Russian Economy General News: #12

In the latest Duran video Mercouris brings up and example of what utter clowns western economists are. Supposedly if
Germany stops using natural gas from Russia tomorrow, then its GDP will fall by less than 3%. We had upthread some
economist in Russia (likely liberast pro-NATzO) claiming Russia's GDP would fall by 15%. The f*ck it would. German industry
would be destroyed by turning off the gas. Russia's industry would keep cranking along. This includes dealing with
automobile supply chains. Most economists live off the smell of their own farts. They think that their Mickey Mouse
substitute form thermodynamics (introduced in the mid 1800s) where everything is merely a function of human wants
is enough to explain the economy. All systems in this universe are subject to thermodynamics. This includes the human
brain. No real energy = no activity.

If it was so easy to deploy windmills and solar panels, then it would have happened long ago, especially in an environment
of massive subsidies. But in the real world Germany gets 27% of its electricity from coal and most of the rest from natural
gas. As we know, the EU is banning Russian coal imports. Coal mining is not a turn on a dime operation.

More realistic GDP drop estimates for Germany would but it at over 30%. By contrast the 3% is more realistic for Russia.

MOSCOW, April 11 - RIA Novosti. The growth of industrial production in Moscow in 2021 amounted to 36.6%,

and the manufacturing industry - 40.1%, Vladislav Ovchinsky, head of the Moscow Department of Investment and Industrial Policy, told reporters on Monday.

"We have good numbers in January-February this year - plus 25.6% compared to the first two months of 2021. At the same time, growth in the manufacturing sectors of the urban industry has amounted to 33.5% since the beginning of the year. It is important to understand that such dynamics Moscow industry showed at a "high base" last year. At the end of 2021, the overall growth in industrial production in Moscow amounted to 36.6%, and the manufacturing industry - 40.1%," Ovchinsky said.

https://ria.ru/20220411/promproizvodstvo-1782982050.html




Dont worry Israeli citizen Kane Kudrin will criticize this stuff for sure

Yeah, Kudrin would claim that growth without foreign investment is not important growth. Only magic western control results in
progress. Who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes? Chutzpah monkeys.

Hungary agreed to pay for Russian gas in rubles

Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto: Budapest will pay for Russian gas supplies in rubles

https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20220411/vengriya-1782994141.html


add Austrian Chancellor visit to Putin. It was about Donbass right? without conference/cameras? Of course this was only to pass Zielenski's word of mouth nuttin /' about payments in Rubles for Russia gas? Sounds legit to me

kvs wrote: Chutzpah monkeys.

Sobchak/Urgant/Kudrin/Yandex HR director?

But they will never do that, for them its always the other side that must accept defeat.

Because they have always been able to bomb the enemy into submission...

Le Pen likely wont even win, I am sure her political enemies are slippery like snakes just like in the US and UK... the civil servants will justify it to themselves that if they got in they would destroy the country as they know it... the Jeremy Corbins, the Le Pens, the Sanders's... the problem of course is that their countries are running headlong and full speed towards a very deep hole in the road and the solution of more sanctions just makes the hole deeper and harder to avoid.

Russia should be pleased they are this dumb.

NOTE: realize this lady is not too popular here however the Chinese seem impressed.

Sohu: Nabiullina's maneuver turned the tide of the US financial war against Russia

The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, turned the tide of the economic war against Russia by repelling the attacks of the US financial "sniper". This is written by the Chinese edition of Sohu. PolitRussia publishes an exclusive retelling of the material .

The economic skirmish between the United States and Russia has been going on for more than a month since the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. As in any war, in this "conflict without gunpowder" each side has its own commanders who have attracted the attention of the world community, the authors write. So, in the confrontation between the largest economies, Russia was represented by the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina, and the US side was represented by Duleep Singh, one of the main architects of anti-Russian sanctions, deputy adviser on national security and international economics in the Biden administration.

According to Chinese analysts, Duleep Singh turned out to be a real financial "sniper" in the development of sanctions measures against Moscow. His maneuvers to put pressure on the economy created a lot of problems for Russia back in 2014, when Crimea returned to the Russian Federation.

“Then Singh played an important role. In addition to freezing the assets of businessmen from the Russian Federation, anti-Russian sanctions were directed against several large companies, mainly banks and energy companies. The restrictions included a ban on buying their shares. This choice was made to exploit one weakness that Singh pointed out: in 2014, many of the most important Russian companies were at risk due to financial obligations to the West. Sanctions at the time led to a sharp fall in the ruble, and inflation in Russia exceeded 12%,” the article says.

Then Russia really faced a severe financial crisis. The fall in world oil prices also had an effect, which, coupled with sanctions, dealt a blow to the Russian economy. It was up to the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, to resolve the difficult situation, and, as the authors note, she coped with this rather quickly. Moreover, in many respects, her decisions led to the fact that the economic indicators of the Russian Federation turned out to be even higher than those that were before the attack of the financial “sniper”.

