Russian Economy General News: #12

Mishustin called de-dollarization a priority for the Russian economy, 20.05.2022.

Mishustin: de-dollarization of the Russian economy remains a priority.

Work on the de-dollarization of the economy remains the focus of attention of the Russian authorities. This was announced on May 20 by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin at an online meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of the CIS countries.

“The focus remains on the work on de-dollarization, on strengthening economic and technological sovereignty,” said the head of the Russian government.

According to Mishustin, Russia considers it important to do everything so that the actions of unfriendly countries do not affect economic cooperation within the CIS.

“We propose to unite efforts within the framework of the Commonwealth and make more active use of proven multilateral mechanisms,” he stressed.

He drew attention to the fact that Western sanctions against Russia are illegitimate, the West wants to paralyze trade relations with the Russian Federation. The goal of unfriendly countries is to limit Russia's sovereignty and maintain the illusion of US and collective West dominance in the global economy and politics.

On April 7, the British newspaper Financial Times reported that Western sanctions against Russia, including Moscow 's foreign exchange reserves , could damage confidence in the dollar and change the global financial landscape. The publication noted that the actions of the United States, with a high probability, will contribute to the emergence of an alternative economic system.

On April 5, international analyst Boyan Chukov said that the role of the Russian Federation in the global process of getting out of the sphere of influence of the dollar is very important. He recalled that Russia had already started trading with China and India in national currencies. If we count the population of these two countries, then we can say that already half of the planet has ceased to depend on the dollar.

On March 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would accept payments for exported gas in rubles. He clarified that gas supplies will continue in accordance with the volumes and prices, the pricing principles fixed in the contracts concluded earlier.

Russia's decision to abandon payments for gas with unfriendly countries in dollars and euros is historic, said State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin on the same day. According to him, without this decision it is impossible to create the financial and economic sovereignty of Russia.

https://iz.ru/1337445/2022-05-20/mishustin-nazval-dedollarizatciiu-prioritetom-ekonomiki-rossii

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/20/mcdonalds-exiting-russia-after-32-years-is-the-end-of-an-era.html

Picture reminds me of the epic fail of the late USSR. Traded an Empire built on tens of millions of lives and blood, sweat, and toil for blue jeans, McDonalds, and the soap opera Santa Barbera.

How the ruble was tempered: what caused a new round of strengthening the national currency, by Rosa Almakunova for Izvestia. 20.05.2022.

Experts expect that in order to increase budget revenues, the Central Bank may go for early removal of restrictions.

The Bank of Russia may agree to an early removal of restrictions in order to balance the exchange rate and return it to the equilibrium level of 75 rubles / $, according to analysts interviewed by Izvestia. On May 20, the national currency strengthened against the American one to 57.07 rubles - the maximum since April 2018, and against the European one - to a record 59.02 rubles since 2017 . This is due to the excess supply of currency over demand. As well as the approaching tax period for exporters and the transition to paying for Russian gas in rubles, experts explained. According to their forecasts, if the current restrictions continue, in the coming months the exchange rate may drop to the range of 50–55 rubles/$.

Again a record

On Friday, during trading on the Moscow Exchange, the Russian currency immediately strengthened to 57.07 rubles / $, which was a new record since April 2018. At the same time, the euro for the first time since April 2017 fell to 59.02 rubles / €. During the trading day the ruble fluctuated around the same values ​​and by 16:40 traded at 59.92 and 62.10 respectively.

The main factor in the strengthening of the ruble is the significant sales of foreign currency by exporters before the MET payments for 600 billion rubles next week, Yury Popov, a strategist for the markets of currencies and interest rates at SberCIB Investment Research, explains: Europe's transition to the gas payment scheme for rubles also affects . The immediate reason for the decline in the dollar was the large-scale sales of the euro against the ruble , Oleg Syrovatkin, a leading analyst at Otkritie Investments, agreed. Since the European currency is declining against the Russian one, the American one should also be declining in order to keep the EUR/USD cross rate in line with external markets, he explained.

Such a sharp drawdown of currencies suggests that the situation with imports has not improved and companies have not yet found alternative ways to replace traditional logistics links . The reconfiguration of the economy will last another 12-18 months, says Sergey Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service.

