The Situation in the Ukraine. #32

They should call these systems 'Mother NLAWs', because you'll eventually grow to hate it!

The snowfall did not allow the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to exercise the use of NLAW complexes against conditional helicopters



Information has been confirmed that less than a hundred kilometers from the borders of Russia, Ukrainian military personnel were training with NLAW anti-tank systems, which were delivered in a fair amount from the UK. Recall that the delivery was accompanied by friction within the "single" North Atlantic bloc. British military transport aircraft had to deliver anti-tank systems to Ukraine overflying German territory - through Danish airspace. The reason is that official Berlin does not support the arms supply program for the needs of the Ukrainian army.

Training with NLAW missile systems is carried out by servicemen of the 72nd separate brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, called the "Black Cossacks brigade". These trainings are carried out on the basis of the 169th Desna training center, which is located in the Kozeletsky district of Chernihiv region. In a straight line to the Bryansk region from there about 90 km, to the border with the Republic of Belarus and no more than 20 km.

It is noteworthy that the military personnel of the 72nd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine trained to use NLAW not only as anti-tank weapons, but also as systems capable of hitting targets in the air. Mainly, we are talking about helicopters.



We had to train during heavy snowfall. This snowfall ultimately led to the fact that the use of missile systems against conditional helicopters could not be carried out. If real (and not conditional) all-weather rotorcraft had to be counteracted, then NLAW would definitely not have helped.

At the same time, before training, the Ukrainian military said that the characteristics of the NLAW complexes allow them to hit Tanks with armor protection up to 500 mm from a distance of up to 800 m. However, during training it turned out that there are problems with the defeat of ground armored targets at such distances. The fact is that the Ukrainian military decided that they were supplied with upgraded versions of the NLAW systems, capable of really hitting tanks from a distance of 800 or even 1000 m. But the NLAW systems of the usual version were delivered. This version allows you to fire at a distance of up to 600 m, which looks more than modest for modern combat. A fighter with NLAW can become a target for a sniper, and the range of a modern tank gun is clearly more than 600 m.

https://en.topwar.ru/192142-snegopad-ne-pozvolil-voennosluzhaschim-vsu-osuschestvit-trenirovku-primenenija-kompleksov-nlaw-protiv-uslovnyh-vertoletov.html

Isos wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:A Russian invasion of Ukraine would be more costly than its worth, what type of fool would think they want to invade?.

Do you have any idea how costly Ukraine would be to their budget? Do you have any idea how many Russian troops will die during insurgency attacks?.

Its easy to talk big and say Russia should invade, when you don't have to die for it.

Russia will not invade unless they feel there is truly no other choice, the political repercussion alone and all the heat they would draw isn't worth Ukraine.

If the EU can agree with Russia for a Neutral Ukraine then Putin will accept that deal, he merely wants it out of NATO he doesn't want the land its self. If you want to sit there and yell they should invade then sign up for the army and lay down your life.

There is no other choice. EU and US already rejected russian proposals and ukrainians are still talking about NATO membership. It's already too late, Putin has made its decision.

Cost will be low compare to what Ukraine will have to pay.

Invasion doesn't mean occupation. Attack, blow up their bases, destroy the political regime and leave.

Its easy to talk big and say insurgency will go die during attacks on russians, when you don't have to die for it.

They didn't object to all of russias proposals but Russia has made it clear its either all or nothing. Thus NATO keeps saying Ukraine is open to joining but it's their right to want to join, but their acceptance won't happen and everyone knows this. Europe is cracking under pressure and wanting to negotiate with Russia so its really just US and UK pulling this nonsense and it will backfire because EU for most part won't assist and thus limits US and UK's movements and they know its a dead end.

Ukraine is aware as well hence why the recent anger between Ukraine and US. In the end, it will just he like Georgia as said earlier where US will send Mercenaries and weapons, and claim ignorance when those Mercenaries dead bodies are videoed with US passports and proof of military service.

Too much itching. Welcome next week.

