The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

This is an military analysis of the Russian/Ukraine situation; what do you guys think?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/military-experts-told-us-think-153648160.html

The experience part is questionable, there hasn't been heavy fighting for years in Donbass but they do have good instructors.

In terms of equipment, all of it is old but it can still pose a threat to the Russians has most of their gear is just modernized soviet era.

It would depend on Russia's ability to find and destroy the tanks and arty.

The article is okay I'd give it a 6/10

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The experience part is questionable, there hasn't been heavy fighting for years in Donbass but they do have good instructors.

In terms of equipment, all of it is old but it can still pose a threat to the Russians has most of their gear is just modernized soviet era.

It would depend on Russia's ability to find and destroy the tanks and arty.

The article is okay I'd give it a 6/10

It has always been about the 4 F's but the article sounds fluffy to me.

franco wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The experience part is questionable, there hasn't been heavy fighting for years in Donbass but they do have good instructors.

In terms of equipment, all of it is old but it can still pose a threat to the Russians has most of their gear is just modernized soviet era.

It would depend on Russia's ability to find and destroy the tanks and arty.

The article is okay I'd give it a 6/10

It has always been about the 4 F's but the article sounds fluffy to me.

The main arguments are valid the problem is its taking leaps in assumptions to but to be fair until the conflict happens all opinions, for the most part, are assumptions.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The experience part is questionable, there hasn't been heavy fighting for years in Donbass but they do have good instructors.

In terms of equipment, all of it is old but it can still pose a threat to the Russians has most of their gear is just modernized soviet era.

It would depend on Russia's ability to find and destroy the tanks and arty.

The article is okay I'd give it a 6/10

Nothing revealing in that article, typical guess that anyone could have written from their desk....dont you think?

gbu48098 wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:The experience part is questionable, there hasn't been heavy fighting for years in Donbass but they do have good instructors.

In terms of equipment, all of it is old but it can still pose a threat to the Russians has most of their gear is just modernized soviet era.

It would depend on Russia's ability to find and destroy the tanks and arty.

The article is okay I'd give it a 6/10

Nothing revealing in that article, typical guess that anyone could have written from their desk....dont you think?

Most articles tend not to reveal things and most of the time those that do are usually lying.

The article was geared towards a general audience and most people don't know anything about the military.

Like if I asked a random ass person on the street what "trousers tactic" are maybe less than one percent would know.

So it's understandable it didn't go into heavy detail, this is Yahoo, not some military site

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Most articles tend not to reveal things and most of the time those that do are usually lying.

The article was geared towards a general audience and most people don't know anything about the military.

Like if I asked a random ass person on the street what the "trousers tactic" maybe less than one percent would know.

So it's understandable it didn't go into heavy detail, this is Yahoo not some military site

Ya, comments used to be the most fun thing on yahoo but now that they disabled as it was overwhelmingly Trump....no reason to even kill time on that site. Anyway, looks like its status quo in that region with Ukraine losing azov access...so net for Russia on that one. Net for Nato on getting more deeper and extended presence in Ukraine.

andalusia wrote:This is an military analysis of the Russian/Ukraine situation; what do you guys think?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/military-experts-told-us-think-153648160.html

All I saw was a puff piece written by some back office hack whose prime result was a few minutes of self pleasure in a corner. Business Insider is like titter, not a reliable source in any way, shape or form.

andalusia wrote:This is an military analysis of the Russian/Ukraine situation; what do you guys think?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/military-experts-told-us-think-153648160.html

This is just the usual biased view you'd typically get from your average western outlet.
Besides, I don't even think it provides enough detail to qualify as an "analysis".

Almost seems like you can't get published on a western media outlet unless you cast Putin as a mysterious and diabolical bond villain.

The experience and morale of Ukrainian soldiers is largely irrelevant. They haven't been fighting the Russian military either but mostly just shelling their own people who they've developed some keen hate for and convinced themselves that they're all Russian terrorists.

