Russian Economy General News: #8

American ambassador allowed the arrest of Russian assets in the United States in the "case of Skripal"

https://rns.online/economy/amerikanskii-posol-dopustil-arest-rossiiskih-aktivov-v-SSHa-po-delu-Skripalya-2018-03-29/


I wonder if they will seize Russian T bills about $100 Billion , That would for once and all prevent Russian investing in US Forex for good

If they did that on speculation rather than hard evidence, the US will see massive flee of money from US. That will utterly destroy them.

I hope they do it.

Austin wrote:8 trillion comes to $ 136 billion over  next 6 years .....not a big amount if average growth rate of 4 % can be achieved for next 6 years

Taking into account that crude oil will not be so much down (Saudis talk  about next 10-20 years price cap alliance it is easy to fiance this form oil alone. Most importantly is to ensure money is not "leaked out somewhere". Luckily it wont be  London :-)
As for US - arresting Russian t-bonds would hurt US market even more AFAIK. We'll see how good risk management has Putin anyway soon.



And yes I wonder what Putin will decide to do with pro-western liberals. To me it is hard to understand such an attitude. Personally I do not believe in BS about liberal trade and economy. But being Russian and prowestern is oxymoron. It is like pro-Hitler communist

kvs wrote:

Pure BS.  Under Obama and Trump the USA can run 1.5 trillion dollar deficits (with a budget of 3.7 trillion dollars) and everything is
hunky dory.   But Russia can't even up its spending over a 6 year period because "bad things will happen".

These "bad things" are Russia's GDP growth will be higher and development levels will increase.   Everything is about the wants
and needs of NATO.

oh no no no. Not pure! numbers about money to be invested were real, similar to Skripal poisoning. He was poisoned . this is fact!

ZoA wrote:Russian government is stupid to sell it's bonds in London thus allowing City of London kleptocrats to collect fees on those sales. UK government is stupid to attempt to prevent those sales that benefit them. I hope they ban them, that would be one more way  sanctions would actually benefit Russia and undermine Russian neoiberal faction..

Brits are not stupid.  It is their long planned action. Brexit IMHO was one of them. Is this weathering of economical storm? Yes hitting oligarchs will have goo effect to Russia and London's budget onetime shot. I guess must be  something even more important in UK fiances then couple of thieves and run-away scum.


The only reason why Russia might have decided to do this traitor in UK  is to actually trigger such reaction. Yes trigger so anglosaxons start too early  before they are ready for an inevitable confrontation.

Kimppis wrote:
Now the situation is different. The economy has adjusted to the new reality. The first, the main stage, of military modernization is almost complete, they are ready for the low oil prices, the shock from 2014-15 is history, inflation is low and Russia knows that cheap Western credit won't be available. WW3 might of course start tomorrow, but Putin's last term could actually be quite stable for Russia. OK, maybe I'm too optimistic, but there's a real chance... That said, I realize that his previous term was stable as well internally, very stable actually, but it's possible that the international situation can't get much worse at this point and/or it will atleast matter less for Russia and its internal development.

Wrong WW3 has actually started in 2013 in Kiev.  Will this be the last term for Putin?  Tet would be great. Not that  i have anything against Putin, but this would mean he reached his objectives: to eave Russia modernized, stable and developing well  

My suspicion is that he keeps liberals around only to somehow integrate them to be pro Russian. Perhaps there is also some external pressure. History teaches that after one brilliant rules not always comes another equal to predecessor. Thus Putin wants to leave legal / political system stable and self regulating.  This is precisely what happened after Stalin was killed.

The foreign affairs select committee is setting up an inquiry into how the UK financially props up Vladimir Putin’s allies, and the measures the UK has taken to clamp down on corrupt Russian money in London.

How does selling Russian sovereign debt become corrupt Russian money?

Or is all Russian money corrupt?

The west did not invent corruption, but has taken it to a level where they don't even recognise it as being what it is...

