Just be ready in case NATO gets stupid, for nuclear showdown
Other than that operation proceeds as planned
Recon by force , heavies coming soon
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Orlan wrote:
My friend is in that unit, his sister know nothing yet about him. 5th day now, base clerks said he has been deployed. We suspect he was in first landing party.
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lyle6 wrote:meanwhile, in the real world:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMm_3hwXEAA50je?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Somebody bring out the polar planeometer here, but it seems like the Russians are sitting on 3 Crimeas worth of territory - 100 km^2 more or less (excluding Donbass and Crimea itself of course).
Someone mentioned that they only are using a 1st echelon of 70k dudes - if this is remotely true, then this tempo is even more insane.
Those suicidal thunder runs with light vehicles now makes some sense - the whole thing is a huge recon by force.
i think the idea is to hit as much settlements as possible - ascertain the level of hostilities, and generally just keep on advancing until they outpace their logistics.
Leave the fighting to follow on forces who are bringing in the heavy guns and armor.
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flamming_python wrote:Orlan wrote:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497975096035717126?t=YIzO_xNq4I3bwBDfeNd9wg&s=19
Destroyed Osa, BTR, Uragan...
Russia doesn't even operate Osa and Uragan vehicles, or barely. I think these vehicles are Ukrainian.
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Karl Haushofer wrote:
How do you define "victory"?
The core problem - the problem that Russians don't seem to understand - is that Ukrainians don't like Russia. They don't want to be integrated to Russia and don't want to be in union with Russia. They want to be with the West. It is their choice and they have a right to make that choice. Even if it hurts Russia. It is their own country.
The longer Russia stays there the more Ukrainian people will hate Russia. Some of here want Russia to start taking out key infrastructure of Ukraine like electricity and water pumping stations. For what? To make lives of Ukrainians a living misery?
Russia has a weak hand in Ukraine. The country was lost decades ago and it is too late to try to take it back.
Not really
It can be taken back only by force, and the maintenance costs will be too high for Russia.
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kvs wrote:lyle6 wrote:meanwhile, in the real world:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMm_3hwXEAA50je?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Somebody bring out the polar planeometer here, but it seems like the Russians are sitting on 3 Crimeas worth of territory - 100 km^2 more or less (excluding Donbass and Crimea itself of course).
Someone mentioned that they only are using a 1st echelon of 70k dudes - if this is remotely true, then this tempo is even more insane.
Those suicidal thunder runs with light vehicles now makes some sense - the whole thing is a huge recon by force.
i think the idea is to hit as much settlements as possible - ascertain the level of hostilities, and generally just keep on advancing until they outpace their logistics.
Leave the fighting to follow on forces who are bringing in the heavy guns and armor.
I think that there is actually no need for a heavy second wave. The Ukrian "army" is a paper tiger that was gutted by the
Banderites starting in the 1990s. They did not want it to be a force to keep Ukraine sane. This is motivated for sure by
the US experience in running military juntas in Latin America and other parts of the world. In fact, the Russian army is what
allowed the corny Yeltsin regime to be deposed in 1999. There was no shootout at the presidential palace like in some banana
republic, but Yeltsin's appointment of Putin, the cleanup of Chechnya, and the orderly resignation of Yeltsin prove that there
was a patriotic coup.
The war in Banderastan is against irregulars of the neo-nazi variety. This sort of war is messy and is not best fought with
heavy armour. It needs the organization of loyal militias (whatever your want to call them). The locals have to squeeze out
the disease infesting their land.
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Arkanghelsk wrote:This is looking like beginning of WW3
Nukes give Russia options in ww2 it didnt have, tactical nukes should start being armed
Arkanghelsk wrote:This is looking like beginning of WW3
Nukes give Russia options in ww2 it didnt have, tactical nukes should start being armed
flamming_python wrote:PapaDragon wrote:caveat emptor wrote:Guys, like it or not, wars getting lost often doesn't have much to do w fighting but with politics and strategy. If Putin, decided to inflict so much harm on Ru economy, at the time, they could get extra profits and use ot to invest back for a military incursion in Ukraine, then do it right and don't go in with a prayer. I would understand to give them 2-3 days to see reaction of Ukrainian gov and army. So far, they don't show willingness to cooperate or army to defect. Stop wasting young lifes and do it properly. At least, they have tools to do it. After full blown war of a week, i think Ukrainians will start to think differently.
Ukrainians know they will always lose in open area conflicts so they will always prefer hit and run amd urban fighting. Even Kadyrov commented om second point today.
