Sweden and Finland accession to NATO

Isos wrote:

walle83 wrote:

franco wrote:Finland and Sweden military strengths:

https://twitter.com/colonelhomsi/status/1526685315955564544/photo/1

Eh yeah, about 50% of the numbers there are wrong.

Wikipedia has better "facts" then that

I agree. They are using nato equipment so half of this is probably not in even servicable due to lack of spare parts.

Most likely they have 20 tanks and 30 jets available at any time.

Available or not, the total numers are mostly wrong. Sweden does not have hundreds of artillery pieces, they have 24 archers.
Fighters are about right and tanks.

walle83 wrote:Available or not, the total numers are mostly wrong. Sweden does not have hundreds of artillery pieces, they have 24 archers.
Fighters are about right and tanks.

They are probably dumping towed and self propelled guns under the same name and using an icon which shows a self propelled gun.
I figured that out the moment I looked at it.

Sounds like Croatia might use this opportunity to get some concessions from the EU and HATO over its local disputes and problems... will be entertaining to see if these demands and the demands of Turkey will be catered to or brutally suppressed... or the rules changed to allow the US to select who joins and who does not...

lancelot wrote:

walle83 wrote:Available or not, the total numers are mostly wrong. Sweden does not have hundreds of artillery pieces, they have 24 archers.
Fighters are about right and tanks.

They are probably dumping towed and self propelled guns under the same name and using an icon which shows a self propelled gun.
I figured that out the moment I looked at it.

No, Sweden scrapped thier last haubits in 2011. There are no self propelled guns left either.

Finland should be getting their new nuclear power plant operational this year in July.
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Finnish-EPR-starts-supplying-electricity

They also have the Balticconnector pipeline to Estonia which is connected to an LNG terminal in Latvia.
But I don't know if either have enough capacity. Probably not.

https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en/-/10623/leasing-of-lng-terminal-ship-will-ensure-sufficient-gas-supply-in-finland?languageId=en_US

It seems they will also be leasing an LNG terminal. But supposed to only started operating after the winter. Personally I am highly skeptical of this timeline.

I doubt the gas capacity will cover the needs of the Baltic. And the nuclear reactor, if they get the same issues with the only existing EPRs in China, that might not be a safe supply either. Anyway, they have better chances with electricity than gas that is for sure.

They can burn wood for heat.

I am sure they will think it is worth it to cut off Russia from their culture and trade.

They will make HATO stronger I am sure because the purpose of HATO is to separate europe from Russia so obviously adding more countries will make it stronger in that sense.

Of course other countries seeking HATO membership will see how quickly Finland and Sweden get in and wonder why their applications are taking so long... but I am sure the US will have a good answer... they always do.

Russia is better off cutting ties with countries that hate them, Russia has a lot to offer... why send cheap gas and resources to a west that hates them and actively works against them. That same cheap gas and other resources could go to Asia and Africa in trade for things Russia wants and needs and wont be used to stab Russia in the back the way the west does.

This is positive all round.

Russia will move more troops to the region, though later tactical nukes can perform the role of defending the region because with Finland in HATO they no longer represent a small neighbour, they are part of a machine designed to destroy and dismember Russia... they are a threat that would need to be destroyed rather than negotiated with or respected as a neutral country might.

They are going to be a small part of the US on Russias border, with no voice of its own... a cog in a military machine to destroy Russia when the US decides to attack.

GarryB wrote:a cog in a military machine to destroy Russia when the US decides to attack.

And thats never gona happen.....

What part is never going to happen?

You don't actually believe Russia is about to take over europe do you... it is pretty clear Putin was put in a position where war was going to happen was he going to let them strike first and risk they get a few good shots in before they can respond or preemptive self defence where you attack first and cripple his ability to do serious damage to you first.

Now I understand most in the west would say take the blow and then you have the moral high ground for what ever you might want to do in return, but morality has nothing to do with war and we are talking a war with the west so you have to expect to not even take part in the propaganda war because the media in the west is controlled by western intel services... there was no value in Russia being the victim when Georgia invaded South Ossetia... ask most people in the west and it was a Russian invasion or they made them invade and that would be how an attack by Kiev would be painted if it had happened.

