Syrian War: News #20

those turkish bases surrounded by SAA that were used to kill SAA should be squeezed and stop supplies getting into them. apply pressure on turkish forces and force Ero to do stupid things.

crod wrote:those turkish bases surrounded by SAA that were used to kill SAA should be squeezed and stop supplies getting into them. apply pressure on turkish forces and force Ero to do stupid things.

No! Why? These bases hurt nobody...okay yesterday a bit Syrians for few hours But they are no problem, because the outposts are very small, no real military base.

I think Erdogan reacted, because not he wanted but he must react. In Turkey large sections of the population are very nationalistic and very proud of their turkish tradtion. Other smaller sections are very religious, sometimes these sections overlaps...religious and nationalism. Turkey is traditional connected to Northern Syria.
And now the point... Propaganda last days was really extreme from Salafists in Syria. Endless photos with children in blood, destroyed cities etc. The mood in turkish society against Assad heightens and voices were loud to react. Yes..Turkey support salafists in Syria, but the opposite is also true, they have influence in Turkey. If you create and control an ideology, sometimes the ideology controls you!

Erdogan is aware that he can make a lot of profits with Russia and he knows that Russia was pissed of, because nearly daily Hmeimim was attacked with rockets or drones. So yesterday was a incident. Today TLF (turkish land forces) soldiers are just observing the situation and SAA is inside the western part of Saraqib! So it's more a theatrical performance from Turkey. But yes...this theatrical performance can go out of hand quick.

You don't start an invasion like Turkey did! But if it escalate it can end in an invasion.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Has I said in my edit, I believe the SAA is trying to force rebel hands, etc doing this to purely force them to divert manpower away from other areas the SAA want.

It's an old tactic but an effective one. If they do not and the Syrians seize Sarmin this means Saraq is flanked and holding the city becomes pretty much pointless.

The rebels have to react and Ero is already going "thing has reached a point where patience is no longer possible". Sarmin and Nilib falling to the SAA would just be to catastrophic for Ero and the rebels.

Stuff is about to get spicy over there

Agree. The latest reports I've seen show the SAA spreading out sideways rather than pushing on to Sarmin, presumably to reduce the risk of a flank attack trying to cut them off.

The SAA seem to be attacking between villages/towns (the defensive line locations) and then swinging round to attack from the rear, usually leaving time and an escape route for the terrorists to avail themselves of as the SAA wants to take back maximum territory with the minimum of casualties, so as little actual fighting as possible.

So at the moment they seem to be giving anyone who wants the chance to get out of Dodge, sorry Saraqib, to fight another day, before they roll it up as it looks like the Turks and their proxy forces are no match for the proper army the SAA now is. They need outside help!

The Turks are now losing their main supply lines, M4 and M5 so the SAA are rapidly moving towards forcing the Turks into a put up or shut up position. As you say, spicy, or perhaps more ominously, poison gassy as per the current Russian warnings of a false flag, dragging in said outside help.

nomadski wrote:@ KVS
It is a matter of what do  next. What policy to adopt. How to bring war to end. .

You seem to ignore that the syrian war will not end with idlib captured by the SAA..
the reasoning of yours is . when syrian army capture idlib.. then everyone will hug and kiss..
and is not the way it works.. you will end with a new war.. turkey vs syria..and with americans
backing turkey and supplying weapons to erdogan.. including biological weapons and nukes..
is that what you want?

so there is an economical aspect of the war too..  idlib have never been friendly to syria..
is a sunnistan sectarian zone and is one of the few places in syria ,that alnusra was welcome
by its people..   so there should be no rush to capture a territory ,that its citizens anyway don't like SAA there.
what the SAA will face in idlib main city ,once is captured by them.. will be a resistance from the pro turkish population ,similar to what US troops faced in iraq invasion.. they were not welcome and roadside bombs everywhere and suicide attacks..

so syria needs to retake is land in a slow pace ,with a combination of diplomacy dialogue and a big mace to hit when it is required ,and then talk again.. if you really want to end the war in syria ...by force..
Russia will have to declare war on turkey ,and fire a missile on erdogan head and its government too..  
and if he in bunker send a big army to invade it to remove erdogan and its accomplices from power..and such a war will be a christmast gift to america.. because this was the real goal of the syrian war..

