Russian Economy General News: #12

Ukraine may write off Yanukovych's debt to Russia for default

Ukraine will not pay off its $ 3 billion debt to Russia, as it is in a pre-default state. Oleg Filippov , associate professor of the Institute of Finance and Sustainable Development of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Ph.D. in Economics, told FBA "Economics Today" , commenting on the World Bank's report on the debt of developing countries to Russia.

The World Bank has published the amount of debts of the states of the world to Russia for 2019. The international financial organization recognizes the debts of Belarus and Venezuela as permanently growing, but irrecoverable. As for the debt of Ukraine, taken back in 2013, it was completely excluded from the report.
Bad debts revealed to Russia

The debt of more than 30 states to Russia at the end of 2019 amounted to almost $ 23 billion in bilateral loans. At the same time, Belarus was the largest debtor, the amount of the republic's debt reached $ 8.1 billion. The country also received a $ 1 billion loan from Russia in 2020. Part of this amount has already been transferred, part is awaiting confirmation and will be issued if Belarus has no overdue debts to Gazprom.

Bangladesh, Venezuela, India, Vietnam and Yemen owe more than $ 1 billion. Moreover, part of the debts have not been repaid since the days of the USSR, mainly in African countries.

Ukraine owes Russia $ 769 million, the World Bank said. The report does not reflect the $ 3 billion that former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych borrowed back in 2013. The funds were needed to support the current regime.

Negotiations with Moscow implied a loan of 15 billion dollars, three of which managed to receive and transfer into Eurobonds with a rate of five percent in favor of Russia, they were placed on the Irish stock exchange for a period of two years. After that, Yanukovych could not stay in power.

In December 2015, Ukraine refused to pay its debt, calling it commercial and demanded restructuring. Then the International Monetary Fund (IMF) obliged the debt to be paid, and Ukraine transferred it from commercial to political status.

Another court hearing on this issue took place in 2019 in London, as a result, Ukraine refused to comply with the court's orders to pay off its sovereign debt. During the same period, the IMF agreed to lend Ukraine $ 5.5 billion.

The IMF, together with the US Treasury, could have paid off Ukrainian debts, demonstrating their real support, but this did not happen.The IMF may also require Ukraine to return the money

At the end of 2020, the IMF suddenly refused to provide assistance to Ukraine in connection with the coronavirus pandemic, stressing that they already have a cooperation program that does not imply the issue of emergency funding. The State Treasury of Ukraine reported on the completion of 2020 with a budget deficit of $ 3.5 billion.

Moreover, the IMF is holding back tranches for the main program, as it does not see progress in structural reforms in Kiev. Also, the International Monetary Fund made it clear that it may require early repayment of the issued loans, if it understands that the situation is not changing.

"Ukraine will not repay the debt. Firstly, there is now a serious conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Secondly, Kiev is in a pre-default state, and it has nothing to pay off these debts with.

Probably, the World Bank really estimated the possibility of debt repayment at $ 3 billion and ruled it out. They could have been recognized as irrevocable, but, perhaps, they were removed for political correction, given the controversy around Crimea and Donbass. In fact, there is no factual difference - is it an unrecoverable debt or it simply will not be included in the report, "says Filippov.

There are no preconditions for the payment of Yanukovych's "debt," the expert concluded.

Author: Daria Belova

https://gqscpudhfbzcwsycxoabe23g6y--rueconomics-ru.translate.goog/509506-ukraina-mozhet-spisat-na-defolt-dolg-yanukovicha-pered-rossiei?utm_source=finobzor.ru

https://thesaker.is/the-russian-economy-small-impotent-insignificant-true-or-false/

This article should be included in The Russian economy 101 thread we keep talking about. Highly recommend reading before you make a comment on the Russian economy.

The Russian economy – ‘small’, ‘impotent’, ‘insignificant’: true or false?

In the west, there is perennial bluster about the putative ‘weakness’ of the Russian economy. It is widely accepted as ‘fact’ that the Russian economy is somewhere miserably outside the ‘Top 10’ global economies by GDP, sinking ever deeper year by year towards #15, embarrassingly behind such smaller countries as South Korea, Canada, Italy and on par with countries like Spain, Australia, and Mexico. In fact, many a snarky joke is bandied about on the Atlanticist web about how ‘Russia’s economy is barely the size of Texas’, etc.

