The Situation in the Ukraine. #28

Russians are "aggressing" by not even being there, but virgin, angelic innocents in Kiev are only shelling civilians out
of holy charity.

Clowns who think that they are invincible because Uncle Swine-shit has their back.

It is time for Russia to teach these maggots and their patron a lesson. Let's see Uncle Swine-shit take it all the way.
He is only willing to sacrifice his idiot lapdogs and not himself.

flamming_python wrote:I don't see the need to take any Ukrainian oblasts, simply secure the rest of the Donetsk and Lugansk ones by means of the DNR/LNR army.

Personally I have not proposed to take anything. These are just escalation scenarios, in case the ukies do terminally stupid things. And of course it would not be Russia taking anything, just enabling pro-Russian and anti-regime forces to assemble and remove the Nazis from their lands.

The rest can stay in the Ukraine, that they were loyal to in 2014 when the coup government shelled their countrymen in the Donbass. Who needs those identity-confused turncoats?

Some of them didn't have the chance to organize properly like in Kharkov, others like in Odessa were brutally repressed. Donbass had their backs covered by Russia and a resupply route assured, that is nothing similar to what other regions had. It does not mean everybody there is pro-regime.

And all this will add up to all these territories being a massive a massive weight hanging off the neck of Kiev, off the West, and accelerating the economic decline of the Ukraine next to Russia and the rest of Europe, in particular serving for Russia, as a constant source of immigration to replenish Russia's own population. This is of far more value then whatever rusty outdated factories, ports, infrastructure are left in the Ukrainian east.

Rather than a weight, they are a source of resources by pillaging, looting and exploitation The oligarchs and the West are not concerned about the well being of that population, they will happily decimate them and use them as working beasts, preferably if they are of Russian origin.

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1370828390052335616/photo/1

#Ukraine - #Donbas
pro #NATO forces concentrated a large number armored vehicles (BMPs Tanks Artillery) closer to the contact lines the last week.
Turkish TB2 drones spotted
Mutual increasing shelling and small arms fire on several areas (mostly near #Donetsk) are also reported
-- GEROMAN -- I fell in love with #NATO -@GeromanAT

I was going to post that too franco, I link nevertheless one of the maps in that thread:



The guy is expecting an attack in the next hours, we will see. Given NS2 is almost ready, it is possible that US just wants to bait Russia to intervene to have the perfect excuse to stop the pipeline, so it would make sense to unleash a massive attack that the LDNR troops alone may not be able to counter.

Interesting from Moon of Alabama:

Why The War In Ukraine May Soon Resume

Several Russia watchers - Patrick Armstrong, Andrei Martyanov and Andrei Raevsky - are musing about a renewed attack by the government of Ukraine on its eastern Donbass region. The Donbass separated in 2014 after the U.S. driven coup in Kiev installed an anti-Russian government which then waged a war on its ethnic Russian east.

There have been a number of reports about heavy Ukrainian equipment moving east and other hints of military preparations. Russia has seen enough such signs to issue a strong warning:

"I would like to warn the Kiev regime and the hotheads that are serving it or manipulating it against further de-escalation and attempts to implement a forceful scenario in Donbass," [Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova] said, commenting on the statement of head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Contact Group for settlement in Donbass Leonid Kravchuk on some "radical steps" of Kiev if Russia refuses to recognize itself as a conflict side in eastern Ukraine.
...
Zakharova recalled that the Minsk Agreements clearly outline the conflict sides in Donbass as Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk. "The unwillingness of Ukrainian negotiators to recognize this fact and their refusal to find agreements with Donbass is the reason that hinders the establishment of long-lasting peace in the region," the diplomat noted.

The main catalyst for such a war is the sorry state of the government in Kiev. The country is in in the midst of a constitutional crisis:

[T]he Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) recently plunged the country into one of its deepest crises in its 30-year history. Specifically, on October 27, 2020, the Court declared that the main elements of Ukraine’s anti-corruption legislation, adopted between 2014 and 2020, were unconstitutional. In response, President Zelensky introduced legislation calling for the early termination of all Constitutional Court judges. Later, in December, he suspended the chairman of the Court for two months.

