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Russia should be putting its car factories in china , not vice-versa 
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Viktor
Austin
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macedonian
magnumcromagnon
43 posters
Russian Economy General News: #2
KomissarBojanchev- Posts : 1429
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KomissarBojanchev- Posts : 1429
Points : 1584
Join date : 2012-08-05
Age : 27
Location : Varna, Bulgaria
Russia should be putting its car factories in china , not vice-versa
Werewolf- Posts : 5927
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Join date : 2012-10-24
KomissarBojanchev wrote:Russia should be putting its car factories in china , not vice-versa
Globalisation is death to own countries industrial strength.
mutantsushi- Posts : 283
Points : 305
Join date : 2013-12-11
Uh... I easily found a story on Russia's RT itself which conveyed very different phrasing: (RT accurately sources the interview as coming from Rossiya 1, while this "MEMO" cites "a Russian magazine")Viktor wrote:Iran is proving out to be a trustworthy ally and a rather sizable one too
and Russia is also making its own "coalition of the willing"
Rouhani: Iran will not replace Russian gas export to Europe
Iran will not export natural gas to Europe if Russia stops its exports, the country's President Hassan Rouhani said yesterday.
Iran 'not ready' to replace Russian gas supplies to EU – Rouhani
...Which is the blindingly obvious reality, so indeed an announcement of FUTURE solidarity w/ Russia re: exports would be rather premature at this stage.
Rouhani's interview is largely envisioning some level of cooperation between "producers" to avoid excessive price production, not dealing with political embargoes etc.
That whole site you posted from seems pretty prejudiced perspective, read the story on Yemen/Houthis/interviewing Tawakkol Karman,
full of trappings of "peaceful civil activism", yet de facto defending the Gulf regimes against some all powerful Iranian conspiracy,
lionizing the "Yemeni revolution" which resulted in Saleh's general running the country following a single candidate "election".
Fact is, as "Color Revolutions" show, civil activists can just as easily serve the purpose of imperial masters, as armed groups can.
Her evidence of Saleh and Yemeni military now working for/with Houthis is some army units surrendering to Houthi militia,
indeed the whole interview is filled with baseless claims, e.g. Saleh being flooded with Iranian money, ignoring US/Saudi cash...
(yet he was also backing al-Qaeda according to her, apparently also an Iranian stooge by her logic)
Fact is, Saleh was a self-interested thug who the West and Saudis were happy to work with for a long time,
when he wasn't able to keep the country together under his (and West/Saudi) thumb, they shifted to other means of control.
The interview is transparent in ascribing a benevolent role to "international community" and "the region's states, foremost amongst them the Gulf States",
while ascribing pure hostility to Iran, and holding similar reflexive hostility to Hezbollah, a perspective which pertains to Sunni sectarian Gulf Regimes.
The idea that Iran is pursuing regional sectarian war, when it is the minority sect, while Saudi official theology is inherently sectarian and hostile to non-Sunni, is absurd. Never mind Iranian backing for Hamas, a Sunni/Muslim Brotherhood group.
Far from a humble Yemeni civil activist, Karman's agenda transparently serves GCC:
"We shall not allow the implementation of a plot that will turn Sanaa into the gate through which Iran will bring down the entire Arab region."
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/articles/middle-east/14457-nobel-peace-laureate-accuses-the-houthis-of-betraying-yemen-revolution
NationalRus- Posts : 610
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Join date : 2010-04-11
Iran will not export natural gas to Europe if Russia stops its exports, the country's President Hassan Rouhani said yesterday."
you are giving him to much credit, i saw the whole interview, he said he would not export natural gas to europe becouse HE CANT and not becouse he doesnt want to, and he cant becouse they dont produce that amount of gas, even close yet!
kvs
kvs- Posts : 15842
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Join date : 2014-09-11
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http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/print.aspx?file=credit_statistics/debt_an_det_new_e.htm&pid=svs&sid=itm_272
Look at the what constitutes most of this "debt". It is current accounts and deposits for both public and private. Not bonds or loans.
Compare to
http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/debta2014q2.html
The current accounts and deposits is only a fraction of the total.
