Russian Economy General News: #10

THE TRUTH Behind President Trump's New Call For QE4. By Gregory Mannarino

Austin wrote:Let me be devils advocate and side with the CBR

The role of the CBR is to maintain macro economic stability and control inflation.

If CDR reduces the interest rate matching claim inflation of 3 % then this will significantly affect the Savers Class in Russia , Savers need 3-4 % more in interest rate over the claimed inflation rate that is prevailing in any country.

So a 7-8 % rate of interest is helping the savers save and earn more but it is not helping much the industralist who take loans and has been blocked from taking loans abroad

To take care of this the Russian government but independenly of CBR provide loans to SME and bigger industry at attractive rate may be 5 %  , The other option to stimulate the economy like the way they are doing by National Programs invesitng in Infra , Healthcare , Education etc  

Currently the CBR has to also take care of known challenges like Sanctions on 4-5 Big Russian Banks and Ban on investing on Russian Bond plus who knows what else will those Rossophopic congress will pass but also Known Unknows like  Weak Economy Globally , Rise in Debt Globally specially EU and US where Debt is out class growth roughly 2:1  , Finance Minister has already Hinted at IMF that there are imminent sign of Global Recession  , Plus CBR has to account for Oil Price Fall  in some known or unknown extraordinary circimstances.

The Russian Government as a whole gives Macroeconomic Stability and Inflation control a priority as a whole over GDP Growth , They dont want to even Increase their Debt beyond 18-20 % of GDP  in the next 6 years  ......... CBR is just doing what the Russian government priorities are.

Putin said he is targetting a growth of atleast 3 % in the next 6 years starting 2020 and 4 % if better conditions prevail.

CBR can look into rate reduction post 2020 when Sanctions and perhaps other shocks will diminish and lower interest rate of 5-7 % is possible. Assuming the Macroeconomic Stability remains and inflation is around 3-4 %

Right now CBR has a tough job and it is trying what it can i.e being conservative to prepare itself for worse days ahead.

The problem with your advocacy is that it totally ignores the behaviour of the CBR before the take over by Nabiullina and the monetarists.
When the Russian economy was much less stable (between 1999 and 2012) and the CPI hovered around 13-15% we had the CBR
maintaining a prime rate of 8.5% (look it up). Putin was in charge since 1999 and Medvedev did not leave the policy reservation.
In addition the money supply was growing about 50% per year (systematically and not sporadically).

1) If Russia was prone to inflationary instability, then the pre-Nabiullina policy would have led to hyperinflation, instead it
helped save Russia since there was sufficient injection of money into the macroeconomy so as to allow for market pricing
and get out of barter trade.

2) Annual real income growth during this period was over 10%. One of the first issues that governments deal with
is controlling wage growth if inflation is a problem. Nobody was implementing wage controls in Russia.

3) The ratio of 8.5% prime to 13% CPI or 0.65 was clearly a stable solution for Russian macro-economic finance policy

Along comes Nabiullina and happens to luck out in that Russia's economy has left the barter regime and is achieving
stability via diversification and growth of the middle class. Being a good little monetarist drone she starts to apply
developed economy tactics from the 1970s and 1980s to "control" inflation. She applies what the Bank of Canada
and others did. The jacked up the prime rate.

1) As I pointed out, and you ignored, Russia is not Canada or any other pre 1990 NATO country with a certain
species of developed by debt financed economy. Applying policies for these particular economies to Russia
is simple incompetence and not wisdom as you claim. In Canada, domestic consumer lending is actually a huge part
of GDP, totally unlike Russia, where even corporate lending is basically non-existent. The reason for this is that
the 8.5% prime rate prevented consumers and business to borrow on the domestic finance market.

2) Nabiullina simply does not have the sort of control that the Bank of Canada has over the CPI since Russia is
not a loan-debt dominated GDP economy. Giving her credit for reducing the CPI is absurd. The CPI was on
a 20 year slide to low values and this was apparent long before she and her clowns took over.