Any such war will be decided by encirclement, air-power, jamming, that sort of thing

Russia has the initiative on every single aspect. It can choose when and where to advance, what to target.

This is all hypothetical, again. I trust the point has been brought home to Kiev and they're not about to embark on any glorious adventures.

franco wrote:The Air power for those regions mentioned above have:

- 5 squadrons Su-30SM's
- 5 squadrons Su-34
- 4 squadrons Su-27SM3/SM/P
- 5 squadrons Su-25SM3/SM
- 3 squadrons Su-24M's
- 5 Army Aviation regiments / brigades (~11 squadrons attack helicopters )




The Navy additionally have 6 submarines and 11 warships in the Black and Caspian Seas that have Kalibr's.

if im not wrong 1 squadron has 12 fighter jets ? Or it's more...

12 fighters.

Starting to get some artillery ranging shots in perhaps?

Dean O'Brien - BA (Hons)
@DeanoBeano1
·
4h
High voltage sign
Breaking
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The Ukrainian Armed Forces are shelling the outskirts of Gorlovka, near the settlement of the Gagarina mine.  They using 152 mm artillery along with 120 mm and 82 mortars.  Footage filmed by local resident.

https://twitter.com/DeanoBeano1/status/1385482101689102342

EDIT

Maybe just to impress

spriters
@spriters11
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11h
The Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out a demonstration shelling of Donbas for Polish and Lithuanian guests, and the Ukrainian armed forces opened fire on Donbas precisely in the places where the foreign delegation arrived to visit the "OOS" zone.

Sorry if this should go to the humour thread

Former Deputy Minister of the Government of Ukraine:

Any military expert will tell you that two US Navy destroyers in one salvo can destroy the entire Black Sea Fleet (BSF) of the Russian Federation.

According to Grymchak, in the event of Russian maneuvers on the Black Sea, Ukrainian ships "just need to track the movements of each of them." This, according to the ex-member of the Ukrainian government, will help destroy Russian ships.

Grymchak:

Despite the might fleet USA, we must understand that no one will fight for us. Therefore, in the end, if the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet violate our sea borders, then we will destroy them.

According to Grymchak, "as many missiles as needed" will be used for this.

It is worth noting that in August 2019, Grymchak was detained by SBU officers on suspicion of fraud. The fight against corruption in Ukraine is carried out in such a way that now Grymchak is a frequenter of Ukrainian broadcasts, where they talk about "Russian aggression", preferring not to mention the case of the ex-deputy minister himself.

https://en.topwar.ru/182341-ukrainskij-jeks-zamministra-ljuboj-jekspert-vam-skazhet-chto-dva-jesminca-vms-ssha-odnim-zalpom-mogut-unichtozhit-ves-chf-rf.html

I guess we can assume what kind of military experts he is consulting

This is the sort of retardation that is rampant among the Kiev regimeniks when it comes to economics as well. They think that totally
destroying the economy of Ukraine that existed in 2013 based on the Soviet legacy is a viable policy. A whole new, Ukr economy will
grow like mushrooms after a rain.

I can't remember but how many antiship missile systems are stationed in Crimea? Then there is of course Russia's aviation for anti ship. Then there is Russia's kilo submarines, etc.

miketheterrible wrote:I can't remember but how many antiship missile systems are stationed in Crimea?  Then there is of course Russia's aviation for anti ship. Then there is Russia's kilo submarines, etc.

My friend, even if I knew, which of course I don't, I'd never say a word about what nasty little devices are lurking in the darkness nor what they are nor where they are. OpSec, you know. Only thing I will confirm is Sophia, my blue girl, is snoring at my feet as I type. Or is it Ye'katarina, our black/white girl? Or Ksenya, our blue kat thing? Don't remember, comes with age.

auslander wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:I can't remember but how many antiship missile systems are stationed in Crimea?  Then there is of course Russia's aviation for anti ship. Then there is Russia's kilo submarines, etc.

