The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

Implying that was ever the plan? Don’t think so. Pretty sure the plan was always from the get go to stop a Russian led Economic Union of sorts (similar to the EU in ways) at its infancy.

Well that is ironic to start with... the Ukraine was never the land of milk and honey... removing it from Russias sphere was really only important in the sense that it would eventually cost them their lease on Sevastopol. Whether the US overthrew the government or not, they were not very friendly to Russia anyway... they actively helped Georgia in 2008 and did pretty much anything they could to sabotage Russian exports of shared products like T-80 tanks and Antonovs.

Now they are Europes problem... so win for Russia.

This alignment would not only be a direct threat to the EU itself but long-term to the Anglo-block. By throwing a monkey wrench at Ukraine you achieve this partially. All parties benefited from settling their stooges in Kiev, and some in the Ukranian oligarch club (not all) were more than happy to sign up - knowing full well what’s going on – one thing they’re not is “stupid”. But I could write a small case study on the multitude of objectives a putsch such as this achieved and what it was designed to do. Hard to keep brevity.

The Ukraine in 2013 was no where near being friendly to Russia... the US coup just removed the legitimate government from power and put some criminals in there... I mean just look at your own country... which ever one it might be and think about the idiots running the place... and imagine the US pays for a coup and a mish mash of the dregs that would never in a million years get in on their own merits took charge for a period... the situation now is that most of them will be guilty of so many crimes they wont want a fair election because they will not only lose power... they will likely also be prosecuted and put in jail.

Bad shit is coming for the Ukraine... the only question is... will Russia be silly enough to get dragged into it, or will they just stand back and let them destroy themselves...

I don’t think they’ve lost interest one bit. That you have a rotating manager (Trump president) that was never insightful on grand strategy (and perhaps disagree with Ukraine’s case) does not mean that American strategist that engineered this baby are not interested in the growth of their child (and these people have more pull than Trump – large evidence trial for this).

At the end of the day chaos in the Ukraine does not really hurt Russia.... in fact I suspect they gained a few good engineers and professionals in the bargain.

The Ukraine was never going to be best buddies... the west has engineered that.

They’ve also been remarkably patient playing a game of chickens with the Russians....avoiding to overplay their victory.

What victory?

They have won a basket case country run by nazis that has no value whatsoever except that it offers another border with Russia... which means any US troops based there can call their camp ground zero.

They’re footing the bill – it’s called the IMF.

Hahahahaha... you think the IMF is a charity?

All funds will need to be paid back by the Ukrainian people which will keep them poor for the foreseeable future no matter what miracles occur.

That is to say, the chance is slim Russia can regain the whole of Ukraine back in a 180 pivot.

Russia would lose if it "got" the Ukraine... it is a loser basket case that needs a wet nurse more than "democracy". They make American voters look smart.

Splitting it is the best option for Russia if those regions agree by referendum... that would secure decent land access to the Crimea and also the sea of Azov... the rest of the country can go fuck itself.

As for Crimea – just cause Russia was forced to annex it successfully doesn’t mean it’s a deal breaker for the Anglo’s. Plenty of coast line to park some ships. Not that having a Naval base is that huge of a deal. The U.S has an infinite list of options from which to target Russia from the Sea. The Land was always the most valuable prize.

Are you kidding... it was not about a place to base their ships... they have bitches in eastern europe for that... it was about kicking the Russians out of Sevastopol... and they failed.

Worse than failed it totally backfired...

Yes – by design. Harms Russia much more than any other player.

Why... do you think Russia still listens to the wests complaints about Russian aggression any more?

There is no crime here. This is merely a competition that manifest itself in this manner between big powers.

No crime here?... how many innocent Ukrainians have been brutally murdered because of these American ?

Now the americans have proven not only will they support head chopping ISIS terrorists, they will also support people burning Nazis when it is in their interests to do so... Americas name is dirt, there is no question about this.

Where is Nuland handing out cookies to the yellow jackets in France?

Putin and his cadre got played like 2 year olds – that’s the only fact.

The world sees the US murder and threaten and sanction and bomb... we know who the bad guys are.