The UK/U.S want a specific set of actions out of Moscow should the U.S/UK/Ukraine proceed with their provocation... a set of actions that fall within a range of gamed outcomes that they've already strategized for a long time. Moscow folding altogether is an ideal but unrealistic prospect....so since realism kicks in, you game what's most likely to be the Russian responses. Since the enemy (Russia) can unpredictably behave to something you didn't imagine or game, you levy your own threats to narrow the opponents response to a palatable range that you've gamed and feel comfortable with. To gauge your opponents intent you do what U.S/UK diplomats and high rank military personal are doing - a lot of contacts (in the name of diplomacy, descalation and civility - it's however, as everyone knows -except dimwits on the net drunk on propaganda - war by other means - that's, deception). That's why they go to the Kremlin, to make sure they get a response that falls within their ideal range of potential Russian responses... it's competence to do so.

Their job is not to strategically surrender at the Kremlin considering the Kremlin is an opponent that's pushed to a wall and cornered. The power dynamics favor them by a significant margin. They treat Putin as two bit dictator, an aristocrat, and engage with him accordingly.... vising the Kremlin so as to provide Putin and his cadre with ego boosts for internal Russian consumption.... all part of the strategy ... to get what they want. Just like Macron earlier. It has worked in the past with Putin and previous Russian leadership of recent times so why shouldn't it work now? Or so is the rationale.... if the dog likes "recognition" and "attention" you give him that to get what you want. It's a dirty game that must be played. What matters is the facts on the ground. Everyone is after their own interests.

There is something being planned, they won't send this much aid for nothing.

flamming_python wrote:This article certainly connects some of the dots, but its main conclusion I object to

Hey, feel free to correct Ishchenko, he is just the deepest and most knowledgeable analyst out there

Russia is not raising the stakes for the US.

Of course they are raising the stakes. US is speculating about laying a trap for Russia and luring them (rather forcing them) to fall on it, Russia is answering by suggesting the possibility that they do fall in the trap, tear it apart and then have the hunter for lunch. That is why they are moving troops to Belarus, using the VMF and letting UKUS know in how many creative ways their pain points can be hit. The risk here is that this is exactly how world wars start, they are not a historical coincidence but the way military unbalances are sorted out on a global scale.

If it conducts a full-scale invasion, one way or the other that would be a win for the US-UK and pals, even if they suffer some collateral damage tactically. Russia on the other hand will have on its hands the illegal occupation of a massive territory and ensuing insurgency.

Let us don't fool ourselves, Russia cannot decide whether there will be a war, but they can indeed decide where to take it. Probably that is the reason why it is said that they don't start the wars, but they normally finish them. US will succeed if they manage to swamp Russia in a nasty conflict with their neighbours and force the EU on their side. But Russia can counterattack in a myriad of ways and ruin their cost-benefit calculations. Having to abandon Eastern Europe with the leg between their legs in front of the Russian military might will have a massive reputational cost for the US and attract many countries into the arms of Russia and China. US may get kicked out of the ME and SE Asia at the same time or as a consequence. Europe may see revolts that will not be handled with the customary propaganda, new internal elites can raise there too, as their economy is destroyed. US may finally get their naval dominance challenged with means they cannot counter and lose any chance to take advantage of the chaos created in Europa to loot the Global South (hence the AUKUS stunt). There are many possible outcomes once shit hits the fan.

The only Russian goal that makes sense is knocking sense into the Ukraine and Europeans, to disavow any such US plan and not go through with any provocations. Then on the contrary, the US will be left blue-faced over all its tall claims of imminent Russian aggression, and France/Germany will be able to distance the EU from Washington

Certainly that must be the first and main goal, but Russia's odds are much better once the ukies and the EU really feel their necks in the chop block. So Russian military threat must be overwhelming and must be REAL. Why would Russia be interested in being screwed and leaving untouched Europe for the US to loot it? Or to avoid bringing the heat to CONUS or any of their multiple interests in the world? What do they win with it? That Collective Security Russia continuously talks about means in plain terms that if you screw me, I will screw you. Without compassion.

There are early indications that Russia appears to be succeeding. Macron worked out some proposals with Putin. Zelensky appeared receptive. The 9-hour talks although they ended without agreement, did end up with the Ukrainians stating that the Minsk process must be adhered to (even if in somewhat their 'own' interpretation). There are more talks scheduled in 2 weeks from now. The contact line is quiet.
The US meanwhile has just called for all US citizens to leave the country, spreading panic about invasion again to put pressure on Kiev.

