The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

The RAGE X @theragex

Yesterday tankers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted exercises in Donbass with UPA flags. According to the legend of the exercises, the tankers were ordered to march to the waiting area on alarm, followed by going to the firing lines.



twitter.com/theragex/status/1482304075236614148

Ukraine is really hitting rock bottom with fckery like that..

AZ-5 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:DPR and LPR already have everything they need to destroy UAF.

That is why it is nonsense to speak of a large russian invasion of ukraine.

It's difficult to imagine that these local Russian irregulars (whatever they are) can ever take and hold Mariupol on their own, with no air cover from Russia. Same goes for the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Pokrovsk axis. They will need meaningful help from above +air defense.. otherwise Ukrainian Hinds, Frogfoots and Bayraktars will toast them and their supply.

I don't know where you were when the coup kicked off in 2014 but a few of us here watched the horror unfold and will never forget some of it.

Take it from me, these are not just simple 'irregulars'. They are trench warfare hardened regular soldiers all of whom are professionally trained, with many older ones seeing service in the Red Army who have had lots of training that they pass down.

But above all these are not conscripts, these are patriots fighting to defend their land, houses and families. As one of us here knows only too well many have been there for years. They also know what the Ukies got up to in 2014/16 and that will be served cold, their conscripts will live but anyone over the age of say 25 will have some answering to do if captured. Azov operatives had better be able to run fast.

You also do not have a clue what equipment they are trained to operate. No-one does as OPSEC is good. We know roughly the stuff they drive around in but have no clue what is in their barracks, storage sheds or just over the border. We got hints in 2015 with, from memory, ghost like glimpses of Buks in the snow hiding between houses.

Besides which they don't need much really heavy stuff only short range as big brother is a very short distance away stocked to the roof with ground based surface to surface munitions (that only need spotters/drones) as well as aircraft that don't need to cross the border to provide top cover. Not forgetting the Black Sea Fleet.

Specifically answering your point, if any UaAF aircraft get off the ground the chances of them returning home are slight and the chances of that home being a smoking ruin are high. I would think that the possibility of them taking off, flying straight to the middle of the Black Sea and negotiating landing rights at a Russian base would be high.

miketheterrible wrote:I don't think most of them are fly worthy you know.

As well, those bases would get iskandered and that's it for those jets. NATO AD has proven to be very inadequate

Some of them definitely can. They have been taking them to airshows all over Europe to show them off.

AZ-5 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:DPR and LPR already have everything they need to destroy UAF.

That is why it is nonsense to speak of a large russian invasion of ukraine.

It's difficult to imagine that these local Russian irregulars (whatever they are) can ever take and hold Mariupol on their own, with no air cover from Russia. Same goes for the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Pokrovsk axis. They will need meaningful help from above +air defense.. otherwise Ukrainian Hinds, Frogfoots and Bayraktars will toast them and their supply.

Really? Proof by assertion. The only reason that Mariupol was not captured by the Donbass forces was because of the ceasefire
agreement which transitioned into the Minsk Accords. The only reason Poroshenko signed on was because the Kiev regime paramilitary
forces (you should know this rather substantial detail before dismissing the capabilities of the DNR and LNR forces) were having their
assess handed to them on a platter.

There has been lots of BSing about how Slavyansk was surrendered. It would have been a waste of resources to hold it. Unfortunately,
the same thing cannot be said for Mariupol, which should have been seized before any "peace" deal with the Khuyiv regime.

You are also calling them Russian irregulars which makes you a propagandist liar. These are locals and claiming that any Russian volunteers
were pivotal is the same BS as claiming that Lend-Lease won the war on the eastern front. You also implicitly assert that since 2014 nothing
has been done in terms of training, recruitment and equipping of the DNR and LNR forces.

A Russian invasion of Banderite Ukria is the wet dream of NATzO propagandists. It gives them free hate propaganda points and provides
their stooges in Khuyiv with ass covering excuses as to why they ran their precious nazionalist utopia into the ground.

medo wrote:a8hm7DAhABw

Ukraine is sinking in hunger...

I am sure they will create the Holodomor hoax part deux. It will be evil Roshians trying to genocide poor little Ukrs because
Roshians are natural born Ukr genociders. As with the original Holodomor hoax, the responsibility Ukrs for their own starvation
will be systematically ignored.

