The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

In Iraq, despite all the money spent, the USA had a hard time infiltrating the insurgent groups: mostly because of language barrier and physical appearance. They had to use Iraqi "moles" but these were generally speaking not effective.
In 404, it will be very easy for the Russians/Novorossians to infiltrate any insurgent cell, group or organization because they look the same and speak the same language.

If Russia conquers Ukraine (and that is a big "if"), the local Russian-friendly government with its military, police and security forces will have to take care of cleaning up and sanitizing the country from the remnants of the Nazi scum. Practices dating back to the Stalin-era will have to be revived.
All Russian Army units should withdraw to their barracks and only lend in remote assistance in the form of intel, aerial surveillance etc.

By the way, most Ukrainians (and one way or the other) will gladly or reluctantly accept Russian rule and peace.
Only a very small proportion of Ukrainians (the hard-core "Slava Ukrainy" nutjobs) will be willing to fight and die.

Why are we comparing the US bungled handling of Iraq when we have a far better analogy in Russia's excellent Syria campaign?

kvs wrote:
Nope.  Kiev regime Ukraine can put up a guerrilla resistance that would sap a small occupation force.
Unlike Iraq, there is ample land to hide in such a war.   Iraq is a desert where the yanquis could engage
in a turkey shoot with their Apaches.   The yanquis thought they could use them against Serbia in 1999
and stopped the operation.  

There is no 'hiding' even in the remote stretches of the Carpathians. You go Rambo in the mountains and flocks of drones and special forces would hunt you down with almost contemptuous ease. No you hide in urban areas, or better yet, in safe zones guarded by friendly forces, which could only really mean neighboring Poland. But borders are a lot easier to secure, and saboteur cells hiding within the population are targets for policing action, i.e. no knock raids in the middle of the knight with swat teams, not combined arms battalions. This problem is a whole lot more manageable.

And the divided population of Ukraine can easily supply the requisite bodies. They just need the Russians to provide force exponentiation with intelligence, training, materiel and the occasional heavy metal support to counteract the western support of their enemies.

kvs wrote:
Western Ukraine cannot be occupied by 100,000 soldiers.   Poland would be supplying them both men
and materiel.   We already had a guerrilla war in western Ukraine running from 1945 until around Stalin's
death in 1953.   The UK hosted training camps for Ukrs who were participating in this war.

This isn't the 1950s, this isn't even the 1990s. Its hell of a lot easier today for a token force to occupy much larger areas and control larger populations of people. For instance surveillance technology has come a long way, or rather, almost every human willingly carries with him a tracker and wire tap device any where he goes.

kvs wrote:
Iraq was divided between Shiites and Sunni, which the US used to overthrow Saddam.   The part of Ukraine
that does not have a hate hard on for Russia is not going to fight western Ukrainians.  

They would for a pay cheque. Or just empty Ukrainian jails and have them serve their sentences out as your muscle.

Unless what the US actually means is - back us on Russia and we'll give you Taiwan

You mean like when they asked Russia to put sanctions on Iran and China when they had Russia under enormous sanctions at the time... I doubt it.

Zelensky more than once last year wanted a meeting with Putin. Putin declined (the guys at the Duran more or less said that it's worthless to talk to the puppet and instead talk to the puppeteer). I think this is Lavrov offering an olive branch to Ukraine. There has been a rather strange events of back and forth between US and Ukraine.

Zelensky was basically trying to do what Putin did.... Suggest the Donbass region is actually controlled by Putin so there is no point talking to anyone but Putin about the Donbass. The difference of course is that he is wrong. And of course Putin refusing to speak with Zelensky is because the Minsk agreements require Zelensky to talk to the Donbass and other regions to sort this crap out.

Offering to talk to Zelensky now suggests the Russians are wanting to give Zelensky a way out.... and why not... the problem is the US and HATO and the EU, Russia has only responded to Ukrainian sanctions. The only time Putin has interfered was to ensure Gazprom kept gas flowing through the Ukraine when it was clearly more cost effective to bypass them... that is a nice thing to do for the Ukraine...

He likely wants to improve relations now but what he might offer and what he can deliver and what Zelensky can or will accept is another matter.

Western forces in Ukraine probably want a long bloody conflict to start with Russia to damage her economically and politically, but obviously that will completely destroy the Ukraine in the process... perhaps that is what the US wants... split the country up... they love to break up countries...

But ultimately it isn't Zelensky. He will be ousted and replaced by another poodle of the same.

But it is like Iraq... they can regime change all they like but when push comes to shove and they have to hold elections the population will often vote for someone they don't prefer to be in power. Obviously anyone they don't like will be removed from the ballot box one way or another, but in the case of the last election they went for Zelensky because he was not hard core anti Russian like poro... Like Biden who turned out not much different from Trump however he is what he is... Politicians... the same everywhere...