They are smart enough to sense the danger, but I am not sure they have the spine to draw a line and stand for it. Macron is a WEF boy, though very ambitious, will he raise up to the task? Never say never and I think people are slowly starting to wake up, bu if the best bets are him, Draghi and Scholz, (though US stupidity plays a huge role too), allow me not to be too optimistic. It may work, but it certainly may not.

If I was living in occupied Donbass, I would try to get out of there asap. It is just too easy to escalate the situation at the contact line, use the confusion to stage some carnage (as gruesome as possible) among actual Russian population at the ukie side (better victims than anyone else), blame that attack on the "Russian occupation forces" in LDNR, unleash hell against them in retaliation (while forcing EU to fold to the narrative and abandon any ties with Russia for good), and then create the biggest hysteria we have seen if and when Russia enters the fray to repel the nazis. The plan has many, many holes, but they have pulled off worse stunts thanks to the impossibly dumb Western population and their spineless "elites". The stage is set and the journos are in place, the farce can start any time.

JohninMK wrote:This will get some headlines

Black Sea Fleet has sailed.
More than 30 ships.
Including the Moskva.
Officially for pre-anounced exercises.
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/2022212522-CUUu9.html

Russia will not initiate anything, though western media will make that claim anyway... like they did in South Ossetia.

Russia will respond to Kievs stupidity, but they don't need to start anything.

There are a lot of people with scores to settle as Auslander points out, but taking all of the Ukraine off Americas hands so they can blame any problems on Russia like they are blaming them even now makes no sense for Russia.

There are plenty of things Russia could do to really upset the west if they felt they were in a corner with no other option.

Invading Ukraine is not one of them... what would they do in the unlikely event they took it over completely... a hostile population supported by the west... for one Turkey would likely transfer all the terrorists from Idlib to Kiev... a great way for them to get rid of rubbish they don't want... but again not good for Russia.

Russia does not need or want the Ukraine... the Ukraine is broken and needs an enormous amount of work and would never see itself as part of Russia ever again anyway.

When Russia does not get any guarantees from the EU or US then it will likely start to look to the rest of the world and close off relations with the west... when they start getting customers for their gas then the EU will no longer be a priority customer because it is already a pain in the arse.

Kiev cannot keep its forces on the border forever and when they stand down the Russians can stand down their forces... if Kiev attacks then they will be crushed like a bug... no invasion needed... unlike the situation in South Ossetia however I think Russia will take advantage of their artillery capacity and long range precision strike capacity to deal with a few thorns... nothing the west didn't do in Serbia or Iraq of course...

British newspaper: Russia deployed 2S7 Pion guns capable of firing nuclear weapons near the borders of Ukraine

The British press writes that Defense Minister Ben Wallace, who held talks with his Russian counterpart in Moscow, announced "a significant degree of the likelihood of a Russian attack on Ukraine, despite Sergei Shoigu's statements about the absence of such intentions." At the same time, the mayor of Kiev, Vitaliy Klitschko, is quoted as saying that "in the near future, terrorist attacks can be expected in the Ukrainian capital, which could lead to a disconnection of communications and the Internet."

The Daily Mail published an article by columnists Harry Howard, Chris Jewers and Nick Kreyvin, which is dedicated to the topic of "preparing Russia for an invasion." The material, which is another element of anti-Russian pumping against the background of the actual preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for an attack on the Donbass, refers to a "dangerous event." Such an “event” refers to the transfer of “special types of Russian weapons to the borders of Ukraine”.

The material of British journalists literally says the following:

Videos have appeared on social networks showing the transfer of Russian cannons capable of firing nuclear weapons to the Ukrainian border. These are self-propelled guns 2S7 "Peony".

The Daily Mail writes that several of these artillery installations were deployed "close to the Ukrainian border" and placed within reach of major Ukrainian cities:

Moscow's atomic cannons are only ten miles from the Ukrainian border. In the area of ​​Belgorod.

