Syrian War: News #17

Militarov wrote:Israelis were always using airspaces of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and others as proving grounds. Mostly their strikes even went completely unchallenged. Low flying, EW, long distance launches... they hit what they want without ever alarming defences.

Well Militarov what you have described is not the a correct assessment of the offensive procedure by now established in IAF in the "new" (latest 2 years after some Soviet era AD batteris has been modernized and few newer has been activated) Syrian airspace.

- 1)  Israel has the most extensive HUMINT network in the Syrian territory among all the states in the region.
This is an heritage established mostly in the late '80 years and that ,with the presence of "rebels" terrorists groups since war beginning, even extended and increased its info-gathering potential.

It is mostly in virtue of this large and very efficient HUMINT foothold that Israeli planner can ,with a certain degree of reliability, know material mouvement around Syrian territory , uncover masking and deceiving measures in those operations (a task not only often impossible to achieve with space and air based intelligence but often bringing to the results wanted by the enemy) and ,above all, know presence or absence of legacy or advanced air defense relocatable or mobile.  

- 2)  Target selection, in particular by part of IAF is always subordinated to the info coming from the humint network ,with particular stress to overall presence/absence ,composition and time of station and movements of AD systems and EW/masking assets available.
Therefore in reality IAF almost never strike "what it want" (less than an operation each 20-25 receive the risk-assessment "placet" by part of MoD) but instead strike the most profitable targets among those for which exist an opened time -window for execution with low probability of presence of opposition by part of AD systems (in particular Панцирь-С1 and  Бук).

3) Operational protocols for IAF offensive operations has deeply changed in the last two years only in reason of the modernization of legacy Soviet AD systems completed by Federation specialists and increased presence of the deadly (but very few for theirs luck) mobile more modern ones.
For one, practically all the the air-to-ground operations has been transformed in stand-off munition delivery ,mostly from lebanese air space. The unique instances where the protocols has been breached ,even for a very short time, the result has been the downing or damaging up to beyond-repair of the aircraft involved.  
That forced measure has not only deeply reduced the offensive potential of IAF, but particularly in the last year has also often conducted to failed or low impact operations when a different percentage of those munitions (depending on the AD system available) has been destroyed before reach its target area .

4) Israel enjoy a foundamental ,huge strategic advantage that majority of analysts overlook or ,more simply, do not want to mention : all its enemies know it own nuclear weapons.  
That element by itself is the reason for which a state geographically devoid of the most basic strategical deepness do not have all its air bases reduced to the level of Luhansk and Donetsk airports since day one.
Reality is that not nation even only dare to plan a similar attack, that would literally put the same Israel existence at heavy risk, depriving suddenly it of the military arms on which its defence is historically based because of the risk of even a devastating even only limited nuclear response by part of Israel.
Obviously Israel is perfectly aware of the dynamics and enormous impact of this unilateral strategic element and this is the main reason for which it attempt in any way to prevent any other player in ME theatre to achieve the same advantage.

Yes . So collecting all those bits from latest SDB attack is very important . As is determine type of guidance . Must count how many hits on target . This will tell you what platform was used , if any . SDB can be ground launched . The weakness of this attack is the long glide path . And small warhead . So for defence , important asset can be kept in underground bunker . This alone will largely nullify effect of this weapon . Also I am not sure who launched . The Jordan unlikely to have given permission . And the missiles apparently coming from there , indicate someone that wants to encourage retaliation by Syria against Jordan . Arab fighting Arab . Even the Yank may feel queezy about this . But not usraelis . I don't think that we could rule out a B2 or B1 , flying direct from US and refulling over Atlantic . Going back after mission . It is important to count the hits and find out what platform . What are our plane spotters doing ? Defences can be adjusted to allow a " Syrian " pilot to engage .

Heard about SAA advance in Deir Azzur against SDF . Followed by yank hitting their position by F16 . For those that think this intervention by yank and Co is temporary or insignificant . And that hitting them back will only antagonise and provoke them. Then news for you . Yank officially fighting SAA . In Syrian soil . Question is what to do with their airforce ? Hit their airfield with SSBM . Fired by Syrian .