All the help which are in fact loans from the west for weapons won't help. They will pay it during the next 20 years.

The only group benefiting here is the British and US MIC because eventually the Ukraine or the UK and US governments are going to be paying for these arms... they will not be free.

The original deal that started all this was the choice between EU loans and Russian and Chinese investments and the anti Russian government of the time chose the Russian investments because they could also get Chinese investments as well... the Russian offer was not conditional on not taking the EU offer... it was the EU offer that was conditional on not taking any offer from China or Russia.

At the end Russia will have to invade them.

Not at all. Russia has all the time in the world... their economy is fine and they are stashing money away for a rainy day too.

The west talks about Russia invading every other month... the Ukrainians have moved their forces to the Donbass border and so Russia has forces on its side of the border ready to deal with any stupidity from Kiev... stupidity from Moscow is rather unlikely for the moment.

It took a lot less than 500000 troops to actually invade Iraq and topple the government.
The US had roughly the same amount of troops they claim Russia has right now in Ukraine.
And Ukraine has a way worse material disadvantage than even the Iraqi army had.

Iraq has oil and is positioned in an arc that could deliver UAE gas through Iraq and a Syria no longer controlled by Assad to Turkey as competition to Russian gas going to Europe. Ukraine is a dead end shit hole filled with people who either hate Russia or don't care that their government hates Russia.

The Ukraine is no prize no matter what the price even if it was handed over for free it would cost 500 billion just to fix it... and even then the locals would not be satisfied they did enough.

Contrary to iraq Russia actually has a big support among ukrainians.

An exaggeration... even the people in the Donbass haven't said they want to be Russian... they just want to speak Russian.

Most just wanted better economic conditions when they went on maidan protest and voted for EU pact. Those have no plan to fight russians for US interests.

They are idiots that thought accepting the EUs deal, which was pathetic, would lead them to joining the EU and getting massive subsidies like Poland gets so they can live the good life without having to work too hard.... you know... the American dream.

What they ignored was the EU deal was crap... mostly loans and promises, and the demands to get that was to cut themselves off from their primary customer and trading partner... Russia.

Even now when their economy has turned to shit they blame Russia or now the US... anyone but themselves.

By the way, most Ukrainians (and one way or the other) will gladly or reluctantly accept Russian rule and peace.
Only a very small proportion of Ukrainians (the hard-core "Slava Ukrainy" nutjobs) will be willing to fight and die.

Nice to hear that said, but Russia cannot commit to regime change and occupation of a 30 million plus country based on that premise... the Ukrainians need to help themselves... how about they do what central and south american countries seem to be doing and getting rid of their US puppets themselves.

What kind of economic misery? Sanctions would hit western europe too! So it's fair

The cost of fixing Ukraine would be worse than the cost for West Germany regarding East Germany and East Germany is still not right... a different culture.

Let the US pay that bill... they won fair and square.

And I bet my ass...all the surveys (support for NATO, will of resitsnace, hate against Russia etc.) in Ukraine are more or less rigged!

Russia hasn't got the cash to buy these idiots, let alone fix up the trailer park when they are done... occupying the Ukraine does not benefit Russia in any way or form.

Russia is not the worlds police and is not required to save countries from the west.

So if Russia is provocated they will hit...very very hard! Ukraine as we know it will be history and more or less absorbed. That's why they mass troops.

They have massed their troops quite some distance from the border with Ukraine... they are certainly not massed right on the border... because Ukraine has its forces massed on the border with the Donbass in direct violation of the Minsk agreement... but western media ignore that little fact.

Zelenky and the oligarchs behind him have a small window of opportunity chance to do the right thing and flip back to Russia's camp, upsetting the whole chessboard.

Even if they did the word from Washington would be Coup number two...

He would have to talk to the Donbass and other regions and likely accept their autonomy... which would allow him to stand down most of his army which should save quite a bit of money and resources... and together with the money they get for those anti tank missiles from the US and UK they might even come out in profit.

I can see him releasing his grip on these regions but getting better relations with Russia would destroy support from the west and that is the light at the end of the tunnel for the Ukraine idiots.

B found out Z can't pay back loans.

Z found out B won't move any of its fingers to actually help him against Russia.

Z also probably has so much dirt on B that he thinks he has more power than he actually does... those Georgian snipers from Maiden who killed people on both sides to stir shit up are probably still on retainer if needed... frame Putin of course.

Get a civil war within Ukraine and Russia and the Donbass can watch on from the sidelines...

https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-says-ukraine-russia-crisis-is-a-european-problem-2022-1?amp

Trump says Ukraine-Russia crisis is a 'European problem' and Russia 'owns Germany' because of Nord Stream 2 pipeline

Biden is crashing and burning, Trump surging in polls, The Ukrainian gambit failed , once Trump gets in

That's it for NATO, Ukraine, and EU, Putin will have all demands met, it's just time