So if Russia only strikes back when it believes it is threatened how best to threaten it than put US bases and US missiles on its border with Finland... what country would the US never put bases or missiles on?

It is the best of both worlds... it is very close so it is destabilising, but it is not US territory so worst case any response will destroy the country that is not the US of A so there is no down side for the US.

For Finland of course, now that you are going to join HATO you need to learn to start taking orders and think of the big picture instead of worrying about your own security and situation...

The US is trying to escalate things even further now... sending Patriots and anti ship missiles to take out their air power and naval power in the region to take the pressure off their nazis... mostly so grain can be shipped from Ukrainian ports so the price does not go too high and create more inflation problems for American voters... the US could care less about the rest of teh world including Ukrainians.

America is a me me me country... and Finland is not me. in this context.

As more countries stop using the US dollar their ability to just print more money becomes dangerous for them because their money will lose all value.

They are a parasite... a huge tick sucking the blood of the economies who use their dollar for international trade...

Or do you think being on the front line... ground zero so to speak... that you will be able to call the shots... like Poland does...

Joining HATO means you are now a hostile country so all trade has to be in Rubles, which you of course will refuse which will destroy all trade and relations between your countries so the borders will effectively be closed, but you are going to have to build more fences and perhaps even some walls along that 1,300km stretch of border... wont be cheap and wont be easy to monitor, but I am sure it will be worth it.

Not like you need new roads and bridges and schools and hospitals or anything.

Or are you being realistic and you are saying they probably can't destroy Russia with a HATO attack of anything short of nukes... looking at the conventional military power of the Ukraine and what a small forces of Russian soldiers have done to them I actually don't think HATO could do any better.

Don't get me wrong, HATO has some flash gear, but when you look at them fundamentally they are an air based force and even if they could do to Russia what Russia did to the Ukraines IADS, they would still have all the problems the Russians are having with individual air defence systems which they have in enormous numbers.... and HATO defence and HATO attack are based on aircraft which means losing aircraft every day would rapidly cripple HATOs ability to attack and defend.

We saw in Afghanistan what HATO is like when Air Power is withdrawn or dealt with.

The west has spent on drones because they can't afford to make more planes than Russia has SAMs and they are still going to struggle to make more drones than they have missiles too. but now that includes laser shots and air burst 30mm and 57mm cannon rounds as well.

Finnish parliament speaker Matti Vanhanen said the country cannot agree to change its legal rules over Turkey and extradite "innocent people"

Gotta say, Erdogan is really giving a good kick to the balls to both Washington and the EU

And it's not like they can refute his arguments. He's essentially saying that if a country wants to enter into a defensive alliance with Turkey, so fine, but that country has to look out for Turkey's security interests too. The PKK people in Sweden and Finland represent a threat to Turkey, hence he's demanding them to give them up.

Now the US, EU, and by extension their already allied governments in Scandinavia - are confronted with a choice between their own idealogical dogmas which they break anyway just not publicly, and realpolitik which demands Finland and Sweden join NATO.
It's possible that a compromise will be reached, if one is to imagine that Turkey's concerns do not extend beyond its immediate security interests, and thus the Kurds will be relocated to Austria or some other non-NATO country in Europe. But it's also possible that Turkey's protest extends to the support of the Kurds by Washington and Brussels in general, and more substantive concessions will have to be agreed upon.
It's an unpleasant little reality check in any case. Turkey has the leverage to make such demands, and as this crisis with Russia continues, other states in the world will find their own bargaining power increased - against both the US and Russia in fact, but where Russia is used to dealing with countries as equals, the US isn't.

What Erdogan is doing is really multipolarity in action. Some here on the forum have a grudge against him, claim him as this big enemy of Russia. And yes Turkey does commit to unfriendly actions against Russia. But it's an independent country that prioritizes its own interests. It can be just as unpleasant to the West, as demonstrated. From Russia's POV, it's much better to have Turkey under a president like Erdogan, than have Turkey be another moralizing EU country like Sweden or Finland that are mostly just an extension of Washington's will.

When Ergodan stated that he can't allow Finland and Sweden join HATO because they support the Kurds I immediately thought that this would mean if the US was not a member they would also oppose their membership for the same reason... amusing.

