Despite the anti Russian campaign that has been successfully waged by the west and those in the Ukraine who have long hated Russia for whatever reason, the Ukraines economy was largely built around trade and cooperation with Russia, and I really don't think the countries of the EU and NATO want to boost the level of trade with the Ukraine to get them anywhere near the level they had with Russia.
Implying that was ever the plan? Don’t think so. Pretty sure the plan was always from the get go to stop a Russian led Economic Union of sorts (similar to the EU in ways) at its infancy. This alignment would not only be a direct threat to the EU itself but long-term to the Anglo-block. By throwing a monkey wrench at Ukraine you achieve this partially. All parties benefited from settling their stooges in Kiev, and some in the Ukranian oligarch club (not all) were more than happy to sign up - knowing full well what’s going on – one thing they’re not is “stupid”. But I could write a small case study on the multitude of objectives a putsch such as this achieved and what it was designed to do. Hard to keep brevity.
The US has lost interest in the Ukraine because they break countries and don't build them up any more like they used to... compare West Germany and Japan with Iraq and Afghanistan...
I don’t think they’ve lost interest one bit. That you have a rotating manager (Trump president) that was never insightful on grand strategy (and perhaps disagree with Ukraine’s case) does not mean that American strategist that engineered this baby are not interested in the growth of their child (and these people have more pull than Trump – large evidence trial for this).
As observers we project too much on how ”interest” is defined. With that in mind I think the U.S is happy where they are and they’ve committed a lot of capital towards Ukraine (diplomatic, economic, strategic). That conditions and the overall situation is not optimal is factored in the equation. To expect otherwise is to be naïve. They’ve also been remarkably patient playing a game of chickens with the Russians....avoiding to overplay their victory.
They don't want to foot the bill to fix the Ukraine and if the Ukraine joins NATO or the EU it will need a lot of fixing.
They’re footing the bill – it’s called the IMF. Obviously they want some strings attached so these "handouts" come as debt and not carte-blanche free aid but the main beneficiaries – the oligarchs, always take their free cut (It’s for that cut that they’ve whored the country ). The people well - foot the bill. If it works out – great, if it doesn’t – bankruptcy and some salvage for the creditors (aka pillage). Plus many other deals we’ll never know about.
Free-aid of the kind the U.S hands to other select nations would signify a significant level of trust and stability. First Ukranian oligarchs are not trustworthy – if they backstabbed Russia they can easily backstab Americans – thus IMF. Second, Ukraine isn’t stable at all – part of the process.
The Ukraine wont be allowed to join either of those organisations while there are territorial disputes outstanding... so Crimea on its own is enough unless they renounce possession, and I think NATO still secretly covets Sevastopol as a new NATO base on the Black Sea.
You’re giving NATO’s rules too much weight. Look at Yugoslavia and the three stooges for a case study on the bending of NATO rules….please….
Here is what we can agree – as it currently stands the U.S isn’t willing to take the step to include Ukraine in NATO – obviously they have a gazillion reasons but it’s certainly not for their lack of desire. There are many permutations that still can take shape to include, some, or part of the Ukraine in NATO (successor/succesors states) - plenty of which the U.S is probably contemplating. I will say however, that at the end of this dilemma, there is a high likelihood some slice of Ukraine becomes part of NATO (however many years it takes). I’m certain of this for the simple fact that the Russians have shown complete incompetence and inability in handling these situations and effectively outcompeting the anglo's at the chess game. That is to say, the chance is slim Russia can regain the whole of Ukraine back in a 180 pivot.
As for Crimea – just cause Russia was forced to annex it successfully doesn’t mean it’s a deal breaker for the Anglo’s. Plenty of coast line to park some ships. Not that having a Naval base is that huge of a deal. The U.S has an infinite list of options from which to target Russia from the Sea. The Land was always the most valuable prize.
No matter who starts a new conflict Russia will get the blame from the western media and in a couple of years time some European organisation will determine that the Ukraine started it but that will be largely ignored in the west anyway.
No one cares. Politicking.
The fact is that there is fighting in the region.
Yes – by design. Harms Russia much more than any other player.
Another fact often ignored by everyone is that the original coup was not even against a pro Russian president... his crime wasn't that he was pro Russian... his crime was he was choosing the Russian/China deal over the EU deal, but he could hardly be considered Russia friendly except in comparison.
