Russian Civil Aviation: News #3

The problem is Boeing and Airbus can offer more competitive financing, worldwide logistics, and a "risk-free" brand to the airline. As a business decision, it is a no brainer to go with Airbus or Boeing, but in terms of building a globally competitive high tech industry (that benefits the whole society), domestic production is the way to go. Aeroflot is a state-owned airline but has not always acted that way: Berezovsky used to run it and he would siphon money out to his offshore accounts and he obviously couldn't care less about Russian society. There are still many in Aeroflot management who would prefer to do things the Berezovsky way. As for other private Russian airlines like S7, well you see their decisions.

S7 was interested but who knows what happened.  But after the decision to move their offshore space program from California to Russian far east, I suspect they may get Russian jets.  MS-21 seems to be in more demand so far.

Risk free?  Wonder, what was Risk free from all previous crashes of Boeing and Airbus?

But whatever, Russians are just easier to attack. Especially when they have former Russians like Vlad to help in their arguments.

Like I said, I would just tax to hell and S7 and the rest will all of a sudden get "patriotic".

This plane didn´t fall from the sky (like some Boeings) because of a technical failure. The pilot took the decission to land with nearly full tanks = very heavy plane. That´s why it bounced back so hard and then one of the fuel tanks broke. If the lightning had struck shortly before landing in Murmansk nothing would have happened.

Austin wrote:Strange but True , Now they are saying SSJ-75 was an import substituted SSJ100 and not a 75 seater

https://www.aviaport.ru/digest/2019/04/18/585169.html


DIdnt UAC mentioned there were looking at composite wings for 75 seater ?

I think that is pretty much confusion (and I got the impression that the original info about this illogical assumption about the project comes from Komersant) - the reality seems to be as follows:

The following new models are under development:

1. SSJ100R - An SSJ100 with Russian interior and other import substitutions applied for Iran (US components being replaced) but still a SuperJet 100 with SaM146.

2. MC-21-75 and MC-21-95 - The 75 seater also called "SSJ75" and a 95 seater version. Those are full import substituted models but also aligned with the MC-21, sharing KRET avionics, a new interior in the same style as the bigger sibling, Aviadvigatel PD-8 and PD-10 engines instead of the SaM146 and a redesigned wing, either a CFRP one like the MC-21 or a metallic ditto (seems like both of them are being studied). The fuselage is similar to the SSJ100 but it seems like bigger windows are considered (cabin pressure unknown).

Some people have referred to it as "New SSJ" (same thing as when the upcoming Comet 4 was called "New Comet" until it was named). It seems like the main purpose is BOTH import substitution but also to make it part of the MC-21 family (hence the idea about the MC-21-75 designation).

The number "75" comes from the shorter fuselage (even if another article I read gave the impression that they just "named it because they had to name it something...") with similar length to the original RRJ75 and 75 seats (88 in all economy).

So everything does indicate that the SSJ100 will be "replaced" by the redesigned "MC-21-75" and "MC-21-95" but I guess they won't cancel the baseline yet but rather arrange a smooth transition (i.e. manufacture all ordered SSJs before switching to the new model). It is also possible that they decide to leverage the "SuperJet" brand name and simply name the new models the "SSJ100-75NG" and "SSJ100-95NG" or something even if I think the "MC-21-75" and "MC-21-95" are more plausible.

The first step is to get the MC-21 into production and launch the "New SSJ/MC-21-75/MC-21-95" when the PD-8 and PD-10 are ramping up, i.e. synchronize the development. PD-14 production is aligned with the MC-21 ditto, i.e. no reason to ramp up full production before the PD-14 powered MC-21 are ready since it would mean stocking up engines before there are airframes to fit them too.

kvs wrote:

RusAviaGuy wrote:

Austin wrote:Strange but True , Now they are saying SSJ-75 was an import substituted SSJ100 and not a 75 seater

https://www.aviaport.ru/digest/2019/04/18/585169.html


DIdnt UAC mentioned there were looking at composite wings for 75 seater ?

I think that is pretty much confusion (and I got the impression that the original info about this illogical assumption about the project comes from Komersant) - the reality seems to be as follows:

The following new models are under development:

1. SSJ100R - An SSJ100 with Russian interior and other import substitutions applied for Iran (US components being replaced) but still a SuperJet 100 with SaM146.

