Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #6

http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/nato-turkey-annexation-of-north-syria-like-north-cyprus/

Turkey wants to annex Aleppo.

kvs wrote:

Erk wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:Israel claimed that one Russian plane just entered Israel air space. But Israel also commented that was an error and Russian plane meant no harm, so Israel didn't shoot it down and things solved peacefully.

Seems like the Jews are mocking the Turks.

https://www.rt.com/news/323885-israeli-airspace-shoot-down/

Since when is Golan part of Israel's airspace?

Golan Heights is an illegally occupied territory that is technically still part of Syria.

The same can be said of the alleged Turkish territory that was "violated" by the Russian jet (of course the claim is a total lie).
This is Syrian land annexed by Turkey during the 1930s:

Indeed.

Cyberspec wrote:The RuAF is still attacking convoys on the border...from a anti-gov account

New RuAF attack on Bab al-Salama border crossing with Turkey killed 7 ppl & destroyed 20 aid trucks
https://twitter.com/NorthernStork/status/671038136231862272

Buffer zone.. lol

Wondering how Erdogan and 50 US marines will get a "SAfe zone" in norther Syria without being
bombed. The new Engagement Rules of Erdogan.. of shoot to kill as soon Russia cross border
give Russia a perfect pretext to Russia or Syrian airforce shoot to kill any Turkey convoy who enters in Syria. The S-400s in combination with the S-300 in warship ( and if pantsirs follow the Russian army closing the border) then it will be a nightmare for any airforce ,to enter in Syria airspace and do any cover.

Best turkey can do without starting war with RUssia ,ie.. Attacking Russia again. is use thousands of refugees as human shields and get media so Russia cannot bomb. But sending
Refugees to the middle of a war zone can be seen as a war crime.

https://twitter.com/syria24english/status/671185968351735808

Another Turkish convoy bites the dust moments ago.

max steel wrote:If Sukhoi can carry AAMs then F-16 can also carry jamming pod and while big fighter can potentially carry more powerful jamming pod , fighter with lower radar cross section will benefit more from jamming so it isn't a clear cut fight for Russia?

If jammers are equal.. both missiles will fail.. but not guns.. and Russian planes will defeat
NATO planes  in a dog fight ,thanks to its 3d thrust vector engines.
Also don't forget about Pantsirs gatling gun.. it will turn into french cheeze any plane.
you can't jam high caliber bullets.  

Aside Infra red sensor ,heat seeking missiles can be useful against jamming.. since not guide
by radio.. lazer guided missiles too.. unless the plane have anti lazer defenses.  too many
variables.  

What im sure.. is that NATO will try to test S-400 defenses.. they cannot miss such opportunity.
so they could launch drones and sacrifice them.. flying close to Russian base.. but also missiles.

So if you ask me.. i think NATO will setup a plane ,from Turkey a crappy old one..and equip it with the best counter electronics ,jammers ,avionics of the F-16s.. in other words.. with will be the best F-16 NATO have but with a different body of an old plane. And they could send a fanatic muslin inside ,to sacrifice its life.. and his goal will be to trey to evade the Russian defenses.  So expect Turkey to send again more planes inside Syria with the intention to try to
test Russian defenses. To see how to defeat Russian defenses.  Russia will do good to have small range air defenses near turkey border ,like pantsirs ,TOR or buks with 30km to 50km range. To not have to use Russia best defenses.

The weapon im more worried is Rail Gun Cannon.. US could deploy them close to Turkey border close,and hidden in bushes ,to intercept Russian planes flying in linear predictable course. is a perfect weapon for terrorism..since you can shoot down any plane and keep hidden your hand.
it will not show up the projectile in radars. So Russian sattelites will need to scan well what is happening inside Turkey ,the movement of equipment.

BKP wrote:Have a persistent feeling that something big is going to happen soon.

I have had that since the Odessa massacre man. It keeps getting stronger everyday.