The exchange rate of the ruble is also affected by the obligatory sale by companies of 80% of foreign exchange earnings, and high prices for raw materials , said Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank. At the same time, the demand for the currency fell sharply due to sanctions restrictions - imports shrank, foreign investment and tourist trips abroad decreased, he added.

You can't take it off

Meanwhile, the excessive strengthening of the ruble reduces the income of Russian exporters and the budget , Mikhail Vasilyev notes. In the coming weeks, the Central Bank will rather continue to soften the rule on the mandatory sale of exporters' proceeds and currency restrictions for residents , but this may not be enough to reverse the ruble, the expert admitted. Now in Russia there are restrictions of the Central Bank on the sale of cash dollars and euros to individuals, except for those received at the cash desks of banks since April 9. This ban also applied to other cash currencies, but since May 20, the regulator has softened it with the exception of US and EU currencies. At the same time, the limit on the export of money abroad continues to be maintained - up to $10,000 per person.

There is also a requirement for exporters to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings. As an indulgence, the regulator allowed them to sell money no later than 60 business days from the date of crediting to accounts in authorized banks.

According to the chief analyst of Sovcombank, no easing of measures is expected for non-residents in the coming quarters. At the same time, the Moscow Exchange announced its intention to launch a separate trading mode for them at the end of June - now they cannot freely make transactions with securities. It is assumed that the ban on the withdrawal of funds abroad will continue.

Cancellation of the rules for the sale or withdrawal of cash dollars and euros may not have any effect , since it no longer depends on the Central Bank, but on the intentions of the EU and the USA to limit any supply of their cash currency to Russia, the director of the department for work agreed with shares of Sistema Capital Management Company Konstantin Asaturov. However, even if the regulator takes such a step, the banks simply may not have cash, he added.

Judging by the statements of the head of the Central Bank following the results of the April meeting, the removal of restrictions on cash dollars and euros is hardly possible before September. However, the rapid strengthening of the ruble may force the regulator to take such measures ahead of plans , - Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit, admitted.

The Bank of Russia is pursuing a prudent conservative policy towards capital controls as the sanctions turbulence is far from over , NRA's Sergei Grishunin said. There also remains high uncertainty regarding the payment of external debt and the blocking of gas and oil exports, which makes early removal of restrictions on the movement of capital unlikely, he concluded.

Prospects and risks

In the coming weeks , the strengthening of the ruble may stop , Yuri Popov from Sberbank believes. The fact is that in June three-month deposits opened in March at high rates will be repaid . Also, taking into account the recent strengthening of the ruble , the demand for currency from individuals may rise sharply , which will put some pressure on the exchange rate, he said, adding that in March, against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the ruble, individuals sold foreign currency for 570 billion rubles in net terms and in June demand it can be comparable.

According to the expert, after the increased demand of individuals for currency is saturated - closer to the second half of June, the strengthening of the ruble may resume , especially if exports from Russia remain high. It is possible that under these conditions, at the end of the second quarter and at the beginning of the third quarter, the ruble may strengthen to levels of about 50 per dollar.

The Russian currency may continue to grow in the next few months and gradually move into the range of 50-55 against the dollar and 52-57 against the euro , predicted Mikhail Vasiliev. In the meantime, its strengthening helps to reduce the cost of imported goods, slow down inflation, the stable control of which makes it possible to reduce the key rate, make money cheaper and support economic growth, the analyst noted. Also, a strong ruble is beneficial for importers and consumers, as it makes foreign goods cheaper and more accessible, he added.

According to Vladimir Evstifeev, the dollar exchange rate at the level of 75 rubles looks like an equilibrium in the current situation . The forecast for June for the pair USD/RUB is 65–67 rubles, EUR/RUB is 68–70, he noted. Closer to autumn, the national currency will be higher than the current levels, says Alexander Potavin, an analyst at the Finam group. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, the average dollar exchange rate by the end of 2022 is expected to be at the level of 76 rubles.

https://iz.ru/1337507/roza-almakunova/kak-zakalialsia-rubl-chto-stalo-prichinoi-novogo-raunda-ukrepleniia-natcvaliuty

calripson wrote:https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/20/mcdonalds-exiting-russia-after-32-years-is-the-end-of-an-era.html

Picture reminds me of the epic fail of the late USSR. Traded an Empire built on tens of millions of lives and blood, sweat, and toil for blue jeans, McDonalds, and the soap opera Santa Barbera.