There is no crime here. This is merely a competition that manifest itself in this manner between big powers. The U.S isn’t gonna allow Russia regain a semblance of imperial strength unchallenged so that it could later challenge the U.S is much better form and terms. You attack hard and fast when the conditions are in your favor, and you don’t let up. The U.S already made a devil’s pact with the Chinese back in the days of the Sino-Soviet split and that certainly had a cost. Putin and his cadre got played like 2 year olds – that’s the only fact.
At the end of the day if the Ukraine attacks, then the districts they attack will defend themselves... questions about who attacks who will be interesting in the sense of what reactions from other areas result... generally it seems that when Kiev attacks one area the other areas in Kievs list don't seem to rise up in support against Kiev until they are attacked... in other words there is no unified defence.
Well Yes there is a lack of leadership, to be expected. The Ukie Junta has cracked down hard and objectively very well. No one’s gonna risk their collective necks when Russia jumps through an infinite number of hoops to avoid getting its hands
disgustingly dirty (emphasis on disgustingly) - fact
As far as Russia is concerned this is an issue for the Ukraine, which is as it should be, but Putin has said he wont do nothing if Russian citizens are threatened, but he hasn't said he would invade either.
Lol please…. The Ukranian conflict involves almost all of the big powers in the world. Chinese participation is the only laggard. The EU, the Anglo’s (five-eyes) and Russia all have major stakes and are all playing the chess game – don’t kid. Russia is the power with the most at stake. It's the equivalent of Germany having a Frexit or the U.S losing Canada to a puppet Russian government...please... Russia has been propagandized as a pariah state, sanctioned to hell and back, its currency raided, its grand strategic plants derailed (of which they've had to amend)...... hehe....endless list.
Putin is bullshitting just like any other politician. It’s true that unlike some of his western counterparts he doesn’t come off as a vulgar serial liar – he’s skilled, but he lies just the same and he’s good at it when he has to.
Russia will not invade Ukraine because it’s a costly endeavor on a multitude of ways. Invading Ukraine is a quagmire that would leave Afghanistan in the kiddies table. So when considering all of the options the “DO NOT INVADE” option has a fine way of coming out on top almost every time. Easiest route to take - but painful still.
Lets consider that there is truth in the fact that Russia is better served to respond to the U.S by having stability to grow economically and to pour the majority of the countries resources in this direction.
Overall, a plethora of reasons ….
Putin is a very smart guy, and I suspect he has his red lines and plans in place and I rather suspect a stupid move from Kiev will actually benefit Russia the way it has done in the past.
You don’t get to be the president of Russia if you’re not smart. There are however different levels of managerial talent within that exclusive Presidential club.
I think it’s pretty clear that Putin’s red lines are as convenient as his follower’s level of belief in them. If there is seeming inaction to a specific, successful Anglo attack on Russian interests it’s thus convenient to assume for Putin followers that no red line was crossed. If Putin reacts: red line folks….red line!!!
I think if we move beyond the childish cop out to defend his stature we can find that Russian red lines are usually Russian strategic interests. Ukraine falling to a coup d’etat (and imploding) is as big of a Russian red line as there is. Retaking Crimea and aiding some separatism in the East was the poor fall-back plan for what was an otherwise disastrous first plan of defense (the deals). He and his cadre got played by the anglo’s and euros plain and simple.
The whole of Ukraine is a big fat red line, for after Ukraine, there is literally no line to cross – Russia’s enemies will already be inside Russia proper. Hell of a job…
As for Kiev screwing up a move here or there – as long as it’s rather inconsequential. I think in my previous post I stated what I thought of the rumored offensive. Too many permutations to get a 100% read on outcome.
I think it’s pretty clear however, that the Kiev junta has done a hell of a job on Russia, much more so than Russia could do them…. after all what do does this junta has at stake? Their careers?
If this Junta had to think about their well-being, with the threat of death, or perhaps the loss of fortune for them and their family (the latest freeze is kiddies gloves), the fear of criminal persecution worldwide etc.... maybe then and only then would some (not all) rethink fucking Russia sideways. Until then... they're merely kids playing in a playground throwing rocks at a nearby establishment (with no police). They know full well the limits of Russia's reach in certain areas, while Russia handicaps itself in others - end result - they don't fear Putin and cadre one bit.
Put the fear in them Putin!!!
After all isn't Putin fond of the adage that says "if you're accused or labeled wrongly of something, then go out there and earn the label".. or something like that - in one of his talks?
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