3) Russian inflation is not developed economy, loan saturated inflation. It is market price structural adjustment
inflation. When going from Soviet voucher prices to actual market prices, one gets inflationary instability of
specific type. There is no shock transition to market prices overnight. Unlike Jeffrey Sacks and his Harvard
cronies claimed, Russia did not equilibrate into a market regime in one year. It still has price transitions almost
30 years after the collapse of the command economy. You can see this in the Russian military industrial complex.
Prices are vastly lower (more than 6x) than in the developed debt-driven GDP west.

3a) The price transition inflation is not the stagnation inflation we saw in western capitalist economies in the
1970s and early 1980s. Inflation in Russia has not been due to excessive liquidity. This is apparent from
the fact that even 15 years ago, barter was still extensive and there were not enough rubles in circulation
to engage in market exchanges. Market prices are actually not fully arbitrary and local. You can see this
from the rapid transition to western+ prices for food and consumer goods in Russia during the 1990s. Even
though the population was not earning western wages, businesses were colluding to impose western consumer
prices on the Russian people. Basically, take standard western economics textbooks and throw them in the
garbage. The real world does not follow the Mickey Mouse theories of western economists.

4) As I have shown above a prime rate that 0.65 of the inflation rate is a stable regime for Russia. As of
late 2018, the CBR should have set the prime rate to 2% but instead had it at 7.5%.

Russia prior to 2014 is not the same after that , Russia has been put with so many sanctions that had this been any other country they would have collapsed the economy.

CBR managed to prevent a collapse post-2014 whether one likes it or not even Putin gives credit to CBR doing this and against odds of trying to play the game whose rules are made by Western countries and IMF that Russia has to play.

Russia is the only country in BRICS that maintains full capital convertibility and its full free floating currency post 2014 in free market economy is a detterent against sanctions and speculations or currency attack that happend in 2014.

CBR has to save the common Russian People as well as fund the industry , It has to maintain those high interest rates to save the savers else like Western countries common Russians will have to gamble its life time earning in a casino called stock market.

2 % is way to less , 5 % is what they should target for to keep Savers happy and provide money to industry/sme keeping inflation at 2 %. 5 % is also a historic interest rates as per Alan Greenspan to maintain the right balance.

CBR is very conservative in its macro economic policy , interest rates etc and that is good for Russia at the moment where Sanctions , Oil Price and Recessionary tendency is existing and would exist till 2020.

I suspect Western Countries lead by US want to make Putins tenure as difficult as possible so there exist pressure of all types that CBR has to fight some known and others unknown.

I do love when Moscow Times is forced to publish stuff like this, you can almost feel the pain...

German Investments in Russia Hit 10-Year High

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/16/german-investments-in-russia-hit-10-year-high-a65243

PapaDragon wrote:
I do love when Moscow Times is forced to publish stuff like this, you can almost feel the pain...

German Investments in Russia Hit 10-Year High

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/16/german-investments-in-russia-hit-10-year-high-a65243

Those a-holes in Helsinki must be crying now.

https://russia-insider.com/en/neocon-moscow-times-funded-nato-eu-and-state-department/ri26767

More info

This is How You fight Back the US empire..

https://www.rt.com/news/456660-pompeo-lost-mind-china-diplomat/

Americans business $$$ are left behind now in Latin America ,because China business
in communication and IT are more attractive for them.. So why the fuck Putin don't do the same?
This is how you fight the American Empire.. Not with hopes for them to "come back to their senses"
or Politeness.. but with influential Business..  China understand what is Leadership ,and was very
welcome in South America...  is busy making big business in South America , and  it should be embarrassing that China a communist state have more influence than Russia there... All that Putin can do there is sell tanks ,that very few buys , but China goes with their Highly influential technology  and everyone wants it.. Putin don't understand that for Russia to defeat US , it needs to Compete with US popular business . This is how you fight the Empire and breaks American leadership with better Business. this affect directly the Economy of US.. and their leadership position too and they hate that.. and Putin the retard.. completely miss the point... in how to deal with US.. they will never change , NEVER with politeness or with hypersonic missiles or sports medals that putin praise. Neither Putin's hockey or his stupid Judo will impress them..  The only Thing Americans respect is leadership . high tech Business Leadership , and (space leadership) the most powerful way ,to project power.. by being a better nation with better business.. and CHina is doing both , aggressive in space and aggressive in high technology business , Putin meanwhile doing nothing ,but to praise good old times ,when Russia was great.

