2020–2021 Belarusian protests

"PRO-WESTERN OPPOSITION CALLS ON FEMALE SUPPORTERS TO USE FAKE PREGNANT BELLIES DURING PROTESTS IN BELARUS."

https://southfront.org/pro-western-opposition-calls-on-female-supporters-to-use-fake-pregnant-bellies-during-protests-in-belarus/

Russia cannot be reactive, Russia needs to be proactive.

par far wrote:...Russia cannot be reactive, Russia needs to be proactive.

Agreed, they should hang that two faced moron from the nearest lamp post and get someone competent to do the job

https://www.stalkerzone.org/alcoholic-efremov-goes-to-jail-while-his-lesbian-daughter-does-maidan-in-minsk/

So Efremov who got 8 years in prison for drunk driving killing someone, his fag of a daughter is purposely stirring shit in Belarus.

I think she should also face prison sentence in Belarus. Would be hilarious.

PapaDragon wrote:

par far wrote:...Russia cannot be reactive, Russia needs to be proactive.

Agreed, they should hang that two faced moron from the nearest lamp post and get someone competent to do the job

Just leave him to get hanged by own people instead would be good enough instead of bringing the hate onto us.

Then the people can go get wasted on pro-West cool-aid, have all their factories sold for scrap and move their IT companies to Riga and Vilnius

Eh, and we'll see what comes after that.

From a purely cynical POV; I guess we'll benefit too, the greater part of the Belarus jobless masses will probably settle in Russia.

Very sad situation though, that I can blame Lukashenko entirely for creating.

PapaDragon wrote:

par far wrote:...Russia cannot be reactive, Russia needs to be proactive.

Agreed, they should hang that two faced moron from the nearest lamp post and get someone competent to do the job

Killing him won't solve much and that wouldn't help the Russians in the long term, they want him alive for now.

What Russia has here is a golden opportunity, Luka played his games and it completely backfired.

His "presidency" is mostly finished at this point if Luka wants to have any power. He needs the Russians, there is no question about that.

Of course, this puts him in a very very hard spot to the point he cannot really refuse demands...Say the absorption of Belarus into the Federation which is Putin's main goal.

If Russia lets this golden ticket slip by, that would be sad for them.

They aren't going to get a better opportunity at this point.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

par far wrote:...Russia cannot be reactive, Russia needs to be proactive.

Agreed, they should hang that two faced moron from the nearest lamp post and get someone competent to do the job

Killing him won't solve much and that wouldn't help the Russians in the long term, they want him alive for now.

I wasn't being 100% literal of course but he is definitely due for the trash bin

I do agree with your comment

Some people talk like it is a fait accompli...

There are people in Belarus protesting and well they should Luka is clearly fiddling the books to hold on to power, but the majority are not stupid enough to want what Ukraine got when they ate Nulands cookies.

Announcing new and open elections to see what the Belarus people... all of them... not just the ones that like to go on marches, what they want.

They can make their own choices and Russia can stand by those choices, but they also need to make clear that Russia has been treating them as a buddy and if they want to become a EU drone then that treatment and relationship will change. The EU will never invest and engage Belarus like Russia already does, and to get that huge drop in investment and cooperation and trade is not going to improve their standard of living at all... it will have the opposite effect.

Not a threat... just stating the obvious.

The EU and HATO are hostile to Russia so as Luke Skywalkers mum said to his dad... if you go down that path I can't follow you... you are on your own... and it might make losing your arms and legs in a lava pit look like a mercy...

For Russia all that is really important is stability and no conflict and I think that is what the majority of Belarus want too so it should be easier to ensure than it was in the Ukraine. If Luka wants to stir things up to keep power then I don't think he would get enough support in the military or police to do that and elections would come sooner and he certainly would not become part of those elections.

Scrutiny of any elections they do have has to be by both sides because both sides are interested in fudging the results in their favour.

If they choose to look west then that is fine... as FP says if they look to the EU there isn't the free money and trade and investment there is from Russia... many will move to the EU for work and better jobs, but some might head to Russia too.

Russias border wont be moving even if they join HATO... it just brings HATO targets closer and increases investment in Russian companies that will now have to replace industries in Belarus... trucks and optics and probably a few other things... keeping it inside the Russian economy is the best solution and it is going to happen either way... with Belarus becoming part of Russia or becoming part of the EU, and all the investment and trade an subsidies going to Russian companies instead.

Of course, this puts him in a very very hard spot to the point he cannot really refuse demands...Say the absorption of Belarus into the Federation which is Putin's main goal.

