Russian Economy General News: #13

sepheronx wrote:Turkish lira is a collapsing currency with mass inflation growing in Turkey. Mixed in with Turkey being a very unreliable country with a heavy mix of Islamic extremism thats growing, I wouldn't touch that with a 10 ft pole.

If countries get proof that Russia and China, plus their allies, can mitigate the vulnerability of their currencies to the Western blackmail and allow them to scape from their grip, it would be a massive boost for an alternative world economy and financial system, maybe the critical one that is missing to bury the dollar scam for once.

Turkey also agreed to pay in rubles. So it's a mutual measure that strengthens demand for both currencies.

China and India are naturally key countries for similar agreements. Also ones such as Iran, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Indonesia and so on. Anyone who's ready to expand business and trade with Russia, both imports and exports.

Russia loses nothing from engaging with Turkey. It gains by disrupting NATzO. In this case the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Turkey is a neighbour and controls Russian access to the Med... improving ties with them and essentially helping to stabilise their currency would go a long way to get the sort of good will that is going to be needed to sort out the Syria situation and with other problems too...

Turkey has a very interesting defence sector... in terms of products they produce I would put them on par with Serbia in terms of interesting stuff they make... except their problem isn't lack of a market, their problem is many parts and components in their systems come from other countries likely to put them under sanction.

I think there is enormous potential for joint ventures between Russia and Turkey...

I don't get why these excess revenues can't be reinvested into the Russian economy, who is supposed to benefit from this? I swear Russia's Central Bank is either governed by idiots, traitors or both.

It is not the purpose of these revenues to boost the Russian economy... other funds should be used for that purpose...

These funds are excess funds that are skimmed off for more difficult time ahead... the profit made will be divided into separate parts including maintenance and upkeep of resources, but also as a reserve fund for when things are not going so well... and they might be used to support investment in finding new energy resources, or a range of other purposes...

The $300B they allowed the West to steal could've been used to develop vast infrastructure projects in Eastern Russia, domestic semiconductor fabrication, highspeed Maglev railways from Vladivostok to Crimea, civil aviation, rebuilt the entire Naval fleet and still have enough leftover to invest in 1000's of entrepreneurial projects and offer low interest loans to small/medium businesses.

They have not stolen anything and if they decide they are going to keep it and not return it then Russia can pick and choose from several times more than that figure of western assets and resources in Russia they can seize in compensation... if the west wants to play that game... which means those losing assets will sue western governments to get their money back and the 300 billion might not cover it.

GarryB wrote:
It is not the purpose of these revenues to boost the Russian economy... other funds should be used for that purpose...

These funds are excess funds that are skimmed off for more difficult time ahead... the profit made will be divided into separate parts including maintenance and upkeep of resources, but also as a reserve fund for when things are not going so well... and they might be used to support investment in finding new energy resources, or a range of other purposes...

Only part which states that these funds are used to cover for budget shortfall is true. Also, they introduced mechanism where part of the funds can be used for priority infrastructure projects.
In general, Russian government, so far, continues to follow closely, neoliberal policies that Kudrin preached.
Russia doesn't invest enough in formation of fixed assets and it doesn't look like this will meaningfully change in years to come. As usual, i want to be proven wrong with this in the future. Obviously, I'm discounting this year as it is not a normal year. In recent past, last 4-5 years investments in fixed capital assets improved but they were still lower than they should be for the country.
There are several reasons for it and one of the main ones is fear of misappropriation of government funds.
Before anyone here jumps at me, i suggest more reading into reports on national projects 2030 implementation.

Small and medium-sized businesses will be able to receive preferential loans at 3-4.5%

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a resolution , according to which small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will be able to take soft loans for the restructuring and development of production at 4.5% and 3% per annum, respectively. The benefit program is valid for three years. You can take out a loan for ten years.

As a priority, loans will be available to SMEs in the field of agricultural processing, logistics and hotel business. The money received at a preferential rate can be spent on the purchase of equipment, the overhaul of production facilities or the launch of new industries. The government expects that by the end of the year the volume of loans issued will reach about 50 billion rubles.

The launch of the preferential program was announced in early August by the head of the Ministry of Economy Maxim Reshetnikov. He said that business needs investment loans "to restructure production processes and develop import substitution." Mr. Mishustin supported this initiative.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5514510

The Russian government does not own enough of the Russian economy to drive the "right" levels of capital investments.
It is nonsense to talk about corruption being the source of this deficit. Typical liberast 5th column drivel.

