2020–2021 Belarusian protests

PapaDragon wrote:

Firebird wrote:Does anyone know whats happened to RT... or the English one?
It seems to have become a den of Neoliberal Atlantic integrationism.
Any criticism of homosexuals, America/Neoliberalism etc means censorship. ANd some of its articles are just plain daft these days.
Its about as "Russian state centric" as Shitlary Clinton.

Here's their latest nonsense saying that Belarus will basically become part of the Yankee empire.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/498296-lukashenko-belarus-sovereign-state/

Personally I think Putin should play hardball with Belarus.
And the Ukraine is still a long way from joining the Eurasian Union.

Did it ever occur to you that Russia wants Lukashenko gone too?

He has been a colossal pain in the ass and will definitely not be missed

They were happy leaving him there for a while and considered Belarus as largely a foregone conclusion as as far into Russia's orbit as Russia wanted eg Eurasian Union, Union State or total union.
Putin knew he was a shady prick. But the matter went beyond Lukashenko.
I just think Russia has been too reactive, not proactive enough. Just as with the Ukraine.
If Russia can't keep Belarus how in hell can it keep any of the other states?

Part of it was that Russia wanted Belarus as an "independent voice" eg in Eurasian Union talks, validating Russian activity in other areas.
Putin should have said "look Belarus is Russia, we don't need silly political devices like Belarus voting in favour of xyz".
I've always been a huge fan of Putin but I can't figure out the Ukraine ballsup and now Belarus for the life of me.
If Belarus fell, what would be next? The Caucuses? Or those silly Central Asia places that suck up a fortune and send masses of hachees into Russia every year just so Russia can have them in the Eurasian Union?

Time Putin gave the West a taste of its own medicine. And time corrupt FSU libtard Atlanticist Establishment blocs started fearing Russia.

[quote="JohninMK"]

par far wrote: Presumably if they broke away from direct Russian influence then Russian purchases of Belarusian goods would start to fall. Is that a lot of stuff?

A bunch. EU put confiscatory customs duty on Byelorus tractors, which are excellent and quite reasonable. Same-same on many food products. Loss of Russian market will destroy Byelorus in about two weeks.

But, never fear, Byelorus ain't goin' nowhere but directly east.

Local nationalism has a long history: 
https://www.mk.ru/politics/2020/08/19/neizvestnye-fakty-o-belorusskikh-partizanakh-srazhalis-ne-tolko-za-sssr.html

It looks like they won't avoid more bloodshed & civil war:
https://belaruspartisan.by/economic/509585/?utm_source=24smi&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=11036&utm_content=3095933&utm_campaign=12808

par far wrote:"POLISH PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS UNIT ON GUARD OF ‘DEMOCRACY’ IN BELARUS."

https://southfront.org/polish-psychological-operations-unit-on-guard-of-democracy-in-belarus/


Russia cannot let Belarus turn into another Ukraine.

"Thus, in the current situation, Poland is acting not only as a tool of the US policy in Europe, but also as an independent player with its own interests, and even as the leading country of the so far unformed bloc. And what is happening in Belarus could the debut of this union, the spearhead of which is directed precisely against Russia."

Keeping Lukashenko in power is vital to Russia, if a western puppet comes, than it will be trouble for Russia. Lukashenko will be like Erdogan, someone Russia can talk to and control to a certain extent.

If something bad happens in Belarus, than it sends a bad message to other CTSO countries and alliances that Russia is involved in.

Hopefully these fucking Poles learn a valuable lesson of not fucking around.

Belarus will eventually turn into another Ukraine, the only way to prevent this is to absorb Belarus. That is literally the only way at this stage.

It is still very possible to do, but time is certainly running out. If Russia attempts to just put a band-aid on Belarus then that country will fall out of their orbit eventually, this isn't a problem you can just put a band-aid over and expect to work its self out.

The Russians by now should have learned about their failures with Ukraine and if they repeat those failures then they are truly morons or at least the ones in charge are.

As you say this also sends a message to various Russian allies and it also pretty much makes my own country even more sure of it's self, after all if we can rip Belarus and Ukraine away from Russia, then we can rip everyone else away also. It's do or die for Russia now, will it succeed or will it flounder around wondering how it got bent over a desk, we will soon find out.

Tsavo Lion wrote:Local nationalism has a long history: 
https://www.mk.ru/politics/2020/08/19/neizvestnye-fakty-o-belorusskikh-partizanakh-srazhalis-ne-tolko-za-sssr.html

It looks like they won't avoid more bloodshed & civil war:
https://belaruspartisan.by/economic/509585/?utm_source=24smi&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=11036&utm_content=3095933&utm_campaign=12808

These authors have a very strange definition of the word "partisan."


