If Russia wants to do a real false flag to go in than they should do it.
False flags are western events to allow them to do something illegal that they want to do.
No one in Europe or America believes that Ukraine is attacking now with Russia having 200,000 soldiers on the border ready to pounce. What’s the point of publishing these ridiculous stories even if they are true?
Who cares if western audiences believe it or not... I think they are past caring what the west thinks.
It would only be ridiculous if it is made up, and so far the track record for making up fake news is pretty clear for both sides.
It's a game
Same reason the US is pushing these ridiculous stories.
Or it could simply actually have happened... I would think Kiev would be very keen to get Russia to appear to start something... they would be attracting all sorts of scum to their cause... all sorts of losers keen to take a swipe at Russia, but you can't put them on the front line... if they see the standard Orc soldier they will leave, so you give them special missions behind enemy lines...
Let's wait until February 30 for that invasion, but I think Nord Stream 2 looks ready to go
That is obviously a trick though so when the real invasion on the 21st or the 32nd of February comes they will be totally surprised...
Sorry I doubt Ukraine is doing anything. What are they desperate for?
They have all their troops on the front line, but they have no money... and instead of money they are getting time expired missiles given to them... they can't eat missiles...
Why would they run in and suicide themselves?
Because their believe western propaganda... they are facing Putins men and Putins men are weak and stupid and poorly equipped and led and will run away at the sight of you.
Because they are being ordered to go to start something so they can blame the rebels for starting a war because they can't survive peace for very much longer.
Russia’s playing the propaganda game just like the west.
But why?
They will assume all the west and the Ukraine will just no believe anything they say, so what is it for?
Most of the west wont even report it... but there will be some paying attention...
So there is no urgency for Russia to undermine the Minsk Agreements.
Ultimately, Russia will recognize the LDNR and possibly other pieces of Banderastan as it falls apart.
They have had 7-8 years and two presidents in Kiev, and the shelling of these regions continues... a declaration recognising these regions might be their only chance moving forward.
I thought putin and Russia didn’t give a shit about The D and L now they want to recognize them.
Putin knows they are part of the Ukraine, but if the rest of the Ukraine keeps rejecting them and shelling them, the only thing Russia can do under international law is recognise their right to independence... once they do that they can deal with them directly instead of having to try to deal with them through Kiev.
The fucking propaganda spinsters on this website are going to have to spin another 180 degrees. Russians stocks down as much as 15% just from this meeting. Shorted to hell.
Just interpreting what we see based on what we know about Putin and the evil leadership of the west.
Where is Garry B and archangesk to tell us that this is a Ukrainian only issue and Russia doesn’t care.
It is a Ukrainian issue, until the people in these regions decide to break away from the Ukraine and then they become independent states on Russias border that Russia can communicate and deal with directly.
International law states they have every right to declare independence, which is what seems to be happening now.
Kiev has had years to talk to these people and instead just violence and murder and lectures and blaming everything on Putin and Russia... no wonder Kiev wants to join the west... they should fit right in.
Recognising these republics is a shit pussy move.
It is the only thing Russia can do... once they are independent, they can ask formally for Russian peacekeepers to enter their country and protect them from their violent irrational neighbours.
No need or interest to invade Kiev, but if they want to oppose it militarily....
Russia will get sanctioned for this.
The biggest threats of sanctions wont hurt Russia very much at all... NSII and SWIFT are empty threats that will hurt the EU more than Russia... the result of NSII being cancelled completely will be that Gas prices will double... anyone who currently uses gas in the EU wont be able to afford to continue to use gas, so they will have to look to some other form of energy which will take time which will seriously impact production and business and home life.
America will probably love it because they will likely start buying gas from Russia and so will the UK... just on the sly because it will be so much cheaper than all the other sources of gas they currently have.
Kicking them out of SWIFT means countries wanting to trade with them will have to join their money transfer services, which is great for Russia because once they start using it they can also use it for trading with other Russian clients, and you can bet the fees and costs will be lower than for SWIFT... Kicking Russia off SWIFT creates viable real competition for SWIFT that the west will not have any control of.
