2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #2

Isos wrote:

lyle6 wrote:Beginning of the end.

https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1322431516174131200

Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
1h
Interestingly, Pashinyan requests assistance through the bilateral Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance 1997 treaty's Article 2 (below), not the CSTO's collective security Article 4. Article 2 does not automatically require military assistance, just consultations. 1608/

It's just more sneaky armenian dancing around without doing anything.

Chances are, they will end up sending small arms and manpads/atgms to Armenia via Iran and then leave it up to Armenia to then move it into NK from their border.

My understanding is that NK lacks certain weapon systems and or just low overall on their weapons.

They currently have strategic advantage (NK) in terrain so hopefully a decent supply will allow them to hold out.

Armenia asks Russia to start consultations on assistance in ensuring the country's security. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has made a request to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Armenian Foreign Ministry reported.

The Armenian prime minister sent a letter to the Russian president with a request to "start urgent consultations" on determining the type and amount of assistance that Russia can provide to Armenia to ensure security within the framework of allied relations between the countries. The reason for this appeal is called the approach of hostilities to the border of Armenia and the claims to its territory of the "Azerbaijani-Turkish aggressor".

On October 31, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing in detail the situation resulting from the Turkish-Azerbaijani military aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh and the existing challenges. The letter, in particular, emphasized the fact of the involvement of foreign terrorists from the Middle East in the hostilities against Nagorno-Karabakh

- reads the message of the Armenian Foreign Ministry.

It is noted that the request for help was sent within the framework of allied relations between Armenia and Russia, as well as Art. 2 agreements "On friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance" dated August 29, 1997.

Let us remind that hostilities on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh began on September 27 this year. Baku demands the complete surrender of Yerevan and the liberation of the "occupied lands".

The battle for Nagorno-Karabakh will end near Shusha

The Azerbaijani military in Nagorno-Karabakh were forced to change the direction of the main attack. Faced with desperate Armenian resistance, they failed to take control of the Lachin corridor, which would cut the unrecognized republic from Armenia. However, they still have the opportunity to force Stepanakert to surrender, starting to hit him with direct fire from all barrels.

Baku managed to advance quite far across the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, but did not achieve the main strategic goal of cutting it off from Armenia. Left without supplies, the isolated, unrecognized republic would eventually have to surrender to the mercy of the victor. Understanding this perfectly, the Armenian military rested to death. As a result, the attackers stopped with open flanks. If Yerevan had sufficient forces, it could close the grouping into a cauldron and defeat it. However, serious supply problems prevent the Armenian BTG from doing this.

Failure in the main direction forced the Azerbaijani military and their Turkish advisers to switch to "plan B". The troops are gradually withdrawn from the threat of encirclement and are transferred to the neighboring high-mountain gorge, from where the road to the city of Shusha opens. This is the most serious danger for Nagorno-Karabakh. After the embarrassment at Lachin, the capture of Shushi remains the last, but a real chance for Azerbaijan to defeat Armenia. President of the unrecognized republic, Harutyunyan, bluntly stated:

As they say: who owns Shusha, he owns Artsakh. I want all of us to realize this moment, and realize it not only in words, but also by direct participation in the defense of Shushi.

And this is not an exaggeration. The small town is located only 10 kilometers from Stepanakert, and the road to the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh passes through it. At one time, only by capturing Shushi, the Armenians were able to secure Stepanakert, which lies in front of him at a glance, from the attacks of Azerbaijani missiles and artillery. By the way, Shamil Basayev, not unknown to Russians, was then among the defenders of the city. Shusha was taken in just a day, this victory is considered an important milestone in the history of the Karabakh conflict.

For Baku, the return of Shushi is not only a key to Stepanakert, but also a matter of national prestige. Before the arrival of the Armenians, 98% of the population of the town were ethnic Azerbaijanis. Conspiracy theories of betrayal were popular, but the most realistic explanation for the defeat is considered to be the extremely low combat capability of the Azerbaijani army at that time. Now times have changed, Baku has properly "pumped" its Armed forces and with the help of Turkish advisers is ready to take revenge.

