The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

If Ukraine enters Nato and Russia does nothing, I think it's a matter of time for Russia to cease to exist.

JohninMK wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:
I'm just curious, do you think that without Crimea, Nato doesn't want Ukraine?

Not sure about NATO as a whole (it seems Germany doesn't want them in) but there are a few reasons why the US has interests in Ukraine:

- with, as you say Crimea, with its controlling position over the Black Sea, now gone probably the most interesting military reason now is flight time to Moscow and ICBM sites, for land attack and ABM missiles mainly.
- another militarily useful is a 'frozen' conflict on Russia's borders allowing both poking Russia with NATO is coming crap as well as a reason for a continuing flow of significant aid (see below).
- excellent military training grounds without the restrictions imposed in the West.
- then politically it is good to have an ally on the Russian border and there are many supporters of Ukraine in Congress.
- then financially the US, via its Word Bank/IMF/EU subsidiaries, has pumped the country full of debt.
- a few juicy jobs for favoured ones.
- and lastly, its endemic and systemic corruption makes it is a brilliant place to launder money, especially the 'put 20% in this bank when you get the money' scam.

is not just germany.
US will never allow Ukraine to join NATO as a full member . the reason is because they don't want to have their hands tied , and be forced to fight Russian army ,right on their borders ,where russia is the strongest and they will be in a major huge disadvantage since every inch of territory of ukraine can be hit by Russian artillery and tactical missile forces , so any military base of NATO or airport inside ukraine can be wiped within the first minute of the fight to start in a major war that they provoke russia to fight.

So US will make up many excuses to not allow ukraine as a full member of NATO , so to not be forced to fight Russia under extremely disadvantage conditions. the same is true for Russia is was forced to fight to defend CUBA is the other way. Russia will need to use nukes to have a chance to defend any place , if it is far from its borders and still can lose. US only need to ukraine ,to destablize Russia ,to drain russia economy , by financing   conflict to fight russia ,to the last ukrainian.

you only need to see the prank , some Russians , played on Senator John McCain when he was alive.
they got his phone number and behaved as ukrainians government , minister of culture or forgot ,which fake identity they gave.  they asked McCain if he could help ukraine to join NATO and he told ,that it was a very complicate long thing , something like that .. so not even McCain who hate Russia was optimistic about the idea.  The west are not fools , they want to fight easy fights , that victory is guarantee, and they will never fight Russia in a direct war close to their borders , with all the nukes and missile power  russia have. No NATO general will commit collective suicide in a frontal war with Russia. That's the whole point of the west recruiting terrorist , financing them ,arming them ,as they do in syria , this is to fight from distance by proxy russia ,while hiding behind other actors

flamming_python wrote:
They also emphatically believed in that old Brzezinskism or Bismarkism or whoever said it - that without the Ukraine, Russia can no longer be an empire.
And the prospect of castrating Russian capabilities to act in the world was certainly a tempting plan for them.

To be honest, those statements have the ground when formed.
When Keiser was considering Ukraine, it possessed the greatest assets of the time. Land and manpower. Land suitable for agriculture, and manpower suitable for cannon fodder. And it was extremely good quality cannon fodder! Ukrainian land worker was not too smart, not educated, but stubborn. A perfect pale to form a line of muskets.
On the other hand, Zibi considered Ukraine as the industrial & workforce core of the Soviet Union. Opposit to Kaisers time, Ukraine was full of well-educated labor, and with almost 50 mln inhabitants, made a difference in the power structure of SU. 1/6 of the population, and 1/3 of the industrial base.
Now, Ukraine is a shadow of its own. Inhabited by 30 mln people, while the rest is for a long time in Russia, Poland or Germany. With the degraded industrial base, polluted environment, even the agrarian base is being depleted
It will take generations to bring Ukraine back to its pre-2014 shape, not to mention any kind of progress.
My guess, they will not recover at all. What is sad, is the misery of the common people. It really makes me cry.
Not everyone jumped like a monkey, but have to eat the fruits of this monkey jumps ...

flamming_python wrote:

They also emphatically believed in that old Brzezinskism or Bismarkism or whoever said it - that without the Ukraine, Russia can no longer be an empire.
And the prospect of castrating Russian capabilities to act in the world was certainly a tempting plan for them.