Even Guaido the US puppet parliament speaker in venezuela , have yet to say anything negative to say from China. While Already Russia was demanded to leave venezuela... of course he is not the government.. but it shows a clear example how China is far more influential in Latin America than Russia is... since nobody is dying to buy Russia tanks in South America.. near the only thing Russia have to offer them..  Russia needs a High Tech Business race vs US.. and replace western business in any place that US is interested to dominate..This is how you destroy US leadership in the world.. and this is happening after Europe gave a red carpet to Chinese President..after Americans demanded them to not do business with China.. You can count with one hand the nations Russian business influence in Europe .. but China influence everyone. China have far more influence today than Russia ,even Trump have to stop his trade war with China ,because they do hurt US economy.. Russia under Putin is not developed to challenge US influence and leadership in the world .

Americans business $$$ are left behind now in Latin America ,because China business
in communication and IT are more attractive for them.. So why the fuck Putin don't do the same?

Russian export is actually bigger than Chinese, relative to the GDP: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ne.exp.gnfs.zs
26 % vs 20 %.

What is China exporting? https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/
50 % is electronics and machinery. This is possibly the most competitive sector of any economy. Phones, computers, cars... It's virtually impossible to enter such an industry and compete with Apple, Samsung and other high tech giants that control 95 % of the market and invest billions to remain leaders.

Russia is different. https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/rus/ http://tass.com/defense/992835
45 % is oil and only 4 % weapons! Anybody can buy oil on market exchange in Moscow. Russia ships is with tankers to South America or elsewhere. This dependency on energy exports is a curse and a blessing at the same time. When the price of oil is high, Russia doesn't need to try hard and compete with western electronics like China. Their GDP exploded in 1999-2008. But when prices drop it hurts them too much, so they need to diversify if they want their exports to rise continuously.

So, in order to expand Russian businesses in world markets, they first need competitive products. Technological products have the highest added value. Russians under Putin's leadership started developing many industries. The most important:

1. Space industry: new rocket families Angara, Soyuz 5, Yenisey will be very competitive. Even the US flies with Russian engines, because they are more efficient, cheap and reliable.

2. Civil aircraft: Sukhoy Superjet, Irkut MS-21, CR929, Fregat. They are cheap and just need few years to become more mature and reliable, like any product.

3. Vehicles: Mercedes opened new factory this year in the middle of sanctions. Agro machinery is a hidden gem with average 20-30 % yearly growth.
https://www.rt.com/business/424207-mapping-russia-agricultural-equipment-exports/

4. Civil shipbuilding: this may be hard, but they have no choice. Putin said that 50 % of USC products must be civil in 2030. In last 3 years it rose from 6 % to 15 %. http://mil.today/2018/Business24/

So steps are being done in right direction. In spite of sanctions, in spite of drop in oil price, in spite of ruble crash. If necessary we Slav people will go to factories and work for free like we did in 1945 to do what has to be done to save our country.

Except that isn't exactly all correct. Exports only account for about at best 20% not 26% of GDP as of 2018 (this was seen by previous couple of years how the exports dropped in Russia considerably yet saw little to no change in GDP numbers vs a year later).  But it's true on how much of it is oil and gas based (minerals to be exact as they lump it together). There is also a major part of that industry being ignored when they say oil and gas - that is the tech section that requires to pump, preserve and refine. Russia produces all of that on their own since 2015. And all in all, it was the domestic market that saved Russia and made it grew while hard sanctions placed on it by about 2.6% officially. Unofficially much higher.

Another market growing stupidly fast is the high tech market in Russia (next to services).  The high tech market grows considerably and even starting to export which they didn't before. Along with introduction of new robotics (auto cnc equipment/tooling) which Russia severely lacked in past few years ago because it was darn cheaper to buy German.

I find it interesting how Russia managed to sell agricultural equipment to the west when not long ago, they we're importing.

 The high tech market grows considerably and even starting to export which they didn't before.