2. MC-21-75 and MC-21-95 - The 75 seater also called "SSJ75" and a 95 seater version. Those are full import substituted models but also aligned with the MC-21, sharing KRET avionics, a new interior in the same style as the bigger sibling, Aviadvigatel PD-8 and PD-10 engines instead of the SaM146 and a redesigned wing, either a CFRP one like the MC-21 or a metallic ditto (seems like both of them are being studied). The fuselage is similar to the SSJ100 but it seems like bigger windows are considered (cabin pressure unknown).

Some people have referred to it as "New SSJ" (same thing as when the upcoming Comet 4 was called "New Comet" until it was named). It seems like the main purpose is BOTH import substitution but also to make it part of the MC-21 family (hence the idea about the MC-21-75 designation).

The number "75" comes from the shorter fuselage (even if another article I read gave the impression that they just "named it because they had to name it something...") with similar length to the original RRJ75 and 75 seats (88 in all economy).

So everything does indicate that the SSJ100 will be "replaced" by the redesigned "MC-21-75" and "MC-21-95" but I guess they won't cancel the baseline yet but rather arrange a smooth transition (i.e. manufacture all ordered SSJs before switching to the new model). It is also possible that they decide to leverage the "SuperJet" brand name and simply name the new models the "SSJ100-75NG" and "SSJ100-95NG" or something even if I think the "MC-21-75" and "MC-21-95" are more plausible.

The first step is to get the MC-21 into production and launch the "New SSJ/MC-21-75/MC-21-95" when the PD-8 and PD-10 are ramping up, i.e. synchronize the development. PD-14 production is aligned with the MC-21 ditto, i.e. no reason to ramp up full production before the PD-14 powered MC-21 are ready since it would mean stocking up engines before there are airframes to fit them too.

If this is the plan, then the cost to operate the downsized MC-21 must be competitive with the current SSJ.    This seems a bit of a stretch since the MC-21 is a larger and heavier
frame.   Clipping it shorter will not work unless it is actually shorter than the SSJ.  

The "MC-21-75" is a marketing name for an SSJ based (same fuselage width with 2 + 3 seating) aircraft with similar systems as the MC-21 (KRET avionics etc). It's also called the "SSJ75". So it isn't a revival of the original 130 seat MC-21-100 but rather a way of getting import substitution done by "aligning" it with the bigger sibling (PD-8 and PD-10 engines etc).

My guess is that they will name it the "MC-21-75" in order to market it as a "family member" in the MC-21 family even if the aircraft itself is an SSJ with MC-21 derived systems and engines.

miketheterrible wrote:
Besides Yamal with 10 jets, which other ones cancelled?

Are you sure it never has been worst?

Ardia has cancelled an order for 15, CityJet cancelled 6.  Interjet has refused further deliveries and they hava cannablised most of the fleet to keep a few running.  The last of the Euro operators got rid of theirs. Rossiya is cancelling their lease on 20 SSJs over high maintenance costs.   All of this was before the crash.  

mean, how many jets were ordered prior to SSJ-100?  SSJ-100 has over 300 orders total.  When was the last time such orders existed after Soviet dissolution? MS-21 also has hundreds of orders too.

There are only 138 SSJs in operation and the order book is being demolished.  There are several Soviet airliners that did better than that.  

Aerospace sales are down 43%?  Where did you get that number from?  Are you going to once again ignore my demands for sources?

https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/231515/

Vladimir79 wrote:...There are several Soviet airliners that did better than that.

Selling products to WarPac client states at gunpoint does not sound like fair comparison

I am sure SSJ would have had much better sales if clients were given an offer they can't refuse

SSJ is first civilian aircraft Russia ever developed so any comparison will have to be made with subsequent products

Vladimir79 wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:
Besides Yamal with 10 jets, which other ones cancelled?

Are you sure it never has been worst?

Ardia has cancelled an order for 15, CityJet cancelled 6.  Interjet has refused further deliveries and they hava cannablised most of the fleet to keep a few running.  The last of the Euro operators got rid of theirs. Rossiya is cancelling their lease on 20 SSJs over high maintenance costs.   All of this was before the crash.  

mean, how many jets were ordered prior to SSJ-100?  SSJ-100 has over 300 orders total.  When was the last time such orders existed after Soviet dissolution? MS-21 also has hundreds of orders too.

There are only 138 SSJs in operation and the order book is being demolished.  There are several Soviet airliners that did better than that.  

