Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

No.

ISIS, TURKS, AL NUSRA AND FSA are on same side. Apparently ISIS abandoned Jarablus days ago.

Project Canada wrote:Its very disappointing to see how Russia falls almost everytime to American trickery. I mean, even common forumers can already see the real motives behind American and Turkish actions, yet the Russian leadership seems so clueless about whats Really going on! This is one reason why I decided to avoid following the events in Syria, i just wish one day i'll find out that the US and Turkey has been kicked out for good.

Is too early to say or to predict anything about Syria future. As long Assad is in power ,their current control of cities more or less the same and Russia permanently there bombing terrorist , the defeat of Syria will not happen . There will be elections in November in 2014 in United States and if Trump wins there. is completely will be game over for ISIS ,Alnusra and Obama backed moderates. Trump have said many times will want to join Russia into the fight against terrorist contrary to what Obama is doing. He even went as far as claiming Obama and CLinton funded ISIS. In any case.. Putin might be aware that is not the right time
to engage in a direct fight with either Turkey or Americans , in order to push any of them away
of Syrian borders.  If Russia shots down an american plane in Syria ,that will definitively play
into the hands of Clinton Campaign and will damage TRump calls for friendship with RUssia.
All said Just like it is in Ukraine.. In Syria time is on the side of Russia. , this is if we assume for a moment that Russia can handle the economic cost of the war in Syria without much problem and that Syria also can boost its economy and finance its own war.

So Putin have still many cards to play ,while Americans not many left and not much time left either. If Kurds goes full retard and declare war on Assad officially , then they will have to fight IRAN too and Russia airforce will come to help Syrian army and bomb kurds too. So Kurds ,if they have any brains left ,they will not commit suicide ,because Russia can increase its aid to Syria if need and reverse any kurdish gain.

Creating Kurdistan is not just words.. is not only about controlling territory in Syria and winning a battle here or there. you need also...
1) International Support too. and United Nations will not backup Kurdistan. Neither anyone of its neighbors..
2)Kurdistan if temporarily created ,will be landlocked. and with Americans and Israel being their only source of income.
3)Not backed by Turkey , neither Iraq,IRAN,Russia or United Nations.

So this means Syrian Airforce will have the edge,,the rights to bomb any air defense system deployed by Kurds on its nation. And Americans any military aid to Kurds will have to travel by planes through Turkey territory and with the agreement of Erdogan. Which will not allow tanks or combat jets or air defenses supplied by NATO on kurds either.

And then Putin have the biggest card , that is China. If China sends just 2,000 soldiers to Syria
for "Defending civilians" it will be game over for NATO there. CHina have endless supply of soldiers ,and they can even recruit from neighboring countries for half the price too.no problem.
So is too early to say..

What is more or less clear however.. is that just like in Ukraine ,extending ,freezing the conflict ,will play in the hands of Russia and Syria. and not on the hands of Americans. Not even if Clinton wins. This is because public opinion does not favors Americans to start a war against Syria or even less Russia.

The way Russia plans to recapture All Syria , is to do it very slowly , So that they cannot
destroy their budget and minimize the casualties in the conflict.


Not as slow as Israel is capturing all palestinian lands ,but still slowly.

Russia also have the cards to play on turkey of Tourism , which Erdogan needs and sanctions
if Turkey does not leave northen Syria once Syrian army takes control of all rebels/terrorist fighters. So is too early to say . But Russia do have a lot of chance of full win and recover all territory of Syria. and in the worse case , Kurds will take control of all Northern Syria but will be forced later to give the lands back if dont want to be under siege,landlocked forever.
Im sure for the end of year..

In just 2-3 more months. or earlier.The most critical phase of the war will happen.  we will have a clear picture of the alliances that will be forming in Syria ,of whether China will full join the war with military in meaningful numbers ,if Kurds will commit suicide and declare full scale war against Russia and Syria ,US elections, all those factors that can complete change the outcome of the conflict.

Let me see.

Turks, Kurds, FSA, ISIS and Nusra are all fighting each other.

Can I have more popcorn please?

If it was that way , Syria will have lost long time ago. so no..

Turkey is fighting Syria and Kurds..
Kurds are fighting Syria and Turkey.  
Americans -Israel are fighting everyone but not kurds, and not ISIS or Alqaeda for real.
Russia was fighting everyone but not Syria and Kurds.
ISIS fighting everyone but not NATO and its gulf allies..
Alqaeda fighting everyone but not NATO and its gulf allies..
ISIS at times fight Alqaeda and vice versa and other times they unite for an offensive
against Assad.

So all those Russians cease of fire.. if manage to split the Rebels ,will be a brilliant move if they
can create divisions between Kurds and terrorist groups.



So is a real , real mess ,beyond belief. To make things more complicated , Kurds
are not united. Kurds in IRAQ are sunnis non secular ,and kurds in Syria are secular more or less. Also some Kurds fight assad but others joins forces with Assad.
Russia cease of fires.. and "reconcilation process" it seems to me is a divide and conquer tactic.
Because any group that accept a cease of fire and stop fighting will be seen as traitors by other
rebels groups.  

This is why Americans have a big chance to fail big time in Syria and the conflict will frozen.
The factions they provide weapons are not united and fight each other. US provide weapons to Kurds.. but Erdogan fights them back. So Americans backup Turkey and Kurds and Alqaeda and ISIS too ,but they fight each other. Pretty much Americans one way or the other will be doomed
in Syria if Assad Government holds in power and Russia can freeze the conflict.

Vann7 wrote:

Project Canada wrote:Its very disappointing to see how Russia falls almost everytime to American trickery. I mean, even common forumers can already see the real motives behind American and Turkish actions, yet the Russian leadership seems so clueless about whats Really going on! This is one reason why I decided to avoid following the events in Syria, i just wish one day i'll find out that the US and Turkey has been kicked out for good.

Is too early to say or to predict anything about Syria future. As long Assad is in power ,their current control of cities more or less the same and Russia permanently there bombing terrorist , the defeat of Syria will not happen . There will be elections in November in 2014 in United States and if Trump wins there. is completely will be game over for ISIS ,Alnusra and Obama backed moderates. Trump have said many times will want to join Russia into the fight against terrorist contrary to what Obama is doing. He even went as far as claiming Obama and CLinton funded ISIS. In any case.. Putin might be aware that is not the right time
to engage in a direct fight with either Turkey or Americans , in order to push any of them away
of Syrian borders.  If Russia shots down an american plane in Syria ,that will definitively play
into the hands of Clinton Campaign and will damage TRump calls for friendship with RUssia.
All said Just like it is in Ukraine.. In Syria time is on the side of Russia. , this is if we assume for a moment that Russia can handle the economic cost of the war in Syria without much problem and that Syria also can boost its economy and finance its own war.

