What is Russia's proposal to do Donald Trump, who profits blokcheyn how to replace speculative investments for long-term and why Moscow has no confidence in the Beijing - Advisor to the President of Russia and Academician Sergei Glazyev in an interview with "Gazeta.ru" sums up the SPIEF-2017.
- What is "hooked" in Vladimir Putin's speech at the forum?
- The President emphasized the digital economy, which covers more sectors and activities. At one time, working chairman of the State Duma Economic Policy Committee, I have initiated the adoption of several laws necessary for the development of e-commerce.
Since then, millions of people are already using the Internet to purchase goods. And the business, and the government carry out operations in an electronic form and electronic auctions, and auctions have become the main form of public procurement.
Today's agenda to create the legal conditions for use in transactions - blokcheyn - a technology that will make economic use transparent, ensure trust between the partners, which is so lacking in our business and the state.
Why is it so important and that "touches"? And because digital technologies are revolutionizing our daily lives and telemedicine, distance education, "smart" homes and even city - this is an incomplete list of the new opportunities offered to every citizen and equalizing conditions for obtaining high-quality services and the disclosure of its features.
- Equal opportunities - it's good, good dream. But authorities propose to live according to a different formula: no money, but you stay there, be patient.
- This phrase premiere shows a misunderstanding of the nature of money. Our monetary authorities do not understand that modern money is created under the debt in order to finance the expanded reproduction of the economy.
The main objective of monetary policy in all successful developing countries is to create conditions in order to maximize investment and innovation. At low savings and incomes of the population, underdevelopment of financial market issue is used to finance investment target.
This policy has been used successfully in the second half of the XIX century: Hamilton in the United States, Witte in Russia, the State Bank of the USSR in postwar Japan and Western Europe, today's China, India, Indochina countries. All countries have committed economic miracle, using large-scale monetization of credit investments.
Currently, in order to overcome a structural crisis and revive the economy wide emission of money used US Fed and the ECB. Its main channel is to finance the state budget deficit in order to ensure the necessary research and development spending, modernization of infrastructure, promotion of investment in the development of new technological order. China, India, Indochina countries as earlier post-war Europe and Japan, emit the money under the investment plans of economic agents in accordance with the centrally set priorities.
- But opponents of such practices scare a rise in prices, the inflation jump, if you include the printing press.
- Target emission of money for lending to investment in these countries does not lead to inflation, as its result is to increase the efficiency of production and expansion of production volumes of goods, thereby reducing costs, increasing supply of goods and increased the purchasing power of money.
With the growth of the volume and to improve production efficiency are increased incomes and savings of the population and the private sector, thus expanding private sources of financing investment, and the importance of the issue of money is reduced.
But as soon as a private investment activity is declining, the state compensates for its increase in public investment, including at the expense of monetary financing of budget deficits and the development of institutions. This is what we see today in the policy of quantitative easing in the US, EU and Japan, and the growth of state investments in China and India.
As the economy monetization growth of inflationary background will decrease.
In Russia, inflation background is relatively high due to the lack of development of competition, regulators corruption, technological backwardness and low efficiency, generating cost inflation and devaluation of the ruble.
A key reason for the constant decline in the purchasing power of the ruble is a monetary policy pursued by: higher interest rates, or passed on to prices, or involve the reduction of crediting of production, resulting in rising prices and reduced supply of goods.
The ongoing policy of inflation targeting is based on the primitive notion of money as a commodity whose price is determined by the balance of supply and demand.
Following this logic, the Central Bank is trying to reduce inflation and increase the cost (purchasing power) of money by reducing the supply. This automatically results in a credit contraction, falling investment and innovation activity, thereby reducing the technical level and competitiveness of the national economy, which causes devaluation of the currency and a new wave of inflation.
This vicious circle of monetary policy, we pass into the next, for the fourth time with a consistent primitivization and increasing technological backwardness of the economy.
- The purpose of SPIEF - show Western politicians, investors and regulators Russia's ability to invest. But the foreign policy agenda of economic forum has dissolved. And there is no doubt that foreign investors after the forum will invest actively.
- If we want to attract foreign investment, the government first needs to invest itself. Then private investors as their own and foreign, believe in seriousness of purpose, and invest their money. Is this not the experience of India and China, the experience of post-war reconstruction of Europe and Japan, as, indeed, and our own recent experience.
- This is an allusion to that?
- I remember the St. Petersburg Economic Forum sample of 2007.
Then on the eve of the global financial crisis, our leaders are trying to lure foreign investors to the image of Russia as a financial haven, protected from external storms. In practice, we got the flight of capital instead of investment, and the Russian economy has slipped more than others.
- The image of Russia - secure financial harbor seems to have used Alexei Kudrin, the then Minister of Finance. He did not stay afloat, but actively critical of your ideas to ease monetary policy.
- Let them continue to criticize, but investors see well all the flaws of the system of regulation of the Russian economy, which makes it dependent on external market fluctuations.
If the record of the ruble volatility unmanageable monetary and financial flows, the bank stopped the transmission mechanism of transformation of savings into investment, the State's failure to fulfill its own plans no investments other than speculative, we can not wait.
Except, of course, political investment, which will be organized by the President personally.
- Speaking of criticism from Kudrin, now the head of the Center for Strategic Research and curator of socio-economic development of the country until 2035. He called the five dangerous, in his view, the economic fallacies. On one of the attacks you actually are now answered. About the "quantitative easing". Kudrin believes that the domestic version of this policy will accelerate inflation and increase the pressure on the ruble as a result of "spilling" of extra money on the currency market ?
- I would supplement my answer ... Of course, the money will be on the market, but they will at the same time through increased production.