to damage the russian economy.. and discredit putin popularity for failures..  this was the most important
objective of the syrian war..to hit hard russian economy.. , because they knew very well the russian army
had the capability to completely smash their rebels and even defeat turkey too... in a full scale war.
so what? even if russia "wins" the battle.. as american did it in vietnam war..that won all the battles,  they will lose in practice if their nations goes to recessesion for many years.. for the cost of the war.. of having a full army.. for failing to control and influece idlib..  US invaded iraq..captured bagdad. with a full scale army.. wasted 3 trillion dollars in the invasion. but did the war ended for them? no.. today they face major resistance ,and american bases bombed with precision missiles.. so the war have not ended.. because they have forgot about
the diplomacy ,about winning the trust of the people they wanted to control..


lost a ton of money in that war . trillions and did they earned iraq back? no.. iraq today is closer to iran and russia..  so russia will not want to repeat american mistakes in iraq.. and vietnam..


to win wars just using force.. the syrian war will only end for real ,when turkey abandon their interest to continue its hostile policies against syria.. and the only way that could happen is russia to influence erdogan to change...
or to wait for a new president ,that change their policies.. because russia had no need ,neither any interest
to start a full scale war ,over a small piece of land , to help a country ,that russian citizens ,are not connected in any way or form.. and will only protest if russian soldiers start to be killed in big numbers.. and this is what russia wants to avoid.. russia wants to defense itself in syria  , kill as many terrorist as possible ,without destroying completely its relations with erdogan.. that only will play in the hands of Russia enemies..  
capturing m5 highway make sense from economical point of view for syria and military. but capturing by force
all idlib ,humiliating turkey will be a big mistake..  a real victory should be turkey-syria and russia
to agree restore relations ... and solve their differences with diplomacy..  this will allow russia to abandon
syria and end the war for real..  because capturing idlib will not end the war... US will continue encouraging $$
erdogan to continue the fight..

this is same reasons why russia did not invaded ukraine.. they know very well american objectives in ukraine.
to divide forever ukraine and russia.. to create the most anti russian nation on their borders.. and russia
have frozen effectively the ukraine conflict.. Puting pro dialogue policies combined with force,helped him, change public opinion in ukraine and now a new government more friendly to russia than the previous one is in power ,
that is also very interested in ending the war.. but US keeps pushing it..

capturing territory never end wars if relations with bordering nations that are very powerful are very bad..
so diplomatic relations in combination of using force in self defense will play a key role in ending the syrian war.. as much as the ukraine conflict too..

We will never know if the pre-publicity kills this operation or if it never existed.

According to the Russian military, around 200 people are to take part in the new chemical provocation, and they are relatives of militants from the southern provinces of Syria.

The Russian Ministry of Defence says it has information indicating that the White Helmets group, backed by terrorists, is preparing a new provocation in Syria involving toxic agents, the ministry's center for Syria reconciliation said on Monday.

According to the ministry, a group of 15 White Helmets members arrived in the Idlib de-escalation zone on 1 February to prepare a chemical provocation, which is expected to be conducted under the guidance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly known as Al-Nusra Front*) leader, who has already engaged in the 2017 chemical provocation in Idlib's Khan Shaykhun.

"The new provocation is expected to be staged in the Maarat al-Artik settlement, with participation of a crowd, comprised of around 200 people, who are relatives of militants who have arrived in the Idlib de-escalation zone, including children, who have been previously exported from southern provinces", the reconciliation center said in a statement.

The White Helmets have delivered 400 litres of a chemical agent to the site in Idlib where they plan to stage and film the provocation, the ministry added.

The Reconciliation Center for Syria has called on all the participants of the planned provocation to refrain from carrying it out, and on the Turkish side to put pressure on the militants staying in the de-escalation zone's area controlled by Ankara in order to prevent the staged attack.

Earlier, the Russian military stated that militants and the remnants of the White Helmets were planning new provocations in the province of Idlib, with the goal of accusing the Syrian government of using chemical weapons against civilians.

https://sputniknews.com/world/202002031078218146-white-helmets-terrorists-prepare-new-provocation-in-syria-involving-toxic-agents-russian-mod-says/

another turkey outpost encircled..