This is a total western generated fabrication. In this article, I will prove the following points: that the Russian economy is actually ranked around the top 5 (and arguably even much higher)

(Author debunks nominal GDP canard) but I want to get to this part

But how do we know the PPP figure is accurate? Can we prove that PPP value is more in line with Russia’s true economic standing than the Nominal GDP value? Well certainly there are a few correlational indicators that can prove this for us. There are several indirect tell-tale signs that experts can use to look past fraudulent currency manipulated GDP numbers and gauge the real economic strength and productive virility of a country.

Let’s take a look at annual oil and electricity usage by country. These are important indicators that very closely correlate with a country’s economic power for reasons that should be self-evident: the more robust one’s economy, the more that country will be utilizing oil and electricity in the daily function and growth of that economic engine.



Some may be unconvinced, until looking at the chart above and seeing how well it correlates to the typical GDP standings. The chart shows oil consumption by country and in fact, the top 10 all looks quite similar to and closely mimics the PPP GDP chart. Russia here is seen at #6 just like in the PPP economic standings (where it is either #5 or #6 depending on source), NOT in #11-15 place as the fraudulent Nominal GDP would have you believe. The skeptic might ask, well wouldn’t a large population country be misrepresented on this chart because they use a lot of oil? To answer that, take Indonesia as an example, it has a population almost double that of Russia, yet it is somewhere in the ~15th place in the oil consumption chart, and not surprisingly that also roughly reflects its place in the GDP standings as well. So, as one can see the size of your country or population count is not reflected in the oil consumption chart, in fact it correlates directly to a country’s GDP, with one or two outlier/flukes such as Saudi Arabia which appears high on the chart owing to its over-reliance on gratuitously consuming vast amounts of oil in the process of producing oil and gas in their oil centered economy. The skeptic might similarly ask, well doesn’t Russia also produce a lot of oil? Yes but in this case, as I’ve said, its position in the oil consumption perfectly matches its GDP PPP position AND there are further indicators below that lay the doubts to rest.

Now let’s look at two other indicators of a robust economy, electricity production and consumption.





As can be seen here, the figures also mimic and correlate the GDP PPP figures. The same countries that dominate the Top 10 economies are seen either producing or consuming electricity at rates that correlate to their economic power. Not coincidentally, here too we see Russia placing near the Top 5, just like in the GDP PPP and quite unlike the fraudulent ~#11-15 placement we see in Nominal GDP. Now remember, these figures are not merely a product of population size. If that was the case, then countries with far larger populations than Russia like Indonesia, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Pakistan would all be way ahead of Russia on the list of energy consumption—yet they are no where on the list. Similarly, countries with SMALLER populations like Germany would not even be in the top 10. Yet Germany is an economic power house and despite having a much smaller population than Russia, appears close to it on the list in perfect accordance with its place on the GDP PPP chart. This clearly indicates that a country’s energy production/consumption is more closely tied to its economic power than mere population size.

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/140611/
Russian consumer goods export records in 2020

Ok based on the oil consumption figure Russias economy is pretty weak, same as the electricity. I think Russia and Canada are quite comparable in climate and vast distances , Canada has a population of 37M or so, yes its a terrible energy hog. Russia uses very little oil. It has almost 4x the population of Canada. Beyond all this, what is the matrial wealth of the population. Russia has 40M cars on the road, 1 for ever 3 people. Canada has 34M almost one car for each person including children. I myself have 3 plus a motorcycle and ebike. It has always puzzled me why such a naturally wealthy country like Russia with such mind blowing technological achievements isn't drowning in wealth.

Probably because you've been psy-oped into thinking everyone needs to own a car (and more importantly get into debt to own one) to effectively participate in the modern economy when comprehensive public transportation systems can serve just as well if not better.

lyle6 wrote:Probably because you've been psy-oped into thinking everyone needs to own a car (and more importantly get into debt to own one) to effectively participate in the modern economy when comprehensive public transportation systems can serve just as well if not better.

In Russia it is possible to go wilderness camping via train.   Americans and Canadians may as will live in another universe in this regard.
You can't even buy groceries without a car outside of some small fraction of neighbourhoods that still retain a layout dating back to the
turn of the last century.   But even in the older parts of the USA (e.g. Boston) you can see that supermarkets have introduce suburban
style isolation in even the old parts of the city.   So you need a car anyway.  

I recall on a trip to Germany, that it was possible to go from the downtown core to the rural areas via electric rail cars.   I got the impression
that some parts of Europe have an effective public transit system.    

