Russian Economy General News: #8

Add in the supposed $20-30B that South Korea is wanting to pump in far east, then it gets better. Hopefully Vietnam and others follow suite.

kvs wrote:

ZoA wrote:Sorry, I may have misunderstood what your point is. However i don't see how interest rate in 1996 at abut 11% proves China was building it's infrastructure with foreign credit. In fact given inflation burst at the time those interest rates are not excessive, when adjusted CPI at that time they come well below 5% interest effectiv.

+

I am getting sick and tired of this retarded spew about printing money.    We have monetarist fellow travelers in this thread spreading monetarist
BS.   Thick and rich.    The money supply is a function of the GDP size.  Full stop.

You cannot copy China unless:
-USA is not trying actively to corner you and dismember
- you dont have population like 10x more
- ou dotn spend on military much just copying
- you dont have restrictions on western markets

Yet still China has 3 trillions USD (half on HK). Chinese communists didn't have traitors in 90s.


Bismarck once said " Die Politik ist die Lehre vom Möglichen" ( Politics is the art of the possible).

Tell me please how Putin could did better those what he did? End of 90' Russian state was not far for ceasing of existence. West/Saudis were financing Chechen terrorists, western companies and oligarchs were about to split Russia. Many of former siloviki were working close to oligarchs...USD was actual currency (or dream one for poor) . Russian population in MASSIVE decline. Army in decay.

And how you would do it now? I am curious.

kvs wrote:
People in this thread systematically ignore or are totally ignorant on the aspect of the interest rate relative to inflation.    
Nabiullina is a liar who claims Russia has inflation instability.   If that was true, then high interest rates would not systematically drive down the
CPI.   In fact, given the experience around the world, high interest rates could stimulate a higher CPI.    Russia is nowhere near inflation instability.
It is not a decaying developed economy.   There is a vast pool of unsatiated demand from the public and business sector for infrastructure
development and the gap can be seen in the standard of living.    It has improved a lot under Putin, but it is not saturated.  

And what are factors generally contributing to  inflation increase?  OK president KVS and prime minister ZoA  throw billions of Rubles in economy. Of course fresh printed because there is  nowhere you can take if from.  Since you lowered  % but you dont have any money on investment accounts. Who is storing money during high inflation? neither production capabilities so everything is going to be bought abroad...   average Kuznetzov is either loosing all savings or buys usd NOT to loose them all. There are no way for average Russian to invest , how? a jar? gold? USD? any more proposals?

How this magic GDP growth should happen?!

kvs wrote:
PS.  There is am implicit belief that Russia is using the outdated public savings model to finance its economy.   Large private savings are
a thing of the past when the global financial industry was not as developed.    

Then ekhm, nothing personal you know, but why do you live in Canada which is actually living by maggots' rules and you say what is right to Russia?! and how Russia in 90 could have developed banking system

Austin wrote: Chinese investors intend to implement projects in the Far East for $ 30 billion

+

@miketheterrible

That's exactly because investors can see stable currency and less risks to invest. Would they invest in Zimbabwe?  Investments are function of political/economical stability and military power. Dont you think?  BTW infrastructure is very expensive to build and actually  safest to let foreign investors to build. They dont like Russia and what? stop ships in Russian ports? stop railroads ? or close roads? well there is surely caluse for nationalization then. those money stay in Russia no matter what.


Saudi Aramco can invest in Russian scientific developments for oil and gas

HOUSTON, March 7th. / TASS /. The world's largest oil producer and oil company Saudi Aramco is exploring the possibility of investing in developing technologies for the oil and gas sector based on Russian research centers. This was reported by TASS's vice-president of Saudi Aramco on technology Ahmad al-Hovayter in the margins of the oil conference CERAWeek (IHS Markit) in Houston.

"We are already negotiating with a number of Russian universities on technological cooperation, negotiations have just begun, but we are waiting for it to become a partnership in some research areas." We are now studying the possibility of conducting joint scientific research in Russia, "he said.