Syria: SAA forces cordon off Turkish observation post in Idlib

@ Vann7

"........ and this is what russia wants to avoid.. russia wants to defense itself in syria  , kill as many terrorist as possible ,without destroying completely its relations with erdogan.. that only will play in the hands of Russia enemies......"  Russia or other country are all visitors. Not Syrians. So they do not face existential threat, if Syria territorial integrity is compromised. The Russians and Americans have already settled on de_facto partition of Syria. You can not call west Syria as Syria or East Syria as Syria. Only Syrians will fight and die for this " small land" in IDLIB.


"..... Russia will have to declare war on turkey ,and fire a missile on erdogan head and its government too......" No why? Russia can keep out. Like they just did. Attack on invading terrorist supporting Turks, just done. Not end of world. No nukes flying. Just another day. Minus a few rat supporters. This is now normal. The way it should be.

"...... US invaded iraq..captured bagdad. with a full scale army.. wasted 3 trillion dollars in the invasion. but did the war ended for them? no......" The two situations are not identical. Not even close. The Yanks never wanted nation building. The Syrians do want to rebuild nation. The problem is removal of religious extremists. Then civilian population free. To build life.

"..... but capturing by force all idlib ,humiliating turkey will be a big mistake..  a real victory should be turkey-syria and Russia to agree restore relations ... and solve their differences with diplomacy..  this will allow russia to abandon
syria and end the war for real..... " We can give positive role to Turkey. Instead of giving weapons to Rats. Give reconstruction money and help disarm extremist group. They can have productive and good role in Syria. Compete for influence, through peace, not war.

https://youtu.be/CWoNSADanoA

Not confirmed.



NORTH PRESS AGENCY - ENGLISH
@NPA_English
·
11 min
BREAKING

Sources to North-Press:
Turkish military has bombarded Russian military positions in the village of Kashta'ar in Sharran district of Afrin region, northern Aleppo

Yeah, I don't think so. Those artillery pieces would be destroyed.

miketheterrible wrote:Yeah, I don't think so. Those artillery pieces would be destroyed.

While I don't think the Turks fire at the Russians, it depends where the Arty sites are. So assume it didn't happen because no Turkish Arty was blown up is just wrong.

I understand the tentative from Russia to try to avoid the worse with Turkey, however now Erdogan had shown again that he is not to be trusted, he is playing the ukrainian card again (but maybe he is just a buffoon with big mouth, as Garry wrote in the other thread) and and also indirectly (but not too much) caused the death of 4 russian military advisors.

I do not know if there is a way to limit the damage. It is also possible that Erdogan will overexpose himself and have some internal rebellions, e.g. from the turkish curds...

They are already involved in at least two fronts, and continuing also increasing the provocations against Greece...

It's not easy for Russia to understand what is the best now.

Because other countries wants nothing more than a mistake from Russia like overexposing itself.

The revolution had success because of all the problems associated with the participation to WW1, and in WW2 Russia lost more than 20 millions people, so i can understand if they are cautious.

crod wrote:those turkish bases surrounded by SAA that were used to kill SAA should be squeezed and stop supplies getting into them. apply pressure on turkish forces and force Ero to do stupid things.

Why not to destroy the compound with artillery?

The SAA advance into IDLIB, can bypass population centres. And surround Big city. It looks like they can surgically target them. So few civilian casualty. What type of weapon are they using? But much more important, is that they can identify targets. This means the Rats have been infiltrated. The SAA, should now move forward. I think they got momentum. This video clip shows recent operation in IDLIB.

https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1038301/%D9%81%DB%8C%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%B4%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AA%DA%A9%D9%81%DB%8C%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%84%D8%A8-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%87

This is an historical example why proxy wars between major power will not end with captured territory .

-North korean forces tried that .. in the 10 year korean war when invaded south korea and they were pushed back.. by US forces and allies (today NATO. )
- American forces tried too that ,when they invaded north korea "to unified both" with united nations support.