Funny that the Fins call these people innocent... the Baltic States call Chechens who murder children and civilians in Beslan and the Moscow theatre siege innocent freedom fighters too...

https://www.stalkerzone.org/those-who-have-lost-fear/
A little history lesson

This talk is getting a bit serious.

Turkey is talking about a possible withdrawal from NATO.

The oldest Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet writes that the country has not received any benefits from membership in the Alliance. Exit from it promises Ankara a lot of pluses.

That is true... HATO is built around the concept that Russia is the threat, but Putin and Erdogan might not see eye to eye on everything but they are able to talk and reach agreements when needed... can't really say the same about Turkey and the US...

For Turkey being part of HATO means they lose independence and control and have to accept US bases on their territory with nuclear weapons... what they wanted to join was the EU and have been refused... they wanted economic ties to europe and europe rejected them over and over...

Maybe Turkey could join a Euroasian organisation that is economic and not political or military in nature...

Turkish drones would be rather better with Russian engines, and of course Russia has a new wide range of weapons deployed by drones too...

The irony is that HATO tries to drag Turkey into conflicts they really could care less about, but when it comes to Turkeys defence against Kurds or ISIS HATO does not want to know, or even supports these groups in the hope of damaging Iran or Syria or Iraq...

Backman wrote:This talk is getting a bit serious.

Turkey is talking about a possible withdrawal from NATO.

The oldest Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet writes that the country has not received any benefits from membership in the Alliance. Exit from it promises Ankara a lot of pluses.

lol

wut

Some random comment on YouTube a couple weeks back mentioned that a 'Swedish NATO employee' told someone that discussions were underway about excluding Turkey from NATO due to its demands on Sweden and Finland, and I thought that it was all just a load of bosch. Turkey is far too strategic a country, and its demands were ostensibly reasonable.

flamming_python wrote:

Backman wrote:This talk is getting a bit serious.

Turkey is talking about a possible withdrawal from NATO.

The oldest Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet writes that the country has not received any benefits from membership in the Alliance. Exit from it promises Ankara a lot of pluses.

lol

wut

Some random comment on YouTube a couple weeks back mentioned that a 'Swedish NATO employee' told someone that discussions were underway about excluding Turkey from NATO due to its demands on Sweden and Finland, and I thought that it was all just a load of bosch. Turkey is far too strategic a country, and its demands were ostensibly reasonable.

It will be resolved behind closed doors, its just a matter of time.

I guess that putsch and assassination attempt was the driving factor of Turkey turning.
We might forget that, but back in 2015, Turkey was really at the edge of war with Russia.

In 2014 they overthrew the elected leader of the Ukraine because he wasn't behaving and doing what they demanded... the bastard was interested in the Ukraine and the Ukrainian people and wouldn't follow instructions, so the US got rid of him... a year later Erdogan obviously strayed from the clear and obvious path of being their performing monkey in the region to literally bait the bear... but someone screwed up and he held power and realised his position as far as they were concerned was to be their bitch and do as they instructed even at the expense of Turkeys interests and the Turkish people.

Has it made him a better leader for Turkey... was the conflict with Russia really Turkeys conflict or were they just following instructions from Washington that wanted that conflict with Russia.

Lots of people in the west want him to go because now he is interested in Turkey and the Turkish people instead of just being cannon fodder meat sheild material for the US and its drive to destroy any opposition... right now it is Russia, next it will be China... then probably India... there will always be some country they see as a threat... despite those countries not interfering in their elections or murdering their citizens for fun or for oil...

I don't particularly like his choices to help ISIS in Syria, but I understand the US thinking of helping an enemy to fight a greater enemy... even though that is incredibly stupid and very likely to bite you in the arse eventually... by the time he stopped listening to the US on such matters (2015) it was too late to change tack... I am sure he would prefer Assad as a neighbour than Syrian Kurds, but that option is no longer available...

Turkey is far too strategic a country, and its demands were ostensibly reasonable.

Reasonable demands have nothing to do with it... all Russia wants is to be treated with respect, but instead the west tries to go into meetings from a position of power or strength to bully or threaten Russia to get what they want so they can ignore Russian views or interests...

It will be resolved behind closed doors, its just a matter of time.