We have to remember that most Donbass troops were civilians, and yes over the years have gain training and some small equipment. But they are up against a national army which has been digging in for years, and has had time to prepare. This isn't 2014 when Donbass separatists had element of surprise. There was very little resistance and if you don't believe me fine but I was there in Donetsk when It was unfolding, pictures and videos to show it, very little resistance and police buckled quickly.

The donbass troops don't have the expertise or have access to sophisticated equipment such as S-300, iskander, aircraft etc, and if it did kick off and land was to be taken they would need full support this isn't protecting a frontline but actually advancing and taking ground, and this won't be a shock for Ukrainian troops. And for Russia for this to be a success it needs to rapid and hard hitting, and destroying Ukrainian capabilities will also be key. You also have to remember that taking land needs troops and your talking of large amount of land and taking key areas such as ports and cities this uses up manpower. And donbass troops can't afford to be bogged down. And desperate Ukraine will fly and fire whatever it can.

Although Russia will want to avoid this option at all costs, even a small number of special forces or advisor's can still take casualties it doesn't want to send home dead troops, nor have vast amount of dead in donbass troops ranks. I would imagine a cyberware, and intelligence network would be utilised initially, followed by airstrikes on decapitating Ukrainian key assets, followed by missile artillery iskander, tornado etc to target large concentration of troops and this would along with a naval attack on Odessa would hopefully be enough for Ukraine to surrender areas of land and back off to protect the capital etc. If they don't then donbass troops would push through using armour and ATGWs, with support from shell artillery. Meanwhile any aircraft still left flying around after the initial strikes from Russia would be targeted by AD or a additional attacks by aircraft. And this would hopefully be enough. But like I said I doubt it will come to that Ukraine knows it can't win and USA and NATO won't get involved directly. They will just try to make things as difficult for Russia as possible on the ground and indirectly through sanctions..

JohninMK wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:I don't think most of them are fly worthy you know.

As well, those bases would get iskandered and that's it for those jets. NATO AD has proven to be very inadequate

Some of them definitely can. They have been taking them to airshows all over Europe to show them off.

But how many can sustain taking into the air 5-10 times per day ?

Most likely none.

It's quite easy to make an aircraft ready for an airshow when you prepare it 2 days prior the show. When you have 1 hour to get it ready to intercept or patrol against a potent adversary it's another story.

They will be as shitty as serbian mig back in 99.

ATLASCUB wrote:It's not acceptable after so much money, political capital and opportunity costs went down the drain on this project.

Russians could have, for example, cut off Ukraine a long time ago. We will never know what the Kremlin calculus would have been if the Germans didn't say Yes to NS2 at the very beginning. Maybe the Kremlin wouldn't have been as tolerant to shenanigans in Ukraine, from the U.S or Poland. Decisions made geopolitically could have been totally different. Power of Siberia 2 could have been greenlighted sooner etc...

It was a massive waste of time, and time is MONEY, POWER etc...

It won't break Russia sure.... but it sure is a big **** off.

Russians got fucked over if it really dies for good (and it's on pace to die). The Americans understand this extremely well and are playing this extremely well. That the Germans get hurt too should be of no consequence for a Russian analyst. Russian interest are what should matter, not Germany's "predicament".

Lets get a few things straight:

- the Russians could not have cut the pipeline through Ukraine as they had contracts that needed it and Russians don't break contracts

- this was a German not Russian project

- German and other European businesses, not Governments, put up 49% of the money

- the economic (no political) justification was much lower transit fees plus the right to onsell the gas (act as a distributor) for profit

- there were serious differences between the PoS2 that probably couldn't have been sorted until now, with the NS2 issues giving it a final push over the line

- NS2 will not die, the need for its capacity is growing all the time

- Russia is unlikely to renew the existing Ukraine transit contract at anywhere near the current levels at 31st December 2024. They have effectively already announced it as being due to 'environmental safety' due to the state of the pipeline and its potential inability to take the pressure.

- the US is playing it badly, their real window of pressure opportunity was last summer, not now at the time of peak need for it

- the US has shown how its LNG goes to the highest bidder with no loyalty to the EU

- the US has demonstrated just how little gas 10-20 or so tankers actually carry compared to a pipeline

- any good supplier who wants a successful long term relationship cares about his customer, a contract has to be good for both sides. This is clearly want Russia wants.