Luka has no credibility now... anything he signs will be grounds for the people to rise up.... the only solution is to ignore the protesters and have new elections so that a leader with the confidence of the people can then move forward and either steer the ship to the EU or Russia... if it was up to Russia they could do both, but the EU and the US wont tolerate that.

If Luka wins the election through support from the oldies and more conservative voters... or simply because the alternatives look like wild eyed PC shit stirrers (ie the Trump effect) then they can start to move forward on integration or whatever.

Honestly, the west smells blood in the water and they are getting up into a frenzy... didn't work with Maduro because he was actually popular with the majority... it was just the 1% that resented him for keeping their to create unlimited income at the expense of the poor in check. It is clear the young people are not happy... but they are never happy anyway... they are not old enough to know how good they have it now.

PD is right though... politically Luka is dead and even if he scrapes through another election like Blair or Bush in their second terms, it will be his last and he knows it so he will probably be happy to sign agreements with Putin for increased integration, but likely with demands for autonomy and preserving culture and language etc.

The longer Russia waits, the more EU and west interferes.
Lukashenko is no better than Yanukovitch.

Regular wrote:The longer Russia waits, the more EU and west interferes.
Lukashenko is no better than Yanukovitch.

They got however long till next elections.

Russian NGO's better get started.

"CIA SPONSORED THE SBU OPERATION TO KIDNAP 33 RUSSIANS IN BELARUS."

I hope Russia hits hard at the Ukrainian and CIA assholes. Good thing the 33 men are back in Russia and all are well. You have 33 pissed off soliders, that are ready to RIP apart the assholes in Ukraine.

https://southfront.org/cia-sponsored-the-sbu-operation-to-kidnap-33-russians-in-belarus/

The more the EU interferes and does things like demand some opposition leader hiding in some baltic state be named leader of Belarus without the say of the people of Belarus the better for Russia.

They can say they support democracy, but what is democratic about picking an opposition member and making them leader of another country without a vote or even talking to the people of that country?

They will soon be telling them to take some African migrants too...

GarryB wrote:The more the EU interferes and does things like demand some opposition leader hiding in some baltic state be named leader of Belarus without the say of the people of Belarus the better for Russia.

They can say they support democracy, but what is democratic about picking an opposition member and making them leader of another country without a vote or even talking to the people of that country?

They will soon be telling them to take some African migrants too...

They are already telling Ukrainians to take African immigrants, but Africans are not stupid to go there.. they don't even use Ukraine as a stop.

"Lukashenko To Putin: Belarusian Borders Are Union State Borders! A Friend In Need Is A Friend Indeed."

Luka's body language and actions say it all. As do Putin's.
So what do people think will happen?
New Belarus leader?
Luka limps on?
Strengthened Union State ties for now?
Or Belarus is finall reabsorbed into the Federation?
Personally I'd like the final option. But then I don't live in Russia so its none of my business really, I'm only of half Ru blood.

Firebird wrote:Luka's body language and actions say it all. As do Putin's.
So what do people think will happen?
New Belarus leader?
Luka limps on?
Strengthened Union State ties for now?
Or Belarus is finall reabsorbed into the Federation?
Personally I'd like the final option. But then I don't live in Russia so its none of my business really,  I'm only of half Ru blood.

For Germany and the EU the Russian intervention in Belarus was a red line, see the last resolution by the European Parliament calling for an international investigation of Navalny's case and to stop NS2 BTW, why on Earth do they call for an investigation if they already know it was Russia and hence NS2 must be stopped?

Luka will get no compassion from the West and has no other chance than relying completely on Russia from now onwards. Belarus will integrate further and both countries will remain separated in the name only for some years.

kvs wrote:Lukasshenko and his regime need to be removed ASAP.   They are the main obstacle to integration.   It does not take decades to
re-integrate Belorus into Russia.   It is already economically and ethnically integrated.   The endless delays at returning to normal
serve the enemies of Russians (which includes Belorussians).

I tend to trust moderate, long term oriented and time proven decisions by Putin better than the kind of fast, ego satisfying knee-kerk reactions demanded by pretty much everyone else. Since you are a top technical guy you will surely understand the kind of time constants involved in changing anything at country level are quite different to the ones of individual persons. In other words, what for us seems too slow for a country can be too fast. They need to adjust legal framework, currencies, prepare the elites for the new reality in order to minimize internal resistance etc etc. Luka was a fool allowing the West to unleash a maidan on him, the West was too fool to rush and left Luka no other option than Russia. Now he knows the West may give Belarus some help, but never with him at the helm, so his "multivector" approach is pretty much done, even when he would certainly want to give it another go once Russia has allowed him to save his ass for the time being...

Putin is smart for internal situations. His foreign policy, while smart, isn't backed up by intelligent people.