Well Yes there is a lack of leadership, to be expected. The Ukie Junta has cracked down hard and objectively very well. No one’s gonna risk their collective necks when Russia jumps through an infinite number of hoops to avoid getting its hands disgustingly dirty (emphasis on disgustingly) - fact

Why should Russia raise a finger to help these people if they wont help themselves?

It's the equivalent of Germany having a Frexit or the U.S losing Canada to a puppet Russian government...please... Russia has been propagandized as a pariah state, sanctioned to hell and back, its currency raided, its grand strategic plants derailed (of which they've had to amend)...... hehe....endless list.

And not only growing stronger but also gaining allies from all sorts of unexpected places.

Russia will not invade Ukraine because it’s a costly endeavor on a multitude of ways. Invading Ukraine is a quagmire that would leave Afghanistan in the kiddies table. So when considering all of the options the “DO NOT INVADE” option has a fine way of coming out on top almost every time. Easiest route to take - but painful still.

First of all that is just bullshit. Afghanistan has real fighters who will put up with a lot of shit to protect their land... Ukrainians would likely surrender when the gas gets turned off... the military force Kiev sent to defeat the so called rebels was thrashed... by barely equipped rebels with spine. But all this US and UK training they have had... yeah right... might raise them to the level of Georgian troops in 2008?

Lets consider that there is truth in the fact that Russia is better served to respond to the U.S by having stability to grow economically and to pour the majority of the countries resources in this direction.
Overall, a plethora of reasons ….

Or perhaps the next leader after Putin might not be so passive and might start acting against the west... there are plenty of buttons they could push to piss the west off in the same way the west is currently actively doing to Russia... would the west like some of its own medicine?

Retaking Crimea and aiding some separatism in the East was the poor fall-back plan for what was an otherwise disastrous first plan of defense (the deals). He and his cadre got played by the anglo’s and euros plain and simple.

...Americans paid for a coup in the Ukraine that has killed a large number of people and you blame Putin... really?

The whole of Ukraine is a big fat red line, for after Ukraine, there is literally no line to cross – Russia’s enemies will already be inside Russia proper. Hell of a job…

Took about 15 years before the US found out the real cost of its withdrawal from the ABM treaty... in addition to the S-400 and S-500 which would have violated said treaty of course... NATO is already powerful enough that moving it the width of the Ukraine closer to Russia makes no difference at all really... it just means the heat from the detonations will feel a little warmer...

I think it’s pretty clear however, that the Kiev junta has done a hell of a job on Russia, much more so than Russia could do them…. after all what do does this junta has at stake? Their careers?

And what have they done to Russia... refused to sell them engine parts, refused to trade with their main former trade partner... yeah Russia is crushed I am sure.
They are only making Russia more independent and stronger.

When they get voted out they will move to the US or the UK with as much money as they can take and live a wealthy life in the west... mostly paid for via the west, and repaid by the Ukrainian people... Saakashvili times a thousand.... except he was responsible for less death and destruction ironically.

Put the fear in them Putin!!!

Why?

The IMF will get their money back, one way or another... and most of the population is either anti Russian or too scared to say so... so what value would they add to a Russian empire... let the cowards join the EU and let them foot the bill to rebuild and restore.

After all isn't Putin fond of the adage that says "if you're accused or labeled wrongly of something, then go out there and earn the label".. or something like that - in one of his talks?

No.


What Russia needs to realise is that it has all the resources and talent it needs... screw the foreign investment shit.... investors expect returns... they end up taking money out of your economy... they are doing it to help themselves, not to help you.

The west is the enemy.

On Christmas Eve & Day (Western Christmas date), even if they celebrate Christmas in early January (Orthodox Christmas), for them to do that basically means they don't care if the soldiers have families or not. Talk about demoralization.

Do you think they ever cared about anyone but themselves?

As I said before, with no international sporting event to hide an attack behind it will come down to christmas or new year...

Ukraine is a perfect case of decades of mismanagement – the land itself (and its geographical location) is, to say the least, rich.

But currently occupied by a people with their hand out and a chip on their shoulder...

It is a package deal... you don't get one without the other... and lets face it... Russia doesn't need any more land... certainly not with all those problems.

Going off on a rant about decades of mismanagement does not mean the lands and its location are not valuable.