He explained that Saudi Aramco has already invested in 11 research centers around the world, five of which are located in Asia, the rest in Europe and the US.

"We also see opportunities for investing in Moscow in many interesting areas, especially in mathematics and physics, where there are a number of areas where we would like to conduct joint research." We are studying the possibility of investing in Russian research. .

Ahmad Al-Hawaiter added that Saudi Aramco is investing in technologies that are applicable to the oil and gas sector and other areas of life.

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/5014490[/quote]

kvs wrote:

And how you would do it now? I am curious.

OK, smartass.   Do not convolve the whole period from 1999 until today.   The CBR was well behaved before Nabiullina took over.   It set
a prime rate of 8.5% when inflation was 13% and higher.    Nabiullina is setting a similar rate when the inflation is under 3%.    There is
clear evidence that Putin's peak success (after 2008) was due in part to Russian companies financing themselves abroad where they could
get financing for 4%.    NATO cut this market off for Russia and Russia has had almost no growth since then.   The CBR must lower the
prime rate to 2.5% or lower today.

You didnt answer my question how would you did better? Personal boorish talk just shows your unbalanced emotions.

And what are factors generally contributing to  inflation increase?

How this magic GDP growth should happen?!

I suppose you believe that corporations can function fully on the savings they collect.    Get an education.

I didnt say I believe that is what you said. I kindly asked how magical pouring in economy get GDP  magically grow? in conditions as they were in 2014?
BTW i wonder what is exactly your education ? From my natural kindness I wont ask what was max size of team you have manged and or budget

Half my family lives in Russia, you f*cking polak troll.  I am quite sure you don't have a single relative in Russia.  Take your ass over to a pro-Poland and pro-NATO board and spread your shit there.  Cute how you totally avoid the issue that Russian banks are not giving their customers 7.5% for deposits.

No, I didnt.  But you tell me what is % of deposits vs. %.  In Eurozone you have 12-5% where deposits are 1-3%. Tell me how it is different from Russian banks?
But in the west there are magical financial  instruments. Tell me what about Russia? how amny instruments has average Russian to invest in?

BTW for your I have many friends in Russia though we visit not that often but with some everyday we got communicators and mails you know.  This is called progress.

This is getting annoying.

Russian banks are fine as liquidy has grown, and banks are seeing massive profits as well.

kvs wrote:

Nabiullina is a traitor who needs to be shot.   The CBR must set the prime rate to 2.5% or less.   This will open up borrowing on
the domestic market.    For banks loans are assets, so increased borrowing will automatically increase the size of the Russian
banking sector.    Russia needs much more than just import substitution.   It needs a solid, independent banking sector.
Nabiullina and the CBR are doing everything possible to undermine this.

OK this is your opinion which you have full right to be entitled to. How I see it is:

a) Putin knows about so many things in international politics/business we or so called "experts" and bloggers will never know or even imagine.
b) no "expert" or blogger has no responsibility neither for Russia nor for people. Putin does.
c) Putin's choice is to choose the best option form what is possible not what he wants to be
d) I am neither liberal nor monetarist but living beyond somebody's means is sheer stupidity or choice to live as criminal


e) last but not least: current term of Putin is perhaps most important one. He has to prepare and leave system that works without him...neither Peter I nor Stalin did not have a chance to make it. Although Peter I was much closer to success.


In this light I still believe that

a) most important: make army and strategic deterrence first. You cannot have peaceful development with armed criminals roaming on your street

b) consolidation of society around Russian values to make any maidan harder

c) securing banking system (liquidation of many small "rogue" banks, creating legal system of financial instruments and pension funds, %rate stability) is a good move

d) stable economy, legal regulations is done then more money will be pumped into economy. Economy is not going to develop without markets, customers that want to buy it.
Russian market is fairly small , you cannot make super efficient processors if you can only sell in Russia. Opening foreign markets requires military might too...
look on Syria and Turkey/Saudis what a change in economical relations right after showing whos in charge...


e) of course investing in science and technology can give Russian needed boost. But companies need of curse financing, in the west you dont build companies fast with banking loans but with money form funds or stock exchanges... those AFAIK is not working in Russia yet. There is alos not enough finds investing in Russian stock exchange yet.