Mindstorm wrote:

Militarov wrote:Israelis were always using airspaces of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and others as proving grounds. Mostly their strikes even went completely unchallenged. Low flying, EW, long distance launches... they hit what they want without ever alarming defences.

Well Militarov what you have described is not the a correct assessment of the offensive procedure by now established in IAF in the "new" (latest 2 years after some Soviet era AD batteris has been modernized and few newer has been activated) Syrian airspace.

- 1)  Israel has the most extensive HUMINT network in the Syrian territory among all the states in the region.
This is an heritage established mostly in the late '80 years and that ,with the presence of "rebels" terrorists groups since war beginning, even extended and increased its info-gathering potential.

It is mostly in virtue of this large and very efficient HUMINT foothold that Israeli planner can ,with a certain degree of reliability, know material mouvement around Syrian territory , uncover masking and deceiving measures in those operations (a task not only often impossible to achieve with space and air based intelligence but often bringing to the results wanted by the enemy) and ,above all, know presence or absence of legacy or advanced air defense relocatable or mobile.  

- 2)  Target selection, in particular by part of IAF is always subordinated to the info coming from the humint network ,with particular stress to overall presence/absence ,composition and time of station and movements of AD systems and EW/masking assets available.
Therefore in reality IAF almost never strike "what it want" (less than an operation each 20-25 receive the risk-assessment "placet" by part of MoD) but instead strike the most profitable targets among those for which exist an opened time -window for execution with low probability of presence of opposition by part of AD systems (in particular Панцирь-С1 and  Бук).

3) Operational protocols for IAF offensive operations has deeply changed in the last two years only in reason of the modernization of legacy Soviet AD systems completed by Federation specialists and increased presence of the deadly (but very few for theirs luck) mobile more modern ones.
For one, practically all the the air-to-ground operations has been transformed in stand-off munition delivery ,mostly from lebanese air space. The unique instances where the protocols has been breached ,even for a very short time, the result has been the downing or damaging up to beyond-repair of the aircraft involved.  
That forced measure has not only deeply reduced the offensive potential of IAF, but particularly in the last year has also often conducted to failed or low impact operations when a different percentage of those munitions (depending on the AD system available) has been destroyed before reach its target area .

4) Israel enjoy a foundamental ,huge strategic advantage that majority of analysts overlook or ,more simply, do not want to mention : all its enemies know it own nuclear weapons.  
That element by itself is the reason for which a state geographically devoid of the most basic strategical deepness do not have all its air bases reduced to the level of Luhansk and Donetsk airports since day one.
Reality is that not nation even only dare to plan a similar attack, that would literally put the same Israel existence at heavy risk, depriving suddenly it of the military arms on which its defence is historically based because of the risk of even a devastating even only limited nuclear response by part of Israel.
Obviously Israel is perfectly aware of the dynamics and enormous impact of this unilateral strategic element and this is the main reason for which it attempt in any way to prevent any other player in ME theatre to achieve the same advantage.

In other words.. the Syrian conflict is an unique case ,that rarely happens in wars anywhere ever.
1)Israel have intelligence in the ground.. All ISIS and Alqaeda terrorist can spy for Israel and supply information
to them.
2) Syria large parts is under occupation of US and allies..so the distance missiles need to travel is just 20k to 30 km to hit Syria positions or Russia positions.
3)You have American drones and spy planes Freely traveling all around Syria , taking photos ,for later pass it to the missiles ,TERCOM data...to help the navigation of the missiles.
4)Russia rules of engagement ,this is the biggest gift to Israel.. you can bomb all you want we will do nothing. and only Syria will fight.. So there is no negative consequences for Israel attacking Syria.. and Israel nuclear weapons makes Syria think twice about retaliating Israel...so only limit to defense..
5)Syria surrounded by enemies..Under occupation by all its neighbors and on top US and a 30 nation coalitions flying over Syria freely. and Syria is a small country , that don't have enough space to create extended layers of defenses..