So Putin have still many cards to play ,while Americans not many left and not much time left either. If Kurds goes full retard and declare war on Assad officially , then they will have to fight IRAN too and Russia airforce will come to help Syrian army and bomb kurds too. So Kurds ,if they have any brains left ,they will not commit suicide ,because Russia can increase its aid to Syria if need and reverse any kurdish gain.

Creating Kurdistan is not just words.. is not only about controlling territory in Syria and winning a battle here or there. you need also...
1) International Support too. and United Nations will not backup Kurdistan. Neither anyone of its neighbors..
2)Kurdistan if temporarily created ,will be landlocked. and with Americans and Israel being their only source of income.
3)Not backed by Turkey , neither Iraq,IRAN,Russia or United Nations.

So this means Syrian Airforce will have the edge,,the rights to bomb any air defense system deployed by Kurds on its nation. And Americans any military aid to Kurds will have to travel by planes through Turkey territory and with the agreement of Erdogan. Which will not allow tanks or combat jets or air defenses supplied by NATO on kurds either.

And then Putin have the biggest card , that is China. If China sends just 2,000 soldiers to Syria
for "Defending civilians" it will be game over for NATO there. CHina have endless supply of soldiers ,and they can even recruit from neighboring countries for half the price too.no problem.
So is too early to say..

What is more or less clear however.. is that just like in Ukraine ,extending ,freezing the conflict ,will play in the hands of Russia and Syria. and not on the hands of Americans. Not even if Clinton wins. This is because public opinion does not favors Americans to start a war against Syria or even less Russia.

The way Russia plans to recapture All Syria , is to do it very slowly , So that they cannot
destroy their budget and minimize the casualties in the conflict.


Not as slow as Israel is capturing all palestinian lands ,but still slowly.

Russia also have the cards to play on turkey of Tourism , which Erdogan needs and sanctions
if Turkey does not leave northen Syria once Syrian army takes control of all rebels/terrorist fighters. So is too early to say . But Russia do have a lot of chance of full win and recover all territory of Syria. and in the worse case , Kurds will take control of all Northern Syria but will be forced later to give the lands back if dont want to be under siege,landlocked forever.
Im sure for the end of year..

In just 2-3 more months. or earlier.The most critical phase of the war will happen.  we will have a clear picture of the alliances that will be forming in Syria ,of whether China will full join the war with military in meaningful numbers ,if Kurds will commit suicide and declare full scale war against Russia and Syria ,US elections, all those factors that can complete change the outcome of the conflict.

Let me see.

Turks, Kurds, FSA, ISIS and Nusra are all fighting each other.

Can I have more popcorn please?

If it was that way , Syria will have lost long time ago. so no..

Turkey is fighting Syria and Kurds..
Kurds are fighting Syria and Turkey.  
Americans -Israel are fighting everyone but not kurds, and not ISIS or Alqaeda for real.
Russia was fighting everyone but not Syria and Kurds.
ISIS fighting everyone but not NATO and its gulf allies..
Alqaeda fighting everyone but not NATO and its gulf allies..
ISIS at times fight Alqaeda and vice versa and other times they unite for an offensive
against Assad.

So all those Russians cease of fire.. if manage to split the Rebels ,will be a brilliant move if they
can create divisions between Kurds and terrorist groups.



So is a real , real mess ,beyond belief. To make things more complicated , Kurds
are not united. Kurds in IRAQ are sunnis non secular ,and kurds in Syria are secular more or less. Also some Kurds fight assad but others joins forces with Assad.
Russia cease of fires.. and "reconcilation process" it seems to me is a divide and conquer tactic.
Because any group that accept a cease of fire and stop fighting will be seen as traitors by other
rebels groups.  

This is why Americans have a big chance to fail big time in Syria and the conflict will frozen.
The factions they provide weapons are not united and fight each other. US provide weapons to Kurds.. but Erdogan fights them back. So US backup Turkey and Kurds ,but they are both enemies.

Nice analysis Vann, this shit is complicated, one big thing Russia should is arm the SDF, to fight the Turks, that would be epic.

sepheronx wrote:Most on Twitter agree this is a stab at Russia and that Russia fucked up. They are saying that Putin is weak and that Russian intelligence is Fricking Piss poor, and I agree with that.

I really think you are overreacting here buddy. People on twitter say a lot of things. 99% of it is nonsense. This is no different.

Russia OK-ed this Turkish move because Kurds (owned and operated by USA) were becoming huge problem and SAA was incapable to deal with them. USA is tagging along because they want to reassert themselves here and they are throwing Kurds down the toilet to do so. Legit move but not enough to jeopardize Damascus and West Syria.  

Turks want to take out Kurds. Kurds would have never worked with SAA that much is clear. And SAA was starting to waste men and power to fight Kurds. Unacceptable situation.

sepheronx wrote:.............
US and Turkey now saw this weakness in Russia and is exploiting it. Nothing is being accomplished. Aleppo is taking forever and other areas is a trading game of winning and losing. In the end, Turkey obtained new territory and may be moving closer to Aleppo itself. What then?.............

Aleppo is taking forever because of SAA. Even if Turks do go for Aleppo (not happening) what would change? Would they lift the siege? It is already lifted thanks to SAA and Iran. Would they go for government part? Only outcome is Turkish version of Falluja but much, much longer and unlike USA's gig, without victory.

In retrospect this is due to the fact that SAA was in much worse condition than anyone could have imagined. Fact that they kept is secret all this time is probably SAA's greatest accomplishment in this war.

Had anyone known the truth, USA would have organized one big push against the West Syria last year  (like one in Aleppo now) and rebels would have ruled the whole place before New Year.

It is clear that for Syrians patriotism does not exist. There is only loyalty to local tribes. So best move is to pick the loyal tribes and stick with them. (Latakia, Damascus etc...). Parts of Syria that are not toilet.

KoTeMoRe wrote:Lol, Kurds are in panic mode, dissing the US, only bot trolls like the R Guy  are having a strike.

Oh I do wonder who do they have to blame for that?

Answer stats with 'K' and rhymes with ''turd''.

Today NATO violates Syria. Tomorrow NATO will violate Russia. Let's say NATO invades Russia. What's Putin gonna do? Putin can't afford to go to war with NATO, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, former Soviet republics, former Yugoslav republics. So what's he gonna do? Lay down and surrender Russia?

PapaDragon wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Most on Twitter agree this is a stab at Russia and that Russia fucked up. They are saying that Putin is weak and that Russian intelligence is Fricking Piss poor, and I agree with that.

I really think you are overreacting here buddy. People on twitter say a lot of things. 99% of it is nonsense. This is no different.