Keep pushing Russia away... look forward to the "well they are bad anyway" when we really find out what happened and it turns out the Russian government had nothing to do with it... I am sure in the end though they will say there is no evidence, but they wanted it to happen so they are guilty anyway... isn't that basically what they said about the infamous Russian hackers?

GunshipDemocracy wrote:after one brilliant rules not always comes another equal to predecessor. Thus Putin wants to leave legal / political system stable and self regulating.  This is precisely what happened after Stalin was killed.

So Stalin was a brilliant ruler?

KiloGolf wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:after one brilliant rules not always comes another equal to predecessor. Thus Putin wants to leave legal / political system stable and self regulating.  This is precisely what happened after Stalin was killed.

So Stalin was a brilliant ruler?

Stalin was killed?

Svyatoslavich wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:after one brilliant rules not always comes another equal to predecessor. Thus Putin wants to leave legal / political system stable and self regulating.  This is precisely what happened after Stalin was killed.

So Stalin was a brilliant ruler?

Stalin was killed?

I know right!?!

KiloGolf wrote:

Svyatoslavich wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:after one brilliant rules not always comes another equal to predecessor. Thus Putin wants to leave legal / political system stable and self regulating.  This is precisely what happened after Stalin was killed.

So Stalin was a brilliant ruler?

Stalin was killed?

I know right!?!

If you know Stalin only form Hollywood then yes yu are correct. However if you start analyzing historical materials you can find couple of interesting info:

1) Stalin was brilliant ruler. Why do you thing he wasnt? He moved war ravaged backward country to status of superpower. Created solid foundation for scientific development and industrial development. His decisions on economy, industrial development and innovation were good. And same time eroded by idiots like Ukrop Khrushchev

2) Well : in short internal enemies + rejecting of USD/Brenton Woods agreements and decision to base Ruble on glad standard

3) Starikov says that during Stalin time there was the only period without Warburg and Rothschild banks in the USSR.

I can't resist. The Doctor's Plot suggest that Stalin was either not given enough medical attention or helped on his way
in his final moments. Luckily for any perps such cases are always ambiguous. Only stupid Russians use Polonium or some
Novichok agent to off their "victims". The smart ones use more subtle methods, such inducing heart attacks (trivial to do
and no contamination of the area is left as well as no decay products that are not found in the human body; for example
KCl is one way to kill via a heart attack and both K+ and Cl- are regular metabolytes).

Eurasian Union: how to quickly get rid of the dollar

https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2018/03/29/11700458.shtml?updated

They should not only de-dolarise the Eurasian Union from USD but also Russian FOrex should get de-dolarise and reduce the cotent of European forex.

Difficult as it may be , Time for CBR to think seriously else Duma should just make it a mandate via bill

India is borrowing $90 Billion from its market to fund its budget deficit , Good time for CBR to invest in Indian Bond they fetch handsome return and is safe and india is very friendly nation

The Kremlin loses $ 100 billion in expectation of mercy from the US

http://svpressa.ru/politic/article/196555/?utm_source=finobzor.ru

Austin wrote:The Kremlin loses $ 100 billion in expectation of mercy from the US

http://svpressa.ru/politic/article/196555/?utm_source=finobzor.ru

They will freeze the assets of anyone they deem a threat if push comes to shove (the only factor is how deep in the war the powers are). The reputation argument = "we scared, don't know what to do, don't want to escalate - aka weak paralysis". The U.S doesn't give two shits. What Russia should be worried about is their reputation of being second fiddle and being bullied around - others DO take NOTICE. Which is why Europe will suck American's boot strap until it collapses. That $100B could be put to great use - that's roughly the defense budget of Russia for two straight years. Obviously this would be invested elsewhere but still, it's Russian money. An asset freeze is THEFT, knowing who the thief is, and taking it from behind. Obviously Putin has intelligence and assets to know when these moves are coming but that is a dangerous game to play, cause once they decide on doing it, there won't be time to short-cash, and pull out since the U.S will prevent that and see it coming.

