Syrian War: News #17

If they are intercepted that get blown out of the sky, leaving nothing left.

If they are JAMMED then they fall assuming it's from a reasonable height, buddy you are way over your head.

Learn the difference between jammed and intercepted.

They also quite wrong, the attack was launched suddenly Russia nor Syria would have had time to set up FLIR for all the intercepts or any at all.

The reason there is virtually no FLIR footage of air to air is that it happens far to suddenly for it to be set up.

This is why there is always FLIR of air to the ground because that was set up beforehand.


Again be quiet armchair general, waste of time.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:If they are intercepted that get blown out of the sky, leaving nothing left.

If they are JAMMED then they fall assuming it's from a reasonable height, buddy you are way over your head.

Learn the difference between jammed and intercepted.

They also quite wrong, the attack was launched suddenly Russia nor Syria would have had time to set up FLIR for all the intercepts or any at all.

The reason there is virtually no FLIR footage of air to air is that it happens far to suddenly for it to be set up.

This is why there is always FLIR of air to the ground because that was set up beforehand.


Again be quiet armchair general, waste of time.

Attack sudden?

The French CdA literally phoned the Russian Command in Syria, because the US were trying to delay the launch sequence.

No FLIR you say, Guess what this is?




Please, STOP. TALKING.

AlfaT8 wrote:Honestly, i very much doubt the Russians had offered much assistance here, other than training and forwarding tracking data.

We know that the Syrians have unlike the Iraqis (who were sanctioned) and the Libyans (who were stupid), bought a solid collection of modern short to medium ranged Air-Defense systems, as well as upgrading their existing platforms.

On top of that, it is very counter productive for the Russians to defend Syria for the Syrians and makes way more sense to just train the Syrians to defend themselves, there is no guaranty that Russia gonna keep sticking around.

More importantly, a lot of people really don't grasp just how perfect an opportunity it was for Russia to gather data on the performance of their air-defense assets, especially given the mix of current and legacy systems in the area.
Also how well their training is actual working.

Overall it's an intelligence gold mine, IMO.

I actually think the contrary, this was a Russian/US circus show mostly because Trump "run" his mouth twice. The bottom line, is this, there is no way that the Syrians would have kept the detecting and IR footage of tracking and intercepting under wraps for this long. They just don't do that. Heck their own soldiers actually filmed just next to the Pantsirs when the systems were busy detecting and intercepting.

For the rest, I don't disagree, this was a real simulation exercise and both sides tried to do this by the book. For instance at no point did Russia sent planes to keep French fighters out of range or cause disruption.

AlfaT8 wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:I actually think the contrary, this was a Russian/US circus show mostly because Trump "run" his mouth twice. The bottom line, is this, there is no way that the Syrians would have kept the detecting and IR footage of tracking and intercepting under wraps for this long. They just don't do that. Heck their own soldiers actually filmed just next to the Pantsirs when the systems were busy detecting and intercepting.

For the rest, I don't disagree, this was a real simulation exercise and both sides tried to do this by the book. For instance at no point did Russia sent planes to keep French fighters out of range or cause disruption.

So, that's where your conclusion comes from, well it could also just be that the Russians requested the footage and the secrecy, after all, since at least Trumps Tweet, they did have more then enough time to make such a request, but that's just my opinion.

While we're mostly on the same page, I still do think that the guys who were manning the GBADS were Russians.

Also it seems that in the two other targets at least 5 missiles went rogue.

Oh and Wreckage of Scalp EG, the real deal.

https://twitter.com/warsmonitoring/status/985488683758505985

Just baffled on why the SyAA is not showing the supposed pile of shot down tomahawk parts. Come on guys we're approaching one week since this attack now!

Day before yesterday these Syrians got laughed at by the spoof Elint attack from Israel, launching missiles wildly at nothing. This is not looking good.

lulldapull wrote:Just baffled on why the SyAA is not showing the supposed pile of shot down tomahawk parts. Come on guys we're approaching one week since this attack now!

Day before yesterday these Syrians got laughed at by the spoof Elint attack from Israel, launching missiles wildly at nothing. This is not looking good.

Exactly what I said in a few posts above. No FLIR footage or wrecks of tomahawks.

Only photo of a storm shadow and it is taken at a deceptive angle making it impossible to tell whether it was a left overs from it hitting the target or actual shoot down.

Starting to look very embarrassing for Russian and Syrian PVO.

And they got fooled yesterday launching missiles at false targets. Not that I believe US claims about missiles shot down but objective evidence and lack there off is telling me that Syrian AD is just as incompetent as ever, even with Russian supervision.