At the moment, the Azerbaijani military is only 5 kilometers from Shushi, but for Stepanakert, everything is not as bad as it sounds at first glance. Drag tanks and other heavy equipment through the mountain gorgeextremely problematic, the Armenians, in turn, organized a defense along the edge of the ridge. Baku is forced to act by special forces, which move on foot and carry appropriate weapons. Even if they manage to punch a path for armored vehicles, the group can be cut off from supplies and itself get into the encirclement on the other side. Ultimately, the battle for Karabakh will be resolved in the mountains, where Azerbaijanis no longer have a decisive advantage due to heavy weapons and strike UAVs cannot operate with the same efficiency.

https://zen.yandex.ru/media/resparm/levon-terpetrosian-i-robert-kocharian-poediat-v-moskvu-izvestny-podrobnosti-5f9c3cadb09e797cebc3c19f

Первый и второй президенты Армении Левон Тер-Петросян и Роберт Кочарян хотят поехать в Москву, где намерены обсудить ситуацию вокруг Нагорного Карабаха с представителями российской элиты, по итогам обсуждений представить правительству Армении конкретные решения по выходу из сложившейся ситуации. Как сообщает Арменпресс, об этом на своей странице в Facebook написала пресс-секретарь премьер-министра Мане Геворгян.

«В ответ на запросы СМИ отметила, что второй и третий президенты Арцаха Аркадий Гукасян и Бако Саакян на встрече с премьер-министром Николом Пашиняном 20 октября сообщили, что первый и второй президенты Армении Левон Тер-Петросян и Роберт Кочарян хотят отбыть в Москву, где намерены обсудить ситуацию вокруг Нагорного Карабаха с представителями российской элиты и по итогам обсуждений представить правительству Армении конкретные решения по выходу из сложившейся ситуации», - написала Геворгян.

Экс-президенты Арцаха предложили, чтобы результаты возможного визита были обсуждены в ходе встречи бывших и нынешних руководителей Армении и Арцаха.

The first and second presidents of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Robert Kocharian, want to go to Moscow, where they intend to discuss the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh with representatives of the Russian elite, and based on the results of the discussions, present concrete solutions to the Armenian government to overcome the current situation. As reported by Armenpress, Prime Minister's Press Secretary Mane Gevorgyan wrote about this on her Facebook page.

“In response to media inquiries, she noted that the second and third presidents of Artsakh, Arkady Ghukasyan and Bako Sahakyan, at a meeting with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on October 20, said that the first and second presidents of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Robert Kocharian want to leave for Moscow, where we intend to discuss the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh with representatives of the Russian elite and, based on the results of the discussions, present concrete solutions to the Armenian government to get out of the current situation, ”Gevorgyan wrote.

The ex-presidents of Artsakh suggested that the results of the possible visit be discussed during the meeting of the former and current leaders of Armenia and Artsakh.

It seems there was a lot of arm twisting on Pashinyan to accept help from Russia. Two ex-Armenian presidents Ter-Petrosyan and Kocharian will go to Moscow to deal russian help. It is important to note, that Pashinyan have to release Kocharian from jail to negotiate with Russia and help Armenia. Russia already bomb terrorists in Syria to warn Turkey and there was an earthquaqe in Turkey yesterday. The war will now turn around. For now it is talking about protecting territory of Armenia, but it must not be forgeted, that russia could intervene in Artzakh to prevent a new genocide. It was not a coincidence, when Putin talk about Azerbaijani crime against Armenians in Sumgait and Karabakh, which force Armenians to defend themselves, as Soviet government fail to protect them.



Now, when the deal will be done and Russia will step in, war will soon end. In other words, we could say "drones win the propaganda, but Osa and Igla win the war". PVO of Artzakh was effective enough, that Artzakh army alone could defend Artzakh for more than a month against Azerbaijan, Turkey, Pakistan and terrorists from Syria, Libya, Afghanistan,... Turkey and Azerbaijan use extremly big concentration of drones against Artzakh alone together with ECM and artillery and achieve very little and now bigger players will step in. Artzakh have only 150.000 citizens, so you could just think, how big succes of Artzakh army this is.

Russian reply: https://korrespondent.net/world/4290326-v-rf-rasskazaly-pry-kakom-uslovyy-pomohut-armenyy

https://lenta.ru/news/2020/10/30/shushi/

Maximmmm wrote:...It's just more sneaky armenian dancing around without doing anything.