Russia OK-ed this Turkish move because Kurds (owned and operated by USA) were becoming huge problem and SAA was incapable to deal with them. USA is tagging along because they want to reassert themselves here and they are throwing Kurds down the toilet to do so. Legit move but not enough to jeopardize Damascus and West Syria.  

Turks want to take out Kurds. Kurds would have never worked with SAA that much is clear. And SAA was starting to waste men and power to fight Kurds. Unacceptable situation.

sepheronx wrote:.............
US and Turkey now saw this weakness in Russia and is exploiting it. Nothing is being accomplished. Aleppo is taking forever and other areas is a trading game of winning and losing. In the end, Turkey obtained new territory and may be moving closer to Aleppo itself. What then?.............

Aleppo is taking forever because of SAA. Even if Turks do go for Aleppo (not happening) what would change? Would they lift the siege? It is already lifted thanks to SAA and Iran. Would they go for government part? Only outcome is Turkish version of Falluja but much, much longer and unlike USA's gig, without victory.

In retrospect this is due to the fact that SAA was in much worse condition than anyone could have imagined. Fact that they kept is secret all this time is probably SAA's greatest accomplishment in this war.

Had anyone known the truth, USA would have organized one big push against the West Syria last year  (like one in Aleppo now) and rebels would have ruled the whole place before New Year.

It is clear that for Syrians patriotism does not exist. There is only loyalty to local tribes. So best move is to pick the loyal tribes and stick with them. (Latakia, Damascus etc...). Parts of Syria that are not toilet.

KoTeMoRe wrote:Lol, Kurds are in panic mode, dissing the US, only bot trolls like the R Guy  are having a strike.

Oh I do wonder who do they have to blame for that?

Answer stats with 'K' and rhymes with ''turd''.

The bolded part is what most people don't get, Turkey knows, full well, that if they go into Syria to fight the Kurds, without having input from Russia, than the Russians are just going to arm the Kurds and they will be in for a long bloody war(which no army wants).The Kurds were already fighting Assad(probably taking orders from the US) and there is no way the Syrian army can fight Kurds, while fighting terrorists, Arabs work in tribes and you have to deal with them a certain way.

medo wrote:Russia fu**ed up? Than what will you say for US? US NATO ally Turkey invade in Syria, where they attack US terrorist group ISIL, which are fighting with moderate US terrorists FSA and US allies Kurds. US game is even more screwed there.

If you look for insanity in the internet, they reference 24th August operation as perfect example...

Kurds just realized that they spilled blood for nothing and Assad is having a mild stroke from the fun in this situation.

Also Papa, SAA as a structure is gone since 2014 roughly. And Aleppo has never been in a better situation. Meanwhile Turkey's gamble here has been this, they pulled a chunk of people from Aleppo's reserve and are throwing them to establish a new buffer area so that Kurds will not get in. I guess that the coup happened because this was decided at some point. Turkish Army tried to end this, but they only stalled it. In this case, while in short term this is an acceptable situation for Russia, in the long term Russia has two moves to make.

A. Pick a side. If yes:

1. Does it offer another carrot to the Kurds?
2. Does it deal directly with the US and notifies them bombs are going to be dropped on FSA anyway.

B. Play both sides against each other. If yes:

1. Does Russia talks this with Iran? Entrenched Kurds will be difficult to swallow for Iran.
2. Does Russia plays coy? Then it can offer Iran a big stick to carry out pest control.

In any sense Kurds just found out they're the smallest kid in the schollyard.

I'm reading lots of things with low sense.

The people seem to have not clear which is the Russian coalition on Syria, and this is the first thing to see in this war. Who is in the Russian coalition on Syria and Iraq:

- Iran
- The government of Iraq (Shii arabs + Kurds)
- The government of Syria (Left arabs)
- The Kurds.
- Important groups in Lebanon. Maybe even their government.

The comment of Vann7 was one of the most accurate in the last two pages, and is giving the key:

Vann7 wrote:Russia was fighting everyone but not Syria and Kurds.

This is the begin. And is very important because Russia will not change its coalition easily. Every element of this coalition is fighting the same people. And every element of this coalition is important because all them are necessary to make a territory continuous.Iran and Russia are not being involved to defend islands or enclaves, they are fighting for a continuous territory governed by friends, until the Mediterraneum.

When and where was formed this coalition? The coalition was really formed when Iraq asked for the involvement of Iran in the fight against the ISIS. Russia surely noticed it, but officially entered when Syria asked for the involvement of Russia in Syria. If the people has some doubt about if the Kurds are fighting the same enemies than Russia, is not difficult to see it:

- There is not a significant Kurd fight vs Iran.
- The Kurds are part of the government of Iraq.
- The Kurds fighted the Syrian government in the firsts stages of the war, but not recently. At least not significantly.
- The Kurds are at war with Turkey.
- The Kurds are at war with the ISIS.

How are now (after 2015) the Kurds abe to fight again Turkey? Obviously they have external supplies and are not from the US. These supplies come from their real allies. There are over 30 millions of Kurds in the area, this and their strong supplies are the reasons why the Kurds are being able to keep the two fronts (vs Turkey and vs the ISIS). The population of the ISIS in Syria and Iraq is far lower.

Turkey really trolled many of the people commenting here with their messages, about a new close friendship with Russia, but the relation Russia-Turkey is today still quite cold. This is only Turkish propaganda. What is true about Turkey:

- Good relations with Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states. Even good relations with the Arab League.
- The US dislike Erdogan until the point of promoting a coup.
- The NATO will not follow Turkey on Syria.
- There is a crisis of relations with Russia, with some military consequence.
- War with the Kurds.
- Bad relations with Iran, Iraq and Syria (Shiis and Arab Left).

I would not rule out that Turkey entered in Syria by their own initiative. Also it is possible that they agreed with Saudi Arabia on it. Likely agreed not with the US, and for sure not with Russia. Just Russia want not Turkey in syria, and if it would be some agreement between Russia and Turkey on Syria, Turkey would stay out.

Then, what will do Russia with it. Well, this comment is right:

par far wrote: Turkey knows, full well, that if they go into Syria to fight the Kurds, without having input from Russia, than the Russians are just going to arm the Kurds and they will be in for a long bloody war(which no army wants).

I expect Turkey to have serious loses on Syria.

Kurds are not part of the Russian Coalition in Syria.

They enjoy an ambiguous status, mainly because they are courted by three parties.

°US.
°Russia.
°Turkey (I'll explain this one later).

In the past Kurds made a lot of promises. Among those was TO NOT fight against the SAA and not try and take out the Arab populations in its Rojava territory.

Both points have been moot.

Hasakah has been an issue and it finally got overrun.
And moreover Kurds have been silently ethnically cleansing their area. This was even denoucned by ... HRW.

In the main time they have received air support and supplies by both sides. US & Russia. Turkey has mostly backed the Iraqi Kurds vs the Iraqi central Government.