Aerospace sales are down 43%?  Where did you get that number from?  Are you going to once again ignore my demands for sources?

https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/231515/

That article talks of military including rockets. Not just civilian. Seriously......

As well, orders are still firm at 300+. The ones you mentioned were existing non continuation of orders that was known for a bit besides the two Ardia and Yamal with Ardia being the surprise order anyway were they didn't expect it to follow through anyway.

If you read your own article you provided, it's obvious that Borisov gave reason, but I don't think you did.

Plus this ain't Soviet Union anymore baby. Better get to terms with that. As Papa said, there is no more market forcing as was on wasaw pact.

PapaDragon wrote:

Vladimir79 wrote:...There are several Soviet airliners that did better than that.

Selling products to WarPac client states at gunpoint does not sound like fair comparison

I am sure SSJ would have had much better sales if clients were given an offer they can't refuse

SSJ is first civilian aircraft Russia ever developed so any comparison will have to be made with subsequent products

Well, Tu-204. Good aircraft too but no prospect for future due to politics and of course corruption. If Russians think Europeans and westerners will buy Russian planes then they are heavily mistaken. It's better to seek out African and other state orders. But oh yes, due to sanctions it becomes hard to even get those orders. See Iran SSJ deal

miketheterrible wrote:

That article talks of military including rockets. Not just civilian. Seriously......

What did you think an Aerospace industry is? Seriously...

As well, orders are still firm at 300+. The ones you mentioned were existing non continuation of orders that was known for a bit besides the two Ardia and Yamal with Ardia being the surprise order anyway were they didn't expect it to follow through anyway.

300+ firm orders... what tailpipe are you inhaling? The backlog was 148 at the end of 2018. After losing Ardia it is 15 less than that.

If you read your own article you provided, it's obvious that Borisov gave reason, but I don't think you did.

Facts are facts, the aerospace industry declined by 43%, failure in the commercial space played its part.

Plus this ain't Soviet Union anymore baby.  Better get to terms with that. As Papa said, there is no more market forcing as was on wasaw pact.

Considering we offer airlines huge subsidies to buy Russian aircraft and most them still refuse, I guess the only way to get our airlines to buy them is at the barrel of a gun.

Firm orders stand at 301. Maybe after some cancellation, ~280

As for aerospace industry, I highly recommend you read your link. Cause I have.  When you add military orders as well as ammunition orders, yeah you can get a huge drop when orders are near completion and no new orders (yet, MAKS 2019 is not toll August) then of course you get an over inflated percentage.  That's rather common.

And whatever subsidies they give to airline companies for SSJ-100 isn't either enough or something else is going behind the scenes when airline companies like Yamal is giving excuse of "too expensive".  If importing is cheaper.....

http://superjet.wikidot.com/sales

Minus 10 from that list.

From your link

Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, who oversees the military-industrial complex, explains that the military component (and it is significantly larger than civilian) is normal. What's more are planned. Because the volume of state defense orders dropped. To decline they will continue. This is because came the "saturation army advanced technique".

"If at the peak of the Ministry of defence bought up to 100 combat aircraft per year, this figure varies from 50 to 60. Helicopters we bought for 80-90 units, and now 30-40. There is no need. The fleet has been updated. Businesses will be to serve them, support life cycle, but that's not the bulk purchase. The same situation will occur for other weapons," commented Borisov new situation.

The rest is conjecture.  I mean, you clearly are the type to make up reasons even if evidence states otherwise (you said no money but it's proven Russia has money and reserves) while article does the same. I mean, of course you would agree with such conjecture.  I on the other hand will not, thank you very much.

So instead of assumptions (acronym for making an ass of you and me) why not let us see at end of the year the final results rather than something from first quarter of the year?

I predict: a drop in aircraft production due to Russian government orders being more stringent. Things are changing and new conditions are being made. Now they want Tu-214 as smaller AWACS so expect more orders of that. Or stay negative and cynical. Whatever suites your fancy.

Oh geez that is exactly what is being said...

The real issue at hand is that you fall for typical media diatribe.  A SSJ-100 has an incident and the pilot was also partially at fault for dropping too fast.  People died.  Media goes up in arms quoting every jackass with an opinion and then makes "comparable" articles somehow linking it all the same: SSJ-100 crashes - Yamal airlines will not keep order of 10 thus that means it's because of it. No, because of something else but hey, timing in it all.

It's like the mall fire in Russia that killed quite a few.  Every article afterwards was about a fire at a building. Somehow trying to link it all when they are nothing related. Yet media played their part to get their clicks.