The Russian financial system is peculiar and has huge assets invested abroad. There are a lot of funny transactions occurring all the time
and we should be careful not to mistake Russian money recirculating through foreign banks as "debt".
The following is an interesting read about Russia's "capital flight"
http://www.bne.eu/content/story/comment-russia%E2%80%99s-capital-outflow-smoke-mirrors-and-shades-grey
Look at the what constitutes most of this "debt". It is current accounts and deposits for both public and private. Not bonds or loans.
Compare to
http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/debta2014q2.html
The current accounts and deposits is only a fraction of the total.
The Russian financial system is peculiar and has huge assets invested abroad. There are a lot of funny transactions occurring all the time
and we should be careful not to mistake Russian money recirculating through foreign banks as "debt".
The following is an interesting read about Russia's "capital flight"
http://www.bne.eu/content/story/comment-russia%E2%80%99s-capital-outflow-smoke-mirrors-and-shades-grey
Austin- Posts : 7617
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Join date : 2010-05-08
Location : India
I see no reason why Iran should stop gas should russian gas stop flowing to Europe.
Its like saying Russia should stop oil/gas to europe because right now iran is under sanction.
Iran is a close allay of Russia and perhaps the only one in ME besides Syria that can be trust worthy , if Iran grow economically its good for russia.
Russian gas will always be in good demand in Asia and in LNG Market , even if Europe does not want to buy them which is unlikely the case.
Its like saying Russia should stop oil/gas to europe because right now iran is under sanction.
Iran is a close allay of Russia and perhaps the only one in ME besides Syria that can be trust worthy , if Iran grow economically its good for russia.
Russian gas will always be in good demand in Asia and in LNG Market , even if Europe does not want to buy them which is unlikely the case.
Austin- Posts : 7617
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Decline in oil prices
Tass
Tass
As reported by Tass last week, the price of Brent, the value used to calculate the Russian Urals, has fallen to the lowest level since the summer of 2012, a decrease of 1.75% to $ 92.54 per barrel.
The average price of Urals oil in January-September 2014 decreased compared to the same period last year by 2.5%, to $ 105.07 a barrel. In January-September 2013, it was $ 107.73 per barrel.
In September 2014 compared with the same period last year decreased oil prices by 13.5% over the month, it has developed in the amount of $ 95.84 per barrel (in August of 2013 - $ 110.86 per barrel). In this case, by the end of August 2014 the average oil price was fixed at $ 101.09 per barrel, ie in September decreased by 5.2%.
magnumcromagnon- Posts : 8138
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Looks like speculators (like George Soros) are attacking both Russian bonds, as well as driving the price of oil down as a indirect act of economic warfare (very reminiscent of the 80's). What these fool-hardy jackasses don't realize is that they can't weaken both Russia, and China with the same economic warfare tactics. Driving the price down will hurt Russia, but will strengthen China (cheaper fuel costs) and vice versa.
Viktor- Posts : 5796
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Perhaps because Russia was the only one that helped Iran sail throughout recent international storm about nuclear program and despite incredible pressure build NPP. Without Russia help Iran could easilly have found itself in situation where its being daily bombed in a war against weste and that counts. That counts a lot and now with Russia in a similir situation time has come to return the favor. Iran will imensly prosper because of new deals with Russia and that will not be sacrificed to the oltar of those who imposed sanctions on you and want to bomb you for the past 40 years. Instead Iran will do just the opposite and seek even closer integration with Russia and China and India the are other ways than west you know and Iran has shown the way. So no matter the thing that cronollogy matters and I posted my article first the thing is that EU can not count on Iran gas as a substitute for Russian one.Austin wrote:I see no reason why Iran should stop gas should russian gas stop flowing to Europe.
Its like saying Russia should stop oil/gas to europe because right now iran is under sanction.
Iran is a close allay of Russia and perhaps the only one in ME besides Syria that can be trust worthy , if Iran grow economically its good for russia.