Kurds weren't touched because Russia doesn't want to open a second front threatening the Palmyra axis by diverting people to defend or evacuate Qamishly and Hasaka.
Kurds were embraced by the US while Turkey was screaming bloody murder. Kurds in the area do get supplies mostly from KRG and mostly by paying since KRG (in Iraq) isn't friendly to PKK-linked groups.

Now Turkey also courts Kurds in the Iraqi/Syrian border. Mainly because it allows Turkey to get a rear door to Syria in case the front door is closed.

eehnie wrote:I'm reading lots of things with low sense.

The people seem to have not clear which is the Russian coalition on Syria, and this is the first thing to see in this war. Who is in the Russian coalition on Syria and Iraq:

- Iran
- The government of Iraq (Shii arabs + Kurds)
- The government of Syria (Left arabs)
-The Kurds.
- Important groups in Lebanon. Maybe even their government.

.......................

I expect Turkey to have serious loses on Syria.

Like KoTe said, Kurds were most definitely not ally of Russia. At best they were non hostile but that went out the window when they attacked SAA.

Since SAA can't fight Kurds on top of everything they were ''outsourced'' to Turks because going after Kurds is considered to be non-kosher.

It is quite brilliant when you think about it.

As for Turkish losses, that is their problem. No good guys left up North.

PapaDragon wrote:

eehnie wrote:I'm reading lots of things with low sense.

The people seem to have not clear which is the Russian coalition on Syria, and this is the first thing to see in this war. Who is in the Russian coalition on Syria and Iraq:

- Iran
- The government of Iraq (Shii arabs + Kurds)
- The government of Syria (Left arabs)
-The Kurds.
- Important groups in Lebanon. Maybe even their government.

.......................

I expect Turkey to have serious loses on Syria.

Like KoTe said, Kurds were most definitely not ally of Russia. At best they were non hostile but that went out the window when they attacked SAA.

Since SAA can't fight Kurds on top of everything they were ''outsourced'' to Turks because going after Kurds is considered to be non-kosher.

It is quite brilliant when you think about it.

As for Turkish losses, that is their problem. No good guys left up North.

Brilliant or rather inevitable but on short term. Long term it's going back to 2015. Not that it changes much for the "FSA". They will still have to deal with both sides and Kurds will not forgive this one. Russia can earn a lot of kopecks here is they denounce the Turkish aggression and let some cases of weapons loose around Qamishli, while negotiating with Kurds in Moscow about those Autonomous areas within Syria. It's just a big fat bargaining. The idiots in here are the US, because they are trying to ride three horses (SDF/YPG/FSA) and an elephant (Turkey). America having no clue about international politics since...forever.

Maybe US and Turkey though are using this as a pretext to target Assad. Saudi Arabia has jets in Turkey ready to be used as well (F-15's). So I imagine that they will be targeting Assad. Now if that happens, what will Russia do? They got S-400's and bunch of advanced jets, yet they will not use them it seems.

If they wont defend SAA, then at least they should be supplying more advanced weapons to SAA to help fight off the invaders. IEL MiG-29's, Su-27's and more air defense systems. Maybe even help build up mini IADS around pockets to protect SyAF and installations. They must be ready at all costs.

It is the possibilities here and the other groups are very sure in getting rid of Assad. When that happens, it will be an Anti-Russian country and Russia will lose more bases and influence.

sepheronx wrote:Maybe US and Turkey though are using this as a pretext to target Assad.  Saudi Arabia has jets in Turkey ready to be used as well (F-15's).  So I imagine that they will be targeting Assad.  Now if that happens, what will Russia do?  They got S-400's and bunch of advanced jets, yet they will not use them it seems.

If they wont defend SAA, then at least they should be supplying more advanced weapons to SAA to help fight off the invaders.  IEL MiG-29's, Su-27's and more air defense systems.  Maybe even help build up mini IADS around pockets to protect SyAF and installations.  They must be ready at all costs.

It is the possibilities here and the other groups are very sure in getting rid of Assad.  When that happens, it will be an Anti-Russian country and Russia will lose more bases and influence.

Russia never gives SAA anything, not even 1980s artillery. Iran has to pay money for it.

sepheronx wrote:Maybe US and Turkey though are using this as a pretext to target Assad.  Saudi Arabia has jets in Turkey ready to be used as well (F-15's).  So I imagine that they will be targeting Assad.  Now if that happens, what will Russia do?  They got S-400's and bunch of advanced jets, yet they will not use them it seems.

If they wont defend SAA, then at least they should be supplying more advanced weapons to SAA to help fight off the invaders.  IEL MiG-29's, Su-27's and more air defense systems.  Maybe even help build up mini IADS around pockets to protect SyAF and installations.  They must be ready at all costs.

It is the possibilities here and the other groups are very sure in getting rid of Assad.  When that happens, it will be an Anti-Russian country and Russia will lose more bases and influence.

Y Yeah let's give more weapons to a military group that needs a total overhaul on its core. Let's not actually try and deal this differently than the SAA tried before.

sepheronx wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

sepheronx wrote:...............

I am not saying Kurds, but Turks, US and their terrorist buddies Al-Sham and FSA will start moving west.

....................

Seph, Turks did not do anything here on their own. They were allowed to do it by Russia. And Turks know it. They will be busy with Kurds up there for a long time.

Anyone goes west he is fried. Al-Sham and FSA can and do try it all the time. So far no joy. And there will be none. That is Russian real estate now.

Just wait and see. Notice how US took Ukraine easily? And that is native Russian lands. Russian pilot dies, Russian authorities state they will never forget or forgive Turkey over this, and then they did. After a simple apology.  At that point, the Russian people should have had mass demonstrations against Putin for being such a fucking bitch, but nope.  No, Turkey didn't get Russian approval. They don't need to. Russia rolls over. Medvedev was more of a man than Putin was. He at least fought US mercs and Georgians.

Notice how the US took Ukraine easily?
Er... No? Russia for all intents and purposes has come out on top, NATO has a banana republic to manipulate, Russia has the Donbass, which keeps the junta's hands tied. Russia also has Crimea, with complete authority over it as a federal subject. Navy, air, land now form a bastion in the Black Sea that Russia could not utilize to its fullest extent when it was under Ukraine, not to mention production structure.

Putin for being such a fucking bitch Which is why the US is absolutely pissing themselves? Russia has outmaneuvered them in every situation AND avoided the war that they so desperately crave. Lets see: Europe's fucked economically, and it's suicidal to boot, I give it a maximum of ten years before it descends into anarchy/civil war/fractures, so goodbye NATO, for what that pathetic alliance is worth. The US has nothing but a giant military attempting to prop up it's failing petro-dollar, and is acting more and more irrational as time goes on. They're 80's USSR on fricken steroids right now, except not willing to back out, and with a massive Achilles heel. They are also running out of options with their bloated military, as most potential consumable target nations have buffed their militaries considerably since Desert Storm, and attacking them will only unveil just how much of a paper tiger the US is (heavy losses, both equipment and actual casualties, as well as pin-popping their prima-dona: "Air Superiority"). Russia is rapidly outpacing them in the technological department, while not over spending on procurement, simply because the US MIC is corrupt beyond repair.