Mindless_drone wrote:

lulldapull wrote:Just baffled on why the SyAA is not showing the supposed pile of shot down tomahawk parts. Come on guys we're approaching one week since this attack now!

Day before yesterday these Syrians got laughed at by the spoof Elint attack from Israel, launching missiles wildly at nothing. This is not looking good.

Exactly what I said in a few posts above. No FLIR footage or wrecks of tomahawks.

Only photo of a storm shadow and it is taken at a deceptive angle making it impossible to tell whether it was a left overs from it hitting the target or actual shoot down.

Starting to look very embarrassing for Russian and Syrian PVO.

And they got fooled yesterday launching missiles at false targets. Not that I believe US claims about missiles shot down but objective evidence and lack there off is telling me that Syrian AD is just as incompetent as ever, even with Russian supervision.

Hahah, listen it is a funny way to ignore the elephant in the room and I really don't give two bits about what is in your head. I just gave you detailed, open source BDA which shows right on the spot that 5 (at least) CM's didn't actually hit their target, one clearly didn't explode but was either intercepted or fell from the sky and that the French (at least) are lying between their teeth.

If the Russians wanted to spoof the media, they only need about a dozen carcasses of TLAM's and they already have those at disposal.

So this becomes really easy for me. You two can keep doing whatever you thing is best to do, but that's not the best way to build credibility. Meanwhile I'm going to enjoy those special field plowing benevolent 3 million a pop SCALP's. At least France did something good for Syria for once.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Mindless_drone wrote:

lulldapull wrote:Just baffled on why the SyAA is not showing the supposed pile of shot down tomahawk parts. Come on guys we're approaching one week since this attack now!

Day before yesterday these Syrians got laughed at by the spoof Elint attack from Israel, launching missiles wildly at nothing. This is not looking good.

Exactly what I said in a few posts above. No FLIR footage or wrecks of tomahawks.

Only photo of a storm shadow and it is taken at a deceptive angle making it impossible to tell whether it was a left overs from it hitting the target or actual shoot down.

Starting to look very embarrassing for Russian and Syrian PVO.

And they got fooled yesterday launching missiles at false targets. Not that I believe US claims about missiles shot down but objective evidence and lack there off is telling me that Syrian AD is just as incompetent as ever, even with Russian supervision.

Hahah, listen it is a funny way to ignore the elephant in the room and I really don't give two bits about what is in your head. I just gave you detailed, open source BDA which shows right on the spot that 5 (at least) CM's didn't actually hit their target, one clearly didn't explode but was either intercepted or fell from the sky and that the French (at least) are lying between their teeth.

If the Russians wanted to spoof the media, they only need about a dozen carcasses of TLAM's and they already have those at disposal.

So this becomes really easy for me. You two can keep doing whatever you thing is best to do, but that's not the best way to build credibility. Meanwhile I'm going to enjoy those special field plowing benevolent 3 million a pop SCALP's. At least France did something good for Syria for once.

So because scalp had a bigger CEP and missed some targets that’s proof that Syrian AD shot down a bunch of missiles.

What kind of fallacy is that? False equivalence maybe?

Mindless_drone wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Mindless_drone wrote:

lulldapull wrote:Just baffled on why the SyAA is not showing the supposed pile of shot down tomahawk parts. Come on guys we're approaching one week since this attack now!

Day before yesterday these Syrians got laughed at by the spoof Elint attack from Israel, launching missiles wildly at nothing. This is not looking good.

Exactly what I said in a few posts above. No FLIR footage or wrecks of tomahawks.

Only photo of a storm shadow and it is taken at a deceptive angle making it impossible to tell whether it was a left overs from it hitting the target or actual shoot down.

Starting to look very embarrassing for Russian and Syrian PVO.

And they got fooled yesterday launching missiles at false targets. Not that I believe US claims about missiles shot down but objective evidence and lack there off is telling me that Syrian AD is just as incompetent as ever, even with Russian supervision.

Hahah, listen it is a funny way to ignore the elephant in the room and I really don't give two bits about what is in your head. I just gave you detailed, open source BDA which shows right on the spot that 5 (at least) CM's didn't actually hit their target, one clearly didn't explode but was either intercepted or fell from the sky and that the French (at least) are lying between their teeth.

If the Russians wanted to spoof the media, they only need about a dozen carcasses of TLAM's and they already have those at disposal.