The first article, from the MK, clearly states that the so-called "more independent" Belarussian nationalists (from the Belarussian National Party) encouraged their members to join collaborationist auxiliary and police formations, "in order to get training" and by that very deed they cannot be described as genuine partisans.

Also, with regard to the "independent self-defence units in the countryside", they tried to convince to join their cause, the so-called "more independent" Belarussian nationalists explicitly told them to not fight against the Hitlerites, but instead to passively wait out the occupation until the Red Army arrives and then to launch the war for an independent Belarus. This sounds much more like a bunch of passive "waiters" and not any sort of partisans. Their numbers were extremely low, the article puts them at 3 000, compare it to the much more numerous Soviet partisans.

It is possible that those so-called "more independent" Belarussian nationalists were in reality a bunch of provocateurs secretly in Nazi German service, similar to the Ukrainian nationalists from the OUN-B (Banderites/Banderists). Superficially they were "more independent" but in reality they were a bunch of tools of the Nazi Germany.



Looks like bulk of them were in the far west of Belarus, biggest post-liberation actions took place at Novogrodek and Kobrin, and it is possible that many of these "more independent" Belarussian nationalists could have been former members of the AK (it is claimed in some Polish sources that in the far west of Belarus up to 25% of the local AK members were Eastern Orthodox Belarussians), and this is even more interesting as the AK in the eastern Lithuania and western Belarus was guilty of collaboration with the Germans.


Sounds like a load of bull-shit, similar to the UPA claims about its "partisans."

http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html



I have not read the second article, but I suspect it is similar crap.

Despite its past history, IMO Belorussia= today's Belarus is part of Greater Russia, just like today's W. Ukraine with its Rusin minority. All these Eastern Slavs r 1 big nation:
A. G. Lukashenko's maternal grandfather, Trokhym Ivanovich Lukashenko, had been born in the Sumy Oblast of Ukraine near Shostka (today village of Sobycheve).
https://web.archive.org/web/20080731100026/http://www.charter97.org/rus/news/2003/08/15/rodstvennik


A large country open to invasions from all sides will naturally have areas with different ethnic groups, mixtures, languages & dialects.

Brzezinski who was probably the greatest Russophobe of the late 20th century, and the descendant of the lesser Polish nobility noted that although Putin was tactically ,masterful, he was strategically prone to error. Russia is now in a situation regarding Belarus where reaction plays into the hands of greater Western sanctions and an increased Belarus opposition which now directly can target Russia as an invading enemy and inaction which will be interpreted as weakness both internally and externally. Don't think the same protests can't be fired up across Russia asking for greater autonomy in region after region and for change, The late USSR had laughably bad propaganda to the point where my Soviet friends of that generation thought it had to be done on purpose. The US and the UK invested billions and decades in perfecting social mind control. It was Churchill himself who stated in 1946 "all future empires will be empires of the mind". It worked beautifully. All those ICBMs didn't save the USSR from collapse and they will not save Russia either if the minds of the young follow the "Western model".

That's why he had the so-called multi-vector policy of playing others against each other wile clinging to power. Now Poland & Lithuania, after failing in Ukraine, decided to act, hoping that Germany & US will support them in ousting him. 
But the RF & Belarus r dusting off their Union State agreement that wasn't implemented up to now- it's the ace up their sleeve that's now being pulled out & used to the fullest. Belarus is the quintessential buffer state as far as Russia is concerned, & as such it won't be allowed to fall into the hands of her potential enemies.

In the end, for now, Russia needs him to stay in power and it's clear ONCE again they have been caught with their pants down.

It is Luka with his pants down.... and it is Luka that made the mistake... he didn't realise how fragile his position actually is and then he saw the size of the dick coming towards him from the west... and he knows they wont be gentle... look at the Ukraine... and they don't care... they think the Ukraine is a success...

It is not in Russian interests to keep Luka... Luka is clearly not interested in anything but himself... he doesn't care what happens to Belarus, he just fears not being able to continue doing what he has been doing...

The main goal for the Russians should be to add Belarus to the federation (Putin is on record wanting this), otherwise, they keep taking these same risks with and you only need one fuck up to completely lose Belarus

It is highly unlikely they will properly integrate and would just become a pain in the ass... they will become like Hong Kong is to China, except they will need extra resources to keep them happy.... resources that could be used better for real Russians...

There shouldn't be even 3 russian countries in the first place. Belarus and Ukraine should be part of Russia. The treason by the communists like Lenin is what is bringing problems for many years and will continue for decades.