Russian gas will always be in good demand in Asia and in LNG Market , even if Europe does not want to buy them which is unlikely the case.
sepheronx- Posts : 8824
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Me personally, im happy oil prices are falling since it means cheaper gas prices at the pump (even if it is still high). For Russia? Well, good thing they secured a deal with China for 30 years. Hopefully gas does not drastically drop.
Big benefit? At least Russia will try to put more emphasis into developing more end products to make wealth. Bad? The easy cash flow is going to drop.
I hear Russians are paying market price for their oil and gas. Maybe they need to lower the cost to increase domestic consumption.
Which, apparently is the biggest factor of Russias economic slump. People are apparently not spending which is then hurting the economy. What Canada did was push for higher wages (even though goods cost a lot/raised in price) in order to get people to spend. Instead of just raising miliary units wages, they should increase wages of industrial workers and specialists, to keep them. Military units can now make more money than oil and gas workers in Russia. Does this sound familiar? Sounds awefully like Egypt.
Big benefit? At least Russia will try to put more emphasis into developing more end products to make wealth. Bad? The easy cash flow is going to drop.
I hear Russians are paying market price for their oil and gas. Maybe they need to lower the cost to increase domestic consumption.
Which, apparently is the biggest factor of Russias economic slump. People are apparently not spending which is then hurting the economy. What Canada did was push for higher wages (even though goods cost a lot/raised in price) in order to get people to spend. Instead of just raising miliary units wages, they should increase wages of industrial workers and specialists, to keep them. Military units can now make more money than oil and gas workers in Russia. Does this sound familiar? Sounds awefully like Egypt.
sepheronx- Posts : 8824
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magnumcromagnon wrote:Looks like speculators (like George Soros) are attacking both Russian bonds, as well as driving the price of oil down as a indirect act of economic warfare (very reminiscent of the 80's). What these fool-hardy jackasses don't realize is that they can't weaken both Russia, and China with the same economic warfare tactics. Driving the price down will hurt Russia, but will strengthen China (cheaper fuel costs) and vice versa.
There are ways around this. Since Russia is aiming at Asia, africa and middle east for its influence and economic expansion, Russia can put its bond market and wrll, anything else in HK stock exchange, Singapoure, Shanghai, Mumbai, etc. Value of currency compared to the other only matters when trying to do trade in the others currency. Since Russia is dedollerizing, the USD to RUB will make no difference to Russia.
That said, Russia isnt seeing the same slump as Japan at the moment. While low Rub value has allowed some indsutries to prosper, seems Japan is not. Cad also dropped in value considerably and still dropping. It isnt just Russia. At least they got some excuse, other countries do not.
sepheronx- Posts : 8824
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http://m.rbth.com/business/2014/10/03/25_percent_of_russian_oil_market_in_jeopardy_as_foreign_partners_mov_40325.html
This is why I am happy about all of this. This shows to Russian politicians (and people) a couple of things:
1) dont trust EU and US as they will go after your main resource to hurt you.
2) better to invest the money into the technology to build it yourself vs getting others to do it.
Sad that Russias main strategic resource relies on foreign tech. Now, Russian compnaies are going to have to scramble to develop it themselves. Which rosneft stated they dont need foreign investors for this. Which is true since rosneft is a multibillion dollar organization, they can easily afford to build a daughter company to build the technology to extract the resources.
There is also China. Whom does resource exploration as well. Maybe looking to them may be good. But ultimately, Russia shpuld have done the deep sea and fracking tech themselves.
This is why I am happy about all of this. This shows to Russian politicians (and people) a couple of things:
1) dont trust EU and US as they will go after your main resource to hurt you.
2) better to invest the money into the technology to build it yourself vs getting others to do it.
Sad that Russias main strategic resource relies on foreign tech. Now, Russian compnaies are going to have to scramble to develop it themselves. Which rosneft stated they dont need foreign investors for this. Which is true since rosneft is a multibillion dollar organization, they can easily afford to build a daughter company to build the technology to extract the resources.
There is also China. Whom does resource exploration as well. Maybe looking to them may be good. But ultimately, Russia shpuld have done the deep sea and fracking tech themselves.