So this becomes really easy for me. You two can keep doing whatever you thing is best to do, but that's not the best way to build credibility. Meanwhile I'm going to enjoy those special field plowing benevolent 3 million a pop SCALP's. At least France did something good for Syria for once.

So because scalp had a bigger CEP and missed some targets that’s proof that Syrian AD shot down a bunch of missiles.

What kind of fallacy is that? False equivalence maybe?

One? I count 5 for the Bigger CW bunker and At least one for the smaller bunker.That's 6 out of 29 that weren't on target and according to description we know Smaller bunker was an entirely French affair. Bigger CEP? SCALPS shouldn't have "bigger CEP" they are DSMAC/GPS guided like all the ammo that was used. But they miss these targets in a typical pattern. This is bad coordinate input, not failure to go through.

So so far in the other targets we have a 20% failure rate on impacts alone, but for Barzeh we have 100% with basically the same kind of ordnance? It's not a fallacy, I am looking at all available real information, non BS.

If I was to check it out on my own, that would mean that the 20% failure rate is an anomaly for these kind of missions. And xe have a pattern. The bigger the target, the bigger the spread, the bigger the failure rate.

1/7 for smaller bunker.
5/22 for bigger bunkers
15/40-45 for Barzeh?

Ironically the 7/30 from the Russian Mod for Barzeh is actually to be found in Him-Shinshar.

@KoTeMoRe

Nice to see you posting, thank you for the input.

what ever the reasons maybe for not showing downed tomahawks.......pieces/ components, debris.......comeon guys.

Out of 103 tomahawks something should remain? no? at least the ones intercepted/ shot down?

I don’t think the US fired 105 missiles.

The US said 105 missiles, the Russians and Syrians say 103.

Maybe 30-40. Syria probably got a few and the rest hit empty building like the research center and those shacks in the countryside.

Why is your version any more or less plausible than the story from the US or Russia?

Especially when you admit you really have no clue and are just assuming both are lying and that the truth is somewhere in the middle of the two factions involved...

And if Russia isn’t lying, how would posting FlIR footage of intercepts provoke the US into launching 300-500 missiles?

Should it not be a requirement that the US shows FLIR footage of each missile impact?

Russia didn't claim to shoot down anything, it was the Syrian batteries under their command that shot down the targets... what makes you think there even is any FLIR footage of anything except the BUK and Pantsir systems? Does Syrian OSA or SA-13 batteries or SA-3 batteries or SA-6 batteries even have FLIR?

And again, to what benefit? The western media wont give such footage a second look... they will claim it is falsified and actually shows one of the many exercises in Russia against cruise missile targets... they do it all the time BTW (exercises... not video falsification).

If 105 wasn’t enough the pentagon already knows they failed. Why not launch more?

The western media is lapping up how successful it was.. how could they justify launching more?

Also it doesn’t matter how many assets Russia has in Syria or not. You don’t stop a 300-500 cruise missile barrage with AD.

That is probably why they stopped at 105.... if they had decided to launch more there were Su-35s there that can carry Onyx mach 2 anti ship missiles and naval vessels there that can launch rocket propelled missiles that deliver torpedoes to attack subs... and it would not take much to fly a Tu-22M3 down there with 2 Kh-32 Mach 4.5 rocket propelled anti ship missiles with an estimated range of about 800km... perhaps that is why the US declared victory and stopped attacking.

Who knows.

The Russians and Syrians were certainly expecting more than 100 missiles launched at them.

You stop it by attacking the platforms.

Very true, and I suspect Russia sent the message to the US that they will deal with their attack... if you want to overwhelm the defences then they will need to escalate and target launch platforms and staging points... I suspect a larger attack was prevented because the US didn't want that sort of escalation.

I came here for honest debate. Not Russia or America ***** ideation.

This was a conflict between Russia and the US, there is no other way to paint it.

-Russia claims the impossible. That a small deployment of pantsir and buks stopped along with legacy sams stopped a massive cruise missile attack.

Ohh grow up, are you five years old?

The west already stated the attack was all about a supposed chemical attack in Damascus... it is pretty fucking obvious that the main targets they will engage are known chem labs or production facilities and air bases where they can justify their strikes as being the means and delivery system for Assads chem weapons.

With that in mind it does not take a genius to realise that if you put your air defence SAMs near such sites the cruise missiles will come to them.

Not only that the subsonic nature of the weapons means that an A-50U AWACS platform as well as ground based radar will give plenty of warning and directional information so the batteries can be up and running and waiting looking in the correct direction for the attack... an attack of relatively slow flying straight flying cruise missiles.

