Syrian War: News #19

Today Turkish Ministry of Defense has declared they are ready to attack Kurdish NE Syria. The necessary planning and preparation activities related to the Eastern Euphrates operation were completed, so Turkey will likely commence the attack soon. Having Trump fullfill his promis about Syxit, Turkey will likely try to fill the empty room afterwards. This should put significant pressure on the Kurds, that will have to ally with the Government.

and how many times has Turkey said that? a lot. It's not different than the other times they said it.

Haha it was postponed because US military delayed Syexit, you didn't knew??

They would attack if we leave yes, but they aren't going to attack long as we are there.

You are crazy if you think the Turks will attack us and before you go "trump says you pulling out".

Still here, no one left, believe it when it happens not because a politician said it's going to happen.

Take a reality check, the withdrawal began earlier this year. Time when the US government could spread fear over the world is over. The alliance Russia-Syria-Iran-Iraq has grown too strong and now the time has come for US MIC to fear world sovereign governments. Because no matter how much they bribe the figureheads, they can't preven't the rise of the Eastern hemisphere. You can choose to be nuts and defend those guys, but looking at your nick you must be a smart guy

But after the equipment the plan is to reduce the personnel from 2000 to 1000 by early May and than gradually to 400 in 2020. Even keeping all 2000 would hardly be stopping Turkey from anything. There've been skirmishes around Manbij for years now, on FSA side Turks and on YPG US. If the US doesn't back off, Erdogan can stop buying US arms and MIC will say goodbye Trump, next please

GarryB wrote:This issue of Iranian oil exports is coming to a head... so if conflict does not start there it will likely start somewhere else where Iran could justify attacks on Kurdish terrorists on their border and ask Russia and Syria and Iraq for help in dealing with these criminals.

Russia is in the Middle East to stabilize the situation. Not create more conflicts. They are ultimately balancing a lot of interests in the area (Turkey, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and others) And real negotiation does not take days to accomplish.

Ultimately, conflict and the use of force is a quick 'bandage' on the real problem. The underlying issue will not disappear and unless you meant to kill the entire ethnic population you're not going to accomplish anything in the long term. You can bullshit yourself into believing your own lies, though look where this kind of mentality brought the Middle East to. Hezbollah is increasingly popular in Lebanon, Syria's still there and hates Israeli guts, Iran isn't going anywhere. Even if these countries would be defeated on the surface. They would simply vanish into the mountains and plan a resurgence. Look how well the US war against the Taliban is going.

Additionally the United States simply do not understand Arabs. They will never submit to the rule of a Kurdish majority or minority. Tribalism is a live and well in the Middle East and it will not disappear for decades to come, which is why current Arab factions in SDF territories are protesting against them. Various factions have seen that reconciliation is possible and work towards that has already begun, with Russian diplomats helping the process along. Several rebel factions that fought against Russia, now demand Russians are guarantors of the deal - which would unlikely happen if they viewed them as untrustworthy.

The issue of Iran blocking the Straits of Hormuz if oil exports stop is drastically under-reported because it would effectively start a war between them and the United States. People delude themselves into thinking it will not happen, but to quote Patrick Lang:

Question: Would you care to share your view about what would happen if Iran were to attempt to block the Straight of Hormuz?

Answer: The US Navy would be ordered to clear the blockage. It would be a joint operation under CENTCOM.

... and this is exactly the goal of Israel. They *need* conflict. The United States *needs* conflict. Russia does not... there is a reason why their entire military is built up from a defensive standpoint, rather than offensive.

Oh and the simple reality is that whilst the US Navy *could* and likely *would* take casualties. It wouldn't be as terrible as most people believe. As long as they're able to hit Iranian ballistic missiles in their first strike, the amount of damage they would receive would be limited and Iranian air-defenses aren't going to do well in an area that is filled with mountains. It is simple reality.

You want this to be true, so you're believing it.

I've tried to move this away from believer-nonbeliever religion quoting US official position. Since facts don't support your stance, I understand you don't want a debate based on arguments.

Trump says lots of things that don't happen. The guy has a habit of talking out his ass like all suits do, no one ever pulled out in the end just like I said.

Yeah, politicians are two faced , but we are approaching an election period and Trump might decide he needs to follow through on some of his election promises if he wants to get back in...

just saying Assad isn't getting back those kurd areas unless we permit it.

How French of you to say it like that...