“Over the next two years, Nabiullina single-handedly contributed to the establishment of a floating exchange rate system in Russia, eased the pressure on Russia's foreign exchange reserves, reduced inflation to its lowest level since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and contributed to the recovery of the Russian economy. We can say that Nabiullina helped Russia withstand the volatility of oil prices and US sanctions at the most dangerous moment for the country,” the publication says.

However, this is not the only merit of the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Under her leadership, Moscow managed to create a real "financial fortress": Russia increased its gold and foreign exchange reserves by $640 billion.

True, the confrontation did not stop there. The United States again needed the help of financial "sniper" Duleep Singh to punish the Russian Federation for its special operation in Ukraine. According to Chinese analysts, it was Singh who was among those who proposed hitting the Russian economy by disconnecting Russian banks from the SWIFT system and imposing restrictions on the Russian central payment system. After that, he decided to deliver a powerful blow to the "financial fortress" of the Russian Federation.

“On February 28, the US Treasury Department announced that it would freeze the assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the United States and prohibit Americans from conducting transactions with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Duleep Singh's two moves reportedly took Russia by surprise. On February 28, the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar fell by more than 21%,” says Sohu.

Even though Russia was cut off from its reserves, the economy continued to function. The West again began to introduce one package of sanctions after another, so emergency measures were required to protect the financial stability of the country. According to the authors, Elvira Nabiullina did everything necessary in the first days of the sanctions attack. So, on February 28, she “attacked the banking problem”: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sharply raised the key rate from 9.5% to 20%. After that, he allocated 733 billion rubles to support credit institutions and allowed banks to postpone the revaluation of their assets in order to keep them at a high level.

All these measures were aimed at maintaining the solvency of banks and preventing their closure due to the fall of the ruble. Subsequently, the momentum of the devaluation of the Russian currency was temporarily stabilized.

“Next, Nabiullina took up inflation. Western sanctions prevented it from using Russian foreign reserves to support the ruble, so it looked at the situation differently and demanded that Russian companies sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings for rubles. In addition, it announced the introduction of capital controls to curb its outflow from the country, including restrictions on the amount that residents can withdraw in US dollars from bank accounts.

All of these steps helped the Russian economy weather the first few waves of financial sniper strikes. However, pressure from the United States and the European Union continued to grow, so new, more decisive measures were required. As it turned out, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation all this time kept the main financial “weapon” at hand, Chinese analysts write, but she was in no hurry to use it, waiting for the right moment. Such a moment came when economic pressure began to seriously hit the ruble exchange rate, and in order to stop this, Elvira Nabiullina made a financial maneuver that was unexpected for the West, reports Sohu.

“On March 23, when Western countries continued to increase sanctions, Nabiullina used a “deadly weapon”, tying together the ruble and Russia’s energy calculations. On the same day, Vladimir Putin announced that natural gas supplies to unfriendly countries would be calculated in rubles, and asked the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the government to formulate the appropriate calculation norms within a week. So Nabiullina turned the tide of this financial war between Russia and Western countries,” write Chinese journalists.

They also note that this decision helped Moscow kill two birds with one stone. European countries are forced to use rubles to pay bills for energy supplies, which not only supports the ruble exchange rate, but also objectively weakens sanctions related to SWIFT, analysts say.

As a result, all this led to the fact that the Russian currency not only stopped falling, but also significantly strengthened. So, as early as March 11, the exchange rate was 121 rubles to the dollar. After Russia used its "killer weapon", the ruble recovered and returned to the levels that were before the start of the economic war, the authors emphasize.

Meanwhile, the architect of anti-Russian sanctions is not asleep. In a recent interview, Duleep Singh said that Western restrictions would lead to a sharp decline in Russia's GDP and introduce the country into economic isolation. However, the events of the past month cast doubt on the effectiveness of the sanctions, Sohu said.

“Even the US media say that it remains to be seen whether the comprehensive sanctions measures taken to weaken the economic power of Russia are effective,” the article says. "International economists note that Russia's domestic market appears to be stabilizing thanks to tight monetary policy, tight capital controls and cash account surpluses."

Earlier, PolitRussia wrote about how the maneuver of the BRICS countries with anti-Russian sanctions could cause a split between the EU and the US.

https://politros-com.translate.goog/23018209-sohu_manevr_nabiullinoi_perelomil_hod_finansovoi_voini_ssha_protiv_rossii_?utm_source=finobzor.ru&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

Azovstal: What will happen to Akhmetov's factories when Bandera and mercenaries are smoked out

https://svpressa-ru.translate.goog/economy/article/331336/?utm_source=finobzor.ru&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

The west was starving Russia of investment so it ended up snookering itself when it came time for sanctions.
If they had integrated Russia's economy together with theirs, then they would have had all the leverage they
wanted. But they were never interested in integrating Russia. They wanted a resource colony and now
they will have nothing.

kvs wrote:The west was starving Russia of investment so it ended up snookering itself when it came time for sanctions.
If they had integrated Russia's economy together with theirs, then they would have had all the leverage they
wanted.   But they were never interested in integrating Russia.  They wanted a resource colony and now
they will have nothing.  

The problem is that the rest of the world is integrated with the west's economy, so they can be blackmailed indefinitely to not trade with Russia.

