Russia's titanium industry will not get sanctionsAnalyst Oleg Panteleev: American business will make every effort to prevent the introduction of sanctions against AVISMA
VSMPO-deeply integrated into the global aerospace industry and for many companies, a strategic supplier of titanium products. Selectivity imposed on the domestic industry as an example of sanctions AVISMA is visible as well as possible. About the partnership between Boeing and VSMPO-AVISMA, possible risks that may be incurred by Western and Russian participants of the market, says Oleg Panteleyev, head of analytical department of the agency "AviaPort".ON THE LIKELY RISKSWith the unfavorable scenario of the main risks for Western companies can be divided into three components. The first - the time spent on trying to find alternative AVISMA suppliers, wait, that they increased their production, mastered a new range of products.
Russian titanium is about 40% of the total consumption of products made from this material for Boeing, 60% - for Airbus, and for Embraer - 100%. In the United States, Canada, China and Europe have producers of titanium products, competing with the Russian giant, but they can not confidently confront him in the fight for customers in terms of value for money products, the extent of the release, as well as on a number of technological opportunities. For example, AVISMA has a unique, world's most powerful hydraulic press with a force of 75 thousand. Tons.
Accurately estimate the time required to complete replacement of supplies from Russia, it is difficult - it all depends on how you have previously built the relationship between aircraft manufacturers and their contractors. Fend off this threat can only be filled warehouse and only at the expense of the buyer.
The second, related to this circumstance - the risk appreciation procurement. In today's world there is no other manufacturer that would supervise the chain from titanium sponge to the machining of forgings and stampings, including bulky items. This vertical integration allows for the most effective management of costs.
Reorientation to new suppliers will change the logistics. For example, within the Ural Boeing Manufacturing - a joint venture by Boeing and VSMPO-AVISMA - for machining parts for wing groups, while on their own capacities Russian company is engaged in machining parts of the chassis. All activities are focused on an area of the Upper Salda, thereby reducing transportation costs.
Another risk for the Western partners is that the critical details necessary to use special equipment, such as a Russian unique hydraulic press. No other manufacturer of the world is immune from damage such a unit, and the output of equipment for planned maintenance at all inevitable. But AVISMA has an agreement with Alcoa on the use of existing Samara similar press. It is strategically important trump card, which makes the technological risks of cooperation with AVISMA minimal.
PROSPECTSIf we recall that before the collapse of the Soviet Union was VSMPO volume of more than 70 thousand. Tons of titanium products a year, it becomes obvious potential of the company to increase the volume of the issue. Although, unfortunately, today domestic engineering industry will not be able to consume the same amount of titanium as it was true in the 1980s: Russia today is not as implements large-scale projects, for example, does not produce titanium submarines. However, there is potential for growth in terms of the internal market, and in terms of export sales, and in terms of the development of the new nomenclature.
Note that the search for new markets - is an activity that should not in any way depend on the relationships with existing major partners, and the more it is not a response to the inadequacy of the foreign policy of the West. That's why AVISMA from year to year is a party to all major aerospace salons and exhibitions in the field of metallurgy and engineering.
FORECASTSToday it is not necessary to draw a gloomy picture. Let's start with the fact that to date the sanctions against enterprises of the national military-industrial complex used primarily to companies not included in the supply chain of the western manufacturers of aerospace equipment. An example of cooperation in the export of Russian rocket engines in the United States is very significant. And whenever the West there was vested interest in a particular transaction, suddenly there are exceptions.
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If you examine the more than 20-year history of the relationship AVISMA and Boeing, is grounds for a confident view of the future is more than enough. For example, in the summer, at the height of sanctions war, the parties signed another agreement shall be extended for three years (until 2022) the existing contractual obligations. The company also confirmed its readiness to continue working together to create a second line of machining plant in Titanium Valley.
Between Boeing and VSMPO-AVISMA really developed partnerships far beyond relations "buyer - seller ". Boeing is spending billions of dollars in Russia not only as a payment of finished products, but also to invest in joint development of titanium alloys, equipment, first one, and now the second venture for machining. This large-scale investments, and, of course, the American company is interested to make it work and make a profit.
So I'm sure that even if the current situation of foreign business in the USA will make every effort to ensure that the sanctions against the company AVISMA not introduced. Pragmatic Americans know how to count money and appreciate the beneficial partnership.
AUTHOR: OLEG PANTELEEVHead of the Analytical Services Agency "AviaPort"
http://rostec.ru/news/4514733
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