The main reason for lack of capital investment in Russia is the CBR with its extortion level prime rate. When SMEs need
special programs to get loans at 4.5% you know something is seriously wrong. Nabiullina is praised for things she did nothing
to accomplish including Russia's lack of inflationary instability. Her extortion rate is actually driving inflationary pressure.
Business owners have routinely pointed out that borrowing costs are a very large item in their budgets which naturally forces
them to pass these costs to consumers.

Capital investment is not just big government projects. So the 20% figure trotted out since the 1990s as a goal for Russia is
something you saw in China. China clearly did not operate on the monetarist 5th column path like Russia. The 20+ investment
rate in China included SME activity and not simply government projects. This fact cannot be ignored in this discussion.

Weekly deflation in Russia accelerated to 0.13%, 08.17.2022.

Deflation in Russia for the period from 9 to 15 August accelerated to 0.13%, follows from the data of Rosstat. A week earlier, this figure was 0.08%.

As of August 15, inflation in annual terms, according to calculations using average daily data, amounted to 14.87%. Last week, the figure was 15.01%.

According to the Ministry of Economy, prices are falling due to cheaper food products. In this segment, fruit and vegetable products are depreciating the fastest.

The agency also notes a reduction in prices for tourism and regulated services. This is mainly due to the reduction in airfare.

On July 22, the chairman of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, said that analysts of the regulator did not see “any deflationary trend”. According to her, we are talking about price correction after a significant increase in February-March.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5514806

Del

[quote="caveat emptor"]

kvs wrote:The Russian government does not own enough of the Russian economy to drive the "right" levels of capital investments.
It is nonsense to talk about corruption being the source of this deficit.   Typical liberast 5th column drivel.

The main reason for lack of capital investment in Russia is the CBR with its extortion level prime rate.    When SMEs need
special programs to get loans at 4.5% you know something is seriously wrong.   Nabiullina is praised for things she did nothing
to accomplish including Russia's lack of inflationary instability.   Her extortion rate is actually driving inflationary pressure.  
Business owners have routinely pointed out that borrowing costs are a very large item in their budgets which naturally forces
them to pass these costs to consumers.  

Capital investment is not just big government projects.   So the 20% figure trotted out since the 1990s as a goal for Russia is
something you saw in China.   China clearly did not operate on the monetarist 5th column path like Russia.   The 20+ investment
rate in China included SME activity and not simply government projects.    This fact cannot be ignored in this discussion.    

I'm not sure what are you trying to say, but parts i understand, i can tell you that your reasoning is wrong. Example that i know best is Serbia. Government owns much less than what Russian government owns, but levels of capital creation are well above Russia's levels.
Reason for edit: missed few words

Russian banks should provide for stock market derivatives in order for account holders as well as private investors to have access to widen their portfolios and profit in the expanding Russian share market.
The present-day economic trend in Russia should be the opposite of the one observed in the West.

The Russian economy surprises: Bloomberg names the reasons for the growth of Russian indicators

The industrial sector of Russia recorded the smallest decline in key indicators in four months. This could be seen as an important sign that the economy is adjusting to the sweeping sanctions imposed by the US and its allies over the Kremlin's sting operation in Ukraine. This surprised Bloomberg experts very much.

Industrial production fell just 0.5% in July, less than the 2.3% expected by analysts in the Bloomberg poll and the best performance since the first months of the CBO. On a seasonally adjusted basis, output rose for the first time this year compared to the previous month, according to data released by the Federal Statistical Service.

Increases in mining and oil production, along with recovery in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and outerwear (benefited by the exodus of foreign competitors at the onset of the conflict), contributed to stronger-than-expected performance.

Even the automotive sector, which has almost come to a standstill in recent months as foreign-dominated companies pulled out of the market, has shown some tentative signs of stabilization and upside potential in the near future, but efforts by India and China to buy domestic raw materials are frustrating. .

Output fell only 58% in July compared to a 66% drop in May

- Bloomberg analytical agency writes in surprise.

Of course, the sanctions are quite painful, so business sentiment and expectations eased slightly in August amid problems with import supplies and labor. Pessimism lies in the poll of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation published on Wednesday. But there is also groundwork for optimism regarding the prospects. Many companies expect growth, mainly from the manufacturing, mining, energy industries.