- According to Kudrin, and the myth is this idea that economic growth can be accelerated by employing existing in the country of significant spare capacity and using again easing of monetary policy. Your opponent says that while there is a real threat to the formation of entire clusters, which are at negative margins will lobby for cheap loans from the Central Bank. Ie financing of inefficient industries will be at the expense of all other encumbrances inflation tax ?
- Firstly, I note that the spare capacity in Russia, about 40%. Secondly, the sharp rise in interest rates to 17% and the credit crunch from the state-owned banks in 2014 caused the collapse of the large investment programs even in industries with high profitability.
Many businesses have gone bankrupt. And the banking system at the same time has become a mechanism for pumping money from the real economy.
- Let us return to the Investment Forum in St. Petersburg. Almost half of the time at the plenary session of the forum was dedicated to the United States, not least, by the way, thanks to the diligence of the moderator and the leading American TV channel NBC Megyn Kelly. You can walk to the impeachment of President Trump?
- Do not doubt the victory Trump after identify candidates from the major parties. This was told to me well-known pattern of electoral behavior of the citizens who are unhappy with the status quo and want to change it. But I doubt whether he will be able to legalize the victory.
But, oddly enough, in the United States democracy is still working and the electoral law is observed. This means that it is possible and impeachment.
The American ruling elite is painfully aware of the loss of global hegemony. It seeks to preserve the dominance of the military and political means, losing competition in the economy of China and other countries in South-East Asia, shaping the new global economic order.
Trump continues to go down the path of hybrid war, taking the decision to increase military spending and modernization of nuclear forces. The US continues its occupation of Ukraine in order to use its people as cannon fodder, to unleash a war against Russia in Europe.
But the US has little political choice. If Washington continues hybrid world war, it will trigger the formation of a powerful anti-war coalition, which hit the US financial power by de-dollarization of the Eurasian Economic Space.
This will cause the collapse of the US financial system, with catastrophic economic consequences. If, however, the US government will return to the mainstream of international law and recognizes the realities of a multipolar world, agree with our principles of international cooperation, the Trump would have to give up the increase in military spending, from the occupation of the Ukraine, the global electronic spying and stop global hybrid war.
And in fact, and in another case, very likely impeachment incumbent president - it is necessary to find a scapegoat.
- Igor Dodon said at the forum, trying to convince that Moldova will be able to sit on two chairs: pro-European and Russian. We do not get a second Ukraine?
- Fortunately, Moldova now leads a strong-willed person and devoted to the interests of the people. I know Dodon many years. It is characterized by the consistent position of serving the interests of Moldova, which objectively are inextricably linked with Russia. And he convincingly demonstrated at the forum that imposed Western puppets and corrupt Association of Moldova with the EU turned to the once prosperous republic in the USSR economic disaster.
I am confident that the Moldovan people for the most part support the line of the president to return to one with Russia and EAEC economic space.
Although Objectively speaking, to implement this line of Dodona is much more complicated than might be the same for Ukraine to make Viktor Yanukovych, who had much more power and support of the majority of the working population, it is inextricably linked the results of their work and family ties with Russia.
- Why is it so slowly is turning Russia to the East? Are we not deceiving ourselves when we think that China will be friends with us economically, to their detriment?
- In order to achieve successful cooperation with China, it is necessary to understand the secret of its economic miracle and to use these mechanisms. The core of the entire Chinese economy regulatory framework is to encourage investment and innovation.
A key role in this is played by the public sector, which is based on the state banking system, which generates credit under the indicative plans for increased investment and production. This is the aim of transport and energy infrastructure, the development of which is given priority in the government's plans. As well as state-owned corporation, concentrating resources for the development and introduction of advanced technologies.
Public investments are the engine of development of the Chinese economy. Following their growth and rising private investments, using risk reduction and public infrastructure.
There are no fundamental problems in the application of proven methods in China and economic management in Russia.
- Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi made it clear at the forum that he is a great liberal and India are friendly with Russia over inertia. What do you think, if possible at the political level the conflict of interests between Russia and India, is increasingly focused on its former mother country?
- With India we objectively have a good complementary economies, the combination of competitive advantages that can count on a significant economic impact.
- Upcoming presidential elections - it's an incentive to implement the new socio-economic strategy (which prepares the Kremlin), or rather an obstacle? How much is now an opportune time to develop a strategy paper?
- Election of the President - it is always a summing up and the waiting time changes for the better. The Company is not satisfied with the situation in the economy, which is heavily dissonant with our foreign policy success.
The president really need a realistic scientifically based program of economic growth. And such a program. It is presented together "Stolypin club", the Chamber of Commerce, Academy of Sciences, Moscow Economic Forum. Our program allows the calculation of the withdrawal of the Russian economy on the path of sustainable growth with a rate of 5-10% GDP growth per year.
In the modern world it is impossible to combine global leadership underdevelopment.
The more impossible to achieve global success in declining living standards. The era of modernization at the expense of the living standards of the people is no longer possible, it is a thing of the past.
After the catastrophic consequences of shock therapy, which is imposed under the slogan "we have to be patient, to go through radical reforms to build a high-performance economy and improving living standards in America and Europe," the people in such a miracle once again going to believe this is not a ride.
People see the helplessness of the authorities in the organization of economic growth accompanied by the luxurious lifestyle of the ruling elite, the export of capital abroad, record revenues of monopolists.
Russians do not want to be victims of the economic experiments of the Central Bank, leading to the loss of their savings in the banks obankrochennyh, depreciation of ruble earnings and savings due to the ruble exchange rate fluctuations, as well as the loss of employment due to lack of credit for normal reproduction. And this is happening against the backdrop of the overwhelming success of neighboring China, which has already cost us on wages, while not having the oil and gas and other natural resources.
People understand that the reason for our plight in the economy is in its inefficient management, and suspects that it works not in his interest.
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