Yeah, the mall fire was a good one. Putler's fault, basically, as usual. "That corrupt gas station mafia state has only wasted money on aggression!!!1" When in reality the whole media circus actually showed the exact opposite. A similar fire wouldn't have been big news even 10 years, to say nothing of the 90s. But nowadays they are much less common, the situation has improved very considerably.

And apparently now some Russian ("Russian") pro-Western liberals are celebrating this incident too and spreding absolute BS about the plane. I don't get it. Shouldn't the Superjet, with its Western suppliers and all that, be a perfect symbol of "Western-led globalism" and co-operation between Russia and the West? What more do these people want? Or maybe... just maybe they actually hate Russia and the Russians?

miketheterrible wrote:Firm orders stand at 301. Maybe after some cancellation, ~280

Only if you include aircraft already delivered... which is not a firm order but a production run.  The only firm order is Aeroflot for 100 and Zambia for 1.  The rest are letters of intent or options.

Firm orders are only 101.

https://aviation21.ru/19699-2/

As for aerospace industry, I highly recommend you read your link. Cause I have.  When you add military orders as well as ammunition orders, yeah you can get a huge drop when orders are near completion and no new orders (yet, MAKS 2019 is not toll August) then of course you get an over inflated percentage.  That's rather common.

It says nothing about ammunition orders.  It is a report about Aerospace, munitions are a separate industry.  What makes you think it mentions munitions?

And whatever subsidies they give to airline companies for SSJ-100 isn't either enough or something else is going behind the scenes when airline companies like Yamal is giving excuse of "too expensive".  If importing is cheaper.....

It could never be enough as they can't get the parts to fly half of them.

http://superjet.wikidot.com/sales

Minus 10 from that list.

Most of those are delivered aircraft, refer to my previous link and that will tell you what the firm orders are = 101 and Aeroflots 100 order is in jeopardy thanks to the huge approval for them to buy 100 Airbus of different types.  They are getting 22 A350s but 74 options for smaller aircraft which could include types to replace the order for SSJ.  If that happens this plane is finished. Aeroflot is the only life support this project has.

The rest is conjecture.  I mean, you clearly are the type to make up reasons even if evidence states otherwise (you said no money but it's proven Russia has money and reserves) while article does the same. I mean, of course you would agree with such conjecture.  I on the other hand will not, thank you very much.

So instead of assumptions (acronym for making an ass of you and me) why not let us see at end of the year the final results rather than something from first quarter of the year?

The author spends the last half of the article calling the minister's comments bullshit.  The minister says we have no need of Su-57, no need to replace Soviet era helicopters or airliner based platforms.  You only read what you want to see and ignore the rest.      

 

I predict: a drop in aircraft production due to Russian government orders being more stringent.  Things are changing and new conditions are being made. Now they want Tu-214 as smaller AWACS so expect more orders of that.  Or stay negative and cynical.  Whatever suites your fancy.

You can predict whatever you want.  The fact is the SSJ is done.  The crash that killed 41 Russians is the last nail in that coffin.  The first nail was dead Indonesians, the second was down time, the third is its high maintenance costs.

The ssj was done since before the crash. Not successfull at all. Even in Russia.

Maintenance costs are normally high as it is the only jet to use the engine it uses. And it has parts from all over the world which means mostly from west where everything is more expensive than in the rest of the world while they wanted it to be cheaper than western jet. Not really logical.

Companies try to reduce cost on every detail in the planes. What did they expect with an engine that no one else uses.

Isos wrote:The ssj was done since before the crash. Not successfull at all. Even in Russia.

Maintenance costs are normally high as it is the only jet to use the engine it uses. And it has parts from all over the world which means mostly from west where everything is more expensive than in the rest of the world while they wanted it to be cheaper than western jet. Not really logical.

Companies try to reduce cost on every detail in the planes. What did they expect with an engine that no one else uses.

Well, the funny things is that now western jets have many Chinese components (even if normally only minor secondary component parts), to reduce costs.

Doing so, however they damaged a lot of small suppliers.in UK and USA...

Anyway, when SSJ100 project was started Russia was trying to play nice with the west. Furthermore, they did not have any local engines of.that.thrust size (only a older.generation ukrainian engine).

In.addition, the participation of western companies made it easier the EASA certification and helped Russian manufacturers to get used to standards used on modern civilian planes.