Motherland doesn't even have to do anything at this point. Time is well and truly on our side, literally grab popcorn and watch as the US plays its last few cards ineffectively, namely being hybrid warfare and sanctions, and then implodes melodramatically.

Russia fucked up because they didn't deal with Turkey after Su-24 being shot down. They talked tough but were far too quick to forgive. No money, no arrest and such for the people responsible. Nothing. But they forgave them after two of their own were murdered.

Except Turkey lost how many personnel to magical unicorn MANPADS and ATGMs? I know, I know, we can only speculate they were from Russia, but that's the whole idea. Add some sanctions to the mix, and suddenly Duh-dogan realizes how insecure his little Ottoman Empire is.

Medvedev was more of a man than Putin was. He at least fought US mercs and Georgians.

While simultaneously favoring economic and military deals with Western nations, deals that had repercussions right up to this day.  

Look, I want more than anyone else for Russia to flex a bit of muscle and give the US a smack in the face it won't soon forget, and I know that time will come, but for now it's a matter of playing the waiting game. There is no point in acting hurriedly or irrationally if time is on your side, just let the US stew and stew, and when the time is right you'll have some nice tasty American soup.

sepheronx wrote:Maybe US and Turkey though are using this as a pretext to target Assad.

That will be true.. if Kurds were not at war with Turkey. Erdogan major concern is not ISIS or Alqaeda (since have been helping them and they not at war contrary to all claims of "isis terror attacks in TUrkey"),Is not Russia or Syria. Erdogan major concern is Kurds and i will say , Kurds in Syria only and Kurds in TUrkey.  Americans are providing weapons and training to Kurds in Syria and this is a major game breaking issue for ERdogan.

So lets see for a moment what will happen.. if Erdogan start a fight with Syria Army.
It will pull IRAN and Russia to help Syria and it will provoke Erdogan to get again the Sanctions
he was desperate to get lifted from Russia. It will also end the pipeline he wants to Europe and it will end the nuclear reactor and any kind of cooperation with IRAN and Russia.

SO what will happen if ERdogan move to damascus with tanks? It they very well armed by NATO and in BIG numbers and Big ARmy  and Russia chickens to directly fight Turkey ,then TUrkey will be an invading Army ,and will have ending relations completely with Russia and IRAN. and then will have to deal with Turks armed by Russia and IRAN later.

So this means that Turkey defeating Assad and Syrian army ,will only significantly Empower Kurds to fight Turkey better. So Turkey will not want that. Erdogan will prefer to just take a piece of northern Syria (from his point of view) and completely destroy Kurds growing Power.

So if Russia plays well its cards.. It can get Erdogan Army reversing all the gain of Kurds since the war began.

If you look at the Syrian map ,of 2011 and the Syrian map of 2016 today..
you will see that ISIS attacked mostly Syrian army and non completely aligned Rebels with NATO. And Alqaeda and ISIS mostly did not fight each other. and the kurds have been the big winner in terms of territory in the war.

This numbers are in 2015 alone.

Isis lost 14% of its territory in 2015 while Kurdish forces gained 186%

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-lost-14-its-territory-2015-while-kurdish-forces-gained-186-1534461

So kurds have multiplied its territory more than 10 times since the war began..and without having a real army ,without suicide bombers tactics, without airforce without any radars or technology.. how can that be explained?  Simply Americans-Israel ultimate Goal is the creation of Kurdistan.

THe next map shows Kurds positions ,kurds territory in 2011..



Kurdistan is a major threat not only to Syria but also to Turkey and IRAN too..

Today map of 2016.. kurds have major gains in Syria and IRAq.. so ISIS invasion of Syria
was very good for Kurds..



So what all this show?  
It shows that NATO plan B is nothing more than the creation of Kurdistan. Plan A was the total disintegration of Syria.But that one is out of question now as long Russia is there. ISIS is only
a trojan horse used to weaken/dismember Syria and to justify NATO invasion, for "humanitarian reasons" and to "fight terrorism".

ISIS and Alnusra wiped everyone from 2011 to 2015 and gained territory non stop in Syria until Russia came to Syria to help. But amazingly in all that time with the exception of Kobani battle.. ISIS-Neither alnusra attacked Kurds and have been almost exclusively focusing in Syrian army. So again this shows ISIS and ALnusra are politically controlled by AMericans and Israel. and they are there in Syria only to over run all Syria (Americans plan A)  or at very least become a buffer zone for Kurdistan in Syria and IRAQ (plan B) with Kurds control of all the oil fields of Syria and IRAQ.

So Turkey understand now finally , understand that Americans and Gulf Allies ambitions of Kurdistan pose a major threat to its own nation territorial integrity. Americans undercoverly will always support ( ANY opposition ) to any ally or Enemy . Whether that opposition is Alqaeda,ISIS or NAzis it doesn't matter. if they can fight ,they can be used to help US global agendas of total domination of the world..Because that will help them to have a always one way to pressure any nation into its submission to American Imperialism in case they become too powerful ally and want to become independent.  

This is why US/UK support "moderates"/terrorist in Syria.. but at the same time they support Palestinians and a two state solution in Israel. Because Americans also see Israel as a major threat to its own Global ambitions. The last thing Americans or British wants to get help Israel become too powerful that later not even them can control it. So this is why US even though support Israel and protect them.. they still does not recognize Israel demands of kicking palestinians from middle east. Someone is needed to oppose Israel. And this is why probably
Israel was demanded to leave Lebanon by NATO when it attemped to wipe hezbolah. Simply the Neocons anglos globalist are not married with any one ,and they want US to become the center of power and with no one to challenge them. And its allies with only limited sovereignty and only when it is not in conflict with their interest.

All said Turkey finally understand ,that if Erdogan blindly follows Americans policies in Syria ,
that Turkey will have its own Syrian war too , and the kurds he helped to empower in Syria ,
by fighting the Syrian army ,will later use their weapons against their real enemy that is Turks.
Because Kurds fights Syria but is not personal fight.. is just business. they want a nation and thats it.. But with Turkey.. Kurds have a real war going on for many decades.

All said.. it will not be in Erdogan Interest ,totally disband Syria ,so later a nuclear powered Israel can move closer to Turkey borders. using with the Kurds are proxy. So erdogan even if he hates all about Syria will not be on its interest to allow Kurdistan to happen and Syria to desintegrate. they are only happy to expand to northern Syria ,and take control of Kurds there and Syria oil fields.