Well that was only temporary, fortunately. But there is work still to be done.

Picture reminds me of the epic fail of the late USSR. Traded an Empire built on tens of millions of lives and blood, sweat, and toil for blue jeans, McDonalds, and the soap opera Santa Barbera

They had been told if you give up communism they would be welcomed into the international community with open arms... they assumed they would withdraw their armies from Eastern Europe and western militaries would withdraw from western europe back to their own borders (french and uk forces in germany and US forces in europe would all go home), and there would be a common trading market from the atlantic to the pacific for the new eurasian group of new allies.

US couldn't tolerate that of course... the EU with Russian resources... WTF would they need the US for?

They needed Russia more to be the boogey man to justify their occupation of Japan and South Korea and Europe and lots of other places it doesn't make sense to have them located, than they needed Russian cooperation and friendship.

So bad guy they remained and became an excuse for them to colonise eastern europe and former Soviet states etc etc.

Now it seems to have led to them completely undermining the core of their success... the US dollar.

Give a 15 year old kid a credit card and you end up with the US at the moment.

calripson wrote:https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/20/mcdonalds-exiting-russia-after-32-years-is-the-end-of-an-era.html

Picture reminds me of the epic fail of the late USSR. Traded an Empire built on tens of millions of lives and blood, sweat, and toil for blue jeans, McDonalds, and the soap opera Santa Barbera.

I have been in a MC Donald only two times in my life and I really can't stand the smell there. I do not dislike a burger in a proper burger place every once in a while (e.g 3/4 times a year) but I keep away from those American chains like Mc Donalds and burger king (or KFC, even if they have different products). I enjoy meat, but I want real meat, possibly  from free range animal husbandry, and not from animals not kept all the time inside stables.  (In Germany there is a Haltungsform classification where 1 is the worst and 4 is the premium (free range, normally associated also to better food for the animals).

https://www.myjdrr.com/animal-husbandry-labelling-things-to-know-before-buying-meat/

McDonald's burger are absolutely not healthy

https://www.thankyourbody.com/mcdonalds-hamburger/

Luckily they do not use anymore "pink slime" since 2011 but they are still made with horrible quality products.

https://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/mcdonald-confirms-no-longer-using-pink-slime-chemicals-171209662.html

It is sad to see so many kids and young adults liking to go to such horrible chains instead of preferring other places... A few years ago I was in Kiev and many of the locals I met insisted to go to McDonald's to grab something to eat. I tried to propose something like the Ukrainian chain puzata hata (a local food chain with decent ucrainian food, similar to the mu mu chain in Moscow (by the way, did you guys tried it?), thinking it was a money issue, but they were actually almost brainwashed.

Anyway the last burger place I visited had only meat from free range husbandry, bio bread buns and home made sauces. It is of course more expensive than McDonald's, but at least you can enjoy it.

Really I cannot understand why mcdonalds is so visited even in Italy... As if we did not have any better alternative

Thought that this would be of interest, from the IMF. Note Russia is nearly equal to Germany on PPP.

Really I cannot understand why mcdonalds is so visited even in Italy... As if we did not have any better alternative

I do have a weakness for KFC but then I have always liked fried chicken.

I don't normally get McDs by choice and when dragged there by friends I am normally disappointed and don't feel very well afterwards... it is not really filling at all.

AFAIK they use local ingredients which means free range everything...

I would say advertising and also culture play a big part...

Thought that this would be of interest, from the IMF. Note Russia is nearly equal to Germany on PPP.

Interesting result for BRICSA countries... getting Indonesia to join and giving South Africa a boost in regards to trade and cooperation so they can climb that ladder too would be good for the world moving forward...

Hi guys, someone posted recently a graphic about Russia's income from gas/oil after sanctions compared to prior years. I can't find it. Can someone point me to it, please?

lancelot wrote:I expect Russian industrial production to keep increasing regardless of what you hear the doom and gloomers say.
The market just lost a lot of imports and Russian industry will kick into overgear to replace the lack of supply. If you were a small factory with just a couple of clients suddenly a huge vacuum exists and you can expand. This will become more evident in two years. Which is about the time you need to put a new factory into operation. Several will spring up all over Russia.