I could give a rats ass what happens to the Kurds, I am not some savior. So don't try and argue morality with me.

Why would I talk to an American soldier about morality?

You realize Iran and Syria do not share a border right, there is this country called Iraq between them.

Yeah, the French and British drew those lines in the region based on known oil reserves after Germany got kicked out of the colonial conquest club...

Thing is that the Kurds don't respect borders.... talk to the Turks about that... think of them as mexicans if that helps... whether they are Iranian, Iraqi, Syrian, or Turkish Kurds, the Iranians would expect the US could weaponise them and use them against Iran in the case of a more serious and open conflict between Iran and the US... the US weaponises everything... news media, red cross, salvation army, the easter bunny...

The old "Kurds getting self-rule" Look Assad has said again and again and again and AGAIN it's not happening they either come back under his control or else, this position hasn't changed one bit. The only reason the kurds can even defy Assad is because of us, if we go it's either him or the Turks.

Assad has said not Kurdistan... he does not oppose autonomy for the Kurds as long as they remain part of Syria and therefore under his overall control.

but if I had to kill a Turk I would.

I am sure that is mutual...

Still here, no one left, believe it when it happens not because a politician said it's going to happen.

Hahahahaha... yeah... politicians are and you really can't trust what they say... but pretty much overnight the taleban in Afghanistan went from freedom fighters fighting the good fight, to 11/9 terrorists that need to be regime changed and exterminated... see how that works?

Russia is in the Middle East to stabilize the situation. Not create more conflicts. They are ultimately balancing a lot of interests in the area (Turkey, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and others) And real negotiation does not take days to accomplish.

Forgive me, but how is what I said suggesting Russia is creating more conflicts... indeed how could that even be possible in that region?

If Russia can unite Turkey and Iran and Syria and Iraq by making the Kurds the bad guys... why not? The Kurds are allies with the Americans, they are part of the problem. If there was some magical way to make everyone happy... well good luck finding that... you are deluded if you expect Russia to manage that.

Ultimately, conflict and the use of force is a quick 'bandage' on the real problem.

In this region it is really the only cure applied to any problem.

The underlying issue will not disappear and unless you meant to kill the entire ethnic population you're not going to accomplish anything in the long term.

Why should Russia expect to fix everything in the region forever?

Their primary concern was the concerted effort to turn Syria into what has happened in Libya and that is pretty much sorted out... there are a few problems left to deal with but the syrian armed forces have come along in leaps and bounds need rather less direct support to get the job done.

You can bullshit yourself into believing your own lies, though look where this kind of mentality brought the Middle East to.

Which lies specifically?

Hezbollah is increasingly popular in Lebanon, Syria's still there and hates Israeli guts, Iran isn't going anywhere.

Democracy baby... Hezbollah has ever right to exist... you reap what you sow... and when you act like a every day like Israel does then that is the natural reaction. You can call them terrorists all you want but that is the sort of violence and terrorism that the state of Israel was created by.

Why should Syria even like Israel, and where should Iran go in your opinion?

Even if these countries would be defeated on the surface. They would simply vanish into the mountains and plan a resurgence. Look how well the US war against the Taliban is going.

It is the US and Israel with the support from Saudi Arabia that are trying to make countries disappear like Libya and Iraq and Syria but ultimately Iran... they are the ones believing their own lies.

Hezbullah are innocent little kittens compared with ISIS created by the US and Saudi Arabia from the Baathist Sunnis in Iraq ousted from power when Saddam was murdered...

Additionally the United States simply do not understand Arabs.

They understand all too well... they know if they keep them fighting each other then they wont notice the west screwing them over for their oil reserves, and it also keeps them from ejecting a certain Jewish terrorist state from within their midst... if there was no oil in the region they could care less about the place.

They will never submit to the rule of a Kurdish majority or minority. Tribalism is a live and well in the Middle East and it will not disappear for decades to come, which is why current Arab factions in SDF territories are protesting against them.

The US applies a divide and conquer policy, but a united kurdistan suits them because it would split Iran and syria... which they want broken up, and they really don't care about Turkey or Iraq so that would be acceptable damage... for America.

Various factions have seen that reconciliation is possible and work towards that has already begun, with Russian diplomats helping the process along. Several rebel factions that fought against Russia, now demand Russians are guarantors of the deal - which would unlikely happen if they viewed them as untrustworthy.

And how long will it last... he said she said and then it is all on again.