Should just move in and make a land bridge to Crimea and grab some more cities and rich gas areas.
Broken cities that need billions to fix up and restore to a decent level, gas areas that would be subject to regular sabotage by unhappy locals who thought their future was with the EU and they are not spending the billions of dollars fixing everything up fast enough.
Russia should allow people to make the choice and not make choices for them like the west does.
Other regions could declare independence and join these regions if they want... they have likely run out of cookies...
No invasion, no charity, but trade with the Russian market where if you work you can earn good money for yourself and lift yourself out of the hole that Kiev has dug for you on the express orders of the US and EU.
Man Putin has chewed Naryshkin out, putin asked YES or NO, when he said Yes, Putin asked YES WHAT, Naryshkin says recognize DNR and LNR as Russia
Putin laughs, that's not what we are talking about, we are talking of recognizing LDNR as INDEPENDENT republics
Naryshkin: Yes yes yes
Hahahaha
This is not Russia expanding... this is Russia saving some Ukrainians from the mad Ukrainians in Kiev.
These Ukrainians want protection and restored access to the Russian market which was their primary market before Kiev went loco.
That will be all they need.... they don't need to convert or all become Russian citizens... this is not a land grab or occupation or the start of an invasion of Europe as Zelensky will likely paint it to be.
It doesn’t matter if it’s independent or a part of Russia. To Europe and America it is all the same.
If you had been paying attention you would realise... Russia is not doing this for America or the EU, they are doing it for humanitarian reasons to help some Ukrainians who are under threat of being killed by other Ukrainians who think they are too Russian, or are Russian... which they clearly are not.
Joining the Russian federation is not on the table... maybe in 5 or 10 years if they still want to join they could probably apply, but this is about protecting them from their crazy Ukrainian neighbours and their artillery and drones.
Welcome to sanctionville and a hardened NATO.
Probably no NS2.
HATO already said it was expanding so any fragment of the Ukraine that wants to become independent is another piece that wont join HATO so a win for Russia.
NS2 was cheap energy for Germany, so Germany loses...
Putin played this so badly honestly an all out invasion is not looking like a bad decision at this point. But he waited until ukrops have javelins and now Russian loss of life will be a lot higher.
If the Orcs want to invade an independent country that country can ask for assistance... an invasion force will mostly consist of armour, which the Russian military is seriously well equipped for dealing with, and with no air control Kiev is the side that will be massacred... don't let the moniker rebel fool you... these are men who had conscription and are fighting for their own country. I wouldn't underestimate them... the only factors they might be lacking is numbers and ammo supplies, but with Russia directly and openly supporting them once they are recognised as independent then those factors disappear... drones and artillery are easy safe ways to deal with large enemy forces on the attack... If you want to volunteer to charge through that... I rather suspect you don't properly understand the question.
As a real solution though it's just shit. Did anyone ask the people of the Donbass whether they're ready for liberating the rest of their administrative territory and for total war, without Russian troops helping?
But the point is that Russia would not take part if they were still part of the Ukraine as they would need Kievs permission to help them, but as independent states they can make their own decisions and ask for help from anyone they please... including Russia... and it then becomes Russias decision as to whether to help and how to help.
With independence Russia can open its borders and restore trade to the region and even sell them weapons and ammo...
Are people in the rest of the Ukraine going to support them or are they brainwashed already (you know the answer to that)
There is no 5 billion dollars and Nuland cookies so how could they possibly decide...
Will the escalation reach a point where Russia invades, past the Donbass (working definitions of which are of no consequence) and somehow takes over Kiev? (as I've been a proponent off?)
Russia will be invited in.
Will the meeting on Feb 24th take place at all?
Would there be any point?
Should have stayed a comedian huh?.
Never stopped, just took the pay cut...
