Russian Economy General News: #11

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4337459

In the context of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the Russian budget deficit may amount to 5–6% of GDP, follows from the forecast of the Bank of Russia (CB). According to the regulator, one non-working month can cost annual GDP of 1.5–2%.

“The Bank of Russia predicts a decline in GDP of 4–6% in 2020, with a subsequent increase of 2.8–4.8% in 2021 and 1.5–3.5% in 2022. Thus, the seasonally adjusted GDP will recover to the pre-crisis level at the end of 2021 — beginning of 2022, ”the Central Bank report on monetary policy says. The regulator specified that this assessment takes into account budgetary measures announced as of April 23, and takes into account the transfer of part of the Bank of Russia profit from the sale of shares of PJSC Sberbank in the amount of 1.1 trillion rubles to budget revenues.

The Central Bank expects that in the second quarter, most of the restrictions associated with the pandemic will be gradually lifted or significantly softened. “Then, in the III – IV quarters, we can expect a recovery in economic activity in terms of quarter to quarter,” the report says. In the first quarter, Russia's annual GDP growth rate was 1.5–2.0%.

At the end of the year, the Central Bank predicts inflation at 3.8-4.8%. In the future, according to the estimates of the regulator, the indicator stabilizes at 4%.

Recall that in late April, to support the economy, the Central Bank lowered its key rate from 6% to 5.5% per annum. The regulator also revised the baseline forecast. The main factors influencing the revision of economic expectations were the collapse in oil prices and the restrictive measures taken to combat the pandemic.

A deficit of 5 - 6% is less then most western countries have in a normal year.

It would be a case of looking across the economy and looking for gaps and then deciding if that gap is worth the effort to fill or if other gaps are a higher priority to fill first.

I personally think Russia should work on medicine and medical care, especially developing cures rather than focussing on treatments.

The influence potential of being able to say to Iran... we can help you, and we can provide any vaccines or cures for covid when they become available, and these are not charity, but we wont be making an enormous profit. In comparison if Poland needed help then the profit margins would be based on the number of Soviet statues they have pulled down time 100 if they want help that is.

What I am saying is that Russia needs to make progress but not piss it all away by giving it to countries that could eventually turn on Russia like Eastern Europe has for instance.

Russia needs to focus on fair trade and also not screwing the countries they deal with... Russia can progress without holding everyone around them down... but she should be careful she is not getting used.

Ukraine currently still uses Russia. Same with Baltic nations and they been fucking over Russia for decades now.  Russia never had a strong foreign policy since end of Soviet Union and it shows.  They also had plenty of opportunities to expand their economy by moving Soviet industries to Russia and build what was necessary rather than scramble now to replace all western and even Soviet tech (that was built in former Soviet countries). While better late then never, a lot of this sanctions and Covid issue wouldnt even be much of an issue if Russia wasn't busy trying to suck western schlong to join the WTO which proved to be not only totally useless, but actually costing Russia's economy (see the whole schpeel about Russian railways and buying Elbrus processors).  

Russia still has a long way to go and more hardships till they are completely removed from western influence in their economy.  Once they are, they will be fine.

And I agree, medicine and medical equipment is very important to Russia and will be a major economic driver. It was and is for India.  Next will obviously be expanding the agricultural industry as food is not only important and demand for it increases; more countries are losing prime agricultural land due to industry expansion. So Russia has an opportunity to create their own Nestle, Pepsi Co and Coke to control food market.  But of course they don't as they get western countries in to do it. It isn't expensive startup or even difficult in tech. They are just fucking lazy.

Money rules the world. It is easier for western transnationals to buy off local officials and businesses than for local businesses
to break into the market. This applies inside Russia. Russia needed and still needs protectionism as was the case for Japan
and South Korea to allow domestic industry to grow and then have enough strength to compete. But instead we have seen
free trade BS since the 1990s. The only thing that really saved Russia's economy was the massive devaluation of the ruble
forex in 1998 and similar in 2014. This imposes de facto tariffs on imports and boosts exports.