The result was widespread chaos in Ukraine’s political system. Zelensky’s actions were of questionable legality and provoked harsh criticism from all political sides. The ramifications of the Court’s decision include the cancellation of over 100 pending corruption investigations, a development that potentially could endanger future EU-Ukraine trade and economic cooperation Ukraine under the 2014 Association Agreement.

After the 2014 Euromaidan coup an 'independent' National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) was created to oversee the investigation and prosecution of corrupt state officials. The NABU has since been used by the U.S. embassy to bring criminal cases against those oligarchs it dislikes and to cover for those it likes. The constitutional court found that NABU is a criminal investigation agency outside the control of the executive branch which is a contradiction to the Ukrainian constitution.

The crisis has since escalated:

President Zelensky has now taken several provocative steps, including proposing legislation that voids the Constitutional Court's anti-corruption rulings and begins the process of dismissing and replacing those justices who supported that decision. None of these actions are supported under present-day Ukrainian law. The rhetoric between the president and the Constitutional Court is also escalating, with Constitutional Court Chairman Tupitskyi warning that the president’s actions threaten the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Calls for impeachment proceedings are being raised in the Rada, and Zelensky yet again escalated the crisis on February 3, 2021 by blocking pro-Russian TV channels controlled by Victor Medvedchuk. The legality of the latter action was even questioned by the EU, who told Zelensky that while Ukraine possessed the right to protect itself from disinformation, it still had to comply with international standards and “fundamental rights and freedoms.”

The pressure on Zelensky is growing as he tries to navigate the fine line of obeying the law as written while simultaneously claiming that the very integrity of the country is at stake. And Zelensky’s problems are only mounting, with the Cabinet of Ministers recently calling for the dismissal of the head of NABU and the IMF delaying the next tranche of financial support, in part because of Ukraine’s failure to implement a comprehensive anti-corruption program.

Polling numbers for Zelensky have sharply declined. Right wing city councils call on Zelensky to outlaw the largest opposition party. Meanwhile the pandemic puts a record number of people into hospitals while a meager vaccination campaign is failing.

A war against the eastern separatist could be a Hail Mary attempt by Zelensky to regain some national and international support.

But nothing will happen on the frontline without the consent or even encouragement from Washington DC. The Biden administration is filled with the same delusional people who managed the 2014 coup in Kiev. They may believe that the NATO training the Ukrainian army received and the weapons the U.S. delivered are sufficient to defeat the separatist. But the state of the Ukrainian military is worse than one might think and the separatist will have Russia's full backing. There is no question who would win in such a fight.

As a commentator at Turcopolier remarked:

If the US is not careful it is going to give the Russians another opportunity to show to the World their military prowess, the flexibility of their Military District system allowing multi front operation and their unfailing support for an ally. As well as potentially letting the Russians show to Europe that they have nothing to fear, if they stop at 30 miles or so and basically go back home. All whilst the US demonstrates the opposite, but then reinforcing DC may trump the World.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/03/the-war-in-ukraine-may-soon-resume.html

#Ukraine started flying Bayraktar TB2 drones
#Donbass


https://twitter.com/5thSu/status/1370808881463525377

Reporting this from Tsavo's reliable sources:

So the reasons/triggers put forward so far for the Ukrainian build-up and resultant rise in tensions are:

1. goading Russia to respond in a last ditch, desperate attempt at forcing the abandonment of NS2
2. laying the groundwork banning pro-Russian media and sanctioning pro-Russian leaders in Ukraine, signalling a return to an aggressive policy and seizing the advantage in controlling the narrative and public opinion
3. Ukraine attempting to override Minsk II, hijack the Normandy format and threatening ultimatums
4. Ukrainian leadership inspired by Azerbaijan's successful experience in Nagorno-Karabakh and plans to bet on the use of Turkish Bayraktar drones, all the while egging on the US to join the offensive (right against the border with its nuclear armed peer rival)
5. upcoming Bellingcat report, alleging the failure of Ukrainian and American special services in the planned capture of three dozen PMC fighters due to the betrayal of one of the members of the close circle of Zelensky.
6. Putin is a wicked, evil, genocidal, war-mongering villain who brutally suppresses his own citizens' overwhelming desire to elect Navalny their President

So far #6 seems most credible... according to honest and truthful Western media sources. Any others?