The issue of Iran blocking the Straits of Hormuz if oil exports stop is drastically under-reported because it would effectively start a war between them and the United States. People delude themselves into thinking it will not happen, but to quote Patrick Lang:

For the western media it is like a bee with a sting... they think the bee wont sting them because if the bee stings them it will die... what they don't realise is that a bee will defend itself if it thinks it needs to... it perhaps doesn't know about the consequences or doesn't care.

... and this is exactly the goal of Israel. They *need* conflict. The United States *needs* conflict. Russia does not... there is a reason why their entire military is built up from a defensive standpoint, rather than offensive.

It is not in Russian or Iranian control... this is not Moscow or Iran saying... hey.... just for fun lets block this stretch of water and see what happens.

This is the US imposing an illegal act of war economic sanction on Iran and this escalation is their best response... you can try to blame anyone else you like but this is Trumps fault.

Oh and the simple reality is that whilst the US Navy *could* and likely *would* take casualties. It wouldn't be as terrible as most people believe. As long as they're able to hit Iranian ballistic missiles in their first strike, the amount of damage they would receive would be limited and Iranian air-defenses aren't going to do well in an area that is filled with mountains. It is simple reality.

I think you under estimate the Iranians... I would expect US bases all through the region would be under threat from Iranian ballistic missiles... not all of which are enormous rockets launched from a big launch pad in the mountains.

That's like saying the turks will attack Russian forces in syria which no they never would, and I mean really go after them because they refused to move.

Except why would Turkey do that... Russia is not supporting terrorists like you are.

He is just using that fact to act like he is pulling out to win him popularity among voters, it is nothing by fraud designed to trick the average mind into thinking he is doing what he promised when really he isn't.

And when a democratic candidate calls him on it you might find yourself pulled out over night...

New Hama offensive underway

https://twitter.com/i/status/1123117979401691137

verkhoturye51 wrote:

You want this to be true, so you're believing it.

I've tried to move this away from believer-nonbeliever religion quoting US official position. Since facts don't support your stance, I understand you don't want a debate based on arguments.

Pretty sure the only evidence that's needed is that the U.S is in Syria controlling 1/3 of the country, a key region of Syria for the production of oil and that after all the smoke and mirrors, U.S troops are staying.

Don't talk big game when you're just a kid on a playground trying to act like an adult. There are countless remarks by individuals within the administration, Pentagon/CENTCOM attesting to the American "presence" staying. And in the end, it has been proven, that Trump can and will be co-opted.

IF no one puts costs on the Americans to leave (and so far the only one has been bilateral tension with Turkey), then they have no reason to leave Syria to its enemies (Russia/Syria/Iran). Syria, Russia and Iran have not dared touch American troops and claims, nor impose costs on the Americans directly. As such, the cost of their presence is merely bickering with an "ally" - which they are trying to maneuver around. American strategists will take that anyday...

Use of force is still KING. Merely asking for them to leave and talk about "illegal occupation/international law" won't get it done. Nor praying for Trump to trash the work of American strategists overnight for a campaign "promise" at home which has already been broken beyond recognition by the man himself.

Please....

The Astana trilateral summit(s) have become toothless, merely spectators at the mercy of America's decisions. Americans have called bluff and they've hit the jackpot.

Use of force is still KING.

And yet all the bombs in the Afghanistan didn't help and the US is exhausted trying to find a way out. Either win swift victory or go home cry. Grow up...

Russian long-term strategy is smarter than this. Everybody knows the US isn't staying in Syria forever. So the Kurds know it's either Erdogan or Assad and that's why there's been strong and consistent rapprochement with government. That question is solved, nobody is talking about Kurds or the US anymore. Assad has won, if you haven't noticed. Erdogan and Putin remain at the table, when they solve Idlib question it's sayonara for the US.

And, oh, since chain of command in the US army doesn't work, perhaps they can make a pool among top brass to see how many endorse Trump's Syexit. If it's more than 50 %, off they go. Democracy.

The U.S has been in Afghanistan for almost 20 years. That sort of occupation in a hot zone is almost unheard of in modern times. The two situations are not comparable, and while the situation there has worsened to their detriment, they're still there till this day.

If you used your neurons properly you can find that the situation you describe in Afghanistan comes as a result of the use of force by the Taliban... making gains on the ground (facts on the ground in American parlance) and going after Americans straight up.... thus proving, that the use of force is KING. The Taliban is outlasting its opponent, and applying force. There is no such thing in Syria going on right now vs. the Kurds proxy force and the American occupational force in Syria... they're literally untouchable (in the sense that none of the other players (TR,RUS,IR,SYR) have dared to move against them - unlike the Taliban).