This sentence alone reveals the essence of the informational message of British journalists. This essence consists in once again causing fear, which will then be used for the next anti-Russian sanctions.

A British newspaper tells its readers (many of whom not only do not know what the 2S7 Pion is, but also where Belgorod is located) that the Russian "atomic cannon" has been one of the most powerful artillery pieces in the world since Soviet times. It is capable of firing at impressive distances with 203 mm shells, "capable of destroying everything in vast areas."

Howard, Jewers and Kreyvin decided to remind their readers to increase the informational pressure that "the Kremlin has previously stated that there is a significant risk of a nuclear war if Ukraine is accepted into NATO."

The same material states that “due to the increasing risks, the British government called on all subjects of the kingdom to leave the territory of Ukraine as soon as possible.”

Meanwhile, Russia notes that if the attack does take place, it will be carried out by the Ukrainian army (into Donbass) with the support of NATO countries pumping up Ukraine weapons. In such a situation, Russia will no longer be able to stay away from the military conflict in the Donbass, which can be used by the same West to accuse the Russian Federation of “invading Ukraine.”

https://en.topwar.ru/192203-britanskaja-gazeta-rossija-razmestila-u-granic-ukrainy-sposobnye-streljat-jadernymi-boepripasami-pushki-2s7-pion.html

Good false flag material if you ask me... explode a tactical nuke at some Ukrainian city close to the border and there will be no European leader with the balls to resist

Isos wrote:EU countries were part of genocides. Don't hink they will stop all their relations with their number 1 gas provider that has huge stocks left for the sake of Ukrainians.

Of course they don't want and they don't give a damn about Ukrainians, regardless of that the idea is to force them to comply through some brutal event blamed on the Russians and through the manipulation of the public opinion. The big concern is that if a light provocation does not work, a bigger one will do, therefore the Anglos have all incentives to pull all stops with this one. In their opinion they have little to lose, see here:

When the US will set fire to the Donbass

https://ria.ru/20220211/donbass-1772135186.html

In the Sevastopol local news:

Diplomats and employees of Russian consulates began to leave Ukraine. A source told RIA Novosti about their possible departure on Saturday, February 12, citing statements by Ukrainian citizens. According to him, there is also evidence that there are difficulties in making appointments at consulates and embassies.

“Against the background of the evacuation officially announced by a number of Western countries, this suggests that Moscow has decided to go the same way,” the agency’s interlocutor explained. He recalled that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hinted at the possibility of such a development of events during a press conference following negotiations with British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss - then this issue was under active development.

A number of countries recommended their citizens to leave Ukraine in the near future. South Korea has banned compatriots from visiting the territory of the crisis state since January 13. Britain announced the evacuation of embassy staff, and it also became known about the US intention to take out its diplomats. Source: Lenta.ru

February 12, 2022 - 12:25 Local Sevastopol News via ForPost.
More than 30 ships of the Black Sea Fleet went to sea for large-scale exercise. The current maneuvers will be part of the preparations for naval exercises. Three dozen ships of the Black Sea Fleet will take part in large-scale maneuvers, they told reporters in the information support department of the fleet.
"More than 30 ships of the Black Sea Fleet put to sea from Sevastopol and Novorossiysk according to the exercise plan," the report says. Among them are frigates, patrol and small missile ships, missile boats, landing and small anti-submarine ships, as well as mine defense ships. During the maneuvers, naval formations, units of coastal troops and aviation of the fleet will conduct rocket and artillery firing, strike at sea, coastal and air targets. The exercises are led by the commander of the Black Sea Fleet Igor Osipov. Their goal is the defense of the Crimean coast, the bases of the Black Sea Fleet, objects of the economic sector, as well as maritime communications and areas of maritime economic activity from possible military threats.
The current maneuvers will become part of the preparations for naval exercises under the general supervision of the Commander-in-Chief of the Navy, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov. It is planned to involve more than 140 warships and support vessels, more than 60 aircraft, a thousand units of military equipment and about ten thousand military personnel to participate in them.
Source: RIA Novosti

Auslander

flamming_python wrote:British forces are leaving the Ukraine now

I believe an agreement has actually been reached though. Ben Wallace sounded confident after his meeting with Shoigu and Gerasimov yesterday.

