2018 Armenian "Velvet" Revolution

flamming_python wrote:Instead of worrying about Armenia you guys should be worrying about Belarus and Kazakhstan.

The Belarussian FM was in London making business and investment deals while the Skripal incident was entering full diplomatic swing in mid-March. Lukashenko has recently being decreeing about the need to balance relations between the West and Russia.. a far cry from his earlier claims about Russian-Belarussian undivided brotherhood.

Kazakhstan abstained during the Russian proposed resolution over the alleged chemical attack in Syrian Ghouta (only China and Bolivia voted for it). Today comes news that Kazakhstan has agreed on the use of its Aktau port and and another one, for the use of the US military in transiting cargoes into Afghanistan. We may now see US military chartered supply ships in the Caspian and US personnel in Kazakhstani Caspian ports.

Russia will quite possibly be left with less and less allies in the near future as these various tin-point ex-Soviet dictators run scared of the increasing sanctions that the West is putting on Russia and hedge their bets... but for sure Armenia won't be one of those lost allies.

miketheterrible wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/Zvezda-TV-channel-about-heroization-of-fascism-in-Armenia.html

Seems Armenia has been actively pushing EU bullshit and glorification of Nazis. Wow. Screw Armenia. I say help Azerbaijan.

Mike,
When I said "bugger-off" , I really meant it.

Have you looked at the date of the article you posted (November 2017)?
The current leader (Sargsyan) is a fan of that controversial Armenian historical figure (Garegin Njdeh) who was anti-communist.
Being anti-communist is not necessarily being Nazi/Fascist.

There is no such thing as Nazi/fascism support stupidity in Armenia. This is no Ukraine or Baltics.

There is no such thing as white or black in Armenian politics. Everything comes in shades of gray. The governments plays politics, the opposition plays politics, the oligarchs play politics, the Russians play their politics etc. etc. eventually, despite all the West's efforts, Armenia stays pro-Russia because there is no other way.

Once again, this is not Ukraine or Baltics. Stop basing your opinions and conclusions on what happened in Ukraine or on some articles here and there.

I am no going to spend my time writing pages to educate you on Armenian politics.
What you wrote above is sheer stupidity based on your complete lack of knowledge about the situation/politics of Armenia.
You really want Russia to help its centuries old enemy (Turkey = Azerbaijan) against it's centuries old and most loyal ally (Armenia)?....Pleeeeeeeeaze!

So, once again: bugger off and don't post anything based on your ignorance.

P.S. Sargsyan now has resigned. He shouldn't have gotten himself elected in the first place. Hopefully things will work out fine very quickly.

Odin of Ossetia wrote:But Armenia? They are Eastern Orthodox, so I guess they can get away with it.

Now to be sure, I still think my analysis here stands – Armenians genuinely do approve of Russia, and even if they didn’t, they certainly approve of Azerbaijan and Turkey far less, and with good reason – but if we do get an anti-Russian Armenian government…

OTOH, Saakashvili also started off by saying he wanted better relations with Russia.

Anyhow.

What will happen if Armenia tells the moskal occupants to go home is that while the Starikovs and the Dugins and the Western Russophiles will throw a hissy fit, Russian nationalists will be quite platonic about it.

Here’s why:

1. Armenia benefits from its Russia relationship far more than does Russia. The Armenian Lobby is the most powerful ethnic lobby in Russian politics, and probably the only one that makes a discernible impact on Russian foreign policy.

2. Armenia was a real geostrategic asset for the Russian Empire before World War I, when ethnic Armenians in the Ottoman Empire were a potential dagger in the backs of the Turks. Their desire to create a Greater Armenia tallied well with Russia’s centuries-long project to dismantle the Ottoman Empire, and it was their consequent loyalty to Petrograd that more than anything else spurred on the Armenian Genocide. Had Russia won the war, a Greater Armenia would have stretched deep into Anatolia, creating an Orthodox landbridge to Lebanon and the Holy Land. With Russia in control of Tsargrad, and the Greeks recreating Magna Graecia, the Turks would have been bottled up in the Anatolian highlands (perhaps no other nation was spared so catastrophic a 20th century fate as Turkey by the Russian Revolution). Russia, not Britain or the US, would have ruled over the Mediterranean.

