The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

I don't think most of them are fly worthy you know.

As well, those bases would get iskandered and that's it for those jets. NATO AD has proven to be very inadequate

Godric wrote:fun in games will start in 18 months time when Scotland votes to leave the UK, rUK will lose £120 billion over 30 years on defence spending and if expected Wales and N Ireland follows suit that figure becomes around £250 billion over 30 years £45 billion more than the lifetime cost of Trident 2 meaning England will not be able to afford to have Nukes and afford to run 2 super carriers and to top it off NATZO will lose control over the southern half of the Atlantic Gap as it falls into Scottish maritime waters and London will lose it's seat on the UN permanent security council without Scotland's support without either Scotland or England there is no UK

even if it's just Scotland that leaves the UK London will have a £120 billion defence blackhole over 30 years, no seat in the UN security council and NATZO and London loses control over half of the Atlantic gap as Scotland will not be a NATZO member

and we will be the Ire of America

Have you read Craig Murray on that subject? Much as I am in favour the odds are that it ain't gonna happen.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/12/nicola-sturgeons-motivation/

what?

Natasha Bertrand
@NatashaBertrand
Scoop: The US has information that indicates Russia has prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag
operation in eastern Ukraine, a US official told CNN on Friday, in an attempt to create a pretext for an invasion. Story to come.

twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1482000216471572482

Natasha Bertrand
@NatashaBertrand

The official said the US has evidence that the operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces.

twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1482000218635833345

kvs wrote:Pathetic attempt to frustrate potential Russian counter-NATzO operations in quisling regime occupied Ukraine.

Something's brewing..

A cyber attack now..

Ukraine Was Hit By A Massive Cyberattack And The Hackers Warned The Country To “Be Afraid And Expect Worse”

KYIV – After days of unsuccessful negotiations between the US, NATO, and Russia, hackers took down dozens of Ukrainian government websites and posted an ominous warning on several for the country to “be afraid and expect worse.” The cyberattack occurred overnight on Thursday and Friday morning, and it took down more than a dozen official websites, disrupting government work and raising questions about whether Russia was signaling that a new offensive against Ukraine was getting underway. Oleh Nikolenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, told BuzzFeed News that government specialists were working to restore the websites Friday morning and the Ukrainian Cyberpolice Department had opened a criminal investigation. “It’s too early to draw conclusions,” he said. "We are assessing the damage caused by the attack."

buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/ukraine-cyberattack-russia-troops-border

AZ-5 wrote:Something's brewing..

In the mind of the West it is probably better to use Ukraine for something useful like giving the Russians a proper response for their insolence, before that corpse of a country finally rots away.

AZ-5 wrote:

kvs wrote:Pathetic attempt to frustrate potential Russian counter-NATzO operations in quisling regime occupied Ukraine.

Something's brewing..

A cyber attack now..

Ukraine Was Hit By A Massive Cyberattack And The Hackers Warned The Country To “Be Afraid And Expect Worse”

KYIV – After days of unsuccessful negotiations between the US, NATO, and Russia, hackers took down dozens of Ukrainian government websites and posted an ominous warning on several for the country to “be afraid and expect worse.” The cyberattack occurred overnight on Thursday and Friday morning, and it took down more than a dozen official websites, disrupting government work and raising questions about whether Russia was signaling that a new offensive against Ukraine was getting underway. Oleh Nikolenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, told BuzzFeed News that government specialists were working to restore the websites Friday morning and the Ukrainian Cyberpolice Department had opened a criminal investigation. “It’s too early to draw conclusions,” he said. "We are assessing the damage caused by the attack."

buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/ukraine-cyberattack-russia-troops-border

Russia doesn't do spooky messages

If it acts then it acts, without warning

If these actions are Russia's doing, then they're just trying to rattle the cage a little. But doing that would be pointless, as the other side aren't idiots and will recognize the theater.

Probably the CIA's own doing. Cyberattacks. What a joke.