In Russia, the advent of American style car cravings has led to urban congestion and has prompted massive road building projects in
all of the large cities.   So Russia has actually retained its superior public transit system, while having all the people who want a
car being able to get one and have new roads for it.

Western MSM coverage of Russian reality is totally absent.   The only coverage is cheesy hate propaganda.

kvs wrote:

lyle6 wrote:Probably because you've been psy-oped into thinking everyone needs to own a car (and more importantly get into debt to own one) to effectively participate in the modern economy when comprehensive public transportation systems can serve just as well if not better.

In Russia it is possible to go wilderness camping via train.   Americans and Canadians may as will live in another universe in this regard.
You can't even buy groceries without a car outside of some small fraction of neighbourhoods that still retain a layout dating back to the
turn of the last century.   But even in the older parts of the USA (e.g. Boston) you can see that supermarkets have introduce suburban
style isolation in even the old parts of the city.   So you need a car anyway.  

I recall on a trip to Germany, that it was possible to go from the downtown core to the rural areas via electric rail cars.   I got the impression
that some parts of Europe have an effective public transit system.    

In Russia, the advent of American style car cravings has led to urban congestion and has prompted massive road building projects in
all of the large cities.   So Russia has actually retained its superior public transit system, while having all the people who want a
car being able to get one and have new roads for it.

Western MSM coverage of Russian reality is totally absent.   The only coverage is cheesy hate propaganda.

Ah, but remember. His sources is "Russian GF from Moscow". So it's about as useful as tits on a bull.

mnztr wrote:Ok based on the oil consumption figure Russias economy is pretty weak, same as the electricity. I think Russia and Canada are quite comparable in climate and vast distances , Canada has a population of 37M or so, yes its a terrible energy hog. Russia uses very little oil. It has almost 4x the population of Canada. Beyond all this, what is the matrial wealth of the population. Russia has 40M cars on the road, 1 for ever 3 people. Canada has 34M almost one car for each person including children. I myself have 3 plus a motorcycle and ebike. It has always puzzled me why such a naturally wealthy country like Russia with such mind blowing technological achievements isn't drowning in wealth.

In Canada you can't go anywhere without a car, the public transportation is crap. Also in Canada and the west, no one is drowning in wealth(only the 1% are drowning in wealth), they are drowning in debt.

kvs wrote:

lyle6 wrote:Probably because you've been psy-oped into thinking everyone needs to own a car (and more importantly get into debt to own one) to effectively participate in the modern economy when comprehensive public transportation systems can serve just as well if not better.

In Russia it is possible to go wilderness camping via train.   Americans and Canadians may as will live in another universe in this regard.
You can't even buy groceries without a car outside of some small fraction of neighbourhoods that still retain a layout dating back to the
turn of the last century.   But even in the older parts of the USA (e.g. Boston) you can see that supermarkets have introduce suburban
style isolation in even the old parts of the city.   So you need a car anyway.  

I recall on a trip to Germany, that it was possible to go from the downtown core to the rural areas via electric rail cars.   I got the impression
that some parts of Europe have an effective public transit system.    

In Russia, the advent of American style car cravings has led to urban congestion and has prompted massive road building projects in
all of the large cities.   So Russia has actually retained its superior public transit system, while having all the people who want a
car being able to get one and have new roads for it.

Western MSM coverage of Russian reality is totally absent.   The only coverage is cheesy hate propaganda.

This is broken logic.
You think Americans buy cars so they can go to the wild? Bad public transport in the USA is a result not the cause of many people owning cars.

Main reason is because they can afford it. If you get 5K a month and owning a car costs you 500 per month or less, then getting a truck for youself, a Tesla for you wife and then an ATV or snowmobile for the weekends is a no brainer

But when your average salary is 800 USD or even lets say 1-1500 USD if you live in Moscow or work in the oil extraction regions in the north, then owning a car is a privilege.

Give a Russian family an average USA salary and see if they will keep using the bus.

par far wrote:

mnztr wrote:Ok based on the oil consumption figure Russias economy is pretty weak, same as the electricity. I think Russia and Canada are quite comparable in climate and vast distances , Canada has a population of 37M or so, yes its a terrible energy hog. Russia uses very little oil. It has almost 4x the population of Canada. Beyond all this, what is the matrial wealth of the population. Russia has 40M cars on the road, 1 for ever 3 people. Canada has 34M almost one car for each person including children. I myself have 3 plus a motorcycle and ebike. It has always puzzled me why such a naturally wealthy country like Russia with such mind blowing technological achievements isn't drowning in wealth.

