Russian Economy General News: #6

Russian Railways to increase investments in the acquisition and modernisation of EMUs

http://www.think-railways.com/russian-railways-increase-investments-acquisition-modernisation-emus/

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Russian Railways (RZD) plans to invest RUB 3 billion in the purchase of 82 new EMUs classes ED4M and ED9E manufactured by Demikhovsky Machine Building Plant (DMZ), part of the Transmashholding (TMH) group. Last year the company’s investment program included the acquisition of 70 EMUs worth more tha RUB 2.6 billion.

In addition to the purchase of the emus for suburban services, Russian Railways will also continue investments in modernising the rolling stock fleet. In 2015, the RUB 2.8 billlion refurbishment program included 923 rail cars. For 2016 RZD plans to modernise 956 rail cars for suburban services.

The new EMU’s are designed for commuter rail services and are equipped with air conditioning, video surveillance system, and a remote diagnostics system.

Makes a good read of various opinions on current crisis


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/29/heading-for-a-crash-global-economic-meltdown-panel-repeat-2008-china-slowdown

I dont understand how they calculate current account surplus

The data even though preliminary says Current Account is $66 billion.

My Understanding is Current Account is Exports - Imports

2015 Exports $389 Billion , Imports : $ 281

So Current Account/Trade Surplus should be $108 billion.


Can some one correct me ?

Thanks

Russia could raise state debt but must consider risks - central banker

http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-crisis-cenral-bank-idUSL8N14X33220160113

http://russia-insider.com/en/business/2015-russia-capital-outflow-far-smaller-mainly-debt-repayment/ri12527

Austin wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

Austin wrote:Kremlin Transcript quotes trade surplus at 145 billion Roubles and not $145 billion as quoted by news site

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51211

Vladimir Putin: We have a positive trade balance. Taking into account the drop in prices for our main export goods, including raw materials, what caused this positive trade balance?

Alexei Ulyukayev: We have a positive trade balance and balance for current operations.This is what is most important. In 2015, we had a trade surplus of about 145 billion rubles. This is slightly less than we had before. First and foremost, this is due to the drop in our export prices. Physical volumes have not declined, and the fourfold oil market drop, as well as the drop in the markets for gas and ferrous and non-ferrous metals, have led to a serious decrease in the price of exported goods. But the cost of imports has also declined.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade

Russia posted a USD 9.1 billion trade surplus in November of 2015, down from a USD 13.7 billion surplus a year earlier, as exports shrank 30.5 percent and imports 28.9 percent. It is the lowest trade surplus since August.

Year-on-year, exports shrank 30.5 percent to USD 25.5 billion while imports decreased 28.9 percent to USD 16.4 billion, central bank data showed.

That would mean that trade surplus for Russia was $19.1B overall in 2015.  I think there is a major translation issue going on here.

also:


http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/trade_balance_dollars/


If you read the trading economics link, it also states that balance of trade in million USD would amount to $129B with those numbers.

Are we talking about Exports or Current Account Surplus  which is total export - total imports ?

Thanks , BTW I checked your Blog and its wonderful , Thank You for your effort.

Thanks man. I appreciate that. I was also hoping you would be able to contribute to it. I am trying to get others involved besides just George and myself, like you and KVS.

For what it is worth, it might be interesting to make a comparative between 2015 levels of external trade and pre-2000 era. Average exports of goods in 1994-1999 were USD79.4 billion and 2015 levels were 4.3 times higher. Average imports of goods in 1994-1999 were USD58.45 billion and these rose 3.3 times in 2015 figures. As the result, average 1994-1999 trade balance was USD20.95 billion. 2015 trade balance was 7 times larger than that.

Not too shabby numbers, event though 2015 was a tough year of trade for Russian exporters.

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.hr/2016/01/30116-russian-trade-balance-in-goods.html?spref=tw

sepheronx wrote:Too bad for them.  I bank in CAD since I live in Canada.  I never bothered to grab loans in USD or Euro.  So the CAD dropped in value heavily and I still owe same amount on my house.

But it seems Russian gov is gonna bail them out anyway.  I guess they have a softer heart than most in the west.  Hope people do not try to take advantage of this.

Edit:

Just some recent economic data

Anyone selling loans in foreign currency to regular individuals should be shoot.

It's was great fad in Eastern Europe.
There are maybe a million people that have taken some, be they in € in Switz Francs or in USD and all are essentially destitute and/or on personal bankruptcy/gov assistance of some kind today.

Bidoul wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Too bad for them.  I bank in CAD since I live in Canada.  I never bothered to grab loans in USD or Euro.  So the CAD dropped in value heavily and I still owe same amount on my house.

But it seems Russian gov is gonna bail them out anyway.  I guess they have a softer heart than most in the west.  Hope people do not try to take advantage of this.

Edit:

Just some recent economic data

Anyone selling loans in foreign currency to regular individuals should be shoot.

It's was great fad in Eastern Europe.
There are maybe a million people that have taken some, be they in € in Switz Francs or in USD and all are essentially destitute and/or on personal bankruptcy/gov assistance of some kind today.

The question is, what is Poland's government doing? Are they going to bail out all those people who purchased homes in Swiss Francs?