Trying to justify their miscalculations, Western gurus of economic analysis set out to find the negative, finding it in the reduction of the key sector of the Russian economy - the oil and gas industry. He is predicted to decline by the end of this year due to the gradually introduced EU oil embargo.

https://topcor-ru.translate.goog/27656-rossijskaja-jekonomika-udivljaet-bloomberg-nazyvaet-prichiny-rosta-pokazatelej-rf.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Behind a paywall, so partially posted.

The stock market lives with positive expectations
The downtrend has finally broken up, by Mikhail Zeltser for Viedomosti. 08.30.2022.

The Russian stock market is showing signs of recovery. And there is an urgent question of choosing industries and stocks that can bring investors the greatest return on investment on the general rise of indices. A sensitivity assessment will help you make a decision.

Change of mood

Despite the ongoing geopolitical challenges and the complex sanctions background, the market, as a rule, lives with expectations. The debt market has long recovered, and OFZ prices have rewritten the maximum of the year, fully recovering from the deep spring failure. The ruble remains the strongest currency in the world, and there is no point in expecting a large-scale devaluation of the national currency.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/columns/2022/08/29/937976-fondovii-rinok-zhivet-ozhidaniyami

Most sectors will work themselves out. Aerospace and Automotive will be the biggest, hardest puzzle to solve for Russia.... that is, the areas where the West enjoys pretty much primacy between them and allied protectorates, Boeing/Airbus in aerospace.... Automotive: U.S/Germany/France/Italy/Japan/Korea - all Western block allies.

I guess China could help plug holes in automotive with their rising automotive industry and help fill some of the void there but on aerospace....good luck. China can help with spares and maintenance for air fleets but that's about it. It's not looking good for the next 5 years least but I assume it's reasonable to expect a deal on Ukraine in the not so distant future, at most another year, with a 1-2 yr hiatus for the re-entrance of western companies back on the market to assume their places. May be wrong. Depends on what type of "deal" on Ukraine is reached.

Aerospace and Automotive will be the biggest, hardest puzzle to solve for Russia.... that is, the areas where the West enjoys pretty much primacy between them and allied protectorates, Boeing/Airbus in aerospace.... Automotive: U.S/Germany/France/Italy/Japan/Korea - all Western block allies.

Totally disagree... Russia has the capacity to make its own aircraft across the board and investments and time and energy have already been put in to developing the bedrock of a good plane... new engines. They are world class at designing aircraft and soon their engines will be world class too.

Regarding automotive they have all the pieces they need to make good reliable safe cars... wouldn't take an American or German or French or Italian car if you gave it to me for free... such cars are expensive here would would cost to much to maintain and operate.

China is growing in the car market and Russia actually has every potential to be very good in that regard too... and now that western cars and airliners are out of the picture it is an enormous opportunity for Russian makers to step up and fill the gap in a way they will get a market share so even when western companies come crawling back they can't take over the market again like they did when Russian equivalents were suffering.

The US and EU seem to think they will be a party to any solution over the Ukraine... not only were they no use with the Minsk agreements, they were the opposite... they supported Kiev violating that agreement for 7 years and they built up and pushed Ukraine to war with Russia, so no, I would not include them in the final settling of the situation they pushed for.

What are they going to do about it... sanctions? Stop Russia from competing in world sports... who cares.

Problems in the automotive sector in Russia from the 1990s and into the 2000s are tied to corruption and organized crime. Chief maggot Berezovsky
set up an Avtovaz parts racket back in the heady days of the early 1990s privatization. It took until recently to sufficiently clean up this sector. I think
Chinese car companies in Russia selling their wares and setting up branch plants is a good thing. It forces Russian companies to compete instead of
grift. Cars are not a challenge from a technology perspective regardless of what consumers, who are dazzled with cupholders, think.

Deflation in Russia accelerated to 0.16% in a week, 08.31.2022.

During the week of August 23-29, deflation in Russia accelerated from 0.15% to 0.16%. According to preliminary estimates, in the first half of 2022, GDP decreased by 0.4% in annual terms, Rosstat said. Since the beginning of the year, consumer prices have risen by 10.38%.

As follows from the report of the Ministry of Economy ( .pdf ), in annual terms, inflation fell to 14.31% from 14.6%. This was due to a decrease in prices in the food sector, which became cheaper by 0.24% over the week. According to the Ministry of Economy, prices are falling in all sectors of the consumer market.