It's a bit true. Russia can no longer be an empire. It is limited by demographics. The USSR numbered almost 300 million people. the current Russia is only 146 million. China has 1.4 bilions, India has a similar amount, the USA has almost 350 million. These countries have a much larger population. Now China will be the new empire. Russia is a major power, but it is too small for an empire.

Russia does not need to be an empire... an empire means carrying the weak and the stupid...

The Ukraine has spent the last 30 years since leaving the Soviet Union telling itself how different and un-Russian they are and how any problems they had stemmed from Russia being in charge of the Soviet Union... which is ironic because it hardly ever was, and even when it was it was pumping resources into essentially failed states to keep them happy... like the Baltic states etc etc.

Russia is much better off without the Ukraine... the Ukraine is the wests experiment now and they can spend the money to fix it... they really do owe them...

But then they have such a history of smashing countries and then walking away and not paying the bill let alone the tip.

The Ukraine is not going anywhere and will remain Russias neighbour, but while it is in Russias interests that it does not collapse completely perhaps the western model of breaking up Yugoslavia is the solution and bits of the Ukraine can become part of other european countries and the eastern parts currently called rebels can have good trading terms with Russia... it can remain the Ukraine and make its own rules and trade openly with Russia and develop and grow.... once they are healthy and a normal country they can decide to remain a separate country or to join the Russian Federation... no pressure either way... if they don't want to join then they wont be punished like the EU or US would punish them for not doing as they were told.

You know... treat them with respect and allow them to make their own decisions... the opposite of what the western world has been doing up until now with the entire world.

You can get the "polish part" any moment, Garry
That is the point here.
No one neither needs nor wants the piece of crap Ukraine presents itself now.
Eat that, masters of puppets

There is no point in arguing yet again why the coup in Kiev occurred, nor the result. That coup was specifically to get Sevastopol and Krimea, pure and simple. American Navy and Marine cadre were in Sevastopol and Feodosya on the Krim south coast since at least 2006, they were here and in Feodosya when I arrived, I saw them in Sevastopol and actually talked to a few of them and saw them in Feodosya, they were in the orc Marine base. US could give a crap less about Orcland beyond being able to mount some missiles there which would have been in point blank range of Russian units, ergo useless.

The plans for Sevastopol was for the American Black Sea Fleet HQ to be on north side at the west end of Ulitsiya Bogdanova in an extant Russian Spetznaz base actually on Ulitsiya Cheliuskinstev. From Cheliuskinstev west all the land, read Rahdio Gorka Region including the finest beaches in Sevastopol were to become Little USA, and this area went all the way north to the village of Lubimovka on the coast. All the locals were to be put out and the little region virtually closed. The two schools there at the time were to be renovated and modernized, I've actually read the first contracts for new roofs on both schools, one of which was completed and paid for by US.

He who owns Sevastopol and Krimea owns the Black Sea, pure and simple. It was the locals in Sevastopol who said 'no way' when the coup in Kiev reached fruition, we knew what was coming and had already had several altercations both over the years and during the Kiev debacle with the orcs and the orcs came off second best each time.

It wasn't the 'polite young men in green' who took Sevastopol although they were based here, it was the citizens who took Sevastopol and when the time was right handed it to the 'polite young men in green', read Mat Rossiya, on a silver platter. Krimu, that entity took a little more time and work albeit not that much. The orc base in Feodosya was taken in March of '14 by force after negotiations with the orcs. The Americans demanded everyone fight but no way Mother would leave half a regiment of S 300 units extant in Krimu, hence some missing teeth with the US Marines who tried to resist as the Ukrainian Marines honored the surrender they had negotiated. As an aside, 70% of the Ukrainian Spetznaz took the offer and joined Russian Armed Forces.

There was no way Russia would allow a HATO base in Crimea right next to their main grain import/export port at Novorossiysk.
Also the only major port which does not freeze at least part of the year.

auslander wrote:There is no point in arguing yet again why the coup in Kiev occurred, nor the result. That coup was specifically to get Sevastopol and Krimea, pure and simple.

