukrainian army will run up in two days iev prepares military provocations to disrupt the World Cup in Russia
In an interview with the publication Ukrayina.ru well-known Russian political scientist and political consultant Oleg Matveichev assessed various scenarios for the development of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine
- On the eve of the fourth anniversary of the so-called revolution of dignity, the Kiev regime has visibly intensified in its struggle against domestic political opponents. At the same time, it seems that Petro Poroshenko and his team stop paying attention to Western public opinion. Without special ceremony, for example, Mikhail Saakashvili was expelled from the country ...
- Contradictions are exacerbated, because elections are approaching. President Poroshenko very clearly understands that he is not elected for a second term - neither from the first nor from the second round is it possible. And the best option for him is to cancel the elections altogether, declare a military or state of emergency.
"Right on the level ground?"
- We need a relatively small military provocation - either in the Transnistrian region, which is unlikely, or in the Donbas, which is likely. The script can be very simple. On a narrow section of the front, some forces are concentrated, which, as a result of a sudden offensive, capture five or six settlements of the People's Republic of China and the People's Republic of Germany. Naturally, there is a counteroffensive immediately, and those people who carried out the invasion, capture, start abruptly at the command to retreat to pre-prepared positions, releasing not only these five points that they seized, but also give them ten more. Naturally, the seizure of these ten items will be immediately interpreted by Poroshenko and the world community as Russia's aggression, the seizure of foreign territories by it. In the country, a state of emergency is introduced, while Poroshenko announces his victory - that is, he stopped the invasion, the valiant Ukrainian army stopped the hordes of the enemy. And thwarted Putin's plans to seize Kiev.
Extreme position will mean the transfer of control to a large extent to the army and paramilitary structures, including every Nazi battalion. I will be imposed curfews and other restrictions - especially in the media, social networks and politics. Rallies and meetings will be banned.
All this will make it almost impossible for opposition political activities. Everyone will crouch and be quiet, and they will not understand anything. And the president will become a dictator and will be an iron hand to guide the order he needs, presenting himself as the only subject of any possible agreements - with Americans, Russians, Europeans.
"Can such things be accurately calculated?" Five villages to take, ten to give, a foothold ... And if something goes wrong with them, and if the troops of the republics - themselves or with the help of the Russian army, in kontnaspestenii accidentally grab not a dozen, but hundreds of settlements? And the main thing: it is in any case a lot of blood. Can Poroshenko make such a decision? And will the Americans allow?
- To shed blood or to throw thousands of people to death is for Poroshenko and his colleagues already passed stage. It will be necessary - they will do it again. It's more difficult with Americans. The deportation of Saakashvili and other actions is just Poroshenko's struggle with the American project. He wants to get out of Washington's control, untie his hands. It removes people who disturb public opinion, increase its anti-rating, intensify protest moods in society, prepare the ground for its overthrow or defeat in elections. But some of his opponents are supported by Americans.
- Well, it's clear, Americans lay eggs on different baskets. Petro Poroshenko does not need such competition. However, it seems to me that they will not refuse him support, as long as he is active on the anti-Russian front.
"They will not refuse." And Poroshenko will try to convince the Americans to allow him big provocations against Russia. For example, to break the World Cup, which would be very much like Washington. If he holds a combination, which we have already described, on the eve of the championship, will expose Russia as an aggressor and invader, provoke a boycott. And under the noise and at his own martial law ...
- So you admit the possibility of a sharp aggravation of the military situation in the Donbass in the spring? After all, the finals of the world football championship begin in May?
- I am sure that Kiev is now doing everything to allow the Americans to approve, accept this adventure. Apparently, this approval will not be. Because Vladislav Surkov warned Kurt Volcker very clearly that any attempt to call on the LNR-DPR will end with the gigantic defeat of the entire Ukrainian army and the creation of Novorossia. And the whole Ukrainian project will fail. Of course, they are not very interested in this. Hence the theme with the international peacekeeping operation, which the Americans are actively promoting.
- But if Washington does not allow Kiev to go on military provocations and, accordingly, to include an emergency regime, then Petro Poroshenko and his associates will have to go to the polls, with a high probability of losing them and withdrawing from the scene. The whole team - Yatsenyuk, Avakov, Turchinov, Parubiy, Lutsenko and others - is completely discredited, and the next government will definitely sue them.