Now imagine if China turns on Russia as well, and they and the West all declare Putin a violator of international law and new Saddam Hussein
Well. Don't say it can't happen What a Face
But that is the point... any people can declare independence if they choose... that is actually international law.... Russia recognising these regions as independent states is Russias right.... just like HATO has the right to accept or not accept members...
Russia can recognise these regions as independent states and can then talk trade and border agreements and security agreements etc etc.
I don't see any good to come from this. If it's a pressure tactic, it didn't work. If it's a bluff, time to call it off has passed. If it's real, then what next? Restart of civil war in the Ukraine?
Kiev could spend the next 20 years talking about Minsk and promising all sorts of things and continue to shell these regions playing the blame game... it is the identical situation as we had in Georgia with drone incursions and shelling etc etc...
This will force things to a head in a way that Russia can legitimately act in its own interests and the interests of these victims of Kievs aggression.
It is really Putins only move.
Stock market down in Russia 15% before sanctions. Time for me to put some money together buy low baby let’s go!!!! Bitcointrader70 gonna get some dough dough dough dough !!
By all means make some money, but the day Russia uses stock market prices, oil and gas prices, and the value of the Ruble to determine its foreign policy is the day they become the US.
Here is Zelensky crying...
The Situation in the Ukraine. #32 - Page 29 Money-crying
That griter signed up for the job for the sole purpose of enriching himself, with Kolomoisky footing it. If Putin, or the U.S boot him off Kiev as damaged goods, that will be the forced vacation retirement he so desperately, "deserves". In a beach somewhere in Caribbean or Ibiza, if I were him.
Demonising your hero... he was the last defence against the invasion of Europe by Putin, but now you out him for the little weasel that he is... are you flip flopping?
China will support out of self serving interests.
Their self serving interests are that taking on the US by itself is much harder than doing it with Russia on their side... helping them out.
Russia sells them Su-35s and S-400s... I rather doubt the US would sell them much of anything at all.
What a waste. What’s the point of acknowledging these 2 shit hole republics. Sanctions are coming. NS2 is gone.
Everyone is crowing about how the west took the eastern european countries and baltic countries and now Ukraine away from Russia... Russia just took those two regions away from HATO and Kiev.
Bring on the sanctions... it will be amusing to see what Putins counter sanctions will look like... and NS2 was cheap gas for Germany... so let them pay more... how on earth does that hurt Russia?
Should have went for the UK propaganda “lighting war” to take Kiev in 2 days like the west was crying about.
There is no way they could have done that cleanly with a hostile population... which would mean lots of video of civilian deaths posted... and for what...
Nobody is answering the question... WTF would Russia do with all of the Ukraine?
Talk about the poisoned gift.
This is Putin capitulating. Fucking sad. Big mistake. Russia gains nothing from this.
This is Putin telling Kiev... follow the minsk agreements and talk to them, or invade... either is fine with Russia, but continuing to shell people and make them leave their homes is not something that can continue for ever.
Russia has patience, but delay is no longer working because there is no pressure on Kiev.
Now there is pressure.
As these regions trade with Russia and grow and recover, the rest of the Ukraine will be asking why are we not trading with Russia and making money too... the west does not want our stuff... the Russians are used to buying it...
Russia' was trying to reach out to the Western powers for over 15 years now. Obviously, they decided enough is enough.
When the US and HATO rejected Russian security demands they basically said there is no respect for Russia as a country or partner, so Russia will turn away from the west and start looking to the rest of the world for cooperation and trade... so the EU not wanting cheap energy from Russia... fine... they could have gotten more money for their gas in Asia... and now they will... which means energy costs in Asia are going to drop, and costs in Europe are going to climb...
Russia was trying to integrate and prevent all of the Russian empire's sphere of influence including its new republics from being absorbed into the Western freight train after the USSR collapsed.
Russia wanted to be a full equal partner, but in the west there are no equal partners... the US is at the top, Israel is next... Saudi Arabia and other oil rich states next and the UK and EU... well let me show you the official graph on the subject...
Notice where the Ukrainian flag is...
