Russian Economy General News: #8

Cyberspec wrote:The article says it's money held in the IMF...and I doubt it's a large amount

Austin wrote:

The surplus of the foreign trade balance of Russia in 2017 increased by 28%

Moscow. January 17. INTERFAX.RU - The positive balance of foreign trade in Russia in 2017 increased by 28%, to $ 115.8 billion compared to $ 90.3 billion in 2016, according to the assessment of the balance of payments published on the website of the Central Bank of Russia.

The volume of exports in 2017 amounted to $ 353.7 billion, which is 26% more than in 2016 ($ 281.9 billion).

The volume of imports grew by 24% in 2017, to $ 237.9 billion from $ 191.6 billion in 2016.

In the published comments of the Central Bank to the assessment of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation for 2017 it is noted that against the backdrop of favorable price conjuncture in commodity markets, there was a noticeably higher growth in the value of exports of goods compared with imports.

According to the updated base scenario of the Central Bank's forecast in December (at an oil price of $ 53 per barrel), the foreign trade surplus of the Russian Federation in 2017 is expected at $ 112 billion with exports of $ 349 billion and imports of $ 237 billion.

http://www.interfax.ru/business/595839

Over the past year, the ruble accumulation of Russians increased by almost 14%, which exceeds inflation by 5.5 times. According to Rosstat, the volume of savings reached a record amount of almost 30 trillion rubles. Most of the money the population keeps on bank deposits - almost 20 trillion rubles, the smaller - in securities and cash - about 10 trillion. The accumulation of citizens increased due to the growth of real wages and favorable rates on deposits.

Russians at the beginning of December 2017 increased their savings to 29.5 trillion rubles. This is stated in the Rosstat data, which Izvestia got acquainted with. The growth was 13.9%, while last year's inflation was only 2.5%.

Most of all, Russian citizens trust their money to banks. The volume of deposits amounted to 19.6 trillion rubles (excluding foreign currency deposits). In cash, Russians - 5 trillion rubles, and in securities - 4.7 trillion rubles.

Despite the growth of savings, in the middle of last year, Russians gradually began to move away from the savings model of behavior, noted earlier in the Central Bank. This is evidenced by the data of Rosstat. If in the first half of 2017 the population postponed an average of 200 billion rubles a month, then in the second half the rate slowed and the average amount of savings amounted to 150 billion rubles a month.

One of the reasons for the increase in the total savings of Russians is the increase in real wages. According to Rosstat, in January-November their level rose by 3.2%. The salary of social workers has increased most, the Economic Picture for January prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development emphasizes. Only in the first nine months of last year, their salaries increased by 10%.

"Wage growth rates again updated the maximum since the beginning of the second quarter of 2016. According to preliminary estimates, the increase in real wages in November, as in October, was 5.4% year on year, "the document says.

The growth of wages is facilitated by the situation in the labor market. In connection with the demographic crisis of the 1990s, the number of the able-bodied population is now declining in Russia. The deficit of qualified personnel is observed in many industries. Since the number of vacancies exceeds the demand for them, salaries are also increasing.

Another reason for increasing the savings of Russians is the favorable deposit rates. They remain interesting for the population, even despite their decline following the key rate of the Central Bank. So says the head of the Macroeconomics and Finance of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting Dmitry Belousov.

- The population is lured to banks by rates on deposits. Yes, they declined over the year, but still remained attractive. There is no outflow of deposits, - said Dmitry Belousov. - In addition, last year the regions massively carried out the May decrees of the President on raising salaries to the average in the region.

Deposit rates in the top 10 banks declined from 8% at the beginning of the year to 7.4% in the second half of December, the Central Bank said.

Director of the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics, Georgy Ostapkovic, considers the growth of household savings as a positive factor for the economy.

- When the accumulation increases for a rainy day, the economy develops. Money is mostly kept in banks, which then send them to lending to businesses. Business invests funds borrowed into its production, thereby increasing GDP, "explained Georgy Ostapkovic.

Real wages will continue to increase further, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. Their growth in 2018 will be 3.9%, according to the agency's forecast. However, experts see this as a risk. If earnings grow at a faster pace than productivity growth, then it will create inflationary pressures. Labor productivity this year will increase by 2.2%, predicted in the Ministry of Economic Development.

Austin wrote:Russians have accumulated almost 30 trillion rubles

Citizens still trust their money to banks more

https://iz.ru/697226/inna-grigoreva/rossiiane-nakopili-pochti-30-trln-rublei

Over the past year, the ruble accumulation of Russians increased by almost 14%, which exceeds inflation by 5.5 times. According to Rosstat, the volume of savings reached a record amount of almost 30 trillion rubles. Most of the money the population keeps on bank deposits - almost 20 trillion rubles, the smaller - in securities and cash - about 10 trillion. The accumulation of citizens increased due to the growth of real wages and favorable rates on deposits.

Russians at the beginning of December 2017 increased their savings to 29.5 trillion rubles. This is stated in the Rosstat data, which Izvestia got acquainted with. The growth was 13.9%, while last year's inflation was only 2.5%.

Most of all, Russian citizens trust their money to banks. The volume of deposits amounted to 19.6 trillion rubles (excluding foreign currency deposits). In cash, Russians - 5 trillion rubles, and in securities - 4.7 trillion rubles.