People love to smear Putin as a tyrant. This is infantile BS since no country can be run by one man. Every dictator has
an array of aligned elements in the rest of society. In Latin America we saw the upper classes and the military act in
concert to prop up juntas. Since the bureaucrats and mass media always serve the elites this mode of organization was
viable. Putin has to compete with comprador interests such as the tycoons who prefer worshiping to the yanqui Mammon
instead of being loyal and properly investing in Russia. These elite elements allow 5th column media and officials to
damage Russia even now.

Putin has to play politics and maneuver to push his patriotic agenda. Couch instant-experts on everything always just
bitch and do nothing themselves. We should be thankful that Putin and his silovik function have managed to frustrate
the big NATzO plan that succeeded in breaking up the USSR and corrupting Ukraine and Belorus. Russia was always
the prize, but they didn't get it. Recent events indicate that the patriotic faction of the Russian government is becoming
stronger and is finally removing the last major sell-outs of the compradors who ran Russia before 2000. The drop in the
CBR prime rate tells me that I am not the only one who cares about this issue and the right people are twisting the right
arms to rectify it.

Russia already has brands like this. They control the russian market. That why the western markets are predominantly closed for russian products, besides the stuff the west desperatly needs. That´s why Brin founded Google in Amiland and not in Russia = access to all of the western markets + developing countries.

Hole wrote:Russia already has brands like this. They control the russian market. That why the western markets are predominantly closed for russian products, besides the stuff the west desperatly needs. That´s why Brin founded Google in Amiland and not in Russia = access to all of the western markets + developing countries.

This is only becoming recent. Hopefully those Russian brands expand into the Asian and African market to cement its growth and demand in foreign markets.

That´s true. Just like PtG russian companies wasted to much time, money and effort to conquer western markets.

It isn't expensive startup or even difficult in tech. They are just fucking lazy.

Nothing to do with being lazy.... when companies get big they remain competitive by buying up or crushing their competitors and by constantly going in to new markets and buying or crushing competitors there too... it is nothing to do with being the best or having the best product, and it doesn't work if you are nice people, because crushing and buying up competitors is like working on the kill line of an abattoir...

If creating a multi national company was easy everyone would be doing it...

The only thing that really saved Russia's economy was the massive devaluation of the ruble
forex in 1998 and similar in 2014. This imposes de facto tariffs on imports and boosts exports.

I would say it was nationalisation of energy, and later western sanctions have saved Russias economy... energy money allowed it to grow, while sanctions applied in steps made the separation from the west gradual and less painful for their economy... now it is a much more viable entity and not dependent on oil income at all as shown by good economic figures despite oil prices that are destroying countries like Venezuela and Saudi Arabia...

Well that is the problem... local brands might be well known locally but internationally unknown... and to become known internationally they need access to international markets.

A good example would be cars... you would not know what a Lada was if they didn't market it internationally, but because they have it is now known as a car, so when you talk about the Lada SSK people think you mean the car... but of course people are stupid.

Here in New Zealand the Coca Cola bottling company basically own most of the local fizzy drink makers so L&P is a local brand you have probably never heard of, but it is sold here along with Coca Colas other brands they bought from overseas competitors like Fanta and 7UP and Sprite... 7UP and Sprite and L&P are all lemon drinks and if Coke developed them they wouldn't bother selling them all, but they sell them all here because it gives you the illusion of choice including the local L&P if you are patriotic... but the reality is that the Coke machine has chewed up the local bottling plants and now makes them itself... we don't have a local drink product anymore... except a local company called Wests... which I go out of my way to buy instead of that American shit.

Fucking finally...it's about damn time. 2% interest rates for loans:

VTB ready to participate in loan program at 2% to support enterprises

Earlier, President Putin proposed that starting June 1 a special loan program to support employment for enterprises from the sectors affected by the spread of coronavirus, as well as socially oriented NGOs

MOSCOW, May 11. / TASS /. Russia's lending giant VTB Bank is ready to participate in a soft loan program at a rate of 2% to support companies that have suffered due to coronavirus, the credit organization said in a statement on Monday.