And add to that the new Russian doctrine moving forward regarding HATO and the west...
(translation... we don't give a ****... )
What does the action do to the Minsk agreement is the big question?
Kiev can still talk to the leaders of these two regions, but now they have the option to say **** off you had your chance laddo... we don't want or need you any more.
A lesson of Humanity over Dollars
Well said.
Evil has been dealt a serious blow...
The tone of Putin's public address does not conform to this. There will be economic and military assistance. This does not mean invasion.
Now that Russia has recognised these regions, they can sign agreements and be invited on to those territories to help them with the neighbours who think it is OK to shell them.
99% of the speech is about how Ukraine will be a threat from now on, how they will get nuks and how US will use them against Russia.
Recognizing those two republics isn't a solution to the above mentioned threats...
So a war is still very likely.
Russia didn't have any other options.... under international law they had no right to invade, so Kiev was lost... but then the next 20 years of more IMF loans to struggle by on that will need to be paid back in assets and resources... and they might want to join these independent regions or further west join Hungary or other EU country to get onto that gravy train.
Putin giving a history class for this forum.
"They're not Russians... but but Ukranians fighting Ukranians... why should Russia care?" - random dimwit.
How long have you heard of this from the propagandist dimwits here....
Putin didn't say they were joining the Russian Federation... he said they now have their own independent state which Russia recognises as legitimate...
If he wants them to be Russian that is fine but they are not.
Just like Americans are no longer British subjects... the reverse is actually true.
When dear leader debases your arguments you gotta be a shameless asshole to try to spin it. Considering the only reason you made the initial argument is to cover for Putin and cadre himself lol1
Putin failed to mail in this memo for sure.
But dimwits aside, many of them self aware of their clownship...
Didn't you claim Putin would never recognise these regions as independent because of the Minsk agreements?
Predicting the future has as much to do with luck as intelligence, but it is ironic you swing the blame stick... the definition of dumb would be claiming that Putin would invade and get Russia mired in another Afghanistan because that is what the western media was squawking... good little sheep repeating what you learned by wrote... except anyone who paid any attention to Putin would know an invasion to take Kiev would be a violation of international law... something he thinks is important even if the west ignores it or uses it to its advantage.
Now what? The whole of Ukraine except certain parts in the West are Russian lands, with Russians in it..... everyone that has ever touched a history book knows that. How are you gonna go about reclaiming it? The Donbass is just but a simple parcel of land and people, from a much, much bigger pie.
Russia is not going to invade to restore boundaries, but I think locals will vote with their feet to join regions not ruled by ruthless nazis that tell them what language they can or cannot speak.
Let the people decide.
Are you crazy? Ukraine as a state was founded by Lenin, made up of Russian lands and Polish, Hungarian lands, as well as smaller additions. Most of the land belonged to the Russian empire, with Russian subjects aka Russian citizens - before the additions.
Don't let your new western overlords hear you say that... the reality is what they say.
The history is irrelevant, the truth is what is happening now and what is happening now is a group of Ukrainians are shelling another group of Ukrainians while the EU and the US protect them from the international condemnation they would get if they were a country the west didn't want to exploit.
Israel could do this but Syria couldn't... I am sure you understand... flexible ethics and morals... a clear sign of evil.
The dimwits here say they're not Russian in an attempt to damage control Putin's inaction up to this point, in date and time in history, in his weak defense of historical Russian lands and its people. It's a quote mockery of their clownish arguments. Of which I'm sure you're well aware off.
Doesn't matter what Putin says... it matters what the people say and they are saying they are Ukrainian.
Go back 200 years and my ancestors are British... but I am not British, nor am I European... you start a speech saying I am British and I will decide to disagree.
Would be the same with Australians and Americans... why is it so hard to understand Ukrainians also think they are different from Russians too?
Actually, like Puyin said, the left over from USSR allow them to create them pretty quickly. Much more than any other country. And once they get them it's over for Moscow they won't be able to touch them.