In Canada you can't go anywhere without a car, the public transportation is crap. Also in Canada and the west, no one is drowning in wealth(only the 1% are drowning in wealth), they are drowning in debt.

Yes I agree public transport is shit compared to Moscow. Yes debt is a part of life in the West, but people tend to waste a lot of money and do stupid things. They are easily parted from their money. But I suspect outside Moscow and St. Petersburg public transport is not great, but don't have any info on that. What about the smaller Russian cities?

They are easily parted from their money. But I suspect outside Moscow and St. Petersburg public transport is not great, but don't have any info on that. What about the smaller Russian cities?

Well with low car ownership rates either the public transport situation around the country is very good, or nobody goes anywhere or does anything because it is too far to walk...

Honestly even if you owned the best and most powerful and fastest car on the planet... who is going to drive from one side of Russia to the other?

It simply does not make sense to travel around Russia in a car unless you are only interested in very short trips.

If you live in Vladivostok... not wanting to drive to St Petersberg is nothing to do with wealth.... you might take the train or fly but why on earth would you drive?

The last hunting trip I went on you couldn't drive to the lodge I stayed at.... it was helicopter in and jet boat out... there were no roads and to take the walking track would take several days (3-4).

And I live in tiny New Zealand...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/269872/largest-automobile-markets-worldwide-based-on-new-car-registrations/

So Russia is just below Brazil in new car registrations of 2020.

Makes sense really. 146M population (vs 212M of Brazil), huge portion of that population are in the western region of Russia where public transport is also vital - Subways and tram structure.

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-public-transit-use.html

About 57% of Russia's population uses public transportation (ignore the road comment. Russian roads can suck, but most are actually not that bad).

Nomad5891 wrote:

This is broken logic.
You think Americans buy cars so they can go to the wild? Bad public transport in the USA is a result not the cause of many people owning cars.

Main reason is because they can afford it. If you get 5K a month and owning a car costs you 500 per month or less, then getting a truck for youself, a Tesla for you wife and then an ATV or snowmobile for the weekends is a no brainer

But when your average salary is 800 USD or even lets say 1-1500 USD if you live in Moscow or work in the oil extraction regions in the north, then owning a car is a privilege.

Give a Russian family an average USA salary and see if they will keep using the bus.  

That 5K is going to have to pay for a lot more than just the car. There's taxes, housing, medical, utilities, education, etc. Shieet, if the majority of Americans are as profligate as you are no wonder so much of your countrymen are living hand to mouth despite living in ostensibly the most prosperous nation on the planet.

miketheterrible wrote:https://www.statista.com/statistics/269872/largest-automobile-markets-worldwide-based-on-new-car-registrations/

So Russia is just below Brazil in new car registrations of 2020.

Makes sense really.  146M population (vs 212M of Brazil), huge portion of that population are in the western region of Russia where public transport is also vital - Subways and tram structure.

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-public-transit-use.html

About 57% of Russia's population uses public transportation (ignore the road comment.  Russian roads can suck, but most are actually not that bad).

These road comments are obsolete and mere parroting. The road and bridge works in Russia are on an epic scale. The total distance of roads
in Russia has been increased by over six times since 2000. Putin should properly be called pontifax. The congestion problems in St. Petersburg,
Moscow and other cities have been substantially addressed and the work is ongoing. Real roads and bridges, not promises.

https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/impressive-progress-of-russian-roads/

One really interesting and rare report released by American intel agencies about what they are expecting to happen in the next 20 years , up to 2040. This future projection information is constantly updated ,accordingly to the geopolitical changes happening in the world and also taking into account the changes that will happen in the world ,that they expect and changes in USA in politics ,from kennedy to obama ,trump and joe biden today ,and includes the future puppets ,they likely know will be chosen by the deep state ,shadow government , military and intel agencies and or super billionaires who run the american economy ,about who they know will likely be chosen in their rigged elections system to become the next potential presidents of USA ,until 2040.

That said , the next video shows at RT , shows a report by US intel agencies ,that shows the
5 different scenarios ,of what the american intel agencies believe after study of real world politics
today and adding all that data to computer simulations programs ,they likely have and russia do have too at least russia military told to have super computers that helps them predict future wars scenarios. but this one is much bigger simulations that goes 20 years in the future and try to predict geopolitics ,economy ,culture , military and potential alliances and that will happen ,of the most likely potential future in 2040. i suppose their list is written from most probable first ,to the second most probable and so on.