Today, these are all ancient pipedreams. The Mediterranean is an American lake and will remain so regardless of what happens in Syria. Turkey dominates the region, economically and demographically; if a century ago there around about as many Greeks and Armenians as there were Turks (!), today there are 80 million Turks to 10 million Greeks and 3 million Armenians. In this context, Armenia is strategically overrated. It is landlocked. It is surrounded by hostile and far more powerful states. It locks Russia into military commitments via the CSTO alliance – for instance, if the Turks were to open up a second front in support of an Azeri invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh. And Iran, a genuinely useful if prickly partner, is accessible via the Caspian anyway.

3. There are negligible numbers of ethnic Russians in Armenia. An anti-Russian turn in Armenia will not impact on the welfare of ethnic Russians. Neither will Armenia reaping the results of its folly.

4. Armenia’s friendship is highly situational. To be sure, it supports Russia today. And Jews also support the US. That doesn’t necessarily imply deep loyalty – just that both states advance their respective peoples’ ethnic genetic interests. When they perceived things were otherwise, they made that known. Obscure historical note: The “tradition” of terrorist bombings of the Moscow Metro began with Armenian nationalists in the 1970s.

This is not surprising because Russia have any deep cultural, linguistic, or genetic links to Armenia. Is is its own ancient civilization that is highly distinct from Russia’s.

Now ditching allies just because you know they aren’t that genuine in their love for you, or because they’re not not pulling their weight, doesn’t look good from the side. It’s not just bad from an ethical perspective, but a reputational one as well. Who’d want to be allies with a blackguard, anyway? This is why, unlike some Russian nationalists, I don’t support unilaterally dissolving the special relationship with Armenia. It’s dishonorable, and won’t bring obvious benefits anyway – for instance, it’s not like it will make Turkey into a genuine friend. However, this is not an excuse for allowing oneself to be cucked and enjoying it, so if the initiative comes from the Armenians themselves – well, no reason why Russia shouldn’t take them up on it.

In this scenario, Azerbaijan will probably take the opportunity to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue by force in the next few years. At least seeing the color revolutionaries vainly beseeching their Euro-Atlantic sponsors for help will be amusing. At this point, a rump Armenia terminally disillusioned with the West may go back to Russia anyway. But if it doesn’t, who cares, anyway. By then will be even more irrelevant than it is today.

Main downside for Russia, apart from the obvious one of losing its last major (but isolated) military base in the South Caucasus, is hundreds of thousands of Armenian refugees, as the Azeris proceed to ethnically cleanse that region.

Just to clarify. I don’t want Armenia to turn anti-Russian, nor – more importantly – do I think it will turn anti-Russian. Considering that both Foreign Policy magazine and the Kremlin agree, this is hardly a controversial perspective.

However, if I and Foreign Policy and the Kremlin are all wrong, and the people who see an anti-Russian conspiracy underneath every color revolution are correct after all, it will, at least, not be Russians who will bear the brunt of the ensuing suffering, as happened in the Ukraine.

ATLASCUB wrote:.....
He forgets Russia is practically a land-locked country as well, considering the Far East is massively underdeveloped and to the North they only have ice...........

The-thing-next-door wrote:I just wanted to point out that Russia has many thousnads of troops in Armenia and stands a great deal to lose in terms of trust if it refuses to help one of its allies.

The logical reaction if there is a coup would be to simply stop it by killing its leaders and if that fails to assist the Armian military in the defence of thier country.

And the best part of all this? Russia gains the trust of thier allies and it barley costs them anything.

GarryB wrote:Russia needs to do what it is doing now... step back and let Armenians sort out their internal problems without Russian interference.

Armenians wont appreciate Russians coming in and telling them what to do... Russia cannot solve these problems... Armenia has to decide on solutions it wants to move forward with.

GarryB wrote:The problem is that if the Armenian government asks for Russian help is that the same as the Armenian people asking for help?

Should Russia assist an Armenian leader that does not have the popular support of the people?

The-thing-next-door wrote:

GarryB wrote:The problem is that if the Armenian government asks for Russian help is that the same as the Armenian people asking for help?

Should Russia assist an Armenian leader that does not have the popular support of the people?

If someone supports a ukiestan style illegal coup then they are a traitor and should be dealt with accordingly.

In such a scenario Russia should just do the same thing they did in the 50s and send in the army not withdrawing until every last rebel,mercenary and cia agent is dead.

miketheterrible wrote:He is trying to pleasure Moscow right now cause he knows that because of his little revolution, it could throw Armenia under the bus and lead to his death.