Situation in Syria is very clear for anyone with a minimum of intellectual honesty :
1) In the latest four months
SAA had gained the upper hand in a way likely decisive for the ultimate outcome of the terrorist's lead civil war (and yes that include in perspective
also the North of Syria ,because
with the fall of Homs in the West of the Nation and the effective compression of the terrorist's lines of re-supply to the North-Eastern artery ,the
bulk of SAA would have been ,within 6-8 months ,redeployed in the Aleppo province to inflict the final blow)
2) The
momentary strategic response to the situation for the FSA (very likely conceived and
agreed upon with western intelligence operatives and in-field advisors ) has been to
commit almost all material and human resources in a "diversionary offensive" operations (naturally doomed in the middle terms at waste those last resources ,but offering some important near terms advantages)
in the symbolic Damascus and Latakia province aimed mostly at :
-
Gain some time on SAA's advance before the Geneva-2.
-
Provide an image of FSA as "still alive" in the Homs and Damascus area and still capable to mount an offensive....even if at the cost of the total annihilation of entire overstretched operative brigades of the terrorist rebels and of crucial material resources not replaceable in the South and West of Syria.
-
Allow the FSA forces in the North of the Syria to achieve and/or consolidate, without fear of a prompt SAA counter-offensive,
some gains to be presented and enlarged in the powerful and "friendly" western media resounding apparatus as a sort of response to the SAA victory's streak in the latest months , always in view of the Geneva-2 summit.
-
Attempt to present the "situation on the field" ,at Geneva-2, as of a nation effectively split in three area of control attempting also to "freeze" and formalize this strongly twisted picture with an agreement aimed at fracture Syrian unity "exchanging" the independence of Aleppo province, under terrorist control, with the interruption of those.....desperate....offensive in the Homs and Damascus area "divide et impera" 3)The
operational tempo of the war plan up-exposed is plummeted ruinously much before what foreseen by FSA's commanders and western planners ; the
rate of attrition of FSA forces ,for effect of SAA's ambush on the terrorist attacking forces lines of convergence and of SAA's fortified defense has been several times higher than what expected and the
SAA's counteroffensive in Latakia happened much before than what was in the plans.
In substance the entire operation failed totally in its initial objective to provide an "exchange token" for the Geneva-2 talks.
4) At this point
the unique credible option still open to avoid the total failure of the "engineered insurrection" in Syria, with lethal consequences for western future plans against Iran,
was to produce the "triggering element" for justify a western intervention (anyone can easily realize as the CW "red line" was conceived already from the beginning as a sort of safety valve of the western-backed insurrection in Syria in the event that all the factors would indicate its failure
).
This kind of childish "false flag" CW operations has been attempted several times in the latest months by FSA (since at least March, just when the situation on the field for the terrorists began to worsen exponentially faster and them desperately urged western weapons and direct intervention); naturally those ridiculous attempts back-leashed quickly at the first attempt of the most elementary scientific investigation on them,
Like with that of March 2013 , Vitaly Kudrin:
“Our experts took samples, examined them on the spot in laboratories that are certified by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, and came to the conclusion that the shell and sarin that was in it were homemade. There are quite clear and unambiguous conclusions concerning the fact that characteristics of both the shell and this very sarin do not meet the standards used in industrial production. According to our additional data, the shell and this substance were manufactured in February, 2013, in the Syrian territory, which was then under the control of the Syrian Free Army, by one of the groups, which was affiliated with this Syrian Free Army"
....and May 2013 , Carla del Ponte of UN Independent Commission of Inquiry on Syria :
Our investigators have been in neighbouring countries interviewing victims, doctors and field hospitals and, according to their report of last week which I have seen, there are strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof of the use of sarin gas, from the way the victims were treated,” Ms Del Ponte said in an interview broadcast on Swiss-Italian television on Sunday.
“This was used on the part of the opposition, the rebels, not by the government authorities,”
5) Like in the past ,
with the COMICALLY FALSE allegations of WMD presence in Iraq used by US to unlawfully attack Iraq ,violating meanly the International Law,
also this time the UNLAWFUL attack must precede the fact's check, because exactly like in the past , it would one more time bust, in an incontrovertible way, the ridiculous lies use as pretext for the unlawful attack. Any single Occam's factor and rational element :
SAA having the upper hand and FSA desperately asking for western arms and direct assistance through a NFZ,
the area hit (one with almost total absence of fighting terrorists ! ) ,
the time of execution (just when UN group of scientific inspectors, tasked to investigate on pasted CW's use allegations and strongly wanted just by Syrian authorities , had arrived in Damascus ) ,
the very suspect, irrational, urge of western authorities in blaming SAA for the event (in spite any rational element go in the exact opposite direction) and for attack before any independent scientific survey would be accomplished ,
the past samples of US false allegations used to attack unlawfully other sovereign nations ,
the past attempts of this type of "false flag" CW operations by part of FSA etc... ,
point to a clear and staged "FALSE FLAG ATTACK" by part of some group of FSA terrorists, aimed at provoke the maximum number of civilian victims and trigger the already prepared western intervention capable to overturn the events on the Syrian battlefields in FSA's favor.SolutionIn mine opinion the best solution at the moment would be for
Russia to declare any attack on Syrian territory, against SAA or FSA by any external power without an UN mandate or the definitive results of scientific surveys on the events ascertaining definitely the real side responsible for the CW attack , as a
DIRECT ATTACK TO RUSSIAN FEDERATION's OWN TERRITORY, with possibilities to directly destroy or neutralize any asset menacing it.
It would be also important to press for the result of the UN survey (naturally very strictly controlled) to be rendered publicly available on any media.
Very likely we would see president B. Obama crushed under a greater poor showing and more embarrassed than president Dwight D. Eisenhower after that facts had exposed the ridiculous series of lies it had uttered to the public opinion of entire world on the espionage missions of U2 over URSS.
:P