Well so far soo good. Lets wait what will change now in economics? After 1st of March in politics already did.

miketheterrible wrote:
Russian banks are fine as liquidy has grown, and banks are seeing massive profits as well.

Desired function of a bank is not a profit but injecting liquidity in to real economy. High banking profit rate is ominous sigh, it means banking is parasitic, extracting capital out of the real economy by means of high fees and high interest rates. If banking is able to extract such high rates out of economy it also means there is general lack of available capital in the market forcing those that need capital to pay direly for it.

It is all very concerning.

Banking in Russia is extremely dysfunctional, literally destroying the economy. I think the best illustration of this is Sberbank, that is technically Russian state owned bank but is under control of treasonous neoliberal  German Gref. That bank acts as complete for profit parasitic entity, limiting supply of credit and charging high interest and fees, and instead of investing in to real manufacturing and production they instead invest in bullshit funnymoney speculation such as crypto currencies at the time when Russian manufacturing is starving for cash.

You people that think there can be any kind of real economic development in Russian whit people like Gref and Nabiullina controlling key economic institutions are entirely delusional. And time will prove me right. Mark my words, if neoliberals are not purged but stay in place and Russian gets more then 3% GDP growth in 2019 you can call me an idiot in January of 2020. It will NOT  HAPPEN!

ZoA wrote:
You people that think there can be any kind of real economic development in Russian whit people like Gref and Nabiullina controlling key economic institutions are entirely delusional. And time will prove me right. Mark my words, if neoliberals are not purged but stay in place and Russian gets more then 3% GDP growth in 2019 you can call me an idiot in January of 2020. It will NOT  HAPPEN!

Nobody is going to to you an idiot, there is no treason for that and I am absolutely against personal rants. We might differ in opinions but is good to be able to exchange them. We both can profit to learn arguments of the other side.  

Hmmm if interest rates only would be the only problem as blog authors say then China and India wouldn't be developing so fast. IMHO Putin is doing cleaning and sealing financial systems  before money are poured into economy to set it on healthy foundation growth manner.

As for cash - crytpo currencies can be used both ways to develop a new technology i.e. not going step by step following west but jumping ahead. And what's equally important.
Developing AI, RPA or blockchain is actually future of banking/fintech. I am not sure why do you think Sbar\\erbank here is wrong?

Gref seems to provide people with lover interest rates for mortgages. Just because its risk management is better and capital higher then competitors.
No  dont like really Gref either but I think Putin thinks what if Gref wasent there?  There were also. For some reasons Putin said things about economic growth and for some reasons he kept neoliberals on their posts. Was ti because he knows growth will be ?  or he had to we will learn really soon.  Things form 1st of march started to accelerate.

ZoA wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:
Russian banks are fine as liquidy has grown, and banks are seeing massive profits as well.

Desired function of a bank is not a profit but injecting liquidity in to real economy. High banking profit rate is ominous sigh, it means banking is parasitic, extracting capital out of the real economy by means of high fees and high interest rates. If banking is able to extract such high rates out of economy it also means there is general lack of available capital in the market forcing those that need capital to pay direly for it.

It is all very concerning.

Banking in Russia is extremely dysfunctional, literally destroying the economy. I think the best illustration of this is Sberbank, that is technically Russian state owned bank but is under control of treasonous neoliberal  German Gref. That bank acts as complete for profit parasitic entity, limiting supply of credit and charging high interest and fees, and instead of investing in to real manufacturing and production they instead invest in bullshit funnymoney speculation such as crypto currencies at the time when Russian manufacturing is starving for cash.

You people that think there can be any kind of real economic development in Russian whit people like Gref and Nabiullina controlling key economic institutions are entirely delusional. And time will prove me right. Mark my words, if neoliberals are not purged but stay in place and Russian gets more then 3% GDP growth in 2019 you can call me an idiot in January of 2020. It will NOT  HAPPEN!

