Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues
zg18 wrote:Global buyers snap up Russian corporate debt
http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3503387/Category/7/ChannelPage/8959/Global-buyers-snap-up-Russian-corporate-debt.html
✓ Start the printing press. Finally, to cover the deficit can print money. The central bank could finance the budget. Not directly, of course, but through the provision of loans to banks. Then these banks will be given money to the government (for example, through the purchase of government bonds). In his last report to the anti-crisis presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev directly proposed controller release 7.5 trillion. rubles for five years, and printed money spent on investments in the economy. According to the financier Sergei Hestanova, the implementation of this idea will inevitably lead to hyperinflation, severe economic recession and the dollarization of the economy. Print extra money in a recession never led to an improvement in the situation.
Karl Haushofer wrote:Economic growth in Russia has been basically flat since 2011:
Actually the level of GDP is right now at the same level as in 2008. This means that Russia has gone through almost a decade without growth!
In order to reach greater heights Russia needs economic growth, but right now it is not happening. According to most estimates the economic growth will remain flat in the coming years as well. So has Russian economy already reached it's full potential for no prospect for more growth?
Police have detained in Moscow the leader of a criminal gang which siphoned $46 billion out of Russia
In Moscow police have detained Alexander Grigoriev, leader of a criminal gang which investigators consider the organizer
of a criminal association for the transfer of monetary resources out of Russia.
Investigators believe that Grigoriev, the former co-owner of several banks, "Western", "Transport", "Russian Land" and
"Doninvest", headed a criminal group of 500 individuals, which engaged in money transfer out of Russia. The group also
include about 60 banks including ones with government participation.
Evidence indicates that Grigoriev and his gang moved $46 billion out Russian in the last 4 years.
That is a lot of money! How do you suppose they will get that money back? Good thing is, those banks I believe are gone and the authorities arrested him. CBR I think has a lot of oversight and not due to compromised organization but pure incompetence much like the interest rate policy. Good thing is, they are saying now that they see that there will be a further decrease in interest rates. But this further gives ammunition to those who believe all bankers are criminals.kvs wrote:http://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/144630/
Police have detained in Moscow the leader of a criminal gang which siphoned $46 billion out of Russia
In Moscow police have detained Alexander Grigoriev, leader of a criminal gang which investigators consider the organizer
of a criminal association for the transfer of monetary resources out of Russia.
Investigators believe that Grigoriev, the former co-owner of several banks, "Western", "Transport", "Russian Land" and
"Doninvest", headed a criminal group of 500 individuals, which engaged in money transfer out of Russia. The group also
include about 60 banks including ones with government participation.
Evidence indicates that Grigoriev and his gang moved $46 billion out Russian in the last 4 years.
This case offers yet more evidence that the CBR is a compromised organization. It is failing in its duty of oversight in a
very bad way in addition to its ridiculous interest rate policy.
MOSCOW, November 7 - RIA Novosti. The State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes recommended the lower house of parliament adopted on first reading a draft law on the preservation of 2016 the rate of export customs duty on crude oil at a rate of 42%.
According to the Prime Minister, who has made the document, it will in 2016 further forward in the federal budget of 200 billion rubles.
kvs wrote:http://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/144630/
Police have detained in Moscow the leader of a criminal gang which siphoned $46 billion out of Russia
In Moscow police have detained Alexander Grigoriev, leader of a criminal gang which investigators consider the organizer
of a criminal association for the transfer of monetary resources out of Russia.
Investigators believe that Grigoriev, the former co-owner of several banks, "Western", "Transport", "Russian Land" and
"Doninvest", headed a criminal group of 500 individuals, which engaged in money transfer out of Russia. The group also
include about 60 banks including ones with government participation.
Evidence indicates that Grigoriev and his gang moved $46 billion out Russian in the last 4 years.
This case offers yet more evidence that the CBR is a compromised organization. It is failing in its duty of oversight in a
very bad way in addition to its ridiculous interest rate policy.
MOSCOW, November 7 - RIA Novosti. The State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes recommended the lower house of parliament adopted on first reading a government bill to increase by 36.7% of the base value of the unit of reference fuel to be used in the calculation of mineral extraction tax for gas "Gazprom".
This will in 2016 further withdraw from the "Gazprom" and send to the federal budget, according to the government, 100 billion rubles.
PapaDragon wrote:kvs wrote:http://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/144630/
Police have detained in Moscow the leader of a criminal gang which siphoned $46 billion out of Russia
In Moscow police have detained Alexander Grigoriev, leader of a criminal gang which investigators consider the organizer
of a criminal association for the transfer of monetary resources out of Russia.
Investigators believe that Grigoriev, the former co-owner of several banks, "Western", "Transport", "Russian Land" and
"Doninvest", headed a criminal group of 500 individuals, which engaged in money transfer out of Russia. The group also
include about 60 banks including ones with government participation.
Evidence indicates that Grigoriev and his gang moved $46 billion out Russian in the last 4 years.
