2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #2

PapaDragon wrote:

Tsavo Lion wrote:

Karabah is rightful Azeri territory and everyone on this planet agrees, Armenians first and foremost

No, Armenians claimed NK back in 1988, & they + the diaspora certainly don't consider it as Azeri now....

Wrong

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Artsakh#Recognition_process

No UN member states have recognised Artsakh...

No UN members includes Armenia

According to Armenia itself it's Azeri territory, case closed

PapaDragon wrote:No UN members includes Armenia- FYI, she's a member: ‎UN Member States

According to Armenia itself it's Azeri territory, case closed- pl. stop repeating nonsense- it was formerly included in Azerbaijan as the USSR was being formed; after Baku declared independence it had no right to claim it as it had been populated by mostly ethnic Armenians for millennia, even under the Persians who moved other Armenians elsewhere, & whom Russians returned later. 
It's the same with Crimea: Kiev's claim to it is as flimsy. 

franco wrote:...Disagree, they might have not claimed the territory or recognized it officially BUT they diffidently feel that it is Armenian or wouldn't be prepared to fight and die for it.  

They don't feel differently enough to sigh a piece of paper but they expect Russia to go to war over it?

JohninMK wrote:Have there been any reports of the Syrian mercenaries doing what they like to do best, looting, pillaging and rape of Christians? Or are they on a short leash?

That is what it is. Shitty AD setup of NK has left it open to easy pickings by drones. Radar systems turned off or systems not operational, mixed with just being clustered and out in the open.

Azerbaijan was very much prepared. NK was not. And with lack of Armenia support, looks like not much else.

Armenians are being cynical to Armenians in NK then, and by some orders of magnitude more than Russians. It is ludicrous to suggest that Russia should fight their illegal wars on their behalf, wasting their men, wealth and international fair-play stance, so that Armenians keep a good opinion of them. They can go get fucked if they don't like Russians, honestly.

Russia can let Armenians get slaughtered and pretend it has its hands tied by legal concerns, but it clearly has issues with that approach given what it just did in Syria.

If Russia wants to drop more depth because of its lack of willpower, the situation will get worse before getting any better. Turkey would have scored the best advance by actually not even attacking Armenia.

They have no reason to escalate

Armenia clearly doesn't see this situation as too serious so why should Russia barge in uninvited?

KoTeMoRe wrote:Turkey has deployed Kargut in AZ as well.

Please keep talking about this being an ARM issue and whatnot.
The whole situation is being a spearheaded by Turkey including targeted assasinations now.

The cynicism is going to be sweet, when you'll use NK situation against Turkey in the future regarding ethnic cleansing.

nomadski wrote:The article written by Armenian academic. Refers to treaties and referendum and EU recognitions of post soviet borders. All these concepts are invalidated by war. That is, a requirement for them to be true, as statements. Depends on the premise of there being peace.Right now, the only relevant facts, are those on the ground. Written in bullets and blood.

Isos wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1320490120819187712

Nice thread on turkish drones and their stand off attacks on armenian AD.

Their drone use a lot GPS. Armenia can counter tgem by jamming GPS in the area totally. Then those drones will need constant control from operator and use laser guidance for their MAM munitiins which reduces their range making them go inside AD engagement zone.

Now they use GPS and can launch MAM L from 14km away. And the drone is just following a preplaned path with GPS instead of radio control.

kvs wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Turkey has deployed Kargut in AZ as well.

Please keep talking about this being an ARM issue and whatnot.
The whole situation is being a spearheaded by Turkey including targeted assasinations now.

The cynicism is going to be sweet, when you'll use NK situation against Turkey in the future regarding ethnic cleansing.

The freedom to act based on localized moral indignation for countries is very limited unless they are imperial outfits
like the US and its EU quislings.   Russia is not a hyperpower able to dictate to the world what it wants.   So it has
to play footsie with Turkey and not just slap it down.  

At the end of the day it was Armenia itself that decided to throw Russia under the bus and attempt to become yet
another urchin in NATzO.   Reality bites.

PapaDragon wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote: Russia is indeed holding back because it has the upper hand in the escalation process. That is a dangerous gamble. ...

They have no reason to escalate

Armenia clearly doesn't see this situation as too serious so why should Russia barge in uninvited?

KoTeMoRe wrote: Russia is being cynical wrt to Armenia and is betting on its current protector role AFTER this conflict. This would mean that Russia is expecting ARM population to reject Pash, while they might as well (and this is my opinion) reject an useless Russia (in their eyes).....

Armenian population can reject useless Russia and it would not cost Russia one cent

But they should be better prepared for all out war with Turkey down the road than they are for this tiny skirmish with Azerbaijan

KoTeMoRe wrote: What Armenians chose and what Russia's role in Armenia is are related, but also reciprocating. Russia can let Armenians get slaughtered and pretend it has its hands tied by legal concerns, but it clearly has issues with that approach given what it just did in Syria. ....