Erdogan more isolated than ever on Syria

Erdogan’s "feel good moment" backfires

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/11/syria-turkey-russian-warplane-shot-down-aftermath-erdogan.html

The most notable consequence so far of Turkey’s shooting down a Russian fighter Nov. 24 has been a possible opening for a deepening of Russia’s cooperation with the US-led coalition against the Islamic State and a free fall in Turkish-Russian relations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Francois Hollande agreed Nov. 26 to share information about targets in Syria and to strike “only terrorists.” Putin added that Russia is “ready to cooperate” with the US-led anti-Islamic State coalition.

Credit for the inspired diplomacy of turning crisis into opportunity goes to Hollande and US President Barack Obama, who apparently have decided that the overall objective of ending the war in Syria should not be held hostage to Turkey’s aggressive response to the Russian warplane’s alleged violation of Turkish airspace.

In another sign of Turkey’s increasing isolation on Syria, The Wall Street Journal’s above-the-fold feature on Nov. 28 was a report on how the United States has been pressing Turkey to seal its side of the Turkish-Syrian border. The article quotes a senior Obama administration official as saying “enough is enough. … This is an international threat, and it’s all coming out of Syria and it’s coming through Turkish territory.”

Metin Gurcan explains the context of the battle that led to the confrontation between Russian and Turkish aircraft. Gurcan writes that Syrian military forces backed by Iranian Shiite militias and Russian air power have been battling Turkmens, the Army of Conquest, and Jabhat al-Nusra forces in the predominantly Turkmen Bayirbucak region since Nov. 19, which is only nine miles from the Turkish border. Syria and its allies are seeking to clean this mountainous and densely forested area from opposition fighters as a precursor of further Syrian regime and Russian moves toward Idlib and Aleppo and “to expel Chechen Caucasian fighters from Bayirbucak” in advance of a possible cease-fire.

Semih Idiz reports that Ankara had protested Russian and Syrian attacks on Syrian Turkmen forces in this region, and quotes Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as saying Nov. 22, two days before the incident, “We are prepared to take all the necessary diplomatic and other measures in order to protect our brothers there, and wherever they may be, against any threat, and to preserve their human rights.”

Idiz explains how Turkey’s actions have served to undermine its case in support of its Turkmen allies in Syria: “Once Turkey’s national 'feel good' moment of having shown its resolve and military capability by the downing of the Russian jet fighter is over, attention will shift to the diplomatic field to see what political fallout there is in the aftermath of this incident. … NATO went through the motions of calling for an emergency meeting to discuss the issue, as it has to by its charter, but few expect it to opt for an escalation of the crisis. Given that there is little sympathy in the West for radical Islamic groups following the Paris attack, and that France is acting with Russia to bomb IS targets in Raqqa, it is likely that Moscow will have the upper hand at the Security Council. This means that Turkey is unlikely to gain much sympathy from its allies for the Turkmens, or other radical Sunni groups in the region fighting the Syrian regime. Turkey ultimately remains at odds with its allies over the question of fighting the Assad regime, which US Secretary of State John Kerry has said is not part of their military mission in Syria, where they are to fight IS and to aid groups committed to fight this group. Without the active support of its allies, though, there is little that Turkey can do in the end to respond to Russia and the Assad regime in northern Syria in order to secure the Sunni-dominated political configuration in the region that it wishes to see.”

The incident has drawn increased scrutiny to Turkey’s approach to Syria’s Kurds, which is in direct contrast with both US policy and Russian initiatives in Syria. Erdogan said Oct. 14 that there is “no difference” between the Patriotic Union Party of Syria (PYD), the leading Syrian Kurdish group there, and the Islamic State. The US has singled out the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the armed wing of the PYD, as among its most effective Syrian partners, so US and Turkish policy will eventually face a day of reckoning, as the differences are to date irreconcilable.

Cengiz Candar writes that “the souring of relations between Ankara and Moscow might also cast a shadow on the cooperation between Turkey and the United States to evict IS from the 98-kilometer (61-mile) border that is still under the control of IS in northern Syria. Turkey enlisted the Americans by opening up its Incirlik Air Base in exchange for a tacit pledge to prevent YPG forces from moving ‘west of the Euphrates.’ If Russia were to provide overt support to the YPG in its quest to remove IS from the border region, such a political move could further complicate not only US-Russian relations but also the cooperation between Washington and Ankara. After all, Turkey is a member of NATO, but for Washington, under an Obama administration serving its last year in office and increasingly reluctant to engage in any sort of direct military involvement in Syria, it might be difficult to push 'the unruly teenager of the Transatlantic Alliance' to invoke Article 5.”

