Russian Economy General News: #8

"Gazprom set to supply record gas levels to Europe."

Am I right in thinking that Russia is not giving this gas for free to Europe? And Am I right in saying that this will help Russia?

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/12/31/547362/Gazprom-set-to-supply-record-gas-levels-to-Europe

kvs wrote:

NATO smartasses think that LNG will give them a net lower price due to spot pricing rackets.   Russia needs to quickly move
to LNG instead of pipeline exports.    Since there is a bottleneck of LNG ships and ports, there will be a price surge that will
properly fill Russia's coffers and stop the charity madness.

The most expensive part of the LNG chain is the liquefaction train.

And actually it makes economical sense to transfer LNG by pipeline, it decrease dramatically the cost.

Austin wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
1) This is actually happening now

>> No it is not , Show me any official statement where Russia has banned hardware/SW from West/US and allowed only use of domestic hardware SW

2)  Are there better options for liquidity yet? 

>>  Euro T Bills [ Russia got far better leverage against Europe than US ] , Gold , Yuan , SDR

Keeping US T Bills not exceeding 10 % of Russian Forex is safer bet.

>>>3) And which jets then buy? Waiting 15 years untill placed by Russian ones not to mention that ~ half of titanium used in Boeing is made in Russia. 

Buy Russian ones Tu-204SM , IL-96M , MS-21 , Superjet

Impose Tarrif barriers on Western Aircraft , Use Titanium sold to Boeing on Russian Aircraft.

The government intentionally makes few Russian aircraft just to make sure the numbers keep the people employed and paves the way for imports.

Hmm and you understand that such changes mean stopping for many years both air communication within Russia, inability of Russia to sell airplanes abroad. And makes it also unreliable partner for other nations? And thousands of people fired and enterprises closed it probably no the best way to ger Russians richer. 


Why government is intentionally lowering output of planes? could you explin please?


As for liquidity: world after IIWW is built around dollar not euro. Any other currency so far is only niche one. Russia has virtually no leverage on EU is it collides with US interests. Yuan? something is improving but till recently was pegged to USD

Gold is all the time being bought

kvs wrote:

par far wrote:"Gazprom set to supply record gas levels to Europe."

Am I right in thinking that Russia is not giving this gas for free to Europe? And Am I right in saying that this will help Russia?

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/12/31/547362/Gazprom-set-to-supply-record-gas-levels-to-Europe

You would be partly right.   Russian natural gas prices are very low considering the premium quality aspects of CH4 as a fuel.
It releases less CO2 when burned compared to oil and CH4 is a feedstock to the chemical and fertilizer industry.    Russia
for some stupid reason tied the price of CH4 to the price of oil when it has no such correlation to begin with (i.e. people do
not drive cars using CH4 and flip back and forth between oil and gas when heating their homes).  

NATO smartasses think that LNG will give them a net lower price due to spot pricing rackets.   Russia needs to quickly move
to LNG instead of pipeline exports.    Since there is a bottleneck of LNG ships and ports, there will be a price surge that will
properly fill Russia's coffers and stop the charity madness.

Thanks for the reply kvs, do you think that Russia will switch to LNG? And if yes, when? I thought it was smart to ggo the LNG way and thought Russia was already doing that.

kvs wrote:
Russia is building huge distribution facilities in spite of sanctions:

[....]

But the reliance on pipelines is going to continue for years to come.   I think the EU needs to be punished for its theatrics regarding
Nord Stream II.    But Putin is too much of a diplomat to do this.  

It is not about punishing anybody for anything. But to make best deals for Russia in current situation withso called "partners". Punishing EU you'd punish Russians first.  



Turkey plans to issue bonds in rubles and RMB in 2018

ANKARA, 2 January. / TASS /. Turkey intends to issue bonds in rubles and yuans in 2018. This was stated on Tuesday by Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Shimshak in an interview with the newspaper Habertürk .
"We are now aiming at new countries with serious stock holdings.We first held road shows in Russia.We studied the ruble bond market, the first reaction is positive, in 2018 we will try to offer our bonds," he said.
In addition, according to Shimshek, Turkey is going to "issue bonds in RMB".