Many imports will come from Turkey instead of the EU. For proximity reasons. Others might come from Iran and transport facilities to improve transport with Iran will increase. The North South corridor to India via Iran will also see more traction. Advanced industrial products which Turkey or Iran cannot supply will initially come from China. But logistics expenses, and the fact the market was burnt by the West before, will make people setup factories to replace a lot of imports. Some of the more complex products might take longer, perhaps five years, but you will see the market adjust.

The unemployment, I expect it to climb up higher over the next month, as a lot of foreign owned companies are still paying salaries for people who are effectively laid off and not working. A lot of those people will have difficulty finding jobs. But come fall a lot of them will likely be employed.

True yet Russian govt has to keep wheels running. The problems are mainly in middle tier administration which can slow down even the best govt decrees or laws' implementation.

Small company as you mentioned needs also customers willing to buy (looks like many "efficient managers" always will prefer foreign over Russian stuff) and money too expand production. Using own money to do it takes so long that competition will eat you in between.

lancelot wrote:https://www.autostat.ru/news/51719

The share of the "Chinese" in the Russian car market in May was almost 17%
Automakers from China continue to increase their share in the Russian market – in May 2022, it reached 16.9%. Such data was reported by experts of the agency "AUTOSTAT" after processing and analyzing the relevant information of JSC "Electronic Passport" (EPTS).
.

do they count Volvo as well? :d

Werewolf wrote:Hi guys, someone posted recently a graphic about Russia's income from gas/oil after sanctions compared to prior years. I can't find it. Can someone point me to it, please?

In the first 5 months of this year, Russia received more money from gas and oil exports than in the whole of 2020.

Many of those foreign owned businesses like McDonalds are likely to continue operating so those jobs wont be lost... hopefully they will adapt and become more Russian and also more healthy... though it is the unhealthy nature of American fast food companies that appeals to most people anyway.

There is a whole world of foods out there they could experiment with selling as something a bit different from what they have at home and could certainly go for healthier meals and snacks too.

There is a massive need for construction material, vehicles and manpower in the new regions. The implementation of a reconstruction program will boost the economy.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
True yet Russian govt has to keep wheels running. The problems are mainly in middle tier administration which can slow down even the best govt decrees or laws' implementation.

As i pointed out in another thread mid tier administration is Russian deep state. A lot of "dinosaur survivors", as i like to call them, need to be replaced with competent and younger technocrats.

JohninMK wrote:Thought that this would be of interest, from the IMF. Note Russia is nearly equal to Germany on PPP.

Russia's PPP GDP is easily over 6 trillion.  

A problem with PPP is that it does not take into account structural differences in the economy.   The US has offshored its
manufacturing.   Russia has not.   A lot of the 20 trillion US GDP comes from the BS "finance industry".   Note that there
are numbers for this industry that make it look small, but we covered this topic before.   To assess its size one has to
dig through the US official statistics as it is split up into many different parts.  

As I keep harping on: the physical economy matters.   Russia has a physical economy much larger than the GDP figures
indicate.   This is like the nonsense that the energy (oil, etc.) fraction of the US GDP has shrunk since the 1970s and thus
that its economy is more decoupled from energy inputs.   Total BS.  Without oil the whole freaking economy cannot run
and that includes the "finance industry".

Most western "experts" believe that bigger GDP numbers mean bigger economy. But the german GDP is only bigger (nominal and PPP)
as the russian one because we are paying one of the highest gasoline prices in Europe and one of the highest electricity bills in the whole
world.

This stuff is so cheap in Russia, just like many other things (at least compared to the "developed" western economies). Russian politicans
want to boost the GDP numbers? Raise the cost of living! Easy as that. Stupid Russians! (Just kidding)

As i pointed out in another thread mid tier administration is Russian deep state. A lot of "dinosaur survivors", as i like to call them, need to be replaced with competent and younger technocrats.

Is that true though... those dinosaurs remember the 1990s and what the west tried to do to Russia... younger more western educated and oriented people would not be competent to run Russia these days because Russia needs to break away from the west and find its own way... and China and India need to do the same.