Zulfikar Dogan describes how Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has successfully divided and weakened the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) by equating the HDP with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Orhan Cengiz reports that a shadowy Islamist paramilitary force, termed “Allah's lions” (Esedullah), has been operating in Turkey’s predominantly Kurdish southeast regions against the PKK. The security situation in these areas is the worst it has been in a decade. “What has emerged so far from news reports, witness accounts and images in the media,” Cengiz writes, “suggests that a group within the police — religiously motivated, heavy-handed and hostile to Kurds — is increasingly taking the forefront in security operations in the southeast. The locals tend to believe these policemen share the same mindset as IS fighters and see them as an IS-linked paramilitary force. Regardless of whether this perception has any factual basis or stems from psychological fears only, one thing is certain: It serves no good for Turkey’s Kurdish problem, already mired in conflict, tensions and mistrust.”

Erdogan has shown signs of seeking to de-escalate the crisis, which has proved a fiasco, despite the nationalist chest thumping, as Pinar Tremblay reports, and the platitudes about self-defense from NATO allies. Erdogan has appealed, so far without success, for a meeting with Putin, perhaps during the climate talks that start in Paris on Nov. 30. Such a meeting, in the company of other world leaders, could yet be another step forward for a political settlement in Syria and a more coordinated military campaign against the Islamic State.

Syrian war enters new, more dangerous phase

Turkey’s shooting down of the Russian jet signals that the Syrian war has entered a new, more dangerous phase. No more is Syria just a "proxy war" between Syrian parties backed by Iran on the one side, and Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the other. The battlefield now includes American, Russian and Iranian "boots on the ground." Russia has two military bases and provides air cover for all of Syria. Turkey prudently suspended its air operations over Syria. The stakes have far exceeded both Erdogan’s personal vendetta against Assad and his desire to thwart the Syrian Kurds. Turkey’s reckless action put NATO on the hook for a type of escalation that would have repercussions beyond Syria. The credit goes to Obama, Hollande and Putin for weathering the storm.

The incident draws attention to Turkey’s grudging and half-hearted contribution to the war in Syria. If Russian planes were indeed targeting groups affiliated with Jabhat al-Nusra, should Ankara not grant them a few minutes of airspace? The point here is not to get into the back-and-forth about the specifics of whether the Russian and Turkish planes followed appropriate procedures to change the flight path of the Russian plane. The point, more broadly, is that Turkey’s actions in the war against the Islamic State may be of a lesser nature than those of Russia and Iran, not to mention Assad’s forces, who are actually engaging Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra fighters. There are also the questions of the flow of foreign fighters and illicit trade along the Turkish-Syrian border, which are the subject of several UN Security Council resolutions.

Another dimension of the new phase of the Syria war regards the role of Syrian troops in the battle against Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra. Both Hollande and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius referred to the use of Syrian government troops to combat the Islamic State, although only in the context of a political transition without Assad. The reality is that Syrian troops, backed by Iran, Hezbollah and Russia, are the most effective Arab force battling these terrorist groups, as Arab coalition forces are almost nonexistent, as Bruce Riedel wrote last week, and many of the opposition forces are now penetrated by Jabhat al-Nusra, as the United Nations and other organizations have pointed out. It might be a fair question to ask that if Syrian military forces, backed by Iran and Hezbollah, retake Aleppo, will the citizens of Aleppo be clamoring for the return of sectarian forces backed by the Gulf Arab states, or welcome the new forces in hopes of calm?