Their problem is delivery system... to actually use them you need to deliver them... and also stop your soldiers from selling them to countries who might be desperate to get some... I am pretty sure the west would come down pretty hard on Kiev getting nuclear weapons... in any form.
It looks to me the Minsk2 agreement no lorger exists.
I have another question: Did Russia recognize independance/autonomy of DNR and LNR in their administrative borders...and if so, both republics have a big chunck of their teritorries under Kiev's occupation?
That could be what Minsk 2 will be about.
Believe me, Ukraine is in no position to start nuclear weapons development. They lack the specialists, material and functioning systems. Zenit is all they got that could resemble a ICBM or tochkas at best.
Having nuclear weapons would justify immediate nuclear responses... so anything launched at Moscow would likely be shot down and in response Russia could glass any part of the Ukraine they please in response in case a second missile is launched...
We experience history. 95% of this forum has been waiting for this moment.
Congratulations first of all to the people of Donbas. The next few hours will be interesting.
No actual extra bloodshed, and the promise of an end to perpetual shelling from the Orcs... when modern artillery radars arrive and counter artillery units start taking out the offending guns and rocket launchers the attacks would by definition have to diminish... as they run out of volunteers to commit suicide for the clown in chief... Spongebrain Poopypants.
We are now here as forecast
Peter Hitchens
@ClarkeMicah
·
Feb 20
Jack Matlock was the USA's last ambassador to the USSR: He said expanding NATO: 'may well go down in history as the most profound strategic blunder made since the end of the Cold War.'
The quality of diplomats during the Cold War was much much higher than it is today.
But as Atlasclub says... we just continued playing the game of the cold war... it is not our fault that Russia feels threatened and cornered because we kept playing cold war after the game was supposed to have ended.
Not just that
Their entire North is completely exposed and if hostile military is ever parked there (e.g. pro-western Russia & Friends) they are finished
CCP can either play ball with Russia or wait for their balls to get sliced off by USA and pro-western Russia
Both countries are fighting the current western world order that states only the US can think for itself and have its way... I think most countries that are not part of the west would go with Russia and China on that basis because they will never get to join the west as an equal partner if resource rich and well armed White Russia is clearly not allowed to join.
At the end of last year, the Russian Foreign Ministry estimated the number of Ukrainian forces in the Donbass at 125 thousand people, which is half of the entire personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Since then, the authorities of the people's republics have repeatedly announced its regular increase. In mid-February, the head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, reported that there were 150,000 Ukrainian troops near the demarcation line.
So the Russians were fully justified in moving their soldiers to their border with these nutters... good to have confirmed.
Russia ready to show what true de-communization means for Ukraine - Putin
"Now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call de-communization. Do you want de-communization? Well, this quite suits us. But you must not stop halfway. We are ready to show you what genuine de-communization means for Ukraine,"
Sounds like they are going to completely cut them off from Russia... in every regard.
From what I understand most of the business in the Ukraine still involves Russia, and of course there is also gas transit.
Here come the sanctions. MAX PAIN
You have to remove the weapon from the wound before you clean it and then the healing can start.
Then there will be no reason for Russia to restrain their actions, time for Russia to take all of Ukraine as collateral
Russia has no use for the Ukraine.
But anyway, China is not going to do that. They are at point where they need to take the next step to become the top dog. Growing inside the western system is nearing its limits for China. I'm sure they know it. USA won't let China rule the UN, IMF etc. even if they would denounce Russia.
China and Russia are fighting for a future where there wont be a top dog. They don't want to take Americas crown, they want to retain their independence and do as they please within international law and know that other countries are also limited by those same laws. The US does not recognise anyones laws but its own and even then it breaks them all the time too.
If you watch the video Duran did I posted, they mention how Russia used the claim by Ukraine as an advantage. In reality, everyone including Shoigu knows Ukraine doesn't come close to having the ability. From my understanding, most who did have left nearly 15 years ago or longer. They may use nuclear waste material which is bad but yeah, beyond that, they cannot processes Uranium into Plutonium.