"VTB is ready to implement a special credit program to support employment for all enterprises affected by the spread of coronavirus industries, said Russian President Vladimir Putin and involved short-term lending in the amount of minimum wages for each employee at a reduced rate of 2% per annum until April 2021," the statement said.

Earlier, President Putin, during a meeting on the sanitary epidemiological situation in the country proposed that starting June 1 a special loan program to support employment for enterprises from the sectors affected by the spread of coronavirus, as well as socially oriented NGOs. According to the President, the state itself will pay the loans of enterprises issued under the new program if employers keep jobs at 90% for six months. If 80% of jobs are saved, the state will pay half the loan and interest on it. The program will be calculated at a preferential rate of 2%, a loan will be issued in the amount of one minimum wage for each employee for six months. The maturity date is April 1, 2021. In addition, 85% of the loan will be secured by a state guarantee.

https://tass.com/economy/1155171

Hopefully they're testing the waters for permanent change in loan rates!

They could have introduced 2% loans back in 2015. The only ones who support the inflationary instability drivel are CBR and FinMin
monetarist twats. They never had a real model of the Russian economy that had any value. All their BS theories during the 1990s
resulted in the worst depression outside of war seen in history. A 60% GDP contraction compared to 25% in the USA during the
Great Depression.

It was Primakov who became prime minister around the 1998 financial meltdown who rescued Russia's economy by flushing
monetarist economics down the toilet. His economic approach is what was pursued by Putin which literally made Russia
great again (MRGA). One of those policies was to let the ruble slide in 1998 and "devalue" by 87%.

Unfortunately, no Russian economist of influence understood the difference between monetization of Soviet era quasi-barter
economics and creation of market prices, and inflation. This market price transition is still ongoing and we can see how far
behind it is in the Russian MIC. (I am not talking about reaching US prices which are pure corruption.) So all the price
increases after 1999 even if they were starting from near zero were treated as inflation which is patent nonsense. Inflation
is only defined for market equilibrium prices. So real inflation after 2000 was nowhere near 15% per year. It was likely
under 5% per year and the rest was structural price adjustment towards market price exchange. Soviet prices had nothing
to do with market prices. Of course, some sectors such as food equilibrated faster to western levels (another discussion
for another time) but clearly these prices did not go up 15% per year other wise in 10 years they would have quadrupled.
Nobody observed such food price increases between 2000 and 2010.

So today we are seeing not some decline in inflation in Russia but the approach to equilibrium of the vast majority of prices in
the economy (outside the government controlled MIC).

Do u know any brands or items that are good and likely to do fairly well outside of CIS?

You would be better directing that to someone who lives in Russia and knows Russian brands...

Indeed I would be interested in the answers to such a question too... I would like the opportunity to buy Russian products where possible...

You don't need to tell me that... I am struggling to get 5.6 x 39mm ammo here... the only company that makes it is Tula Ammo and they wont export it in the small volumes I want. I don't need a shipping crate of the stuff, though a box of 1,000 rounds would be close to perfect...

There are optics companies I have bought things from, but the problem is that often I think it is a Russian company only to find out they are actually not Russian, they are just based in Russia.

Kalashnikov have an online store, but a lot of the things I want you have to pick up in the store in Moscow...

It is almost like they don't want to export stuff...

Even chatted to a guy at a company that makes optics for a scope I wanted but the minimum order was 5 pieces. At about 600 Euros a scope, what am I going to do with 4 extra scopes that will cost me 2,400 Euros... 3,000 in total...

I don't mind buying one but not five.

Russia's foreign reserves grew in the period of 2020/03/31 - 2020/04/30:

https://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/mrrf/mrrf_m/

The upcoming crisis will root out the businesses that did not save money. They'll be bought up by more clever businessmen that saved for such an occasion.