This case offers yet more evidence that the CBR is a compromised organization. It is failing in its duty of oversight in a
very bad way in addition to its ridiculous interest rate policy.
Dude, Central Bank kept Russia from tanking last year during assault on Ruble.
Ex-GAO head: US debt is three times more than you think
The former U.S. comptroller general says the real U.S. debt is closer to about $65 trillion than the oft-cited figure of $18 trillion.
Dave Walker, who headed the Government Accountability Office (GAO) under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, said when you add up all of the nation’s unfunded liabilities, the national debt is more than three times the number generally advertised.
“If you end up adding to that $18.5 trillion the unfunded civilian and military pensions and retiree healthcare, the additional underfunding for Social Security, the additional underfunding for Medicare, various commitments and contingencies that the federal government has, the real number is about $65 trillion rather than $18 trillion, and it’s growing automatically absent reforms,” Walker told host John Catsimatidis on “The Cats Roundtable” on New York’s AM-970 in an interview airing Sunday.
The former comptroller general, who is in charge of ensuring federal spending is fiscally responsible, said a burgeoning national debt hampers the ability of government to carry out both domestic and foreign policy initiatives.
kvs wrote:http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/259476-ex-gao-head-us-debt-is-three-times-more-than-you-think
Ex-GAO head: US debt is three times more than you think
The former U.S. comptroller general says the real U.S. debt is closer to about $65 trillion than the oft-cited figure of $18 trillion.
kvs wrote:
I have posted on this before. For most of the 2000s the Russian money supply was increasing 50% per year but the
inflation rate was under 13%. Whatever monetarist delusion that CBR operates under, Russia is not at risk of inflationary
shocks and a tight money policy is simply retarded. You could see this fact in action in late 2014 and early 2015 as
the inflation shock from the large ruble devaluation lasted until March of 2015. If Russia was in an economic regime
where inflation could grow easily this would not have happened. Instead the devaluation shock would have produced
a very long tail in the inflation spike with possible ringing effects where it would self-amplify due to negative feedbacks
on the economy. But in actuality the inflation spike was incredibly short lived.
MOSCOW. Nov 9 (Interfax) - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects Russian GDP to shrink 4% in 2015 and 0.4% in 2016, the OECD said in a statement.
The latest outlook is worse than the 3.1% decline and 0.8% growth that the OECD forecast in June.
The OECD gave its first 2017 forecast, which is for 1.7% growth. The organization previously forecast the transition to growth as early as the second half of this year.
"The economy is in recession. Falling oil prices, international sanctions and capital flight have reduced investment, domestic consumption and imports. The large depreciation of the ruble has pushed inflation to double digits and reduced real incomes, especially of the poorest. Recovery will be only gradual against the backdrop of an uncertain external environment and lack of structural reforms. Unemployment will rise from the current low levels. Growth is projected to turn positive in 2017 as exports strengthen and domestic demand recovers," the OECD said on November 9.
Annual inflation is expected to accelerate to 15.6% this year, from 7.8% in 2014, but subsequently to decelerate to 9.5% in 2016 and 6.1% in 2017. The inflation forecasts are better than the June outlook, which saw consumer prices rising 16.3% in 2015 and 7% in 2016.
Russia might have a budget deficit of 4% of GDP in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016, compared with 3.7% and 1.2% forecast in June. The deficit will likely narrow to 1.8% in 2017.
Russia will have a balance of payments surplus of 6.6% in 2015-2016 and 6.2% in 2017.
The Central Bank of Russia expects the economy to decline by 0.5%-1% in 2016 if oil trades at $50 a barrel, but the Economic Development Ministry and Finance Ministry expect it to grow 0.7%. Analysts told Interfax in a consensus forecast at the end of October that they thought GDP would fall 3.8% this year and that there would be zero growth in 2016.
higurashihougi wrote:kvs wrote:http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/259476-ex-gao-head-us-debt-is-three-times-more-than-you-think
Ex-GAO head: US debt is three times more than you think
The former U.S. comptroller general says the real U.S. debt is closer to about $65 trillion than the oft-cited figure of $18 trillion.
I take a look at the US Debt Clock and see the $65 tril in "total debt" while $18 tril in "national debt".
Does Walker means $65 tril is that "total debt". Or I am wrong ?
https://i.servimg.com/u/f21/19/02/24/05/debtcl10.jpg
Austin wrote:OECD expects Russian GDP to shrink 4% in 2015, 0.4% in 2016
http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=631702
MOSCOW. Nov 9 (Interfax) - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects Russian GDP to shrink 4% in 2015 and 0.4% in 2016, the OECD said in a statement.
The latest outlook is worse than the 3.1% decline and 0.8% growth that the OECD forecast in June.
The OECD gave its first 2017 forecast, which is for 1.7% growth. The organization previously forecast the transition to growth as early as the second half of this year.