What the did in Syria furthers Russian national interests

Walking into the trap set up by EU and Armenians does not

KoTeMoRe wrote:Furthermore, I repeat the issue, it hasn't anything to do with Karabagh, but with the principle of quandary. Russia is not supposed to be the quandary of the region. It is supposed to be fucking Alexander and cut the Gordian knot. Here they literally are letting the Turks get into the negotiation table regarding Artsakh while the Minsk table is already FULL. ....

There is no knot to cut here

Karabah is rightful Azeri territory and everyone on this planet agrees, Armenians first and foremost

KoTeMoRe wrote:  Russia doesn't owe at anyone anything, the same way Armenians do not owe Russia its two bases in Guymri & Erevan, which are literally tripwires vs Turkey. ....

Armenians are welcome to ask Russians to leave those bases (and to make accommodations for Turkish military which would take their place there immediately afterwards)



Fact remains that Armenia is acting in bad faith here and that Russia gains more by not getting involved

If Russians storm in now they will be vindicating current Armenian government which would use first available opportunity to again switch cams and blame Russia both for losses in NK and for acting like militant meddler

But if they wait and let Armenians taste their own medicine they get to have Armenia served on the platter with pro-EU elements removed from equation and to keep good relations with Azeris (who unlike Armenians were always upfront about what they want)

War is just a way of establishing new facts on the ground and getting new recognition. ..
The UN is a waste of space for being a forum for BS opportunistic international politics that ultimately serve imperial ambitions of some member states and trample over the so-called international community. The UN is also compromised by infiltration of
various committees by agents of these imperial powers.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Isos wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1320490120819187712

Nice thread on turkish drones and their stand off attacks on armenian AD.

Their drone use a lot GPS. Armenia can counter tgem by jamming GPS in the area totally. Then those drones will need constant control from operator and use laser guidance for their MAM munitiins which reduces their range making them go inside AD engagement zone.

Now they use GPS and can launch MAM L from 14km away. And the drone is just following a preplaned path with GPS instead of radio control.

Only it is all wrong.

1. GPS cannot account for mobile targets. I can point out multiple cases of active laser targeting.
2. MAM-L doesnt have jammers. Harpy and Harop have because they're large ammunitions not a glide ATGM like the MAM ammunition.
3. Jamming GPS doesn't change much to the problem. Because the GPS there only to make the ammunition self aware. But the Wescam optronics can also calculate LAT/LONG by laser which puts the a pre-path to the MAM, so that the ammunition doesn't lose its momentum while being steered. the laser is still used to home in the target once the target is within the 8km range.
4. Many claims have been leveled to the TOR, but there has been no image of any of them.
5. S-300PS were targeted with HArop because the inherent cost/reward of the operation.

Isos wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Isos wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1320490120819187712

Nice thread on turkish drones and their stand off attacks on armenian AD.

Their drone use a lot GPS. Armenia can counter tgem by jamming GPS in the area totally. Then those drones will need constant control from operator and use laser guidance for their MAM munitiins which reduces their range making them go inside AD engagement zone.

Now they use GPS and can launch MAM L from 14km away. And the drone is just following a preplaned path with GPS instead of radio control.

Only it is all wrong.

1. GPS cannot account for mobile targets. I can point out multiple cases of active laser targeting.
2. MAM-L doesnt have jammers. Harpy and Harop have because they're large ammunitions not a glide ATGM like the MAM ammunition.
3. Jamming GPS doesn't change much to the problem. Because the GPS there only to make the ammunition self aware. But the Wescam optronics can also calculate LAT/LONG by laser which puts the a pre-path to the MAM, so that the ammunition doesn't lose its momentum while being steered. the laser is still used to home in the target once the target is within the 8km range.
4. Many claims have been leveled to the TOR, but there has been no image of any of them.
5. S-300PS were targeted with HArop because the inherent cost/reward of the operation.

GPS guidance against fixed targets and can be launched from 14km away. Laser guidance means seeing the target so the drone need to come closer.

Also the drone uses GPS to fly toward a target in automatic mode unless if it is controled with radio link.

Jamming the GPS will reduce their attack capabilities, limit them and oblige them to enter the engagement zone of their AD.

Loitiring munitions use also GPS to fly autonomously.

PapaDragon wrote:
Putin calls for Turkish involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh talks

https://www.reuters.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-int/putin-calls-for-turkish-involvement-in-nagorno-karabakh-talks-idUSKBN27E161

Ankara is inconvenience, Brussels is the problem, guess which one Russia prefers?