So is easy to praise Israel with so much monumental from NATO and their terrorist rebels help...as "how smart they are".. but as i told before , none of this attacks will be possible for Israel..had the rules of engament were different.. is for example Syria had nuclear weapons ,provided by CHiNA.. and Syria army controlled all its territory ,and had the same air defenses it have today.. then Israel will not be allowed to fly anywhere close to Syria... if Israel bomb 1 time.. Syria will bomb Israel back.. this is a totally different scenario.. and Israel will not dare to continue attacking Syria if Syria had powerful nukes with iskanders missiles.. If Israel was located in Azerbaijan ,and had IRAN as neighbors..
and IRAN had nukes too.. the story will have been totally different.. Israel will have no neighbor to fly ,to way to HIT and RUn..since IRAN will bomb Israel back with as much force as Israel hit.. and Israel will be afraid of IRAN using nukes.. on them.. so none of this fighting will be happening.. Israel respect Force... and this is a fact.. and they will never dare to attack IRAN or Syria if they had hundreds of advanced nukes each one.. So a nuclear deterrence definitively helps in stopping hostilities of enemies.. specially when major warnings are told ,of readyness for war if attacked.

GarryB wrote:

Only if you redefine the term good.

To create the state of Israel... murder, terrorism, theft, rape, kidnapping... all sorts of crimes.

Now they fight Palestinians trying to create their own state, their own country and they are getting back what they gave but now it is wrong.

I wont go into politics here, i am just talking about Jews as people. They are hard working and skilled people.

Politics are everywhere painful topic, there is one "Israel" in every region of the world.

flamming_python wrote:Just to clarify to some of the people that don't know any better.

Jew is not synonymous with Israeli. Despite what Zionist propaganda may have you think (and by repeating this mantra you are only reinforcing it)

One is a religion (and only a religion). The other is a nationality.
Religion. Nationality.
Religion. Nationality.

Comprendido?

Jews are non-proselytizing ethnoreligious group.

flamming_python wrote:

There sure as hell is.

Albania is the Israel of the Balkans (+ Kosovo now).
Poland is the Israel of Eastern Europe.
Taiwan is the Israel of East Asia.
Columbia is the Israel of South America.
Georgia is the Israel of the Caucasus.
The Kurds are the new Israel of the Middle East.

And it goes on like this. It's politics. Formula is as follows: pick out a minority ethnic or ideological group in the region with big enemies and promise them endless military and financial support; in return for both adopting American culture and influence whole-sale, and exclusivity - no deals with other great powers.
It has shit-all to do with genetics or the rest of this rubbish.

Well Albania, Kosovo and i must add Croatia to the pile regarding Balkan.

flamming_python wrote:

There's nothing ethno about them. They are a religion. There is no such ethnicity as 'Jew'. {}
Yet they are all still Jews. Why? The religion, and nothing else.

When and How Was the Jewish People Invented? - by Shlomo Sand, Professor of History at Tel Aviv University, 78-1-84467-422-0 2009,
You can buy it on Amazon

Vann7 wrote:
The experience the Syrian army gained fighting terrorist in urban zones for 7 years,
combined with Russia Airforce close air support and developed tactics ,will be invaluable for many decades.
and in the last 2 weeks alone , the attacks of NATO with 105 missiles and from Israel on storages depots will be a gold
mine in knowledge for Russia in understanding what kind of tactics NATO will use in the future. This also will benefits
enormously IRAN ,CHINA and Syria too ..and all nations not aligned with NATO. Because they will have access to the
information gained by Russia and also their weapons....  

The losses caused by repeated Israeli attacks are very painful, in both material and psychological terms (its absolutely galling to endure constant abuse due to the risks of responding in kind). But there is an upside: Syria is learning about Israeli capabilities, and will be able to plan countermeasures well before attention is finally refocused on enemy #1.

starman wrote:

Vann7 wrote:
The experience the Syrian army gained fighting terrorist in urban zones for 7 years,
combined with Russia Airforce close air support and developed tactics ,will be invaluable for many decades.
and in the last 2 weeks alone , the attacks of NATO with 105 missiles and from Israel on storages depots will be a gold
mine in knowledge for Russia in understanding what kind of tactics NATO will use in the future. This also will benefits
enormously IRAN ,CHINA and Syria too ..and all nations not aligned with NATO. Because they will have access to the
information gained by Russia and also their weapons....  

