The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

Putin throughout his 20+ years in power has always done his best to either avoid war, intimidate the other party off any adventures, or to conclude any wars that do break out in the quickest amount of time possible. He's not going to depart so radically from his preferences.

Putin is a statesman who inaugurates statues of Alexander III once every few years in Russia. The Tsar best known for anti-Semitic pogroms, Russification policies and tightening the screws on Russian society more and more in place of solving its fundamental problems and contradictions. Yet for all those things Alexander III was also known as a peaceful ruler, he didn't start one war or rise to any provocation.

Now, about what I think is going on
All the current maneuvers, including:

   the huge build-up of Russian forces on the border
   the return of Poroshenko to Kiev from Warsaw where he is busy demonstratively making an absolute mockery out of Zelensky and destroying whatever meager authority and control of the state he has left
   US officials hysteria about Russia invading imminently
   Some Ukrainian officials saying the opposite, that they see no threat of a Russian invasion at this time
   Ukrainian tankers on exercises swapping the Ukrainian flag on their vehicles for that of the flag of the UPA (WW2 era Nazi collaborator organization)

Are all to do with a Ukrainian offensive on the Donbass, which is still on the cards, which is very much neccessary for NATO membership and official forces to be stationed on its territory. The Ukraine is being whispered to in one ear 'do it!', while Russia is outright saying 'don't do it', and not only to the Ukraine. The clown president, couldn't take the heat and last week began talking about it being time to return to the peace process and de-escalate things https://crimea.ria.ru/20220111/prishlo-vremya-zelenskiy-sdelal-gromkoe-zayavlenie-po-donbassu-1121998709.html

The words are not fundamentally different to what he has said before in previous months, but the difference is that he made the statement during a meeting with French and German advisers. The French and Germans had previously restated their commitment to the Minsk Peace Process, which Zelensky had tried to reject over the past year.
Aaand. Queue Poroshenko returning to Kiev 2 days ago from Poland.

Now what happens if Porky seizes power in the Ukraine and goes ahead with an assault on the Donbass? Well I don't think Russia will invade with all that hardware, the Russian political and military leadership just like to keep their adversaries guessing. In reality they know their judo and Sun Tzu perfectly well. But anything can happen. Some sponsored rebellions, some precision strikes, whatever. Neither Zelensky nor Poroshenko have any more than single-digit support in the Ukraine at the moment, but there aren't really any alternative political forces to sponsor there for Russia in any case, so outright destabilization will probably be a bridge too far as far as any Russian objectives go.

The other explanation is that the US and Russia have already agreed on the Ukraine, and that the rest of all this stuff is just theater. In that case they will have already agreed about where the new lines of contact will be. A similar deal was worked out between Turkey, the US and Russia (representing Syria) in north-east Syria in 2019. The US military moved out, self-destructing its bases in the region in the process, and the Turkish and Syrian militaries moved in on pre-agreed lines of contact, with the Turkish advance into a big strip of territory causing about 200,000 civilians to flee and become internal refugees.

Personally I view this explanation as less likely, mainly due to the fact that the US and Europe are dividing on the Ukraine issue now quite visibly, which they probably would not do if the US had already pre-agreed with Russia as France-Germany were always more the doves on the Ukrainian issue compared to the US.

Also, Russia really has no need for the Ukraine for the medium-term and won't be able to swallow and digest it along with all of its problems. I doubt Russia would be interested in occupying some half of it - it's objective is to prevent any NATO presence there.

The wildcard here is if Zelensky manages to hold on to power and avoid any offensives, possibly with the aid of the Europeans. The Germans have already gone to Moscow for some discussions.

flamming_python wrote:Putin throughout his 20+ years in power has always done his best to either avoid war, intimidate the other party off any adventures, or to conclude any wars that do break out in the quickest amount of time possible. He's not going to depart so radically from his preferences.

Putin is a statesman who inaugurates statues of Alexander III once every few years in Russia. The Tsar best known for anti-Semitic pogroms, Russification policies and tightening the screws on Russian society more and more in place of solving its fundamental problems and contradictions. Yet for all those things Alexander III was also known as a peaceful ruler, he didn't start one war or rise to any provocation.