What i find interesting and NOT surprising at the same time , is that the CIA report , basically says what i have been saying a million of times in this forum and stand by it. which is ?

That Russia with Putin in power ,will have ZERO chance to ever defeat or disband the anglozionist western hegemony in the world. That Putin not even under 100 years in power ,if he could live those ,could ever do it. Why ? because he have zero strategy ,zero tactics ,zero vision for
defeating the western world . He is a totally passive moron , that only try to dodge attacks but don't fight back neither with their military ,neither with business ,All that idiot focus is gas stations and a strong military and stupid olympic medals. So the real danger Russia face to its existence is their own incompetent president . Putin is by far the biggest national security threat Russia face , because
his weakness ,his insecurity , his fear for war , can be noticed by the west . And this give the west
peace of mind , because they know Putin is weak , Putin is soft and polite and that he will do anything no matter what , including sacrificing thousands of russian soldiers lives , what he have done in syria ,and not even once confront those attacking their military ,those major powers aiding terror groups that are killing russian soldiers or even taking down Russia civilian airliners , as happened to russia commercial plane that took from egypt and crashed ,that ISIS claimed to be the author and the pentagon just days earlier threatened putin with planes that will fall with civilians inside.

So i told.. Russia is facing a full spectrum war , across every area that is possible to fight , and this
is a war ,that russia have no chance to survive with that idiot in power . Russia is facing a political war , media war , economic war ,military war (by proxy) and cultural war too.. and putin is pretending that nothing is happening business as usual with the west.

[u] And in this war ,that Russia is facing , from the anglo-jews west they aim at the complete dissolution of russia in a million of pieces.and the scary thing is that i think they can do it , in a matter of 10 to 20 years.. So i told ,the only thing Russian citizens can do is survive , delay
their collapse ,but with such passive president ,is not possible to take the nation into a safe port
ever , because of how retarded is putin way to see the world he live. So i told ,the only way
Russia have a chance to survive and hold without breaking ,is that either European Union or china
save Russia. but that Russia alone have zero chance to survive on its own.. how i know that ?
because it was france and germany who saved the ass of the master of incompetent Putin ,from an endless war in Ukraine ,that it was what was going to happen , but france and germany blocked obama from doing that ,That he was going to send hundred of thousands of mercenaries ,armed by NATO modern weapons ,to give an attrition war to Russia ,a new afgan war , vietnam to putin in ukraine. by pressuring Ukraine into a peace trap deal , MINSK agreements. So Russia was saved in 2015 by France and Germany literary speaking . had they don't block obama /pressure him to stop their war plans there , Putin will had to invade ukraine with a full scale army and israel and nato will have completely destroyed Putin's military tanks with NATO and israel kamikazi drones , and humiliated their military ,just like turkey and israel did in armenia to Russia. on top of that , russia
will had to face millions of protesters everyday ,demanding to leave ukraine . it will have been a catastrophic disaster ,that will have triggered a nation wide protest to abandon ukraine their military.


So here is a report of the CIA of the most probable future by 2040 and guess what ? in none of the american intel 5 2040 scenarios ,they see Russia as a danger for them. (just like i predicted )
And the only nation they are worried is china.

here are their top 5 potential futures scenarios possible to happen in 2040 , according to CIA.

The list is written in a very ambiguous way ,to not give spoilers of what they are going to exactly do ,
or how they reach those conclusions ,but still give people an idea of how they think the world will move and i do fully agree with their 5 scenarios.

FIVE scenarios for the world geopolitics for 2040 (US intel report )

1) Renaissance of Democracies - America is the leader of open democracies and steal the best
scientist and entrepreneurs from Naughty China and Russia.

opinion: as We know america is not a democracy ,neither is freedom , but they always talk like that
because this is a report for the general public . in this scenario this could do happen , off course it can . it happened already in world war 2 , all world best scientist moved to america ,so they will likely
predict a major very long war between Europe or Turkey vs Russia and another war against china vs taiwan . In this war , Russia is defeated by a combination of war on oil prices , sanctions ,and forcing putin to have for years the russian army in kiev. So all that Anglo west needs to break russia is provoke an endless war trap for russia and sit down and relax how they crush russia nation economy and the civil war that will trigger ,when russia quality of life is terrible and putin image destroyed.