Real wages in June fell by 3.2% in annual terms against 6.1% in May and 7.2% in April, Rosstat said. The unemployment rate in July remained at a record low of 3.9%, which was reached in May. According to analysts' preliminary estimates, GDP fell by 0.4% in the first half of the year. Earlier, Rosstat reported that in the first quarter, GDP growth amounted to 3.5%, in the second quarter the figure fell by 4%.

According to Rosstat, prices for consumer products increased by 10.38%, while since the beginning of August the figure has decreased by 0.54%.

According to Rosstat, prices for fruits and vegetables fell by an average of 3.6%. Tomatoes fell by 6.8%, onions - by 6.5%, carrots - by 5.8%, potatoes - by 5.1%. The cost of bananas decreased by 1%, apples - by 1.8%.

During the week, buckwheat fell in price by 0.5%, frozen fish, wheat flour and millet - by 0.4%, chicken meat and vermicelli - by 0.3%.

Bulky and boiled-smoked sausages and chicken eggs became more expensive by 0.5%, mutton, sunflower oil, granulated sugar and cookies increased by 0.3%, butter, chocolates, cottage cheese, black tea increased by 0.2%. and vodka.

Of the essential goods, matches rose in price by 1.2%, cleaning powders and toothbrushes - by 0.4%, toothpastes and toilet paper - by 0.3%. In the group of medicines, prices for metamizole sodium (domestic analgin) (+0.8%), rengalin (+0.6%), corvalol (+0.5%) increased the most.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5537275

Article behind a paywall, so partially posted:

What to expect on the Russian stock market in September, by Inga Sangalova for Viedomosti. 09.01.2022.

Deposits with high rates will be closed, and 300 billion rubles of liquidity may flow into the market.

September is considered one of the worst months of the year for global stock markets - returning from holidays, investors begin to close losing positions, and this puts pressure on the stock. But the Russian stock market can bypass this fate and the upward trend of the Moscow Exchange index, which has grown by 10% since the beginning of August, will continue, say analysts polled by Vedomosti.

On February 24, with the start of the special operation, the Moscow Exchange index fell by 33.3% to 2058.12 points. Since then, the benchmark for Russian stocks has tested the bottom twice - the last time on August 5, it reached 2054.29 and began to move up. For three weeks following the results of trading on August 26, the Moscow exchange index and its dollar counterpart RTS rose by 10.4%.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/investments/articles/2022/08/29/937977-chego-zhdat-na-rossiiskom-fondovom-rinke

Article behind a paywall so partially posted. Btw having trouble buying a yearly subscription to this Russian outlet with my self-conceited "international" VISA card.

The ruble in August rose in price against the dollar, euro and yuan, by Inga Sangalova for Viedomosti. 09.02.2022.

The market is waiting for the weakening of the national currency in autumn.

In August, the ruble strengthened against the dollar by 2.3% to 60.23 rubles/$, against the euro - by 3.2% to 60.45 rubles/euro, Vedomosti calculated based on data from the Moscow Exchange. During the month, the ruble remained stable and traded against the American currency in the range of 59.1–61.7 rubles/$, and against the euro – 59.4–62.7 rubles. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has appreciated by 19.1% against the dollar and by 28.2% against the euro.

The average daily volume of dollar trading in August amounted to 93.62 billion rubles, euro - 60.83 billion rubles. Compared to last year, trading in the dollar fell by 37.6% (150 billion rubles), while in euros, against the backdrop of a new gas payment model, more than doubled to 28.55 billion rubles.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/investments/articles/2022/09/02/938816-rubl-v-avguste-podorozhal

Perhaps you need to back your Visa up with some Peace (Mir)

GarryB wrote:Perhaps you need to back your Visa up with some Peace (Mir)  

There's no way of backing my "International" VISA credit card or getting a fully MIR payment card in Brazil.

Being the B in BRICS I would think Brazil should be open to Russian and Chinese and Indian and South African payment systems...

Monopolies are bad for this very reason...

GarryB wrote:Being the B in BRICS I would think Brazil should be open to Russian and Chinese and Indian and South African payment systems...

Monopolies are bad for this very reason...

Yes. Fully agree.

There is still Chinese UnionPay card I guess.

BRICS needs to develop its own financial muscle.