The losses caused by repeated Israeli attacks are very painful, in both material and psychological terms (its absolutely galling to endure constant abuse due to the risks of responding in kind). But there is an upside: Syria is learning about Israeli capabilities, and will be able to plan countermeasures well before attention is finally refocused on enemy #1.

Indeed it will be impossible to measure the important knowledge Syria and more importantly Russia
will get from this conflict..of NATO nuclear powers ,ISIS and Israel tactics. all of them Enemies of Russia

One key element is all this Fighting in Syria.. For the success of this zioNATO +ALQAEDA/ISIS alliance
in capturing cities , while reducing largely the air power efficiency.. are

1)The fast mobilization of the terrorist in pickup trucks,spread in large open areas.
2)And how critical was for Terrorist to capture cities full of civilians ,to use them as human shields.

The civilians kidnapped was their Big card...not only allowed terrorist to avoid being bombed if there
was civilians near them ,but also even if they defeated , allows them to make negotiate to retreat to another
place with their "Familities"/favorite womens kidnapped and children they got after raping them.

This means that Russia government needs to completely rethink the way they build cities in the future in Russia federation, so they can't be captured easily as was in Syria but also how critical is the communication and alliance with most society ,to spot forming terrorist cells early on ,before they grow..  Aleppo city for example. .a city with 1 million of citizens..was captured half of it.. in just 1 day....and took later 5 years to liberate it.. So Syria government was highly not prepared for this kind of war. And new weapons and aircraft and drones  will need to be invented too..something that last long fighting and not out of ammo quick..  perhaps energy weapons to kill soft targets..microwave guns ,laser etc..something that either fly or on tracks that have unlimited ammo.  Many times battles victories are decided by who runs out of ammo first. So energy based portable weapons ,will need to be invented too...  Russia will need revive their tank laser project  because and create fortress in every city close to Russian borders ,to prevent any scenario of Syria.. that dozens of thousands of terrorist in pickups ,lead by suicide car bombs take control fast of cities and its civilians too.


None of this terrorist in Syria will have lasted more than a month fighting in any city and none will have allowed to
relocate to another place ,if they had no civilians kidnapped.. and they bombed non stop so not allowed to build
underground bunkers.

Also another thing that is largely not mentioned.. the Elephant in the room.is how all this Terrorism ,its main
encubator is ISLAM. Not all muslim are religious driven terrorist , only a small minority.. true.. but all religious fanatics terrorist always or almost exclusively vast majority of the times comes from Muslim communities. and all this is consequence of the same religion , and its very Ambiguous teachings ,that are materialistic politically driven and
can be interpreted in any way anyone desire. You don't see this phenomenon happening in any other religion..
Catholics fighting Evangelicals with guns ,to convert them to their ideology. So is a major hole that exist in ISLAM,
that Zionist Powers ,have understood very well how to exploit. for their benefit,. brainwashing and radicalization of muslim society is very easy..whether anyone is pro religions or not.. atheist or not.. the fact is Islam is being used as a weapon by the Western Powers cannot be questioned. But this religious /sectarian wars ,of people trying to impose
their ideas on others by Force..are only possible under Islamist communities and not any other religion or neither between atheist communities.

So, it wasn't an ammo dump of Grad and mortar shells after all?


Tobias Schneider
‏Verified account @tobiaschneider
2h2 hours ago

US officials tell NBC that recent Israeli strikes in Hama/Aleppo targeted Iranian shipment of anti-aircraft missiles.

Remarkably stable area occupied by ISIS with no real progress for many months. Looks like the SDF have lost the will, or orders, to clear the areas.

JohninMK wrote:


Babak Taghvaee
‏ @BabakTaghvaee
1h1 hour ago

BREAKING: An unnamed source in #USAF says Crews of 3 F-15Is of #Israel Air Force which bombed #IRGC assets such as SAM systems near #Hama & #Aleppo has probably used deceptive call-signs & IFF codes & etc to be seen as #USAF's F-15Es for deceiving #Syria/ #Russia SAM operators.