Putin calls Russia a ‘distinct civilization’ that needs to be SAVED with homegrown high-tech

https://www.rt.com/russia/488904-putin-russia-distinct-civilization/

In an interview that aired on Sunday, Putin told the Rossiya-1 channel that Russia was “more than merely a country, but truly a distinct civilization.” Being “a multi-ethnic country with many traditions, cultures and faiths,” the nation has to maintain its status and power by nurturing modern tech, he said.

The interview was recorded in late September, but has only now been made public. It focused on Russia’s need to lead the research into technologies such as artificial intelligence and advanced genetics to maintain a competitive edge and defend its independence.

even putin now is recognizing this...    
So finally he admit he was wrong ? in his economic gas station model?  
better late than never.  

read this carefully @Garryb    jackma was right.. i was right.. and you were completely wrong..

putin ... "  If we want to preserve this civilization, we need to focus on high technologies and their future development.

So if russia wants to exist.. it needs to focus in high tech.. period...  are your listening @Garryb ? @Mike?
@kvs?  

Russia existence depends in high tech business.. are you listening now?  
i have been saying this forever.. because i understand what business influence the west..
What the world face today ,is a war of influence.. US use their very influential business to draw
nations into their orbit.. and american influential business are all of them connected with high tech..
and this is why is important for any alternative world ,to focus in high tech , to break this malign influence
the west have over the world ,that is not free ,is a very expensive alliance ,that nations need to give away
their sovereignty and total control over their lives ,if want to be part of it.



now im not asking for an apology from @GarryB  ,@kvs or @mike ,and many others. who did not agree with me ,that  putin two decades strategy on turning russia economy into a saudi arabia of asia ,a gas station is totally retarded , that depending on energy so much ,investing so much was a huge mistake ,that russia need a more advanced economy ,that Russia need to follow the china very modern economy example focused in high tech.. and  that russia should not focus so much in energy ,in fact i believe he needs to privatize that to friendly countries ,
and that the future of russia belongs to high tech ,to cloud computing , artificial intelligence.. computers and internet.. to digitalize the entire economy... and this is important because ,this allow Russia to fight back the
west ,as china is doing ,and weaken their influence in the world.. as china did with huawei and 5G. more strikes like that are need to break the american monopoly over the world development. to target intel monopoly , target microsoft , target american entertainment industry ,this is how you break ,their system , by breaking western business ,that influence the world.. the dollar will no longer be used ,when there is nothing to buy of value with that.. that you can't get somewhere else and that is better. a war against the US high tech industry ,is what russia needs.. target the US-japan-taiwan and south korea high tech mafia  with superior alternatives, counter
their entertainment industry ,their playstations. .this is how you defeat the american empire ,by defeating their influence of their business from high tech to hollywood. and their more ambitious space program. Every third world nation can sale oil , but not everyone can develop business ,that surpass the american ones or their asian mafia allies.  once you break US-japan,taiwan high tech mafia ,in semiconductors domination ,and develop a new internet at least in the asian region ,the western empire will bleed to death.. and so when they discover ,they need to cooperate with russia and china ,if don't want to see all their business bankrupt ,then only then you will see cooperation and the end of sanctions.. and the end of their so called "cold war" ,that is now hot..


So took putin 19 years ,to realize that if russia if wants to survive ,is not gas stations , not olympic bullshit or tourism or agriculture what he needs to promote..but high tech industry where the future of russia is,
  but his super slow awakening ,cost russia 19 years of stagnation of their nation development,  with miserable people in this forum praising this barbaric criminal mistake.. of allowing US to dominate in high tech industry and
putin focusing in the most laziest way possible to develop a nation economy.. that is commodities focused business , the same strategy that that third world countries in africa focus their economies.

mark my words ,privatization of russia natural gas and oil industry comes next.. if putin is serious about
this dramatic change.. because in 2014 putin he was telling all billionaires in russia to invest in agriculture ,
and he even also told he wanted russia to be the capital of sports..      all business that putin "diversified" russia economy since 2014 ukraine conflict and europe sancitons have been neutralized by this biological attack on russia and china. because tourism will be now impossible to do in a safe way ,and olympics ,who wants to hold one now ? and face the risk of another pandemic?  