To get the value, you would need a lot of work, and a lot of investment... it would cost Russia trillions to get the Ukraine out of the hole it is in and I very much doubt they would get much in the way of gratitude for it... during most of the Soviet period the Baltic states and the Ukraine did pretty well in things but everything was still Russias fault in the end...

Russia itself was a basket case for the longest time – oligarchs running amok stealing, scheming and destroying everything in their path (and so were many decades in Soviet times as well).

Quite right, which suggests there is potential for the Ukraine to turn it around themselves, but why would Russia take on that burden with all this hate and treachery?

They could fix the Ukraine over the next 10-15 years and then the west turns them against them and they have another coup... and it will all be for nothing.

Russia stuck by the Ukraine for 15 years... they kept buying components and engines and all sorts of products... it was the Ukraine that cut them off... something they are now paying a price for.

You understand and have seen how hard it has been for Russia to pull out of the hole and there’s always the threat of receding to those dark days.

Chance of receding? It is the destination the west wants to push Russia towards... when it is weak, it is easier to break up and devour.

so they've receded to worse and as is the case in Ukraine, become victims to geopolitical games by Russia's eternal rivals - compounding their "bad" luck.

If you mean Georgia, then I agree, though Georgia is not in the shithole that the Ukraine is rushing towards, but it is singing the same battle song.

They have made their beds and now they can lie in them.

Ukraine was part of Imperial Russia and part of the Soviet Union. Like "adorable" Putin says “one people”. How are they Europe’s problem exactly?

What Putin says is meaningless... Ukrainians and westerners hate Putin... he interferes in elections remember.... just not Ukrainian elections.... that would be the US and Europe.

Listen to how the EU reacts to the Crimea and to the incident in the sea of Azov... Ukraine is their problem because they are making it so.

Ukraine has been taken off the map and doesn’t pose a threat to Western Europe when it comes to economic competition

Ukraine has become a wedge between Russia and the EU... the EU has made it so with sanctions and court rulings.... but playing up to the EU and US the ukraine has cut ties with Russia and continues to cut... if the EU doesn't take up the slack then the Ukraine is done for... as it is isolating itself from its main trading partner... even now Russia probably represents the majority of international trade for the Ukraine...

it’s an effective hammer and tool to use to stymie Russia from expanding West, to apply sanctions to Russia, to use it as a source of instability in Russia’s “newly drawn – circa 1990” Western regional borders…. I could go on but I feel like restating the same talking points in the previous post.

The fact is that trade between Russia and the EU benefited both sides... the trade between Russia and the US was minimal... the US was sitting on the sidelines watching Russia become richer and more powerful... they didn't care that the EU was getting richer too... they wanted to stop Russia from growing, but what they don't realise is that Russia is going to grow and there really isn't anything they can do to stop it... they are slowing it down, but by cutting Russia off from the EU just means Russia is looking to Asia and Africa and Central and South America and you know what... those countries want to trade with Russia because Russia wants to make money but is happy for its trading partners to grow and make money too... unlike the selfish colonial west who abuse the poor and the weak for anything they have of value.

I think this is great... in the sense that it is stopping Russia being integrated as just another piece of the corrupt immoral west... for the rest of the world alternatives from western culture is a good thing and the US is scared to death because they rely on the international set up as it is with the US dollar and US controlled international organisations that they either control or can manipulate to get their way... whether it is the UN or FIFA or WADA....

A hostile Ukraine with NATO bases and a Georgia with NATO bases and the Baltic states with NATO bases can serve as a stimulus to start to move east for Russia in terms of infrastructure and urban development...

I’m not really going to waste my time any more trying to respond to such an absurdity – you either see it or you purposely hold the contrarian position to avoid admitting a fact, which has a domino effect on other things – either or – don’t care.

Do you hold the same opinion about Georgia?

Should Russia make all sorts of concessions to create a Russia friendly Georgia too?

Why stop at former Soviet Republics... what about Poland?

Russia needs to worry about Russia.

Having friendly neighbours would be ideal because they are not going anywhere, but if they don't want to be friends you can't make them...

Not too different from Russia in the Yeltsin years… what’s so incriminating about hitting rock bottom twice? The collapse of imperial Russia/Soviet Union had its consequences – these are still the lingering ones.

