Russian Civil Aviation: News #3

https://www.rt.com/business/458513-russian-airline-cancels-superjet/

Russian airlines cancel SSJ-100 order

1 airline. Yamal airline. 10 SSJ's ordered now cancelled.  They claim "too expensive".  I think it's all horse manure anyway.

MS-21 can't come soon enough. Same with PD-14

Russians having some problems with their turbines. I have not heard news of Izdeliye 30, M90FRU, or PD-14 with progress. I am not sure what it is, if it is purposeful sabotage, or if they have problems with the turbine itself. I do not see the Russians not having adequate machining abilities, and materials science. I think they lack designs for fuel system and power turbine stages. Vladimir79 said that Russia had to pay Ukraine to get some designs for other products. If this is true I do not know how Russians had no past designs in their own grasp. Idk how Zorya Mashproekt ever got Russia to agree to terms where intellectual rights were only in Ukraine and not Russia. If they are basically experimenting with design of components, it will be a little while more until they can get things right, they basically start from scratch, as they might be able to reverse engineer Ukrainian turbines, but without designs, its a trial and error process and with engines it is very touchy, no fast solution. Temperature, pressure, metals, have tolerances to the thousandth in aviation.

Vlad hasn't been right about a single thing.

PD-14 was just recently transferred for a newer MS-21.

Don't make up issues that don't exist.  Only issue is Sam 146. Type30 engine for pak fa has nothing to do with this and also been transferred for more testing.

So I suggest you keep on track or keep quiet. As they say, it removes possibility to find out if one is a moron

As far as I see these engines will have same story as M90FRU, and Izdeliye 30. Idk what the problem is one can only infer.

MiamiMachineShop wrote:As far as I see these engines will have same story as M90FRU, and Izdeliye 30. Idk what the problem is one can only infer.

What issue? Back up with facts instead of assumptions

I understand they have been tested, as have Izdeliye 30 on SU-57, keep your composure. I explicitly said that I could not see them having problems with fabrication, or materials sciences. But they are obviously having some kind of issue with getting these into mass production, whether it is a shortage of experienced fabrication workers, lack of tooling, or simply the engines themselves are not displaying the 10-15% efficiency UEC wants over Zorya Mash-Proekt, which means ergo there is a problem with design.

http://mil.today/2017/Science8/

I made nothing up, my comment on problems with fuel system are conjecture I admit, but I understand from experience that fuel systems on turbines are very complex. I work around power-plants daily, although I am a stainless steel/aluminum fabricator, I have counterparts which deal with the turbines hands on. There are many things that go into it, its not a Honda motor.

I'll put it to you like this.

Russia has always had the ability to produce top of the line stuff. Issue always has been getting it into mass production.

Russia also has stringent rules on testing now for these very reasons as seen with these shitty SAM engines. MS-21 is pretty much ready. But tests will continue till 2021. PD-14 engines at same time are being tested and released for 2021. Tender now by industry and trade ministry in Russia is to expand capabilities (PD-8 and larger) as well as increasing reliability. 12B rubles allocated to it.

Marine engine production is a funny one. They produce them but they have issues between companies trying to obtain license agreements from each other. Pure industry greed from Zvezda vs others.

As for the type 30 engines, it is undergoing tests till about Midway of 2020 till they even think of low rate production.

They learned their lesson bringing something out quick doesn't really mean it's a good idea. Too bad such rules were not applied before these French engines we're allowed.

I do not doubt their ability. Where I am we have an old Russian guy who works the 3-axis and 5-axis better than any of the youngins out of school. He received his training in Russia although I would like to ask where. I know they produce expert fabricators, and have materials knowledge superior to many in Titanium alloys, Nickel-Magnesium alloys, and Steel alloys, and even some composites, a Russian company put out hydrofoil design with hull with some nice composites that top American companies do not make, or even attempted to make.

If the issue is just mass production then we must inquire as to why. I would totally understand that shortage of workers is big deal. You can't grab a guy off the street and just have him working metal, welding, bending, or operating g-coded machines as if it were low skill work. If it is tooling, I also understand although I would say I have seen Russian workshops using many extrusion machines, milling machines, lathes, and printers that are top notch. Obviously casting, molding, and smelting is daily for them too so I would say tooling would be unlikely reason. Lastly, efficiency of engines. They have tested, and they work, and their specifications and performance are great. But if they cannot get a decent positive margin of efficiency over Ukrainian engines, they won't be competitive and it makes sense to increase efficiency before starting mass production.

Issue is that you don't design then mass produce. No one should do that. Strict testing on stands for engine, then strict testing on platform designed for. Then setting up logistics as well as manufacturing for beyond single units, etc is not an easy task.

All should be ready by 2021 hopefully as long as they don't run into anymore issues.

I mean, they could probably start production tomorrow. But then what if there are fatal flaws? F-35 is example of not jumping the gun.  MAX8 had recently two major fatal crashes due to software issues.