If you would kindly direct me to proof of downed tomahawks I would greatly appreciate as so far I have not been able to find any photos.

There are likely plenty of people combing the desert looking for parts, but the air defence crews will be on standby waiting for follow up attacks and reloading/rearming.

Overall though, Russia is much more corrupt. Trying to bribe a police officer out of giving you a speeding ticket in the US is very risky. In Russia it’s fairly easy.

Hahaahha.... yeah... Americans don't like money as much as Russians do... of course if you get a speeding ticket in the US and you are black you are just as likely to get shot...

Does the US really care about collateral damage or killing young people? According to this forum no. So why would killing college kids factor into America’s decision?

The fact that they went ahead with the strike anyway suggests we are right...

If so many were jammed/shot down. Where are the wrecks? Russia jamming them would also cause civilian casualties as they would just fly of around Damascus.

It is Syria... failed guidance is more likely to result in a smoking crater in the middle of the desert rather than dead bodies.

Haha the real armchair expert is you. Even people on your own forum are disageeeing with you saying there would be wrecks and FLIR.

Seriously how does it feel?

I realise it might make you very uncomfortable, but people here are allowed to disagree, and sometimes are even allowed independent thought.

I know that is not allowed in America where you are either with us or with the terrorists... or you are Russian...

I am surprised you say you are Russian and admit you correct your US friends all the time, but your gripe here is that we tow the Russian line too closely we must all be spies... or victims of Russian propaganda...

Just look the targets and think by yourself if 3 building needs 70 missiles to be destroyed. They lied so something went wrong so they lost some missiles.

Even more amusing is that despite not believing anyone his figures are not that much different from what has been described here... he says 30 odd missiles with some shot down... we say 103 or 105 missiles with 70 odd missiles shot down... that leaves 34-35 missiles... of course with rather a lot jammed... hahaha.


They used by their claims 105 missiles for three targets... they don't admit to shooting at airfields... so firing 30+ missiles at each of the three buildings hit sounds to me like they expected a lot of their missiles to be shot down at the planning level...

No FLIR you say, Guess what this is?

That information belongs to Syria... why would they release it... it might be useful for the US in planning attack number two...

Also how well their training is actual working.

Overall it's an intelligence gold mine, IMO.

Indeed they have plenty of SA-3 missiles that are given minor upgrades and would be used against cruise missiles, so this will likely give them data and performance information against real US weapons they can use to create further upgrades and modifications...

For their own missiles and missiles in many of their allies/customers inventories.

I actually think the contrary, this was a Russian/US circus show mostly because Trump "run" his mouth twice. The bottom line, is this, there is no way that the Syrians would have kept the detecting and IR footage of tracking and intercepting under wraps for this long. They just don't do that. Heck their own soldiers actually filmed just next to the Pantsirs when the systems were busy detecting and intercepting.

You don't think their Russian advisors would have suggested that that sort of information could be used by their enemy to evaluate the defences and do better next time?

For instance at no point did Russia sent planes to keep French fighters out of range or cause disruption.

Perhaps if there had been wave 4,5,6,7, and 8 there might have been interference in the launch platforms... simply to deal with the problem.

Syria has operated its systems since long ago they know them very well. The only thing they don't have is good early warning radars and awacs which was probably provided by russia. But to operate the systems I don't think they need russian. Maybe some advisors to translate from command post and awacs and supervise the operation but its unlikely they put russian crews in the systems.

I am pretty sure the whole point of not activating the S-400 and S-300V4 batteries and have them shoot down some missiles is so that Russia can use this event for sales... our training and a range of our systems that are available for sale right now and all you need is better C4IR to manage it... which we also sell... and you can defend yourself from a significant cruise missile attack.

Just baffled on why the SyAA is not showing the supposed pile of shot down tomahawk parts. Come on guys we're approaching one week since this attack now!

Where is the benefit of showing the west in a lie when the obvious response will be a larger attack with fewer holds barred?

Assad has already declared victory... why should he give a shit as to what the US or UK or French public think... they think he used Chem weapons... does he think they might believe some footage now?

Day before yesterday these Syrians got laughed at by the spoof Elint attack from Israel, launching missiles wildly at nothing. This is not looking good.

Further education... and more to learn... that is good... who got fooled and why... and how can it be determined next time if it is a real attack or fake.

Would have been hilarious if they had launched a Calibr attack on the launch origins and destroyed an Israeli airbase or port...

Out of 103 tomahawks something should remain? no? at least the ones intercepted/ shot down?