The U.S will stay in Syria for a deal that benefits their interest - a new Kurd autonomous region ala what they carved out in Iraq many many years ago (autonomous self rule, their own diplomacy, local army etc - well known). The Turks don't want that, the Syrians don't want that, Iraq doesn't want that, Iran doesn't want that..... Russia could care less (which is a PROBLEM)... and thus you have the impasse.

The Kurd reproachment with Assad is a myth. What are you basing that on? They gave Afrin to the Turks before handing it over to Assad. The outcome of that battle was well known - the Kurd leadership wasn't surprised that all of the sudden they got beaten and lost it - there were no illusions - they made the choice knowing full well the outcome. In essence they showed their colors if there was ever any small little doubt as to what they represent. They're an enemy of the state.

They allow themselves to be used as a proxy force by the nations mortal enemies to control 1/3 of Syria, away from central government control (Assad), denying a swift end to the war and reconciliation. They're a separatists movement -  a mortal enemy of the state. What kush are you smoking?

I see the idea that cornered and left hanging by the U.S; the Kurds coming to terms with Assad will somehow signify some sort of goodwill redemption of the Kurd leadership. No, it's just a survival tactic in a war long drawn. Better alive to fight another day with the seeds planted, than dead and buried where you can't scheme, buy your time and later betray.

Yes, yes, beautiful 2 month operation to secure main strategic assets, only to suffer 20 years without any long-term vision or exit strategy. Sounds like Iraq or Libya or...

Going "straight up" against US CVNs and 6000 nukes with assault rifles would be suicide. They've used neurons instead, just like Russia gradually suffocated the US in Syria without spilling blood of a single US soldier.

The US isn't in position to go against all Kurdistani opponents. They've lost in Syria. Lost in Homs, lost in Aleppo, lost in Darra, lost in Damascus. Those 2000 people on the ground are just trying to find a way out with as much dignity as possible, clinging on democracy demands and friendship with Erdogan. If they fail to accept defeat like immature kids, I suspect Iran will treat them accordingly and deploy ballistic missiles around those guys with rifles and granades. Perhaps they can form USA inscription with erector launchers to make them feel better and admit defeat.

US is in Afghanistan with tacit Pakistani and Iranian understanding. Basically the JCPOA allowed Iran to take a softer stance on USA in Afghan Syria and Iraq. The deal is being shredded up, and if you have not noticed, with the cutting off of the central Asian airbases for supplying the troops, their presence has been whittled to a minimal amount which has no real influence on the future of Afghanistan. By antagonizing the region, I do not think US will be much longer in Afghanistan, even so the Taliban control more land than ever before during coalition occupation.

At the same time: https://southfront.org/russia-is-strengthening-in-kyrgyzstan-tajikistan-to-counter-militants-based-in-afghanistan-defense-minister/

Basically USA is stretched very thin. The weakest link in the anaconda is in Afghanistan, basically central asia. Once the center is taken out, their flanks will be isolated and a lot of their posture will change. Their center is weak, they have no way to sustain a robust presence in central Asia, without this, their bases in middle east and pacific become vulnerable. Their positions in Iraq and Syria at this point is very weak. Their east in Afghanistan is heating, and the west is surrounded by Turkey, Iran, Russia, Syria. They are basically trying to play all against each other to buy time but as differences between Turkey, Iran, and Russia are gradually resolved, the focus returns to the small american presence in Syria. To remove the American pests, it will not be necessary to attack them in Raqqah, it will be necessary to attack them on Tajik border, Belochistan border, and iran-afghan border. With the US on both sides of the levant they seem stronger than they are, oust them from central asia and they cannot hold for long elsewhere.

Basically all countries bordering Afghanistan can agree, they have enough trouble to deal with then to allow the Americans to nest easy in Afghanistan. The 20 year occupation was guaranteed by Pakistani, Iranian, and Russian permission. Basically USA flew in and out of Kant airbase with Putins approval, Pakistani ISI kept Taliban and Mujahideen controlled, and Iran was in negotiations with Obama for almost 10 years. The 20 year occupation was not because of American strength, but rather approval of neighbors to let the USA pay for peacekeeping in Afghanistan. Perhaps before Russia, Pakistan and Iran saw a benefit from leaving USA alone, but now with aggressive India and aggressive Kurds, It becomes a joint Iranian-Russian-Pakistani imperative to resolve the center of Asia without American interference. China also agrees. There is little that India, the USA, or Kurds can do to prevent Pakistan, China, Russia, and Iran from reformatting the heartland and the middle east.