I agree, imprison the bankers who did this.

sepheronx wrote:Thanks man.  I appreciate that.  I was also hoping you would be able to contribute to it.  I am trying to get others involved besides just George and myself, like you and KVS.

I would like to but past few month have been busy and I am anticipating that for couple of months , Even the promised S-500 write up is in deep freeze , But hope to post here and possibily you can use some data from here. Thanks

Austin wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Thanks man.  I appreciate that.  I was also hoping you would be able to contribute to it.  I am trying to get others involved besides just George and myself, like you and KVS.

I would like to but past few month have been busy and I am anticipating that for couple of months , Even the promised S-500 write up is in deep freeze , But hope to post here and possibily you can use some data from here. Thanks

Now what could be more important than us?

Alright man. Whenever you want to, just ask and I can set you up a profile to do so.

John Exter Inverse Expansion Pyramid

too bad for those people. but they risked with lower interest rates and went speculative.
if foreign currency was lower then before they would be gloating how smart they are.
state didnt force them to take any credits!!
so they must suffer and learn hard way. you can cancel credit and return to the bank the house anyway.

Rmf wrote:too bad for those people. but they risked with lower interest rates and went speculative.
if foreign currency was lower then before they would be gloating how smart they are.
state didnt force them to take any credits!!
so they must suffer and learn hard way. you can cancel credit and return to the bank the house anyway.

At the expense of destroying your credit score, making getting a new mortgage in the future very difficult.  But you are correct, they played speculator and they got burned. But none of that matters now cause gov is gonna play good guy and help these morons out.  Instead of letting them get a real taste of democracy and freedom.

@ Garryb
Lol, yeah, you are right.  It will eventually come back to haunt them.

They said same thing about Kudrin.  That turned out to be BS.

Both these people are useful idiots to Western MSM but as long as Russian Intel can use them it is good

Read this interview in full ,Deputy finance minister Maxim Oreshkin says US Market may collapse due to slow growth and predicts a hard landing for China also many thing on Russian Economy

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2896207

If this happens it is an interesting precedent. It could be applied more widely.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The owners of assets set to be privatized in Russia must be under Russian jurisdiction, President Vladimir Putin said Monday. "The new owners of privatized assets must be under Russian jurisdiction. Semi-legal schemes, transfer of assets to offshore, concealing share owners is unacceptable," Putin said at a meeting on privatization.

Last week, Russia's Deputy Minister of Economic Development Oleg Fomichev stated that the country's government had drafted an anti-crisis plan that includes "major privatization." First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov stated earlier that Russian authorities are considering an ambitious privatization plan for 2016.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160201/1034041992/privatization-putin-statement.html#ixzz3yw7XxFRW

Excellent import substitution news:

Up to 26 billion. Dollars was food imports in 2015. This is a decline from 40 billion. Dollars in 2014.

Reduced import dependence Russia

Tatarstan has mastered the production of more than 2,000 items of spare parts for imported agricultural machinery

magnumcromagnon wrote:Excellent import substitution news:

Up to 26 billion. Dollars was food imports in 2015. This is a decline from 40 billion. Dollars in 2014.

Reduced import dependence Russia

Tatarstan has mastered the production of more than 2,000 items of spare parts for imported agricultural machinery

Western MSM/The Daily Beast:

"Putin's regime doesn't have the money to feed its own population: Russi... Putin's food imports have dropped dramatically - famine imminent"

Inflation dropped by 3%. In my point of view one of main problems in Russia is the low level of saving and with the western financial sanctions the Russian corporations have to deleverege their debt positions in dollars. They already partially did during 2015. It was achived a great result (it was pay back over 170 billion dollars) but the corporate extetnal debt is still quite hight and for paying it it is necessary more saving and high interest rate. In the second half of 2016 the situation will be stabilised and the interest rate will be down by 3-4%.

Russia’s 2015 GDP dropped 3.7% — Federal Statistics Service

http://tass.ru/en/economy/854032

MOSCOW, February 2. /TASS/. The decline of Russia's GDP in 2015 amounted to 3.7%, the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) said Tuesday, thus confirming its preliminary forecast. The GDP in 2015 at current prices amounted to 80.41 trillion rubles ($1.01 trillion).

According to Rosstat, the largest increase at the end of last year was recorded in agriculture (3.5% yoy), the activities of households (1.4%), mining (1.1%), as well as the field Health and Human Services. services (+ 0.3%). The largest drop was noted in the segment of wholesale and retail trade (-10.1%), construction (-7.5%), manufacturing (-5.5%), hotels and restaurants (-5.2%).

The share of final consumption expenditure in the Russia’s GDP at the end of 2015 was 71.6%, which is 0.6 percentage points less than in 2014 (72.2%). This was due to a decrease in the share of household expenditure by 0.6 percentage points - to 52.6% in GDP. In turn, the share of net export in GDP increased by 1.4 percentage points up to 8%. In monetary terms, household expenditures totaled 43.3 trillion rubles ($548.12 bln) against 41.43 trillion rubles ($524.4 bln) last year, state administration - 15.48 trillion ($196.04 bln) against 14.61 trillion rubles ($185.02 bln). Earlier, Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev estimated decline of Russia's GDP at 3.9%.

More:
http://tass.ru/en/economy/854032