Ian Grant
‏ @Gjoene
3h3 hours ago

Ian Grant Retweeted Wael

In this scenario, @CJTFOIR would be informed by #Israel in order to avoid confusement/engagements, and thus @CJTFOIR would be indirectly involved in striking #Syrian/#Iranian targets in #Syria


Wael
????????
‏ @WaelAlRussi
4h4 hours ago

Here’s how #Israel attacked #Syria on 29/4/2018 using the Coalition fly zones against the #SAA

Israel after many attempts to penetrate the Syrian airspace from the west, they’re now using the east, which is poorly covered by radars, where they can blend within the Coalition jets

Those sunnite countries are totally under US and israeli controle specially the new saudi king. And they don't understand that after chiite countries will be destroyed it will be their turn because USA always need an enemy and a war to keep their people togather because if they start at looking at their own problem there will be a civil war in USA and it almost started with Trump election.

Well that explains a lot of the oddities in this recent strike, but what exactly did they blow up??
I very much doubt that it was simply "anti-aircraft missiles", because most of that comes from Russia anyway.

Either way, it's clear that the coalition gives "zero" F's if their aircrafts get shot down by mistake now.
Also that the Uber Israeli capabilities can't defeat Syrian defenses.

@Johninmk

This map of supposed usraeli attack over Syria , against " Iranian SAM " storage , does not make sense . And I don't think it is true . There is many disadvantages and limitations going this route . For no apparent gain :

(1) First these jets need cooperation of two Arab states . Not particularly friendly to them . And one that is a virtual ally of Iran . And as such would not give fly over permission . And could potentially easily shoot down the refulling tanker at least .

(2) Second , darting out of coalition operating area would still make them visible to Syrian radar . Just as much as if they attacked across the short route . Over the med . Like previous attack from Lebanon .

(3) Since the rules of engagement of Russia , I think allow only engagement of Usraeli plane by Syrian AD , over Syrian airspace , then the Usraeli could have easily released these over Med , to reach target .

(4) But I finally think that this attack was by yank . Despite usraeli reputation for air force . Because these SDB were released in large number . Needing many fighters to carry . Higher detection risk . But also these SDB do not carry well inside bay of modern jet . And fitting them to fighters only started in 2016 . But B2 can carry several hundred . Specialist operator . Single plane and low rcs . Sneak attack .

( 5 ) I don't think missile depot was hit . I think it was ordinary ammo dump . Belonging to Syria .



This whole story seems wrong . More like yank hitting from med . Ordinary dump . And usraeli making story to confuse the Arabs and set them against each other . Iranian will I am sure disperse any supplies quickly . With secure personnel . HUMINT and SIGINT not easy . Secure bunker .

nomadski wrote:@Johninmk

This map of supposed usraeli attack over Syria , against  " Iranian SAM " storage , does not make sense . And I don't think it is true . There is many disadvantages and limitations going this route . For no apparent gain :

(1) First these jets need cooperation of two Arab states . Not particularly friendly to them . And one that is a virtual ally of Iran . And as such would not give fly over permission . And could potentially easily shoot down the refulling tanker at least .

(2) Second , darting out of coalition operating area would still make them visible to Syrian radar . Just as much as if they attacked across the short route . Over the med . Like previous attack from Lebanon .

(3) Since the rules of engagement of Russia , I think allow only engagement of Usraeli plane by Syrian AD , over Syrian airspace , then the Usraeli could have easily released these over Med , to reach target .

(4) But I finally think that this attack was by yank . Despite usraeli reputation for air force . Because these SDB were released in large number . Needing many fighters to carry . Higher detection risk . But also these SDB do not carry well inside bay of  modern jet . And fitting them to fighters only started in 2016 . But B2 can carry several hundred . Specialist operator . Single plane and low rcs . Sneak attack .

( 5 ) I don't think missile depot was hit . I think it was ordinary ammo dump . Belonging to Syria .

This whole story seems wrong . More like yank hitting from med . Ordinary dump . And usraeli making story to confuse the Arabs and set them against each other . Iranian will I am sure disperse any supplies quickly . With secure personnel . HUMINT and SIGINT not easy . Secure bunker .

That's a bit cynical of you

That route makes a lot of sense. It was unexpected for a start. What if they flew all the way with US IFF? A single F-15 can carry a lot of SDB and incidently are all external, no internal weapons bays on a F-15.