What you see in next video is a 10 year war , where Russia during soviet times and China was backing north korea , and US military and nearly all today NATO forces (including Turkey and UK) backed with their armies and airforces south korea.

Korean war in 30 seconds..



1) First north korea nearly capture all south korea territory.
2)but then US and NATO allies come to help SK and push them back to the original positions..
3)Then US push a UN resolution to "end the war" to unify both koreas ,with protest of russia and china
4)organize a major alliance to invade north korea and capture it.. which they almost achieved it...until..
5)China and Russia join the conflict ,chinese in the ground and russia in the air with russian mig pilots..
dressed as koreans..  
6)then US forced pushed back to the original line by russia and china interferece and years later dancing back and forth ,ended with wasted lives and money for an war with no end..

-This is what will happen in a nato war with iran.. if they fool enough to invade by land and try
to capture it as they did to iraq.. (zero chance to happen)..

This is why is not kidding the say a US war with Iran is unwinnable ,if russia and china comes to the aid
of iran . is not like syria that is far from russia and china and is surrounded by enemies.. but just like in korean war .. russia and china can easily provide non stop supplies ,weapons and satellite information to iran ,to defend it self.. with no way for NATO to break the supply lines.. of iran and even less to blind iran radars or communications with russia backing them.. another place will be a nightmare even more than north korea ,for nato will be to fight pro russian forces in eastern ukraine.. is an unwinable war.. for ukraine even if nato comes to their aid.. donetsk will have endless supply of state of the art weapons ,fuel ,supplies and reinforcements to donetsk could continue continue flowing for 50 years if they so desire it.. there are european wars that used to last 100 years.. france and britain fought 116 years war.. ottoman wars vs europe lasted more than 600 years.
and they lost in the end.

and even though today ,nations are not so crazy to go that far and fight for so long..
a very big war of 15 to 20 years in syria if russia and turkey don't reach agreements
to stop it..

-and this could be happening in syria ,if the SAA is fool enough to think ,wars ends when territory captured..
ignoring the war can extend beyond their original borders and they could end in a very long war..of decades..

Americans and Turkey can push back syrian army back all their advances if they send a big scale army invasion to fight them and airforce support.. Russia and IRAN can do the same too and push them back again to the borders..  so when the war in korea really ended? when diplomacy was embraced... and both sides agree there was no point to continue fighting..

This is why the war against iran can't be won.. because just like they did in north korea..
they will be backing now iran with weapons and soldiers too. with trainning ,supplies and realtime
intelligence of NATO positions by the minute.. as they did to north korea and will
push back NATO from iranian territory completely.

So Russia will want to avoid , such scenario , and will try to find a common ground between turkey
and syria .

in the syrian conflict Russia is not interested in completely destroying its relations with Turkey even if
they are the ones wrong.. for aiding terrorism.. so they will do their best to avoid a major war with turkey.
because is not worth of it.. just for a piece of land , that is occupied by pro Erdogan population , and that Russia later will have to feed since syria barely can feed its own people that supports them..  so IDLIB zone will drain syrian economy because of the insurrection that will be fueled there by US and Turkey on sunni sectarian population. and then Russia will have to carry the economy of syria.. so is not on Russia interest to become a there forever in that conflict , losing soldiers and draining its economy.. for Russia and for syria too will much better will be to find compromises with
Turkey today ,to allow them rebuild its nation ,(and then later recover the land back without a war but with a new government in power in ankara..)..  capturing the m5 highway makes sense because will improve
their logistics and supply routes from latakkia to aleppo.. distance will be far smaller.. but capturing idlib
main centers ,full of pro erdogan citizens..that will be trainned to destabilize syria is not a good idea. all cities
full of pro erdogan civilians will have to be encircle and given some kind of autonomy.. because to change public
opinion of idlib population that is sympathetic of terrorist will take many years and more.. and they will be used
to cause major troubles to syria..  so idon't think is a good idea to fully capture idlib..  the fight had to be frozen
at some point to give something to erdogan ,so he save face with his muslin brotherhood supporters..

this kind of agreements , russia have done them ,many times ,many examples.. that to rebuild the nation
they stop fighting ,freeze a conflict to later deal with it later when a new government in their adversaries
country is in place..