Agreed with this, pussyfooting will get you nowhere and I said so way before this was even close to starting
Either do it right or don't do it at all
By softballing this Russia has only made the Ukrainians more determined and those occasional wins and ambushes by Ukrainian Military have only made Zelensky more feisty and less likely to agree to anything other than Russian pullout
Russia is on the clock now instead of Ukraine and they are already late
Any use of such massive force will horrify the Russian population to a point beyond which they're prepared to tolerate. Over a war they already were not asked about nor would have ever supported if put to vote. You seem to forget that millions upon millions of Russians have relatives in the Ukraine or are part Ukrainian.
My dad is from the Ukraine, albeit he's Jewish rather than Ukrainian as such. Right now I'm talking to an old friend who lives in Kiev, and advising her about what to do and how to act in this shit situation. It's personal for me, and it's personal for a lot of people.
It's also not going to win the propaganda and narrative battle. Right now there are people in the Kherson region complaining about the actions of the SBU who are turning up back in their towns and shooting up the place. People see that Russian forces are friendlier, and 'theirs' are on crack.
So I can see the dezombification process having some effect. But not nearly to the extent to change anything. Like I say, Putin needs to pull a bunny out of the hat right now. Otherwise he'd at maximum be left with a new Sumy People's Republic, Kharkov People's Republic, and Zaporozhie People's Republic, and with huge amounts of sanctions in exchange, the severing of all economic ties to Europe, and a decimated approval rating.
ArgentinaGuard wrote:war with Ukraine was inevitable, it cannot be under NATO. It would be the end of Russia.
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AlfaT8 wrote:Welp, i have been watching long enough, so now it's my time to shine.
Where are we now.
Russia have made a massive move in on Ukraine, as they should, since negotiations had been going nowhere for almost 8 years, and recent comments from European leaders simply made things far worse (in particular that of the new German chancellor), it made it clear that there was no point in negotiating with U.S puppets, and the days of strong European leadership are dead and gone.
The only odd exception being Viktor Orbán and maybe Macron, but Macron was despite his good talk, he was not capable of putting his words into action, all bark and no bite.
This coupled with the stupidity of Zelenski during the Munich conference, as he threatened Ukraine Nuclear status, now obviously Ukr. not gonna make it's own nukes, but would more than likely host U.S nukes instead.
And to top it all off zeli decided to test Russia's resolve by launching an attack on the L/DPR.
Leading to Russia's recognition of the republics, and finally the decision to invade.
It has been a very eventful few days, in my case i was waiting for the fog of war to clear up a bit before posting.
In 2 days the Russian's are already near kiev, we also had some stupidity by Zeli with whether or not was going to negotiate, creating this weird pause in the Russian assault, which the west had translated to "Brave Ukr. holding the Russian bear back".
What surprised me is how this assault is being carried out, the Russian's are clearly holding back, not taking targeting only military assets and basses, while ignoring the general civilian infrastructure, in particular the comm infrastructure, which i see as a mistake to leave it intact.
what's even more strange is the number deployed for this assault, around 50000, a far-cry from the U.S's 190000 during the Iraq war.
And then there's the conflicting news about fighting in Kiev, and the repelling of Russian assaults or the Kiev civilians basically shooting each other, since there is a lot scores to be settled, since the 2014 "revolution".
I just don't see a real assault happening on Kiev, while negotiations are underway.
I will say this Zeli has been an amazing U.S asset, he definitely has his millions and house in the Cayman islands locked, i mean this guy has delivered the Western Neo-con/libs everything they could have hoped for and more.
Now with the Russian threat back in action, the hawks can now whip Europe back in line, and right back into the western fold.
That way they can truly bring the West back to glory, nevermind the crazy ideology that's devouring the West from within.
From that we come to the economic side of things, which is gonna get really interesting now.
In the case of Russia itself, i don't expect to many problems, the Russian's are very familiar with economic hardship, from their great grandparents in WW2 to their current parents who suffered the 90s.
The more interesting bit is now that the Western financial institutions have finally shown their teeth, what will the response of the non-western world be?
Russia and China have spent 20yrs or so laying down the ground work for a de-dollarized world, and now we are going to soon see the results of all that work.
Where will the chips fall, who is going to align with who now that the financial world has been brought to this.
Things are going to get very interesting.
kvs wrote:BP is signalling that it will sell off its 20% stake in Rossneft. Good riddance!
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