Quite true, but Russia didn't blame the other republics for her problems... she tried to form collective economic and political and military groupings so they could work together and help each other get stronger... not pick one republic and blame it for everything...

There were plenty of Ukrainian mercs who went to Chechnia and Georgia but not to help Russia...

As for how these clowns fare in the future, really inconsequential in history books other that their demise must come – for the betterment of Russia and its people.

When they vote out Poro, it will be Timoshenko that gets in and she is probably worse than he is because she is not as stupid as he is, but still rabidly anti Russian.

I doubt she will restore relations.

In 10-15 years time when things are no better or even worse and foreigners own and have taken away everything of value and a new government comes in to power that is not rabidly anti Russian there will be no problems in restoring economic cooperation... it wasn't Russia that cut those ties.

Of course Motor Sich will be gone as will Antonov no doubt, but their products will already have Russian replacements so they will be shit out of luck, but I am sure they will be happy to return to buying Ukrainian food products instead of contraband from the EU that has labels from African companies on it...

If you mean to say their level of involvement should be kept “rather light” aka refrain from militarily invading that’s OK.

That is exactly what I mean. No Russian troops in the Ukraine... but if the US and the west are arming and equipping Kiev then Russia has every right to supply military equipment to the freedom fighters... and they should be up front and open about it too.

I think it was a stupid mistake to recognise the government in Kiev as being legitimate.

I’m not sure how one can type with a straight face that the current situation in Ukraine (chaos) “does not hurt Russia”. I will leave that statement along with the other rubbish nonsense you wrote about Ukraine being “Europe’s problem”.

The Ukraine and Russia were closely linked economically, but the Ukraine has largely broken those ties... which means Russia has been given an opportunity to stop carrying Ukrainian industry and develop its own engines and systems and equipment domestically.

It did hurt Russia, but it has developed and grown because of the experience.

Without the food sanctions imposed on the EU for EU sanctions imposed on Russia, Russia never would have become the worlds largest exporter of wheat.
Food production has greatly increased to the point where they are largely self sufficient in many areas... all thanks to the Ukraine.

But if we go by the times of chaos amongst the Russian people (of which there have been many), then yes, currently a large swath of its territory is not “Russian” nor “best buddies”.

Throwing the towel just cause of some major defeats here and there to the Anglo’s….. lmao…no sense of history I suppose.

Perhaps I am not colonial enough for you... the Ukraine has not voted in a government anything close to Russia friendly for the last 20 years... let them stew in their own juices for a decade with their bigotry... as Russia keeps growing they might realise they have been lied to and the promises of an easy life from the US is never kept...

Denial, playing dumb with a sprinkle of bitterness. That’s Ok but not serious. Another statement not worth considering….

What is wrong? You can enjoy your prize... have you seen the TV programme called Distraction?

The second last round the winner gets a nice prize like a car or a whole lot of goodies, but the last round determines what sort of state they get them in... for instance if you beat someone and won a car, the last round you have to answer 5 questions and for each question you get wrong the person you beat in the second last round gets to smash something on your car (or the prizes you won). So headlights or windscreen or door panels or roof might get smashed in with a sledge hammer, or the insides might get spray painted etc etc.

The Ukraine had potential to be a nice car but in making it anti Russian, you (the whole west got behind this so you can't just blame the US even though they started it) have poisoned it inside and out... you might as well have run the car over with a steam roller... people and country are messed up.

Denial, playing dumb with a sprinkle of bitterness. That’s Ok but not serious. Another statement not worth considering….

A realistic appraisal of the situation... the west has been so blinded by the game of destroying Russia they really are not thinking about what they are actually doing... they are using people like chess pieces, yet claiming to be the moral centre of the universe... that is never going to end well.

These people betraying the US and revealing its corruption and fundamental evil seem to be idealistic Americans, who, when confronted with the truth simply feel they have to act... snowden, manning... who is next.

Ironically treating heroes as criminals... that is how evil america has become and it thinks it is best to lead the world and the EU is supporting that...

I do want to point out that you could mirror your words with 90s "new Russia" and the description would totally fit. Becareful now, straying too far from the reservation of sanity.

In 1990s Russia most of the bad guys fled to the west with their ill gotten gains, leaving Russia to the Russians... there was a unity there that is not present in the Ukraine and wont be present for the foreseeable future... which I think will result in either a divided country or a brutal massacre...