The US often takes a different view which is what you may be basing your comments on.

kvs wrote:You are also calling them Russian irregulars which makes you a propagandist liar

I'm asserting that the locals are Russians, no need to misunderstand me here. Only reason I mentioned ''irregulars'' is because their formations are not part of a UN recognized country. Thus not an organized military per se. No hard air cover is a risk that could compromise these locals (Russians) in controlling the entire Donbas.

AZ-5 wrote:

kvs wrote:You are also calling them Russian irregulars which makes you a propagandist liar

I'm asserting that the locals are Russians, no need to misunderstand me here.
Only reason I mentioned ''irregulars'' is because their military is not part of a UN recognized country. Thus not an organized military per se.

Stop digging.

The locals are NOT Russians, they are Russian speaking Ukrainians. Before 2014, the Russians who wanted to go to Ukraine virtually always went to Crimea.

Also that kind of military assembly is called a militia, as it is in the US.

JohninMK wrote:Stop digging.

The locals are NOT Russians, they are Russian speaking Ukrainians. Before 2014, the Russians who wanted to go to Ukraine virtually always went to Crimea.

Also that kind of military assembly is called a militia, as it is in the US.

So the Russians of the Ukraine, are not Russians. OK cool  Not the one doing any digging here. No hard air cover = no more cities in Donbas. Ergo the Russians there (the locals -call them Martians for all I care) won't extend past their current control. And in the broader context they are irregulars, militia, volunteers. There's no need to be triggered by words. They are certainly not an Army because they do not have a country and related organization that comes with it.

d_taddei2 wrote:We have to remember that most Donbass troops were civilians, and yes over the years have gain training and some small equipment. But they are up against a national army which has been digging in for years, and has had time to prepare.

Precisely my point too , and we agree on everything.

AZ-5 wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Stop digging.

The locals are NOT Russians, they are Russian speaking Ukrainians. Before 2014, the Russians who wanted to go to Ukraine virtually always went to Crimea.

Also that kind of military assembly is called a militia, as it is in the US.

So the Russians of Ukraine, are not Russians. OK cool  Not the one doing any digging here. No hard air cover = no more cities in Donbas. Ergo the Russians there (the locals -call them Martians for all I care) won't extend past their current control. And in the broader context they are irregulars, militia, volunteers. There's no need to be triggered by words. They are certainly not an Army because they do not have a country.

Perhaps English isn't your first language. The way you are putting it is that the Ukrainians who were born in and live in the Donbas but who speak Russian are Russians???

Also re your last point, so how come, as just one example, the Confederate States Army in the US Civil War is an Army when it has no country?

Hole wrote:

I see the gent on the left is demonstrating a new use for one of Antonov's latest products. A month ago it was part of a scrap panel from an An-124 they found out back.

JohninMK wrote:Perhaps English isn't your first language. The way you are putting it is that the Ukrainians who were born in and live in the Donbas but who speak Russian are Russians???

Also re your last point, so how come, as just one example, the Confederate States Army in the US Civil War is an Army when it has no country?

I'm Greek. Russians in Crimea, Donbas, Odessa, Vilnius and Kalingrad. Yup They do exist. I don't buy the ''speakers'' angle, sorry. On the Army issue, I called them irregulars because most of them kinda were-are. Not the end of the world, if you prefer militia so be it. My main point was something else tho. This ''Army'' can't get the Donbas region back on its own.

my opinion

AZ-5 wrote: This ''Army'' can't get the Donbas region back on its own.

my opinion

Total agreement.

JohninMK wrote:

Hole wrote:

I see the gent on the left is demonstrating a new use for one of Antonov's latest products. A month ago it was part of a scrap panel from an An-124 they found out back.

The ''hire-me-a-crowd'' is strong with this one

Meanwhile in US politics, things are not so one-sided.
A big part of the US right is not buying the pro-Ukraine push.



And France24 looks more hawkish than ever.. they posted this today:

JohninMK wrote:

AZ-5 wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Stop digging.

The locals are NOT Russians, they are Russian speaking Ukrainians. Before 2014, the Russians who wanted to go to Ukraine virtually always went to Crimea.

Also that kind of military assembly is called a militia, as it is in the US.