Sure, but do not underestimate the all goals.
To have a "missile defense base" around Schostka and Gluhiv, is a nice ad?
Such nice places over there, wonderful weather conditions, nice landscape, friendly people, as still alive...
Just 1500 km closer to Moscow compare to Redzikowo ...
One could place all the "interceptors" there, targeting Iran's evil attentions, of course.
With universal Mk41s.
Who does not believe the interceptor concept, that is an obvious Putin's spy and should be extermi ... ekhm, I mean, he should jump out of the window, voluntary.

It wasn't the 'polite young men in green' who took Sevastopol although they were based here, it was the citizens who took Sevastopol and when the time was right handed it to the 'polite young men in green', read Mat Rossiya, on a silver platter.

Yeah, the western version of an invasion by masses of polite green men that forced the local population to vote to join Russia under gun point and therefore the region was actually annexed by Russia is impossible to believe.

If the people of the Crimea didn't want those Russian forces to be there they would not be no matter what violence the Russian forces tried to get a different outcome.

More obviously if the people of Crimea wanted Kiev to remain there is not much the Russian troops could do to change that.

The clear facts are that the Russian troops were not supermen who controlled the entire population of a region that were hostile to their presence without firing and killing lots of people. They were disciplined soldiers that knew they had the support and cooperation of the local population and the enemy did not, so all they had to do was keep the peace and keep a cool head and let the vote take place and democracy take its course.

The west should be holding this up as an ideal use of military power where no one got killed and the people got their say and the politicians listened to what the people said and acted on that.

Hopefully at some stage in the near future the people of the Donbass might get the opportunity to do the same if that is what they want, but the critical core of the issue is that they want independence from Kiev... and like the US and EU with Russia, the other side is making the choice for them by isolation and sanction and pushing them away every chance they get.

JohninMK wrote:

GarryB wrote:
Hopefully at some stage in the near future the people of the Donbass might get the opportunity to do the same if that is what they want, but the critical core of the issue is that they want independence from Kiev... and like the US and EU with Russia, the other side is making the choice for them by isolation and sanction and pushing them away every chance they get.

For many years my highlighted part of your comment seems to have been the Master's way. Always back your opponent into a corner by political, sanctions, military pressure so that they are forced into a closer relationship with another of your opponents. Inevitably leading to a total surprise of 1+1=3.

Just shows how virtually unlimited financial power (from the World's Reserve currency) can lead to arrogance and stupidity which spreads like a cancer to some of the vassals, or one in particular in the ME.

quoted just so as to not lose your post

In the news this morning.

He throws a punch, you throw a grenade - it's the Ukrainian way: Crowd runs in terror as brawler throws explosive after taking two hits to the face in street fight
The incident reportedly took place on June 8 in Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine
Two men got into a brawl in front of friends, with one landing punches
The other staggered back, and in a dramatic escalation, pulled out a grenade
A video shows him dropping it on the ground, causing the group to scatter
According to local media reports, five people were injured in the explosion
Since March 2014 and in the aftermath of the Ukrainian revolution, Donbas in eastern Ukraine - on the border with Russia - has seen fighting between Ukraine and Russian separatists.

As a result, there has been an influx of illegal weapons in the country.

According to The Small Arms Survey undertaken in 2017, there were between 3 to 5 million illegal weapons in the country, with reports of military hardware surfacing in the peaceful parts of the country.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9692173/Brawler-throws-grande-taking-two-hits-face-street-fight-Ukraine.html

Since March 2014 and in the aftermath of the Ukrainian revolution, Donbas in eastern Ukraine - on the border with Russia - has seen fighting between Ukraine and Russian separatists.

As a result, there has been an influx of illegal weapons in the country.

According to The Small Arms Survey undertaken in 2017, there were between 3 to 5 million illegal weapons in the country, with reports of military hardware surfacing in the peaceful parts of the country.

Just what I would expect from the UK Daily Fail... Kiev is shelling and bombing regions of the UK but some dick has a hand grenade then of course it must have come from Russia because there is no way possible for any weapons go get to that region any other way... except all the weapons donated by EU and HATO countries to help them murder fellow Ukrainians and of course all the invading Russians they never have any evidence of.