This means that if Russia play well its cards.. it can use Turkey against Americans plans of Kurdistan. and get Turkey to fight Americans backed Kurds in Syria and reverse all their gains there.

This will get US and NATO in a direct confrontation with Turkey.  Because americans then will provide weapons to kurds to fight Turkey and no longer will be able to continue fighting an united front against Assad.

Erdogan also needs to consider that if Trump wins in US , his only chance to survive will be restored relations with Russia from now to elections and the China card can be a game changing thing. is the only move that can reverse all the territorial gains of NATO in Syria since 2011.

So is a TOTAL lie , that Kurds are the "most effective fighting force against ISIS". they aren't at all. they barely have weapons , they have almost no tanks. and almost no technology on their own. Kurds weapons comes all from NATO. and NATO special forces fights side by side with Kurds. They are the "good guys" that Americans need to justify their protection in Syria.. a faction that not even RUssia can call terrorist since they aren't ,they are just opportunist,and that Russia recognize as legitimate. and it will need to do it .. because Kurds can be used against Turkey too by Russia.

Freezing the conflict is the best way to solve things .. because it will bleed United States ,and its allies financing such a war. and will be impossible for americans to keep united all the militants they support , All US backed factions will start to fight each other since they are not united .  

So i dont think Turkey will push for a direct fight against Assad in Aleppo ,the zones the Syrian army control. and they have much better things to do in northern Syria like reversing Kurds gains. My prediction is Kurds will now spoke about peace and reconcilation with Assad after they see their Americans buddies cannot help them and will not do it ,if Turkey fights Kurds in Syria.    

Aside that Assad will have a major justification to fight Turkey invading army later if when the times comes ,to take Northern Syria they refuse to leave. Much more justification than to fight Kurds. Because Kurds lived there more or less in the zones they fighting but not Turkey. This is why China can be a game changing thing . Turkey will never dare to fight CHina Army if moves to Syria because they cannot compete with the endless supply of fighters and economy China have ,neither with its military ,since chinese army is better armed than Turkey.

All said is too early to say.. but what is clear is that the conflict in Syria is far from over ,
it could last decades. but If Russia play well its cards , it could get at least a small but good enough benefit from Turkey invasion of northen Syria. SInce will help Russia pressure kurds to stop following Americans advices and unite for once with Syrian Government and abandon their desires to a federation in Syria.

Some people is not reading the facts.

It is obvious that the Kurds are part of the Russian coalition in Iraq.

The first reason in support of this is the strong presence of the Kurds in the current government of Iraq. While the current government of Iraq was created and supplied by the US, like in the case of Afghanistan, it is quite clear how both governments have been leaning toward Russia (and also China in the case of Afghanistan). Without the Kurds it would not be this movement of the government of Iraq toward Russia. Primarily this movement was promoted by the Shii side of the government of Iraq and was toward Iran, but now it has been extended also toward Russia.

The Kurds in Iran are mostly Shiis, which helps to the coalition, first because the are not as hostile to the government of Iran, and later because they support the alliance of Iran and Iraq.

The Kurds of Turkey are really hostile with Turkey. The alliance between Iran and Iraq allowed them to increase the fight vs Turkey with the support of Kurds of other countries and with the easier ways to supplies that this coalition opened. Plus, about a half of the Kurds live in Turkey.

And finally the Kurds of Syria, like the Kurds of Iraq are fighting the ISIS primarily since at least two or three years. The relation with the government of Syria was bad, but they today share many interests.

The reinforcement of the position of the Kurds in the area, fueled primarily by Iran and supported also by Russia, is what allowed to the increasing weakness of Turkey, and also to the increasing weakness of the US in the area. And Iran and Russia love both results.

Turkey will lose tanks and soldiers in Syria, this is guaranted.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

eehnie wrote:I'm reading lots of things with low sense.

The people seem to have not clear which is the Russian coalition on Syria, and this is the first thing to see in this war. Who is in the Russian coalition on Syria and Iraq:

- Iran
- The government of Iraq (Shii arabs + Kurds)
- The government of Syria (Left arabs)
-The Kurds.
- Important groups in Lebanon. Maybe even their government.

.......................

I expect Turkey to have serious loses on Syria.

Like KoTe said, Kurds were most definitely not ally of Russia. At best they were non hostile but that went out the window when they attacked SAA.

Since SAA can't fight Kurds on top of everything they were ''outsourced'' to Turks because going after Kurds is considered to be non-kosher.

It is quite brilliant when you think about it.

As for Turkish losses, that is their problem. No good guys left up North.

Brilliant or rather inevitable but on short term. Long term it's going back to 2015. Not that it changes much for the "FSA". They will still have to deal with both sides and Kurds will not forgive this one. Russia can earn a lot of kopecks here is they denounce the Turkish aggression and let some cases of weapons loose around Qamishli, while negotiating with Kurds in Moscow about those Autonomous areas within Syria. It's just a big fat bargaining. The idiots in here are the US, because they are trying to ride three horses (SDF/YPG/FSA) and an elephant (Turkey). America having no clue about international politics since...forever.  

This is not brilliant is a non-sense.

If there is something where Russia and Syria based their message to avoid the direct intervention of Turkey, the Gulf countries and the US, is in the fact that the Syrian government allowed not them to operate in their territory, and a direct intervention would be illegal by international standards.

Today Russia (with maybe Iran) is the alone foreign country allowed to intervene in Syria legally at the request of the Syrian legal government. And Russia will not lose this position, no matter what.

Of course Syria allowed not the intervention of Turkey, basically because Turkey is the biggest enemy of Syria. The groups that Turkey is supporting are far worse for them than the Syrian Kurds. Russia is not back of this because it would damage seriously its relations with the Kurds, with Syria, with Iraq and even with Iran (see how brilliant movement for Russia). Turkey is not a fiable partner of Russia. All the bullshit about Russia-Turkey new friendship is of Turkish origin, sorry, is not credible, and is not real.

Turkey with this movement is only going forward with its own strategy. Only this. Maybe supported by the Gulf countries and the Arab League.

OminousSpudd wrote:

Notice how the US took Ukraine easily?
Er... No? Russia for all intents and purposes has come out on top, NATO has a banana republic to manipulate, Russia has the Donbass, which keeps the junta's hands tied. Russia also has Crimea, with complete authority over it as a federal subject. Navy, air, land now form a bastion in the Black Sea that Russia could not utilize to its fullest extent when it was under Ukraine, not to mention production structure.

