2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

Isos wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Ah then yes Armenia is losing the war now, so if this keeps up NK will fall.

Armenia did not prepare and that cost them.

They were not prepared to save NK but they are quite prepared to inflict terrible damages to Azerbaijan in a full war with the iskanders and the su-30.

They also have domestic drones and suicide drones that they seem not to be using and keeping them probably because they can't produce a lot and the material thatvthey would destroy right now would be replaced quickly thanks to the oil and gas that Azerbaijan sells.

In a full out war, Iskander and su-30 could destroy their economy and the "tactical" weapons would stop any invasion untill Russia helps them.

Again Azeri isn't going to march into proper Armenian soil if that is what you are saying. I am getting tired of people saying this.

Azerbaijan isn't about to do the one thing that would make them lose.

PapaDragon wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:I don't understand the point your making Papa.

Are you saying he is going to sell Armenia out to the West to save NK?.

I am saying he will lose NK because he keeps living in a dream land and is putting interests of his bosses ahead of interests of his own people

That and painfully obvious lack of any kind of planning and whole pile of dumb easily avoidable mistakes

Azeris were getting ready for this since the 90's and everyone could see it, and how was Armenia preparing to counter it? By torching links to one country that could save them (Russia is right next door to Armenia unlike with Serbia)

Wrong. Russia borders Azerbaijan. Russia does not border Armenia.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Isos wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Ah then yes Armenia is losing the war now, so if this keeps up NK will fall.

Armenia did not prepare and that cost them.

They were not prepared to save NK but they are quite prepared to inflict terrible damages to Azerbaijan in a full war with the iskanders and the su-30.

They also have domestic drones and suicide drones that they seem not to be using and keeping them probably because they can't produce a lot and the material thatvthey would destroy right now would be replaced quickly thanks to the oil and gas that Azerbaijan sells.

In a full out war, Iskander and su-30 could destroy their economy and the "tactical" weapons would stop any invasion untill Russia helps them.

Again Azeri isn't going to march into proper Armenian soil if that is what you are saying. I am getting tired of people saying this.

Azerbaijan isn't about to do the one thing that would make them lose.

Aliyev is modern day Saddam. He has no fear and knows no bounds.

@ George1

"..... ANKARA, October 21. /TASS/. Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay confirmed on Wednesday that Ankara was ready to deploy its troops to Azerbaijan to back Baku in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict..."

It looks like the Erdogang, want to prolong and exacerbate the war. Continue attacking Artsakh. Of course, without war, they loose reason for being there. The Azeris will soon discover the price of " victory ", by subservience to Turkey expansionist sectarian war in region. The primary goal should be to stop the fighting. Freeze the front line, along Artsakh and Armenia border. And get rid of these NATO stooges in region.

nomadski wrote:
@ George1

"..... ANKARA, October 21. /TASS/. Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay confirmed on Wednesday that Ankara was ready to deploy its troops to Azerbaijan to back Baku in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict..."

It looks like  the  Erdogang, want to prolong and exacerbate the war.  Continue attacking Artsakh. Of course, without war, they loose reason for being there. The Azeris will soon discover the price of " victory ", by  subservience to Turkey expansionist sectarian war in region. The primary goal should be to stop the fighting. Freeze the front line, along Artsakh and Armenia border. And get rid of these NATO stooges in region.

Please do not try to instill sense in the debate.

The guys at ANNA posted a small notice which basically boils down to what I've been saying a month ago.
Turkey can drive the conflict with almost no cost. They can sell and settle in places they couldn't have before (Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Central Asia) and overplay their hand. The Situation in Ossetia can turn pretty much on if the Georgians believe they can double down with Turkish drones.

All that was needed was a simple effort into flying Russian migs and shooting down one cluster of Bayraktars. The cost of (non-)intervention in Azerbaijan is going to implode. And the best part is that Turkey can make "formers" do its bidding for free. No Turkish soldier would be hurt, instead Ukraininas are going to kill Russians and vice versa. Azeris are killing Armenians and vice-versa.
All this would have been avoided with decisive action.

The only positive side of this war is military intelligence.

TB-2's have a very small payload.
Typical payload can be rapidly spent on decoys or hardened targets without much effect (only a small part of the tanks targeted were totally lost).
NOD/Night fighting capabilities especially on AA are absolutely a must.
Human air superiority, will be a deciding factor when larger drones like the TB-2/Anka/Aksungur will be fielded. The best way to keep the skies clear would be the good old fighter.
Deep strike capabilities are going to be a must (Armenia cannot spend 8 Iskanders on airfields it has no certitude on). Russia however can spend 150 CM's on infrastruture that will cripple transit and transfer. Including a blanket strike.
Overall the cost of warfare, due to drones almost triples. If both sides deploy drones, the attrition in the foirst week is going to be off the roof. If the parameters are the same, then the logistics will play a role, then the topography and finally the size of the economy.