Correct

He will never do anything that could risk inconveniencing or alienating EU

For Pasha EU is absolute priority and what Brussels says goes



Russia's response to Pashinian's request:

Russian response to Armenia’s request to ensure their security:
If the conflict reaches to mainland Armenia, Russia will provide necessary assistance to Yerevan.

https://twitter.com/MiddleEastWatc1/status/1322467020399644673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1322467020399644673%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html1322467020399644673

All these Ex-Soviet states demanded that any future interactions with Russia be strictly transactional

But now the shoe is on the other foot and we see so many of them flip-flopping

But Russia has seen the bounty that transactional approach brings and has no desire to regress back into the old ways

Now Pashinyan may try to lure the Azeris into Armenia or use a false flag operation. 
NK soldiers don't even wear body armor- that means his army doen't have enough, if any of them either. https://korrespondent.net/world/4290326-v-rf-rasskazaly-pry-kakom-uslovyy-pomohut-armenyy

Azeri isn't going to march into Armenia, people need to stop with that.

Maybe so, but air/missile strikes by them or Turks r possible.
Baku itself admitted: Nagorno-Karabakh is not Azerbaijan: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/3104048.html

The Azeris should be happy with the gains they made. Not advance into NK. Not attack it by artillery or drones. Even if they occupy NK ,  then ARM will feel bad, and has to stage war to push out Azer. A never ending war. No one benefits.

The ARM , if they do not have longer range AD,  or Radar to prorect against drones. And only have AAA and manpads. Then use them effectively. I already mentioned, positioning AAA, on hills to reach the drone altitude.

But if they can not see drones at night, their Radar will not distinguish well. To allow pointing manpads. Then they can buy some searchlights. Or strong lights. Or tell people to make light reflectors. Or point car lights. And point it upwards. Around the city.

When drone passes, you will see it shine, in the light. And MANPAD can point at it. And shoot. Lights can also shine horizontal, from hill top. Create a lot of light pollution.

https://trabyhand.com/products/the-most-powerful-tactical-flashlight?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIuvjk49Pf7AIVibHtCh3phwePEAQYByABEgLXTPD_BwE

Many different types.

Tsavo Lion wrote:Now Pashinyan may try to lure the Azeris into Armenia or use a false flag operation. 
NK soldiers don't even wear body armor- that means his army doen't have enough, if any of them either. https://korrespondent.net/world/4290326-v-rf-rasskazaly-pry-kakom-uslovyy-pomohut-armenyy

Wow... worse than not having flak vests... these guys are carrying rifles fitted with blank firing muzzle devices and training lasers triggered by the blanks, so the are equipped for training with laser training systems and muzzle attachments that would prevent live rounds from being fired.

Hope when they take the lasers off and replace the muzzle attachments and load live ammo they also put flak vests on....

If Radar not available, or does not work well against UCAV. Then older methods, can be used to protect against them. Some 300, V1, was brought down over London in WW2, by tethered balloons!


https://youtu.be/yJlYOQLtqKQ


https://youtu.be/4E2GghYsKLU

Nylon ropes, ( strong fishing line or trace) can be attached to upright balloon ropes. They can run freely. Or connect two upright ropes. Drone tangles in nylon ropes, as it dives to target. These anti - drone fishing nets or domes , can protect AAA static placements. The operative firing through nets.

If drone targets balloon. Then spare balloon dangling under inflated balloon, could be inflated. This secondary balloon, can be kept in shrapnel proof steel container. This way, dome can be kept operational.

https://youtu.be/6G8NVv1Veic

If it sounds stupid... but it works.... then it is not stupid...

Tsavo Lion wrote:Now Pashinyan may try to lure the Azeris into Armenia or use a false flag operation. 
NK soldiers don't even wear body armor- that means his army doen't have enough, if any of them either. https://korrespondent.net/world/4290326-v-rf-rasskazaly-pry-kakom-uslovyy-pomohut-armenyy

On the photo are not Artzakh soldiers. They are from one muslim state coinsidering their patch on left arm.

Battle Lost: What "Post-War Armenia" Will Look Like

The Karabakh conflict continues. Despite the pacifying talks at the highest level, the meetings of the foreign ministers and several ceasefires announced and immediately broken. All participants and observers of the process call on the warring parties to peace, but ... somehow sluggishly ...

One gets the impression that they decided to let this long-ripening "abscess" of Transcaucasia completely drain out, since it burst anyway ... To cleanse this old wound, so to speak ...