If the Vienna process gets traction in the coming months, the next frontier will be whether those who have backed opposition and Salafi forces in Syria, especially Saudi Arabia, will keep their focus on whether Assad should go, as part of a negotiation over a transition, or continue to carry the fight against the so-called “Iranian axis” to break Iran’s relationship with Syria. This trend is worth watching, especially if the Russian-Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah alignment continues to take the fight to terrorists on the ground, and both Syrians and the international community, eager to end the scourge of Islamic State and other terrorist groups once and for all, grow tired of the sectarian agendas that have caused so much misery for the Syrian people.

higurashihougi wrote:

kvs wrote:http://blogs.timesofisrael.com/nato-turkey-annexation-of-north-syria-like-north-cyprus/

Turkey wants to annex Aleppo.

Turkey is effectively functioning as a scapegoat to shoulder all the crimes of NATO.

They could want to restore the ottoman Empire and rule the world..but that doesn't means
it will happen.  Russia will not allow Turkey to annex a single piece of land of Syria. Not even one inch.  What US can do however is get kurds to steal lands from Syria.. but knowing how things are today.. it will be better if Assad did a deal with Kurds and give them a strong Autonomy
almost independence and administer all the border with turkey.  That will create a safe zone for kurds in turkey.. to counter erdogan.

Israel could also anex golen heights or half of it.. those zones will be more harder for
Russia to want to deal and fight. So Syria will lose territory but not to Turkey. but knowing
how bad it was. at least they ISIS and all terrorist will be defeated. and the nation restored.
with vast majority of territory recovered.

Major dissapointment however is Russian allies.. None.. Where is CHina? Where is India?
BElarus? Where is the collective security independent states? Where is the shangai organization?
SHows all alliances of Russia with Asia are worth of Shit. and no one will move a finger to help another nation and will only fight if directly attacked.

And it cannot be said there is no United Nations support.. because Russia got it..

The only nation who helped was IRAN and just sent a ridiculous small number of troops..
about 2,000.. with half of them being IRaquis.. even less than hezbolah that have like 5,000 fighters in Syria.

Ooooops!!!

''Erdogan Shot Down By Army Chief for Commenting on Downed Russian Bomber''

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151130/1030967496/erdogan-army-rift.html

Using similar reasoning to this explains why Russian bigwigs always call every asshat and scumbag out there ''partner''... it is called ''keeping every option available'' and ''not shooting your mouth off''

Very different situations, yes, but useful approach as proven by Russian results so far...

higurashihougi wrote:Israel claimed that one Russian plane just entered Israel air space. But Israel also commented that was an error and Russian plane meant no harm, so Israel didn't shoot it down and things solved peacefully.

Seems like the Jews are mocking the Turks.

https://www.rt.com/news/323885-israeli-airspace-shoot-down/

Sounds like 19th century Serbia.

Akula971 wrote:

BKP wrote:Have a persistent feeling that something big is going to happen soon.

I have had that since the Odessa massacre man. It keeps getting stronger everyday.

I had that feeling in 1936 when the Spanish Civil war started. Then, I learned that I have to wait until about 20 years from now for it to happen.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:https://twitter.com/syria24english/status/671185968351735808

Another Turkish convoy bites the dust moments ago.

Subtle message from VKS: WE'RE GONNA BREAK ALL YOUR SH*T!!!

''Tensions With Russia Add to a Chill in Turkey’s Economy''

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/30/business/international/tensions-with-russia-add-to-a-chill-in-turkeys-economy.html?_r=0

arpakola wrote:... has been a possible opening for a deepening of Russia’s cooperation with the US-led coalition ...

When you see this, you should stop reading.

Erk wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:Israel claimed that one Russian plane just entered Israel air space. But Israel also commented that was an error and Russian plane meant no harm, so Israel didn't shoot it down and things solved peacefully.

Seems like the Jews are mocking the Turks.

https://www.rt.com/news/323885-israeli-airspace-shoot-down/

Since when is Golan part of Israel's airspace?

Golan Heights is an illegally occupied territory that is technically still part of Syria.

higurashihougi and Erk,

Russia has been flying above Golan, the implication being that Golan is part of Syria.

Israel says this to tell Syria Golan is not part of Syria; they are not mocking Turkey.

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

arpakola wrote:... has been a possible opening for a deepening of Russia’s cooperation with the US-led coalition ...

When you see this, you should stop reading.