Best solution is to gradually cash out and only keep a bare minimum, say 20B, while you still can. None of the bureaucrats and their advice in the CBR or Putin's circle is worth 100B. Also, when the other side is the one with escalation dominance, the more the unpredictability, the more reason to pull out.

Ukraine is not enough I guess.

kvs wrote:I can't resist.   The Doctor's Plot suggest that Stalin was either not given enough medical attention or helped on his way
in his final moments.    Luckily for any perps such cases are always ambiguous.    Only stupid Russians use Polonium or some
Novichok agent to off their "victims".   The smart ones use more subtle methods, such inducing heart attacks (trivial to do
and no contamination of the area is left as well as no decay products that are not found in the human body; for example
KCl is one way to kill via a heart attack and both K+ and Cl- are regular metabolytes).  

The worst about Stalin is that he left no decent follow up leader. The question is if his surroundings were cooperating with west or their incidents just coincide?



AS for Polonium or Novinchok - My theory

80% probability - UK to aggregate relations because of Russian independence in politics vector (since since Georgia is started snowballing)

20% Russia's statement that traitors can run but cannot hide with serious crimes (also lever on some oligarchs perhaps?)


Skripal:
67% - UK to pressure Russia for new level of aggression - Syria not bombed out, Donbass - no ethnic cleansing, economy not in ruins. And Putin has show new weapons so UK can be erased from map by couple of Kindzhals in case of aggression by promoting democracy. Stealing "golden trillion" USD form run away oligarchs amid new global depression.


33% Russia - to start UK act before all is properly prepared for full scale aggression. There might be hints left but never will be enough proofs can make shift in "unity" of EU.
Besides before elections Russian society united by external pressure. + oligarchs can think twice before staying there or running away with money. perhaps some percentage of trillion even returns to Russian economy.

+ ruined western imago in all Russian liberal oligarchs

Austin wrote:They should not only de-dolarise the Eurasian Union from USD but also Russian FOrex should get de-dolarise and reduce the cotent of  European forex.

Difficult as it may be , Time for CBR to think seriously else Duma should just make it a mandate via bill

India is borrowing $90 Billion from its market to fund its budget deficit , Good time for CBR to invest in Indian Bond they fetch handsome return and is safe and india is very friendly nation

As for Indian vector of investments I agree. But as for dedolarization is "in making" . Slow but is going. last year only Putin forbade to set prices of Russian ports in Russian market in USD!!!


Petro-yuan helps Russia & China dump US dollar in oil trade
https://www.rt.com/business/422472-russia-china-petro-yuan/

After Monday's launch of the yuan-backed oil futures in Shanghai, there have been negotiation between Russia and China on mutual promotion of oil futures in national currencies, RIA Novosti reported. In 2016, the St. Petersburg exchange in Russia launched Urals oil futures in the Russian ruble, and support from China could prop up Russian crude futures.

China's new oil benchmark had a hugely successful debut. On the first day of trading in Shanghai, 62,500 contracts with more than 62 million barrels of crude traded for a notional value of nearly 27 billion yuan ($4 billion), Zerohedge reported. Glencore, Trafigura, Freepoint Commodities and other huge oil-trading corporations took part.

Russia held its position as China's largest crude oil supplier in February. Russia supplied 5.052 million tons, or 1.32 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up 17.8 percent from a year earlier, according to Reuters, quoting the Chinese General Administration of Customs.

ATLASCUB wrote:

Austin wrote:The Kremlin loses $ 100 billion in expectation of mercy from the US

Ukraine is not enough I guess.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/external-debt

Russian external debt is ~ 530 blns USD. Of which most is  private companies. Well you got 100 vs 530 blns who wins by mutual arresting assets?

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/external-debt

Russian external debt is ~ 530 blns USD. Of which most is  private companies. Well you got 100 vs 530 blns who wins by mutual arresting assets?

True, and very relevant if Russia had government willing to protect Russian national interest. But guess what, Russia does not have such government, instead they have bunch of spineless appeasing neoliberal idiots running the key ministries and institutions. The last thing they will do is do something that would damage foreign banks, bondholders and stock-owners. They would sooner have Moscow turned in to nuclear ash and 90% of Russian population killed then offend international capitalist elite by seizing or freezing their assets in Russia.