Everyone is taking apart our president's fresh speech at Valdai in different ways. .. what did he mean by that? ... And what is hidden behind this phrase? But regarding Karabakh, Turkey and everything around it, the President, in my opinion, spoke quite unambiguously. But his words cannot be viewed in isolation from what he does in practice. In particular, on another "Turkish front" - in Syria. From his last words and actions it follows exactly:

a) We are not going to quarrel with Turkey over the Karabakh problems as long as Turkey remains where it is now, even with all the negative factors already taking place. At the same time, this is a signal to the Turks so that they do not soar in their desires, and appreciate what they have.

b) Armenia, and most importantly, no one will help its regime until the troops of the third state try to enter the Armenian territory directly. And this, as we all understand, is unlikely to happen - Aliyev is too smart to make such mistakes.

c) The conflict will most likely be allowed to "burn out", no matter how cynical it may sound from the point of view of the human lives of the participants. But here for the Russian Federation this is even a very specific question about whether it is worth giving funds and, most importantly, the lives of its citizens, in exchange for the lives of citizens of foreign states, even without having a clear idea of ​​the end to which this whole drama should lead ... But there are more than enough negative consequences, and they are all known in advance.

What follows from this if I am right with the above? I don’t know how the issue of Karabakh itself will finally be resolved. Most likely, the calculation is not the impossibility of ethnic cleansing in modern Azerbaijan, there will be something like autonomy or, in the worst case, a "frozen" conflict within a country like Transnistria or Kosovo. How close and whether Azerbaijan will become closer to Turkey after all this is also difficult to say. But with Armenia, everything will be relatively simple. Despite the victorious reports from both belligerents, Azerbaijan is increasingly believing in a real victory. In addition, the Azerbaijani troops, being superior in strength in all respects, operate on their territory and, according to all existing legal articles, lawfully. Without provoking the Russian Federation and the CSTO, Aliyev will carefully squeeze the Armenian troops out of his territory and stop at the border.

In general, by the way, it is not very clear why, when the CSTO is mentioned, assistance is expected specifically and exclusively from the Russian Federation? There are several states in this organization, and everyone is obliged to protect one of the members in the event of aggression, as well as to resolve the issue of participation in a particular conflict, as well as jointly and bear the burden of all the corresponding consequences of such actions.

The CSTO will not intervene, no one will attack a member of the organization and did not intend to. But Armenia will still face a lost war, albeit on a foreign territory, followed by massive discontent within the country and, as a result, a crisis and a change of power. That is, Pashinyan will definitely be removed, and in about the same way as he appeared. I don’t know how adequate such a comparison is, but, in my opinion, Pashinyan is such a “Tikhanovskaya, who did everything right away” at one time, therefore there was no abroad, radicalization and a sharp change of course. Although, under his control, Armenia farther and farther and "moved to the West." Not abruptly.

Now is the time to think about what role Russia will play in all this - it will again silently reconcile itself with another hostile “king” in the post-Soviet space or actively participate in the establishment of a new Armenian leadership, taking into account its own interests. There are all the tools for this, including power tools right on the spot. All these speeches by Vladimir Vladimirovich about the fragility of young post-Soviet democracies and their regimes are, of course, wonderful, but we all see what they instantly turn into, falling into the zone of influence of our enemies - into rabid mongrels splashing with russophobia saliva right at our doorstep. So which is better? And continue to breed evil mad dogs around you or insert them into these regimes, if they are so fragile and have not grown stronger in thirty years of independent existence, a strong iron rod, by force and from the outside, so that they do not fall apart?

The USSR, just twenty years after its revolutionary education and the accompanying devastation and degradation, entered the most terrible war in history with the most powerful enemy in history, and withstood, won! And here, you see, thirty years of peace, independence and democracy, and all of them are still fragile ... This means they failed, and enough to experiment with this - it's too expensive, the lives of entire generations of our people are "at stake." Especially if there is a threat that these experiments of neighbors may spill out for themselves and us to the detriment of, and to the benefit only again and again to someone overseas. And there is such a threat, it is quite real. Moreover, there is already a very real experience of its implementation.