All these countries will bugger off with their soldiers and embassy staff in an act of theatre, Russia will finish its exercises and return its troops to their permanent positions of deployment, and the Ukraine will have to implement the Minsk agreements, however long it takes. That will leave NATO membership as an unattainable prospect in practice.

You are just blowing smoke right now.

As if the Mighty Ukraine has been the main obstacle towards reaching a workable agreement in this whole circus.

I have some questions for Auslander, who is better informed. I read in Yandex, that a lot of volunteers from other regions of Ukraine come to LDNR to fight together with LDNR army against US-nazi regime in Kiev, to liberate Ukraine. it also seems, that Harkov become a center of resistance against evil clown and that nazi radikals are leaving Harkov, as they don't believe Ukrainian army will succede in war in Donbass. That "patriotic marsh" in Harkov few days ago was done with nazi radical groups, which come in Harkov from western parts of Ukraine and that there were no citizens of Harkov.

flamming_python wrote:

sundoesntrise wrote:

flamming_python wrote:British forces are leaving the Ukraine now

I believe an agreement has actually been reached though. Ben Wallace sounded confident after his meeting with Shoigu and Gerasimov yesterday.

All these countries will bugger off with their soldiers and embassy staff in an act of theatre, Russia will finish its exercises and return its troops to their permanent positions of deployment, and the Ukraine will have to implement the Minsk agreements, however long it takes. That will leave NATO membership as an unattainable prospect in practice.

You are just blowing smoke right now.

As if the Mighty Ukraine has been the main obstacle towards reaching a workable agreement in this whole circus.

Not the mighty Ukraine, but certainly its external expansion as a soup-bubble that was given carte-blanche to wipe its ass with the documents it itself signed and were ratified at the UN

I'm moderately optimistic that this problem has been solved now and the Ukraine will have to implement Minsk to the letter, whether it be now or it takes years. Mr. Wallace pretty much said as much in his press conference at the British embassy in Moscow. Russia essentially has its non-expansion of NATO guarantee to the Ukraine if so.

All that's left are the negotiations over the US missile bases in Poland and Romania, but that's something that will be tied with the Zirkon missile equipped on Russian subs, and so on. Another conversation for a later time.

Quick reminder that all of this theorizing is on the basis of a frigging photo, whilst disregarding 30 years of unilateral belligerence.

I'd also suggest Russia not to trust 'their western partners' on their word (if Wallace even said what you are alleging here). It's not as if that hasn't happened before.

flamming_python wrote:

Well you can check out the press conference yourself and come to your own conclusions

Starts at 1:14:40



The dynamics of Europe are such that Russia and the UK, as periphery states, always come together when continental Europe becomes too 'united' so to speak.

I see it as plausible that the UK (US) agreed to manage Russian security concerns and increase their own ties, at the expense of France and Germany grabbing the initiative.
If France and Germany had the power to force Kiev to comply with Minsk, it would have been a different story.
But as Kozak's press conference after the 9-hour Normandy Format talks on Thursday night suggests, France and Germany did not put pressure on Kiev and allowed it to interpret Minsk in its own way.
1:33:20 Wallace answers a question about how he understands the Minsk document, where he answers that he interprets it as what is actually written there. Then he hints that the process can take years. Which on the one hand, is the US and UK playing for time and drawing out Russia's demands for a response on NATO expansion; but effectively it also means that the Ukraine is stuck in implementing Minsk, which was Russia's preferred solution in the first place and takes away the threat of it ever joining NATO.

As you can see, it's not about trust. It's about signed guarantees.

The only dynamic that matters is the rabiate dedication much of the 'Western partners' have to the destruction of Russia. A dynamic that has withstood the test of time and should be the main prisms through which this whole charade is viewed

Once that sinks in cheap words from interchangeable clowns in a suit suddenly become a lot less reassuring. Especially when these people are actually not saying anything new.

If Putin lets this slide and pulls his turd back in there'll be advanced NATO missile systems on Ukrainian territory within 12 months.

You can take that to the bank.