So the Russians of Ukraine, are not Russians. OK cool  Not the one doing any digging here. No hard air cover = no more cities in Donbas. Ergo the Russians there (the locals -call them Martians for all I care) won't extend past their current control. And in the broader context they are irregulars, militia, volunteers. There's no need to be triggered by words. They are certainly not an Army because they do not have a country.

Perhaps English isn't your first language. The way you are putting it is that the Ukrainians who were born in and live in the Donbas but who speak Russian are Russians???

Also re your last point, so how come, as just one example, the Confederate States Army in the US Civil War is an Army when it has no country?

Actually in the last Ukrainian census, 16% or 1 in 6 of the population identified themselves as ethnic Russians, mostly in Crimea and the Donbas.

EDIT: And 3 out of 8 or 37.5% identified as Russian speaking.

AZ-5 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:DPR and LPR already have everything they need to destroy UAF.

That is why it is nonsense to speak of a large russian invasion of ukraine.

It's difficult to imagine that these local Russian irregulars (whatever they are) can ever take and hold Mariupol on their own, with no air cover from Russia. Same goes for the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Pokrovsk axis. They will need meaningful help from above +air defense.. otherwise Ukrainian Hinds, Frogfoots and Bayraktars will toast them and their supply.

In 2014/2015 they were irregulars, but now they are full state army of DNR and LNR. They are now far more real regular army, than Ukrainian army. Exelently trained with their own commanding structure and with their own military academy to school new officers... When they break through ukrainian positions, there will be no one to stop them.

Frogfoots and hind stop flying there since July 2014 after heavy losses and they were mostly shot down by MANPADs Igla. After Illovaysk and Debalcevo LDNR army captured a lot of air defense stuff like Strela-10 and Osa-AKM. DNR also now produce effective ECM equipment to block Ukrainian drones, got some radars and most probably they have air situation picture from Russia. LDNR defeated Ukrainian army in 2015, total colapse was prevented by Minsk 2 agreement. LDNR army didn't stand still all those years, but developed their army in the way of units and command structure as well as with equipment. We know they captured a lot of Ukrainian armament and ammunition, that they repair damaged equipment and made modernizations. Osa-AKM systems were all modernized to increase their capabilities, to what level it is opsec.

LDNR have no problems with ammunition as they have factories to produce them, they have no problems with fuel, gas, coal, electricity, they have no problem with food supplies, economy is stronger than in Ukraine. In long term Ukrainian army is in worse position that LDNR army.

JohninMK wrote:
- the Russians could not have cut the pipeline through Ukraine as they had contracts that needed it and Russians don't break contracts

- this was a German not Russian project

- German and other European businesses, not Governments, put up 49% of the money


The US often takes a different view which is what you may be basing your comments on.

The Russians can do whatever the **** they want with their gas, including breaking contracts if they so please due to whatever pretext, including the coup et tat in Ukraine and the bloody war in the Donbas. Plenty of pretexts to use. If the Russian government had deemed it so you would be defending that option citing those events as the excuse. Point being, none of you have a single bone of independent thought in your body. If the narrative from the top to fend off criticism is that: "Russia doesn't break contracts" - that's the narrative you will stick by. If tomorrow Putin farts in front of Xi, you'll spin a reason as to why, most likely aligned to the official line that Russian thought leaders disseminate. In other words, a lot of folk here are drones.

Moreover you contradicted yourself back to back trying to set things straight. Maybe you should stop using propaganda points and set things straight within your own narrative.

"This was a German project" (another propaganda talking point).

No. it's a joint German/Russian project.

Who put the other 51% of the money? Who supplies the gas?

But but... it was a German project.

How do you all type this crap and click the send button.

ATLASCUB wrote:

"This was a German project" (another propaganda talking point).

No. it's a joint German/Russian project.

Who put the other 51% of the money? Who supplies the gas?

But but... it was a German project.

How do you all type this crap and click the send button.

OK perhaps I could have phrased it better.

I do wonder why, as you have such a contrarian view on subjects to many of us here, you stick around. Can't do your stress levels any good.

medo wrote:

AZ-5 wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:DPR and LPR already have everything they need to destroy UAF.

That is why it is nonsense to speak of a large russian invasion of ukraine.

It's difficult to imagine that these local Russian irregulars (whatever they are) can ever take and hold Mariupol on their own, with no air cover from Russia. Same goes for the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Pokrovsk axis. They will need meaningful help from above +air defense.. otherwise Ukrainian Hinds, Frogfoots and Bayraktars will toast them and their supply.