Minsk 2 needs to be enforced. Ukrop forces should be removed from the contact line to 75 km behind.

A bm30 salvo across the contact line will be good to start. No invasion.

If ukrops get stupid we can proceed from there, but that is where it should start, enforcing minsk 2

There were reports coming from the US saying that CIA trained assholes will fight in Ukraine, should "Russia invade Ukraine", I think this is to say that CIA will up their operations in Ukraine and Donbass.

Funny how the situation in Ukraine and Taiwan are getting hot at the same time... we don't talk a lot about it but China is very near to launch an operation there.

They have been pushing Russia in an alliance with China for years and seems they succeeded. They will start two front and US won't move for either. China also needs a war because of economic crisis (Evergrande is a fiasco) but also they could take over Taiwan's microchip manufacturing plants and rule the world with their products.

Let's not forget the fall of the dollar that is being challenged by other currencies but also by poor people selling it for cryptos.

Seems like a false flag will happen anyway its spun.

The Olympics timing would be chef kiss for the Americans.

JohninMK wrote:

Godric wrote:fun in games will start in 18 months time when Scotland votes to leave the UK, rUK will lose £120 billion over 30 years on defence spending and if expected Wales and N Ireland follows suit that figure becomes around £250 billion over 30 years £45 billion more than the lifetime cost of Trident 2 meaning England will not be able to afford to have Nukes and afford to run 2 super carriers and to top it off NATZO will lose control over the southern half of the Atlantic Gap as it falls into Scottish maritime waters and London will lose it's seat on the UN permanent security council without Scotland's support without either Scotland or England there is no UK

even if it's just Scotland that leaves the UK London will have a £120 billion defence blackhole over 30 years, no seat in the UN security council and NATZO and London loses control over half of the Atlantic gap as Scotland will not be a NATZO member

and we will be the Ire of America

Have you read Craig Murray on that subject? Much as I am in favour the odds are that it ain't gonna happen.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/12/nicola-sturgeons-motivation/

Craig Murray is a bit hit n miss and does have an axe to grind after being imprisoned. Now released.

NATO membership will be decided by the Scottish people.

I doubt rUK (England maybe Wales/ NI) will suffer in terms of NATO membership, only sticking issue will be the nukes, and I doubt England will want to lose them and USA won't want to lose them either, there will most likely be a time frame Scotland will have to be seen to be reasonable. So they will most likely give England 3yrs for removal of nukes this will give England time to build a suitable structure etc and give Scotland a bargaining chip and maybe lease payments for that time although a deal elsewhere on something else will most likely be agreed to compensate. England would lose large maritime border and yes some funding, but they would also lose troops and the costs associated with that, so it should pan out ok in terms of lost revenue (Scotland's contribution to armed forces), but I agree that aircraft carriers would be an issue as currently struggle with that issue of funding for them and other ships to support.

I also doubt UK will cut itself off from Scottish ship building. The whole UK navy is based around ships built in UK including Scotland and it's not easy thing to replace quickly or cheaply,u might find that over the next 2-3 decades that England would maybe shift to USA made ships but that's decades away.

When Scotland breaks away in the run up things will be made to look like a messy divorce, and this will continue through the settlement, but once everything is ironed out u will most likely see that it will end up friendly, both countries need each others business on varying levels, and having a hostile neighbor and border serves no purpose. Of course fear mongering will happen in the run up but in the end things will be good for both countries although Scotland stands to have the biggest gains.