I was about to say this very thing. Guys, lets cut to the chase here shall we? Here's two handy compilations of what the American political elite had and have been saying:




You can't now tell me that the US is hanging Turkey out to dry, even to assume that Turkey is in charge of its own destiny is almost on the side of ignorant. Don't think for a moment that Washington was not involved in some form or other in the downing.

n the part of yesterday, October 2, 2015, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that Sukhoi Su-34 bombers attacked a terror bunker and command center in the city of Raqqa and indicated that this attack was carried out bunker buster bomb Betab-500, which until now had not been mentioned in relation to the Russian attacks in Syria .

That picture is an FAB-500M62 by the look of it.

It is just a bomb front with a sheet metal tail screwed into it... look at the picture full sized and you can see the screw heads sticking out.

In comparison the BETAB-500 is a custom designed penetrator bomb with a much narrower rear and rocket exhausts facing backwards at the rear part of the front section facing backwards to drive the weapon through concrete and other hard materials...

Russian Air Force Demolish a Building Occupied by ISIS

TEHRAN (FNA)- Sources said on Monday that the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front has declared war on the ISIL militants after a dispute over the latter’s prisoner exchange with the Lebanese Army.
Prior to this turmoil along the border of Lebanon and Syria in Qalamoun mountains, there have been similar cases of fight between them in Northern Syria that included a war in Northern Aleppo and Raqqa.

On Wednesday, heavy fighting erupted between two rival Takfiri terrorist groups in Idlib province, leaving casualties on both sides.

A large group of terrorists were killed in exchange of fire between al-Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham terrorist groups in al-Rami village in Idlib countryside.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940909000571
Al-Qaeda Declares War on ISIL in Syria's Damascus Province !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Earlier this month, fierce clashes also took pace between rival terrorist groups in the province of Dara'a, leaving scores of militants dead and injured as rifts widened between the terrorists after the Syrian army continued advance in more militant-held territories.

Clashes erupted between terrorists of al-Nusra Front and the so-called "Liwa Shuhadaa al-Yarmouk" terrorist group in al-Allan area in the Western countryside of Dara'a after al-Nusra announced on its Twitter account on Sunday that it had killed the chief of Liwa Shuhadaa al-Yarmouk.

Dozens of terrorists from both sides were killed or injured in the clashes.

Abu Ali al-Breidi, the leader of Liwa Shuhadaa al-Yarmouk, was reportedly killed in a suicide attack by al-Nusra Front that targeted one of the terrorist group’s positions.

Terrorist groups' confirmed infighting between the Takfiri terrorist groups on their social media pages, and said that members of Liwa Shuhadaa al-Yarmouk killed around 50 al-Nusra Front leaders in less than one month, and killed and abducted 300 other al-Nusra Front members.

tipex12 wrote:
"Syria. Vysokovostochny blow. " Military Acceptance

Those who haven't seen this yet really ought to.

I have seen a report about the start of serious "clashes"/ civil war in Turkey between the regime forces and the Kurds. The claim is that the movement of the tanks and artillery is related to this.

If possible, can forum members look into this and provide info?


Edit: found a link http://www.thenational.ae/world/europe/pkk-leader-bayik-says-turkey-and-kurds-in-civil-war

In Russian media, the suspicion is openly discussed that the US green-lighted or even backed the Turkish attack on the SU-24. Maybe it is, in fact, the accepted version of the event for the Russians. For example, on the latest RT "Crosstalk," Mark Sleboda claimed to have been told by a source that American-piloted F-15s were in the air, ready to back the Turkish F-16s, in case there was an immediate Russian counterattack by the aerospace forces operating out of Latakia.

So, I'm wondering how this may effect Russian bombing missions where they either know or suspect that American special forces trainers are operating on the ground. There are many reports that say this is ongoing. And, obviously, the forces that the Americans will be training are going to be anti-Assad "rebels," aka jihadi terrorists.

So, the question is: In the past perhaps the RuAF would temporarily avoid bombing targets where American SF were thought to be operating. I'm not sure if that was the case, but supposing it was, would the Russians not give such consideration now, and simply bomb the jihadis along with their American CIA/SF trainers? What do you think?