...Can you read English or are you just trying to put up a narrative you like....
This has got to be one of the biggest garbage posts I have seen you post.
This is a discussion forum. I come here to discuss and I assume you do to.
I realise you are the centre of your own universe but perhaps English does not mean to you what it means to me.
Please take the time to look at the post I made.
The first line is a quote... of what you actually said. No words put there by me... I just copied and pasted what YOU wrote.
Specifically:
There will be blood most of the young crowd in Belarus doesn't want to join Russia, I don't see them laying down and accepting the taking it over
To which I made ONE comment... ie:
Hahaha.... hilarious.... Russia have not done anything but you are supporting those poor innocent young Belarus men and women in their struggle against the evil Russia...
That was directed at you and your comment, which I quoted fully and directly from you.
The rest of my post was a contribution to this thread.
It had nothing at all to do with you... in fact I am sure you are probably intimately aware of most of those details so there is no point in telling you.
My comments were directed at the people of Belarus reminding them of their alternatives... right now the Ukraine is living the dream after losing quite a few people... the fact that the US hired snipers to murder people in the streets of the Ukraine... murdering both police but also people who they were supposedly helping... Ukrainian heroes of democracy brutally turned in to martyrs to stir up the rest to make them do something seriously stupid without thinking too much...
But no, lets make it all about you and warnings and threats.
By all means feel free to ignore my comments and a member here...
When speaking as a mod ignore me at your peril but as a mod I am saying to you now you can ignore me as a member all you like... we don't need to interact at all socially here... that is fine. Just be clear when I suggest certain behaviour stops or mention problems or get complaints then that needs to be complied with.Otherwise ignore away... that is fine, but can I suggest to try to take things less personally and not assume I am always talking about you.
This is Putins fault in that he isn't hard on Lukashenko
When an opponent is making a mistake... never interrupt them...
Everything is Putin's fault, Ukranians say he is guilty also of maidan. Reality is Lukashenko himself has parted ways with Russia, what should Putin do? If he threatens it would be used for propaganda, if they organise undercover support for pro-russian forces it will be used for propaganda (in fact this possibility has now been pre-empted by the arrest of the Russian contractors under bogus claims, so Russia is under big political pressure and cannot intervene directly to prevent a violent maidan). Russia cannot compete with the West to buy political will in the post-soviet space, that is a fact.
Putin shouldn't act... all these years of buying Belarus and the Ukraine with work and investment they would never get from the west... and for what... they don't appreciate what they have.... and the only way they will is when they lose it.
Nothing Putin could do to make them appreciate Russia and all the perks and trade they get, except do nothing and let them choose to throw it away.
Belarus is a soverign state and is free to do as it pleases... pointing a shotgun and forcing a ring on its finger wont solve the problem of wedding jitters... what it will do is put more cyanide in the soup for tea tonight... no honey, I am not hungry... you eat up though...
The West does not understand that their invasions and regime changes don't last and they don't always turn out how they would like... Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Ukraine, Kosovo, Iraq... the western push to get independence for Kosovo led directly to Russia recognising the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which meant opening Russian borders and establishing trade... those autonomous regions of Georgia were no longer dependent on Georgia and Suck arse Milli Vanilli over reacted... he thought Uncle Sam and the might of HATO was at his back... which created two new independent countries... one step forward two steps back. The Ukraine cut Russia off from supplies of their marine engines and helicopter engines and lots of other military technology, but Russia got the Crimea back and those engines are now getting replaced by better engines that are Russian made. Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan ... all those conflicts greatly increased the influence and power of Iran and Russia in the region both directly and indirectly... and Libya created the migrant sea that created turmoil in the EU and will continue to be the source of terrorist activity for the next few decades one suspects.
Putin understands, and rather than knee jerk responses like shooting down a Turkish plane instead of measured responses that allowed him to make some deals later on he never could have made if he just went for eye for an eye... Turkey would have F-35s by now and south stream would need to be rejiggered.. he took measures that didn't hurt Russia but Turkey felt them... and understood it did wrong.