All of it was needed for a sector that was totally neglected for many years.

Now they can replace the western content.with local modern alternatives.that will be at least at the same level.of quality.

15 years ago many of these components did not even exists (in a modern version) in Russia for.the civil aerospace industry.

From that point.of view it.was a.partial.success, as it allowed the.civil aerospace industry to.jump start with a modern product and learn a lot of painful.lessons.

Without it they would not be building the MC-21.

The SSJ is a fail. The MC-21 is going to be a fail.
Fail. Fail. Fail. This is pure noise from bile filled idiots.

If they put foreign engines and no russian companies, other than aeroflot, buy it then it will fail.

Ssj could have a chance with the ssj-75 which will be 100% russian. Ssj-100 is done. No one will buy it.

Doing so, however they damaged a lot of small suppliers.in UK and USA...

No one cares about small companies in the west. Here, in france they taxe them much more than big ones and most can't handle that and close quickly.

Western companies are in direct competition with cheaper ones from ME and asia. They have to operate the planes as cheap as possible. Don't expect them to buy a russian jet with french engines and avionics from all over the world.

Vladimir79 wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Firm orders stand at 301. Maybe after some cancellation, ~280

Only if you include aircraft already delivered... which is not a firm order but a production run.  The only firm order is Aeroflot for 100 and Zambia for 1.  The rest are letters of intent or options.

Firm orders are only 101.

https://aviation21.ru/19699-2/

As for aerospace industry, I highly recommend you read your link. Cause I have.  When you add military orders as well as ammunition orders, yeah you can get a huge drop when orders are near completion and no new orders (yet, MAKS 2019 is not toll August) then of course you get an over inflated percentage.  That's rather common.

It says nothing about ammunition orders.  It is a report about Aerospace, munitions are a separate industry.  What makes you think it mentions munitions?

And whatever subsidies they give to airline companies for SSJ-100 isn't either enough or something else is going behind the scenes when airline companies like Yamal is giving excuse of "too expensive".  If importing is cheaper.....

It could never be enough as they can't get the parts to fly half of them.

http://superjet.wikidot.com/sales

Minus 10 from that list.

Most of those are delivered aircraft, refer to my previous link and that will tell you what the firm orders are = 101 and Aeroflots 100 order is in jeopardy thanks to the huge approval for them to buy 100 Airbus of different types.  They are getting 22 A350s but 74 options for smaller aircraft which could include types to replace the order for SSJ.  If that happens this plane is finished. Aeroflot is the only life support this project has.

The rest is conjecture.  I mean, you clearly are the type to make up reasons even if evidence states otherwise (you said no money but it's proven Russia has money and reserves) while article does the same. I mean, of course you would agree with such conjecture.  I on the other hand will not, thank you very much.

So instead of assumptions (acronym for making an ass of you and me) why not let us see at end of the year the final results rather than something from first quarter of the year?

The author spends the last half of the article calling the minister's comments bullshit.  The minister says we have no need of Su-57, no need to replace Soviet era helicopters or airliner based platforms.  You only read what you want to see and ignore the rest.      

 

I predict: a drop in aircraft production due to Russian government orders being more stringent.  Things are changing and new conditions are being made. Now they want Tu-214 as smaller AWACS so expect more orders of that.  Or stay negative and cynical.  Whatever suites your fancy.

You can predict whatever you want.  The fact is the SSJ is done.  The crash that killed 41 Russians is the last nail in that coffin.  The first nail was dead Indonesians, the second was down time, the third is its high maintenance costs.

It clearly says in the article. Conjecture means to make a conclusion without having all the facts and details which this article does. Yes, they are allowed their opinion but as a member here who monitors aircraft procurement plus demands, he will have better idea than you or I. Russian MoD clearly said they need 700 fighters for their air Force by 2027. That includes the MiG-31's and existing Su-27's. They may need Su-57 but they won't rush it especially since paralay said it won't be ready till 2022. Buying en mass now is stupid. Su-30SM is going through modernization and possibly bringing it to complete part compliance with Su-35 so they won't order more till that is ready so only jet left that is ready for more procurement is Su-35.

Remember, they said they won't be buying Mi-28MN now they said they will. There is no consistent bit of info from MoD. But I trust Borisov and others much more than I do by some guy living in France or someone who writes for a paper or myself in this matter

So I also presume that Boeing 737 Max is done because of the crashes and many many more dead?