It makes more sense from a Russian perspective to talk up the threat so either the US will squash it, or if it ever eventuates and is used Russia can massively over react.
A nuclear armed MRBM launched from Ukraine at Moscow will be dealt with by their ABM system and the response can be nuclear attacks on all the places in the Ukraine that might have other missiles or where they were made or where more might be stored...
Obviously the west will overreact, but what could they do... start WWIII to defend Ukraines right to start WWIII?
Yup, for Europe and to a lessor degree the US and a much lessor degree for Russia. It has taken so long to decide on them as they know the real risk of shooting themselves in the foot and that is before Russia counter sanctions as it did in 2014.
And that is the cool part... the EU wont cut NSII or kick Russia out of SWIFT, they will do all sorts of other things... likely targeting Putin and his family personally... so Putin can exit Russia from SWIFT himself and make countries that want to trade with Russia join the Russian equivalent and perhaps also join any money transfer systems China might have and allow that to be used by some customers... why not combine Chinese and Russian money transfer systems...
Kill SWIFT by reducing its market... money transfer systems work best if they work everywhere... not working with Russia or China would be a real dent in its appeal... and why join SWIFT and these Russian and Chinese orgs... which means the west will have to fight which normally means you can't join or remain with SWIFT if you also are in the Russian or Chinese systems... which means companies will need to join one or the other and would also need another company in SWIFT... oh so complicated...
What a headache...
If there are sanction and Russia decides to respond then the obvious option they have, as it is not actually a ‘sanction’ and doesn’t break any contracts they might have, is to slow down or stop supplying the nat gas spot market. This will either mean that the Europeans go seriously short of gas and what gas there is will be at crazy prices (incidentally making the US/EU very unpopular with other nat gas buyers round the World also hit with higher prices) or they will be forced back onto Russia’s favoured long term supply contracts, as Hungary with excellent foresight did last September.
I suspect Russia is not going to sell gas on spot markets, and will demand long term contracts or nothing. Spot prices creates uncertainty and increases prices making it no longer cheap, which is not in Russian interests either... they are making other forms of energy like coal look more viable.
Gas is clean and relatively cheap, but the EU, or the US wants to make it expensive so they can make a profit... but what they don't realise is that the EU will stop using gas if it is too expensive so they will essentially destroy the market.
More importantly this will lead to Russia selling its gas to Asia at much lower prices than Asia are used to paying which will likely make it a much better energy choice and increase demand but will destroy US sales because who would pay their prices when there is cheap Russian gas instead.
In other words the same thing that happened in Europe... the EU buys Russian gas because it is cheap and reliable... if they want to give that up... well there are other places they can sell it now.
Talk about enjoying eating that goose liver sandwich, because that golden goose is not going to lay any more eggs now.
Wonder how long it'll be till there's a referendum on joining Russia? Do you reckon there'll be one in either/both republics?
I don't think they will. They certainly don't need to. Independence and an open border with Russia for trade that has been a traditional staple of their economy for the longest time... things are looking up for them economically and militarily... and I am so happy for them.
The EU will not impose sanctions against Russia in connection with the recognition of the DNR and LNR immediately, because it wants to see Moscow's next steps-- European officials
If the EU impose sanctions on Russia for recognising independent states then Russia can impose return sanctions and also impose even more sanctions against the EU for their recognition of Kosovo.
I do not share your enthusiasm about the upcoming war.
Kiev has already stated they can't beat Russia on their own... lets hope they don't even try.
Is this the best these idiots in the Kremlin have come up with, when they presented their ultimatum to NATO?
Kiev has had 8 years to carry out its obligations of the Minsk agreement and has showed no signs of anything except wanting to change their obligations or ignore them.
This is a solution that does not certainly require Russia to level Kiev.
And perhaps now the shelling will stop.
I thought they would act smarter
They are following international law to the letter and have not invaded anyone.
And Putin's delusional if he thinks his grand speech will garner support from Russians. There is no 'just cause' here. We won't be acting in defense.