When it comes to a Russian vs Turkish proxies (except Ukraine) then there is not much that Russia has to fear. However when you put all the situations on fire at the same time (Ukraine, Georgia, AZ, Syria, TJK) you get a very different situation.

Before Russia could pick and choose the strategic set up. Now it is about to have to go ALL OUT on everyone on the area.

https://twitter.com/islamicworldupd/status/1319184985560125440?s=20

Also party begins in the woods.

You seem to be full of yourself.

Turkey couldn't do shit and you know that.

Armenia barely put up a fight and is only sending volunteers. Not official army.

So why should Russia for fucks sakes? You want Russia to solve all their problems?

Ukraine? Ukraine has nothing to do with this nor anything Turkey can do in Ukraine.

Georgia?

Same shit.

Get a grip.

If it ever spiraled where Russia has to enter, the situation would be dealt with, in a month. Difference between Syria and this is that Russia borders this area and can strike from within.

Turkey over extended itself and has made enemies everywhere. They may not know this.

Ukraine? Ukrainian forces folded under coal miners and farmers. They would collapse under trained units

PapaDragon wrote:
I got this off spacebattles.com;

https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/russia-azerbaijan-discuss-settlement-of-nagorno-karabakh-conflict-2020-9-23-36/

... Meanwhile, PM Pashinyan instructed his foreign minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan to spare no effort for securing a meeting with the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. Pashinyan is said to have tasked the Armenian embassy in Washington, the Armenian lobby, and communities in the US for this purpose. The embassy has reportedly allocated funds from the state budget for hiring American lobbyists, including former senator Bob Dole, as well...

Apparently Pashinyan knew that something was up (duh!) well in advance and instead of contacting Moscow he was running off to Pompeo (who didn't even meet with them) to save their asses

I can safely say that Pashinyan is about to become for Armenians what Milosevic is to us Serbs but unlike good old Slobo Pasha definitely wasn't in on the gameplan and he actually fucked up for real despite writing being on the wall in big neon letters

And Armenia definitely had the option of learning from other folks' mistakes unlike Serbia

This is like watching 5 years of Serbian history from the 90's playing out over the period of 2 weeks  

Yeah I tend to agree, it's really clear from all his actions in the last few weeks as well that basically he has no clue about what the hell he is doing.
I'm even leaning towards believing some of the conspiracies about how the Yerevan clans were okay with him coming to power because they expected this, that way the NK clans disappear.

Also seems like the losses are getting pretty bad: https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4169404.html
I don't see how much longer NK can hold on, what is Armenia hoping will happen? A miracle?

Armenia hasn't officially entered either. Token forces isn't gonna do anything.

miketheterrible wrote:You seem to be full of yourself.

Turkey couldn't do shit and you know that.

Armenia barely put up a fight and is only sending volunteers. Not official army.

So why should Russia for fucks sakes? You want Russia to solve all their problems?

Ukraine? Ukraine has nothing to do with this nor anything Turkey can do in Ukraine.

Georgia?

Same shit.

Get a grip.

If it ever spiraled where Russia has to enter, the situation would be dealt with, in a month.  Difference between Syria and this is that Russia borders this area and can strike from within.

Turkey over extended itself and has made enemies everywhere.  They may not know this.

Ukraine? Ukrainian forces folded under coal miners and farmers.  They would collapse under trained units

Armenian forces just lost 2 MRB worth of equimpent, men and supplies. They lost 4 early warning stations. Lost two battalions of SHORAD and lost the strategic situation in the south. The worst isn't all this, it is that they lost it while not being able to fight back most the time, because when they could fight it was blood bath for the Azeris.

Turkey is so bold that they literally have moved back their TB-2's in Yevlakh while from the 3rd October they flew them from Sumagit. These are facts on the fucking ground.
Turkey has effectively a hush hush base in baku and Sumagit as well as two C2's in Nakhchivan. The moment the bases become official, the only way to take them out would be waging war to Azerbaijan and thus basically fucking up that place so hard that everyone who hates the Turk's guts will pause and slap Russia with further sanctions.

Why should Russia? Because while small all the situations that Turkey can provoke, will have a chipping factor. If Ukraine flies its 5 battalions of TB-2's, it will lose them within the first two weeks, but would cause sufficient havoc among the small armored corps and infantry which will pull Russia deeper into that rabbit hole and will also result in a larger military action that would then have to expand the line deep into Kharkov and Zaporizha. While Russia can and will do it to make sure Ukraine doesn't try shit once again, it will bring more death and destruction among Russia and Ukaine and facilitate further alienation of the people that are for all purposes sibling nations. You keep telling yourself that this geopolitical tectonic shock is nothing.