Viktor- Posts : 5796
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sepheronx wrote:http://m.rbth.com/business/2014/10/03/25_percent_of_russian_oil_market_in_jeopardy_as_foreign_partners_mov_40325.html
This is why I am happy about all of this. This shows to Russian politicians (and people) a couple of things:
1) dont trust EU and US as they will go after your main resource to hurt you.
2) better to invest the money into the technology to build it yourself vs getting others to do it.
Sad that Russias main strategic resource relies on foreign tech. Now, Russian compnaies are going to have to scramble to develop it themselves. Which rosneft stated they dont need foreign investors for this. Which is true since rosneft is a multibillion dollar organization, they can easily afford to build a daughter company to build the technology to extract the resources.
There is also China. Whom does resource exploration as well. Maybe looking to them may be good. But ultimately, Russia shpuld have done the deep sea and fracking tech themselves.
I have different views about why this is actually good.
1. Russia drilled the depeast hole in the earth so they have the domestic technology avaible but the thing is that because up until now they did not need to use it because oil was at the
surface
2. Russia bought (1 day before US anounced sanctions
) projects buiro that specially makes those kind of equipment in Switzerland + all the existing contracts made up to that date where to be honored which includes deal (also signed few days before sanctions) with Norway about massive drilling equipment and exploration.
3. RF will have biggere profit margin if it goes on its own and western companies will have nothing to drill because of the sanctions.
4. If RF decides that it needs foreign partner Im sure China/India oil companies would be happy to join in.
5. Sanctions will ultimatively lead to higher oil prices in the future which means RF will have its profit back with interest
6. Recently Russia made its own company for production of drilling equipment which is excellent thing as one of the sanction consequences
sepheronx- Posts : 8824
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India backed out of a LNG Yamal because other foreigners backed out of it. India is just riding the wave to get easy money. If they see that it may become somewhat of a challenge and that easy money may not be so easy (even if payout is huge), they wont do it. Japan is now looking to build its own LNG plant in Vladivostok, which I find funny since all this Japanese anti Russian rhetoric from Abe doesn't seem to be faltering any business deals between the two countries (probably because Japanese economy is screwed and they need cheap gas).
India is a good partner and all, but they are not that trustworthy when looking at business deals unless it means easy money for them. China may be far more interested, but even then, S.Korea and Vietnam may be even more interested in any LNG plant as they are other buyers of Russian LNG. Egypt too is buying Russian LNG, so it may be good for them to get involved in LNG development in Russia (Egypt is turning out to be a pretty good business partner. Since Lada is now built in Egypt).
Buying assets or placing assets in foreign countries is a very scary business because it could mean that those assets can be frozen in that respective country, and thus you will not be able to gain access to it. That is why the Russian government is contemplating what to do with Sberbanks foreign reserve assets which amount up to $500B. Because they know they will lose all that from a simple freeze of assets. Same can happen with the oil and gas extraction equipment from Norway and Switzerland, as they can also be frozen by the governments will. May not be legal, but what ever has been legal under US business? strength? Remember France got sued by US to get them to leave an energy project in Iran, which a US company got right after France got sued. That isn't fair or legal, but whatever.
Russia has a lot to be worried about, and their foreign reserves is a major one because if that gets frozen, then any liquidity that CB will have will be entirely gone. Bonus of that is that they can then force out CB entirely and take over and it would be publicly owned/state owned again, rather than private. Same goes for this oil and gas technology.
Just read this: http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/53548/
So it seems Belarus is also an alternative. But who knows what Belarus politics will be in 10 years from now. Seeing how they are warming up to Europe, even if they join Eurasian union, they may just leave it sometime in the future to join EU (they have antiRussian rhetorics there too). So even relying on Belarus is dangerous too. They need to build it at home, and also find another route to Kaliningrad as well.
India is a good partner and all, but they are not that trustworthy when looking at business deals unless it means easy money for them. China may be far more interested, but even then, S.Korea and Vietnam may be even more interested in any LNG plant as they are other buyers of Russian LNG. Egypt too is buying Russian LNG, so it may be good for them to get involved in LNG development in Russia (Egypt is turning out to be a pretty good business partner. Since Lada is now built in Egypt).