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4855241





Sakhalin Energy increased LNG exports in 2017 to 15.5 billion cubic meters 

According to the Minister of Energy, Russia can increase its share in the LNG market to 15-20% by 2035
MOSCOW, January 2. / TASS /. The export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region in 2017 increased by 5.3% to 15.48 billion cubic meters. m. This is stated in the report of the Central Dispatch Office (CDU) of the fuel and energy complex.
In December, LNG exports to the APR countries amounted to 1.47 billion cubic meters. m (-0.2%).
Sakhalin Energy is the operator of the Sakhalin-2 project, Russia's first LNG project. Prior to the launch, Yamal LNG was the only LNG plant in Russia in December 2017. The shareholders of Sakhalin Energy are Gazprom Sakhalin Holdings BV (50% plus one share), Shell Sakhalin Holdings BV (27.5% minus one share), Mitsui Sakhalin Holdings BV (12.5%), Diamond Gas Sakhalin BV (10%). The Sakhalin-2 project provides for the phased development of the Piltun-Astokhskoye oil and Lunskoye gas fields, located 13-16 km from the northeastern coast of Sakhalin Island.
According to the Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, Russia can increase its share in the LNG market from the current 4% to 15-20% by 2035.
According to the minister, the main resource base of LNG is mainly in the north: the Yamal Peninsula, the Gydan Peninsula, where the reserves exceed 38 trillion cubic meters. m of gas. Novak also stressed that there is an instruction by the Russian president, according to which deliveries from LNG projects will not occur at the expense of pipeline gas supplies.

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4855333

kvs wrote:Bending over and taking it from the EU is not a viable policy either.   So far Russia has been engaged in 24/7/365
appeasement.   Time to stop this.

BTW, it is NATO that is always trying to punish Russia across a whole spectrum of things.   Retaliation is a valid
game theory move.   Tit for tat is the only gaming strategy that guarantees that your enemy cannot win.  

True, they haven't banged their shoe on the table and threatened to bury them like Khrushcev did in his time...but I think the softly approach is working fine....I hear even the Lithuanians are starting to wake up and shuly whisper that they should establish better relations with Russia and have even stopped opposing Nordstream-2....I wonder why?...maybe they haven't been appeased enough ?

kvs wrote:That's a sad metric for Russia's success.    Why should Russia give a flying f*ck what the Baltic chihuahuas think or claim to think?
Lithuania is not the real Nordstream II opposition.   It is Uncle Scumbag's sock puppet.    Watch as it flips its whispering tone when
Uncle Scumbag snaps his fingers.

It means that cutting off your nose to spite your face will only get you so far. Eventually you have to face reality.

As far as Nordstream goes, it means the Baltics have sided with Germany not Uncle Sam...which is pretty significant.

Speaking of "sad" idiots waking up to the inevitable

France Looks to Deepen Trade Ties With Russia and China
After Brexit vote and Trump’s rise, France aims to build a trade ‘backbone’ that runs from Europe to Beijing via Moscow

France is aiming to build a trade “backbone” that runs from Europe to Beijing via Moscow, as it looks to China and Russia to act as a counterweight to increasingly uncertain trade relations with the U.S. and Britain.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/france-looks-to-deepen-trade-ties-with-russia-and-china-1514808000

CBR's Gold depository



more here
https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/102506/

kvs wrote:Bending over and taking it from the EU is not a viable policy either.   So far Russia has been engaged in 24/7/365
appeasement.   Time to stop this.

BTW, it is NATO that is always trying to punish Russia across a whole spectrum of things.   Retaliation is a valid
game theory move.   Tit for tat is the only gaming strategy that guarantees that your enemy cannot win.  

retaliation or if you prefer tit 4 tat brings poor results for both players. If you speak about theory. So for your ambitions and emotions you'd let millions of Russians suffer?!

cyberspec wrote:
It means that cutting off your nose to spite your face will only get you so far. Eventually you have to face reality.
As far as Nordstream goes, it means the Baltics have sided with Germany not Uncle Sam...which is pretty significant.
Speaking of "sad" idiots waking up to the inevitable

 
Neither Germans not French are idiots. Both are vassals of US and first mind own interests. The case of Nord Stream an darticle below  is a nice example where US slow but surely downfall is visible...

France Looks to Deepen Trade Ties With Russia and China
After Brexit vote and Trump’s rise, France aims to build a trade ‘backbone’ that runs from Europe to Beijing via Moscow

France is aiming to build a trade “backbone” that runs from Europe to Beijing via Moscow, as it looks to China and Russia to act as a counterweight to increasingly uncertain trade relations with the U.S. and Britain. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/france-looks-to-deepen-trade-ties-with-russia-and-china-1514808000

retaliation or if you prefer tit 4 tat brings poor results for both players. If you speak about theory. So for your ambitions and emotions you'd let millions of Russians suffer?!

Friends get a good price, but also good reliable customers get a good price to keep them happy.

The EU is not really being a good customer and is forcing Russia to develop unnecessary alternative routes for energy to Europe to bypass trouble makers like the Ukraine.

Personally I can see them getting to a point where they don't want to deal with the EU any more and will just send supplies to Turkey or Germany and let them on sell the energy at whatever price they want... solves lots of problems for Russia and gives power to Turkey and Germany.