You and I have different definitions of failure and your scope as to the goals and objectives of the putsch are simply too narrow. Too much triumphalism on an otherwise swamp of defeat.

Your emphasis on this so called failure that Putin didn't win the Ukrainian peoples support is amusing... Putin never wanted the support of the Ukrainian people... he has said many times that international relations is not personal and he is not looking for friends... he is always interested in the best result possible for the Russian people... having 60 million poor ukrainians to look after would not help Russia.

If the Ukraine was an ally Russia would have to invest and support their development at the cost of supporting and investing in their own development.

Motor Sich might get a rebuilt factory... and on the international market compete with Klimov for helicopter engines etc.

More than you would care to admit.

They are losing patience and see western reactions as being two faced...  alleged chem attack in Syria with only terrorist video footage and the west attacks with cruise missiles... alleged chemical attack by terrorists and Assad and Russia are blamed by the US government and no attacks are launched... almost makes you think they care about Syrian civilians and at the same time they don't...

The Russians worked it out a while ago, but being polite they are only starting to point it out now that ties are being severed with regular predictability and soon there will be no ties to cut, and the US will increasingly interfere with Russian trade with other countries... only a matter of time before Russia decides that is an ac of war and reacts.

Pointing out America’s hypocrisy and foul deeds does not solve the problem. All empires commit crimes en-masse to gain power, keep power, and compete with competitors. The U.S is no exception. No outrage will make them change…. only counter moves that exact the same level of pain into them will. That’s just a simple fact. The world cares little for anything else.

Ignoring their crimes, while at the same time listening to them accuse Russia of the same crimes or worse is drinking the Kool Aide...

Stop listening to them. Ignore their propaganda... in fact call them out on it at every opportunity...

No one cares. They sit at the top and eat first. Until someone dethrones them and relegates them to second or third fiddle status like Russia and China are today they’ll keep getting away with shit unscathed. Maybe when they get to be victims of the same shit they've pulled on others.....surely then they’ll cry foul to high heavens – and when this comes to past – the world won’t care either because that’s how this works. Their voice will be largely drowned out by the new top dog.

They sit at the table while the EU scrabbles on the floor for scraps because the EU has no spine and no balls.... to arrogant to sit at the kids table with China and Russia and India and others, because the US is a really messy eater and they are well fed on the floor at Americas feet.

The thing is... how are the kids going to treat the kings dog when they grow up and take their seat at the main table... especially when the kids have long memories and remember when certain members of the EU once sat at the table and treated them like dogs...

Pretty sure many have tried and many simply value self-preservation when a cause seems lost and the odds to succeed too low - but I'm sure many would enlist if called upon. People need to have something to belief in. When was the last time you took part in an armed insurgency and revolution? Organized it? Faced a brutal enemy? … a helping hand goes a longggggggggg way..... effective armed resistance doesn't spring overnight.

These people are Ukrainian... some think that means Russian, but many do not. For every 1,000 people there there will be 1,000 different reasons to fight. They seem happy to come out when paid US dollars to overthrow their old government... or maybe they just did it for the cookies.

What you are asking Putin to do is to send Russian troops into a foreign country to support people who not only wont stand up themselves, but have been in an anti Russian state for the last 30 years.

The vast majority of Crimeans are Russian and have voted in several non binding referendums to rejoin Russia in the past, yet Putin didn't invade them either. He used the troops he was allowed to station in the region to ensure the wrong elements did not come from the Ukraine and allowed an orderly safe vote to take place so the people could decide for themselves. If the breakaway regions want to do that I am sure he might assist of talks with Kiev fail, but it is unlikely to be such an easy procedure.

But this seems kinda obvious which begs the question? Why isn’t it obvious to you?

Sending weapons to Serbia to help it fight NATO is not helping Serbia... it would just get their hopes up and ultimately kill more Serbs in the process.

The Ukrainian rebels are likely to at best outlast the Kiev government and when they run out of money and support they can separate, but the chances of them rolling into Kiev are small to non existent.

Some, like myself, would opine that they should have pursued these “allies” (more like acquaintances on a common cause) much much sooner and not as a reaction to pressure…. But that’s just me and a select gazillion observers.