My friend, even if I knew, which of course I don't, I'd never say a word about what nasty little devices are lurking in the darkness nor what they are nor where they are. OpSec, you know. Only thing I will confirm is Sophia, my blue girl, is snoring at my feet as I type. Or is it Ye'katarina, our black/white girl? Or Ksenya, our blue kat thing? Don't remember, comes with age.

Yeah, opsec is indeed important. Was just speculating. I know though as you say, mother, will come out on top.

Best wishes to you.

miketheterrible wrote:I can't remember but how many antiship missile systems are stationed in Crimea? Then there is of course Russia's aviation for anti ship. Then there is Russia's kilo submarines, etc.

Plus the fact that the USN does not have viable AShM against Russian AD, even if their carriers could stay alive in the Black Sea more than five minutes, which they cannot. Embarrassing is an understatement

Paying mind to crazy is a useless endeavor.

The West does short-term.

Russia, China and Iran do long-term.

You'll start to see the indicators if you take a step back and look at history.

First look at 1999 - 2021 for Russia. Then look at 1993 - 2021 for China.

A lot of the discussion in this thread is about short-term changes that are mostly trivial. You're paying too much mind what the discussion is right now, rather than what the big picture is; often reiterating the same over and over.

miketheterrible wrote:

auslander wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:I can't remember but how many antiship missile systems are stationed in Crimea?  Then there is of course Russia's aviation for anti ship. Then there is Russia's kilo submarines, etc.

My friend, even if I knew, which of course I don't, I'd never say a word about what nasty little devices are lurking in the darkness nor what they are nor where they are. OpSec, you know. Only thing I will confirm is Sophia, my blue girl, is snoring at my feet as I type. Or is it Ye'katarina, our black/white girl? Or Ksenya, our blue kat thing? Don't remember, comes with age.

Yeah, opsec is indeed important. Was just speculating. I know though as you say, mother, will come out on top.

Best wishes to you.

From open sources there is the 15th Coastal Rocket brigade in Sevastopol with a unit of Bastion, unit of Bal and the mountain silo's of Progress AShM. Across the Kerch Strait outside of Anapa, is the 12th Coastal Rocket brigade with 2 units of Bastion and 1 of Bal. Mother is talking about adding another unit of Bastion for the 15th brigade and she likes to make the NATO ship Captains lose sleep whenever they enter the Black Sea with a volley of 92 missiles from the shore units alone... life span of any NATO ship would be very short just in case shooting started

franco wrote: From open sources there is the 15th Coastal Rocket brigade in Sevastopol with a unit of Bastion, unit of Bal and the mountain silo's of Progress AShM. Across the Kerch Strait outside of Anapa, is the 12th Coastal Rocket brigade with 2 units of Bastion and 1 of Bal. Mother is talking about adding another unit of Bastion for the 15th brigade and she likes to make the NATO ship Captains lose sleep whenever they enter the Black Sea with a volley of 92 missiles from the shore units alone... life span of any NATO ship would be very short just in case shooting started  

Even an amoeba crawling through the remains of protozoan mush knows Black Sea is a Russian lake and any interlopers have a life span projected in seconds if, or when, the balloon goes up.

Your neighbors to the north are crowing today that the 2 US destroyers sitting in the Aegean have enough firepower to take out the whole Black Sea Fleet in one volley... so what is lower then an amoeba crawling through the remains of protozoan mush

These are the same worthies who say they're going to take back Krimea by force to 'liberate' the poor oppressed inhabitants of same. Good luck on that dream, even the alley cats and stray dogs will fight them to the death, let alone all us 'two legs'.

Looks like they are seriously cranking up the procedure.

ASB News / MILITARY
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@ASBMilitary
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5h
38.000 additional Donbass residents receive Russian passports. Current number stands at 538.000.

Russian state media says by may 2021, 1 million Donbass citizens will receive Russian passports, and 2 million by end of 2021.