Personally I think shipping energy is an easier solution as there is less infrastructure on foreign territory that could be seized at any time and nationalised.

A fleet of tankers could deliver all sorts of things including clean water to the pacific islands and middle east... in fact a small nuclear power plant and they could produce clean fresh water from sea water and not have to carry it very far at all. A desalination ship could be very useful... you could deliver electricity and fresh water to small countries that could use both.


In the Far North of Russia it could also deliver heat in the form of a byproduct too.

The EU has to learn that Russia is not an enemy but it can be if it keeps treating it like one.

GarryB wrote:

retaliation or if you prefer tit 4 tat brings poor results for both players. If you speak about theory. So for your ambitions and emotions you'd let millions of Russians suffer?!

Friends get a good price, but also good reliable customers get a good price to keep them happy.

The EU is not really being a good customer and is forcing Russia to develop unnecessary alternative routes for energy to Europe to bypass trouble makers like the Ukraine.

Personally I can see them getting to a point where they don't want to deal with the EU any more and will just send supplies to Turkey or Germany and let them on sell the energy at whatever price they want... solves lots of problems for Russia and gives power to Turkey and Germany.

Personally I think shipping energy is an easier solution as there is less infrastructure on foreign territory that could be seized at any time and nationalised.

A fleet of tankers could deliver all sorts of things including clean water to the pacific islands and middle east... in fact a small nuclear power plant and they could produce clean fresh water from sea water and not have to carry it very far at all. A desalination ship could be very useful... you could deliver electricity and fresh water to small countries that could use both.


In the Far North of Russia it could also deliver heat in the form of a byproduct too.

The EU has to learn that Russia is not an enemy but it can be if it keeps treating it like one.

That's not how it works. EU treats Russia like Russia deserves to be treated. Weakness is not rewarded, but exploited and shunned. Only when Russia's economy is strong enough to lead Europe, and only then, will the European midgets follow the strong. Until then, Germany is happy managing the EU to its benefit, and subservient to U.S influence, the stronger force. That's just the way it's. And this affects almost any part of the "relationship" - political, cultural, economic, defense.... Matter of fact, Brussels elite would be extremely happy if Russia tomorrow goes belly up and disintegrates into a billion pieces. Easier for extraction - no resistance. That's just a fact. Elites ultimately worship power - nothing else.

These discussions trying to rationalize "irrational" behavior by EU players is extremely simple and the rational exist in a simple macro analysis. I think the actions of the EU at large exemplify this very well ever since the collapse of the USSR. Yugoslavia first, NATO at Russia's borders second, the ABM treaty, Ukraine in flames and EU wide economic sanctions imposed on Russia's economy. Not to mention the Russophobia propaganda that gets churned 24/7. Weakness invites aggression. Always has, always will and it will not change until the opposing force meets the significant resistance required to make them stop or start paying a price they're not willing to pay.

So far for Ukraine, they're willing to pay the price of mutual sanctions. They've been willing to pay the price of NATO expansion since they could care less about Russian missiles pointed at their capitals. As long as they're in the club, they feel safe, and they're insofar, safe and no one, definitely not Russia, has done anything to make them rethink they're safe. Plus many other things etc....

Russia has them on the drug they need, "energy" but Russia can't use this drug as effectively as it could because it lacks clout everywhere else in the realm of economics.

As you pointed out, Russia is, fortunately, not without options and not without potential for growth but every time I see these sort of discussions end with "but Russia should be treated this way"....lmao...Russia gets treated the way their elites allow Russia to be treated, whether by their incompetence, current position due to previous collapses or whatever, the world doesn't care. It's harsh and unforgiving. Start by hanging Gorbashev from a pole to close old wounds...along with all the other elites. Russia's predicament is, mainly, and mostly, self inflicted, not foreign.

Of course it is Russias fault that the noble honourable moral west are a bunch of .

Like I said, Russia should stop selling to them cheap energy... the west is happy to impose sanctions to make Russia suffer, let the EU countries pay three times more for their energy and see what they say then...

They should liquefy the gas and send it around the world... Asia, Africa, central and south america would all probably like cheaper energy too.

First time Photo of Central Bank Gold Reserves

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/102506/

Non-oil-and-gas deficit of Russian federal budget declines to 7.9% of GDP in 2017

More:
http://tass.com/economy/984537

MOSCOW, January 10. /TASS/. Non-oil-and-gas deficit of the federal budget declined to 7.9% OF GDP in 2017, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters on Wednesday.

"Non-oil-and-gas deficit of the federal budget drops to 7.9% of GDP (from 9.1% in 2016), while the oil price supporting the federal budget balance at the primary level declined to $60 per barrel from more than $100 per barrel in 2013-2014," Siluanov said.

