The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

flamming_python wrote:I have a feeling that it's time for a Russian-Iranian-Houthi joint invasion of Saudi Arabia

Houthis carried out a drone strike in UAE earlier this week. Injured several and so far 3 people are reported dead. However, the injured and the deceased are all Indians and Pakistanis.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/17/middleeast/uae-abu-dhabi-explosion-drone-houthi-intl/index.html

The Daily Mail yesterday on Ukraine and the landing craft.

Worth a read but be prepared

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10417951/Six-Russian-landing-ships-sail-past-Britain-sparking-speculation-bound-Ukraine.html

Then, after calming down with a cup of coffee, read this from today, after Biden yesterday

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10421821/New-evidence-military-build-striking-distance-Ukraine-nine-month-war-emerges.html

Now you will need a somewhat stronger drink

Lmao...

Territory and people that were part of the Russian empire and ipso facto Russia(ians) is no longer needed cause "deadweight"..... propaganda is a helluva drug.

More like the Soviet collapse and border revisions were terrible after disintegration which has allowed the Americans to go in and bitchslap Russia on its own historical territories for influence. In the case of "Ukraine", barring a full scale invasion Russia has no feasible way of flipping the state back to its fold. Russia simply can't out bribe nor outmaneuver through soft power the empire and its lackies. Not even on its own historical territories. Precursor for what will happen once they get to "Russia" proper (whatever that means).... Of course if we were talking pre-1917 the empire would already be considered to be deep in Russian territory, fucking over Russian citizens and Putin hanged for being a fool, twice.

The massive economic costs the West threatens to impose sends chills down the spine of every Russian chickenhawk and oligarch there is. That's why there is talk of so much "wise" restraint. Give me a fucking break. It's plain fear of the consequences, nothing more, nothing less. No amount of third rate spin is gonna change that.

Zelensky made an address to the Ukrainian people today, talking about how speculation of an invasion by Russia is nonsense and deliberate sabotage against the nation

Well he made the statement not long after meeting Blinken, but his line sharply contrasts with the one of his American sponsors

Maybe he's just worried about investors pulling out. Or maybe it's something more, and Zelensky is not happy with the role of sacrificial lamb that the Ukraine has been assigned to

ATLASCUB wrote:Lmao...

Territory and people that were part of the Russian empire and ipso facto Russia(ians) is no longer needed cause "deadweight"..... propaganda is a helluva drug.

More like the Soviet collapse and border revisions were terrible after disintegration which has allowed the Americans to go in and bitchslap Russia on its own historical territories for influence. In the case of "Ukraine", barring a full scale invasion Russia has no feasible way of flipping the state back to its fold. Russia simply can't out bribe nor outmaneuver through soft power the empire and its lackies. Not even on its own historical territories. Precursor for what will happen once they get to "Russia" proper (whatever that means).... Of course if we were talking pre-1917 the empire would already be considered to be deep in Russian territory, fucking over Russian citizens and Putin hanged for being a fool, twice.

The massive economic costs the West threatens to impose sends chills down the spine of every Russian chickenhawk and oligarch there is. That's why there is talk of so much "wise" restraint. Give me a fucking break. It's plain fear of the consequences, nothing more, nothing less. No amount of third rate spin is gonna change that.

Oh give it a break sunshine

If Russia wasn't prepared for the fallout and its strategists hadn't already calculated everyone's moves a few steps in advance, they would have never issued the ultimatum to NATO. They made the demands because they were ready to do so.

Whatever the situation is, it has already been anticipated by Russia, it's still early in the moves and countermoves. So we'll just have to sit back and see what's in store for everyone next.

As for the landing ships on the way - now would be a good time to take those troops and load them bound for Syria instead

Russia should stop providing gas to Ukraine. Now, not later but now. It was a big mistake to prolong the contract in 2019.

Take away Ukraine's ability to provide heat and electricity to their citizens.

This would push Ukraine into internal chaos and limit its ability to wage a war against Donbass.