Well these cruise missiles do carry 300-400kg warheads... and surface to air missiles have HE warheads of 5kgs for SA-13, 30kgs for SA-22, and bigger for the other missile types... 50kg for OSA, 150kg for SA-17 and probably similar for SA-3...

Looking at the claimed results they look very close to the advertised intercept figures against cruise missile targets...


Pantsir-S1: 25 missiles fired, 23 hits scored.
0.92

Buk-M2: 29 missiles fired, 24 hits scored.
0.83

Kub: 21 missiles fired, 11 hits scored.
0.52

Strela-10: 5 missiles fired, 3 hits scored.
0.6

Osa: 11 missiles fired, 5 hits scored.
0.45

S-125: 13 missiles fired, 5 hits scored.
0.38

S-200: 8 missiles fired, 0 hits scored.
0.0

Can you outline the figures that seem rather extreme for upgraded old SAMs and new model SAMs designed to intercept cruise missiles?

I'm not disputing any figures Garry, all I'm wondering is where is the mountain pile of downed tomahawk components. That pile would be the first thing SyAA would/ should show off to silence all the critics.

That's all.

lulldapull wrote:I'm not disputing any figures Garry, all I'm wondering is where is the mountain pile of downed tomahawk components. That pile would be the first thing SyAA would/ should show off to silence all the critics.

I dunnoo....Maybe they decided to keep the best wreckage under wraps, for secret study and evaluation; it may improve AD performance later.

SturmGuard wrote:@KoTeMoRe

Nice to see you posting, thank you for the input.

Been busy lately, Thanks for your regards man.

lulldapull wrote:I'm not disputing any figures Garry, all I'm wondering is where is the mountain pile of downed tomahawk components. That pile would be the first thing SyAA would/ should show off to silence all the critics.

That's all.

Whose critics?

A close examination shows that there is no truth in Coalition figures. We don't know yet what Russia has, which is the right way to play bluff.

This comes from the Coalition's own images. Really lately I've been astonished by the propension from some people to turn the reality on its head.

Until the Russians get forth with material evidence, we have indeed only allegations on their behalf. But the issue is that we already have material evidence the Coalition bullshited its way out of this.

3 Points.

1. 100% success rate. We have amateur footage of interceptions. We have Sat and ground images of CM failures.
2. 76 missiles fired at Barzeh. We have no Impact points that would credit that claim. Again, mainly because the number is so astonishing, emergency services should literally drown in TLAM elements.
3. Barzeh was already cleared out by OPCW from the Chemical Centres list. Twice.

I totally agree with you on points 2 and 3. Why hit an already cleared complex of buildings which were known to be empty, not to mention devoid of any chem munitions or strategic value, and that too with 76 missiles. Only thing here is that the attack was meant to send a message to Assad that he himself/ leadership in syria could be targeted, or just to terrorize the Syrians/ destroy their infrastructure.

Now, coming to point 1.......can you please show/ link/ share those amateur intercept vids?

thanks.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

lulldapull wrote:I'm not disputing any figures Garry, all I'm wondering is where is the mountain pile of downed tomahawk components. That pile would be the first thing SyAA would/ should show off to silence all the critics.

That's all.

Whose critics?

A close examination shows that there is no truth in Coalition figures. We don't know yet what Russia has, which is the right way to play bluff.

This comes from the Coalition's own images. Really lately I've been astonished by the propension from some people to turn the reality on its head.

Until the Russians get forth with material evidence, we have indeed only allegations on their behalf. But the issue is that we already have material evidence the Coalition bullshited its way out of this.

3 Points.

1. 100% success rate. We have amateur footage of interceptions. We have Sat and ground images of CM failures.
2. 76 missiles fired at Barzeh. We have no Impact points that would credit that claim. Again, mainly because the number is so astonishing, emergency services should literally drown in TLAM elements.  
3. Barzeh was already cleared out by OPCW from the Chemical Centres list. Twice.

The hoped for side effect of moving as many terrorists as possible to Idlib


iad tawil
‏ @iadtawil
6h6 hours ago

About 975 militants killed, 3000+ injured, 10 tanks, 5 armored vehicles, 17 other vehicles destroyed, summary of 60 days of "rebels" infighting in #Idlib #Syria





A map showing the next area to be cut up into sections


Qalaat Al Mudiq
‏ @QalaatAlMudiq
1h1 hour ago

E. #Damascus: map showing current situation in E. #Qalamoun. Regime launched attack trying to isolate W. towns (under truce) from E. Mounts & force surrender.