Putin for being such a fucking bitch Which is why the US is absolutely pissing themselves? Russia has outmaneuvered them in every situation AND avoided the war that they so desperately crave. Lets see: Europe's fucked economically, and it's suicidal to boot, I give it a maximum of ten years before it descends into anarchy/civil war/fractures, so goodbye NATO, for what that pathetic alliance is worth. The US has nothing but a giant military attempting to prop up it's failing petro-dollar, and is acting more and more irrational as time goes on. They're 80's USSR on fricken steroids right now, except not willing to back out, and with a massive Achilles heel. They are also running out of options with their bloated military, as most potential consumable target nations have buffed their militaries considerably since Desert Storm, and attacking them will only unveil just how much of a paper tiger the US is (heavy losses, both equipment and actual casualties, as well as pin-popping their prima-dona: "Air Superiority"). Russia is rapidly outpacing them in the technological department, while not over spending on procurement, simply because the US MIC is corrupt beyond repair.

Motherland doesn't even have to do anything at this point. Time is well and truly on our side, literally grab popcorn and watch as the US plays its last few cards ineffectively, namely being hybrid warfare and sanctions, and then implodes melodramatically.

Russia fucked up because they didn't deal with Turkey after Su-24 being shot down. They talked tough but were far too quick to forgive. No money, no arrest and such for the people responsible. Nothing. But they forgave them after two of their own were murdered.

Except Turkey lost how many personnel to magical unicorn MANPADS and ATGMs? I know, I know, we can only speculate they were from Russia, but that's the whole idea. Add some sanctions to the mix, and suddenly Duh-dogan realizes how insecure his little Ottoman Empire is.

Medvedev was more of a man than Putin was. He at least fought US mercs and Georgians.

While simultaneously favoring economic and military deals with Western nations, deals that had repercussions right up to this day.  

Look, I want more than anyone else for Russia to flex a bit of muscle and give the US a smack in the face it won't soon forget, and I know that time will come, but for now it's a matter of playing the waiting game. There is no point in acting hurriedly or irrationally if time is on your side, just let the US stew and stew, and when the time is right you'll have some nice tasty American soup.

+1

Hundreds of people are killed by war every day in Syria. Russians don't give a damn. Otherwise Russians would have supplied counter battery radars to SAA and ended the war in weeks. Russians prolong war in Syria. War is profit for Russians. War is leverage for Russians. Russians are playing with fire. Russians just wait. Today this is Syria's tragedy. Tomorrow it will be Russia's tragedy. Payback is always a biotch.

OminousSpudd wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

sepheronx wrote:...............

I am not saying Kurds, but Turks, US and their terrorist buddies Al-Sham and FSA will start moving west.

....................

Seph, Turks did not do anything here on their own. They were allowed to do it by Russia. And Turks know it. They will be busy with Kurds up there for a long time.

Anyone goes west he is fried. Al-Sham and FSA can and do try it all the time. So far no joy. And there will be none. That is Russian real estate now.

Just wait and see. Notice how US took Ukraine easily? And that is native Russian lands. Russian pilot dies, Russian authorities state they will never forget or forgive Turkey over this, and then they did. After a simple apology.  At that point, the Russian people should have had mass demonstrations against Putin for being such a fucking bitch, but nope.  No, Turkey didn't get Russian approval. They don't need to. Russia rolls over. Medvedev was more of a man than Putin was. He at least fought US mercs and Georgians.

Notice how the US took Ukraine easily?
Er... No? Russia for all intents and purposes has come out on top, NATO has a banana republic to manipulate, Russia has the Donbass, which keeps the junta's hands tied. Russia also has Crimea, with complete authority over it as a federal subject. Navy, air, land now form a bastion in the Black Sea that Russia could not utilize to its fullest extent when it was under Ukraine, not to mention production structure.

Putin for being such a fucking bitch Which is why the US is absolutely pissing themselves? Russia has outmaneuvered them in every situation AND avoided the war that they so desperately crave. Lets see: Europe's fucked economically, and it's suicidal to boot, I give it a maximum of ten years before it descends into anarchy/civil war/fractures, so goodbye NATO, for what that pathetic alliance is worth. The US has nothing but a giant military attempting to prop up it's failing petro-dollar, and is acting more and more irrational as time goes on. They're 80's USSR on fricken steroids right now, except not willing to back out, and with a massive Achilles heel. They are also running out of options with their bloated military, as most potential consumable target nations have buffed their militaries considerably since Desert Storm, and attacking them will only unveil just how much of a paper tiger the US is (heavy losses, both equipment and actual casualties, as well as pin-popping their prima-dona: "Air Superiority"). Russia is rapidly outpacing them in the technological department, while not over spending on procurement, simply because the US MIC is corrupt beyond repair.

Motherland doesn't even have to do anything at this point. Time is well and truly on our side, literally grab popcorn and watch as the US plays its last few cards ineffectively, namely being hybrid warfare and sanctions, and then implodes melodramatically.

Russia fucked up because they didn't deal with Turkey after Su-24 being shot down. They talked tough but were far too quick to forgive. No money, no arrest and such for the people responsible. Nothing. But they forgave them after two of their own were murdered.

Except Turkey lost how many personnel to magical unicorn MANPADS and ATGMs? I know, I know, we can only speculate they were from Russia, but that's the whole idea. Add some sanctions to the mix, and suddenly Duh-dogan realizes how insecure his little Ottoman Empire is.

Medvedev was more of a man than Putin was. He at least fought US mercs and Georgians.

While simultaneously favoring economic and military deals with Western nations, deals that had repercussions right up to this day.  

Look, I want more than anyone else for Russia to flex a bit of muscle and give the US a smack in the face it won't soon forget, and I know that time will come, but for now it's a matter of playing the waiting game. There is no point in acting hurriedly or irrationally if time is on your side, just let the US stew and stew, and when the time is right you'll have some nice tasty American soup.

Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!

I find wrong the coments about the NATO wishing to create an independent Kurdistan. This is wrong unless you are refered to territory from Iran.

As example what happened in Spain. Some volunteers go to the Kurdistan to fight the ISIS with the Kurds, and at their return they are jailed and charged with terrorism because Kurds organizations remain in the lists of terrorist organizations of the NATO and Europe. This is the reality of the support of the NATO to the Kurds.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/exclusive-interview-spanish-communist-leader-jailed-supporting-pkk/

Note that these Spanish volunteers going to fight the ISIS with the Kurds are ideologically the same people that has been going to the Donbass to fight with the Armed Forces of Novorussia. These people are not NATO supporters. They hate the NATO.

Also the people is not taking into account the importance of the Kurds in the government of Iraq, and the movement of this government toward Iran and Russia, and how the Kurds are moving in the area in the last two-three years.

The NATO would support, and surely has been promoting a war between the Kurds and Iran, the first partner today of Russia in the area. The NATO would love to build an independent Kurdistan with territory from Iran, but they failed. The Kurds are going other way. They are trying an independent Kurdistan from the basis of their Turkish territory. Surely they think also about their territories in Irak, where they share the government with the Arab Shiis. It is possible that they think also in territory of Syria, but at this point they are not fighting their government.