Then that would indicate all banks around the world, Including Iran's central bank, is pillaging it's people

Relevant

miketheterrible wrote:

Then that would indicate all banks around the world, Including Iran's central bank, is pillaging it's people

Chinese and Indian and German too! I still would like to her what ZOA and KVS would od if they were Nabiulina.


So far I've heard that banks take down by CBR were either transferring capital offshore via illegal financial vehicles of just do it for owners and friends. I would like to hear one example when small but healthy bank, crediting SME was shut down by Nabiulina.

In Russiais almost 2x as many banks as in UK and somehow in the UK economy is competitive.


UK
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/careers/companies/top-banks-in-the-uk/

There are more than 45 building societies and 300 banks in the UK, making it the biggest banking system in Europe and the fourth largest in the world. The different branches of the UK banking system include:

Russia

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/10/26/russias-incredibly-shrinking-banking-sector/

From 2012, the number of banks declined from 937 down to 559 currently, according to the Global Bank Directory, a database of banking groups. The size of assets held by banks which are currently under bankruptcy reorganization is around $140 billion, or 12% of total assets held by banks in Russia.

The gist of the story goes like this: after the collapse of the Soviet Union, private individuals with capital on hand formed banks. They charged high interest rates. They made money for themselves and that was that. There was no risk management in place and almost no customer service. Subsequently, banks like Otkritie made risky bets in the bond markets and fell on tough times; and tough times are easy to come by in Russia.

“It is no secret to anybody that the business model for banks in Russia has changed,” says Ksenia Yudaeva, first deputy governor of the Russian central bank. “They didn’t have good management practices. They focused on their enriching their owners. So, we have to take away licenses of some banks. Others failed because of regulatory pressures of a modern banking system.”

That's why CBR invests in USD. Simple. Chinese CB also stated they keep investing in US papers. Simple too. Song Hongbing (author of Currency Wars) nicely explained this in an interview with Vzglyad something like 2 years ago (as far as I remember):
"
The whole financial system after WW II was built around dollar. Neither Chine nor Russia can reject it without any real alternative. Rejecting USD now could be disaster bigger for both countries then for USA. The only option is to build first an alternative system based on Renminbi/Gold and then gradually switch to this"





The Ministry of Finance announced its readiness to stop buying US government bonds

Russia may refuse to invest foreign exchange reserves in US government bonds, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Monday.
Despite the fact that by the end of 2017, investments in the US public debt were increased by $ 16.1 billion, or a record amount for 7 years, the government "absolutely does not hold on to American securities," Siluanov said on NTV.
"We are ready to invest in the securities issued by other sovereign states," the minister said, adding that "they had the highest rating level, they were liquid and brought income."
Russia already buys debt obligations of European countries, but American bonds remain one of the most reliable, Siluanov said.

Words from the Ministry of Finance should be interpreted "as numerous earlier statements, which ended in nothing," says investment director of IC "Peter Trust" Mikhail Altynov.
Russia will not be able to harm the US by dumping securities on the market, he explains: $ 100 billion is a very small amount for the market, he simply will not notice the sale of such a volume. China, for example, in 2016 sold US securities for 180 billion dollars for six months, but this did not affect their prices.
Russia holds dollars in reserves, since almost 60% of all foreign trade transactions are concluded in the American currency.

http://www.finanz.ru/novosti/obligatsii/minfin-zayavil-o-gotovnosti-prekratit-pokupku-gosobligaciy-ssha-1018622549

Alternative is EuroBond , BRICS Bond , AAA Rated companies , IMF SDR , more Gold purchase [ add Silver and Platinum to it if you wish ] , Buying Chinese or Indian Government Bond is not bad either as these are sovereign rated funds , Indian Government T bills gets 7-8 % returns

CBR can keep small amount say 20 Billion USD for some financial transaction.