That's not true. Many cases, Russian government hinted at the possibility of freezing payments of foreign based debt if their money is frozen.

Iran did similar things.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
AS for  Polonium or Novinchok - My theory

80% probability - UK to aggregate relations  because of Russian independence in politics vector (since since Georgia is started snowballing)

20%  Russia's statement  that traitors can run but cannot hide with serious crimes (also lever on some oligarchs perhaps?)


Skripal:
67% - UK to pressure Russia for new level of aggression - Syria not bombed out, Donbass - no ethnic cleansing, economy not in ruins. And Putin has show new weapons so UK can be erased from map by couple of Kindzhals in case of aggression by promoting democracy. Stealing "golden trillion" USD form run away oligarchs amid new global depression.


33% Russia  - to start UK act before all is properly prepared for full scale aggression. There might be hints left but never will be enough proofs can make shift in "unity" of EU.
Besides before elections Russian society united by external pressure. + oligarchs can think twice before staying there or running away with money. perhaps some percentage of trillion even returns to Russian economy.

I would put 100% in both cases this being work of British intelligence. How do i know that? Because this kind of weird shit never happens with traitors residing in countries outside of UK. There are hundreds of Russian traitors residing in US, Israel, France and elsewhere, and we never hear anything of the kind happening to them, but for some reason only those residing in UK risk being u killed in ridiculously convoluted and unplausible way. And I'm not talking only of hose 2 cases but also of suspicious death of Boris Berezovsky  who mysteriously died shortly after sending letter of apology to Putin requesting permission to return to Russia from UK.  

This generally fits the pattern of other mysterious murders involving British intelligence but not necessary connected with Russia, such as Northern Island connected killings, suicideing of David Kelly for exposing lies about Iraq chemical weapons  stockpiles, series of highly suspicions terrorist attacks just before last UK election that seem to be orchestrated mostly to prop up Tory regime, 7/7 bombings and so on. It looks to me killing people for cheap political gains or cover-ups is something British intelligence loves to do.

miketheterrible wrote:That's not true. Many cases, Russian government hinted at the possibility of freezing payments of foreign based debt if their money is frozen.

I'll believe it when I see it. Craven appeasement they displayed to date definitely does not make me expect anything of the kind. All bark, no bite.

Remember the sanctions, ZoA?
The west claimed, Russia would be broke in half a year. Now the russian economy is stronger than any in the west. The EU lost much more than Russia and it is keep losing. The same will happen in this case.

And funny too that he forgets that Russia retaliated by placing counter sanctions on EU and US products.

miketheterrible wrote:And funny too that he forgets that Russia retaliated by placing counter sanctions on EU and US products.

He is right. Russia is fellating NATO with its holdings of US treasurys and similar EU instruments. It should have accumulated gold and
secondarily other currencies.

NATO leaders are demented. Check out the latest forced "inspection" of a Russian plane at Heathrow. The UK asswipes are clearly
faking an "evidence trail".

China and US are at each other throats, yet Chinese state owns a lot of US debt too.

miketheterrible wrote:China and US are at each other throats, yet Chinese state owns a lot of US debt too.

That’s because of their trade turnover , US can’t afford to take over Chinese t bills this
will cause bond market collapse , Russian trade relations with US is penny’s and 100 bibilluon in forex is peanuts it can easily confiscate without any impact on T bills market

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:And funny too that he forgets that Russia retaliated by placing counter sanctions on EU and US products.

He is right.   Russia is fellating NATO with its holdings of US treasurys and similar EU instruments.   It should have accumulated gold and
secondarily other currencies.

NATO leaders are demented.  Check out the latest forced "inspection" of a Russian plane at Heathrow.   The UK asswipes are clearly
faking an "evidence trail".  

I have been saying this for long time , deforex USD asap
Under John Bolton as nsa expect more tougher anti Russia policu