2) A world adrift - The world is in complete chaos because china will not listen to america. But china lacks the military might to completely defeat the west.

translation. in this scenario , What they are saying is that is possible that china will continue growing and dominating in the world in business ,Causing major problems for the west , but in this scenario
US still have NATO and can influence europe.

3)Competive coexistence - China is lead by America and the world is absolutely buzzing ,and thriving because china will allow US to guide them .

Translation , what they really mean here is that China will submit to the west ,will become like japan , or like another taiwan ,and become a super puppet state of the american system and betray Russia.
This is for sure the most favorable scenario ,to stop their competition without any fight and just a complete surrender of china to the west.

4)Separate Silos - Massive wars .

translation - World War 3 , this is not their last option , but they do see it possible to happen.
in this scenario all their attempts to break Russia or china fails and major war with them.

5)Tragedy and Mobilization - The EU have teamed with China .


Translation , China to lead the world ,and the destruction of the american empire . and the super big win for china. not mention in this scenario of what will happen to US or Russia. but seems there are other subscenarios in the conditions that will make EU team With china. What could be US and Russia more or less semi destroy each other , and Europe part ways with both. or that china Economy and business lead the world so much ,that EU abandon the anglo business world and NATO too and
US could become another Canada a regional power but with nukes.


What is interesting in all this scenarios ,that i fully agree with them , is that.

Western intel agencies 2040 projections report , only see china and not russia
as the only danger for the american system and the american empire ,and even that can disband
NATO ,and in the other hand , they see nothing on Putin's Russia ,to even have a chance ever to disband their system.. this is because they know Putin is weak and totally passive and he have zero
ambitions for the future ,zero strategy to counter the western world and its business .other than a strong military and bs sports.


This is why i was saying ,that the only possibility Russia have to continue exist ,will depend on
EU or China ,which ever comes to the massive fool and midget president to rescue and his nation.
Russia don't fight the american system. it follows it.. while china is building infrastructure to replace completely the entire modern western business world.

here is the video..

Vann7 wrote:

Another dumpster fire post from Vann7.

Yes, because the Russian army is like Uncle Sham's infantry which does not have SAMs like the Tor? Right?

Obviously ,you did not saw what happened to Russian army in nagorno karabah ,
their s-300s destroyed ,their iskander wiped , their electronic defenses too , and there is a
video of TORs being destroyed too ,with the crew inside in flames ,trying to escape and
murdered too by turkey drones.

Russia can be defeated in Ukraine in an attrition war , they can lose. All they need to do ,is provoke
Russia into a full scale invasion of ukraine , they can provoke russia very easily ,just start bombing crimea and they will do it.  Next as soon the russian army invades , the ukraine army will retreat ,and this is when they will start attacking russian army with road side bombs ,and every building will have a TOW missile ,that also destroyed t-90s in syria , and NATO can easily overwhelm those russia short range air defenses , if azerbaijan can do it , with russia defending armenia ,even more NATO versus
Russia.  Russia will lose in a war vs ukraine , same way ,americans lost in vietnam , the russian army can  capture all cities in a Blitzkrieg style of war in Ukraine ,but they will be unable to hold it for very long ,because the casualties russia will face , in guerrilla fighting will be too much for them. and on top of that , Russia will be under obligation to feed ukrainians  once they capture it , and deal with the civil unrest ,that they will never be able to control . ukraine is a trap , that will wink russia , if NATO use it , to exhaust the russian military and the sink russian budget . Russia don't have the proper air defenses to fight against swarms of drones ,we saw that how mediocre was the performance of russia with s-300 and pantsirs and tors.  Israeli drones or any cheap nato intelligent drones will own russia army in a mass scale drone war in ukraine.  This is what they want , and the armenian defeat , and the submission of russia there by force , is a clear signal ,that russia was caught with pants down ,and fucked there.  Reality is Russia was the biggest loser  in the nagorno karabah conflict. Because all their air defenses failed there to protect not only nagorno ,but also armenia too , and their own military operating air defenses , were also killed.  because russia can't use their nukes against ukraine , the russian citizens will never tolerate that , they are their cousins ,
and neither russia can start destroying economic infrastructure ,to try to score a victory by punishment of their economy ,because they will have to rebuild it later ,then the options russia will have there will be extremely limited , and a defeat in the end , because of an attrition guerrilla kamikazi drone war ,that nato can sustain for decades there and russia with many too many russians killed in hit and run tactics .