Note, released by DoS not Pentagon or CENTCOM

The new Israeli Route.. to attack Syria.. Using Kurds Zones controlled by Americans.. that is very close
To Aleppo.. Clearly illustrate ,what i was saying.. in "how Smart" are the Israelis.. in taking advantage
of Syria geography limitations that don't control all its territories and so Israel is attacking from the zones
that are CLOSEST,, to the targets they intend to hit.. to not allow much time for the interception of their missiles..

But this is not about being "smart" this is the most logical thing to do... is not rocket science at all..
Simply Israel is taking advantage of 1)Russia Rules of Engagement 2)of The Zones Syria don't control ,to attack them.

So which zones Syria don't control ? Lebanon, Jordan ,northern Syria.. this are the places from where Israel attacks come.. in the future it could be Turkey airspace too...  So is not about skills at all... or "amazing" technology
or weapons the F-15s have...  Is simply taking advantage of Syria limitations of not having enough space to
deploy a dense layer of air defenses with enough time..

But all those who claims Israelis are so smart.. what will have happened if Israel did not had Nukes...
and did not had the support of NATO or US at all.. Then Syria ,Hebolah and IRAN will already have destroyed'
ISRAEL airports and its combat planes long time ago.. and Israel over run . and Russia providing weapons to them.
Israel not even make their own planes.. The bomb used by Israel was made in America.. So enough of the non sense.
Israel is in reality a paper tiger nation... and their power emanates from the support of US and NATO and from its nuclear deterrence...  but had things were reversed.. and US and NATO supporting Syria... what chances will had Israel to defend its nation? ZERO...   Such a  tiny country will be encircle by enemies , and any airbase in ISRAEL will be withing 20km -30km of distance from mediterranean sea or from Jordan.. a SUpersonic missile will cover that distance
in just 25 seconds.. imagine that.. air defenses takes like 10 to 20 seconds to adquire targets.. it will have been like shooting fish in a barrel with a shotgun... easy .. and With Israel very small army .. they have no chance to survive an
IRANIAN ,Syria invasion.. All Israel power comes from US/UK protection,weapons ,economical aid in the @billions every year to develop its military and intelligence ..and political support. Israel protections comes from NATO and the banking industry ,which they influence.. thats it.. there is nothing smart about their military.. they actually were beaten by hezbolah which was a military group without airforce and navy..Israel lost naval warships to hezbolah and a destroyer to Egypt in previous war.. just facing small torpedo boats.  The day US empire collapse , Israel will be dust.. no longer will have support or protection..and only its nukes will be their only deterrence.

Israel "Accuracy" and bypassing Syria air defenses ,is no other thing ,that they 1)launching missiles from very close distance , 2)allowed to launch missiles with impunity ,(no S-300s or S-400s used)  3)Taking advantage that Syria
cannot fight another war after 7 years of losing soldiers..  and can only limit to a very limited self defensive policy..

But what will have happened if things were inverted? That US,NATO,Saudi Arabia and ALL Israel neighbors,Jordan,Syria  and Egypt.. were infiltrating terrorist in Israel borders for 7 years? and Israel economy
was under total sanctions from US and EUrope? and Israel did not had nukes?  and the only Thing Israel had was its current army and airforce ? Definitively Israel will NOT have survived at all.. will have collapsed in just 6 months of fight... So really not impressed.. anyone that thinks Israel deserves any credit.. is only because do not see
all the major advantages Israel receive from its NATO and middle east allies and neither see all the limitations that Syria needs to face ,for already having NATO flying over its airspace with impunity ,because for good or bad , Russia neither could enforce a no fly zone for foreign airforces in Syria without sending a full scale airforce deployment and very large military force to enforce it.. Something that will be very $$Expensive for Russia economy and which is what Russia did not wanted to do.. So Russia is doing the right thing.. it developed a policy ,that will give Russia time to slowly defeat terrorist..by avoiding whenever possible a direct confrontation with NATO or any of Syria neighbors.