LMFS wrote:I was going to post that too franco, I link nevertheless one of the maps in that thread:



The guy is expecting an attack in the next hours, we will see. Given NS2 is almost ready, it is possible that US just wants to bait Russia to intervene to have the perfect excuse to stop the pipeline, so it would make sense to unleash a massive attack that the LDNR troops alone may not be able to counter.

That map is some pro-Ukr BS. All those blue crosses for the holy Kiev punitive battalions and only a few crosses for the
verminous moskal occupants in the Donbass.

GTFO.

slasher wrote:So the reasons/triggers put forward so far for the Ukrainian build-up and resultant rise in tensions are:

1. goading Russia to respond in a last ditch, desperate attempt at forcing the abandonment of NS2
2. laying the groundwork banning pro-Russian media and sanctioning pro-Russian leaders in Ukraine, signalling a return to an aggressive policy and seizing the advantage in controlling the narrative and public opinion
3. Ukraine attempting to override Minsk II, hijack the Normandy format and threatening ultimatums
4. Ukrainian leadership inspired by Azerbaijan's successful experience in Nagorno-Karabakh and plans to bet on the use of Turkish Bayraktar drones, all the while egging on the US to join the offensive (right against the border with its nuclear armed peer rival)
5. upcoming Bellingcat report, alleging the failure of Ukrainian and American special services in the planned capture of three dozen PMC fighters due to the betrayal of one of the members of the close circle of Zelensky.
6. Putin is a wicked, evil, genocidal, war-mongering villain who brutally suppresses his own citizens' overwhelming desire to elect Navalny their President

So far #6 seems most credible... according to honest and truthful Western media sources. Any others?

The anti-Russian forces are a one-note Johnny collection of losers. The same drivel day in and day out with nothing to show for it.
You would think that they would have enough IQ to figure out that all their hate propaganda is at best preaching to their own
choir. They are not winning any hearts and minds in Russia with it. As for Kiev and its war, that is a fail regardless of what
happens. The Banderastan economy is failing regardless of the "occupants" in the Donbass.

I will repeat, the NR forces are not 33,000 with no training. They are more than likely in excess of 100,000 and well armed and
trained. The idea that NR forces sat on their hands since 2015 is ludicrous. Everyone with a functional brain knew that this
day was coming. The Kiev regime mouthpieces were hollering for it for years. Putin also makes statements that are backed up
by reality and not by wishful think or posturing BS. So you can bet your last penny he was enabling the NR forces to power up
over the last 6 years.

The Ukr regime in Khuyiv and its NATzO masters are going to be in for the shock of their lives if they really think that only they
were preparing for this final solution. I am quite sure that part of the Russian plan was to fool the OSCE into underestimating
NR potential. The OSCE is an obvious NATzO spying operation. Letting it do its job would be the failure of Russian and NR forces
to do theirs.

kvs wrote:

LMFS wrote:I was going to post that too franco, I link nevertheless one of the maps in that thread:



The guy is expecting an attack in the next hours, we will see. Given NS2 is almost ready, it is possible that US just wants to bait Russia to intervene to have the perfect excuse to stop the pipeline, so it would make sense to unleash a massive attack that the LDNR troops alone may not be able to counter.

That map is some pro-Ukr BS.   All those blue crosses for the holy Kiev punitive battalions and only a few crosses for the
verminous moskal occupants in the Donbass.

GTFO.

I would say this is map from DNR and LNR and not pro UKR BS. On the map are marked ukrainian military positions very deep behind the front line, while LDNR military positions behind the line are absent, i.e. secret.