Technically, the SVR and such are fully aware the best methods of dealing with propaganda and how to spread it. But they sure as hell don't do it. Biggest example is the fact Russian NGO's are more or less non existent outside of Russia. In Russia they are apparently plenty. But none I can find outside of Russia. These NGO's are those who work in the education and financial fields. These are what helps push people to your side. Same with media. Even Russia's media arm is rather lacking since you got RT who basically peddle same nonsense that Luka stole the elections. All thanks to nonsense spread by Bryan MacDonald and the likes.

So Russia's very weak on soft power

miketheterrible wrote:Putin is smart for internal situations. His foreign policy, while smart, isn't backed up by intelligent people.

Technically, the SVR and such are fully aware the best methods of dealing with propaganda and how to spread it. But they sure as hell don't do it.  Biggest example is the fact Russian NGO's are more or less non existent outside of Russia. In Russia they are apparently plenty. But none I can find outside of Russia. These NGO's are those who work in the education and financial fields. These are what helps push people to your side.  Same with media.  Even Russia's media arm is rather lacking since you got RT who basically peddle same nonsense that Luka stole the elections.  All thanks to nonsense spread by Bryan MacDonald and the likes.

So Russia's very weak on soft power

There are points that I disagree with, Russia's soft power is very strong, this was show cased in Syria. Russia was able to pull a lot of actors together, that did not get along.

I think Russian foreign policy is doing very good. there are things that are out of Russia's control.

I do agree that Russian NGO's need to be more active outside Russia. Russia should cover all the chaos that is happening in the US right and it should be on TV around the clock in Russia.

It's correct to point out Russia is on a time table with absorbing Belarus, eventually, a point will come when it cannot be done.

it's also clear as day Luka is the one holding it back, I suppose he wants to hold onto power until he is ready to step down then do it. But if he waits that long it will no longer be possible.

kvs wrote:My views are hardly "knee-jerk".   Belorus has been "integrating" for the last 20 years and it has clearly not been engaged in any such integration.
That is allowing the formation of a new generation of Belorussians brainwashed to eat NATzO shit.   So clearly there is a need for ASAP
integration since the situation is reaching a critical point of no return.    Endless delays lead to catastrophic conditions which prompt rapid intervention.  
That is a universal truth.

To be clear, I was not specifically referring your views but the general expectation for Russia to solve things in a abrupt and unilateral way. Putin has acted that way when it was critical, but more often than not he has allowed things to follow their path and created minimal burdens and backlash for Russia. I know other (many) people think differently, I am sure most of them would not make for a statesmen of Putin's calibre. The key difference between the previous 20 years and now is that before, it was Russia that needed the limitrophes and paid for keeping ties with them intact. Now it is Lukashenko that needs Russia to avoid ending his days Gaddafi style, even Yanukovich style is already not on offer anymore. By avoiding to take very drastic measures, Russia avoids the West profiting from the alarm created in the Belarusian society if they very blatantly removed Lukashenko from power and it will not be perceived as a rogue state trampling on other nation's sovereignty. Obviously they can and will move things in the proper direction but it will not be through illegitimate or violent moves.

miketheterrible wrote:Putin is smart for internal situations. His foreign policy, while smart, isn't backed up by intelligent people.

Technically, the SVR and such are fully aware the best methods of dealing with propaganda and how to spread it. But they sure as hell don't do it. Biggest example is the fact Russian NGO's are more or less non existent outside of Russia. In Russia they are apparently plenty. But none I can find outside of Russia. These NGO's are those who work in the education and financial fields. These are what helps push people to your side. Same with media. Even Russia's media arm is rather lacking since you got RT who basically peddle same nonsense that Luka stole the elections. All thanks to nonsense spread by Bryan MacDonald and the likes.

So Russia's very weak on soft power

Allowing those maggots to show themselves in full glory to the Russian society serves two purposes:

- To prevent Russians from believing the days of soviet thought control are back
- To show them the rot and indecency the West represents

These are very valuable "vaccines" against a Russian maidan, in fact they are priceless. That does not mean foreign agents can do what they want, that has not been the case in Russia for a while and is getting more difficult with new constitution and increased clarity of a threat coming from the West.

Why wasn't Navalny and everyone he comes into contact with being constantly monitored and recorded? The fact that a false flag poisoning could be pulled off on Russian soil is testament to the lack of skills of the Russian intelligence services vis a vis their foreign counterparts. To then allow him to travel to Germany when perfectly adequate medical treatment was available in Russia and when he was a walking international crime scene is unfathomable. It is not like we haven't seen this script before and given that last time the circus was performed in the UK my money would be on British intelligence. In any event, this scenario should never have been allowed to happen.