In 2014/2015 they were irregulars, but now they are full state army of DNR and LNR. They are now far more real regular army, than Ukrainian army. Exelently trained with their own commanding structure and with their own military academy to school new officers... When they break through ukrainian positions, there will be no one to stop them.

Frogfoots and hind stop flying there since July 2014 after heavy losses and they were mostly shot down by MANPADs Igla. After Illovaysk and Debalcevo LDNR army captured a lot of air defense stuff like Strela-10 and Osa-AKM. DNR also now produce effective ECM equipment to block Ukrainian drones, got some radars and most probably they have air situation picture from Russia. LDNR defeated Ukrainian army in 2015, total colapse was prevented by Minsk 2 agreement. LDNR army didn't stand still all those years, but developed their army in the way of units and command structure as well as with equipment. We know they captured a lot of Ukrainian armament and ammunition, that they repair damaged equipment and made modernizations. Osa-AKM systems were all modernized to increase their capabilities, to what level it is opsec.

LDNR have no problems with ammunition as they have factories to produce them, they have no problems with fuel, gas, coal, electricity, they have no problem with food supplies, economy is stronger than in Ukraine. In long term Ukrainian army is in worse position that LDNR army.

Also the LDNR military is entirely voluntary. Ukraine's military is mostly conscripts from many waves of conscription. Volunteers are always better motivated.

JohninMK wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:

"This was a German project" (another propaganda talking point).

No. it's a joint German/Russian project.

Who put the other 51% of the money? Who supplies the gas?

But but... it was a German project.

How do you all type this crap and click the send button.

OK perhaps I could have phrased it better.

I do wonder why, as you have such a contrarian view on subjects to many of us here, you stick around. Can't do your stress levels any good.

Why should I hang around a hive mind that has verbatim similar opinions to my own? The other side is afflicted just as bad from the same plague. Odd man out these days.

Btw I merely pointed out simple contradictions that you should have caught the second you typed them but I've seen that talking point repeated here by others, and it's propaganda, dissimilated by clowns whose job is to disseminate that crap. The fact that others (target audience) repeat it means those clowns did their job - unfortunately. Which means those targets didn't learn jack shit at all, except make believe realities.

It's not personal, trust. Just don't try to "set me straight" with that sort of crap. I can be wrong.... plenty. Just not to cheap propaganda talking points like that, for sure. Easy to break them apart.

The discussion about "Russian irregulars" is something else in terms of BS.   These "irregulars" fought as a professional army.
Unlike the Ukr paramilitaries who were busy killing villagers, raping and pillaging, the Donbass army defended its
homeland.   Khuyiv calling its Banderatard thugs an army does not make it one.  

The propaganda spreader is simply ignoring that the vestige of the Ukrianian army collapsed in 2014.   There were mass desertions
and no morale.   Khuyiv substituted the army with nazionalist paramilitaries (Azov, etc.) that were composed of cutthroat volunteers
and not professional soldiers.   These are exactly the worst sort of scum to fight wars.   They target civilians.  

The reason that the Ukrianian army evapourated was because it was killed as part of the long game for the western takeover
of the country.    The army in Russia helped to depose Yeltsin in 1999.   The Ukrainian army would have acted similarly as a
patriotic force.   So it was starved to death.   Both physically and figuratively.  This lubricated the 2014 coup.

Yes, Yeltsin was depose. He was kept in office as a puppet until he resigned.   Putin became Prime Minister as the real leader.  
There was no way in Hell that he would have been appointed by Yeltsin voluntarily.   Yeltsin was also not going to resign voluntarily.  
He would have appointed another Prime Minister instead.   NATzO snookered itself with its gang rape of Serbia in March of 1999.  
The brazen attack by Wahabbi warlords operating out of Chechnya on Dagestan in the spring of 1999 was another strong signal to
start house cleaning.   The silovki were not just ex-KGB.   They were every serious professional who was not ready to sell his
people down the river.   NATzO never saw this coming since it assumed that not paying Russians would make them stop being
patriots.   Unpaid Russians were developing new missile technology during the 1990s.   They kept the technological infrastructure
alive.   Yeltsin's regime was trying to pull the same thing as the clowns in Kiev and starve Russia's military and industry into the
stone age.   Yeltsin should have been shot.