@garryb, Scotland pretty much runs its own affairs already, just a percentage that they don't like defence, foreign policy, immigration etc, have already stated a defence force is all they want and this would include their share of assets. Foreign policy would probably be pretty neutral and therefore reducing threat level that UK currently has. And certain other areas that they need to sort can only be done when settlements are made between the two. So having devolved powers and own parliament has actually helped on the road to independence, so this won't be a hard or steep learning curve and Scotland being plunged into the deep end. It will survive with initial teething problems as is expected but it will survive it will float just fine
But let's get back on Ukraine topic

JohninMK wrote:

Godric wrote:fun in games will start in 18 months time when Scotland votes to leave the UK, rUK will lose £120 billion over 30 years on defence spending and if expected Wales and N Ireland follows suit that figure becomes around £250 billion over 30 years £45 billion more than the lifetime cost of Trident 2 meaning England will not be able to afford to have Nukes and afford to run 2 super carriers and to top it off NATZO will lose control over the southern half of the Atlantic Gap as it falls into Scottish maritime waters and London will lose it's seat on the UN permanent security council without Scotland's support without either Scotland or England there is no UK

even if it's just Scotland that leaves the UK London will have a £120 billion defence blackhole over 30 years, no seat in the UN security council and NATZO and London loses control over half of the Atlantic gap as Scotland will not be a NATZO member

and we will be the Ire of America

Have you read Craig Murray on that subject? Much as I am in favour the odds are that it ain't gonna happen.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/12/nicola-sturgeons-motivation/

Craig Murray is upset his pal Alex Salmond didn't get a seat in Holyrood and have been spouting this nonsense for a year the simple fact is Covid 19 upset the SNP timetable the referendum was originally penned down for spring 2021 andd Nicola made it here goal tackling Covid came first, SNP intends to issue a referendum whether with or without London's support  and it will be up to London/Tories/Boris Johnson to block it in the courts and that will open another can of worms it will give ScotGov/SNP the opportunity to challenge the validity of the ACT of Union whether at any point London has broken the act of Union and if it has been there will be no vote needed

@d_taddei2
I'm basing this on London/Tory Gov's handling of Brexit , i personally believe they will try to be as every bit as hostile towards us as they were with the EU, possibly even more awkward/nasty towards during negotiations out of spite, i would rather be good neighbours but even Labour were talking about building a robust border wall, as for Trident ... 3 years was always the plan but with Scotland's exit and the cost of removing Trident could end up being to much for the rUK, thus rUK no longer having Nukes would anger both the rUK and America.

@ Ukraine the Yanks are claiming that Russia is going to stage a false flag even with Russian forces dressed as Ukrainian soldiers attack Russian positions ... those are the tactics of the Nazis and when it comes to clandestine OPs the Americans learned from there nazi heroes

Might I add, a treaty or the act of the Union 1707 can be cancelled by either side, it doesn't have to be agreed upon by both parties.

d_taddei2 wrote:Might I add, a treaty or the act of the Union 1707 can be cancelled by either side, it doesn't have to be agreed upon by both parties.

exactly it has two signatories and not 1 like Spain ... N Ireland having preferential treatment with EU breaks the act of Union .. anyhoo this is my last post about Scot Indy on this thread

Russia should just be flooding Luhansk and Donetsk with modern weaponry just to give NATZO and Ukrops a real shock

Quite agree, if it's going to kick off Donbass separatists will do the groundwork, while Russian Aircraft, AD systems, artillery, int, and special forces do the support work.

Why aircraft will be needed? I am reminding , 3 major battles occured at the airport, debaltseve, and ilovaisk without 1 single aircraft in the sky, and without 1 long range missile fired in anger.

They were working with Buk and Smaller AD, and had shut down the airspace.

DPR and LPR already have everything they need to destroy UAF.

That is why it is nonsense to speak of a large russian invasion of ukraine.

Russian army is for US army and PLA scale of opposition.

Maybe peacekeeping forces can go there once it is settled, but invading Ukraine is not even a consideration, UNLESS serious NATO equipment is detected there, and there is urgency to reach it before deployment.

At most russian mlrs should get Ukrops to back off the contact line to 75km in line with Minsk 2 and let DPR LPR work with own specops and infantry as well as mechanized to get Slavyansk and expand DPR and LPR to include Mariupol and along the azov sea.

If NATO moves weapons hit them with VKS iskander and kalibr.

Their article V can be used for toilet paper in Ukraine

Trump bombed Syria while meeting with Xi Jinping. A false flag during the Olympics to kick it all off is highly probable.