I hope it is. That wall/fence 1,300km long is going to be very very expensive and they wont have any old shit to give you to pump up your military so it is going to have to be even more new expensive shit they will have to make to pass on to you to man those walls.

Once you join Russia will shift you from neutral neighbour to hostile enemy and rubles for trade is coming in all goods and services... so that will close up trade relations between your countries. Russia will move some military forces there, but eventually they will revert to the cheaper option of ballistic and cruise missiles with tactical nuclear warheads to man the walls.

I am sure the west will compensate Finland and Sweden for the lost trade, like they didn't with Ukraine and Georgia.

GarryB wrote:

It will be resolved behind closed doors, its just a matter of time.

I hope it is. That wall/fence 1,300km long is going to be very very expensive and they wont have any old shit to give you to pump up your military so it is going to have to be even more new expensive shit they will have to make to pass on to you to man those walls.

Once you join Russia will shift you from neutral neighbour to hostile enemy and rubles for trade is coming in all goods and services... so that will close up trade relations between your countries. Russia will move some military forces there, but eventually they will revert to the cheaper option of ballistic and cruise missiles with tactical nuclear warheads to man the walls.

I am sure the west will compensate Finland and Sweden for the lost trade, like they didn't with Ukraine and Georgia.

I dont know about Finland but Sweden basicly has no trade relation with Russia so we dont give a f.
And a new boarder with Nato should worry Russia more then anyone else. Nato have money to spend, Russia not so much.

I dont know about Finland but Sweden basicly has no trade relation with Russia so we dont give a f.

You were a neutral country, I doubt they would waste a nuke on your country, but now that you are no longer neutral you will at least get your capital city toasted and major air bases/airports will be nuked too, while any major US bases will also be targeted... that is the point of joining HATO... so that the US can forward deploy forces in your country.

HATO has no money... the unlimited bottomless pit of printed money complains that HATO countries do not spend enough of their current budgets on defence and demands they spend more... they don't give you anything... except a target on your back.

For Finland the cost of the wall they will be bullied into building will be difficult, but I am sure it will make them so much safer than they were when they were neutral.... but when was either country actually neutral...

And a new boarder with Nato should worry Russia more then anyone else. Nato have money to spend, Russia not so much.

HATO needs to restock its reserves which have mostly been depleted in the Ukraine already, and those new weapons wont be cheap because of chip shortages and covid supply chain issues still making things difficult.

Russia will just shift a few units in to more suitable positions, they wont need a wall... with almost no traffic likely crossing the border any movement will stand out and be pounced upon.

I am sure Finland and Sweden will be fine... once they join HATO the countries most likely to bomb another country will be their allies.

GarryB wrote:

I dont know about Finland but Sweden basicly has no trade relation with Russia so we dont give a f.

You were a neutral country, I doubt they would waste a nuke on your country, but now that you are no longer neutral you will at least get your capital city toasted and major air bases/airports will be nuked too, while any major US bases will also be targeted... that is the point of joining HATO... so that the US can forward deploy forces in your country.

HATO has no money... the unlimited bottomless pit of printed money complains that HATO countries do not spend enough of their current budgets on defence and demands they spend more... they don't give you anything... except a target on your back.

For Finland the cost of the wall they will be bullied into building will be difficult, but I am sure it will make them so much safer than they were when they were neutral.... but when was either country actually neutral...

And a new boarder with Nato should worry Russia more then anyone else. Nato have money to spend, Russia not so much.

HATO needs to restock its reserves which have mostly been depleted in the Ukraine already, and those new weapons wont be cheap because of chip shortages and covid supply chain issues still making things difficult.

Russia will just shift a few units in to more suitable positions, they wont need a wall... with almost no traffic likely crossing the border any movement will stand out and be pounced upon.

I am sure Finland and Sweden will be fine... once they join HATO the countries most likely to bomb another country will be their allies.

I feel this is just going in circles.
Russias military budget is what ~65 billion us dollars give or take. What could Nato collected defence budget be, ~1 trillion?

Russia wouldnt stand a chance against Nato unless they want to start launching nukes.
And like I stated before, no one cares about the Russian nukes in Sweden or Finland because they know they will never be used.

Arrow wrote:

NATO is not able to win the arms race with Russia.

Really? Why not?