Georgia, is going to be a problem if they fly those shitty drones instead of trying to send troops to choke the Roki tunnel. Why because they will target massively the current MC installation allowing them to force Russian relief forces to bloodier combat. This is return will force the Russians to literally make Tbilissi and Gori a Chechnya redux with extra sauce. Then the other issue of the maritime warfare on the Black Sea which the Turks might try and intervene by blocking Russian amphibious forces, this will bring people closer to an actual confrontation with NATO, although the Italians, Greeks and French would probably pop the corn and watch the Turks get annihilated at sea.

Etc. Every conflict taken as a singularity is not a big issue (except Ukraine) but all conflicts blowing up at once, will be a huge issue.

Off course you don't understand this because you're not looking at the reality, you're coping hard.

Well I believe in territorial integrity of nations. No sectarian fighting. No foreign bases.  Etc. And as you said,  I may be wasting my time, injecting sense into the argument.

In that case, as you said, two can play that game. Iran is far less sensitive to sectarian conflict than Turkey. We can arm Armenia , Kurds, Iraqi Shia, Syria, Greece... ..... For joint attack against Turkey.   Break them up. Divide territory.

Armenia gets a share. Iran gets a share, kurds gets a share, Syria and Iraq  gets a share, Greece gets a share and  Russia gets a share  and  Erdogang goes to Central Asia...........

No seriously.

What reality? The one where you claim yet we don't see the evidence, or the one where Armenia isn't fully engaged in this war itself yet you are demanding Russia is fully engaged.

If Armenia was fully at war here, Islanders would have been used, or their Sukhois.

Yet....none.

The last thing Turkey will want is Russia to fully respond. Multifront conflicts isn't out of reality nor hardship for Russia. Things aren't singular in a sense one man is controlling all fronts. No, this is why generals exist.

Politically, Russia isn't at the position yet to strike. Nor have they been attacked directly or has Armenia asked for direct assistance officially.

Otherwise, what you are asking is for Russia to act like the United States which we all condemn.

It isn't I am not seeing the big picture here, is that you are assuming too much. Coping is on your end. Because seriously, turkey doesn't have the control like you think it does. If Ukraine was gonna attack, they would have already under US guise. Even US here is against Turkey which is hilarious.

Maybe you got more vested interest in this conflict than I do, so maybe I'm not nearly as emotional about it.

But regarding all of Armenia's losses, can you post them including source and locations of said destroyed assets? Cause I'm with Mindstorm where there wasn't much at all.

nomadski wrote:Well I believe in territorial integrity of nations. No sectarian fighting. No foreign bases.  Etc. And as you said,  I may be wasting my time, injecting sense into the argument.

In that case, as you said, two can play that game. Iran is far less sensitive to sectarian conflict than Turkey. We can arm Armenia , Kurds, Iraqi Shia, Syria, Greece... ..... For joint attack against Turkey.   Beak them up. Divide territory.

Armenia gets a share. Iran gets a share, kurds gets a share, Syria and Iraq  gets a share, Greece gets a share and  Russia gets a share  and  Erdogang goes to Central Asia...........

No seriously.

Not really. The game isn't to be played between Iran and Turkey. It is clearly to be played between Russia and Turkey. Iran first needs to get back on its feet after the prolonged sanction regime.

If Iran was to arm ARMENIA, it would have done so. It hasn't. Same issue with Russia. They had enough time to see the current situation coming. FFS they (Russia) even dared pull a "we saw what you did there" to Turkey while they were wrecking havoc among Artsakh fighters.

Russia has everything to lose in this situation. I understand that the Russians aren't morons and they don't want to spoil the show by showing that the TSK drones are a false solution, but now we're a month into the conflict and the Azeris are at the Armenian border.

miketheterrible wrote:What reality? The one where you claim yet we don't see the evidence, or the one where Armenia isn't fully engaged in this war itself yet you are demanding Russia is fully engaged.

If Armenia was fully at war here, Islanders would have been used, or their Sukhois.

Yet....none.

The last thing Turkey will want is Russia to fully respond. Multifront conflicts isn't out of reality nor hardship for Russia. Things aren't singular in a sense one man is controlling all fronts.  No, this is why generals exist.

Politically, Russia isn't at the position yet to strike. Nor have they been attacked directly or has Armenia asked for direct assistance officially.

Otherwise, what you are asking is for Russia to act like the United States which we all condemn.

It isn't I am not seeing the big picture here, is that you are assuming too much.  Coping is on your end.  Because seriously, turkey doesn't have the control like you think it does.  If Ukraine was gonna attack, they would have already under US guise.  Even US here is against Turkey which is hilarious.

Maybe you got more vested interest in this conflict than I do, so maybe I'm not nearly as emotional about it.