Now, about what I think is going on
All the current maneuvers, including:

   the huge build-up of Russian forces on the border
   the return of Poroshenko to Kiev from Warsaw where he is busy demonstratively making an absolute mockery out of Zelensky and destroying whatever meager authority and control of the state he has left
   US officials hysteria about Russia invading imminently
   Some Ukrainian officials saying the opposite, that they see no threat of a Russian invasion at this time
   Ukrainian tankers on exercises swapping the Ukrainian flag on their vehicles for that of the flag of the UPA (WW2 era Nazi collaborator organization)

Are all to do with a Ukrainian offensive on the Donbass, which is still on the cards, which is very much neccessary for NATO membership and official forces to be stationed on its territory. The Ukraine is being whispered to in one ear 'do it!', while Russia is outright saying 'don't do it', and not only to the Ukraine. The clown president, couldn't take the heat and last week began talking about it being time to return to the peace process and de-escalate things https://crimea.ria.ru/20220111/prishlo-vremya-zelenskiy-sdelal-gromkoe-zayavlenie-po-donbassu-1121998709.html

The words are not fundamentally different to what he has said before in previous months, but the difference is that he made the statement during a meeting with French and German advisers. The French and Germans had previously restated their commitment to the Minsk Peace Process, which Zelensky had tried to reject over the past year.
Aaand. Queue Poroshenko returning to Kiev 2 days ago from Poland.

Now what happens if Porky seizes power in the Ukraine and goes ahead with an assault on the Donbass? Well I don't think Russia will invade with all that hardware, the Russian political and military leadership just like to keep their adversaries guessing. In reality they know their judo and Sun Tzu perfectly well. But anything can happen. Some sponsored rebellions, some precision strikes, whatever. Neither Zelensky nor Poroshenko have any more than single-digit support in the Ukraine at the moment, but there aren't really any alternative political forces to sponsor there for Russia in any case, so outright destabilization will probably be a bridge too far as far as any Russian objectives go.

The other explanation is that the US and Russia have already agreed on the Ukraine, and that the rest of all this stuff is just theater. In that case they will have already agreed about where the new lines of contact will be. A similar deal was worked out between Turkey, the US and Russia (representing Syria) in north-east Syria in 2019. The US military moved out, self-destructing its bases in the region in the process, and the Turkish and Syrian militaries moved in on pre-agreed lines of contact, with the Turkish advance into a big strip of territory causing about 200,000 civilians to flee and become internal refugees.

Personally I view this explanation as less likely, mainly due to the fact that the US and Europe are dividing on the Ukraine issue now quite visibly, which they probably would not do if the US had already pre-agreed with Russia as France-Germany were always more the doves on the Ukrainian issue compared to the US.

Also, Russia really has no need for the Ukraine for the medium-term and won't be able to swallow and digest it along with all of its problems. I doubt Russia would be interested in occupying some half of it - it's objective is to prevent any NATO presence there.

The wildcard here is if Zelensky manages to hold on to power and avoid any offensives, possibly with the aid of the Europeans. The Germans have already gone to Moscow for some discussions.

That is actually a very likely explanation:
"The West agreed to not place any more sanctions that it really did not want to use, in return for Russia not to conduct an invasion that it never wanted to do".
Works very well for everybody...except 404 whose economy, living standards and internal political situation gets worse every day.

Meanwhile 5 Ropucha-class landing ships and 1 Ivan Gren-class landing ship are now in the English Channel on their way from the Baltic fleet to, at a guess, the Black Sea.

Are they going to support a landing force around Odessa, or similar, or are they off to help out the Syrian Express?

Interesting that an Ivor Gren is among them. First time our of the Baltic.

The photos show the Ropucha as fairly well loaded, they don't look empty, so first stop Tartus?

Post copied to Russian aid to Syria thread.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-amphibious-assault-flotilla-to-transit-english-channel/

Isos wrote:

ALAMO wrote:The show is not for Ukrs.

I know and since the last show nato send even more weapons and pushed even more for ukraine into nato... it's a failing strategy and they seem to stick with it and even loosing more energy by sending even more stuff than last time.

They didn't send nearly what russia sent at the borders.

But I agree. It's pointless. Let the US walk into a trap.  Instead if showing force, just quietly position yourself and prepare your bombers and missile forces to be ready at any minutes notice. Pre determine bases, formations and airfields with your missiles and that's that.

As well, I would say have caches ready of weapons and trains loaded with equipment Russia is willing to give away to DNR and LNR forces. Move AD systems a tad closer to the borders to prepare a no fly zone.

Useless or not, the UK show continues: https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1483899430378127365

zorobabel wrote:Useless or not, the UK show continues: https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1483899430378127365

UK breaking the agreements. Russia will need to keep tabs so when the fire is lit, they have this as a reason to strike hard.

"Blinken Rushes to Meet Lavrov as Ukraine Tensions Spike and SWIFT Sanction Threat Unravels"

Blinking is rather despised. And viewed as rather an idiot (he thinks he is smarter than he is).

Nothing will come of it.

The Poroshenko bots are mobilizing in Kiev



There was already a scuffle with the police outside a courthouse

Never ending circus this country is

Sheep and sheepherders.