the biggest challenge russia will face now ,will be biological war , he will need to seriously crackdown on social
activities on the open ,give up on stupid sports ,for many years ,as long the cold war continue with US , total crackdown of tourism , and people who wants to enter in russia will have to be put under quanrantine before they allowed to enter in rusia to be sure ,they are not infested with a new american virus surprise  ,even if they are russian citizens.. and this will break any possibility for tourism to return to russia..again.. Biological terrorism will be the new danger Russia and china will face , but contrary to russia ,that have a backward outdated economy ,that depended on energy and tourism.. china economy is miles away more advanced than the russian one.. and don't depend on tourism or in oil prices being high. so china economy can operate even after covid19.. but putin will have to the drawing board and develop a more modern focused economy.. using the internet as the platform to do international business and bypass western sanctions and of course a new internet should be needtoo.. because they will also target russia internet infrastructure too.. as long remain in their internet system.

instead of promoting big corporations monopolies  , putin what needs to promote is millions of small business ,medium business that can finalize all through the internet ,sorry @garryb you are wrong.  and the government should provide security to all this business.. high tech civilian business and or space leadership ,are the only way , Russia could  have a chance to fight back the west. but a new world wide internet will need to be done ,because they will be cut from american internet too.. ,the faster they do an alternative the better..

COVID-19 is making Vann7 even dumber than usual

WHO should add this to the list of symptoms

PapaDragon wrote:
COVID-19 is making Vann7 even dumber than usual

WHO should add this to the list of symptoms

dead braincells? He may be patient zero then.

It's not that easy to get into high tech market. Protectionism and influence plays alot and Russia has neither soft power, high tech industry, nor super cheap labour. China also doesn't like competition and especially not from it's neighbors. They would kindly ask to stop and flood Russia with cheap tech. Russia should specialise in heavy industry and it's tools. Metallurgy should be revived. Russia was very good at it. Maybe heavy machinery as well. But gates to Western markets have to opened to get good profits. I hope this economical crisis will put things aside and sanctions will be thing of the past. It hurts both sides.

Regular wrote:It's not that easy to get into high tech market. Protectionism and influence plays alot and Russia has neither soft power, high tech industry, nor super cheap labour. China also doesn't like competition and especially not from it's neighbors. They would kindly ask to stop and flood Russia with cheap tech. Russia should specialise in heavy industry and it's tools. Metallurgy should be revived. Russia was very good at it. Maybe heavy machinery as well. But gates to Western markets have to opened to get good profits. I hope this economical crisis will put things aside and sanctions will be thing of the past. It hurts both sides.

Russia does not need exports to prop up its economy.   Without them it is actually doing rather well.   Any serious assessment of individual
standards of living (e.g. accounting for rent and mortgage and other costs) substantially reduces the real wage gap.   Russia has
to control its internal market first before wasting time on export crack.

kvs wrote:

Regular wrote:It's not that easy to get into high tech market. Protectionism and influence plays alot and Russia has neither soft power, high tech industry, nor super cheap labour. China also doesn't like competition and especially not from it's neighbors. They would kindly ask to stop and flood Russia with cheap tech. Russia should specialise in heavy industry and it's tools. Metallurgy should be revived. Russia was very good at it. Maybe heavy machinery as well. But gates to Western markets have to opened to get good profits. I hope this economical crisis will put things aside and sanctions will be thing of the past. It hurts both sides.

Russia does not need exports to prop up its economy.   Without them it is actually doing rather well.   Any serious assessment of individual
standards of living (e.g. accounting for rent and mortgage and other costs) substantially reduces the real wage gap.   Russia has
to control its internal market first before wasting time on export crack.

Yeah, this is true. Russian market is huge - 146M people l. Selling a few million gadgets in Russia is a huge prospect. People like regular know fuck all about economics. Small markets like S.korea made leaps and bounds by controlling it's tech industry. Much smaller than Russia. They already are doing what Is necessary and their exports account for small % of overall economy FFS. Only about 10% of Russian businesses export