That may be, but it is not clear at all from the map. If they are going to have secret red crosses, then why bother having any on the
map at all. At least inform that there are invisible crosses on the map. Otherwise it does look like Kiev regime masturbation.

kvs wrote:I will repeat, the NR forces are not 33,000 with no training.   They are more than likely in excess of 100,000 and well armed and
trained.   The idea that NR forces sat on their hands since 2015 is ludicrous.   Everyone with a functional brain knew that this
day was coming.  The Kiev regime mouthpieces were hollering for it for years.   Putin also makes statements that are backed up
by reality and not by wishful think or posturing BS.   So you can bet your last penny he was enabling the NR forces to power up
over the last 6 years.  

The Ukr regime in Khuyiv and its NATzO masters are going to be in for the shock of their lives if they really think that only they
were preparing for this final solution.   I am quite sure that part of the Russian plan was to fool the OSCE into underestimating
NR potential.   The OSCE is an obvious NATzO spying operation.   Letting it do its job would be the failure of Russian and NR forces
to do theirs.

 

Not too laud. Let them think LDNR have only 30.000 soldiers, same as in 2014, 2015 and that they didn't improve anything. In that case surprize will be bigger.

kvs wrote:That may be, but it is not clear at all from the map.  If they are going to have secret red crosses, then why bother having any on the
map at all.  At least inform that there are invisible crosses on the map.   Otherwise it does look like Kiev regime masturbation.

On the front line positions are known, so no need to hide. Important is not marking what is not known.

I believe that Putin should force Kiev to peace or step down. But can his conventional army do this? I am not sure.

1. Still suspect this may be an attention grab by a desperate regime on the verge of collapse however
2. If it does go ballistic then suspect military action will, like Georgia, be limited to securing Donetsk and Luhansk with any further movement past their borders would just be to destroy Ukrainian military assets.
3. That being said then the main action would be from the 8th Army, supported from units drawn from the Southern, Western and Central Military districts.
4. That would give around 30 combat maneuver regiments / brigades to do the job. The Ukrainians probably couldn't handle half those.
5. This is not counting the 10 Donbass combat maneuver regiments / brigades.

The NR forces need to push the Kiev occupants back to the borders of the republics. That will be terminal damage to the regime's
fantasies of credibility. If NATzO tries to act as Kiev's military force, Russia should make it known that it will act as the NR's military's
force. The LOS will be on the border in either case.

franco wrote:1. Still suspect this may be an attention grab by a desperate regime on the verge of collapse however
2. If it does go ballistic then suspect military action will, like Georgia, be limited to securing Donetsk and Luhansk with any further movement past their borders would just be to destroy Ukrainian military assets.
3. That being said then the main action would be from the 8th Army, supported from units drawn from the Southern, Western and Central Military districts.
4. That would give around 30 combat maneuver regiments / brigades to do the job. The Ukrainians probably couldn't handle half those.
5. This is not counting the 10 Donbass combat maneuver regiments / brigades.

Indeed they are probably just trying to justify themselves in front of their Western masters, given the desperate situation country 404 finds themselves in.

If Russia intervenes, then it is not a matter of how many regiments are available. First stand off weapons would eliminate concentrations of troops + strategic infrastructure + air bases + long range AD, then air power would start degrading the rest of the AD units and hammering the ground troops, while NR units advance on the ground they would not have the conditions to assemble forces or use their SHORAD properly. Coupled with an abundant supply of ammo and intelligence, I don't think a big amount of Russian ground troops would be necessary. In fact it would be in fact a prime place to test their new weapons and doctrines, with intensive use of air power, UAVs, IADS, battle management systems, EW, PGMs etc. Asymmetrical escalation in places like Syria is a risk indeed, but close to Russia I doubt NATO would dare getting involved or they would get WWIII, plain and simple.

kvs wrote:The NR forces need to push the Kiev occupants back to the borders of the republics. That will be terminal damage to the regime's
fantasies of credibility. If NATzO tries to act as Kiev's military force, Russia should make it known that it will act as the NR's military's
force. The LOS will be on the border in either case.

Yes that would be a reasonable first step, in the case of serious, full blown hostilities. Further steps would come if for instance the ukies retaliate against Crimea or Transnistria, then they would need to get their teeth kicked real hard.