Buying assets or placing assets in foreign countries is a very scary business because it could mean that those assets can be frozen in that respective country, and thus you will not be able to gain access to it. That is why the Russian government is contemplating what to do with Sberbanks foreign reserve assets which amount up to $500B. Because they know they will lose all that from a simple freeze of assets. Same can happen with the oil and gas extraction equipment from Norway and Switzerland, as they can also be frozen by the governments will. May not be legal, but what ever has been legal under US business? strength? Remember France got sued by US to get them to leave an energy project in Iran, which a US company got right after France got sued. That isn't fair or legal, but whatever.
Russia has a lot to be worried about, and their foreign reserves is a major one because if that gets frozen, then any liquidity that CB will have will be entirely gone. Bonus of that is that they can then force out CB entirely and take over and it would be publicly owned/state owned again, rather than private. Same goes for this oil and gas technology.
Just read this: http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/53548/
So it seems Belarus is also an alternative. But who knows what Belarus politics will be in 10 years from now. Seeing how they are warming up to Europe, even if they join Eurasian union, they may just leave it sometime in the future to join EU (they have antiRussian rhetorics there too). So even relying on Belarus is dangerous too. They need to build it at home, and also find another route to Kaliningrad as well.
Austin- Posts : 7617
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I hope the new Western Route deal is signed for either 60 or 100 bcm and not 30 , that way they can show Europe the middle finger.
Falling Oil Price is a concern for lot of country not just Russia, Read the new below
World on the brink of oil war as Opec bickers over price
Falling Oil Price is a concern for lot of country not just Russia, Read the new below
World on the brink of oil war as Opec bickers over price
Viktor- Posts : 5796
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saudi risk people mutiny if oil price fall to much. Russians know it and because of it will let Saudi/OPEC deal with it while themselves will not reduce production. I think new Russia China deal will be somewhat little smaller but with options to increase it in the future to aprox EU lvl. Oil prices will not be small in any case meaning insignificant problems for Russia while at the same time will give them oportunity to further optimize themselves thus making whole administration more efficient which will come in handy once oil prices grow back.Austin wrote:I hope the new Western Route deal is signed for either 60 or 100 bcm and not 30 , that way they can show Europe the middle finger.
Falling Oil Price is a concern for lot of country not just Russia, Read the new below
World on the brink of oil war as Opec bickers over price
mutantsushi- Posts : 283
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I believe that deal was buying Schlumberger's subsidiary dedicated to operations in Russia,Viktor wrote:2. Russia bought (1 day before US anounced sanctions
where to be honored which includes deal (also signed few days before sanctions) with Norway about massive drilling equipment and exploration.
i.e. it was more about maintaining current projects, not future projects with new tech,
any future projects could just as well be done by Russian contractors outside Schlumberger Russia umbrella,
and there is little access to new tech/niques with just the Russian subsidiary. Still, it's about minimizing disruption,
while Russia tries to ramp up indigenous develoments in future tech...
mutantsushi- Posts : 283
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Didn't Russia's EEZ deal with Norway entail a 'shared' zone straddling the border line, where both have 50% share?
So that zone cannot be sanctioned without hurting Norway as much as Russia/
Russia can allow Norway/Statoil to "prime" the project while collecting it's share, etc...
So that zone cannot be sanctioned without hurting Norway as much as Russia/
Russia can allow Norway/Statoil to "prime" the project while collecting it's share, etc...
kvs- Posts : 15842
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http://orientalreview.org/2014/09/29/massive-new-debt-hides-years-of-negative-gdp-growth-in-eu-and-usa/
Says it all, really.
Says it all, really.
zg18- Posts : 888
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Austin wrote:Falling Oil Price is a concern for lot of country not just Russia, Read the new below
World on the brink of oil war as Opec bickers over price
Oil price/strong dollar is dangerous to those countries that have fixed exchange rate and rely on that for their welfare, which means for every dollar less there is less exchange money in "native" currency for the budget. Russia will not have that problem because unlike the USSR it can actually devalue currency.
Moscow is largely dependent on crude sales for foreign currency earnings and oil trading at around $80 per barrel for a period of months could bring the country to its knees.