Observe the humiliation that russia had to deal in armenia , a country that Russia is supposed to protect , if their territory attacked ,but could not do it . All TORS in armenia were sent in the last couple of week of the conflict ,and in so short time ,you can't train armenians to operate them.
hint.. it was Russian TORs manned by Russian army officers.   They all got fried alive right at russian
borders.    This is why i said putin is the biggest danger Russia face.  a real threat to russian existence.  Because massive incompetence can destroy nations.



The only more humiliating thing will have been ,if azerbaijan kill the russian officers using the same
ballistic missiles Putin  sold to azerbaijan. this is how stupid is putin ,that he was arming both sides of
the conflcit ,those that are their allies and those that always were potential enemies. This is how desperate is the idiot , that for a few dollars , will even sell their best air defenses to their enemies.
as putin did with their s-400s to erdogan. how brilliant chess move?  
Truly i tell you , what russia had to face in Armenia was nothing , in comparison to the difficult times
that awaits them .  when you have an incompetent idiot , at the head of the nation , anything is possible.  And it was this disastrous loss in nagorno karabah of russian equipment ,to help armenia
what is encouraging armenia to restart the conflict. they even told it in public ,that were inspired
by the humilliating defeat of russia in the armenia vs azerbaijan war.. could not help properly their allies.

this is why russia have problems to get allies in the world ,everyone knows russia lacks of leadership and military force to properly defend any nation ,that is attacked by NATO or israel.

by the way the drones azerbaijan was using , were canadian -american and israeli drones ,they gave
to azerbaijan to wipe out the russian aid to armenia.. and they succeed in the destruction of russian
army and special forces there ,that tried to help armenia hold territory.

and here is how a third world nation destroyed russia mighty s-300s..

Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict: How Baku destroyed Russian S-300s with Israeli suicide drones
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/azerbaijan-armenia-russia-israel-suicide-drones-destroy

the result will have been exactly the same , if putin sends s-400s. or even s-500s..
when the nation is run by idiots , who always do the same over again and again , then their enemies learn how to trick their defenses. the only real defense russia have are their nukes.. to threaten the nation attacking them with drones with nuclear attack. those air defenses belongs to a museum ,after the armenian conflict, the future belong to laser defenses , electronic warfare that works , and computer guided anti air artillery . s-500s and s-400s only will be useful to snipe manned planes , but swarm of drones not so good.

Nagorno karabah- there's a thread for that.
S-300- there's a thread for that.
Iskander - there's a thread for that.
Electronic defenses- there's a thread for that.
TOR- there's a thread for that.
Putin- there's a thread for that.

How can we challenge any of this when he doesn't post in the appropriate threads ? He thinks the Russia economy thread is just his blog.

Is Russia going to conduct census this year? It was supposed to have been done last year.

Backman wrote:Nagorno karabah- there's a thread for that.
S-300- there's a thread for that.
Iskander - there's a thread for that.
Electronic defenses- there's a thread for that.
TOR- there's a thread for that.
Putin- there's a thread for that.

How can we challenge any of this when he doesn't post in the appropriate threads ? He thinks the Russia economy thread is just his blog.

it is a mistake to take out of context my reply.

i was merely responding to an argument about Russia military mediocre performance in nagorno karabah. , can't respond over there as you suggest ,because the conversation happens in this thread and not over there.

however , Military discussions can be relevant to the economy discussion too , this is because
the western strategy to destroy Russia ,is one very simple and very easy for them to do .
The main strategy of the west is to provoke endless conflicts ,civil unrest and wars around Russian borders in places that russia have most important interest for nation security or economy related. The west for example is pushing ukraine into a war with russia for purely economic reasons ,
to sabotage and put pressure on the russian economy .

Vann7 wrote:i was merely responding to an argument about Russia military mediocre performance in nagorno karabah.                                                  

Russia was not involved in any way in the NK fiasco. Pashinyan had his mouth stuffed full of Natostani cock and refused to ask Russia for help.

NK is a great example of what happens when US/EU-backed colour revolutions succeed in putting Soros-trainees into power.