If you don't have your guy on the job, someone will fill it. Simple as.

February can't come soon enough.

flamming_python wrote: but there aren't really any alternative political forces to sponsor there for Russia in any case, so outright destabilization will probably be a bridge too far as far as any Russian objectives go.

Interestingly in this case that would be the smartest move and I assume there are enough pissed off and suppressed citizens in Ukraine to cooperate with that. Generalized rebellion at the same time the army is busy at the Donbass would be a very nice payback fro the Maidan, Arab Spring and so many colour revolutions

kvs wrote:
I think NATzO will use any Russian response to the Kiev regime
invasion of the Donbass to invade Ukria itself. The talk about simply supplying additional weapons is a stupid joke. They could
supply Ukria with thousands of Abrams and F-22s and it would do f*ck all in saving the regime and letting it roll over the Donbass.
NATzO is planning an occupation to prop up its puppet regime.

I would say that would be the ultimate insanity & delusion combo, but every time I think these retards have maxed themselves, they get even further. They do not have any way to deploy the amount of forces they would need to make a dent on the Russian capabilities, and they would suffer the biggest defeat and face loss in their history, literally putting an end to their hegemony. But for the guys cheering to "rain destruction" on Russia, this may seem a good idea, I frankly don't know what to think anymore...

I hope when Russia does decide to strike its fast, swift, merciless, and with the fury of God so all of our western kleptocrats give up their nonsense ambitions.

I hope Putin does not back away from this redline. He told them in 2008 Ukraine+nato= world war 3.

They wanted the smoke now Putin needs to make them take a deep breath and inhale.

Biden:

"Russia will be held accountable if it invades and it depends on what it does - it's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up having to fight about what to do and what not to do , but if they actually do what they're capable of doing with the force amassed on the border it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine," Biden said, adding that Russia has overwhelming superiority over Ukraine.

The U.S wants the Georgia 2.0 OP. They literally spell it out in their threats. That old babbling fool can't even contain himself.

They're shit scared of a bigger, more complex operation. It sends the wrong kind of message to their sheep everywhere. Bluffs can be called right out on the spot.

A Georgia 2.0 operation does nothing to change the chessboard. It's meaningless. That's why the "West" prefers it. Say you destroy the Ukranian army, recognize the Republics as independent - what have you really achieved on the chessboard? The pestilent pawn will still be there tomorrow, to bother you and rot your periphery. New armament can be brought in, dead puppets replaced, new schemes and provocations hatched... constant pressure. 

Why go through all the trouble of temporarily destroying a pawns ability to hurt you if you're not willing to take the pawn's power for yourself? The only reason you see youself in this predicament is because you have no control of the pawn (your enemies do). Thus you're merely postponing.... not actually dealing a killing blow (you can't kill landmass - unless nuked).

Moreover such an insignificant operation strengthens the dividing lines (demarcates them for free for good) and makes Russia the boogieman on sanctions anyway, without actually hurting the West interests with the Ukrainian project. It will only ferment even more Russian phobia within Ukraine as the social engineers, masters of propaganda will have the perfect gift for a further poisoning of the minds of the common sheep - fertile ground - unimpeded and without competition. Perfect excuse for NATO to go in too - slowly from the Western side. The West likes the slow rotting corpse of Ukraine on Russia's border.... indefinitely on IMF loans (printed numbers on a computer spreadsheet).

This all you need to know.

If Russia goes for a more complex operation that catches the West by surprise, the West can sanction to hell and back with the sanctions from hell, cancelling NS2 etc but the ramifications of it will have both immediate and lasting consequences for them as well - way too many variables for the West to count and game. Open escalation ladder.

Thus it's easy to see which approach/operation sets your enemy off-balance, and which approach is favored by them as a status-quo. They like the snail pace, push - little by little- push. They excel at it, they've gamed it. It has worked.

Somehow the armchairs here are rooting for a Georgia 2.0 OP (propaganda conditioning after all). Go ahead and defeat yourself, slowly. Doesn't matter how much Russia drags the pain and plays stupid games. Fear leads to forced restraint, restraint leads to traps....weakness. The West is counting on it - as they should. No place for the weak at the top of the food chain.

The bottom-line, the U.S has moved further East into Russia's former territories... Russia can't move further West or else. The West is looking to cement their gains in Ukraine, courtesy of Putin and his cadre. They don't give two shits if Russia recognizes the Donbass as independent republics, just like South Ossetia etc - as long as the pawn never really falls - that's what really matters. If Putin settles on those terms, Russia's only hope is for the empire to self-implode. That's an abysmal, desperate, weak strategy full of holes and assumptions. No fort is impenetrable and Russia ain't a fort, matter of fact, it's leaky datcha. Hence, the need for new leadership - god knows you'll need it. Legacy on the line for Putin among other Russian greats.