To me, there's a number of issues to consider/work out:-

1)Why is Russia doing/considering different now?
I reckon Russia has decided the Ukraine is so controlled by American oppression, there is no democracy.
Russia can also do more vs the US and the punta junta because it is economically realigned eastward. PLus it is militarily stronger now.
Also, evidently America and its puppets just want to be as awkward as possible.

But I wonder, has the situation changed in other ways for Russia?
Is it that America is planning to station weapons in the Ukraine? FOrce its junta into NATO?
Anything else?

2)What is America's plan?
NATO and American bases in the Pukraine?
Poison relations between Europe and Russia totally?
Or is it testing Russia out? Trying to hustle and sense weakeness?
Does it honestly think a Russian liberation of the Ukraine will be a "quagmire"?
Anything else?



3)What does Russia want?
A neutral Ukraine?
A federal Ukraine, with parts EU focussed (Galicia) and the rest pro Russian?
All of the Ukraine allied to Russia?
For Europe's main powers to tire of America's shitstirring and allow a gentle absorbing of most of the Ukraine into Russia's orbit again?

4)How will it end/develop?
It seems to be the Western media bleating on about Russian "invasion".
But Russia has done v little threatening indeed.
Is it all for America to bloat NATO spending further?

Will there be a pro Russian revolution in part or the majority of the Ukraine?
Medvedchuk is still under house arrest, I understand.
Where might Russia draw any borders in any liberation?
How might it induce the Ukraine into federalisation?

It seems Feb might be a key time for all this.
Are the Azov/Pravy vermin planning one last evil stunt before incineration?
Will Russia FINALLY take the war to America and cause America some real problems eg by arming groups in America who feel oppressed?

------------------------------

I felt a while back that Putin was giving clues.
He now felt it was pointless to try and use soft power to get Ukrainian people to vote against the comedian, Porkchops or whatever other garbage America had put in control of the junta. Russian people are obviously being purged and terrorised, or even "Russian speaking Ukrainians". Evidently the Pukraine is under an "iron fist". So I think Putin is now fed up and realises the Nazi scum and Ameri-puppets need to feel a much bigger iron fist from Moscow. And I would completely agree with VVP.

zorobabel wrote:"5th RAF C-17 headed to Ukraine. That's a maximum of 854,500 lbs possible payload."

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1483487049332461568

The UK is supplying NLAWs to Ukraine.

Most of thats probably LG bacon lettuce tomato rainbow uniforms.

Either way its a thoroughly scummy thing to do.

I think of the Ukraine as 4 or 5 separate areas.
There's the Donbass - staunchly Russian.

Then Novorossiya ie South Eastern Ukraine across to Transnistria - which is strongly pro Russia.
Included might be Kharkov etc which is not as pro Russian as the Donbass, but still Russian leaning on balance.
Novorossiya+inc Donbass probably 12m or so.

Then you have 8m or so in the West. Basically Nazi scum, beyond hope in large part. Plus some Hungarian and other minority groups in some areas that were staunchly Party of the Regions in the past.

Finally there is Kiev, surrounded by what I'd call Malorossiya. Kiev is pro Russian speaking and its business classes work with Russia, even if they like the idea of being a "big capital". Surrounding Kiev, the middle part of the Ukraine and maybe 10/12m or so, is probably the area that wavers, or could even be split down the Dnieper. Sadly much of that area believes in the AIDS that is the "Ukrainian nationhood".

I wonder how much of the Ukraine could be a true liberation, and how much would be just like an 888 Georgia operation.
Georgia isn't rabidly anti Russian now. But its not becoming best friends either.
Does Russia go for half, 2/3rds, or the whole Ukraine to liberate?

Or does it support a counter coup led by Medvedchuk?
I'd be interested to hear opinions on what Russia could target geograhically.

GarryB wrote:The Russians were selling Kornet missiles for $5K each... so I am starting to see why the UK spends more on "defence" than Russia does..

Kornet does the same job as Javelin at a fraction of the cost. Yet U.K is delivering uber expensive Javelins to Ukraine.

Even Saab AT4 single shot rocket launchers are quite potent.