To really measure Israel capabilities ,it should be trying to bomb a country that is in full control of all its territory
and have plenty of space to defend its territory.. If Israel tried to bomb Russia from black sea.  LOL their planes will be shut down 400km to 500km away and will not stand a chance to ever strike with a single missile... and it will be suicide for ISrael navy to try attack Russia from the black sea.. So Even Americans understand this huge advantages Russia have fighting on its own territory.. All Russia federation territory becomes an unsinkable aircraft carrier..and Russia can stop NATO in Ukraine too.. reason why US and neither Israel will ever try to do in Ukraine ,what is doing in Syria..
There will be no Free fly zones for any foreign country over any part of Russia territory and Russia will not limit
its operations to Russia territory ,will strike any plane hostile to Russia at any border country,all the way to 600km way. with their s-500.  

So is important to no confuse Limitations that Syria have to defend itself.. ie.. being 7 years in war and near half of its territory invaded and Syria surrounded by hostile nations to them.. with Russia limited help for economical reasons.. versus real capabilities of a country.  For me what is impressive ,is not Israel perforance ,taking a huge advantage of NATO support there and the war Syria face.. for me what is impressive is how Russia managed to drive back ,ALL NATO/Israel backed terrorist ,to the point that Americans had to create zones of protection for them with kurds help,so that Russia don't completely wipe them. Russia operations in Syria thats takes skills... Israel operations in Syria requires ZERO SKILLS.. when they are allowed to endlessly bomb Syria from standoff position ,flying overzones Syria don't control ,and bombing Syria without consequences.

It will be interesting to see how Russia airforce can do.. if 4 combat planes launch surprise attacks with salvos of a dozen of supersonic missiles ,withing 30km of distance of israeli military bases.. they will be lucky to intercept just
two missiles of 12. Israel geography is even worse ,than the Syrian one ,, and the only thing they have its their nuclear deterrence to really stop another country from trying to bomb them.

GarryB wrote:Assad could say to the Turks... thank you for stabilising the north of our country and preventing a Kurdish uprising... if you would like to hand back those territories to us we will ensure no kurdish threat to your southern border.

This will be a test to see if Turkey really is interested in peace and was not just land grabbing...

Turkey does not want to grab land. It is totally illogical. It is not like Hatay in 1939. Why would Turkey grab a piece of land whose justification would be very hard and in return gives almost nothing but absolute pain. Hatay was different because it was never handed over Syrian authorities, and it was marked as an autonomous region within French mandate of Syria. Reason that it was made as such was the fact that Hatay is a Turcoman region although some Arabic influence is present. Syria's claim on Hatay refers to a date when there was no Syria at all, so it is harder to claim Hatay as Syrian than it is for, say, Aleppo as Turkish (although Aleppo has some Turkish history)

So briefly, ultimate aim for Turkey was never an easy peasy land grab but instead to prevent further PKK access to Mediterranean. Even I dont think that observation posts that Turkey sets up far away from the border will remain as they are. There is no point to hold those regions. But Russian FM Lavrov urged Turkey to be fast in launching those, so Turkey did.

The reason for that , IMO, is not that Russia likes HTS or JTS but instead wants to suppress the possibility of escalation in that region when SAA deals with Southern front. Actually, Turkey was interested in Northern Idlib zone, closer to the border. But Turks honored the Astana agreement faster than it was actually needed. Lavrov is happy now I guess.

After SAA is ready for Idlib, I think Turkish forces will retreat north of Idlib and set up new bases there. That will constitute the line after which Turkish preemptive border security begins, whose presence does not affect Russian interests at all.

Turkey will not be there forever but you can be sure that Turkish army will also not hand over those lands to Assad. Assad was a bad guy for Turkey and he will be so in the future. If everything becomes normal and a new fresh government without Shiite/Alawite zealots is formed, then it will be handed over totally.

Russians are Orthodox Christians and they might not know what actually lies under Islamic sectarian clashes, but it would be better to know that an average Alawite zealot will bring you nothing but further chaos, not lesser than a Khariji zealot (ISIS's zeal)

This was actually extreamely dangerous move from Israelis, using US IFF codes and squacks to represent themselves as US planes. Most probably US gave them to Israelis and help organizing their flight through deconflicting line with Russians. Next time Russians and Syrians will start shoting down all US planes because of Israelis and all this could quickly escalate into nuclear war. Israel is playing with nuclear war.