Despite the growth of savings, in the middle of last year, Russians gradually began to move away from the savings model of behavior, noted earlier in the Central Bank. This is evidenced by the data of Rosstat. If in the first half of 2017 the population postponed an average of 200 billion rubles a month, then in the second half the rate slowed and the average amount of savings amounted to 150 billion rubles a month.

One of the reasons for the increase in the total savings of Russians is the increase in real wages. According to Rosstat, in January-November their level rose by 3.2%. The salary of social workers has increased most, the Economic Picture for January prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development emphasizes. Only in the first nine months of last year, their salaries increased by 10%.

"Wage growth rates again updated the maximum since the beginning of the second quarter of 2016. According to preliminary estimates, the increase in real wages in November, as in October, was 5.4% year on year, "the document says.

The growth of wages is facilitated by the situation in the labor market. In connection with the demographic crisis of the 1990s, the number of the able-bodied population is now declining in Russia. The deficit of qualified personnel is observed in many industries. Since the number of vacancies exceeds the demand for them, salaries are also increasing.

Another reason for increasing the savings of Russians is the favorable deposit rates. They remain interesting for the population, even despite their decline following the key rate of the Central Bank. So says the head of the Macroeconomics and Finance of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting Dmitry Belousov.

- The population is lured to banks by rates on deposits. Yes, they declined over the year, but still remained attractive. There is no outflow of deposits, - said Dmitry Belousov. - In addition, last year the regions massively carried out the May decrees of the President on raising salaries to the average in the region.

Deposit rates in the top 10 banks declined from 8% at the beginning of the year to 7.4% in the second half of December, the Central Bank said.

Director of the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics, Georgy Ostapkovic, considers the growth of household savings as a positive factor for the economy.

- When the accumulation increases for a rainy day, the economy develops. Money is mostly kept in banks, which then send them to lending to businesses. Business invests funds borrowed into its production, thereby increasing GDP, "explained Georgy Ostapkovic.

Real wages will continue to increase further, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. Their growth in 2018 will be 3.9%, according to the agency's forecast. However, experts see this as a risk. If earnings grow at a faster pace than productivity growth, then it will create inflationary pressures. Labor productivity this year will increase by 2.2%, predicted in the Ministry of Economic Development.

par far wrote:“the number of the able-bodied population is now declining in Russia.” This is bad, it means the Russian population is going down.

Austin wrote:

Austin wrote:The external debt of the Russian Federation in 2017 increased to $ 529.1 billion

http://www.interfax.ru/business/596215

The Russian Federation is ranked 19th, and on a positive trend compared with five years ago. Russian performance is, however, uneven across the three dimensions of the Index: it scores relatively better in terms of Economic Development than Inclusion and Intergenerational Equity and Sustainability.

Russia has recently recovered from a recession, and although its productivity growth is still low, it has now overcome the hardship of 2015. In terms of Inclusion, Russian provides decent living conditions to most of its population but concentrates wealth in a few hands. In fact, the poverty rate is low (0.3%), and median living standards are relatively good in the context of emerging countries, though the wealth Gini (at 82.6) is high. At the same time, income inequality (as measured by the net Gini index) is also relatively high and has increased from five years ago.

In terms of Intergenerational Equity and Sustainability, Russia has low debt and a positive dependency ratio, yet is depleting its natural resources and, despite recent improvements, has a carbon intensive economy.

miketheterrible wrote:I read the article and it's rather good.

First off, to state it - he isn't a liberal. Actually, on contrary, what he suggested is usually conservative

He is talking about that instead of replenishing reserves, it's much better to use excess money for investment and development.  Currently, his gripe is that there is a somewhat lacking prospect for mega projects in construction. So he states that after the Crimea Bridge and the arenas, there is nothing else set in stone for 2018. That more projects in infrastructure is needed.  Also states there needs to be a much better method for pensioners and or banks to invest locally in said mega projects.

As well, to invest in the military industrial complex. And as well, to stop expecting money from outside and start looking internally.

I say it was a good read. He goes into somewhat hysteric mode at start I think to make a point out - slow growth unless we do x thing.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:I read the article and it's rather good.

First off, to state it - he isn't a liberal. Actually, on contrary, what he suggested is usually conservative

He is talking about that instead of replenishing reserves, it's much better to use excess money for investment and development.  Currently, his gripe is that there is a somewhat lacking prospect for mega projects in construction. So he states that after the Crimea Bridge and the arenas, there is nothing else set in stone for 2018. That more projects in infrastructure is needed.  Also states there needs to be a much better method for pensioners and or banks to invest locally in said mega projects.

As well, to invest in the military industrial complex. And as well, to stop expecting money from outside and start looking internally.

I say it was a good read. He goes into somewhat hysteric mode at start I think to make a point out - slow growth unless we do x thing.

Russian pundits are one-note-Johnny pessimists.   He is forgetting about the massive, on-going railway projects.

Based on the objective evidence so far, it is clear that Putin is using mega-projects to stimulate the Russian economy.   But Putin
is not willing to blow the budget on white elephants.    I think Putin is 100% on target.   Having the GDP dependent on massive
state spending is faking the economy, just like the popular near zero interest rates and QE in the west.   You get bubbles and not
real growth.   So this "conservative" is a bit of an idiot if he thinks that Russia needs to splurge on mega-projects.   All mega-projects
run out.   At least with Putin's approach they are dosed on moderation and are not going to stop any time soon.