But I am sure the Baltic States and Georgia and the Ukraine know best... Belarus does not need incentives to join Russia, what they need is the chance to try the alternative for a bit without bloodshed and without animosity... no sabotage, no Russian aggression... if Belarus wants to turn west then they are free to do so... Russia will be there but there wont be free gas or other bribes... if you join the team you get mates rates but no free ride.
Magnitsky had serious medical issues and died in jail. Dozens of critical witnesses have died in US jails but nobody has passed
legislation to penalize America for this. The NATzO lie factory media tried to paint Magnitsky as a "human rights lawyer" when
he was a corrupt accountant working for Browder. His alleged "evidence" against Russian authorities is nothing but self-serving
pap.
The truth is more amusing... he didn't die for what he knew about Putin... he died for what he knew about Browder... he didn't want to go down for Browders crimes, but if he testified against Browder the evidence could be used to get proper extraditions going... Browder had to get the support of the west, and he did that by claiming he is innocent and had dirt on Putin and that is why he was being pursued. But that was not enough... by getting the Acts through in the US he has assured that any capture in any territory and any extradition to Russia to face real justice will just be seen as Putin dealing with another political enemy... when politics has nothing to do with it... Browder is just a thief and a murderer and the reason Magnitsky was killed is probably because he isn't the only dead body in Browders history in Russia...
The problem for the Russians is they cannot let Belarus fall out of their orbit the area is simply too important for them, if something goes down. Honestly, they have to act and seize Belarus. They cannot afford another Ukraine and they do not want Western forces in Belarus so. Yes, they will be punished by EU and what not but better that then lose Belarus.
But don't you see the contradiction. The main value of Belarus is that they share a border with the EU... a land bridge that is blocked off to the north because the Ukraine is closed to them.
But a Russian regime change in Belarus would close the EU to Russia just as much, if not more so... whereas, as has been mentioned the pro west factions in Belarus are not that strong... and the problem with blackmail... is that eventually you have to follow through with your threats...
Russian land physically gone and being used by the enemy
But neither Ukraine nor Belarus... except Crimea are Russian land.... in fact the Ukraine turning west was really the only chance Russia had to get the Crimea out from under them so they have gotten the only bit of Russian land back that they could have gotten.
Plus enemy states placing military gear even closer. This comes at a time Russia's economic ministry is trying to stifle funding to military procurement.
Enemy military equipment is easier to hit. There is no level of military equipment the Ukraine or Belarus could put at their borders that would threaten Russia... and certainly nothing a tactical nuke couldn't sort out.
Yes, Russia doesn't have allies. But having buffer states is good. Removing those to save a few billion will end up costing them tens of billions more a year to provide added protection. Not to mention they will need to deal with the demographic issue to now provide more soldiers that would be needed to defend their borders.
When you say buffer states you mean small insignificant countries between you and the major powers of HATO... so what changes if they look west.
Russia doesn't need a coup in Belarus... they just need democracy to actually work... let them vote. Eventually they will want a change... play hardball in negotiations... force him to follow through in his bluff.... they wont get anything like the trade from the EU that they get from Russia... HATO will send troops and set up radar sites, but they wont invest money in the economy and the asset stripping will be much more painful for a country that is still alive.
Belorus and Ukraine are just
new members of the 3rd world.
Such an accurate description.... and they want Russia to join them as new members of the third world too...
Of course, the yanquis are nowhere as rich and powerful as the idiots believe.
When that bubble bursts and everyone realises it is actually monopoly money they are handing out for gold and energy and things of value... well... more delicious because US sanctions are forcing alternatives to the US dollar so they are flinging thumb tacks around and playing with bows and arrows and darts... when one child finds that handgun it is all over...
Main gripe will be that Belarus holds sensitive technologies of Russia. Russian Su-30 variant and S-400, including Iskanders.
That is not ideal, but if the shift is peaceful rather than traumatic things could be done perhaps...
Proposals are withdrawal of Russian bases, abandoning of CSTO and so on...
Perhaps when they withdraw they withdraw certain items with them that they are helping maintain...
I doubt they would have anything super secret, and then again when the MiG-25P was compromised it did result in a much upgraded MiG-25PD at a time when they were happy with the MiG-25 and with the MiG-31 on the way were not going to upgrade them at all.
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