In other news... didn't a Gazprom exec said he expected the Germans to buckle in January... maybe I forgot the source of the commentary...

Anyway...

https://www.rt.com/russia/546059-lavrov-germany-lost-economic-freedom/

Earlier this week, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland admitted that Washington was doing its best to halt certification of the project.

“What we are doing now is working with the Germans, working with the EU to slow their consideration of the implementation of the pipeline,” she said. “This German government has taken significant steps to do that, and they’ve also reconfirmed the agreement we had with the previous government with regard to what happens to Nord Stream 2 – namely, it’s suspended if Russia aggresses against Ukraine.”

As for the title, and Lavrov's comments....

The Germans are doing this consciously - there is always a choice. Germans made theirs. It's as simple as that.

Godric wrote:
Russia should just be flooding Luhansk and Donetsk with modern weaponry just to give NATZO and Ukrops a real shock

We don't actually know exactly what the Donbas militias have, apart from a few T-72 etc in PR releases. Their OPSEC is very good with social media posts a fraction of the 2015/16 period.

I have little doubt that, both sides of the demarcation line, there are advisors doing the similar things, bringing their protegees up to the current standards. Given the vulnerability, due to lack of strategic depth and Ukie SF and spies/5th column, it is likely that any 'special gear' is parked across the border out of the way of any initial strike. After which the East Wind would no doubt howl.

ATLASCUB wrote:Trump bombed Syria while meeting with Xi Jinping. A false flag during the Olympics to kick it all off is highly probable.

In other news... didn't a Gazprom exec said he expected the Germans to buckle in January... maybe I forgot the source of the commentary...

Anyway...

https://www.rt.com/russia/546059-lavrov-germany-lost-economic-freedom/

Earlier this week, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland admitted that Washington was doing its best to halt certification of the project.

“What we are doing now is working with the Germans, working with the EU to slow their consideration of the implementation of the pipeline,” she said. “This German government has taken significant steps to do that, and they’ve also reconfirmed the agreement we had with the previous government with regard to what happens to Nord Stream 2 – namely, it’s suspended if Russia aggresses against Ukraine.”

As for the title, what a horrible take. The Germans are doing this consciously - there is always a choice. Germans made theirs.

This is regrettable but acceptable, Power of Siberia 2 will be signed that week, replacing Nord Stream 2, and Germans can buy LNG or re enact for us what it was like in Dresden 1945.

As for false flags , if they gas some ukrops it is what it is. 

DPR and LPR is the only entity there willing to fight for their sovereignty and they have support. 

Besides this , RF should blast any infrastructure that looks like mk 41. 

The mosquito wharf being built in Odessa can be left in peace. Only missile sites.

It's not acceptable after so much money, political capital and opportunity costs went down the drain on this project.

Russians could have, for example, cut off Ukraine a long time ago. We will never know what the Kremlin calculus would have been if the Germans didn't say Yes to NS2 at the very beginning. Maybe the Kremlin wouldn't have been as tolerant to shenanigans in Ukraine, from the U.S or Poland. Decisions made geopolitically could have been totally different. Power of Siberia 2 could have been greenlighted sooner etc...

It was a massive waste of time, and time is MONEY, POWER etc...

It won't break Russia sure.... but it sure is a big **** off.

Russians got fucked over if it really dies for good (and it's on pace to die). The Americans understand this extremely well and are playing this extremely well. That the Germans get hurt too should be of no consequence for a Russian analyst. Russian interest are what should matter, not Germany's "predicament".

Ukraine is sinking in hunger...

Arkanghelsk wrote:DPR and LPR already have everything they need to destroy UAF.

That is why it is nonsense to speak of a large russian invasion of ukraine.

It's difficult to imagine that these local Russian irregulars (whatever they are) can ever take and hold Mariupol on their own, with no air cover from Russia. Same goes for the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Pokrovsk axis. They will need meaningful help from above +air defense.. otherwise Ukrainian Hinds, Frogfoots and Bayraktars will toast them and their supply.