Some could argue that the dicks steering the ship of the west might not have had full control and to try to dump the west and also therefore existing international organisations at an earlier stage would just have isolated Russia and made the job of the enemies of Russia within the west much much easier.

It would be the same as asking why Russia kept buying helicopter engines from Motor Sich, and for that matter ship engines too... well what is obvious now was not obvious before and lets be realistic... if Russia had cut off the Ukraine in the 1990s, then they would have pushed them into the arms of the west without question. This way they gave the Ukrainians every chance to change their minds and they did not take it.

You can blame Putin all you want but the Ukraine turning its back on Russia was not Russias fault... they did what they could... they even made an economic offer that the elected anti Russian Ukrainian government could not refuse over the politically more attractive (to them) western offer... that was economically clearly inferior...

It all depends of the motivating factors and the cause. You'll be surprised. You're selling Russians short.

They are putting up with a lot of shit now... they clearly want to kill each other...

Perhaps... perhaps Russia lands a liberal clown that gets schooled and sets Russia back decades or finally disintegrates the country in chaos. Russia has had its fair share of idiots holding the highest power of the land. The more essential to hold the buffers.

The military have been developed to a point where I think they can be a counter balance to a liberal clown... if the country is broken I would expect the nukes to start flying...

Pretty sure he didn't leave every stone unturned when trying to prevent this calamity - he offered a deal (the better deal), and whined when the anglo's played dirty and bypassed it. And Yes that was his job - and he knew damn well the scheming of the anglo's - but he was afraid to act with a strong hand, and naively ventured into giving the benefit of the "doubt" - and thus got burned.

Or maybe more land is not really on his agenda... if they want the land of Chernobyl they can have it...

The west got the Soviet Union involved in Afghanistan too... and fanned the flames in Chechnia... do you expect him to oblige the west and get involved in a war every 10-15 years to kill off young Russian men and burn up the budget through the military?

He loves to go on TV and say "The West tricked me - we had a deal bla bla bla".... at least he has the capacity to admit his failures, although this doesn't help the matter. Not sure why his fans try to act so oblivious to this.

He is dealing with snakes but it is still his fault... love it.

That’s a rather long time. The U.S will take that sort of reaction time any day of the week. You're acting as if CIA analyst/strategist were completely oblivious to these developments at their infancy? They can be off on their estimates here or there but oblivious they’re not. They seem to be fine with the trade off.

Technically S-400 is an upgraded S-300, and entered service about 2007 so really that reaction was less than 5 years to go from a target intercept speed of 2.8km/s for S-300 to 4.8km/s for S-400....

The new hypersonic weapons the US has no defence against and they have admitted as such... which pretty much means US aircraft carriers and indeed surface ships are easy targets... I don't think they are fine with that trade off.

If U.S strategists think these developments pose an threat beyond their ability to handle the U.S would have come out to the negotiating table (and renegotiate these treaties under a new name as is customary for them to save face). Since they're pursing just the opposite; it seems to me their strategist are fine with the current path and stratagems for containing Russia. You could say all is well "within the ballpark".

Trump is in the process of breaking all the strategic weapon treaties because he wants new ones to include China as well as Russia... and you can bet your ass there will be serious limits on hypersonic weapons too... until they have them.

That is not to say they're incapable of being wrong.

They have made a habit of it have they not?

WMDs in Iraq, etc.

Well yes those are some of the real world examples, as well others I touched upon in the previous posts and many more which I shouldn’t bother – what matters is the overall effect. Russia is too big a country, too rich a country to be crushed by one blow. That still does not mean it hasn’t taken a blow. Don’t be childish here.

You are the one being childish... the Ukraine does not make the best engines... they bought them as a type of charity... of neighbourly relations... now they can make their own and do a better job... and keep the money in their own economies...

More independent and self reliant within circa 1990 borders -- yes. I wouldn’t be too sure about using the word stronger – misleading in this case when looking at the totally of the loses on a scale.

Making their own weapons and products to render them US Sanction proof and to replace Ukrainian products does make Russia stronger and resistent to external pressure... it also expands their ability to support export products themselves because they make all the bits and don't need anyones permission to sell to whomever they like.