This , shows how much West started to believe it`s own propaganda or simply this particular journo is uneducated , Soviet Union was hit by low oil prices because it couldn`t devalue it`s currency without triggering massive inflation that was accumulated in the economy (ordinary Russians felt that when Yegor Gaidar released that inflation from the system to consumer).
sepheronx- Posts : 8824
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-06/why-stocks-just-wont-drop-companies-spend-almost-all-profits-buybacks
Well well well. Isnt that dirty?
Well well well. Isnt that dirty?
sepheronx- Posts : 8824
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Apparently there is a trade surplus (again) in Russia, which I suppose is helping increase the cobsolidated revenue. $3B to be exact. Now some are saying it is due to devaluation of currency, or that it isnt good to get such saved money due to help hurting currency, as well, they think it is due to lack of purchases from abroad.
But what they dont seem to factor in, is import substitution is in full swing in Russia, agrculture has seen major improvement, and ultimately, businesses are fairing better due to lower value currency due to higher export and lower import.
But what they dont seem to factor in, is import substitution is in full swing in Russia, agrculture has seen major improvement, and ultimately, businesses are fairing better due to lower value currency due to higher export and lower import.
Austin- Posts : 7617
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Along with devaluation they have also seen rise in inflation so devaluating your currency has its own plus and minus
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1299/economics/advantages-and-disadvantages-of-devaluation/
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1299/economics/advantages-and-disadvantages-of-devaluation/
sepheronx- Posts : 8824
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Well, technically both aspects can be controlled. For big business, lower value of currency is great because:
- cheaper to operate
- goods have better chance of selling more outside of the country
- investment can go further
- additional resource extraction in respective country can be cheaper
- infrastructure costs can lower (depending if materials are domestic or foreign.
Bad:
- higher prices for average person
- imports cost more
- people trying to use higher valued currency rather than domestic
The good thing is, Russia is pushing more and more into creating the products at home. As well, China sees this as a good opportunity to invest in manufacturing in Russia due to it being cheaper (same in India where currency value is even less). Bad aspect is thay iphones will cost more. This should be prime opportunity to start making such tech goods in Russia as it will be cheaper.
Hence why China can get away with having a currency float below.
Inflation can hurt mainly at imports. Importing industries in Russia are getting hit hard and the oligarches behind it are pissed at Putin. But who cares about those guys, as they make.money out of nothing pretty much and are hurting local industry.
China and Russia can also determin what the values are of their respective currency if they are not willing to trade with each other in USD. Hence why India is also interested in BRICS.
Was read on rbth, that many industries in Russia are using their USD and other currencies to buy back stock and improving their efficiency, and thus, improved production and increased profit. So for those already in the market/field/business its great. Those starting out? Will maybe cost more unless gov steps in to prevent inflation on costs of construction and production.
- cheaper to operate
- goods have better chance of selling more outside of the country
- investment can go further
- additional resource extraction in respective country can be cheaper
- infrastructure costs can lower (depending if materials are domestic or foreign.
Bad:
- higher prices for average person
- imports cost more
- people trying to use higher valued currency rather than domestic
The good thing is, Russia is pushing more and more into creating the products at home. As well, China sees this as a good opportunity to invest in manufacturing in Russia due to it being cheaper (same in India where currency value is even less). Bad aspect is thay iphones will cost more. This should be prime opportunity to start making such tech goods in Russia as it will be cheaper.
Hence why China can get away with having a currency float below.
Inflation can hurt mainly at imports. Importing industries in Russia are getting hit hard and the oligarches behind it are pissed at Putin. But who cares about those guys, as they make.money out of nothing pretty much and are hurting local industry.
China and Russia can also determin what the values are of their respective currency if they are not willing to trade with each other in USD. Hence why India is also interested in BRICS.
Was read on rbth, that many industries in Russia are using their USD and other currencies to buy back stock and improving their efficiency, and thus, improved production and increased profit. So for those already in the market/field/business its great. Those starting out? Will maybe cost more unless gov steps in to prevent inflation on costs of construction and production.