The BRICSA countries are not creating an alternative to the west, they are breaking the western habit of adopting US culture... the sad thing about the current version of the US led west is that the UK and France and Germany and Italy etc etc all have to give up their culture and adopt US values and morals (which are more flexible than any rubber or jelly you have ever seen)...

BRICSA is not about replacing the US... it is about keeping your own culture and your own values... share them with others if they ask but otherwise mind your own business.

The west should not be telling Putin to love gay people or China to stop harassing their muslims until they are ready to receive advice from Russia and China about their history of intolerance and abuse to their own and others... and that will take some time.

The Bank of Russia returned the key rate to pre-crisis values., 10.06.2022.

The Central Bank at a scheduled meeting of the Board of Directors lowered the key rate to 9.5% per annum. After an emergency increase at the end of February, the rate returned to pre-crisis levels again.

The Board of Directors of the Central Bank decided to cut the key rate from 11% to 9.5%, the regulator said in a statement. This is the fourth consecutive easing of monetary policy. After a record rate increase to 20% at the end of February, the Bank of Russia reduced the rate by 3 percentage points three times, twice this decision was unplanned . Now it has returned with pre-crisis values ​​- before the February increase, the key rate was 9.5%.

The reason for the new cut in the key rate was a significant slowdown in price growth. In the week from May 28 to June 3, deflation was recorded in Russia for the second time in a month - prices fell by 0.01%, follows from Rosstat data. Earlier, deflation was observed in the week from May 14 to May 20, when prices fell by 0.02%. On May 26, after the publication of these data, the Central Bank at an unscheduled but previously announced meeting of the Board of Directors lowered the key rate from 14 to 11%.

https://www.rbc.ru/finances/10/06/2022/62a1b6509a794769c5c5c206

An experiment to create a domestic "tetrapack" has begun in Russia, 15.06.2022.

In Russia, they are working on the creation of domestic packaging for products - analogues of aseptic packaging Tetra Pak ("tetrapak") and PurePak, providing a long shelf life, said Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko, who oversees the agro-industrial complex. She assured that "we will not return to aluminum cans."

Abramchenko told RBC that the experiment aimed at “marrying” the domestic pulp and paper industry and product manufacturers, that is, creating a synergistic effect between the timber industry and the food industry in order to replace imported packaging with domestic one, is in the active phase.

Among the participants in the experiment, the Deputy Prime Minister names the Mondi group (it owns the Syktyvkar timber industry complex - a pulp and paper mill in Komi) and dairy products manufacturers - for example, the Educational and Experimental Dairy Plant of the VGMHA named after. N.V. Vereshchagin" (produces milk and butter under the brand name "Vologda from Vologda").

According to the vice-premier, the new domestic packaging may go into serial production this year. The first batches of domestic PurePak packaging board have already been purchased for the dairy industry. “As far as I know, Vologda milk can already be purchased in such packaging,” says Abramchenko.

“We hope that the experiment will be successful. Maybe there will not be that beautiful white packaging that is familiar to the eye - it will be gray, as we call it, “environmentally friendly”, but it will be ours, domestic,” says Abramchenko. She emphasizes that the quality of the products will not change: “It is important that the quality and safety of what is packaged in this package will not be affected in any way. And we will not return to aluminum cans.”

In parallel with increasing the output of packaging, Russian manufacturers are testing domestic inks, in particular, those produced by Gangut, ABV Flexo, and Print Color. Printing inks are also included in the list of goods for parallel imports, adds Abramchenko.

In June, Swedish authorities banned Tetra Pak from exporting its products to Russia. As Dagens Nyheter reported, Tetra Pak and several other Swedish companies asked the country's authorities to exempt them from EU sanctions in order to continue exporting to Russia. Tetra Pak explained this as humanitarian reasons, since the company produces "seven out of ten packages for milk and juices", including for baby food. But the Swedish authorities did not consider the company's arguments to be conclusive evidence. Tetra Pak's head of communications for Northern Europe, Eva Rodlich, warned that the stoppage of exports could lead to nationalization of the company's Russian assets, giving Russia "access to technology it doesn't currently have."

As Mikhail Charny, an expert of the working group of the National Technology Initiative (NTI), noted, it is possible to completely replace imported components for office paper in Russia and create packaging similar to “tetrapack” in three to six months.

https://vz.ru/news/2022/6/15/1163062.html