This is why im not so enthusiastic of this syrian army advances deep in idlib terroritory , because
Turkey is not alone and is being backed by NATO and israel.. and they can push back all syrian advances in
2 years in a week.

For me a real sign of success for Russia will be Turkey ending its desire to continue fighting Syria...
and Russia and Turkey restore relations , to solve their differences with dialogue and territorial agreements..
and not allow Turkey to continue be used by US as a spear against Russia..
So not optimistic at all of SAA advances if that cause a new major war to start with Turkey and
Russia to lose completely its influence with them.. because all this advances could be temporary ,
if US manage to convince turkey to start a full scale war on syria.. then you will have 200,000 turk army
fighting the few 10k tiger forces and other 20k regular soldiers... it will be a massacre of the SAA .
and russia will have to use nukes to save from deploying a very expensive major scale russian army ,
to stop turkey invasion..

@ Vann7

Wars are a constant function of human society. Makes no difference if major or minor power. Territorial gain temporarily stops wars, or puts them on hold. Until overpopulation and diminishing resources, provide fresh impetus for war again.

@KVS

Intresting you mention natural world. But what humans do is not follow the law of the jungle. And that is the problem. They follow human rules of society. There is no war in nature. Although it looks to be by humans. Animals do struggle and compete for food and space to live. But they earn their keep, by the sweat of their brow. I guess in human terms, this translates into keeping what you earn by work.

Erdogan double downs.. now he threatens to destroy syrian army and shut down their planes (over idlib?)if don't retreat south of all turkey outpost  in one month..  

https://www.rt.com/news/480115-erdogan-syrian-troops-pullback/


This could scale into a major war if he do as he says.... but i really doubt the syrian army will retreat.. if they do that they are done.. erdogan will ask more and more until damascus is demanded to leave...  the guys is full of shit if thinks syrian army will leave its land without a fight ,just because its military invaded..

now he will be under pressure by his own draw lines .
if he go ahead and do as he said.. he will have a full scale war and with russia aiding syria....
and if he retreat.. and backdown , he will be accused by his own supporters to be weak and damaging the
image of turkey army.. so interesting developments.. indeed.. next 1-2 months will be critical for the future
of syria... i don't think either russia will even demand such thing from syrian army.. or will abandon SAA.
if erdogan gave an ultimatum to SAA for such long time , is possible either he is seeking a way out of the conflict and gain time ,or he is planning a major full scale invasion on idlib... people need to watch for the movements of artillery and army formations.. that will explain if he is indeed going to risk it all for recapturing idlib. either way..
i think erdogan popularity will sink... if it doesn't sink with close to half of the country asking for ending the war and restoring relations with syria.. it will sink his popularity with muslim brotherhood radical nationals.. who backed him..  is a bad move.. because russia can use force and kick turkey out of idlib.. just one mini nuclear strike will end all arguments of where the SAA should move.. and is not that putin did not warned it.. he did it..
putin told, during the first year in syria.. that he hoped ,not to have to use nukes.. to stop isis. this was before or after ,close to the time turkey shootdown a russian plane. in such a case turkey will be destroyed.... it will have iran and syria attacking turkey from two fronts and americans will only limit to supply weapons... Since erdogan
is unpredictable ,he is over reactive like trump and bipolar , he can be one day in good mood and the next one executing of his generals for any minor offense.

The entire syrian conflict is consequence of putin blindness ,into wanting to be a super power without having  real leadership ,or working for it.. by also having true business power and influence in the world.. this war will not be happening if putin worked since he came to power rented /privatized his oil and natural gas companies to europe and then financed a free energy revolution.. to destroy the petro dollar system and the middle east oil  business ,that is used to finance terrorism.. leaving middle east as poor as africa.. and russia had no need at all to be in middle east.. if they choose its alliances carefully ,only with countries that are close to russian borders and easy to defend..and worthy of defending.. based on russia economic and military interest. and syria is only attacked for its alliance with russia and iran.. had syria was like jordan.. a a semi neutral nation ,semi independent ,with a few american bases with no interference in us and israel interest.. then assad will have been pushed as a democratic reformist in western media.. and he will avoided this war today.. even hillary clinton ,was there in damascus , offering assad a choice ,to avoid their war . they demanded a muslim brotherhood chosen to become prime minister of syria ,and assad to become a symbolical president.. in change syria will avoid a major civil war and a war with his neighbors this was during the arab spring,.  this is indeed embarrassing to become a colony of another country but at least he avoid a full scale war...