Quite correct, and equally Israel should not have been created either because as a country it never existed before, but those ships have sailed... Russia should be looking forward and not back.

Agree with you Seig, that keeping Luka in power should be in Russia's interests.

Russia should be interested in real democracy... in Russia and in Belarus... so just like in Syria... Russia should be interested in stability and law and order and elections as soon as possible in both cases. Russia would be better off with someone other than Luka... he is just a pain in the ass.

not all of them, certainly not most of the éthnic Russians. The same is true in the RF itself.

Probably true but that will just leave them like the Russian speakers in the Ukraine... isolated and shelled and bombed in their own country by their own government...

Presumably if they broke away from direct Russian influence then Russian purchases of Belarusian goods would start to fall. Is that a lot of stuff?

I would suspect that Russia was a bigger trade partner than the EU is or could be... but the same was true with Ukraine as well...

I've always been a huge fan of Putin but I can't figure out the Ukraine ballsup and now Belarus for the life of me.

Do you have teenage children? Putin has no more authority to tell the people of the Ukraine or Belarus what to do as he has to tell the people of the UK what to do... the difference between him and western leaders is that he doesn't tell other countries what to do... if only western leaders did the same with Russia and China and every other country on the planet...

If Belarus fell, what would be next? The Caucuses? Or those silly Central Asia places that suck up a fortune and send masses of hachees into Russia every year just so Russia can have them in the Eurasian Union?

Sounds like the same logic that got the US embroiled in a police action in Vietnam... if they fall to communism then it might never stop and the whole world might become communist. I seem to recall that it really had nothing at all to do with communism and everything to do with kicking colonial powers out of the country... namely the French and then the Americans... and after they got the message things settled down and communism didn't spread... shock horror...

Russia has been too weak over the last 30 years to do regime change operations.

I don't think it has anything to do with strength... the ease with which the west talks about and implements regime change or colour revolutions or how ever they want to dress them up is all the information you need to determine what the west is about.

A predatory monster that cannot be trusted...

These people did not get brain transplants, they drank the koolaid of their own volition.

Sad about the people they drag with them... but they will be living the dream right...

Belarus will eventually turn into another Ukraine, the only way to prevent this is to absorb Belarus. That is literally the only way at this stage.

Hahahaha... Russia trying to forcefully absorb Belarus would be Americas biggest wet dream... it would be Russia falling for the trap they set in the Ukraine but failed to spring...

It is still very possible to do, but time is certainly running out. If Russia attempts to just put a band-aid on Belarus then that country will fall out of their orbit eventually, this isn't a problem you can just put a band-aid over and expect to work its self out.

It is not something that can be fixed with force either.

The Russians by now should have learned about their failures with Ukraine and if they repeat those failures then they are truly morons or at least the ones in charge are.

You make it sound like Russia lost something with the Ukraine... those feral nazis are eating themselves and their new western masters are applauding... sounds like a bullet dodged... who would want to create a partnership with those losers?

As you say this also sends a message to various Russian allies and it also pretty much makes my own country even more sure of it's self, after all if we can rip Belarus and Ukraine away from Russia, then we can rip everyone else away also. It's do or die for Russia now, will it succeed or will it flounder around wondering how it got bent over a desk, we will soon find out.

Yeah, keep playing the game.... I am sure destroying countries can't possibly bite you in the arse... BTW would add lots of people from Belarus and Ukraine are very well educated and could probably create all sorts of dangerous things.... but by all means break them and enjoy yourself... I am sure they will never come to resent being used and discarded like trash.

I am sure the Disney movie will have plenty of black people telling their story...

Most young Belarussians would prefer life of a Gastarbeiter in the EU as that is still better than what they currently have.

I wonder what happens if Russia withdraws the oil subsidies. EU has no money to finance yet another country especially now after UK has left.

Quite correct, and equally Israel should not have been created either because as a country it never existed before, but those ships have sailed... 

Israel existed before the Greeks & Romans annexed it. If Romania can absorb Moldova, like she plans to do, Russia can absorb Belarus. Likewise, Germany & Italy weren't unified for a long time; GDR was absorbed by the FRG. Poland was recreated after being devided among other powers.
Risk of a Russian intervention rising in Belarus

Russia would only send in troops if a Ukraine style situation happens.

Putin wants Luka to remain in power for now but if he can't then to get someone in office who will do what the Russians want.

Long as there is no violence, you will not see Russian troops move in.

But even if they want to, the question comes would the Belorusian army allow them? that is hard to say.