But regarding all of Armenia's losses, can you post them including source and locations of said destroyed assets? Cause I'm with Mindstorm where there wasn't much at all.

The evidence is in the capture of NKA materiel, AZ armed forces advances and overall lack of tactical pause in the movement south of NK.

Russia was in a political posture to strike once the TSK shot that SU-25 over Vardenis and when the bus was hit in Vardenis. It is a political fig leaf. There is no will to get behind Armenia for an array of reasons, one being the current ARM leadership. The problem is that a country exists beyond its leadership.

Well, you can blame Russia for not recognizing Karabakh as independent but part of Azerbaijan.

So Russia painted itself into a corner with that. When was that ruling too?

If Turks go against Russia in Armenia. Then Russia gets caucases. Better for Iran. Good ally neighbour. Then Iran should go against Turks. And help Kurds become a nation too. And Greece should take back Cyprus. Syria to push out Turks. Same with Iraq. Great opportunity. No great effort on Iran side. Just pop open the pop corn  and watch the show. as papa says.........

Well boys and girls, looks like the endspiel is almost here: https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6266250.html
Azeri troops rumored to be around 10-12km away from the Lachin corridor.
If that falls, the entire NK military is on life-support.

Pasha, pasha, did your westerners help you?

Maximmmm wrote:Well boys and girls, looks like the endspiel is almost here: https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6266250.html
Azeri troops rumored to be around 10-12km away from the Lachin corridor.
If that falls, the entire NK military is on life-support.

Pasha, pasha, did your westerners help you?

Well as I said, Pasha didn't get help by neither side so...

The issue however, is that for AZ to get through to the Lachin Corridor, they will be forced to strike in ARM. Given where the road passes.
Let's see how the Turks solve this without hitting ARM.

Party going up in the woods.

https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1319254817940832257?s=20

update names and photos of 650 Azeri soldiers killed in Karabakh so far

https://m.facebook.com/herbimedia/

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Maximmmm wrote:Well boys and girls, looks like the endspiel is almost here: https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6266250.html
Azeri troops rumored to be around 10-12km away from the Lachin corridor.
If that falls, the entire NK military is on life-support.

Pasha, pasha, did your westerners help you?

Well as I said, Pasha didn't get help by neither side so...

The issue however, is that for AZ to get through to the Lachin Corridor, they will be forced to strike in ARM. Given where the road passes.
Let's see how the Turks solve this without hitting ARM.

Party going up in the woods.

https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1319254817940832257?s=20

Yeah this has been quite the bloody conflict. Awful.
As for not getting help from Russia, it's not like he requested it so

https://www.stalkerzone.org/there-is-no-victory-for-anyone-in-karabakh/

AZ wont attack ARM lands. But it ARM attacks from ARM land, it will have opportunity to return fire accordingly. No overkills. Then it wont be considered unprovoked and considered to be ARM offensive stance. Hence no justification for CSTO help.

Looks like the Azeri advance in the south , the shape of front line,  mirrors the  shape of Armenian border. Distance of  forces in far south , about 5 km, from Armenian border. Distance of Azer forces from Lachin reported to be about 30 km. Average distance of Azer forces from Armenian border is about 15 to 20 km.

I think this means Azeris avoiding artillery fire  from Armenian side. Not because they do not have forces to advance. But because coming closer is a risk for them,  being hit directly by Armenian forces. And they would have to respond into Armenia. Meaning being roasted by Russia.

If I am right, they will stop some 15 to 20 km, from Lachin. On either side of the Road. This will provide Armenia with buffer for Artsakh. I think good chance to freeze the front there, at this stage. But Azer will then come from north. But same story there.

Video released from Ağkend. Entire Iranian Azerbaijani border is under AZ control.

And 30 km was yesterdays info. Today it is at about 15km to Lachin.

@Max


The problem is that even if he did, Russia has made their position clear long as the fighting stays in NK, they will not act. People need to accept, Russia isn't going to save NK because again they consider that occupied Azeri land.

Azeri would be also free to respond to Armenia attacking them from Armenian soil say if they fired arty, long as Azeri only targeted that position.

Strike of relation also will not bring Russia in.

People thinking if Armenia just pounds Azeri forces from their side of the boarder and get fired at in return would make Russia act are clueless.

KVS keep talking your non-sense Russia doesn't consider NK to be a part of Amenia and they themselves have said this, Putin has said he will not do a thing long as the fighting stays in NK. What lies you going to make up next?.

You're ridiculous lol, Azeri was given control of that land WAY before Yeltsin came into power, back in the days of the USSR, in fact it was STALIN in 1921 who did this. You can blame Stalin for this not the US nor Yeltsin sure Yeltsin was a moron but NK isn't on him.

You propagandist.

Be butt hurt all you want but those are the facts.