SaM issues aren't really new. And the issues we're outlines above by another poster.  It's obvious the company who produced it we're expecting such massive orders so they refuse to ramp up production or even fix outlaying issues due to lower orders (2x500).

They can mass produce. That isn't the issue. The issue is making sure the company is ready to mass produce and has a strict line of subcontractors for necessary parts

Past showed that it was more chaotic in the equipment development and production. Now? They are demanding strict compliance in testing and development. Because crashes are not good for business. MAX8 lost a lot of orders

But they did do bench tests, and they have done tests on platforms. So then there is something lacking, which is what I basically said lol... either it is a design issue as you and I stated... turbine efficiency is not meeting +10-15% standards as UEC wishes. Or there aren't any design issues, the design is approved and they are at the logistics stages where they are looking for suppliers, but there is a lack of reliable suppliers , and there is shortage of experience which leads to shortage of parts.


So either design issue (not end of the world issue), they work, but they are reworking the turbine to gain higher efficiency over competition platforms, OR the issue lies in the logistical sense (lack of workers, which leads to slow production, which leads to lack of parts). Because they can design a test engine no problem. But not en masse without experienced labor or a design which meets UEC goals.


I agree they should not rush production, I am simply attempting to identify what are the snags in the production. There is lack of information, so I an using inference and conjecture. Its either design, or lack of suppliers. Otherwise I do not see a reason to not start production. This can all be resolved by 2021 as you stated or around the time frame. I just would like to know what it is, its interesting to me from a design and fabrication standpoint.

right or wrong?

i never said design issue.

It is a rigorous test. What part of that are you not getting? You think it takes 1 - 2 years? No. They are undergoing tests upwards to 4+ years.

miketheterrible wrote:Hence why PD-14 is desperately needed.  Safran and rest are being greedy in that they want to make sure that one buys extra engines rather than fixing the initial issue.

Sooner or later, they will be replaced.

Russia has decided to replace the Be-200 amphibious aircraft's D-436TP engines, from Ukraine's Motor Sich, with Russian-made PD-10 by ODK-Aviadvigatel (Perm). The previous plan was to use French-Russian SaM146 engines used on the SSJ-100 in the interim. 1/

Because of France's participation, SaM146 engines can be used for export orders or for SSJ-100, but not for Be-200 built for Russia's MoD or EMERCOM. As part of GPV-2027, Russia could purchase up to 18 Be-200, 12 for the MoD and 6 for EMERCOM. 2/

These orders are quite important for TANTK Beriev. The Prosecutor General’s Office estimated the cost of the redevelopment at 13 billion rubles to replace the D-436TP engines.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1116447900312186891

Vladimir79 said that Russia had to pay Ukraine to get some designs for other products. If this is true I do not know how Russians had no past designs in their own grasp.

The engines in question were soviet engines... why would there be Russian designs in competition to the engines being made in the Ukraine?

How many different engines can the F-35 use?

If the company that made the engine for the F-35 suddenly refused to supply them how would that effect the F-35 programme?

Well America knows how to make engines but what if this particular American engine was made in Texas and Texas decided to become separate from the US of A... and no one in any other state had the design plans or anyone who had ever made those engines.... why would they.. they are made in Texas... so why waste time making them anywhere else in the US?

It would take an enormous amount of time to make brand new engines from scratch... the US has rocket engines from Russia... they have example engines and they have the full blueprints but they don't make the engines themselves and if they needed to make those Russian engines it would take them 8 years.

They are trying to make new engines themselves too but that is also taking time. Doesn't the US know how to make stuff?

I think much of the issue is that the Russian government simply doesn't allow news of these projects to be released. It's nobodies business except theirs, and they could not care less what Westerners want to know. In the absence of real news, conjecture and rumour will flourish, but so what. Let the chatterers and scribblers do what they do...

I said nothing negative of their ability to make the engines. Geez ! I am talking about mass production, and somewhere in there I am talking about 3 different engines Izd.30, M90FRU, and PD-14, I know they have all been bench tested and tested on platforms. I said nothing of an inability to make quality engines. I spoke of mass production in relation to each of the engines.

-Obviously if more Gorshkov have been laid, M90FR is working out too, so they are just waiting to get into actual production

-PD-14 had been tested already

-Izd. 30 was tested, first serial SU-57 are coming into service and there is an order for more

Relax!

Russia doesn't make huge orders at once. Su-35 is nearing completion in orders yet no new orders arrived even though they said they would buy more. Issue with Al-31 engines? No.

That is a fallacy of grasping at straws. Russia makes orders when it suits them (MAKS as example for orders of aircrafts procurement. Already said they are working on second contract for Su-57).

Whats the metter with the enigines? Why insult SAFRAN here?

Both engines worked perfectly fine and were not the reason for this crash.

Mass production does not just happen... you need to put a lot of things in place before you even start because if you set up for mass production and the military in its wisdom decides it only wants a dozen Su-57s over the next 5 years then those engines are going to be enormously expensive.