Sujoy wrote:

Even Saab AT4 single shot rocket launchers are quite potent.

Is that the weapon the UK is supplying as the NLAW?

People on other forums said that USA will soon threaten Russia with sanctions if they DON'T invade already

JohninMK wrote:

Sujoy wrote:

Even Saab AT4 single shot rocket launchers are quite potent.

Is that the weapon the UK is supplying as the NLAW?

No. At-4 is a single use rpg-7 like unguided rocket.

NLAW is a guided top attack rocket.

The launchers look similar though.

They both suck also.

flamming_python wrote:

Oh give it a break sunshine

If Russia wasn't prepared for the fallout and its strategists hadn't already calculated everyone's moves a few steps in advance, they would have never issued the ultimatum to NATO. They made the demands because they were ready to do so.

Whatever the situation is, it has already been anticipated by Russia, it's still early in the moves and countermoves. So we'll just have to sit back and see what's in store for everyone next.

As for the landing ships on the way - now would be a good time to take those troops and load them bound for Syria instead

Pretty sure Russia's crystal ball has been suffering massive malfunctions since 1991 (others would say even before then - but for the sake of illustration). If Putin and cadre's crystal ball was so great you wouldn't have lost Ukraine to a soft coup and made subsequent blunder after blunder thereafter.... just like Russia wouldn't have made the mistakes that have allowed NATO expansion eastward etc...

Fact of the matter is, all of that is absolute horseshit nonsense. Just like the U.S can't predict the full extent of the fallout of a full Ukranian invasion (to retake most of Ukrainian territory) so can't Russia game the full extent of the consequences of such an act, on the economic sphere, military sphere etc.

It's easier however to predict outcomes for a smaller operation (Georgia 2.0 OP), thus why the Kremlin scribes propagandize it to the sheep and why the West will be perfectly fine with it (it ensures a status quo that benefits their chessboard move on Ukraine). The only loser will continue to be Russia cause it doesn't solve the problem - it's just kicking the can down the road.

As for the ultimatum, if you ask Putin and Russian diplomats it's anything but an ultimatum. The U.S and its lackies, in a self-serving manner obviously propagandize it as an ultimatum in order to draw opposition to it and drown any voice stupid enough to suggest that the U.S should unilaterally push back all its geopolitical gains in Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Here is what that ultimatum really is: "Russia telling the world it's tired of getting buttfucked by the Anglo-Saxons geopolitically" "We won't take it any more". And the U.S and its lackies response is: "You're gonna continue to take it, maybe not as raw as before or else". The question mark is still: "What is Russia gonna do about it after getting that response". Even more consultations on the agenda - surprise surprise. "We won't allow the U.S to drag this out...".... I'm pretty sure you will.

As for Syria, another crystal ball malfunction. An emergency intervention (that shouldn't have taken that long to materialize) resulting in a pyrrhic victory (if you can call it that), a frozen conflict with almost 2/3s of Syrian territory outside Damascus control. As much of a failure as it was a success.

The Americans may give you a break... before the next round of... well, I better keep the word to myself.

Edit Bonus:

U.S. Sanctions Officials Accused Of Preparing To Take Over Ukraine’s Government On Russia's Behalf

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43956/u-s-sanctions-officials-accused-of-preparing-to-take-over-ukraines-government-on-russias-behalf

statement issued by the Department of the Treasury today claims that Russia has used its intelligence services to recruit current and former Ukrainian government officials to “prepare to take over the government of Ukraine and to control Ukraine’s critical infrastructure with an occupying Russian force.” The Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned the four Ukrainian individuals today after calling them “pawns” of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). The unusually strong language in the department's statement highlights the exasperation of the U.S. government as diplomatic talks continue to be characterized by Russian disinformation about its activities in Ukraine.

The only positive thing here is that it may suggest Russia is finally growing balls and going for a takeover of Kiev, instead of half-measures and blunders that get nowhere. In other words, it suggest the U.S having intel on one of the possible options Putin may exercise thus as competent policy dictates (get ahead of the game). Maybe the U.S has no intel and is simply just neutralizing Russian pawns in Kiev opportunistically. Either way.

