Israeli-Hezbollah conflict

All the f*ckwads dick stroking over Israel's brilliant pager bomb ploy are, as usual, full of shit. This attack was on civilians.

The most dangerous man on earth starts a new war, by Pëtr Akopov for RiaNovosti. 09.24.2024.

The pager attack in Lebanon was a prelude to a major war – and yesterday it actually began. Israel began bombing cities and roads in southern Lebanon – which essentially means preparing for a ground invasion. On the first day alone, about 300 people were killed, and streams of refugees rushed to the north of the country – Lebanon is preparing for a third war with Israel. The first was in 1982, the second in 2006, and the current one, the beginning of which has been predicted for almost a year, may be the last for all. Not because Israel will use its nuclear weapons, but because if the worst-case scenario develops, there will be neither today’s Lebanon nor today’s Israel.

Isn't it too dramatic? After all, Israel "only" wants to control the south of Lebanon (as it did after the 1982 war) in order to prevent Hezbollah from shelling its territory . Hezbollah constantly emphasizes that it is attacking Israel in response to the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, and if Netanyahu stops killing Palestinians, the shelling will stop. It is clear that Israel will not stop in Gaza: its goal is to make most of the sector uninhabitable and put it under its complete control. From the first day of the operation in Gaza, Israel threatened Lebanon and Hezbollah, promising them the fate of Gaza and Hamas . Israeli threats were not perceived as empty, but it was clear that a ground operation in Lebanon would be very expensive in every sense (human, reputational, financial), and therefore Israel wants to share its burdens with the United States.

To do this, it was necessary to provoke Hezbollah and Iran to strike Israeli cities (not military targets) or attack Israel from Lebanese territory in order to demand American intervention . But Sheikh Nasrallah (the leader of Hezbollah) and Ayatollah Khamenei (the Iranian leader) did not succumb to any provocations, and Netanyahu was running out of time: the internal situation in Israel was deteriorating, there was a complete impasse in Gaza (42 thousand were killed, but they were still unable to destroy Hamas or force the Palestinians into exile), and Israel was facing increasing condemnation in the international arena. Stopping the fighting and withdrawing troops from Gaza was impossible: for Netanyahu, this would be the end of his rule and the beginning of a trial, and for Israel as such, an admission of defeat. Moreover, neither Netanyahu nor Israel want to be held responsible for the genocide in Gaza. Therefore, they see the only way out in continuing the war in the hope that at some point the United States will come to the aid of its “51st state”.

So Lebanon has become an obvious and doomed victim, but this does not mean that by starting the war, Netanyahu has found the right way to save himself and his country. On the contrary, the third Lebanese war has every chance of developing into a larger Middle Eastern one. As a consequence and continuation of the genocide in Gaza, it can lead to a detonation of the situation in the entire region.

A full-scale Israeli invasion of Lebanon will blow the valve, and Syria and Iraqi volunteers who will arrive at the Lebanese front through Syrian territory may be drawn into the war. Iran will help Lebanon and Hezbollah in every possible way, but will try to refrain from direct participation in the war, fearing a direct clash with the United States. However, Israel will continue to try to provoke Tehran . The Arab street will be outraged by the new Israeli aggression, and the pressure on Arab governments will increase, and many Muslim countries may impose an embargo on trade with Israel. The Global South will begin to demand even more harshly that the West calm down “its son of a bitch,” and if this does not affect Washington in any way (because Netanyahu is playing on the escalating power struggle in the United States, during which neither side can afford anti-Israeli actions), then Europe , which is trying to sit on two chairs, will be forced to unequivocally condemn Israel. Overall, Israel's Lebanese aggression will damage the West's reputation in the Global South - because there will be no sanctions against the aggressor, nor any real attempts to stop it.

By getting bogged down in battles with Hezbollah, Israel will be backed into an even deeper corner – now, in addition to the bleeding Gaza in the south, it will have a full-fledged (even if Lebanon lacks air power) war in the north. There is no way out of this impasse – except for direct US intervention, which would allow it to inflict enormous damage on the Hezbollah army. But this option is categorically unacceptable to America, regardless of who wins the elections in November.

And thank God, because direct US intervention in the Lebanese war opens the way to a regional war: then it would be only half a step to Iran joining it and starting an Israeli-Iranian, and then an Iranian-American war. During which – as Netanyahu and American hawks like Bolton have been dreaming about for many years – America would bomb Iran back to the Stone Age: that is, use nuclear weapons (supposedly to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities). In reality, this would be a step toward a real catastrophe – and perhaps not just on a regional scale.

This is what Netanyahu is playing with as he begins Lebanon's third war - and that alone makes him the most dangerous man on earth.

https://ria.ru/20240924/voyna-1974359553.html