About the saker report.. people should look his previous report , that guy is heavily over rated , a fool , ,take his reports with an inch of salt .  look at his back history so called "reports" ,how he was crying that putin's army was not invading kiev ,in 2014    ,which is exactly what kiev and Washington dc wanted.   You even saw how the ukraine army ,after seeing russian army don't invade as they wanted
to continue capturing more free cities , they began to use their artillery across border to hit russian villages in russian territory ,and they even killed russian citizens ,grandmas ,living close to the border with ukraine.  Lavrov ,that is more educated ,than that idiot , (saker) told .  "kiev is doing everything
it can ,to try to provoke Russia to invade."  . Russia knows a full scale russia military invasion is what kiev was trying to provoke , by kiev constantly shelling civilians in donetsk and lugansk and for a few days also russia main land .  Ukraine is an economy destruction trap for Russia. those nice nuclear reactors for energy that ukraine have ,combined with ukraine army positions using thousands of civilians women and children as human shields will have been the perfect scenario for endless false flag ,framing russia for war crimes and promoting hate in all population against putin regime ,exactly like kiev and NATO tried to do with the malasyan plance false flag incident.. that was blamed on russia army .


What the  (saker the fool) ,that his next to useless website that censors any opinion that don't agree with his view , don't get it ,  is that in the Russian case , a nation facing a real war in almost all fronts that a fight is possible . (only things not tried by west is a direct hot conventional or nuclear war with russia)  . what he don't get ,is that developing an economy alone is not enough in russia case.
doing what putin is doing , to ignore the nation is under attack by his enemies ,and not building an economy that is western sanction proof , ie.. truly independent and modern economy . then what he is effectively doing is avoiding any fight with the west , teaching them ,that there will be always a happy and polite and mr nice putin ,no matter how much the west attacks russia ,no matter how many russian soldiers the west kill , no matter how many business go bankrupt in russia ,consequences of hostile siege of the west on russia economy.

so saker things that just transforming russia into a food exporter will fix russia existential problems ,
and that gdp either nominal or power purchase matters at all , even if russia do nothing to stop the west.

Any economy that putin's develop is totally meaningless long term speaking, if  he don't have any strategy to stop the power of the west and their world domination , that is sustained with their innovative modern business that is the base from which american power rest. in their leadership in world development. So any banana records , or tourism records , neither winning all olympic medals ,will help russia put an end to the western influence over the world ,that their leading business  helps enormously the west ,to convince nations to follow their sanctions and ignore russia.

Russia it is still alive , floating in stormy waters , thanks to europe dependence on energy . but when europe ends their dependence of natural gas ,russia will be dust ,because putin have no plans ,to develop russia as a modern economy that directly compete with the west. 20 years of putin in power , have been a total waste of time for russia , when it comes to solving their problems with the west.
putin have NOT advanced not even 1 centimeter , in making russia a more safer country versus the anglopowers in the west.  All he does is ignore the west exist , ignore their insults , ignore when they kill russian soldiers ,ignore their ngos fully operating in russia , ignore their attacks on allies on russian business and later pretend that is all well ,and is just a matter of "dialogue" ,because the west "don't understand russia"..   but reality is the opposite.. the west understand very well putin ,
they know putin is very weak and very insecure and they simply take advantage of it , this is why they get away with any hostilities they do on russia. they know putin will do nothing , and not even know what to do ,to defend his nation.  Saker ,don't understand ,that all existential problems Russia
have are consequence of putin and russia identity crisis and lack of modern business leadership in the world respectively. Only china is showing the world , how it needs to be done , how to scare the west , with their own game ,with competition to the western modern business , it creates divisions in the western system , not only at the society level ,but elites too , and it promotes disobedience from the world , when nations stop following US sanctions.  

No empire can survive without followers ,without leadership. and is a matter of developing alternatives to the western most successful and popular business to build alternative leadership , and stronger influence.

Putin's development of russia should be seen as a massive failure and not a success story

because he have done absolutely NOTHING to influence the west ,to stop their undeclared war on russia. What putin did in 20 years of wasted time , will be similar to a captain , preventing a ship from sinking , but leaving it on the same storm that caused the ship to sink. seems like a total waste of time .

yeah he modernized the army ,but so what? if the military is not used ,then what's the point?
deterrence of what ? since russia is attacked and soldiers keep dying and women and children on russian borders keep being bombed by NATO or israel. and russian economy continue paralized
because of the west , sabotage it ,significatnly with their sanctions and proxy endless wars they force on russia. "Saving" russia from totally collapsing as putin did , is a good thing , but this efforts will be totally good for nothing if in the end result is exactly the same but at a later time.