The US see how the Kurds are the alone group that they initailly supported in Syria that is being successfull lately. Why? because the supply lines from Iraq (that come from Iran). Iran is who is really keeping living the North-East combat line in the borders of the ISIS. Without Iran the Kurds would fall like the rest of the groups that are being supported by the US, and the main reason of it is the limited help that the US is giving.

OminousSpudd wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

sepheronx wrote:...............

I am not saying Kurds, but Turks, US and their terrorist buddies Al-Sham and FSA will start moving west.

....................

Seph, Turks did not do anything here on their own. They were allowed to do it by Russia. And Turks know it. They will be busy with Kurds up there for a long time.

Anyone goes west he is fried. Al-Sham and FSA can and do try it all the time. So far no joy. And there will be none. That is Russian real estate now.

Just wait and see. Notice how US took Ukraine easily? And that is native Russian lands. Russian pilot dies, Russian authorities state they will never forget or forgive Turkey over this, and then they did. After a simple apology.  At that point, the Russian people should have had mass demonstrations against Putin for being such a fucking bitch, but nope.  No, Turkey didn't get Russian approval. They don't need to. Russia rolls over. Medvedev was more of a man than Putin was. He at least fought US mercs and Georgians.

Notice how the US took Ukraine easily?
Er... No? Russia for all intents and purposes has come out on top, NATO has a banana republic to manipulate, Russia has the Donbass, which keeps the junta's hands tied. Russia also has Crimea, with complete authority over it as a federal subject. Navy, air, land now form a bastion in the Black Sea that Russia could not utilize to its fullest extent when it was under Ukraine, not to mention production structure.

Putin for being such a fucking bitch Which is why the US is absolutely pissing themselves? Russia has outmaneuvered them in every situation AND avoided the war that they so desperately crave. Lets see: Europe's fucked economically, and it's suicidal to boot, I give it a maximum of ten years before it descends into anarchy/civil war/fractures, so goodbye NATO, for what that pathetic alliance is worth. The US has nothing but a giant military attempting to prop up it's failing petro-dollar, and is acting more and more irrational as time goes on. They're 80's USSR on fricken steroids right now, except not willing to back out, and with a massive Achilles heel. They are also running out of options with their bloated military, as most potential consumable target nations have buffed their militaries considerably since Desert Storm, and attacking them will only unveil just how much of a paper tiger the US is (heavy losses, both equipment and actual casualties, as well as pin-popping their prima-dona: "Air Superiority"). Russia is rapidly outpacing them in the technological department, while not over spending on procurement, simply because the US MIC is corrupt beyond repair.

Motherland doesn't even have to do anything at this point. Time is well and truly on our side, literally grab popcorn and watch as the US plays its last few cards ineffectively, namely being hybrid warfare and sanctions, and then implodes melodramatically.

Russia fucked up because they didn't deal with Turkey after Su-24 being shot down. They talked tough but were far too quick to forgive. No money, no arrest and such for the people responsible. Nothing. But they forgave them after two of their own were murdered.

Except Turkey lost how many personnel to magical unicorn MANPADS and ATGMs? I know, I know, we can only speculate they were from Russia, but that's the whole idea. Add some sanctions to the mix, and suddenly Duh-dogan realizes how insecure his little Ottoman Empire is.

Medvedev was more of a man than Putin was. He at least fought US mercs and Georgians.

While simultaneously favoring economic and military deals with Western nations, deals that had repercussions right up to this day.  

Look, I want more than anyone else for Russia to flex a bit of muscle and give the US a smack in the face it won't soon forget, and I know that time will come, but for now it's a matter of playing the waiting game. There is no point in acting hurriedly or irrationally if time is on your side, just let the US stew and stew, and when the time is right you'll have some nice tasty American soup.

You make a good argument but at the time Medvedev made economic deals, it was being pushed by everyone else anyway so he just takes the blame. But at least he showed enough strength for NATO to start second guessing themselves.

On the rest, you make a fair point. But a lot of it is "time will tell" and I just have the fear that Turkey and US will use this as pretext to invade fully and take Assad out.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Maybe US and Turkey though are using this as a pretext to target Assad. Saudi Arabia has jets in Turkey ready to be used as well (F-15's). So I imagine that they will be targeting Assad. Now if that happens, what will Russia do? They got S-400's and bunch of advanced jets, yet they will not use them it seems.

If they wont defend SAA, then at least they should be supplying more advanced weapons to SAA to help fight off the invaders. IEL MiG-29's, Su-27's and more air defense systems. Maybe even help build up mini IADS around pockets to protect SyAF and installations. They must be ready at all costs.

It is the possibilities here and the other groups are very sure in getting rid of Assad. When that happens, it will be an Anti-Russian country and Russia will lose more bases and influence.

Y Yeah let's give more weapons to a military group that needs a total overhaul on its core. Let's not actually try and deal this differently than the SAA tried before.

I understand the SAA is generally incompetent but they still have an air force that could use some newer aircraft to help secure their borders a bit better and give them a possible edge over potential enemy (Turkey and US). The IADS is wishful thinking but still an idea. The US cannot be trusted, not even 1% of trust. So it is ideal to prepare for the worst. Those MiG-23's and older MiG-29's are just not going to cut it. Give an inch, the US and Turks will take a mile.

Seph, you are giving insane amount of undue credit to Turks. They will stay in the north as per their orders otherwise they risk entering VKS killzone.

As for their flunkies going into Aleppo, they are already there. They've been there since forever. SAA needs to get their heads out of their asses and start pulling their weight. Good news is that they seem to have plugged that gap somehow.

And you are absolutely right in that post when you said that Russia should start fortifying West Syria. Hmeim base is already locked down and now they need to do the same with Damascus (maybe one more place as well). But they can't do that until local morons finally clear out rebel enclaves over there. There is also some progress on that front as well.

PapaDragon wrote:Seph, you are giving insane amount of undue credit to Turks. They will stay in the north as per their orders otherwise they risk entering VKS killzone.

As for their flunkies going into Aleppo, they are already there. They've been there since forever. SAA needs to get their heads out of their asses and start pulling their weight. Good news is that they seem to have plugged that gap somehow.

And you are absolutely right in that post when you said that Russia should start fortifying West Syria. Hmeim base is already locked down and now they need to do the same with Damascus (maybe one more place as well). But they can't do that until local morons finally clear out rebel enclaves over there. There is also some progress on that front as well.

Easy for you to say. Where are the counter battery radars Russia should be supplying to SAA? Let's not forget, Serbia got its butt kicked by NATO and lost Kosovo and Montenegro and access to the ocean.