Nikol Pashinyan and those who are behind him and who pulled him to this post are naturally negative figures for Russia. Apparently, they turned out to be negative for Armenia's neighbors. Otherwise it is difficult to explain what is happening now - the parties simply refuse to come to an agreement. Moreover, Pashinyan, constantly shouting out some slogans, clearly does not know what, even in theory, he can agree with Azerbaijanis and what to offer them, and Aliyev simply does not see the point in a serious conversation with Pashinyan, not counting his responsible and strong political figure. And now, if now, having given the Azerbaijani army to clear its own territory, Russia starts to speak out for Armenia (here “for” not in the sense of on its side, but in the sense instead of), and it will present Azerbaijan with acceptable conditions for stopping the conflict, then later so we will and will speak “for” Armenia. And practically any conditions in this situation will be acceptable for Azerbaijan, because they will, in fact, be Azerbaijani - Armenia, having lost the war, will simply not be able to seriously demand anything, and any way out to meet Azerbaijan will be interpreted as a success. And the success of Russia in this case, and to this we need to connect all the power of media propaganda that we have. And if Armenia as a result enters the hard zone of influence of the Russian Federation, then this will only become an additional guarantee of security for Karabakh itself,in whatever form its existence will not take shape further.

Moreover, based on all recent international events, the most powerful regional players and neighbors of Armenia - Turkey and Iran - are also unlikely to support the establishment of a purely pro-Western regime in this country. It cannot be said that they will be very happy with the pro-Russian regime - for them it would be best "about their own", but for the impossibility they will have to choose "out of two evils." And the Russian presence in the region is already a familiar thing, somehow we have lived with it for so many years without conflict. What can not be said about the West at the moment - a serious split is clearly deepening among the Turks and the Persians with the "world of developed democracy". Iran has an old one, Turkey has a new one.

As for the directly personal specifics of the new Armenian government, it is quite possible that at the initial post-war stage it should be generally solved by importing from outside - there are also enough educated, capable and patriotic representatives of the Armenian people in Russia. And then, having made a deep cleaning of the local “sorosyatnik”, it is possible to start educating a new elite on the spot.

And this should be done not only in Armenia. Otherwise, we ourselves will voluntarily give ourselves up soon to be devoured by the rabid dogs that surrounded us on all sides - our former "fragile" neighbors, to whom we have treated so carefully and carefully for three decades ...

Is Greece not NATO?  Sure it is. But it is Greek first, not Turk. So what happens if Turk want to put bases there in Greece?  Absolutely no souvlaki chance. So personally I do not care if Armenian are NATO or  part of new vegetarian society. They are not Turks. Will not allow Turk bases there. Maybe allow NATO bases. But NATO is not common language spoken in Iran. No danger there of starting separatism. NATO in Afghanistan. No real security problem. Look at all these tiny PG slave monarchy. Little to no danger. Even if Zionist makes a base there. But Turks will start separatist problem in Iran. If R. AZER, becomes part of Turkey. Iranian Azerbaijan is next. I guess it is more Iran problem, than Russia. So Iran should help Armenia stop expansionist Turk influence. In captured Armenian land. In Azerbaijan.  Or Artsakh. On the dark side of moon....... Out with the Turks. Iran should seriously consider, recognising Kurd independence in Turkey. Create a Kurdish state. This will destroy the power of Turks. Remove them to Anatoila. Join other grey wolf or yellow dog there.

Rumor has it that president of NK Harutyunyan was killed in an​ airstrike

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1322890328731516929?fbclid=IwAR0160UNGzQ7VOxX8PQCoR-aFFLNz9THjiCLE7MAguyZbGxidwrNbDHpTp0

PapaDragon wrote:
Rumor has it that president of NK Harutyunyan was killed in an​ airstrike

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1322890328731516929?fbclid=IwAR0160UNGzQ7VOxX8PQCoR-aFFLNz9THjiCLE7MAguyZbGxidwrNbDHpTp0

That'd be quite the loss, still amazed Armenians are more critical of Moscow not "helping" than their own government just watching it all happen.

Maximmmm wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Rumor has it that president of NK Harutyunyan was killed in an​ airstrike

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1322890328731516929?fbclid=IwAR0160UNGzQ7VOxX8PQCoR-aFFLNz9THjiCLE7MAguyZbGxidwrNbDHpTp0

That'd be quite the loss, still amazed Armenians are more critical of Moscow not "helping" than their own government just watching it all happen.

Then it is proof that Armenia isn't worth the time or effort in protecting.

If they are more angry at Moscow for not doing anything compared to Armenia proper not doing anything, then what is the point? It just seems pathetic of them.

Armenia can't do much more than she already does w/o getting pounded by Azeris & Turks into submission- that's why her cries for help. Erevan has no strategic depth, surrounded by enemies, & in case of Georgia & Iran, collaborators on all sides. Iran tries to avoid a war with Turkey as, besides other factors, it has her friends Turkmenistan NE & Pakistan in the SE.