If economics is too hard for you I'll put it this way. It's easy to increase tenfold from 0,1 % to 1 %. But this will never fuel the GDP growth or feed Russian families. The only high tech companies that RF government seriously supported were in energy and defence industries.

To achieve Putin's goal of getting RF back into top 5 GDPs, oil exports have to be increased. Quantities are fixed in oil cartel. Only price can go up if he agrees with OPEC to keep supply low.

verkhoturye51 wrote:

 The high tech market grows considerably and even starting to export which they didn't before.

If economics is too hard for you I'll put it this way. It's easy to increase tenfold from 0,1 % to 1 %. But this will never fuel the GDP growth or feed Russian families. The only high tech companies that RF government seriously supported were in energy and defence industries.

To achieve Putin's goal of getting RF back into top 5 GDPs, oil exports have to be increased. Quantities are fixed in oil cartel. Only price can go up if he agrees with OPEC to keep supply low.

I know more about economics than you do. That is a guarantee. Just go back through my posts. Plus, it's my job numbnuts.

Plus, you have no idea what you are talking about. Go to sdelanounas.ru and learn something. You will be enlightened to know development in all fields of Russia.

verkhoturye51 wrote:

 The high tech market grows considerably and even starting to export which they didn't before.

If economics is too hard for you I'll put it this way. It's easy to increase tenfold from 0,1 % to 1 %. But this will never fuel the GDP growth or feed Russian families. The only high tech companies that RF government seriously supported were in energy and defence industries.

To achieve Putin's goal of getting RF back into top 5 GDPs, oil exports have to be increased. Quantities are fixed in oil cartel. Only price can go up if he agrees with OPEC to keep supply low.

Another self-anointed economics guru we have here. Russia's GDP is already in the top 5 economies.

BTW, genius, oil and natural gas account for less than 8% of Russia's GDP and this includes both the exports and all the domestic production activity.

If you are going to post like some know-it-all then get the facts right, otherwise you look like a moron.

miketheterrible wrote:

verkhoturye51 wrote:

 The high tech market grows considerably and even starting to export which they didn't before.

If economics is too hard for you I'll put it this way. It's easy to increase tenfold from 0,1 % to 1 %. But this will never fuel the GDP growth or feed Russian families. The only high tech companies that RF government seriously supported were in energy and defence industries.

To achieve Putin's goal of getting RF back into top 5 GDPs, oil exports have to be increased. Quantities are fixed in oil cartel. Only price can go up if he agrees with OPEC to keep supply low.

I know more about economics than you do. That is a guarantee. Just go back through my posts. Plus, it's my job numbnuts.

Plus, you have no idea what you are talking about. Go to sdelanounas.ru and learn something.  You will be enlightened to know development in all fields of Russia.

What did you expect from a clown with some ugly gopnik avatar. He must hate Russia harder than all the 5th column liberats.
You can tell from all his parroting of tropes and propaganda talking points.

And he thinks China is way more advanced than Russia is in ICBMs and other rocket technology. Because...reasons.

Full De-Dollarization Ahead! Russia Becomes The Largest Buyer of Gold in World!

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

verkhoturye51 wrote:

 The high tech market grows considerably and even starting to export which they didn't before.

If economics is too hard for you I'll put it this way. It's easy to increase tenfold from 0,1 % to 1 %. But this will never fuel the GDP growth or feed Russian families. The only high tech companies that RF government seriously supported were in energy and defence industries.

To achieve Putin's goal of getting RF back into top 5 GDPs, oil exports have to be increased. Quantities are fixed in oil cartel. Only price can go up if he agrees with OPEC to keep supply low.

I know more about economics than you do. That is a guarantee. Just go back through my posts. Plus, it's my job numbnuts.

Plus, you have no idea what you are talking about. Go to sdelanounas.ru and learn something.  You will be enlightened to know development in all fields of Russia.

What did you expect from a clown with some ugly gopnik avatar.   He must hate Russia harder than all the 5th column liberats.    
You can tell from all his parroting of tropes and propaganda talking points.

And he thinks China is way more advanced than Russia is in ICBMs and other rocket technology.   Because...reasons.