If they get voted out…. Last I checked Poreshenko’s potential replacement are more of the same, different tints. And Yes you’ve correctly guessed the “price” many will pay…..if you can call it that.

Poro put Timoshenko in jail... I am sure she can't wait to return the favour... she is no friend of Russia and she is smarter than poro so she will be rather more dangerous, yet at the same time less reckless and less like a cornered animal like poro.

It was rather a joke… but you know it. I will however quote another adage:  “It is better to be feared than loved, if you cannot be both.”

I think it applies well.

The turn around of Russia in the last couple of decades has been dramatic... comparable to stalin but without the labour camps or the bullshit.

Ukraine is too valuable for childish impulses of the times to override the strategic value it holds for Russia.

Not really much different from the strategic value of the Baltic states... so when does Putin invade there?

Sure Russia has lost the information war for the hearts of minds of some Russians in Ukraine.... but Russians are not predetermined by birth to hate their kin.

Yeah... trapping people in a burning building and shooting those who try to escape the flames... they just need a hug and everything can be forgiven...

Whoever rules as #1 will always be Russia’s enemy - whether it’s the Anglo’s and their puppets or China 50 or 60 years from now. Big powers will always be at war with each other (cold or hot wars). Such is the nature of man. The struggle will always be there, hence why some things are always a constant as far as Russia is concerned.

Of course.... the west are bastards but any other country in their position would be even worse... the thing is that neither Russia nor China or India or any other country is trying to take Americans position as leader of the world... they just want to be left alone and not be interfered with... the big powers you talk about are now all little powers inside the EU structure so we know they can follow with the most toady of them... Russias problem is pretty much the same as Chinas problem... they don't recognise Americas self appointed authority to lead the world and that is Americas real problem with both countries...

If Ukrops even sneeze in general direction of Crimea Russian Military will go full Operation Odessa and when I say Operation Odessa I mean Japanese one

the real question is... what is the plan?

Attack on the rebel states... attack on the Crimea itself... an attack on the bridge...

1 and 3 are possible in my opinion, but 2 would be suicide even without Russian assistance.

Some sort of provocation inside a freedom fighter region they will use to move in government troops, or perhaps a standoff missile launch at the Kerch bridge... they have a range of soviet missile technology including anti ship missiles like Granit and Vulkan...

This is true, however when eventually at least the south and the east will come back to Russia the design and production facilities for aircraft engines in Aleksandrovsk (Zaporozhye) from respectively Ivchenko-Progress and Motor Sich could be integrated in the UEC and the factories upgraded so that they can help producing modern russian engines from Perm, Klimov, Saturn etc.

GE as example, bought the Czech company that used to design and build small gas turbines for Soviet Union and added their product to its own.

Rolls-Royce did the same with Allison engines in the US and has manufacturing plant also in Germany and Singapore


The same thing can be done for naval engines and reductor gears in Nikolaev (Zorya Mashproekt).

The problem is that most of those products are either fully replaced or nearly replaced with Russian produced models now, and more importantly the situation in those Ukrainian plants has to be considered between now and when they can be returned to production for Russian needs.

Russia did not intervene in 2014 because also in Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev the number of people that would have rejoiced at the prospect of rejoining Russia was only around 50% and it did not want to occupy an area with a large part of hostile population. After all these years of Country 404 management and fascist government, I believe anotherbig chunk of people, at least in the south and the east are changing their mind, even if not in public for fear for their life (especially due to what happened in Odessa in May 2014).

But that is the problem... even if the fraction is only 30, 20, 10 percent it can be plenty enough for civil unrest and sabotage to make stable growth and development difficult and more expensive and delayed.... all of which will play into western plans...

In addition, they will see the improvement in the industrial achievement and life standard in Russia, and would like again to be an important part of this.

I believe many people felt also betrayed by Russia.
A big responsibility of the current situation was also due the fact that Russia in the nineties was weak and rejected and abandoned its people: the creation of an independent Ucraine and abandoning Odessa and Nikolaev was a big crime, only done to allow more criminals and oligarcs to have their own fiefdoms.

Like I said... people with their hand out and a chip on their shoulder... Russia is to blame and needs to fix our problems... there would be no gratitude because they think it was Russias fault in the first place.