But realistically... if you are surrounded by the sort of friends that are going to let some guy punch you in the face twice not help you out ...and you are carrying a hand grenade... of course you are going to use it... unless you expect to take it to work and use it as a paper weight to stop papers on your desk blowing away when you have your window open... clearly your mates are not going to help you so let them dodge some grenade fragments along with this prick punching you in the face.

Military hardware turning up where there is a conflict is not a surprise... it is quite normal... I seem to remember a photo of some local kids in the Falklands holding up parts of weapons and munitions for a photo in the mid 1980s... {nothing that looked actually dangerous though}.

For many years my highlighted part of your comment seems to have been the Master's way. Always back your opponent into a corner by political, sanctions, military pressure so that they are forced into a closer relationship with another of your opponents. Inevitably leading to a total surprise of 1+1=3.

And it is even worse than that because they follow the very stupid mantra of the enemy of my enemy is my friend... which is just the dumbest thing ever.

The Taleban are just the Mujahedeen from the 1980s with a different name... they are essentially the same people with funding from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and they are fighting the infidels... in the 1980s it was the Soviets, and for the last 20 years it was HATO... but during the 1980s it was American money and stinger missiles and training that went to these guys to fight the Soviets and now they are using those skills to fight the US.

The enemy of my enemy is certainly someone I can use to inflict damage and pain on my enemy but really if that is all we have in common then they are a group I can use but they are not my friend.

Look at all those murdering raping white helmets the west suddenly is in no hurry to rescue from Syria... it seems they are working out their policy was wrong too...

Western policy has been so dumb the last 30 years I am surprised there were not more 11/9s in the wests history.

Of course after Putin and Biden had a chat all those western fake stream media are baying for blood and no all of a sudden maybe Trump wasn't so bad... hahahaha.

The point is that relations could not get worse without the real risk of a war starting, so Biden had little choice really... and it is hilarious that the US MIC that funds the US media does not see the real damage an actual war with Russia would cause...

GarryB wrote:it is hilarious that the US MIC that funds the US media does not see the real damage an actual war with Russia would cause...

The best time the US MIC had was when Ronald Reagan was President and they massively ramped up military spending while not getting into any actual major wars. You don't need to pay for troop deployments and you get the highest possible spending on gadgets. Right now they fear if they get out of the existing Global War that Congress will make deep cuts to the military budget. But I suspect the military will only be really cut once the US Empire collapses. They will just shout the mantra "China, China, China" and the money will continue to flow. Never mind they are on the other side of the Pacific and have shown no intentions of expanding militarily outside their own historical borders whatsoever.

The only reason more 9/11 type situations do not happen is that the US is a continent away from where most of the action is. It will never stop being a major power. But it will stop being a hegemonic power. The economy of the US is in shambles. Partly thanks to people like Ronald Reagan which hollowed out the real economy. If you move all those resources from the real economy into the military of course the real economy suffers. Looking at the state of US infrastructure is a good example of this. It is like everything stopped happening in the late 1960s middle 1970s. Only marginal spending is done to maintain things. The US is in a new Gilded Age and it has neither a Theodore Roosevelt nor a Franklin Delano Roosevelt in sight. We had a Herbert Hoover (Trump) who nearly started a financial collapse with a trade war but he is out. Unlike then we now also have Globalization like the WTO and NAFTA so most of the real production is done outside the US. It has gone to Asia and what could not be moved there is in Mexico. A lot of the large factories which operate in the US are actual foreign companies. So you get European and Japanese car factories in the US while US manufacturers have facilities in Mexico. Even the semiconductor industry to a large degree has moved outside the US and now they have to beg the South Koreans and Taiwanese to make facilities in the US while companies like Intel degrade into the semiconductor equivalent of GM. Sure, a lot of the design work is still done in the US, a lot of the capital and client base is still there. But I think the transition to Asia in the long term is inevitable since most of the future client base is there. If you look at the people who actually work in the tech industry a huge amount of them are Asians working the US anyway.

Russia has been forced to turn to Asia and this has only accelerated the West's decline I think. The European Union has exhausted itself and is facing its own internal contradictions.

Russia don't need to be an empire  ,but at the same time , Russia need to stop those empires ,
seeking to break Russia in many parts and financing terrorist ,nazis and arming them to attack
their military and those nations that Russia placed in danger , by making an alliance with them ,because any nation that allies Russia - that develops close relations with them will be automatically
placed on the hit list.