Interesting he claims that. Since China's ICBMs are not much more advanced than Scuds. None of them are quasi ballistic like Russian Topol M or Yars as example. China does have impressive accurate BM's to blow up a carrier. Otherwise their BM's are rather basic but that is a good thing in itself (lower cost).

What will crash US economy?

Guys... ease up on the personal attacks... he is expressing an opinion, which he is perfectly entitled to do.

If you don't agree then you can simply say that, or you can explain why your opinion differs from his.

As for economy experts... they are everywhere and it is not often you will find any two that actually agree on anything at all...

Anybody can say this is the solution and everything else is stupid, but economics is complex and experts are surprised all the time...

There are no bans here... this is just a friendly warning... hopefully that is enough OK?

What will crash US economy?

Thanks for posting Austin, but you know what... it is interesting that much like a CNN or Fox News programme, they talk about this huge problem but there is no discussion about solutions.... just the end is nigh and we are screwed... Ahh well... if the solution is the government bails out all the american companies and just pays off their debts by printing money... will that kill the US dollar as an international currency... I mean if they just print tokens to pay foreign debt it becomes pretty worthless doesn't it?

Attacking a propagandist spreading regime change propaganda is not "a personal attack". This poor dear gets offended like
some snowflake, but his message instigates the deaths of millions. Anyone spreading the tired NATO tropes about Russia is
a fair target for "personal" criticism. Hiding behind "it's just an opinion" is not good enough when

1) these are not "just" opinions but propaganda talking points straight from the US department of state and the US fake
stream media which serves the former

2) is a species of hate speech since it is based on blood libel lies about Russia that are designed to subject Russians
to bloody revolution and tyranny to serve NATO's interests.

Perhaps this website, if it is not a honeypot operated by NATO, should make it explicit in its TOS that spreading NATO
propaganda is not allowed. NATO gets to spread its propaganda free and easy already. This website should not be
flooded with this BS. If this is not good enough for you, then change the name of the site to RussiaBashing.

kvs wrote:Attacking a propagandist spreading regime change propaganda is not "a personal attack".   This poor dear gets offended like
some snowflake, but his message instigates the deaths of millions.   Anyone spreading the tired NATO tropes about Russia is
a fair target for "personal" criticism.   Hiding behind "it's just an opinion" is not good enough when

1) these are not "just" opinions but propaganda talking points straight from the US department of state and the US fake
stream media which serves the former

2) is a species of hate speech since it is based on blood libel lies about Russia that are designed to subject Russians
to bloody revolution and tyranny to serve NATO's interests.

Perhaps this website, if it is not a honeypot operated by NATO, should make it explicit in its TOS that spreading NATO
propaganda is not allowed.   NATO gets to spread its propaganda free and easy already.   This website should not be
flooded with this BS.   If this is not good enough for you, then change the name of the site to RussiaBashing.  

Agreed. Spreading fake news as "an opinion" when facts state otherwise is nonsense and shouldn't be tolerated. Brings down quality of this site.

BTW, systematically ignoring the posting history in this thread and repeating the same bogus claims over and over
is clearly trolling. If some political agenda driven poster is not happy with World Bank data (both PPP and resource
sector fraction of the GDP), then they can direct their bile at the World Bank. Informed people do not have to
debunk the same BS over and over from clowns who do not offer any citations for their propaganda talking point
trolling.

And for those who are confused about Russia's GDP size: consider how many countries around the world run a space
program and have leading edge ICBM and hypersonic warhead technology. Russia is the only country on the planet
that is in the process of commercializing fast neutron breeder reactors. Compare Roscosmos to ESA. The EU supposedly
has a GDP even bigger than that of the USA, but its space program is rinky dink. Of course, you have to first
know something about ESA and Roscosmos.