Russia would get a stable normal, but not necessarily friendly neighbour... but how much effort do they need to fix the problems of the Ukraine when small towns in Russia could do with attention too.

At the end of the day it is the Ukraine that has pushed Russia away and cut ties and relations...

Timoshenko is no idiot, and may realise that better relations with the Russians would improve the Ukraines position even if it is just to play Moscow off against Washington and Brussels, but I doubt great relations with Russia are her goals in the long or short term.

I suspect the main thing she is interested in is keeping the Ukraine as one country... but does that include the Crimea or has she accepted that is gone?

We really wont know till she gets into power... it will be fun to see poros cronies scatter...

Yes I meant modernising and using the plants to produce newly designed Russian engines. If they want to reduce the number of imported western engines and aircrafts they will need a production capacity much bigger than what is now available in Russia.

The thing is that they will already be planning for that extra production capacity in Russia, and I rather doubt they will be counting on any support from Ukrainian companies in the near or foreseeable future.

If Timoshenko gets elected and realises that cooperation with Russia is in the interests of the Ukraines future their might be some cooperation... remember it is not Russia cutting off the Ukraine... it is the other way around...

She might do it just to play east and west off against each other to get the best deal... I don't think Russia would play hard to get in this situation, but then I don't think they would rely on any Ukrainians in the future either.

If the Ukraine splits I am sure the Russians would trade with the eastern states and develop business and cultural and military links... it would be a bit like splitting Poland in the 1940s... better to move your forces closer to the enemy capital than to wait until the enemy forces moved right on your border...

Of course, if they want to stay independent than Russia should not invest a ruble. Better build new factories in Russia's proper, especially in less developed area like the far east, and in friendly country that need a reindustrialisation and may help Russia supply chain and servicing in other areas of the world (e.g Venezuela and Siria).

If the Ukraine stays one country and Timoshenko wants a less strict relationship with Russia I am sure Putin will accept trade with the Ukraine... remember it was the Ukraine that cut Russia off... Russia only responded in kind... I hope the EU and US pay attention to this as they could learn the same lesson... but of course they wont...

Ukraine to send warships back to Azov despite Russian capture, this time with NATO & OSCE members on board

If they break the rules again, they will get the same treatment I hope...

There is quite a bit of western bias but some of the info can be interesting...

Umm... it starts with:

A pact between Kiev and the leaders of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine has limited violence and ensured stability, but at the cost of keeping in place corrupt governing practices and forestalling reform.

Hahahahahaha... because Kiev is now the centre of reform and anti corruption governance?

The pact between President Petro Poroshenko and the regional elite may be a necessary evil, but it holds back the prospect of a political transition and reform.

So violence and murder by the security services must be accepted for the goal of keeping the place anti Russian on the surface and obedient to the illegal government of Kiev...

...sorry... I am not reading the rest of this western propaganda bullshit...

I meant that under all the bias and the propaganda it is possible to read the real situation in Kharkov.

I honestly doubt the people who wrote that article know or even care what the real situation in Kharkov is...

The city and region have a lot of potential (industrially, economically and as an important trade link) but cannot realise this potential if detached from the rest of the Russian world. Probably the prorussia population is at least 50% but they are silent. The uprising in 2014 did not work because some oligarchs paid their own private armies and criminal gangs to suppress the population.

Not that much different from what happened in the Baltic states... large percentage of the population spoke Russian, and most of the trade for the country going through their ports was from Russia. Since going all anti Russian they found that Russia has rerouted all its international trade through its own ports and cost them a significant amount of their normal income.

Sad for the people... but who is to blame... they say you get the leadership you deserve... if they don't want to protest or tell their representatives in government what they expect then of course this sort of crap will happen...

Russia is happy to trade, but I don't think they will ever go back to using their ports as much as they did... a bit like the EU and the food import ban Russia imposed in retaliation... if the EU ever drops its sanctions the Russians will to, but food production in Russia has changed... it is rather unlikely they will ever import the same amount of food from the EU that they did before, and the EU only has itself to blame for being led around by the nose by the US... who didn't really have much in the way of trade with Russia so the sanctions made little difference.

Ironic the west has to fall in line and sanction Russia but the US still buys Russian rocket motors and Titanium parts for its aircraft... and they have the balls to complain that Germany buys Russian gas and not US gas...