I have a feeling that it's time for a Russian-Iranian-Houthi joint invasion of Saudi Arabia

Like I said Putin and the military leadership know their judo and Sun Tzu

On the Ukrainian frontier, Russia is in the position of having to react, rather than being the one with initiative. The way to change that is to make moves on another front.

flamming_python wrote:I have a feeling that it's time for a Russian-Iranian-Houthi joint invasion of Saudi Arabia

Like I said Putin and the military leadership know their judo and Sun Tzu

On the Ukrainian frontier, Russia is in the position of having to react, rather than being the one with initiative. The way to change that is to make moves on another front.

The option to react rather than make the initiative as you say, is the best option honestly. It gives Russia still the ability of surprise by being able to strike quick. I think it wouldn't take more than 24hrs to at least get a few planes in the air to launch long range cruise missiles and some ships in the black sea or Caspian sea to do the same thing to Ukrainian sites. I just imagine they need the time to make sure they have up to date information of positions and facilities.

miketheterrible wrote:

flamming_python wrote:I have a feeling that it's time for a Russian-Iranian-Houthi joint invasion of Saudi Arabia

Like I said Putin and the military leadership know their judo and Sun Tzu

On the Ukrainian frontier, Russia is in the position of having to react, rather than being the one with initiative. The way to change that is to make moves on another front.

The option to react rather than make the initiative as you say, is the best option honestly.  It gives Russia still the ability of surprise by being able to strike quick.  I think it wouldn't take more than 24hrs to at least get a few planes in the air to launch long range cruise missiles and some ships in the black sea or Caspian sea to do the same thing to Ukrainian sites.  I just imagine they need the time to make sure they have up to date information of positions and facilities.

The thing about the Ukraine is that we can't live with them, and we can't live without them

We can't just attack them in an all-out escalation. Millions of Russians have family ties to there. There are millions of Ukrainians in Russia. Russian public opinion would be against it. It would validate all the US propaganda in Europe about Russian aggression.

No-one would care if Russia is technically the one reacting to an attack on the Donbass, it's about how it would ultimately be interpreted.

Russia's best option is to freeze the Ukrainian front and curtail the options of anyone who emerges on top in the current power struggle in Kiev.

flamming_python wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

flamming_python wrote:I have a feeling that it's time for a Russian-Iranian-Houthi joint invasion of Saudi Arabia

Like I said Putin and the military leadership know their judo and Sun Tzu

On the Ukrainian frontier, Russia is in the position of having to react, rather than being the one with initiative. The way to change that is to make moves on another front.

The option to react rather than make the initiative as you say, is the best option honestly.  It gives Russia still the ability of surprise by being able to strike quick.  I think it wouldn't take more than 24hrs to at least get a few planes in the air to launch long range cruise missiles and some ships in the black sea or Caspian sea to do the same thing to Ukrainian sites.  I just imagine they need the time to make sure they have up to date information of positions and facilities.

The thing about the Ukraine is that we can't live with them, and we can't live without them

We can't just attack them in an all-out escalation. Millions of Russians have family ties to there. There are millions of Ukrainians in Russia. Russian public opinion would be against it. It would validate all the US propaganda in Europe about Russian aggression.

No-one would care if Russia is technically the one reacting to an attack on the Donbass, it's about how it would ultimately be interpreted.

Russia's best option is to freeze the Ukrainian front and curtail the options of anyone who emerges on top in the current power struggle in Kiev.

If Russians are against it, then your country is fucked. Essentially Russians are getting killed and Russians are worried about "Ukrainians"?

I think you may feel your fellow compatriots are stupid compared to what they really are.  I feel that it may be the opposite, Russians were flooding to join on the battle against Ukraine so I would wager they are OK with fighting Ukraine.

Are Russians that stupid that they can't see what is happening? How would they believe what the west says regarding it even now?

Once again, I think you take your fellow countrymen for stupid.

I think if Russia doesn't act by destroying Ukraines military capabilities and command during a conflict, the government of Russia would collapse and a more dangerous person, who would start conflicts at drop of the hat.

Let's not forget, lots of Georgians live in Russia. Lots of Russians have family in Georgia.  Didn't stop Russia from destroying Georgia's military.

Once again, I shall reiterate, we are talking about striking Ukraines military capabilities and high command. The rest will fall and Ukraine would partition. I think most in Russia besides the 5th columnists and Ukrainian morons would be against it. And I don't think Russia wouldnt be upset shipping those guys back to whatever home they have left.

Please excuse my constant edits as I'm kinda going on with trying to articulate this over time. Plus trying to fix errors thanks to mobile phone.