Basically clinton -democrats plan was to resurrect the ottoman empire , make turkey a super power in the zone
and use alqaeda and isis as a trojan horse for nato invasions..and push turkey into a full scale war with russia that still they are not far from achieving this.. and there was also secondary objectives too.. which was israel desires to isolate iran from syria and lebanon and destroy hezbolah and once syria disbanded move to iran.

Putin disastrous reactionary foreign policy ,that don't prevent conflicts.. and wait for things to be bad to react.. is responsible for the chaos in syria ,for encouraging weak nations that alone can't defend properly themselves.. to fight for independence ,knowing they will become targets of NATO and israel for following Russia and that russia can't properly protect them ,as they deserve.. there. The first thing a responsible president should do ,when is in power, is understand the limitations of its country and develop policies ,based on those limits ,that they will have opportunities to work with them..  this is why i don't see a long future for Russia as long putin is in power ,he don't use force against adversaries when attacked  , neither fight with military ,neither fight with superior business  .
he have chosen the most laziest way possible ,to develop Russia economy ,that just like africa ,is heavily dependent on commodities.. in oil and gas ,mining and selling what mother nature produce.. this even have been said by russia economic minister of russia dependence of this ,so he knows russia limited economy  ,and so putin hoped that US will allow them ,to become very rich selling energy to europe in peace..  

@Vann7

Couple of posts ago, you try so hard to say that Russia or Syria should not advance in IDLIB.  Just negotiate and talk about land swap. Now Erdo says he wants to attack Syria, you try hard to say that Russia should crush them. In reality the major powers in Syria will avoid direct confrontation. Each having sphere of influence and  own protectorate. So If the Syrians themselves can not unite or defeat occupation forces. Then Syria will remain partitioned. However if there is wisdom in the world and sanity, then all interested in peace in the world, should help Syrians to unite their lands by any means necessary. Maintain international borders. This situation is the most stable one, for the foreseeable future. Otherwise partition will lead to ongoing instability and war. As it has done in other parts of the world. It is not working in Korea. It did not work in Vietnam or Germany or Poland. The nation state is the most stable form. If Russia can not or will not engage directly with Turkey or Yanks or Usrael. Then no reason, why Iran or Russia, should not help Syrians to unify their territory. The alternative is ongoing war, involving perhaps other states or groups or proxy forces . Here Russia can give Syria this weapon to put on head of Rats. It is mobile, acts as airforce and I think range greater than Rat anti - Tank weapon.

https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1038517/%D9%81%DB%8C%D9%84%D9%85-%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AA%D8%B4-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%DB%8C%D9%87


I think Syria is a nation. With memory of it's peaceful past. It can return to peace. They all remember Syria, before civil War of sectarian Takfiri conflict. Syria can return to this place.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.pinterest.com/amp/pin/616289530229060069/

It is not inconceivable for turkey to lose access to another 4 of their OP around the M4 and M5 motorways.

Plus a bit more it seems. They now have control over the roads.

The 5th Corps forces are on the north side of the strategic city of Sarakeb. After the terrorists found themselves in a semi-encirclement, they fled, desperately shelling Turkish army checkpoints to make scenario blaming and blame the Syrian army for it. There are over 25,000 Syrian troops in front of the gates of Idlib. A decision is now pending whether the Syrian army will embark on Binish and then liberate Idlibi or move north via M-5 outpost of terrorists to leave their well-defended positions east of M-5.



https://geopolitics.news/middle-east/saraqeb-is-liberated-more-then-25-000-syrian-soldiers-at-the-gate-of-idlib/

par far wrote:

good grief, the tinnitus claims are going to cost more than the reconstruction.

israel bombing Damascus tonight. SAA AD in action. No info on damage yet though.