But if this is a response to intel of Russian intentions it's also very telling of the differences in approaches when Russia was presented with a similar scenario. The Americans get ahead of the game. Russians, when faced with a similar situation, before and after the soft coup tolerated the malign actors and played along.... culminating with the stupid, massive blunder of recognizing the Kiev regime and legitimizing a coup - much less punish, in any form, those responsible (except nobodies).

There is nothing wrong in admitting mistakes, massive as they are. It's the least you can do - as admitting to mistakes do not solve them. The problem obviously is that dear leader committed those mistakes, and he's untouchable - public image wise - for the fan cult. "Look how much they hate him, he's doing something right" "He eats his western counterparts for breakfast" "Best statesman of the 21st century".... when you eat that shit up hook, line and sinker it's hard to come back to reality.

^ Soft coup ? It wasn't a soft coup. But sure. It was a bad way to lose parts of Ukraine.

Russia did not "lose" Ukraine. Ukraine lost itself. I think the event was good in that it finally made Russia cut the cord with regards to using Ukraine for critical supplies for its military industrial complex. Be those marine engines, helicopter engines, trainer engines, transport aircraft, etc. Seriously. No doubt Russia had all sorts of contingency plans available given what happened in the "Orange Revolution" not that long before. I think they never quite expected the West to be so duplicitous. But the plans to counter what could happen were in place.

But I think it was a bit much to expect them to prop up the Ukrainian government. Ukraine was neither part of the Union State nor of CSTO.  Ukraine was part of GUAM even back then. GUAM is an anti-Russian construct.

Isos wrote:They both suck also.

Javelin sucks of course. Regardless of how many Javelins UK ships to Ukraine, APS on T-90 will intercept them.

But why would you suggest AT-4 and NLAW sucks as well? They are more expensive than a RPG 30/32 but specs are good.

JohninMK wrote:Is that the weapon the UK is supplying as the NLAW?

UK is shipping NLAW ATGMs and US is shipping Javelin ATGMs to Ukraine.

AT4 CS, was in deployment with the UK army as a substitute for the period in which the NLAW had yet to be deployed.

Sujoy wrote:Regardless of how many Javelins UK ships to Ukraine, APS on T-90 will intercept them.

The non-existing APS on T-90? Yup, it will work for sure!

ALAMO wrote:

Sujoy wrote:Regardless of how many Javelins UK ships to Ukraine, APS on T-90 will intercept them.

The non-existing APS on T-90? Yup, it will work for sure!

Shtora-1 was fitted on the T-90s back in 1995 itself.

Since 1992, to be precise, or 1988, if we would stick to the appearing only.
But it is not an APS but a jammer, even if active, that might be the issue. Name misuse.
And it is hard to determine if it will work against the thermal channel in a way you consider, that is as a dazzler. Yes, there are some rumors indeed, but I would not bet my life on that.

Sujoy wrote:

ALAMO wrote:

Sujoy wrote:Regardless of how many Javelins UK ships to Ukraine, APS on T-90 will intercept them.

The non-existing APS on T-90? Yup, it will work for sure!

Shtora-1 was fitted on the T-90s back in 1995 itself.

Shtora eyes thing work only against some atgm, the ones that have noze mounted guidance. Most societ made atgm that ukraine has have back facing or wire guidances.

Isos wrote:
Shtora eyes thing work only against some atgm, the ones that have noze mounted guidance. Most societ made atgm that ukraine has have back facing or wire guidances.

But you have some idea what Sztora is, and how it works? Must not be in the close details ... asking serious.

ALAMO wrote:

Isos wrote:
Shtora eyes thing work only against some atgm, the ones that have noze mounted guidance. Most societ made atgm that ukraine has have back facing or wire guidances.

But you have some idea what Sztora is, and how it works? Must not be in the close details ... asking serious.

It's quite simple.The eyes on the front of t-90 turns on and blind the guidance system of the enemy missile. Smoke grenade launchers are also connected to it.