Even Chinese companies are abiding by western sanctions. They didn't even try to fight the sanctions.

kvs wrote:The west was starving Russia of investment so it ended up snookering itself when it came time for sanctions.
If they had integrated Russia's economy together with theirs, then they would have had all the leverage they
wanted.   But they were never interested in integrating Russia.  They wanted a resource colony and now
they will have nothing.  

IMHO no Russia has a possibility to do well functioning stat capitalist economy with central planning, CBR working on economy growth and large tech corps making decision more form the whole economy scale then optimum of short time gains for "effective managers". Something like China did, just not called Communist anymore


Quite a challenge but I believe possible. Is isolation pf Russia a good thing no. Isolation from aggressive and bandit west yes. In current shape for sure. But outside the west there are other poles of the world emerging.

limb wrote:

The problem is that the rest of the world is integrated with the west's economy, so they can be blackmailed indefinitely to not trade with Russia.

Even Chinese companies are abiding by western sanctions. They didn't even try to fight the sanctions.

You forget to me about time factor. Time works against the west. in 2014 it would be disaster if Putin hit Ukronazis, neither nuclear forces renewed nor hypersonic technology developed not to mention food independence. Those 8 years it was a dash to manage development before na inevitable war breaks.

China also. 2014 many tech still underdeveloped , GDP (not PPP) 10,8 Trillions $ vs 22 ~ 23Trillions $ (so ~30T PPP) This is 2x so much. Great leaps in space, microelectronics or military buildup . Time changes strength ration and not in favor of US + vassals and doggies.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

kvs wrote:The west was starving Russia of investment so it ended up snookering itself when it came time for sanctions.
If they had integrated Russia's economy together with theirs, then they would have had all the leverage they
wanted.   But they were never interested in integrating Russia.  They wanted a resource colony and now
they will have nothing.  

IMHO no Russia has a possibility to do well functioning stat capitalist economy with central planning, CBR working on economy growth and large tech corps making decision more form the whole economy scale then optimum of short time gains for "effective managers".  Something like China did,  just not called Communist anymore


Quite a challenge but I believe possible. Is isolation pf Russia a good thing no. Isolation from aggressive and bandit west yes. In current shape for sure. But outside the west there are other poles of the world emerging.

Central planning failed because it was inconsistent with human psychology and because the central planners were not angelic beings
with vast, instantaneous information necessary to manage the system. The emerging Russian model is large state owned but not
state run enterprises and small and medium enterprises that are fully private. The Russian state does not need to run every grocery
store and kiosk. This is the mixed economic model that Europe supposedly had after WWII but which was destroyed by the neoliberal
take over starting in the 1980s.

However, the Russian mixed economy model I think has more control which history is demonstrating as being essential. BTW, the
so called laissez-faire of the US is a total sham. The US private-run economy is kabuki theater for a few oligarch deciders. In other
words, the whole concept of a free market economy is a crock. This point was collectively realized in Russia around 1998 when
Chernomyrdin proclaimed that that the era of market romanticism in Russia was over.

The problem is that the rest of the world is integrated with the west's economy, so they can be blackmailed indefinitely to not trade with Russia.

Not to trade with Russia and soon also China and then maybe India... that is half the worlds population and sources for a lot of the best technology in the world... and countries that don't sanction and punish smaller countries, or manipulate them into changing their laws to allow their companies to come in and take things over.

The West is predatory.

The wests attempts to contain and isolate Russia will continue, but they also want to contain and isolate China as well... China has been engaging places around the world for investment and resources and Russia is going to have to step up its own efforts in that direction too... some countries will not be interested, but there are plenty who suffer in their current relationship with the west because the west is not very nice who will be delighted to trade with a country with modern technology and resources they can buy... the cheap coal and oil and gas Russia was providing to the EU can go to India and China... the effect on their economies will be significant because cheaper energy will be good for India and China, while having to pay more for energy and energy shortages is going to hit the economies of the EU hard and make things more expensive and also less competitive to the rest of the world.

The West seizing Russian reserves is another interesting thing... it makes the west rather less trustworthy and the dollar and euro more risky... international trade currencies become standards because of confidence and trust... risk destroys that.

Even Chinese companies are abiding by western sanctions. They didn't even try to fight the sanctions.

Some certainly are, but for instance Huawei is a big company that has effectively been banned in the west, so working with Russia is not a problem and so marketing to the rest of the world is their future potential market above of course their existing internal markets... and there are a lot of other Chinese companies happy to work with the Russians who are less likely to kidnap their CEOs...

fertilisers ..... hmmmm
makes you wonder where most of the wheat is grown in Ukraine
according to this map - most is grown in the East

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2009/02/ukr_12feb2009/wheat_area.htm

where most of the industry is too ....

what do they grow in West Ukraine then I hear you ask ?

morons .... seems to be the answer

morons .... seems to be the answer

And so many bumper crops the last few years... they are favourite victim at the moment so all the rich orcs kids will be going to the best western schools and rubbing shoulders with the best and brightest of the west... of course when ukraine ceases to be useful they will find their passwords don't work and all the locks are changed... hope they keep enough money aside for airfare home.