"He who controls the heartland controls the world island"
- Halford Mackinder

Pakistan? I thought they supported the Talibans?

This whole world domination thing is pointless in world with strong Russia, China, US, Europe. Nobody really wants it or even believes it's possible, except maybe Biden. The US should get out of the Middle East and let those countries take care of their own business. Then it will become stronger, not weaker.

GarryB wrote:[...]

My post wasn't directed at you.

You pretty much took most of it out of context because of that misconception.

New Hama offensive underway

https://twitter.com/i/status/1123117979401691137

It's starting to increasingly look like we will see some more action in Syria.

Syrian Army and paramilitary forces that have deployed to the Idlib-Hama axis so far:

-Tiger Forces (Taha, Tarmeeh, et al.)
-4th Armored Division
-5th Corps (partially)
-11th Tank Division
-Liwaa Al-Quds
-SSNP (Mhardeh, Sqaylabiyeh units)
-Republican Guard (104th, 105th)

Syrian Military Capabilities
@Syrian_MC
·
2h
A #RuAF Tu-154 landed today in #Khmemeim AB along with 2 Su-35s

Rising the number of Su-35 deployed in Syria to 6.

Isos wrote:
Syrian Military Capabilities
@Syrian_MC
·
2h
A #RuAF Tu-154 landed today in #Khmemeim AB along with 2 Su-35s

Rising the number of Su-35 deployed in Syria to 6.

Looks like Su-35 will impose the No Fly Zone in case Americans attack to support their terrorists.

verkhoturye51 wrote:

New Hama offensive underway

https://twitter.com/i/status/1123117979401691137

It's starting to increasingly look like we will see some more action in Syria.

Syrian Army and paramilitary forces that have deployed to the Idlib-Hama axis so far:

-Tiger Forces (Taha, Tarmeeh, et al.)
-4th Armored Division
-5th Corps (partially)
-11th Tank Division
-Liwaa Al-Quds
-SSNP (Mhardeh, Sqaylabiyeh units)
-Republican Guard (104th, 105th)

Kick the terrorists ass. Trump is history. Trump is going down. Taking out the trash.

The U.S has been in Afghanistan for almost 20 years. That sort of occupation in a hot zone is almost unheard of in modern times. The two situations are not comparable, and while the situation there has worsened to their detriment, they're still there till this day.

You say that is like it is a good thing... Afghanistan is their new vietnam, but with their media being brain dead pro government pro war morons they don't have a freedom and democracy peace movement to demand they get out of all the shit holes that are killing US soldiers for no benefit to the US or the countries they are operating in.

Staying somewhere costing money and taking loses is the sign of stupidity... it is certianly nothing to be so proud of... the French left Vietnam because they knew their colonial game was up there... America thought it could do better... but after a decade or so even they worked out they were not wanted there and they had the good sense to eventually leave after murdering as many people as they could of course... normal people see the US intervention in Vietnam as a failure, and they will see the US intervention in Afghanistan as a failure too when they finally leave... the problem is that normal people don't get a say in US politics... they only supply the taxes to pay for it and the bodies to be put in the meat grinder... the MIC and weapon makers think those conflicts were excellent... their stock prices stayed strong, they produced a lot of death dealing stuff and they made huge profits... where is the next war to feed the machine?

Many Americans think the rest of the world hate them, and honestly a few that have been the victims of US foreign policy have every right to do so, but those Americans probably think it is because we are all jealous that they have such wealth and power, and that could be true in some cases, but when I see a fat person... I see a thin person who wants out but doesn't know how or doesn't have the will power and support to escape so they are trapped in a prison of their own making.

When I see an American I see someone who talks about democracy but has never had it... the margins Presidents get elected on are less than the number of legitimate votes discarded and not counted for what ever reason... and even then more people probably voted for the other person anyway... but that is American democracy... which is to say it isn't.

Some think Bernie can save you, but the way he took it up the ass last election from his own party and said thank you mam can I have some more, suggests he doesn't have the grit to make the changes that are needed. If Trump can't get his way now while he is in charge how could anyone else make any changes whether they are necessary or not.