Brent oil futures with delivery in March 2018 are currently traded at $68.99 a barrel on the London-based ICE.

More:
http://tass.com/economy/984537

What does that even mean? Non oil and gas deficit means that federal payments greater than input is spend from federal budget?

It simply means that Russia's federal budget deficit would be 7.9% without literally any oil & gas income, I think. Which is already quite low all things considered, IMO.

It also proves that Russia's oil dependency was always massively exaggerated by anti-Russian propaganda. Russia's actual federal budget deficit in 2017 was pretty much non-existent with an average oil price of what, $50 per barrel?

1. a scenario where Russia "shouldn't" or wouldn't have any oil & gas production and exports is ridiculous and 2. the so-called consolidated budget's (i.e. the actual overall budget) deficit is actually much lower than that (because oil & gas are less than 10% of Russia's overall GDP at this point).

The budget rule is really strict, it's absolutely killing the so-called oil dependency. Russia's budget is based on an oil price $40 per barrel, but the current oil price is close to $70. That's ridiculous.

Well, since they aligned the two reserves as 1, and mixed in with additional revenues from oil and gas sales increase (volume) mixed with increase in prices, Russia will have a nice reserve. Although they may use it for their major plan of infrastructure investment after elections (Putin's campaign promise).

Things are looking interesting.

Seems like a Coup that failed but done without any blood bath but financial debt

EXCLUSIVE: US Banks Plotted 'Financial Coup' Against Russia - Martin Armstrong

Communist presidential contender unveils 20-step program to spur growth in Russia

More:
http://tass.com/politics/984632

20-step program Pavel Grudinin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Grudinin_presidential_campaign,_2018

Program

On 10 January 2018, was officially published program of Pavel Grudinin, consisting of 20 items.[13]

1. The change of economic strategy. The priority will be the welfare of the people, not the oligarchs. The use of Russia's wealth, its natural, industrial and financial resources for the service of the people.
2. The restoration of the economic sovereignty of Russia. Withdrawal from the WTO.
3. Credit resources – the recovery of the economy. The decrease in Bank interest.
4. New industrialization, modernization of the economy and its output to innovation.
5. Ensuring food security of Russia, overcoming a situation when much of the food is imported from abroad. The return of the GOSTs and the introduction of criminal liability for falsification of food products.
6. Our historic task is to ensure the revival of the "provincial" Russia. Equalization of opportunities of regional budgets. Gasification of the country.
7. Price controls on basic foods and commodities, to housing prices.
8. Taxes – in the interests of justice and development. The introduction of a progressive tax. The abolition of value added tax, transport tax, and the system Platon.
9. Recovery guarantees for labor and 8-hour working day, providing people with work and a decent salary. Minimum salary of 25,000-30,000 rubles.
10. The destruction of the social sphere will be stopped. Free and quality secondary and higher education and health care.
11. Mothers and children will receive full support. Equating the monthly child allowances to the subsistence level of the child. The increase in the payment of monthly benefits with one and a half to three years.
12. Citizens a decent pension. The adoption of the law on "children of war". Maintaining the current age of retirement (60 for men and 55 for women). The return of indexation of pensions to working pensioners. The cancellation reduction factor of 0.54 for military retirees. The establishment of the average old-age pension – not less than 50% of the average wage.
13. We will protect the spiritual health of the nation. Support museums, theaters, libraries.
14. We guarantee massive construction of high-quality and affordable housing. Introduction the provision of flats or houses for young families, the elimination of dilapidated housing. The decline in mortgage rates to 3-4%. For many children and young families, interest-free loan for up to 30 years.
15. To curb the greed of the moneylenders. The introduction of criminal liability for involvement in a bonded transaction, the prohibition of "collrctors" activities and assignment of debt obligations of the citizens.
16. To ensure the protection of nature.
17. To ensure the defense capability and security of the country.
18. A fair trial will be on the side of the law, the citizen and the society, not the oligarchy. The real independence of the court and the investigating authorities from the Executive power, the election of judges, distribution of the competence of juries in cases of "extremism", on the 282-th article, for corruption crimes of higher officials.
19. System restore democracy and popular representation. The President will be accountable to the people and Parliament. Will be simplified the procedure of impeachment. No one will have the right to be President more than two terms of 4 years in his life. Will be established the Supreme state Council, without the approval of which will not be taken no crucial decision.
20. Improving the quality of public administration. Enter responsibility of the President for the formation of the Cabinet of Ministers, and the government's responsibility for their actions. Approval of the composition of the government will occur in the State Duma. All candidates for Ministerial posts will be publicly justified the President.