Mass production works with a break even mark... if you are hand making them then a dozen or two dozen is fine but if you are setting up mass production to make hundreds or perhaps even thousands then you will have a break even number of 50-100 or perhaps more where those first engines will be enormously expensive if that is all you make.

It is the same with the F-35.... most of their cost projections are based on expectations to make 3,000 of them and they are probably faking the numbers by pretending they will be making rather more than that. What will happen however is that over time if they don't sort all of its problems out countries are going to cancel orders and the less they make the more they are going to have to charge for new aircraft to recover losses and the price projections will become absurd.

Right now they claim the F-35B is something like $125 million each... note they even talked about aircraft prices without the price of the engine included so desperate were they to make them sound cheaper than they actually were...

But with Turkey not getting their 100, and that pushing up the price for other aircraft because a reduction in the number of aircraft you divide the development costs across, then the price is going to go up, so other customers will either cut their numbers or delay the process of buying them over a longer period of time... and that messes up production and also spares support capacity so costs of everything will go up... so some countries will start to look elsewhere for cheaper options like not going for an all F-35 fleet like they were going to.

When you change numbers half way through then that really stuffs up the calculations... they originally wanted about 1,500 F-22s, but with the end of the Cold War they revised that and the USAF basically said the bare minimum number of F-22s they could get away with was 750, yet in the end they made less than 200 and the price went mental and made a lighter cheaper 5th gen fighter sound like a great idea... 1.5 trillion dollars later the most expensive weapon programme in US history... and it is not right...

In comparison... they are not making hundreds of engines for aircraft they don't have hundreds of to fit them in to is perfectly normal.

Ah, yet another thread polluted with the "Russia can't do for sh*t" troll refrain. The onus is on the trolls
and NATO fanbois to prove their case. None of you hater clowns even predicted that Russia would be in such
good shape today back 10 or 20 years ago. So just STFU. You have no credibility.

The PD-14 is an excellent achievement and in a reasonable period of time. The post-Soviet crisis can be officially
declared over. The PD-35 will arrive rather quickly. The Russia will have the full spectrum of civilian aircraft
manufacturing. NATO should crank up the brain-dead sanctions so that solid demand is created for the MS-21 and
the future widebody.

kvs wrote:Ah, yet another thread polluted with the "Russia can't do for sh*t" troll refrain.   The onus is on the trolls
and NATO fanbois to prove their case.   None of you hater clowns even predicted that Russia would be in such
good shape today back 10 or 20 years ago.   So just STFU.  You have no credibility.

The PD-14 is an excellent achievement and in a reasonable period of time.  The post-Soviet crisis can be officially
declared over.   The PD-35 will arrive rather quickly.   The Russia will have the full spectrum of civilian aircraft
manufacturing.   NATO should crank up the brain-dead sanctions so that solid demand is created for the MS-21 and
the future widebody.

The crisis for Russian commercial aviation can hardly be declared over. Aerospace sales are down 43%, the SSJ just crashed and even Russian airlines are cancelling orders. It has never been worse.

Vladimir79 wrote:

kvs wrote:Ah, yet another thread polluted with the "Russia can't do for sh*t" troll refrain.   The onus is on the trolls
and NATO fanbois to prove their case.   None of you hater clowns even predicted that Russia would be in such
good shape today back 10 or 20 years ago.   So just STFU.  You have no credibility.

The PD-14 is an excellent achievement and in a reasonable period of time.  The post-Soviet crisis can be officially
declared over.   The PD-35 will arrive rather quickly.   The Russia will have the full spectrum of civilian aircraft
manufacturing.   NATO should crank up the brain-dead sanctions so that solid demand is created for the MS-21 and
the future widebody.

The crisis for Russian commercial aviation can hardly be declared over.  Aerospace sales are down 43%, the SSJ just crashed and even Russian airlines are cancelling orders.  It has never been worse.  

Besides Yamal with 10 jets, which other ones cancelled?

Are you sure it never has been worst?

I mean, how many jets were ordered prior to SSJ-100?  SSJ-100 has over 300 orders total.  When was the last time such orders existed after Soviet dissolution? MS-21 also has hundreds of orders too.

Aerospace sales are down 43%?  Where did you get that number from?  Are you going to once again ignore my demands for sources?

Lost orders suck and there are companies in Russia that are corrupt and just looking for ways to get more Boeing hand outs.  But lets be real here, MS-21 is supposed to be the perfect jet for Russia and if it doesn't get the orders, you know why - corruption.  Simple as that.

They should just do what other countries do when there are domestic variants of the same class - massive import taxes.  Sure, buy a Boeing or Airbus.  If it competes against a local brand, just tariff the shit out of it so it no longer is profitable to screw your own nation over.

SSJ just isnt getting the numbers it should. MS-21 will not either. There is a monopoly and the Russian government needs to be more active in not only sales but demands of local aviation companies.