At this stage do you honestly think he cares what the west thinks?
Russia has been invited into these newly autonomous regions... if they come under fire they can defend themselves and if they see foreign countries attacking locals they can also intervene to help the civilians too.
Ultimately it's just nationalistic/ nostalgic wibble. No one really wins (aside from weapons manufacturers), only losers in this- civilians living in the conflict zone and dead soldiers and their friends/families on both sides.
With Russian forces there with artillery and artillery radar any loose shelling can result in the origin of the shelling being obliterated within seconds of firing their shot... meaning the number of rogue Orcs having a bit of fun on the front line will diminish fairly quickly.
Will be amazing how many Ukrainian schools and churches and hospitals have artillery units attached to them I am sure...
Still no reason to make its misery worse
This is helping a part that has been attacked and shelled for the last few years... pretty sure they wont think this is worse.
I view this as a betrayal of us, and the Ukrainians as well, if this war goes ahead
The only chance of war will be if Kiev resists... and it will be up to them to start it.
If war was inevitable, I would not strike first.
Separation was inevidable... this way it is done peacefully... the question is... will it remain peaceful or do some nazis want to have a go.
I would prepare and make sure I can absorb any blow as well as I could. But I would leave making the decision on going for it to the other guy. Then all would know, that I did not provoke any situation.
While you are waiting for Kiev to do something stupid small groups of idiots on both sides are probably doing provocative things because they are suffering anyway.
I can see a high chance that it will extend past just these republics.
Because it can't be about just them.
It's a NATO vs Russia thing in general and the Ukraine is the battleground.
It isn't just about these republics... HATO just learned that its threats to add Ukraine to their ranks led directly to the loss of a large and productive chunk of the Ukraine... who knows how much ultimately... and more importantly the bits that border Russia which is what they wanted so bad.
Damaged goods... even Russia wont invade to take Kiev...
Problem is we have no mandate for being there, no moral justification.
You were invited by the leadership in fear of its safety from its bigger more powerful neighbour armed by HATO and trying to seize their territory and force its population to learn a foreign language...
Not completely over, but Kiev nevertheless did not violate the Minsk agreements, it just didn't comply with them. There were no Russian soldiers there on a peacekeeping mandate, that got killed in a Ukrainian assault.
This is a solution to an ongoing problem... Kiev wont like it, the US and EU certainly wont like it, but they have had quite some time to impliment what they promised and they have not even started the process.
They can now talk to these regions as independent states and discuss border and customs and other neighbourly shit.
Might even work out for them because they could restore their own trade with Russia... still their main customer... through these regions... so they can pretend to not be trading with Russia any more...
Of course they haven't manage to show much smart so far so i am not hopeful that will change.
Maybe the Russians should now pay the Ukies to pull back to the Oblast borders, we know how cash conscious they can be. A quick $100M and its all sorted with perhaps another $50M for Mariupol. Imagine how far $1000 a head for every soldier would go in current Ukraine? Bribery is an underused weapon on the battlefield.
That is not as silly as it sounds... check them for swastika tatoos and offer to let them move their families into the region and give them a decent job with some company selling stuff in the Russian market... a lot would probably think that is their best choice...
I think if Zelensky leaves for Lvov, then Poroshenko will come to power in Kiev.
If he does leave there is that risk and there are probably other vultures circling too... but will they all be anti Russian... maybe the military might release those pro Russian politicians under house arrest... who can tell... it all depends what the people with money want.... a lot of their oligarchs probably want a return to access to the Russian market because the EU market was not welcoming...
This is only but one small, longgggggg overdue step, on what should be a series of steps that end with the takeover of Kiev, to end the fucking nightmare.
No.
Once they secure these regions and any other regions that want to join Russia is going to leave the rest of the Ukraine to itself.
I personally think Ukrainian talk of nuclear weapons drove Putin to act, but nothing has changed... Russia will help defend these new regions, but wont invade the Ukraine.