"We can expect a lot of things here, including major falsifications, intimidation, and eliminating competitors, including physical elimination, and links with the most radical nationalist forces. It is possible to declare martial law in certain regions, deprive electoral rights of residents of entire regions - on suspicion of pro-Russian sentiments. In any case, they will fight to the last, because otherwise they will have to flee the country - to the same America.
Press Service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / Ruslan Linnik, Mykola Lazarenko
- And if Kiev still does not listen to the Americans, how did the Georgian President Saakashvili not listen to and attack South Ossetia in 2008, fired Russian peacekeepers? But Ukraine is much more dangerous and stronger than Georgia.
- They are already beginning to believe that they have a strong army. The fact that they are now actively armed, trained, receive all kinds of "Javelins", can turn a head and lead into temptation. In fact, of course, all this power is absolutely ridiculous. First, there is absolutely no aviation, there is still a lot of what is needed in modern warfare. All this power will end within two days, it will simply run up or be destroyed in boilers.
"Is this an almost desirable option for us?"
- No, our desirable option, Russian, strategic - full freezing of the conflict. All that is as it is now, let it remain. They are elected, re-elected, Poroshenko will remain or someone else will come to power, Trump will think of something - it does not matter. Let the whole situation last as long as it takes to digest this, go from the boiling point. It went away until Russia could otherwise look at this problem, and otherwise it would be solved - as a result of the growth of intra-Ukrainian, American, European problems, or something else. Life will prompt solutions.
- So you think that time is working for us. And they think they are on them. Ukraine is rapidly militarizing, arming, new generations are being brought up in the spirit of anti-Russian jihad and revenge. In a few years, they and planes can appear, and everything else ...
"They will not have airplanes." Yes, and "Javelins" - pure bluff. It is impossible to turn the Zaporozhye into a Mercedes. You can hang on it some spoilers, beautiful rainbow lanterns, something else, but it's impossible to do anything with this mythical Ukrainian army, which has lagged behind for two generations, and continues to lag behind.
Poroshenko plays with fire, bluffs, but he does not need a real war. He understands no worse than Americans, and they explained to him that the war is fraught with the fact that he will lose everything. Imagine even the most beautiful dream of Ukrainian nationalists, that they took and captured Luhansk or Donetsk immediately. Does Poroshenko really fail to understand that in this situation he has put Moscow in a position of complete loss of face, while Russia has absolutely every means to return not only Lugansk and Donetsk, but Kiev as well. Well, Kiev is not needed, but it's easy to get to Odessa to connect with Transnistria, to make Novorossia.
- Or maybe they believe that Putin will not do something that they can cause unacceptable damage to the Russian army during the operation?
"The whole army will simply run away." We do not have the risk that there will be some military resistance - there is too much difference in the level of military technology. And the fact that we need to bear this territory for social and economic responsibility, to which we are not ready.
RIA Novosti, Stringer | Go to the photobank
"And at least for this reason, we must do everything possible to prevent a military scenario." And such things as diplomacy, information policy, impact on public opinion in Ukraine, all this "soft power" - are they already irrelevant?
"For twenty years I have been saying that it is necessary to conduct active work with the people of Ukraine, to use" soft power ". I wrote several books on this topic.
- Well, and how now can we influence public opinion in Ukraine - or is it impossible?
"It's possible, but so far it's quite different." That is vice versa. This Ukraine is actively working for the Russian audience. Under the direction of the Ukrainian Ministry of Information Policy, more than 80,000 people work. On the Internet, they appear to be residents of Moscow, Crimea, Kaliningrad, other Russian cities and regions, tell how badly they live, criticize the Russian authorities, support and help spur all actions of our internal opposition. They are organized groups, they registered about 20 thousand accounts, and these are live accounts, not bots. This is mainly done by students and for very little money. Themes and tasks are obtained from a single content center. That is, they conduct a civilian information war in Russia, being economically much weaker.
- And who hinders us?
- Nobody interferes. We could act much more powerfully and effectively. Why is this not done? The answer is the same as ten and twenty years ago.
Because Russia is engaged in itself, and proceeds from the fact that if we are rich, wonderful and successful, then Ukraine itself will reach out to us. And it is artificial to do something there - it's a waste of time. I do not agree with this position, because the losses of the same Gazprom as a result of all these gas wars are much greater than what we could spend on any PR actions. But even now the position is the same.
However, if we talk about reducing the likelihood of a direct military conflict with Ukraine, we do not need to re-educate all the people, we need to give clear and unambiguous warning signals to the gang that now heads the country.
Source: ukraina.ru
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