There will be more violence, & even a civil war. Russian is the native language of most Belorussians, & Lukashenko won't order his army (that can oust him) to stand in the way. 
Putin can say that they need protection & the 2 Russian mil. bases defences need to be strengthened. He can send troops w/o ID markings just like in Crimea, or dress them in local uniforms, thus freeing Belorussian Army & MVD to deal with internal unrest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeOMCR3JeHE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zaPDVtFASM

if it comes down to a violent coup and it snot clear if Luka still has any power, the army will not know how to react. To say they will stand down is just wishful thinking, they may or may not if such a situation happens.

You are simplifying matters in ways that make no sense at all.

....Yeah you clearly don't know what your talking about, The Crimea situation is different those troops were already there, etc they where garrison forces at the naval base. Russia would not be sending troop over the border without insignias that would make no sense lol.

Have u been there? I rode on a train N-S & back across it 4 times in 1981 & 1984. There r plenty of woods & marshes to cross the border undetected. Mil./BG commanders may get a msg to stand down, masked as coming from their HQs, or they may be bribed like Iraqi generals were.

Tsavo Lion wrote:Have u been there? I rode on a train N-S & back across it 4 times in 1981 & 1984. There r plenty of woods & marshes to cross the border undetected. Mil./BG commanders may get a msg to stand down, masked as coming from their HQs, or they may be bribed like Iraqi generals were.

There is a difference between sneaking a super small amount of guys in vs thousands with armored vehicles....which is what Russia would need to deploy has to seize the boarders with other states and assume control of the main cities they would need thousands upon thousands of troops going in.

Again would they stand down? like I said two times they may or may not if it came down to that.

Since the Belorussian Army will need help on the Polish & Lithuania borders anyway, they won't be trying to stop the Russian Army. In fact, Lukashenko already ordered some units to those borders:
https://www.unian.info/world/belarusian-military-transport-aircraft-begin-to-regularly-fly-to-russia-and-back-11116841.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/18/lukashenko-says-belarus-has-deployed-military-on-its-western-borders.html

https://www.ng.ru/news/687687.html?print=Y

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1fB1Y0oPuE

https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3041848.html

The Ukrainian connection: 
https://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2020-08-20/8_1105_ukraine.html?print=Y

The Chinese connection: 
https://nvo.ng.ru/world/2020-08-20/6_7943_china.html?print=Y

The Army has come out four square behind Luka. If he's offed, by treaty Mother will have her army on the west Byelorus Border in under 24 hours. Same-same if any 'group' tries to cross the west border in to Byelorus.

I lot of you lads have got to end your wet dreams about Luka and VVP. Luka may not be a genius by any stretch of the imagination but methinks VVP has everything under control, especially after his little heart to heart with Muti the other day. There will be no revolution, there will be no 'orderly transfer of power' to a rabble 'led' by a political nobody cooling her heels in Tribaltica. No one gives a shit what The Land of Poles thinks, wants or says nor what Tribaltica says nor what La Belle France mumbles. They don't mean shit when it comes to the safety of the borders of Rossiya and they know it. For krissakes, not even Germany can field an armored division on this day and would be hard pressed to field a battalion, let alone being about to support it in the field for anything beyond a romp in the fields and glens for training.

Even Uncle Sugar don't want a piece of Rossiya on her home borders, Five Points is still stunned at what Strelkov's returning 5,000 in '14 did to the orcs happily camped out on the steppes below Saur Mogila, less than five minutes and two full battalions completely destroyed with the survivors running for the Russian borders and begging for succor. And it wasn't 6 months later Uncle Sugar got handed another s//t sandwich, known as the Debaltsyevo Cauldron, by a bunch of miners, tractor drivers and farmers....who were trained by Mother.

Yes, it seems it is over or will be over soon. And interestingly it appears that Russia is fighting the Western propaganda troupe with their own weapons, and quite effectively. The difference with Ukraine is that in Belarus there is a government willing to be rescued and a pro-russian majority supporting it. I think the West rushed, they should have allowed Lukashenko to do the job of decoupling Belarus himself instead of throwing him into the arms of Russia...

LMFS wrote:Yes, it seems it is over or will be over soon. And interestingly it appears that Russia is fighting the Western propaganda troupe with their own weapons, and quite effectively. The difference with Ukraine is that in Belarus there is a government willing to be rescued and a pro-russian majority supporting it. I think the West rushed, they should have allowed Lukashenko to do the job of decoupling Belarus himself instead of throwing him into the arms of Russia...

It is far from over, you honestly can't think its going to be settled that quickly.