"The economy is in recession. Falling oil prices, international sanctions and capital flight have reduced investment, domestic consumption and imports. The large depreciation of the ruble has pushed inflation to double digits and reduced real incomes, especially of the poorest. Recovery will be only gradual against the backdrop of an uncertain external environment and lack of structural reforms. Unemployment will rise from the current low levels. Growth is projected to turn positive in 2017 as exports strengthen and domestic demand recovers," the OECD said on November 9.
Annual inflation is expected to accelerate to 15.6% this year, from 7.8% in 2014, but subsequently to decelerate to 9.5% in 2016 and 6.1% in 2017. The inflation forecasts are better than the June outlook, which saw consumer prices rising 16.3% in 2015 and 7% in 2016.
Russia might have a budget deficit of 4% of GDP in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016, compared with 3.7% and 1.2% forecast in June. The deficit will likely narrow to 1.8% in 2017.
Russia will have a balance of payments surplus of 6.6% in 2015-2016 and 6.2% in 2017.
The Central Bank of Russia expects the economy to decline by 0.5%-1% in 2016 if oil trades at $50 a barrel, but the Economic Development Ministry and Finance Ministry expect it to grow 0.7%. Analysts told Interfax in a consensus forecast at the end of October that they thought GDP would fall 3.8% this year and that there would be zero growth in 2016.
Vann7 wrote:kvs wrote:
I have posted on this before. For most of the 2000s the Russian money supply was increasing 50% per year but the
inflation rate was under 13%. Whatever monetarist delusion that CBR operates under, Russia is not at risk of inflationary
shocks and a tight money policy is simply retarded. You could see this fact in action in late 2014 and early 2015 as
the inflation shock from the large ruble devaluation lasted until March of 2015. If Russia was in an economic regime
where inflation could grow easily this would not have happened. Instead the devaluation shock would have produced
a very long tail in the inflation spike with possible ringing effects where it would self-amplify due to negative feedbacks
on the economy. But in actuality the inflation spike was incredibly short lived.
Dont' you see a reason for RUssia Government not allowing Liberals to make loans in Russian banks so they later flee to the west with the money and not pay them.. ?
How about the influence aspect of all this? WOuldn't Russia have more influence in the west
if they have debt with American and European banks.. so if the west do anything stupid ,then Russia don't pay them?
If Russia was expecting a war with Americans.. in a decade or less ,will it make sense to
make big loans to your enemies before they start any war? that way they will have to think
twice of any major hostile attack against Russia economy.
I could be wrong.. not an economist.. but The way i see it.. It is precisely this "disadvantage"
of the RUssian Cental bank (high interest ,forcing business to make loans in the west and not in RUssia) what makes Russia immune to economic isolation .. because if US /EU choose for example choose to freeze bank accounts of Russia in the west.. and cut all business relations
with Russia.. then Russia can simply not pay its debts with the west. ?
Lets say this in another way.. Do you see any advantage of having big debt with your enemies? Dont this create a form of control through your debt..? if relations completely break..you dont pay them.
Lets say this in another way.. if someone ask you $1,000 dollars loan..and later promise you $1500 back..in x time.. will it make sense to you ,to totally cut relations with that person if
he haven't paid its debt first? Will it make sense to you to just wait until that persons first pay its debt for any cut in relations? THis is the reason why i think.. Is not in the interest of the kremlin to have very competitive Banks with the west in terms of Big loans and big money loans for major industries.. For the sole reason that Russia can use their debt as a political tool.
Russia total debt to American banks is like 600 to 700 billions dollars.. money that Russia can refuse to pay in case Americans freeze their bank accounts in the west or blocks Russia from the western financial industry. THis means that it will be a very big blow to western economies
to totally block Russia from Business with the west.. since Russia can simply not pay any of its debt.
All said.. it looks to me.. that the more US and EUrope have investments in Russia ,through loans given to Russian companies and Russian government.. the more difficult it will be for the west to isolate Russian business with them. Because they have too much money invested there
and closing the doors to Russia business will be suicide for their banks and financial market.
This is why i see as a good idea that the Russian Central bank have investors from the west.
this makes Russia too connected with them to be easily isolated. which in effect makes Russia immune to economic blockade.. This was the major problem of Soviets that were not open their business and banking industry with the west and could be isolated their business easily..
Just look at the mistral issue.. Didn't this business contract between Russia and France created
a major division between US and France. that nearly makes france to reject US demands and go ahead with the sale?
Americans wants to isolate Russia from the world.. and the best way Russia can lift the siege
is precisely by doing long terms business with them that they cannot get out of them easily. Gazprom is one of those long term contracts.. Russia debt with American banks is another of those Cards Russia have.. ,and the heavy investments from Europe in Russia too. Germany will lose hundreds of billions in assets if it was to close relations with Russia.
So the way i see it.. it is on Russia interest that all those Russian Billionaires make their loans
not in Russia but in the west instead. That way they cannot betray Russia and flee with the money they are given. When it comes to Normal citizens loans ,small family business might be a different story. and it will benefit Russia to have special help to their small business with local banks.. Russians Billionaires feels citizens of the world..and they are the most likely citizens to be less patriotic and just take its money and invest it abroad.
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kvs