2022 Kazakhstan violent unrest

Urluber wrote:Plenty of civilian airplanes in Kazakh airspace still.
I would like to see it closed off, just in case. Even if all government stocks of air defence systems are in the know, there has been months of preparation leading to this situation and no one can be sure what has been smuggled in the country. Even during the chaotic past day(s) when Almaty was in hands of aggressors. Hard to rule out potential provocation like shootdown of airliner - it's integral part of US playbook.

Scorpius wrote:Approximate composition of the Collective Peacekeeping Forces of the CSTO sent to Kazakhstan:

Russia - 3000
Belarus - 500
Tajikistan - 200
Armenia - 70

Kyrgyzstan has officially decided not to support the CSTO

nomadski wrote:@ flamming_python

I don't pretend that I understand it all . But you seem to know . I think the majority of the people looking on , don't know exactly what is going on . And that is the problem . All we see , is Boots on the ground , shooting . Some people shooting back . This is exactly the type of  confusing situation that opportunists use to get into power . And I think an early premature and unnecessary entrance by CSTO , into Kazakh security situation , may have the exact opposite desired effect .

At the moment , I only understand this early intervention if :

( 1 )  As part of CSTO , agreement exists for intervention in purely internal civil disturbances .

( 2 )  That there exists an immediate threat to Russia or others , in case of collapse of Kazakh government .

( 3 )  That there is ethnic cleansing or attacks against Russians in Kazakhistan .

Are any of these conditions true ? To justify early intervention inside Kazakhistan ? I don't know about cases 1 . But we do not get know what regime replaces the present order ! So we can not become paranoid yet ! And I have heard of no ethnic problems against Russians , like say Ukraine . It seems very much like an internal power struggle . At the moment , I see the danger from NATO involvement , as exemplified by this plane coming in ! And job of CSTO , in protecting Kazakhistan land and sea and air border . Leaving the internal situation to the people , and only intervention , when it has become clear and necessary and friend and foe is known !

In connection with the appeal of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan K.-J.K.Tokayev and in view of the threat to national security and sovereignty of the Republic of Kazakhstan caused, inter alia, by outside interference, the CSTO Collective Security Council, in accordance with article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty, decided to send Collective Peacekeeping Forces of the CSTO to the Republic of Kazakhstan for a limited period in order to stabilize and normalize the situation in this country

Nikol Pashinyan

Chairman of the CSTO Collective Security Council,

Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia

flamming_python wrote:https://www.mk.ru/politics/2022/01/06/v-aktau-protestuyushhie-zayavili-ob-uspeshnom-izgnanii-nazarbaeva.html

Protestors in Aktau, Western Kazakhstan are saying that their demands are satisfied, now that Nazerbayev has been run out of power, and they're going home. I guess they've seen which way the wind is blowing. Or maybe they got the order to stand down.

miketheterrible wrote:

So what's Kyrgyzstans excuse?  

Scorpius wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

So what's Kyrgyzstans excuse?  

The official position has not been announced, this is a personal order of the President of Kyrgyzstan.

ALAMO wrote:

flamming_python wrote:https://www.mk.ru/politics/2022/01/06/v-aktau-protestuyushhie-zayavili-ob-uspeshnom-izgnanii-nazarbaeva.html

Protestors in Aktau, Western Kazakhstan are saying that their demands are satisfied, now that Nazerbayev has been run out of power, and they're going home. I guess they've seen which way the wind is blowing. Or maybe they got the order to stand down.

Nah, that is not the case.
Those protests started in Aktau, but were peaceful there from the beginning. The pics we can see, with police&omon joining the protesters - are all made there.
So as soon as Takayev dismissed the govt, Nazarbayev and his goons from power, plus revised the fuel prices policy back where it was - the people are cool.
They get what they wanted, no point in riots.
What is happening in Almaty, is a different animal. A staged & orchestrated coup, and if you ask me, it is made by the Ukrainian scenario. Those nationalistic movements that raised extremely high n the last 3-4 years are just a cover for something bigger, staged in Kazachstan. Kaz is an important part of a silk belt infrastructure. By destabilizing it, you hit two ducks with one stone.

flamming_python wrote:

It was always going to reverse, even if Slavic migration to Kazakhstan kept up

Under Soviet-era social guarantees and maternity policies, Kazakh mothers in the villages were having 5-6 kids, while the fertility dynamics of Slavs in the Soviet Union was declining from the late 60s onwards.

miketheterrible wrote:...But serious reform will be needed. And a huge sacking of military and security officials and units. New units will need to be formed...

Scorpius wrote:Approximate composition of the Collective Peacekeeping Forces of the CSTO sent to Kazakhstan:

Russia - 3000
Belarus - 500
Tajikistan - 200
Armenia - 70

Kyrgyzstan has officially decided not to support the CSTO