Anyone spreading the pauper Russians starving in the hinterland propaganda is a total liar and malicious. I know
about both the Canadian and Russian hinterland. The Canadian hinterland is dirt poor with multi-generation welfare
families. This is true for the USA as well. Check out places like Apalachia which are 3rd world enclaves. And
Then we have the aboriginal reservation ghetto aspect where Canada and the USA are a total f*cking embarrassment
compared to the living conditions of aboriginals in Russia. (Irrelevant US casino tribe cases notwithstanding).
Russians like to bemoan how villages have disappeared across Russia. Well, they have been replaced by significantly
sized towns even in remotest parts of Siberia where the standard of living is much higher. It's called economy of
scale. Shipping food and goods to microscopic enclaves is not economical and only serves to reduce people's purchasing
power. Canada does not have the urban distribution of Russia and still has what amounts to lots of villages scattered
all over the place. The US is more developed in this regard, but still has a lot of tiny population centers that
have no economic viability.

I was trying to say that Russia doesn't have to develop industry of high tech electronics, because they have so many other industries... and it would be a waste of resources to try to catch up with western corporations, that are subsidized by their governments of course.

There's no doubt about their high tech in certain areas, like energy and defence and space. But how about if we try to take a look at Russian economy from pure economic point of view? No ideology, just thoughts and opinions, how it is structured and how it should be...that's why I posted all those sources...

So, if we agree to stop argueing and return back to the topic...? I will be happy to hear how do you see high tech in Russia developing in the future. Semiconductors, software etc. Especially in the area where they lag behind the West and China, like consumer products. Perhaps security concerns could be a reason to try to develop some things locally.

verkhoturye51 wrote:I was trying to say that Russia doesn't have to develop industry of high tech electronics, because they have so many other industries... and it would be a waste of resources to try to catch up with western corporations, that are subsidized by their governments of course.

There's no doubt about their high tech in certain areas, like energy and defence and space. But how about if we try to take a look at Russian economy from pure economic point of view? No ideology, just thoughts and opinions, how it is structured and how it should be...that's why I posted all those sources...

So, if we agree to stop argueing and return back to the topic...? I will be happy to hear how do you see high tech in Russia developing in the future. Semiconductors, software etc. Especially in the area where they lag behind the West and China, like consumer products. Perhaps security concerns could be a reason to try to develop some things locally.

Catching up is a term that is ridiculous IMO. You need to innovate and I like where Russia is going with its high tech development.

Currently, for some Fabrication plants (GS Technopolis in Kaliningrad, Mikran in Zelenograd and Angstrom in Zelenograd), most of their companies (MCST, Elvees, Baikal Electronics, NIISI and NTC Module) are fabless. So they do not have the overhead for trying to mass produce yet cant find sales. While the other Fabs can make up to about 32nm at best (65nm at 300mm wafers but can do 32nm on 200mm wafers in extreme cases) while they are looking to get even newer. Anyway, MCST with their Elbrus E2K architecture has impressed me a lot but I generally agree with KVS that performance of it could be ever so much better with various steppings that is missing from it. Or Baikal electronics with their MIPS processor and still working on their ARM processor. Elvees recently came out with a pretty damn good processor that can be used in various systems.

Then their software development seems to be tied directly to GNU (Linux) where it is open source. Major companies now have sprouted up with development of replacing all of Microsofts key software, to be cheaper and be used on Linux as their Linux distros (Elbrus OS, ALT Linux and ROSA) while they are working to integrate one that will work for all ministries.

Their electronics development is for very specific key areas that are important - Industrial, ministry and R&D. While majority can be done through using a Baikal T MIPS processor, the last one is ideal for heavy computational tasks. As seen with Elbrus 8SM which was recently tested.

You need to innovate and I like where Russia is going with its high tech development.

This development depends also on market size. The R&D and production is expensive, so economies of scale make it easier. When Russia started substituting foreign chips with domestic ones, it gave a boost for the development of 32 nm Elbrus. So halting imports of western chips could speed up the development of 16 nm and help domestic producers reach 7 nm standards asap.

The question is, can the government do this without causing a major short-term damage to the economy. Are the companies that rely on foreign chips enough resistant and diversified to survive the shortage? Despite possible recession, having domestic development and possibly even production on par with Intel would allow them to compete on virtually any market. But to be honest, even winning domestic market would be an achievement, unimaginable right now.

Well how about being smart and put a 50-100% tariff on imported computer chips and use the money generated from the sales of foreign chips in Russia to fund increased domestic production to meet the likely growing demand...