So Russia don't need to be an empire , but the opposite extreme is also not an option either.
Russia can't be a banana republic , a gas station and food exporter ,while their enemies totally
influence the entire world with their superior bussiness and more attractive culture for young generations.  

that said Russia needs to be a leader in the world , be the ones , in coordination with China ,that leads
the way of the world into the future of nations development.  become the leaders of world development.  ignoring the anglozionist west system ,that include their asian puppet tech giants , is a big mistake , because ignoring the western soft power , is what allows them ,to so easily pull nations into their orbit ,specially young adult generations of voting age.  Had Russia was a modern nation with a modern economy , leading in space explorations and leading the world in real operating business ,in high tech civilian business ,surpassing in sales apple , intel ,amd and western entertainment industry , none of this color revolutions , attracting young adults into the western orbit will have happened.

the best possible form of patriotism , is not achieved by worshipping the past , running victory parades , or even by winning medals at sports. all those things are artificial and temporary.
the strongest form of patriotism , happens ,with a nation being successful  ,leading the world in business In the Present  , leadership and success in the present and plans that start today for the future is what really matters.

This is why all the latin american revolutions have failed , and this is why russia is failing.
this are revolutions of words , of worshipping of the past heroes and past victories , but dot modernize their economies and keep depending and focusing most of their economy in gas stations ,in zero risk business , that nobody cares about , as it is a commodoties , food and energy focused nation ,just like Putin's Russia.  

The world is fucked today , for just one reason , those that are evil , leads the world in nearly everything societies more enjoy and love ,while those nations that complains about the unfairness of the world they created , do nothing to change this , do nothing to counter their system with a more awesome one , than the one the west offer..

Americans offers ukrainians a complete business world ,with high tech gadjets , iphones ,computers ,and their entertainment industry ,things that directly make more fun and more productive their lives. Things that allowed the american economy to be a truly global one , with far more opportunities , In the other side in 20 years , Putin offered what ukrainians? gas discounts ,

who you think the ukrainians adult generation will prefer and choose? this is not a contest ,
the western soft power , business power is planets away superior than Putin's outdated nation business and economy. Russia will never be seen as an option for any country at peace , by just selling gas discounts and weapons. Putin is totally disconnected from reality , almost his entire 20 years of development of russia have been wrong. if most of the russian budget was focused more of his nation investments in pipelines to the west , and better weapons , and meaningless e-penis contest ,that everyone forget a week later they are over.

the True soft power , happens when things last forever , when nations do impressive things ,that awe the entire world , because show the way into the planet future. Any bragging contest ,like putin does of superficial things, or my people can play better hockey ,produce more potatoes ,means nothing for the developed nations in the world.. Even the british queen wanted to meet Jury Gagarin , this are things that really matter ,where russia needs to focus their economy .in leading the world with more amazing development ,more amazing business ,than the ones the west have , things that all your adversaries will envy , and will admit , was a nice one . Is a leadership problem , what makes
Russia , so rejected in the world. The world is asked to pick one is either the anglo west system or russia without any system, and they will naturally , most developed nations will choose the west.
and i can understand that . Europe , and asia will not stop using american dollars ,no matter how much putin cry for it , not even china will , as long the west continue leading the world into the future ,in alliance with their puppet tech colonies in the east.

US offers F-16V to Ukraine air force.

https://defence-blog.com/lockheed-martin-offers-ukraine-f-16-fighter-jet/

Which they will likely get as a loan to Ukraine that will pay US companies to manufacture the fighters for them.
Thing is, I doubt the US will provide the loan like they used to do. What is more likely to happen is the IMF will pay for the fighters.
If they try to do this I think Russia should complain about it. They are a member of the IMF too.
For those who don't know about it all members of the IMF put some money into a pool that is used when some country needs a bail out.
So if they want to use Russian money to buy fighters for Ukraine I think Russia should complain about it.

I agree that they do not need them. Even if they had F-16s they cannot fight Su-35s inside what is effectively the Russian IADS bubble.
Russian radar systems have enough range to cover their entire territory. It is simply suicide. They just need enough aircraft to police their own airspace.
Which they already have.