The idea that there is no option to US T bills is just plain lie ......CBR is screwing up Russian Money for just being plain lazy and incompetent and not understanding the serious political risk of investing in US T-bills

Austin wrote:Alternative is EuroBond , BRICS Bond , AAA Rated companies , IMF SDR , more Gold purchase [ add Silver and Platinum to it if you wish ] , Buying Chinese or Indian Government Bond is not bad either as these are sovereign rated funds , Indian Government T bills gets 7-8 % returns

CBR can keep small amount say 20 Billion USD for some financial transaction.

The idea that there is no option to US T bills is just plain lie ......CBR is screwing up Russian Money for just being plain lazy and incompetent  and not understanding the serious political risk of investing in US T-bills

ehkhm India self has more US papers then Russia. China by order of magnitude more. Do you think both CBs are screwing their countries? it ia just a cold calculation. From US point of view neither Indian nor Russian investments in papers are negligible. Both aforementioned countries need liquid assets. And low risk.

Not sure about India but Russian debts and dues in USD are higher then USD reserves. No magic in it.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:ehkhm India self has more US papers then Russia. China by order of magnitude more. Do you think both CBs are screwing their countries? it ia just a cold calculation. From US point of view neither Indian nor Russian investments in papers are negligible. Both aforementioned countries need liquid assets. And low risk.

Not sure about India but Russian debts and dues in USD are higher then USD reserves. No magic in it.

Neither India or China is in any cold war with US unlike Russia.

Buying Indian or China Bonds is not a Risk to Russia as they are soverign bond guranteed by their government.

From Russia pov holding US T Bill is a grave risk something CBR can "easily" mitigate in the options I mentioned.

this was funny

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-15/as-u-k-condemns-russia-investors-pile-into-gazprom-bond-sale

As U.K. Condemns Russia, Investors Pile Into Gazprom Bond Sale

Austin wrote:
Neither India or China is in any cold war with US unlike Russia.

China is. India not yet. But as economy grows, and political influence will either be a vassal or start to have problems with "human rights"
Nevertheless you tend to forget that USD is world currency we like or not ( I dont) . Russian internal B2B transactions were till recently based mostly on USD!!! Madness.
Russian companies and state alike have still many dues in USD.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/external-debt
External Debt in Russia decreased to 529.10 USD Billion in the fourth quarter of 2017



Russian economy is not as large as Chinese. Has not so much weight. there is need in liquidity in USD. I believe that rationale behind US T-bonds investments is that this is best, cheapest option. for now. Besides nobody even mentioned in Us govt blocking Russian reserves. This would impact US t-bonds harder than Russian.

Perhaps when foreign debts burden decreases we might see another policy.

Austin wrote:
Buying Indian or China Bonds is not a Risk to Russia as they are soverign bond guranteed by their government.
From Russia pov holding US T Bill is a grave risk something CBR can "easily" mitigate in the options I mentioned.

Yuan so far is pegged to USD and Rupiah is with all respect not yet any reserve currency and  exchange rate can change very much in case you need USD for liquidity.

Actually, US is bringing India to court through the WTO for unfair practices. This can hurt Indian/US relations.

miketheterrible wrote:Actually, US is bringing India to court through the WTO for unfair practices.  This can hurt Indian/US relations.

WTO should be WTF. Free market is as long free as US profits if opposite situation happens than "unfair practices" and "dumping" starts ))

kvs wrote:BTW, the whole reserves discussion is unrelated to the CBR's criminal interest rates policy.   But it does
offer more evidence that the clowns running the CBR are monetarist NATO bootlicks.

I am no fan of liberals in economy but I dont think Putin lets them work like that without reason. We dont know what were other options? intel reports, security council advises or behind doors  economic levers from western deep states. We'll see how much economical policy will change after 1st of march. external one has changed already.



The US Treasury: in January 2018, the Russian Federation reduced investments in US government bonds to $ 96.9 billion

WASHINGTON, March 16. / TASS /. Russia in the first month of 2018 reduced the volume of investments in securities of the US government to $ 96.9 billion, in December 2017 this amount was $ 102.2 billion, according to the data released Thursday by the US Treasury Department.

Подробнее на ТАСС:

http://tass.ru/ekonomika/5035486