Of course if the legal boundaries of these regions are held by Ukrainian forces then things get interesting because they are occupying land illegally... which would not be an invasion of the Ukraine, but a liberation of the relevant new republic... all based on solid international law of course.
Will it be more costly now in 2022 than in 2014, were Putin and cadre had put resistance to the coup right then and there? Absolutely... it's gonna be more costly.
Not Russias problem. The rest of the Ukraine needs to decide what it wants to do and Russian tanks and rifles wont help. They might have a civil war, which means they will need to pull their troops back from these new republics, so Russia might even encourage that for that effect but I doubt they will get involved at all.
Civil wars are always messy and wasteful... hopefully they just call early new elections and let the remaining people decide... but what chance real democracy in that hellhole?
But the overarching objective is more important that hesitation... hesitation and inaction leads to defeat.
It is over... HATO and EU can have the rest of the Ukraine... the most Russian bits are saved... and more may join in the coming days... but Putin wont fight to add the people who murdered people for speaking Russian by burning them to death into the Russian federation... they jumped ship and at the same time burned their bridges... they have made their bed and now they can lie in it.... eating crow...
Here is to hoping there is a massive second act coming to whatever shit the U.S/UK cook up. There is no turning back from this now. Russia has finally acknowledged its enemy in its full horror as during the cold war.
To that statement all I can say is that the west got what it has been pushing these last 30 years for.... the way you handled things there could be no other outcome... Russia is never going to be your bitch... it could have been your best friend and most powerful ally but that ship has sailed.
But lets just blame Putin...
Russia has challenged the security of an American client state.
At any one time Cuba and Iran and Venezuela and Syria and Iraq and Afghanistan and Pakistan and a dozen other countries were American allies and client states for various reasons... and then suddenly they weren't...
Quite recently:
Yeah should borough in about 2000 peacekeepers in 2014 and ended that bullshit right than and there. What I don’t understand is how fsb even let it happen in the first place.
It is very simple... it comes down to international law... Russia had no more right to invade the Ukraine to keep the peace than they did to invade Hong Kong to keep the peace... there was no chance of either happening.
Foolishness, fear, miscalculation, hesitation, bad advice... all of the above
Respect for international law... if the Ukraine wants to be a US puppet then who is Russia to stop them?
Some Ukrainians did say no and Russia was supporting them by trying to get Kiev to negotiate peacefully with them for a solution... 8 years later nothing has happened so now Russia is moving the process along that had clearly stalled and was going backwards.
All while fully observing international law.
They had ample warning with the Orange revolution. Enough time to clean house and play a strong hand.
Perhaps they didn't see Kiev as something they needed to keep...
It seems they still don't.
What will "the collective west" do next?
They have clearly given up on Minsk and also given up on the west to want peace and stability in Europe.
The west might not even impose sanctions because they are following international law.
How will Russia respond to the moves made by "the collective west?
Any sanctions will likely be matched, but perhaps this change might result in further action... perhaps extra sanctions from the victim of illegal sanctions.
They might stop all spot sales of gas... so contracts only and 10 year minimum or no sale. Set the price so the gas is relatively cheap so they have every reason to agree, but alternative sources will struggle to be competitive.
Be open to them not buying any more Russian gas and don't do anything to try to get them to change... just sell it to Asia and Africa...
How will China respond to this?
China will appreciate the intelligence of thwarting the wests attempt at a stalemate without any invasions or attacks, and will probably want to have a chat with Russia for advice on handling the west...
To be honest, I hope that this will stop here and now, I am not a vampire and I don't any more blood in the region. After 8 years of violence, it deserves peace and quiet. If things go south, I hope that civilians will be unharmed, I just hope Ukrainians also moved them away, but somehow I doubt that.
It is the best option going forward for these people being shelled, I am sure they will be overjoyed... as will friends and family further south on that penninsula that also separated from the nutters in Kiev.
The test will be how will Kiev respond to what happens next... new borders and relations with a new neighbour.
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